Objective: To analyze the incidence trend of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2024, and predict the incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving the prevention and control strategies of colorectal cancer. Methods: Colorectal cancer incidence data from 2010 to 2024 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System. The crude incidence of colorectal cancer was calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010 (Chinese standardized rate) and the Segi's world standard population (world standardized rate). The trend of colorectal cancer incidence from 2010 to 2024 was analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). An exponential smoothing state space model with trigonometric seasonality, box-cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend and seasonal components (TBATS) was established to forecast the crude incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027. Results: There were 10 726 new cases of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District from 2010 to 2024. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer were 59.25/100 000, 38.62/100 000 and 29.50/100 000, respectively. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer in males were 70.56/100 000, 44.44/100 000and 35.58/100 000, respectively, while those in females were 48.37/100 000, 32.69/100 000 and 23.70/100 000, respectively. The Chinese standardized rate of colorectal cancer was significantly higher in males than in females (P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in males, females and the whole population showed upward trends from 2010 to 2024 (AAPC=4.916%, 3.795% and 4.442%, all P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the groups of 0-<35, 35-<50, 50-<75 and ≥75 years were 1.75/100 000, 19.86/100 000, 112.28/100 000 and 272.99/100 000, respectively, showing an increasing trend with age (P<0.05). From 2010 to 2024, the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the ≥75 years group showed an increasing trend (AAPC=4.470%, P<0.05), while no significant trend was observed in other age groups (all P>0.05). TBATS model demonstrated good fitting (predictive) performance, indicating a year-by-year increase in the crude incidence of colorectal cancer across the whole population from 2025 to 2027, with an estimated rate reaching 70.45/100 000 in 2027. Conclusions The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2024, and it is predicted to continue to increase from 2025 to 2027. Males and the elderly are the key populations for colorectal cancer prevention and control.

ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence rate and mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and their changing trends among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2017 to 2023, so as to provide references for formulating policies related to AMI prevention. MethodsThe morbidity and mortality data of AMI among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease and Death Cause Monitoring System. Software such as Excel 2019, SPSS 25.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 were used to calculate the incidence rate, mortality, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of AMI. ResultsFrom 2017 to 2023, the average annual crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate using China standard population (ASIRC), and the age-standardized incidence rate using World standard population (ASIRW) of AMI in Xiaoshan District were 48.25/100 000, 29.14/100 000, and 21.64/100 000, respectively, and, from which the AAPCs were 5.495%, 6.010%, and 6.533%, respectively, all showing an upward trend. The average annual crude mortality rate, the age-standardized mortality rate using China standard population (ASMRC), and the age-standardized mortality rate using World standard population (ASMRW) were 11.76/100 000, 6.52/100 000, and 4.71/100 000, respectively, from which the AAPCs were -9.669%, -10.433% and -9.615%, respectively, all showing a downward trend. The average annual crude incidence rate of AMI was higher in males (65.87/100 000) than that in females (31.31/100 000). Moreover, the average annual crude mortality rate of AMI was higher in males (14.08/100 000) than that in females (9.52/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant (all P<0.001) .After age grouping, the crude incidence rate of AMI among the residents aged 35-, 45-, 55-, and 65- years in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 showed an upward trend over time, with AAPCs of 16.993%, 17.149%, 8.523%, and 5.002%, respectively. While the crude mortality rate in residents aged 35-, 75-, and 85-102 years showed an decreasing trend over time, with AAPCs of -23.977%, -15.467%, and -17.415%, respectively, but there was no statistically significant difference in the trends in incidence rate and mortality of other age groups (all P>0.05). ConclusionThe situation of AMI prevention and control among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District is not optimistic, and targeted measures should be strengthened for the male residents aged ≥35 years old.

ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of incidence, mortality rate and survival rate of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide a basis for improving breast cancer prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District from 2014 to 2023 were collected through Zhejiang Chronic Disease Monitoring and Management System. The crude incidence and mortality rate, as well as the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate using both the 2000 Chinese standard population (abbreviated as “Chinese ASR”) and Segi’s 1960 world standard population (“world ASR”) were calculated. Joinpoint model was employed to analyze the trends in incidence and mortality rate, while R software (version 4.1.1) was used to analyze the 5-year relative survival rate to assess the survival status of breast cancer patients. ResultsFrom 2014 to 2023, the crude incidence rate, the Chinese age-standardized incidence rate (ASIRC) and the world age-standardized incidence rate (ASIRW) of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District were from 70.00/100 000 to 128.35/100 000, from 52.92/100 000 to 94.29/100 000, and from 40.82/100 000 to 72.07/100 000, respectively, with the corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 5.80%, 4.63% and 4.71%, respectively, showing a significant increasing trend over the decade (all P<0.05). The incidence rate of breast cancer among people aged 30‒<40 years old or 50‒<75 years old exhibited a significant increase trend from 2014 to 2023 (all P<0.05). The crude mortality rate of breast cancer in female was from 7.75/100 000 to 12.34/100 000, the ASMRC of breast cancer in female was from 4.62/100 000 to 7.53/100 000, and the ASMRW of breast cancer in female was from 3.58/100 000 to 5.71/100 000, and the AAPC had no statistically significance. However, the mortality rate of breast cancer was increased with age (P<0.001). The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate of breast cancer in female in Xiaoshan District was significantly higher in the 2016‒2018 period (94.46%) compared to the 2013‒2015 period (91.02%) (P<0.05). ConclusionFrom 2014 to 2023, the annual incidence of breast cancer among women with registered residence in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province showed an increasing trend, while the change in mortality rate was not statistically significant. The 5-year survival rate of breast cancer in female was at a high level, indicating notable achievements in comprehensive prevention and control efforts. It is essential to continue to strengthen public awareness campaigns for breast cancer prevention and control, control breast cancer risk factors, actively carry out early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer among target groups, and improve the quality of life for breast cancer patients.

Objective To investigate the diagnostic potential of combining 3.0T magnetic resonance imag-ing(MRI)T2 mapping sequences with serum nesfatin-1 levels for detecting early osteoarthritis(OA)in elderly knees.Methods 97 elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis(OA group)and 52 elderly individuals undergoing physical examinations(control group)were recruited from a hospital between May 2023 and May 2024.Based on X-ray findings,the OA group was further divided into an early-stage subgroup and a non-early-stage subgroup.All participants underwent 3.0T MRI T2 mapping sequence scans to measure the T2 values in the knee cartilage region,and serum nesfatin-1 levels were assessed.Differences in these indicators were compared between groups.Additionally,a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was constructed to evaluate the diagnostic value of these parameters for early-stage knee OA in elderly individuals.Results Among 97 elderly patients with knee OA,35 cases were classified into the early-stage group,and 62 cases were categorized into the non-early-stage group.The T2 values in five cartilage regions of the knee and serum nesfatin-1 levels were significantly higher in the OA group compared to the control group(P<0.05).Moreover,these values were significantly lower in the early-stage group than in the non-early-stage group(P<0.05).The areas under the curve(AUC)for diagnosing early-stage OA using T2 values in knee cartilage regions and serum nesfatin-1 levels ranged from 0.774 to 0.871.Notably,the AUC for combined diagnosis reached 0.939(P<0.05).Conclusion 3.0T MRI using the T2 mapping sequence in combination with serum nesfatin-1 level detection demonstrates high diagnostic value for early OA in elderly patients with knee involvement.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the current status and existing issues of hospital-associated infection manage-ment in non-public medical institutions,so as to provide data for the formulation of hospital-associated infec-tion management policies and the construction of a quality evaluation system for hospital-associated infection man-agement in non-public medical institutions.METHODS A qualitative research method was employed.In Dec.2023,semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 directors of hospital-associated infection management depart-ments in primary,secondary and tertiary non-public medical institutions.The interview data were coded and ana-lyzed by Nvivo 12.0 software to refine themes.RESULTS Three themes were refined:the organizational system for hospital-associated infection management in non-public medical institutions had been basically established,but the division of functions and responsibilities was not yet fully clear,hospital-associated infection management had achieved certain results,including collaborating with other departments to standardize and implement infection control measures,enhancing staff awareness of infection control,and promoting the establishment of organization-al systems.There were issues in infection control works such as insufficient funding,personnel allocation not meeting requirements,and difficulties in implementing infection control measures.The most urgent assis-tance needed was to address the training and professional title promotion for full-time and part-time infection con-trol personnel.CONCLUSION Non-public medical institutions should strengthen staffing and training,enhance the pro-fessional capabilities of infection control personnel,and establish hospital-associated infection management standards that are tailored to the characteristics of non-public medical institutions at all levels.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the current status and existing issues of hospital-associated infection manage-ment in non-public medical institutions,so as to provide data for the formulation of hospital-associated infec-tion management policies and the construction of a quality evaluation system for hospital-associated infection man-agement in non-public medical institutions.METHODS A qualitative research method was employed.In Dec.2023,semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 directors of hospital-associated infection management depart-ments in primary,secondary and tertiary non-public medical institutions.The interview data were coded and ana-lyzed by Nvivo 12.0 software to refine themes.RESULTS Three themes were refined:the organizational system for hospital-associated infection management in non-public medical institutions had been basically established,but the division of functions and responsibilities was not yet fully clear,hospital-associated infection management had achieved certain results,including collaborating with other departments to standardize and implement infection control measures,enhancing staff awareness of infection control,and promoting the establishment of organization-al systems.There were issues in infection control works such as insufficient funding,personnel allocation not meeting requirements,and difficulties in implementing infection control measures.The most urgent assis-tance needed was to address the training and professional title promotion for full-time and part-time infection con-trol personnel.CONCLUSION Non-public medical institutions should strengthen staffing and training,enhance the pro-fessional capabilities of infection control personnel,and establish hospital-associated infection management standards that are tailored to the characteristics of non-public medical institutions at all levels.

Objective To investigate the diagnostic potential of combining 3.0T magnetic resonance imag-ing(MRI)T2 mapping sequences with serum nesfatin-1 levels for detecting early osteoarthritis(OA)in elderly knees.Methods 97 elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis(OA group)and 52 elderly individuals undergoing physical examinations(control group)were recruited from a hospital between May 2023 and May 2024.Based on X-ray findings,the OA group was further divided into an early-stage subgroup and a non-early-stage subgroup.All participants underwent 3.0T MRI T2 mapping sequence scans to measure the T2 values in the knee cartilage region,and serum nesfatin-1 levels were assessed.Differences in these indicators were compared between groups.Additionally,a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was constructed to evaluate the diagnostic value of these parameters for early-stage knee OA in elderly individuals.Results Among 97 elderly patients with knee OA,35 cases were classified into the early-stage group,and 62 cases were categorized into the non-early-stage group.The T2 values in five cartilage regions of the knee and serum nesfatin-1 levels were significantly higher in the OA group compared to the control group(P<0.05).Moreover,these values were significantly lower in the early-stage group than in the non-early-stage group(P<0.05).The areas under the curve(AUC)for diagnosing early-stage OA using T2 values in knee cartilage regions and serum nesfatin-1 levels ranged from 0.774 to 0.871.Notably,the AUC for combined diagnosis reached 0.939(P<0.05).Conclusion 3.0T MRI using the T2 mapping sequence in combination with serum nesfatin-1 level detection demonstrates high diagnostic value for early OA in elderly patients with knee involvement.

Objective: To understand the survival status and influencing factors of first-ever stroke patients, so as to provide evidence for improving the quality of life and prognosis of stroke patients. Methods: Demographic information, medical history, smoking history, and alcohol consumption history of newly diagnosed stroke cases first reported in 2017 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease Surveillance and Management System. Patients were followed up for 5 years, with stroke death as the outcome event. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors affecting survival time of first-ever stroke patients were identified using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results: A total of 3 886 patients first-ever stroke patients were included, the cases of cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and stroke unspecified as to whether it was hemorrhagic or ischemic (unspecified) accounted for 86.93%, 11.45%, 1.06% and 0.57%, respectively. There were 2 047 males (52.68%) and 1 839 females (47.32%), with a mean onset age of (72.01±11.61) years. By the end of the follow-up on December 31, 2022, 906 patients died from stroke, with a median follow-up time of 62.00 (interquartile range, 35.00) months. The 1-year survival rate was 87.35% (95%CI: 86.30%-88.41%), the 3-year survival rate was 82.11% (95%CI: 80.88%-83.34%), and the 5-year survival rate was 76.64% (95%CI: 75.26%-78.02%), respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that onset age of ≥75 years (HR=5.543, 95%CI: 3.822-8.039), being treated at township-level hospitals (HR=5.934, 95%CI: 4.027-8.743), history of hypertension (HR=1.566, 95%CI: 1.317-1.863), history of chronic ischemic heart disease (HR=1.611, 95%CI: 1.362-1.906), smoking history (HR=1.455, 95%CI: 1.190-1.778), alcohol consumption history (HR=1.323, 95%CI: 1.067-1.641), stroke subtype of intracerebral hemorrhage (HR=3.442, 95%CI: 2.923-4.053) and unspecified (HR=6.843, 95%CI: 4.353-10.756) were associated with higher mortality risk among first-ever stroke patients. Conclusion The 5-year survival rate of first-ever stroke patients was 76.64%, which was influenced by age of onset, hospital level for diagnosis and treatment, stroke subtype, medical history, smoking and alcohol consumption.

Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of the malignant tumor control strategy. Methods: Data on mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022 were collected through Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System, and the cause of death composition ratio and crude mortality were calculated. The mortality of malignant tumors was standardized by the population of the sixth National Population Census in China in 2010. The trend in mortality of malignant tumors were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC). Results: There were 13 301 malignant tumor deaths reported in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022, accounting for 31.26% of the total cause of death and ranking the first among the causes of death. The crude mortality was 186.36/105 and standardized mortality was 106.63/105. There was no significant trend in the crude mortality of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022 (P>0.05), while the standardized mortality showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.409%, P<0.05). The crude and standardized mortality of malignant tumors were higher in men than in women (241.40/105 vs. 133.37/105; 132.66/105 vs. 79.35/105; both P<0.05). There was no obvious trend in the crude mortality of malignant tumors in men (P>0.05), and the standardized mortality showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, P<0.05). While there was no obvious trend in the crude and standardized mortality of malignant tumors in women (P>0.05). The crude mortality of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a decline among residents at ages of 15 to 44 years and 65 years and older (AAPC=-3.933% and -2.413%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality of malignant tumors was higher in men than in women among residents at ages of 0 to 14 years, 45 to 64 years and 65 years and older (all P<0.05). The five most common causes of death included lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer and pancreatic cancer, accounting for 66.96% of all malignant tumors. The crude mortality of colorectal cancer from 2017 to 2022 showed a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=2.815%, P<0.05). Conclusions The standardized mortality of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2022. Management of malignant tumors should be given a high priority among men at ages of 45 years and older, and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer and pancreatic cancer were leading causes of death.

Objective: To investigate the mortality, probability of premature death and trends due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods: The deaths of the four diseases in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 were collected from Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System. The crude mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the attainment of probability of premature death due to the four diseases was evaluated using the targets of probability of premature death control in 2025 and 2030. Results: Totally 36 130 deaths due to the four diseases were reported in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 445.20/105 and 237.81/105, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.427% and -4.051%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death decreased from 9.99% to 7.82%, (AAPC=-4.123%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality of malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, -4.999%, and -6.024%, all P<0.05), while there was no significant trend in the standardized mortality of diabetes (AAPC=-0.847%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.167%, P<0.05), while there was no significant trends seen in the probability of premature death due to diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=0.638%, -5.250% and -2.022%, all P>0.05). The average probability of premature death due to the four diseases decreased by 4.00% each year, and decreased by 6.64% in 2025 and 5.42% in 2030 as predicted, which were both lower than the target values of 7.99% and 6.99%. Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to the four diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021, with the probability of premature death of malignant tumors decreased significantly. It is predicted that the probability of premature death of the four diseases can reach the target in 2025 and 2030.