1.Analyses of comorbidity patterns of chronic metabolic diseases among residents aged 35‒75 years in Nantong City, Jiangsu Province
Yuqi WANG ; Jie HUANG ; Bo CAI ; Yarong HAN ; Ling LIN ; Xingxing FANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(3):187-192
ObjectiveTo analyze the comorbidity patterns of chronic metabolic diseases and their influencing factors among residents aged 35‒75 years old in Nantong City of Jiangsu Province, and to provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of comorbidities. MethodsThe permanent residents aged 35‒75 years from the Comprehensive Prevention and Control Project of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases in Nantong City from 2021 to 2024 were selected as the research subjects. Clustering analysis and association rule were used to investigate the comorbidity patterns of chronic metabolic diseases, and their influencing factors were identified through logistic regression analyses. ResultsThe prevalence of comorbidity of chronic metabolic diseases among residents aged 35‒75 years in Nantong City was 47.40%. Among comorbidity patterns based on disease counts, the prevalence of hypertension+dyslipidemia was highest in binary comorbidity patterns (6.25%), while that of hypertension+dyslipidemia+obesity was highest in ternary comorbidity patterns (4.01%). Association rules showed that in both binary and ternary comorbidity patterns, the confidence level was highest for obesity+hypertension (72.70%) and obesity+dyslipidemia+hypertension (74.54%). Renal insufficiency formed an independent cluster in cluster analyses. Logistic regression analyses revealed that, compared with the non-comorbidity group, males (OR=2.22, 95%CI: 1.69‒2.91), advanced age (45‒54 years, OR=1.38, 95%CI: 1.02‒1.88; 55‒64 years, OR=1.59, 95%CI: 1.14‒2.23; 65‒75 years, OR=2.34, 95%CI: 1.58‒3.47), and low physical activity (OR=1.26, 95%CI: 1.10‒1.65) were influencing factors for metabolic disease comorbidity. ConclusionIn the comorbidity patterns of chronic metabolic diseases among residents aged 35‒75 years in Nantong City, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia interact with each other. Individuals with obesity are more prone to diseases such as hypertension and dyslipidemia. Prevention and control of chronic metabolic diseases should be strengthened for males, individuals with low physical activity and advanced age.
2.RXRα modulates hepatic stellate cell activation and liver fibrosis by targeting CaMKKβ-AMPKα axis.
Lijun CAI ; Meimei YIN ; Shuangzhou PENG ; Fen LIN ; Liangliang LAI ; Xindao ZHANG ; Lei XIE ; Chuanying WANG ; Huiying ZHOU ; Yunfeng ZHAN ; Gulimiran ALITONGBIEKE ; Baohuan LIAN ; Zhibin SU ; Tenghui LIU ; Yuqi ZHOU ; Zongxi LI ; Xiaohui CHEN ; Qi ZHAO ; Ting DENG ; Lulu CHEN ; Jingwei SU ; Luoyan SHENG ; Ying SU ; Ling-Juan ZHANG ; Fu-Quan JIANG ; Xiao-Kun ZHANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(7):3611-3631
Hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) are the primary fibrogenic cells in the liver, and their activation plays a crucial role in the development and progression of hepatic fibrosis. Here, we report that retinoid X receptor-alpha (RXRα), a unique member of the nuclear receptor superfamily, is a key modulator of HSC activation and liver fibrosis. RXRα exerts its effects by modulating calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase kinase β (CaMKKβ)-mediated activation of AMP-activated protein kinase-alpha (AMPKα). In addition, we demonstrate that K-80003, which binds RXRα by a unique mechanism, effectively suppresses HSC activation, proliferation, and migration, thereby inhibiting liver fibrosis in the CCl4 and amylin liver NASH (AMLN) diet animal models. The effect is mediated by AMPKα activation, promoting mitophagy in HSCs. Mechanistically, K-80003 activates AMPKα by inducing RXRα to form condensates with CaMKKβ and AMPKα via a two-phase process. The formation of RXRα condensates is driven by its N-terminal intrinsic disorder region and requires phosphorylation by CaMKKβ. Our results reveal a crucial role of RXRα in liver fibrosis regulation through modulating mitochondrial activities in HSCs. Furthermore, they suggest that K-80003 and related RXRα modulators hold promise as therapeutic agents for fibrosis-related diseases.
3.Application Value of an AI-based Imaging Feature Parameter Model for Predicting the Malignancy of Part-solid Pulmonary Nodule.
Mingzhi LIN ; Yiming HUI ; Bin LI ; Peilin ZHAO ; Zhizhong ZHENG ; Zhuowen YANG ; Zhipeng SU ; Yuqi MENG ; Tieniu SONG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(4):281-290
BACKGROUND:
Lung cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide and a major cause of cancer-related deaths. Early-stage lung cancer is often manifested as pulmonary nodules, and accurate assessment of the malignancy risk is crucial for prolonging survival and avoiding overtreatment. This study aims to construct a model based on image feature parameters automatically extracted by artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate its effectiveness in predicting the malignancy of part-solid nodule (PSN).
METHODS:
This retrospective study analyzed 229 PSN from 222 patients who underwent pulmonary nodule resection at Lanzhou University Second Hospital between October 2020 and February 2025. According to pathological results, 45 cases of benign lesions and precursor glandular lesion were categorized into the non-malignant group, and 184 cases of pulmonary malignancies were categorized into the malignant group. All patients underwent preoperative chest computed tomography (CT), and AI software was used to extract imaging feature parameters. Univariate analysis was used to screen significant variables; variance inflation factor (VIF) was calculated to exclude highly collinear variables, and LASSO regression was further applied to identify key features. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors. Based on the selected variables, five models were constructed: Logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and support vector machine (SVM). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the performance of the models.
RESULTS:
The independent risk factors for the malignancy of PSN include roughness (ngtdm), dependence variance (gldm), and short run low gray-level emphasis (glrlm). Logistic regression achieved area under the curves ( AUCs) of 0.86 and 0.89 in the training and testing sets, respectively, showing good performance. XGBoost had AUCs of 0.78 and 0.77, respectively, demonstrating relatively balanced performance, but with lower accuracy. SVM showed an AUC of 0.93 in the training set, which decreased to 0.80 in the testing set, indicating overfitting. LightGBM performed excellently in the training set with an AUC of 0.94, but its performance declined in the testing set, with an AUC of 0.88. In contrast, random forest demonstrated stable performance in both the training and testing sets, with AUCs of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively, exhibiting high stability and excellent generalizability.
CONCLUSIONS
The random forest model constructed based on independent risk factors demonstrated the best performance in predicting the malignancy of PSN and could provide effective auxiliary predictions for clinicians, supporting individualized treatment decisions.
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Humans
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Male
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Female
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Lung Neoplasms/pathology*
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Middle Aged
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Retrospective Studies
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Artificial Intelligence
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Aged
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Tomography, X-Ray Computed
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Adult
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Solitary Pulmonary Nodule/diagnostic imaging*
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ROC Curve
4.Clinical observation and insights on pathological changes during "deep cervical lymphaticovenous anastomosis+" in elderly patients with cognitive impairment
Xiaoju ZHENG ; Haijun LI ; Jinming ZHANG ; Fang LI ; Baoshan WANG ; Yuqi ZHENG ; Wenbin SONG ; Yan WANG ; Xinhong WANG ; Qian LIN ; Shuang DU ; Dengwen ZHANG ; Rongguo YANG ; Peng HE ; Zhe CHANG ; Yujiao LI ; Linjuan WU
Chinese Journal of Microsurgery 2025;48(3):268-276
Objective:To investigate intraoperative pathological findings and the interventional effects of "deep cervical lymphaticovenous anastomosis+" (dcLVA+) on deep cervical lymphatic drainage as well as the blood flow of carotid artery and jugular vein in elderly patients with cognitive impairment, and to put forward the thoughts based on the findings from the surgery.Methods:Between May 2024 and December 2024, retrospective analysis of Microsurgery Hospital, Fengcheng Hospital, Xi'an Medical College performed dcLVA+ between the deep cervical lymphatics or lymph nodes and jugular veins in 50 elderly patients with cognitive impairment (19 males and 31 females, aged 55-88 years with 69.94 years in average). Nine patients were found with Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) score at 1 (mild), 7 with CDR score at 2 (moderate) and 34 with CDR score at 3 (severe). Intraoperative observations based on literature reviews had identified anatomical relationships between the lymphatic sacs containing cervical lymphatic chain and the carotid sheath. The lymph node count, size, distribution, thickness of fat tissue and conditions of lymphatic vessels were documented. Ultrasound was used to compare the blood flow of carotid artery and jugular vein as well as the cross-sectional areas at the planes of hyoid and cricoid cartilage before and after the closure of incisions under anaesthesia in 39 patients. Correlation analyses for Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCa), Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Agitation behavior score before and 1 week after surgery were performed using Spearman's correlation and Wilcoxon paired tests. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Postoperative follow-ups were conducted via the visit of outpatient clinic and WeChat and telephone interviews. Results:In surgery, the cervical lymphatic chain was found running within an almost enclosed sac surrounding the carotid sheath. There were enlarged lymph nodes, increased fat deposition, lymphatic dilation or fibrosis in the sac. The preoperative blood flow in the carotid artery at the planes of hyoid and cricoid cartilage in the 39 patients was recorded at 150.52 ml/min±40.33 ml/min and 358.29 ml/min±129.30 ml/min, while that in the jugular vein was at 172.50 ml/min±63.94 ml/min and 317.00 ml/min±105.21 ml/min, respectively, both were far lower than the normal blood flow. There were statistically significant differences in the blood flow of carotid artery and jugular vein before and after surgery ( P<0.01). It was found that the preoperative blood flow of the internal carotid artery at the plane of hyoid was positively correlated with the preoperative scores of MMSE ( P<0.01), MoCa ( P<0.05) and ADL ( P<0.01). The blood flow of the common carotid artery at the plane of cricoid cartilage was found significantly and positively correlated with the preoperative scores of MMSE ( P<0.05). It was also noted that the blood flow of the internal carotid artery at the plane of hyoid was significantly and positively correlated with the postoperative ADL ( P<0.01) but negatively correlated with the Agitation behavior score ( P<0.05). The blood flow of the common carotid artery at the plane of cricoid cartilage was significantly and positively correlated with the postoperative scores of MMSE and MoCa ( P<0.05). The blood flow of the internal jugular vein at the plane of hyoid was negatively correlated with the Agitation behavior score ( P<0.01). The cross-sectional area of carotid artery at the plane of left hyoid was significantly and positively correlated with the MMSE score ( P<0.05). Statistically significant differences were observed in MMSE, MoCa, ADL and Agitation behavior score before and after surgery ( P<0.01). Conclusion:dcLVA+ shows a certain therapeutic benefit to the elderly patients with cognitive impairment. The intraoperatively observed pathological changes in cervical lymphatic sacs affect deep cervical lymphatic drainage and the blood flow of carotid artery and jugular vein. Further studies are necessary to find out whether the findings from this study would be the specific pathological changes and the morbidity mechanisms among the elderly patients with cognitive impairment.
5.Experience analysis of therapeutic effects on 75 cases of infantile vascular rings
Xiaoming ZHOU ; Shunyang FAN ; Yuge PENG ; Yanli CHEN ; Yuqi YANG ; Lin LIN ; Haitao GUO ; Jinghao ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;41(8):453-459
Objective:To investigate the operation opportunity for vascular rings in infants and assess the impact of prenatal and postnatal integrated management strategies on treatment outcomes.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 75 infants with vascular rings who underwent surgical treatment at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2016 to December 2023. Among them, 54 were males and 21 were females, with a median age at surgery of 1.7 (0.7-6.9) months and a median weight of 5.3 (3.5-8.0) kg. Vascular rings malformation was diagnosed by real-time three-dimensional color doppler echocardiography during pregnancy in 51 cases. Preoperatively, 28 cases presented with respiratory or digestive system-related symptoms, and 26 cases had a history of hospitalization due to related symptoms. All patients underwent preoperative cardiac CTA+ CTVE and three-dimensional reconstruction examinations, and 56 cases showed varying degrees of airway compression and stenosis on imaging. Among them, 10 patients presented with preoperative stridor and respiratory distress; fiberoptic bronchoscopy performed after anesthesia induction confirmed significant tracheal compression/stenosis. One patient was ventilator-dependent preoperatively, and bronchoscopy revealed main bronchomalacia. The cohort included: Complete vascular rings (62 cases of double aortic arch, 10 cases of right aortic arch with aberrant left subclavian artery and left-sided ductus arteriosus/ligamentum) and incomplete vascular rings (3 cases of pulmonary artery sling). Additionally, 5 cases had associated Kommerell’s diverticulum, and 12 had intracardiac malformation. All patients successfully completed surgery, and those with intracardiac malformation underwent extracorporeal circulation and primary radical surgery concurrently. Based on prenatal diagnosis and implementation of prenatal and postnatal integrated management, patients were divided into an observation group (prenatal and postnatal integrated management group) and a control group (postnatally diagnosed group). The perioperative data of the two groups were compared to analyze the surgical outcomes and the advantages of prenatal and postnatal integrated treatment.Results:All 75 patients successfully completed surgery. Preoperatively, 56 cases (74.66%) presented with varying degrees of tracheal stenosis. Except for 1 case that died after abandoning treatment and 1 case that underwent tracheal surgery due to repeated failed ventilator weaning, all other patients were successfully discharged from the hospital. The overall mortality rate was 1.33%, and the rate of tracheal surgery was 1.35%. The age and weight at surgery in the observation group were lower than those in the control group ( P<0.05), and the proportion of preoperative hospitalization history was lower in the observation group ( P<0.05). No significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of tracheal compression and stenosis, postoperative monitoring time, operation time, ventilator time, and risk of postoperative complications ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Tracheal stenosis is a common complication in children with vascular rings. Early surgical intervention is recommended for complete vascular rings and pulmonary artery slings (as an incomplete ring). Timely prenatal diagnosis of vascular ring anomalies combined with the implementation of an integrated prenatal-postnatal management strategy can significantly reduce the risk of preoperative hospitalization due to related symptoms and may lower the risk of subsequent tracheal surgery, potentially improving long-term prognosis.
6.Sinicization and test of reliability and validity of Chinese version of Hybrid Education Competence Instrument
Ji REN ; Kefang WANG ; Yuqi ZHANG ; Yaru JIN ; Lin ZHANG ; Yanan WANG ; Binbin ZHANG ; Chunyan TANG
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2025;60(2):228-235
Objective The Hybrid Education Competence Instrument(HybridEduCom)was sinicized,and its reliability and validity were tested.Methods The translation,cultural adjustment and pre-investigation of HybridEduCom were followed by the Brislin translation model.The reliability and validity of the HybridEduCom was tested by surveying 553 educators in medical and nursing related fields by convenience sampling from March to April 2024.Results The Chinese version of HybridEduCom consisted of 46 items in 5 dimensions:planning and resourcing competence,technology competence,interaction competence,digital pedagogy competence,and ethical competence in the hybrid education.The confirmatory factor analysis resulted in the second-order five-factor model,with the chi-square and degree of freedom ratio being 1.274,approximate root mean square error being 0.022,goodness of fit index being 0.913,and standard fit index(NFI)being 0.934,and Tucker-Lewis and comparative fit index being 0.985.All main evaluation indexes were within the acceptable range of the judgment criteria.The item-content validity index was 0.833-1.000,and the scale-content validity index was 0.968.The Cronbach's α for the whole scale was 0.982,while varied from 0.892 to 0.936 for each dimension.The test-retest reliability of the scale was 0.978.Conclusion The reliability and validity of the Chinese version of HybridEduCom were satisfactory,and it can serve as a valid assessment instrument for the implementation of hybrid education competence of Chinese higher medical and nursing educators.
7.Impact of different registration methods on the accuracy of virtual occlusal records in implant restoration for multiple missing teeth: an in vitro study
Jiehua TIAN ; Yupeng MEI ; Yiming HUANG ; Yuqi HAN ; Ping DI ; Ye LIN
Chinese Journal of Stomatology 2025;60(3):254-261
Objective:To investigate the impact of four registration methods on the accuracy of virtual occlusal records (VOR) in intraoral scanning for implant restorations with multiple missing teeth.Methods:A mandibular model simulating clinical conditions with multiple missing teeth (right first molar, left second premolar, left first molar, left second molar) and a maxillary compete dentition model were mounted on a semi-adjustable articulator. Subsequently, twelve 0.5 mm stainless steel spheres were adhered to reference positions (16, 46, 13, 43, 23, 33, 25, 35, 26, 36, 27, 37) as fiducial markers. Following this, a laboratory scanner generated reference datasets by digitizing the models in maximum intercuspation (MIP). Meanwhile, ten maxillary and mandibular scans were acquired using an intraoral scanner, with all nonarticulated scans duplicated four times to ensure data consistency. Forty VOR intraoral scans were performed in MIP using four registration protocols: left-side, right-side, anterior, and bilateral registration ( n=10 per group), randomized via a computer-generated pseudo-random sequence. For measurement, linear distances (D16-46, D13-43, D23-33, D25-35, D26-36, D27-37, D16-46 represented the single-tooth defect position, whereas D25-35, D26-36, D27-37 reflected positions in free-end edentulism areas) between opposing markers were measured in a reverse engineering software, with deviations (ΔD) from the reference scan calculated to assess accuracy. Specifically, negative ΔD values indicated vertical dimension underestimation. Given that non-normally distributed data were analyzed using medians [interquartile ranges (IQR)], trueness (median ΔD) and precision (IQR) were evaluated. The interaction effect between the registration method and the position of the measurement items was evaluated by using the generalized linear model. The accuracy was compared overall by the Kruskal-Wallis test with the two-sided significance level of α=0.05. For pairwise comparisons, post-hoc tests were conducted by Dunn′s t-test with the Bonferroni correction for the significance level. Results:The accuracy of VOR was affected by registration method ( P<0.05), with a significant position×registration method interaction observed ( P<0.05). In particular, in all four groups, only the bilateral registration group showed trueness of less than 0.1 mm for both free-end edentulism and the single tooth defect, with ΔD16-46, ΔD25-35, ΔD26-36, and ΔD27-37 being 0.059 (0.015), -0.082 (0.052), -0.065 (0.032), -0.070 (0.050) mm, respectively. Moreover, trueness in free-end edentulism showed negative values across all groups, with the largest negative deviations observed in the right-side registration group, with ΔD25-35, ΔD26-36 and ΔD27-37 being -0.410 (0.174), -0.442 (0.225), -0.439 (0.262) mm, respectively. Conclusions:In fully digital workflows of implant restorations for mandibular free-end edentulism with multiple missing teeth, registration method critically influences VOR accuracy. While four registration methods exhibited underestimation of occlusal vertical dimension, bilateral registration achieved the highest accuracy.
8.Clinical application of an artificial intelligence system in predicting benign or malignant pulmonary nodules and pathological subtypes
Zhuowen YANG ; Zhizhong ZHENG ; Bin LI ; Yiming HUI ; Mingzhi LIN ; Jiying DANG ; Suiyang LI ; Chunjiao ZHANG ; Long YANG ; Liang SI ; Tieniu SONG ; Yuqi MENG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(08):1086-1095
Objective To evaluate the predictive ability and clinical application value of artificial intelligence (AI) systems in the benign and malignant differentiation and pathological type of pulmonary nodules, and to summarize clinical application experience. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with pulmonary nodules admitted to the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Second Hospital of Lanzhou University, from February 2016 to February 2025. Firstly, pulmonary nodules were divided into benign and non-benign groups, and the discriminative abilities of AI systems and clinicians were compared. Subsequently, lung nodules reported as precursor glandular lesions (PGL), microinvasive adenocarcinoma (MIA), and invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC) in postoperative pathological results were analyzed, comparing the efficacy of AI systems and clinicians in predicting the pathological type of pulmonary nodules. Results In the analysis of benign/non-benign pulmonary nodules, clinical data from a total of 638 patients with pulmonary nodules were included, of which there were 257 males (10 patients and 1 patient of double and triple primary lesions, respectively) and 381 females (18 patients and 1 patient of double and triple primary lesions, respectively), with a median age of 55.0 (47.0, 61.0) years. Different lesions in the same patient were analyzed as independent samples. Univariate analysis of the two groups of variables showed that, except for nodule location, the differences in the remaining variables were statistically significant (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, nodule type (subsolid pulmonary nodule), average density, spicule sign, and vascular convergence sign were independent influencing factors for non-benign pulmonary nodules, among which age, nodule type (subsolid pulmonary nodule), spicule sign, and vascular convergence sign were positively correlated with non-benign pulmonary nodules, while average density was negatively correlated with the occurrence of non-benign pulmonary nodules. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the malignancy risk value given by the AI system in predicting non-benign pulmonary nodules was 0.811, slightly lower than the 0.898 predicted by clinicians. In the PGL/MIA/IAC analysis, clinical data from a total of 411 patients with pulmonary nodules were included, of which there were 149 males (8 patients of double primary lesions) and 262 females (17 patients of double primary lesions), with a median age of 56.0 (50.0, 61.0) years. Different lesions in the same patient were analyzed as independent samples. Univariate analysis results showed that, except for gender, nodule location, and vascular convergence sign, the differences in the remaining variables among the three groups of PGL, MIA, and IAC patients were statistically significant (P<0.05). Multinomial multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the differences between the parameters in the PGL group and the MIA group were not statistically significant (P>0.05), and the maximum diameter and average density of the nodules were statistically different between the PGL and IAC groups (P<0.05), and were positively correlated with the occurrence of IAC as independent risk factors. The average AUC value, accuracy, recall rate, and F1 score of the AI system in predicting lung nodule pathological type were 0.807, 74.3%, 73.2%, and 68.5%, respectively, all better than the clinical physicians’ prediction of lung nodule pathological type indicators (0.782, 70.9%, 66.2%, and 63.7% respectively). The AUC value of the AI system in predicting IAC was 0.853, and the sensitivity, specificity, and optimal cutoff value were 0.643, 0.943, and 50.0%, respectively. Conclusion This AI system has demonstrated high clinical value in predicting the benign and malignant nature and pathological type of lung nodules, especially in predicting lung nodule pathological type, its ability has surpassed that of clinical physicians. With the optimization of algorithms and the adequate integration of multimodal data, it can better assist clinical physicians in formulating individualized diagnostic and treatment plans for patients with lung nodules.
9.Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province,2014-2023
Yuqi JIANG ; Jinhua ZHAO ; Jiang LONG ; Yang ZHANG ; Ping DENG ; Sheng-lin QIN ; Huayi ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Infection Control 2025;24(10):1389-1394
Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in<5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76%of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56%),farmers(24.65%),and students(12.62%).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55%;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66%).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.
10.Isolation,identification and biological characteristics of Aeromonas hydrophila from South China tiger
Yuqi LI ; Yali KANG ; Yubin ZHUO ; Lingshan HUANG ; Shuqi QIU ; Yuxi XUE ; Xiaop-ing WU ; Sisi FAN ; Yuting LIAO ; Weiye LIN ; Chan CHEN ; Kaixiong LIN ; Tengteng CHEN ; Xipan LIN ; Kewei FAN
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(1):46-52,58
The aim of this study is to identify the cause of death of a South China tiger cub at the Meihuashan breeding institute of Fujian Province.Pathogenic bacteria were isolated and cultured from liver,spleen,lung and other tissue samples of the dead South China tiger aseptically.The iso-lated bacteria were identified through morphological observation,biochemical characterization,sequence analysis of housekeeping gene gyrB,virulence gene detection,animal pathogenicity test and drug sensitivity test.A pathogenic Aeromonas hydrophila strain,designated FJ/Tiger-201809 was successfully isolated from the trachea of dead South China tiger.The nucleotide sequence ho-mology between the isolate and 11 strains of Aeromonas gyrB ranged from 91.2%to 99.1%,with the highest homology of 99.1%observed with Aeromonas hydrophila(AF208251.1).Genetic evo-lution analysis showed that the isolated strain FJ/Tiger-201809 was in the same evolutionary branch as other reference strains of Aeromonas hydrophila and was closely related.The pathoge-nicity test in mice showed artificial infection of mice with the strain resulted in varying degrees of lesions in several organs of the mice,and the median lethal dose(LD50)was 1 × 107.8 CFU/mL.Virulence gene test results showed that the isolate FJ/Tiger-201809 carried two virulence genes,aer and act.The results of drug sensitivity test showed that FJ/Tiger-201809 was highly sensitive to enrofloxacin and ampicillin among 18 commonly used antibiotics,relatively sensitive to penicil-lin G and doxycycline,and resistant to the other 14 antibiotics.In conclusion,this study isolated and identified a strain of Aeromonas hydrophila from a dead South China tiger with multiple drug resistance and strong pathogenicity,which provided an important reference for the prevention and control of bacterial diseases in South China tiger.

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