1.Research Tackling Paradigm and Technological Layout Strategies Based on Erectile Dysfunction, A Clinical Dominant Disease of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Qi ZHAO ; Yun CHEN ; Baoxing LIU ; Xuejun SHANG ; Fei SUN ; Xiaozhi ZHAO ; Zhigang WU ; Chao SUN ; Peihai ZHANG ; Wanjun CHENG ; Xing ZHOU ; Zhan QIN ; Yufeng PAN ; Weiwei TAO ; Jianhuai CHEN ; Mei MO ; Xiaoxiao ZHANG ; Xing ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):291-299
To thoroughly implement the strategic deployment outlined in the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Inheritance and Innovative Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine regarding research on dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine and to uphold the development philosophy of equal emphasis on traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine,the China Association of Chinese Medicine has fully played a leading academic role by systematically organizing and conducting a series of academic youth salons on clinical dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine. On September 13,2024,the 36th Youth Salon on Clinical Dominant Diseases was successfully held in Nanjing,focusing on the advantages of traditional Chinese medicine and the integrative traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED). The conference brought together leading experts from traditional Chinese medicine,western medicine,and interdisciplinary fields,facilitating in-depth multidisciplinary discussions that led to key consensus on optimizing traditional Chinese medicine treatment protocols for ED,researching and developing new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine,and advancing interdisciplinary development in traditional Chinese medicine. This salon systematically sorted out the clinical strengths and distinctive features of traditional Chinese medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of ED. Based on current research foundations and clinical needs,it identified key directions for future scientific layout and scientific research tackling: (1) Standardization of syndrome differentiation system of traditional Chinese medicine for ED. (2) Optimization and standardization of intervention methods of integrated traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine. (3) High-quality clinical research guided by evidence-based medicine. (4) In-depth analysis of the pharmacological mechanisms of traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of ED. (5) Clinical translation and application promotion of new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine. (6) Interdisciplinary integration and innovation in traditional Chinese medicine. For each research direction,key focus areas,expected objectives,and clinical value were further refined,along with the establishment of a scientifically sound priority funding level evaluation system. Therefore,building on the series of salons on the ED-focused dominant diseases of traditional Chinese medicine,this paper provides standardized guidance for clinical practice of traditional Chinese medicine in ED management,effectively contributing to the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine. It serves as a valuable reference for national scientific and technological strategic layout, research and development decision-making in new drugs of traditional Chinese medicine,research topic planning,and clinical guideline formulation.
2.Association between chronic disease comorbidity patterns and activities of daily living among permanent elderly residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai
Qian XU ; Xiaohong ZHANG ; Xiaolin QIAN ; Jing ZHU ; Yun CHEN ; Fei YAN ; Chaowei FU ; Haiyan GU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(7):527-535
ObjectiveTo investigate the patterns of chronic disease comorbidity among permanent elderly residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai, and to analyze the impact of different comorbidity patterns on the elderly’s ability to perform activities of daily living. MethodsBased on data from the 2015 and 2021 Surveys on Health Status and Health Service Utilization among Permanent Residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai, the study included permanent residents who fully participated in both surveys, were aged 60 years or older at the 2015 survey, self-reported having a chronic disease, and reported no significant changes in their chronic disease status between the two surveys. A prospective cohort study design was adopted, using the 2015 data as the baseline and the 2021 survey data as follow-up data. Physical examinations and questionnaire surveys were conducted by the Shanghai Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the subdistricts and towns within the jurisdiction from April to July in both 2015 and 2021. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to classify comorbidity patterns across 11 types of chronic diseases. The smaller the values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the sample-corrected Bayesian information criterion (aBIC), the better the model fits. The Barthel index (BI) and the Lawton and Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (LB-IADL) were used to assess the participants’ activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Multiple linear regression and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between different comorbidity patterns and ADL and IADL. ResultsA total of 1 608 study participants were enrolled. Among them, 671 (41.73%) self-reported having no chronic diseases. The prevalence of 11 types of chronic diseases was as follows: hypertension in 743 participants (46.21%), heart disease in 148 participants (9.20%), cerebrovascular disease in 37 participants (2.30%), diabetes or abnormal blood glucose in 310 participants (19.28%), other endocrine system diseases (non-diabetic) in 39 participants (2.43%), malignant tumors in 37 participants (2.30%), chronic lung disease in 16 participants (1.00%), gout in 8 participants (0.50%), musculoskeletal disorders in 34 participants (2.11%), gastric or digestive system diseases in 27 participants (1.68%), and dyslipidemia in 15 participants (0.93%). LCA was used to classify comorbidity patterns of chronic diseases among older adults into 1 to 9 latent category combinations. Model 5 (i.e., 5 latent categories) had the lowest BIC (7 112.69) and aBIC (6 909.38), with a relatively low AIC (6 768.20), indicating the best model fit; thus, five latent categories represented the optimal combination in this study. The five latent categories (and their respective proportions of study participants) were the healthy control group (41.73%), the hypertension group (31.28%), the diabetes-hypertension group (19.28%), the severe illness group (5.29%), and the other metabolic diseases group (2.43%). According to multiple linear regression analyses, compared with the healthy control group, the diabetes-hypertension group had significantly lower BI-20 scores (b=-0.952, 95%CI: -1.317‒ -0.587, P<0.001) and lower IADL scores (b=-0.744, 95%CI: -0.999‒ -0.489, P<0.001); the severe illness group (b=-0.644, 95%CI: -1.072‒ -0.217, P=0.003) and the hypertension group (b=-0.344, 95%CI: -0.562‒ -0.125, P=0.002) had lower IADL scores. According to multivariate logistic regression analyses, compared with the healthy control group, older adults in the diabetes-hypertension group had a higher risk of disability (OR=2.835, 95%CI: 1.392‒5.774), impaired ADL function (OR=2.470, 95%CI: 1.637‒3.726), and impaired IADL function (OR=1.739, 95%CI: 1.264‒2.392); older adults in the severe illness group had a higher risk of impaired ADL function (OR=2.206, 95%CI: 1.171‒4.155). ConclusionAmong the elderly participating in the Survey on Health Status and Health Service Utilization of Permanent Residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai, diabetes-hypertension is one of the key chronic disease comorbidity combinations and has adverse effects on both ADL and IADL. Community health management should prioritize the elderly with diabetes-hypertension comorbidity, and strengthen early screening and comprehensive interventions to slow the decline in ADL and IADL.
3.Guideline for diagnosis and treatment of infection after internal fixation of closed lower limb fractures in adults (version 2025)
Bobin MI ; Faqi CAO ; Weixian HU ; Wu ZHOU ; Chenchen YAN ; Hui LI ; Yun SUN ; Yuan XIONG ; Jinmi ZHAO ; Qikai HUA ; Xinbao WU ; Xieyuan JIANG ; Dianying ZHANG ; Zhongguo FU ; Dankai WU ; Guangyao LIU ; Guodong LIU ; Tengbo YU ; Jinhai TAN ; Xi CHEN ; Fengfei LIN ; Zhangyuan LIN ; Dongfa LIAO ; Aiguo WANG ; Shiwu DONG ; Gaoxing LUO ; Zhao XIE ; Dong SUN ; Dehao FU ; Yunfeng CHEN ; Changqing ZHANG ; Kun LIU ; Deye SONG ; Yongjun RUI ; Fei WU ; Ximing LIU ; Junwen WANG ; Meng ZHAO ; Biao CHE ; Bing HU ; Chengjian HE ; Guanglin WANG ; Xiao CHEN ; Guandong DAI ; Shiyuan FANG ; Wenchao SONG ; Ming CHEN ; Guanghua GUO ; Yongqing XU ; Lei YANG ; Wenqian ZHANG ; Kun ZHANG ; Xin TANG ; Hua CHEN ; Weiguo XU ; Shuquan GUO ; Yong LIU ; Xiaodong GUO ; Zhewei YE ; Liming XIONG ; Tian XIA ; Hongbin WU ; Qisheng ZHOU ; Mengfei LIU ; Yiqiang HU ; Yanjiu HAN ; Hang XUE ; Kangkang ZHA ; Wei CHEN ; Zhiyong HOU ; Bin YU ; Jiacan SU ; Peifu TANG ; Baoguo JIANG ; Guohui LIU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(5):421-432
Postoperative infection of internal fixation of closed fractures the lower limbs in adults represents a devastating complication, characterized by diagnostic challenges, prolonged treatment duration and high disability rates. Current management of these infections faces multiple challenges, such as difficulties in early accurate diagnosis, and various controversies about the treatment plan, leading to poor overall diagnosis and treatment results. To address these issues, based on evidence-based medicine and principles with emphasis on scientific rigor, clinical applicability and innovation, the Trauma Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, Orthopedic Branch of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association, Orthopedics Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, and Trauma Orthopedics and Polytrauma Group of the Resuscitation and Emergency Committee of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association have collaboratively organized a panel of relevant experts to develop the Guideline for diagnosis and treatment of infection after internal fixation of closed lower limb fractures in adults ( version 2025). The guideline proposed 10 recommendations, aiming to provide a foundation for standardized diagnosis and treatment of postoperative infection in adults with closed lower limb fractures.
4.Safety of colostrum collection in the third trimester and evaluation of postpartum breastfeeding in pregnant women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy
Guang-yun GAO ; Jing WANG ; Jun-ping ZHANG ; Jia SHENG ; Jie-jing SHENG ; Li-ping MAO ; Fei-fei ZHOU
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences 2025;52(2):225-231
Objective To preliminarily explore the safety of collecting colostrum in the third trimester,and to evaluate postpartum breastfeeding in pregnant women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy.Methods Pregnant women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy who had prenatal examinations in Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital,Fudan University from Jul to Nov 2022 were prospectively divided into the colostrum collection group(n=52)in the third trimester and the control group(n=55)by randomized controlled grouping method.The t-test,χ2 test,Fisher's exact probability method and rank sum test were used for statistical analysis of the data to compare the delivery outcomes,neonatal outcomes and postpartum breastfeeding status between the two groups.Results There were no significant differences in the gestational weeks at delivery,delivery methods,breastfeeding rates at 42 days postpartum and 4 months postpartum between the two groups of pregnant women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy.There were also no significant differences in the Apgar scores at 1 minute and 5 minutes after birth and the neonatal hospitalization rate.The proportion of formula milk as the first supplementary feeding after delivery and the delayed lactation rate at 3 days postpartum in the colostrum collection group were significantly lower than those in the control group(P<0.05).The exclusive breastfeeding rates at 24 hours postpartum and 3 days postpartum in the colostrum collection group were significantly higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).Conclusion Collecting colostrum in the third trimester among pregnant women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy is safe,and it can reduce the rate of supplementary feeding with formula milk after delivery,and increase the exclusive breastfeeding rates at 24 hours postpartum and 3 days postpartum.
5.Underlying target of bullatine A in treating rheumatoid arthritis based on LiP-SMap drug target proteomics
Hao-hong ZHANG ; Nan-ting ZOU ; Chun-fei ZHANG ; Qing-yan MO ; Ming-qian JU ; Xiao-hong LI ; Shuai LIU ; Mao-kui HUANG ; Hong-yun WANG ; Chun-ping WAN
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(6):1072-1078
Aim To identify the underlying target of bullatine A(BA)against rheumatoid arthritis(RA)u-sing limited proteolysis-small molecule mapping(LiP-SMap)drug target proteomics and to provide a scientif-ic basis for clinical application of Aconiti brachypodi Radix in the treatment of RA.Methods LiP-SMap drug target proteomics was employed to perform bioin-formatics analysis for comparing and validating the dif-ferential protein expression after BA intervention.A collagen-induced arthritis(CIA)model was estab-lished in DBA/1 mice using bovine type Ⅱ collagen.The mice were then divided into the CIA model group,methotrexate-positive control group(MTX group),and BA groups(10 mg·kg-1 and 20 mg·kg-1)based on their clinical scores.After drug intervention,the thera-peutic efficacy against RA was assessed by joint index scores and foot thickness measurements.Histopatholog-ical changes in the arthritic joints of CIA mice were e-valuated using hematoxylin and eosin(HE)staining.Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)was employed to detect inflammatory cytokines interleukin-17(IL-17)and total IgG and IgG3 anti-collagen-spe-cific antibodies levels from the serum of CIA mice.Flow cytometry was used to detect the expression levels of intracellular Th17 cells(IL-17+CD4+T cells)and Th1 cells(IFN-γ+CD4+T cells).Fluorescent quanti-tative PCR was performed to detect the expression of genes related to differential proteins.Results The proteomic analysis identified Serpinb1a as a protein with strong binding affinity to BA,and KEGG enrich-ment analysis indicated IL-17 signaling pathway was a crucial pathway of BA in against RA.BA treatment significantly reduced clinical scores and foot thickness,improved local arthritis symptoms in CIA mice,and al-leviated inflammatory cell infiltration into arthritic joints(P<0.05).Differential protein validation re-sults showed that BA had strong affinity with Serpinb1a(-5.92 kJ·mol-1)and downregulated the expres-sion of Serpinb1a mRNA.Furthermore,the administra-tion of BA markedly reduced serum IL-17 A levels from CIA mice,inhibited the expression of intracellular IL-17 A and IFN-γ cytokines in splenic CD4+T cells(P<0.05),and significantly downregulated the transcrip-tional expression of IL-17F(P<0.05).Conclusion BA exhibits therapeutic effects on collagen-induced arthritis,and its mechanism of action may involve the regulation of Serpinb1a and the IL-17 signaling path-way.
6.Construction of a prediction model for seroma after endoscopic thyroid-ectomy by breast approach
Sheng-fei YANG ; Yun-da ZHANG ; Ming LIU ; Shi-ran QIAN ; Shu-xiong LI ; Man ZHANG ; Meng-ling WEI ; Dong-wei LI
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(5):337-342
Objective:To explore the prognostic factors of seroma after endoscopic thyroidectomy by breast ap-proach,and construct a nomogram to predict the possibility of cervical seroma.Methods:Data of patients undergoing endoscopic thyroid surgery in Dongguan Tungwah Hospital from January 2022 to May 2024 and Dongguan Songshan Lake Tungwah Hospital from May 2023 to August 2024 were retrospectively analyzed,and 1493 patients meeting the in-clusion criteria were selected.Among them,there were 1048 patients in Dongguan Tungwah Hospital as the training co-hort,1015 patients without seroma group and 33 patients with seroma group.There were 445 patients in Dongguan Songshan Lake Tungwah Hospital as the verification cohort,including 424 patients without seroma and 21 patients with seroma.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to obtain relevant independent prognostic factors,and R soft-ware established a nomogram model.Calibration curves,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit,ROC curves were used to evaluate the calibrability of the nomogram model,and clinical utility was assessed by clinical decision curves.Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that central lymph node dissection,diabetes,hyperthyroidism,and nod-ule size were independent prognostic factors related to seroma.Based on the prognostic factors,the nomogram of se-roma after ETBA was constructed.The calibration curves of the training and the verification group were in good agree-ment with the observed results,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good,with the training cohort P=0.244 and the verification cohort P=0.803.The ROC curve of the training cohort showed that the area under the curve was 0.810(95%CI:0.740~0.879),and the ROC curve of the verification cohort showed that the area under the curve was 0.815(95%CI:0.722~0.909).Conclusion:The nomogram model based on the relevant prognostic factors ob-tained by multivariate logistic regression analysis has a good prediction effect on the seroma after ETBA,and can provide reasonable and individualized treatment plan for patients.
7.Evaluation of the effect of spectacle lens wear on exophthalmometry values in myopia using propensity score matching
Hongmei ZHANG ; Yun ZHU ; Fei GAO ; Nan JIN ; Ruihua WEI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(6):542-547
Objective:To investigate whether spectacle lens wear affects the exophthalmometry values (EVs) on myopia and explore the risk factors for EVs in myopia.Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted.A total of 935 university freshmen (935 eyes) who received eye examinations were enrolled from September to December 2019.Anterior segments were examined by slit lamp microscopy.EVs were measured with a Hertel exophthalmometer.Non-cycloplegia auto-refraction, lensometer test, visual acuity test and subjective refraction were performed on all subjects.Ocular biometric parameters including axial length (AL) and average corneal radius (CR) were obtained by Lenstar 900.A 1∶1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed between the spectacle group and the non-spectacle group to compare the differences in EVs and visual acuity.Linear regression was used to analyze the effect of different factors on the EVs in all myopic students.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki.The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Tianjin Medical University Eye Hospital (No.2021KY-16).Written informed consent was obtained from each subject.Results:The mean EVs of students was (14.03±1.87)mm.There were significant differences in the distribution of myopia severity between the spectacle group and non-spectacle group before matching ( χ2=345.800, P<0.001), and after PSM, the baseline characteristics of the two groups were well balanced with good comparability.After PSM, there was no significant difference in EVs between the spectacle group and non-spectacle group ([13.93±1.87]mm vs.[13.66±1.85]mm; t=1.140, P=0.25), and the spectacle group had better visual acuity of 1.0(0.8, 1.0) than 0.4(0.2, 0.8) in non-spectacle group, with a statistically significant difference ( Z=-8.450, P<0.001).Multivariate linear regression showed that EVs increased by 0.06 mm for every 1 D increase in spherical equivalent towards myopia ( β=-0.06, 95% CI: -0.11--0.01, P=0.03), and EVs increased by 0.17 mm for every 1 mm increase in AL ( β=0.17, 95% CI: 0.06-0.28, P<0.01).Average CR did not influence EVs significantly ( β=0.07, 95% CI: -0.10-0.24, P=0.43). Conclusions:Wearing spectacles may not affect the EVs and not wearing spectacle may affect visual acuity in myopic patients.The higher the degree of myopia, the longer the AL, the higher the EVs may be.
8.Clinical study of pediatric severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia complicated with pulmonary embolism
Lijun LUO ; Yun CUI ; Mingjun ZHANG ; Yucai ZHANG ; Yiping ZHOU ; Fei SUN ; Chenggao XU ; Shunfeng MAO ; Ting SUN ; Yijun SHAN ; Ye LU
Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics 2025;40(10):775-779
Objective:To explore the clinical features and risk factors for pediatric severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (SMPP) complicated with pulmonary embolism. Methods:SMPP patients admitted to Department of Pediatrics, Jiaxing First Hospital and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Shanghai Children′s Hospital from December 2019 to December 2023 were included in this retrospective case-control study.According to whether they were complicated with pulmonary embolism, SMPP patients were divided into a pulmonary embolism group and a non-pulmonary embolism group.Clinical characteristics of the two groups, including general data, laboratory examination and imaging data were compared and analyzed.The t-test and Mann-Whitney rank-sum test were used to compare the measurement data, and the χ2 test was used to compare the count data.The risk factors of SMPP patients developing pulmonary embolism were analyzed by the univariate method. Results:There were 10 out of 62 SMPP children developing pulmonary embolism, showing an incidence of 16.13%.In the pulmonary embolism group, there were 5 boys and 5 girls, with a median age of 7.50 (5.75, 9.25) years.There were 52 children in the non-pulmonary embolism group, including 29 boys and 23 girls, with a median age of 6.50(5.00, 8.00)years.The hospitalization time, body temperature, total white blood cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein levels, lactate dehydrogenase levels, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, D-dimer (D-D) levels, fibrinogen degradation product levels, pleural effusion and atelectasis rates in the pulmonary embolism group were significantly higher than those in the non-pulmonary embolism group (all P<0.05). Fibrinogen levels in the pulmonary embolism group were significantly lower than those in the non-pulmonary embolism group ( P<0.05). Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the D-D level was a risk factor for SMPP patient developing pulmonary embolism.The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the D-D level had the largest area under the curve for predicting pulmonary embolism of 0.990(95% CI: 0.972-1.000, P<0.001), with a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 92%, and a cut-off value of 4.63 mg/L. Conclusions:SMPP children complicated with pulmonary embolism are prone to high inflammation and impaired coagulation function.The increase of D-D levels is a risk factor for the development of pulmonary embolism in SMPP.
9.Honey-processed Hedysari Radix regulating the colon of spleen qi deficiency rats study on the GPR41/GPR43 mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signal pathway
Er-dan XIN ; Guo-feng LI ; Tian-tian BIAN ; Yu-gui ZHANG ; Fei-yun GAO ; Ting LIU ; Zhuan-hong ZHANG ; Yue-feng LI
The Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2025;41(2):215-219
Objective To explore the mechanism of honey-processed Hedysari Radix in the regulation of intestinal immunity in rats with spleen qi deficiency,which was based on G protein-coupled receptor 41(GPR41)/GPR43-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK)signaling pathway.Methods The three-factor composite modeling method of eating disorder,diarrhea and fatigue was used to establish a model of spleen qi deficiency,and the rats were randomly divided into model,honey-processed Hedysari Radix,probiotics and blank groups with 15 rats per group.The honey-processed Hedysari Radix group was given by gavage 12.6 g·kg-1 aqueous extract of honey-processed Hedysari Radix.The probiotics group was given 0.625 g·kg-1 bifidobacterium triple viable solution by gavage.The blank and model groups were given the same dose of distilled water by gavage.Four groups were treated for 15 d with once a day.The expression levels of GPR41,GPR43,P38 MAPK,c-Jun N-terminal kinase(JNK)and extracellular regulatory protein kinase 1/2(ERK1/2)in colon tissues were detected by Western blotting.Results The relative expression levels of GPR41 in the blank,model,honey-processed Hedysari Radix and probiotics groups were 0.95±0.07,0.45±0.03,0.84±0.19 and 0.86±0.20;the relative expression levels of GPR43 were 1.17±0.11,0.41±0.06,0.66±0.03 and 0.57±0.01;the phosphorylated ERK1/2/ERK1/2 ratios were 0.16±0.01,0.43±0.01,0.39±0.01 and 0.36±0.02;the phosphorylated JNK/JNK ratios were 0.58±0.05,1.47±0.10,0.90±0.11 and 0.90±0.11;the phosphorylated P38 MAPK/P38 MAPK ratios were 1.77±0.33,3.19±0.03,2.01±0.17 and 2.23±0.59,respectively.Compared with the model group,the differences of above indexes were statistically significant in the honey-processed Hedysari Radix and probiotics groups(P<0.05,P<0.01).Conclusion The mechanism of honey-processed Hedysari Radix regulating intestinal immunity in rats with spleen qi deficiency is related to the regulation of GPR41/GPR43 mediated MAPK signaling pathway.
10.Spring and summer-autumn pollen grading and forecasting model based on daily visits of allergic rhinitis patients
Yuhui OUYANG ; Zhaoyin YIN ; Yun YAN ; Jingguo CHEN ; Wenxuan FEI ; Lili GONG ; Weiwei LIU ; Xiaojia LIU ; Daoliang SONG ; Zhendong XU ; Ying ZHANG ; Yuan ZHANG ; Luo ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;60(3):313-320
Objective:To establish graded forecast models of pollen concentration in spring and summer-autumn in northern China, based on long-term data of pollen and allergic rhinitis (AR) medical visits in 8 cities of northern China.Methods:Pollen concentration and the characteristics of AR patients from 8 cities of northern China, including Beijing, Baotou, Hohhot, Xi′an, Xining, Cangzhou, Liaocheng and Zibo, were analyzed. Spearman′s correlation was used to examine the relationship between pollen concentration and daily AR patient visits. A pollen concentration grading was establish, and a pollen forecast model was created using the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The model incorporated meteorological factors and the 3-day moving average of pollen concentrations.Results:The spring pollen period started early and lasted long in Beijing and Xi ′an, while the summer-autumn pollen period started earlier and persisted longer in Xining, Baotou and Hohhot. During summer-autumn pollen period, and the spring period in most cities (except Baotou and Cangzhou), average daily patient visits were significantly higher than those in non-pollen periods. A strong correlation was observed between daily AR patient visits and the 3-day moving average of pollen concentrations in both the spring and summer-autumn periods across all cities. Based on the correlation, a pollen concentration grading standard of northern China was established. The accuracy evaluation of pollen concentration prediction model showed that the percentage of forecasts with either completely accurate or within one level difference exceeded 91% in spring and 95% in summer-autumn. The most important predictive variable in the model was the pollen level from previous day, followed by the temperature and humidity.Conclusion:The grading prediction model for pollen concentration provides guidance for AR patients in term of travel, early defense and treatment, as well as the determining medication schedules for clinical drug research and specific immunotherapy.

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