Objective To study the application of the trinity model and trinity forecasting method in predicting the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB).Methods By applying the monthly PTB incidence data in Zhe-jiang Province from 2011 to 2021,a prediction model was constructed based on the trinity model and trinity forecas-ting method.Predictive performance of the model was evaluated.Results The mean relative prediction errors of model 1 and model 2 based on trinity model and trinity forecasting method were 7.94％and 8.43％,respectively.The mean relative prediction error obtained by adopting autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was 8.87％,and the above mean relative prediction error were all in the range of 7.9％-8.9％,which presented an excellent performance of the forecasting model.Conclusion The trinity model is an excellent time series forecasting model,and the trinity forecasting method is an excellent time series forecasting method,with high application value.

Objective To construct a prognostic model for liver hepatocellular carcinoma(LIHC)based on immune-related genes.Methods LIHC and normal tissue samples were downloaded from the UCSC Xena database and The Cancer Genome Atlas(TCGA)database.Differential analysis was performed on the gene data of LIHC samples and adjacent/normal samples.Enrichment analysis was conducted on differentially expressed genes.Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed on liver cancer samples from the TCGA cohort to obtain survival-and immune-related differentially expressed genes.LASSO Cox and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify hub genes and construct a gene risk prognostic model.Data from a high-throughput gene expression(GEO)database was obtained for external validation.The sensitivity of hub genes to common anticancer drugs was investigated using the CellMiner database.Results Enrichment analysis result indicated that differentially expressed genes were mainly associated with metabolic pathways.Through differential analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis,25 survival-and immune-related differentially expressed genes were obtained.Based on the result of LASSO Cox and multivariate Cox regression analysis,five hub genes(FYN,CSF3R,HLA-G,FOS,BIRC5)were identified and a nomogram was constructed.The concordance index(C-index)value for the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.739 and 0.625,respectively.Based on the sensitivity of hub genes to anticancer drugs,12 types of anticancer drugs were selected for subsequent experiments.Conclusion This model can effectively predict the prognosis of LIHC patients and provide a new insights for immune therapy in LIHC.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the protective effect of artesunate(Art)against apoptosis and mitophagy induced by NaF in osteocytes MLO-Y4,and to explore the molecular mechanism.METHODS MLO-Y4 cells were treated with NaF(2 mmol·L-1)for 48 h to establish an in vitro model of osteocytes injuries,and the cells were divided into the cell control group,NaF(2 mmol·L-1)group and NaF+Art 0.25,0.50 and 1.00 μmol·L-1 groups.The cells were pretreated for 2 h and NaF was added for 48 h.The cell survival of MLO-Y4 cells was detected by MTT assay.The cell viability of MLO-Y4 cells was measured by Calcein-AM staining.The lactate dehydrogenase(LDH)content in the supernatant was examined by the LDH detection kit.The level of intracellular reactive oxygen species(ROS)was examined by DCFH-DA staining.The malondialdehyde(MDA)content and superoxide dismutase(SOD)activity were detected by chemical colorimetry.Apoptosis was measured by Hoechst33342 staining and Annexin-V/PI staining.The level of mitochondrial membrane potential(MMP)was measured by JC-1 staining.The formation of autophagic vacuoles and morphological mitochondrial changes were observed via Lyso-tracker staining and Mito-Tracker staining.The ATP content was detected with the luciferase method.The expression of microtubule-associated protein light chain 3(LC-3)in mitochon-dria was examined by immunofluorescence staining.Protein expressions of LC-3,P62,E3 ubiquitin-ligase(Parkin)and PTEN-induced putative kinase 1(PINK1)were detected by Western blotting.RESULTS Compared with the cell control group,the cell survival rate and cell viability were significantly reduced in the NaF group(P<0.01),LDH content in the supernatant,the level of intracellular ROS,the MDA content,apoptosis rate and autophagic vesicle formation were remarkably increased(P<0.01),protein levels of Parkin and PINK1,and the conversion of LC-3Ⅱ from LC-3Ⅰ were markedly upregulated along with the elevation of LC-3 in damaged mitochondria(P<0.01),while P62 levels,SOD activity,MMP and ATP contents were reduced in NaF cells(P<0.05,P<0.01).Compared with NaF group,the cell viability and survival rate of MLO-Y4 cells in NaF+Art 0.25,0.50 and 1.00 μmol·L-1 groups were significantly increased(P<0.01);the content of LDH in supernatants was decreased obviously(P<0.01);the levels of intracellular ROS and MDA content were markedly reduced(P<0.05,P<0.01);the apoptosis rate and autophagic vesicle formation were remarkably decreased(P<0.05,P<0.01);protein levels of Parkin and PINK1,and the conversion of LC-3Ⅱ from LC-3Ⅰ were markedly down-regulated along with the accumulation of LC-3 in damaged mitochondria(P<0.01);MMP and ATP content were also reduced(P<0.05,P<0.01);while SOD activityand P62 levelwere significantly increased(P<0.05,P<0.01).CONCLU-SION Art has a protective effect against oxidative damage induced by NaF in MLO-Y4 cells,which might be related to the inhibition of apoptosis and mitophagy.

Background ¹³⁷Cs in atmospheric aerosol is the product of past nuclear weapon tests and nuclear accidents. When ¹³⁷Cs is released into the atmosphere, it will deposit in dry land and marine environment, causing pollution of soil surface, water, agricultural products, and animal byproducts, and affecting public health. Objective To identify the variation pattern of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in aerosol and its correlation with dust concentration in Beijing area from 2017 to 2020. Methods A total of 958 aerosol samples were collected from November 1, 2017 to June 30, 2020 in Beijing with a high volume air sampler at a sampling flow rate about 600 m³·h⁻¹ and a collection time for each sample about 24 h. The activity concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the aerosol samples was determined with a low-background high-purity germanium γ spectrometer. The dust concentration was calculated using the difference in the mass of the aerosol filter before and after sampling. The detection rate of ¹³⁷Cs and dust concentration in different seasons were compared. Spearman rank correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration and dust concentration. Results From 2017 to 2020, the ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations of 33 from 958 aerosol samples in Beijing were above the minimum detectable activityconcentration, the overall detection rate of ¹³⁷Cs was 3.4%, and the activity concentration ranged from 1.86 to 45.53 μBq·m⁻³, with a median value of 4.85 μBq·m⁻³. The detection rate of ¹³⁷Cs was highest in spring, followed by autumn, and lowest in winter and summer (8.4%, 3.0%, 1.1%, and 0.5%, respectively). The dust concentration ranged from 0.03 to 1.55 mg·m⁻³, with an average value of 0.18 mg·m⁻³. There was a statistically significant difference in the dust concentrations in spring, summer, autumn, and winter (F=45.51, P<0.05), and the highest value was 0.24 mg·m⁻³ in spring (P<0.05). The ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration was positively correlated with the dust concentration (P<0.05). Conclusion The ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in aerosol in Beijing from 2017 to 2020 fluctuates within the range of background level, and its activity concentration is highest in spring, followed autumn, and lowest in summer and winter.

Objective To investigate the effects of anti-HLA donor-specific antibodies(DSA)and desensitization for DSA+patients on engraftment of haploidentical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(haplo-HSCT).Methods The patients who underwent haplo-HSCT and examinations for HLA antibodies and DSA in our department from March 2017 to July 2023 were recruited in this study.The effects of desensitization measure on engraftment in the DSA+patients after haplo-HSCT were analyzed.Results Among the 70 patients who underwent haplo-HSCT and test for HLA antibodies,15(21.4％)patients were DSA positive,including 7(46.7％)cases of strong positive,3(20.0％)cases of moderate positive,and 5(33.3％)cases of weak positive.The median duration for neutrophil implantation was significantly extended in the DSA+patients than the negative patients(P=0.027).For the 6 patients developed graft failure(GF),4 were DSA+which was statistically higher than the DSA-patients(P=0.025).Multivariate regression analysis showed that DSA was an independent factor affecting GF(HR=9.273,95％CI:1.505～57.124,P=0.016).Among the 10 patients(7 strong positive and 3 moderate positive DSA)received desensitization therapy,4 patients received combination desensitization,with a 100％rate of successful transplantation,and 6 received single desensitization,with 4(66.7％)experiencing GF,so the GF rate was obviously lower in the combination than the single desensitization(P=0.008).Conclusion In haplo-HSCT patients,DSA is an important factor leading to implantation delay and GF.While,single desensitization treatment has limited efficacy.In combined DSA desensitization therapy,the decrease of antibody titer should be dynamically monitored to ensure the successful implantation of stem cells and reduce GF rate.

Background: This study aimed to develop a diabetic kidney disease (DKD) prediction model using long short term memory (LSTM) neural network and evaluate its performance using accuracy, precision, recall, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Methods: The study identified DKD risk factors through literature review and physician focus group, and collected 7 years of data from 6,040 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients based on the risk factors. Pytorch was used to build the LSTM neural network, with 70% of the data used for training and the other 30% for testing. Three models were established to examine the impact of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and pulse pressure (PP) variabilities on the model’s performance. Results: The developed model achieved an accuracy of 83% and an AUC of 0.83. When the risk factor of HbA1c variability, SBP variability, or PP variability was removed one by one, the accuracy of each model was significantly lower than that of the optimal model, with an accuracy of 78% (P<0.001), 79% (P<0.001), and 81% (P<0.001), respectively. The AUC of ROC was also significantly lower for each model, with values of 0.72 (P<0.001), 0.75 (P<0.001), and 0.77 (P<0.05). Conclusion The developed DKD risk predictive model using LSTM neural networks demonstrated high accuracy and AUC value. When HbA1c, SBP, and PP variabilities were added to the model as featured characteristics, the model’s performance was greatly improved.

Objective:To explore the current status of surgery for portal hypertension to grasp current status and future development of surgery in China.Methods:This study is jointly sponsored by China Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Specialist Alliance & Portal Hypertension Alliance in China (CHESS).Comprehensive surveying is conducted for basic domestic situations of surgery for portal hypertension, including case load, surgical approaches, management of postoperative complications, primary effects, existing confusion and obstacles, liver transplantation(LT), laparoscopic procedures and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS), etc.Results:A total of 8 512 cases of portal hypertension surgery are performed at 378 hospitals nationwide in 2021.Splenectomy plus devascularization predominated(53.0%)and laparoscopy accounted for 76.1%.Primary goal is preventing rebleeding(67.0%) and 72.8% of hospitals used preventive anticoagulants after conventional surgery.And 80.7% of teams believe that the formation of postoperative portal vein thrombosis is a surgical dilemma and 65.3% of hospitals practiced both laparoscopy and TIPS.The major reasons for patients with portal hypertension not receiving LT are due to a lack of qualifications for LT(69.3%)and economic factors(69.0%).Conclusions:Surgery is an integral part of management of portal hypertension in China.However, it is imperative to further standardize the grasp of surgical indications, the handling of surgical operation and the management of postoperative complications.Moreover, prospective, multi-center randomized controlled clinical studies should be performed.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of anorectal mucosal melanoma (ARMM), and to evaluate the prognostic factors. METHODS: A total of 68 primary ARMM surgical specimens from 2010 to 2018 were retrospectively studied. Slides were reviewed to evaluate pathological features. Slingluff staging method was used for staging. RESULTS: (1) Clinical features: The median age at diagnosis in this group was 61.5 years, with a male-to-female ratio 1 ∶1.62. The most common complaint was blooding (49 cases). For anatomic site, anorectum was the prevalent (66.2%), followed by rectum (20.6%). At the time of diagnosis, 28 cases were stage Ⅰ (localized stage, 41.2%), 25 cases were stage Ⅱ (regional lymph node metastasis, 36.8%), and 15 cases were stage Ⅲ (distant metastasis, 22.1%). Five patients underwent wide local excision, the rest abdominoperineal resection, and 48 patients received adjuvant therapy after surgery. (2) Pathological features: Grossly 88.2% of the tumors were exophytic polypoid masses, with the median tumor size 3.5 cm and the median tumor thickness 1.25 cm. Depth of invasion below lamina muscularis mucosae ranged from 0-5.00 cm (median 1.00 cm). The deepest site of tumor invasion reached muscular layer in 27 cases, and perirectal tissue in 16 cases. Melanin pigmentation was absent or not obvious in 67.6% of the cases. The predominant cytology was epithelioid (45 cases, 66.2%). The rate for ulceration, necrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion was 89.7%, 35.3%, 55.9%, and 30.9%, respectively. The median mitotic count was 18/mm². The positive rate of S100, HMB-45 and Melan-A were 92.0%, 92.6% and 98.0%, respectively. The median of Ki-67 was 50%. The incidences of mutations within CKIT, BRAF and NRAS genes were 17.0% (9 cases), 3.8% (2 cases) and 9.4% (5 cases), respectively. (3) Prognosis: Survival data were available in 66 patients, with a median follow-up of 17 months and a median survival time of 17.4 months. The 1-year, 2-year and 5-year overall survival rate was 76.8%, 36.8% and 17.2%, respectively. The rate of lymphatic metastasis at diagnosis was 56.3%. Forty-nine patients (84.5%) suffered from distant metastasis, and the most frequent metastatic site was liver. Univariate analysis revealed that tumor size (>3.5 cm), depth of invasion below lamina muscularis mucosae (>1.0 cm), necrosis, lymphovascular invasion, BRAF gene mutation, lack of adjuvant therapy after surgery, deep site of tumor invasion, and high stage at diagnosis were all poor prognostic factors for overall survival. Multivariate model showed that lymphovascular invasion and BRAF gene mutation were independent risk factors for lower overall survival, and high stage at diagnosis showed borderline negative correlation with overall survival. CONCLUSION The overall prognosis of ARMM is poor, and lymphovascular invasion and BRAF gene mutation are independent factors of poor prognosis. Slingluff staging suggests prognosis effectively, and detailed assessment of pathological features, clear staging and genetic testing should be carried out when possible. Depth of invasion below lamina muscularis mucosae of the tumor might be a better prognostic indicator than tumor thickness.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Staging ; Retrospective Studies ; Proto-Oncogene Proteins B-raf ; Prognosis ; Melanoma/surgery*

Humans ; Consensus ; Hypersensitivity ; Desensitization, Immunologic/adverse effects* ; Immunotherapy/adverse effects* ; Injections, Subcutaneous ; Allergens