1.Establishing of mortality predictive model for elderly critically ill patients using simple bedside indicators and interpretable machine learning algorithms.
Yulan MENG ; Jiaxin LI ; Xinqiang SHAN ; Pengyu LU ; Wei HUANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(2):170-176
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the feasibility of incorporating simple bedside indicators into death predictive model for elderly critically ill patients based on interpretability machine learning algorithms, providing a new scheme for clinical disease assessment.
METHODS:
Elderly critically ill patients aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Tacheng People's Hospital of Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture from June 2017 to May 2020 were retrospectively selected. Basic parameters including demographic characteristics, basic vital signs and fluid intake and output within 24 hours after admission, as well acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Glasgow coma score (GCS) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) were also collected. According to outcomes in hospital, patients were divided into survival group and death group. Four datasets were constructed respectively, namely baseline dataset (B), including age, body temperature, heart rate, pulse oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, mean arterial pressure, urine output volume, infusion volume, and crystal solution volume; B+APACHE II dataset (BA), B+GCS dataset (BG), and B+SOFA dataset (BS). Then three machine learning algorithms, Logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGboost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) were used to develop the corresponding mortality predictive models within four datasets. The feature importance histogram of each prediction model was drawn by SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) method. The area under curve (AUC), accuracy and F1 score of each model were compared to determine the optimal prediction model and then illuminate the nomogram.
RESULTS:
A total of 392 patients were collected, including 341 in the survival group and 51 in the death group. There were statistically significant differences in heart rate, pulse oxygen saturation, mean arterial pressure, infusion volume, crystal solution volume, and etiological distribution between the two groups. The top three causes of death were shock, cerebral hemorrhage, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Among the 12 prognostic models trained by three machine learning algorithms, overall performance of prognostic models based on B dataset was behind, whereas the LR model trained by BA dataset achieved the best performance than others with AUC of 0.767 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.692-0.836], accuracy of 0.875 (95%CI was 0.837-0.903) and F1 score of 0.190. The top 3 variables in this model were crystal solution volume with first 24 hours, heart rate and mean arterial pressure. The nomogram of the model showed that the total score between 150 and 230 were advisable.
CONCLUSION
The interpretable machine learning model including simple bedside parameters combined with APACHE II score could effectively identify the risk of death in elderly patients with critically illness.
Humans
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Critical Illness
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Machine Learning
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Aged
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Algorithms
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Intensive Care Units
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Retrospective Studies
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APACHE
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Prognosis
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Organ Dysfunction Scores
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Hospital Mortality
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Male
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Female
2.Innate immune cell LXR-β deficiency exacerbates hepatic injury and fibrosis in murine models of primary sclerosing cholangitis
Xiaohui FANG ; Yang ZHANG ; Junyao WANG ; Yu ZHANG ; Ziliang KE ; Yiken LIN ; Fangyuan CONG ; Feng ZHANG ; Jianhua ZHOU ; Huiting SU ; Shan CAO ; Yulan LIU ; Jun XU
Liver Research 2025;9(3):239-248
Background and aims:Primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC)is an autoimmune liver disease characterized by complex pathogenesis and limited available therapeutic options.The mechanisms underlying the development and progression of PSCs remain unclear.Liver X receptor beta(LXR-β)is recognized to modulate lipid metabolism and immune response,but its specific involvement in the PSC has not been elucidated.Here,we explored the role and mechanism of LXR-β in PSC induced by 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-1,4-dihydro-2,4,6-collidine(DDC).Methods:CRISPR-Cas9 technology was applied to generate Abcb4(coding MDR2,next named as Mdr2),Nr1h2(coding LXR-β,next named as Lxrβ),and Rag2(coding RAG2)knockout mice.DDC was used to induce PSC.Hematoxylin and eosin and Sirius red staining were used to assess the extent of hepatic injury and fibrosis.Flow cytometry was used to observe immune cell subsets.Results:We observed a declining trend in hepatic Lxrβ in the PSC model.Unexpectedly,Lxrβ knockout failed to modulate DDC-induced PSC pathogenesis.Concomitantly,assessment of the influence of Rag2 deficiency on PSC progression revealed the absence of aggravated or alleviated hepatic injury or fibrosis in the Rag2-/-DDC mice.However,Lxrβ depletion intensified DDC-induced PSC in the Rag2-/-mice,with more abundant infiltrative inflammatory cells and more severe liver fibrosis.Compared with Rag2-/-DDC mice,Lxrβ-/-Rag2-/-DDC mice had higher serum ALT and AST levels and mRNA expression of proinflammatory and profibrotic genes.Flow cytometry showed that LXR-β deficiency resulted in a diminished population of hepatic innate immune cells.Conclusion:This study indicated innate immune cell LXR-β deficiency can exacerbate hepatic injury and fibrosis in murine models of PSC suggesting that LXR-β may regulate the function of innate immunity in the fibrotic advancement of PSC.
3.CT-guided lumbar disc injection of autologous platelet-rich plasma combined with pulsed radiofrequency therapy for discogenic back pain:analysis of its therapeutic effect
Guipeng WU ; Xiaoqing XU ; Yulan SHAN ; Yuan ZHOU
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2025;34(9):983-987
Objective To compare the long-term efficacy of intradiscal injection of autologous platelet-rich plasma(PRP)and intradiscal injection of autologous PRP combined with pulsed radiofrequency(PRF)therapy for discogenic back pain(DBP).Methods Prospective inclusion of 98 DBP patients who received treatment at Hai'an People's Hospital from July 2019 to December 2023 was conducted.The patients were randomly divided into study group(receiving PRP combined with PRF,n=50)and control group(receiving PRP only,n=48).The preoperative and the postoperative 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month baseline data,visual analog scale(VAS)score,Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire(RMDQ)score,Leeds Neurological Symptoms and Signs Score(LANSS),European Society for Quality of Life Five Dimensional Questionnaire(EQ-5D)score,and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and analgesic drugs were compared between the two groups.Results There was no statistically significant differences in the baseline data and the incidence of intraoperative and postoperative adverse reactions between the two groups(both P>0.05).At 12 months after surgery,the VAS,RMDQ,LANSS,EQ-5D scores,and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and analgesic drugs in all patients were significantly better than those before surgery(all P<0.05).The postoperative 3-,6-,and 12-month VAS,RMDQ,LANSS,EQ-5D scores,and the analgesic dosage in the study group were significantly better than those in the control group(all P<0.05),and the percentages of patients with pain relief greater than 50%and greater than 80%were also significantly higher than those in the control group(all P<0.01).Conclusion for the treatment of DBP,both CT-guided intradiscal injection of autologous PRP and CT-guided intradiscal injection of autologous PRP combined with PRF can significantly improve pain,body function,and quality of life in DBP patients,and significantly reduce the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and analgesic drugs.The efficacy of autologous PRP combined with PRF is remarkably better than that of autologous PRP alone.
4.Correlation between presenteeism behavior of nurses and patient satisfaction
Caili ZHANG ; Man YU ; Shan BAI ; Yulan CHANG ; Geyan SHAN ; Yongxin LI ; Shujie GUO
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2022;28(10):1328-1332
Objective:To understand the effect of presenteeism behavior of nurses on patient satisfaction and to explore the correlation between them.Methods:This study was a cross-sectional study. In December 2019, the convenient sampling method was adopted to select 500 in-service responsible nurses and 500 inpatients under the charge of the responsible nurses in 5 Class Ⅲ Grade A hospitals in Henan Province as the research objects. The responsible nurses were surveyed by general information questionnaire and Presenteeism Behavior Scale and patients in charge were surveyed by Inpatient Satisfaction and Experience Monitoring Scale.Results:A total of 435 valid questionnaires were collected from responsible nurses and patients in charge. The score of Presenteeism Behavior Scale of 435 nurses was (2.62±0.93) and the score of Inpatient Satisfaction and Experience Monitoring Scale of 435 patients was (4.50±0.49) , showing negative correlation ( r=-0.19, P<0.01) . Conclusions:The level of nurses' presenteeism behavior is at a moderate level and patient satisfaction is at an upper-middle level. Nurses' presenteeism behavior affects patient satisfaction. The higher the incidence of nurses' presenteeism behavior, the lower the patient satisfaction. It is recommended to reduce nurses' presenteeism behavior and improve patient satisfaction.
5.Influences of Cell-ECM Adhesion on Migration of Tumor Cells Regulated by ECM Stiffness: A Model Study
Ying ZHANG ; Yulan WANG ; Kaiqun WANG ; Yan WEI ; Di HUANG ; Weiyi CHEN ; Yanhu SHAN
Journal of Medical Biomechanics 2021;36(4):E604-E611
Objective To study the influence of cell-extracellular matrix (ECM) adhesion on migration of tumor cells regulated by ECM stiffness. Methods The cellular Potts model (CPM) was established to simulate tumor cell growth and cellular immune feedback system. The effects from mechanical behavior of cells on cell-ECM adhesion were observed, and the migration of tumor cells under different ECM was analyzed. Results The ECM stiffness could influence the migration rate of tumor cells. The change of ECM stiffness regulated the adhesion force between cells and ECM, and the change of adhesion force would influence the migration rate of cells. Conclusions The migration and distribution patterns of cells are closely related to the adhesion and stiffness of ECM. The increase in ECM stiffness can effectively promote the migration rate of tumor cells, and the further increase in ECM stiffness inhibits the migration of tumor cells. These findings may further reveal dynamic changes of ECM, adhesion and mechanical performance of tumor cell migration.
6.Clinical, endoscopic, pathologic and prognostic factors of primary gastric lymphoma
Guodong CHEN ; Li GAO ; Shan CAO ; Dingbao CHEN ; Yulan LIU
Chinese Journal of Digestion 2017;37(7):438-441
Objective To explore the clinical,endoscopic,pathologic and prognostic characteristics of primary gastric lymphoma (PGL) and to improve the level of diagnosis and treatment.Methods Sixtythree patients who were confirmed as PGL with operation and endoscopic biopsy pathology during January 2001 to December 2010 were retrospectively analyzed with respects of clinical,endoscopic and pathologic features.Survival analysis and prognosis were evaluated by kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model,respectively.Results In 63 PGL patients,the numbers of male and female were 40 and 23,respectively,and the average age was (59.8±13.3)years.The major symptoms were abdominal pain,abdominal distension,and gastrointestinal hemorrhage,accounting for 47.6 % (30/63),17.5 % (11/63),and 17.5 % (11/63),respectively.There were 39 (61.9 %) PGL patients with endoscopic performance for ulcers,34 (54.0 %) cases involved the gastric stomach antrum.The most immunohistochemistry analyses were diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (71.4 %,45/63),followed by mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma (22.2%,14/63).The frequency of Helicobacter pylori (H.pylori) positivity was lower in patients with DLBCL than that in patients with MALT lymphoma (37.8%(17/45) vs 10/14,x2 =4.872,P=0.027).The accumulate survival rates of one,three and five years were 74.6%,63.5%,55.6%,respectively,and the average survival time was (41.5±3.0) months (95% confidence interval (CI) 35.7 to 47.4 months) in PGL patients.There was no difference in the average survival time between DLBCL patients treated with surgery combined chemotherapy and those with surgery or chemotherapy alone (38.33±5.21) months vs (50.17±8.98) months vs (41.39±4.40) months,P>0.05).The patients diagnosed as DLBCL with H.pylori positive had longer average survival time than those with H.pylori negative ((51.90±4.30) months vs (33.30±4.50) months,t=-4.004,P<0.01).Conclusions Male patients with PGL are slightly more than female.Abdominal pain is the most frequent symptom.Ulcerative lesions are the most common endoscopic demonstrations mostly at stomach sinus.DLBCL is the most pathologic characteristic.There is no significant difference in the survival rate between patients treated with surgery combined with chemotherapy and those treated with surgery or chemotherapy alone.
7.Salivary exosomal PSMA7: a promising biomarker of inflammatory bowel disease.
Xiaowen ZHENG ; Feng CHEN ; Qian ZHANG ; Yulan LIU ; Peng YOU ; Shan SUN ; Jiuxiang LIN ; Ning CHEN
Protein & Cell 2017;8(9):686-695
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an intestinal immune-dysfunctional disease worldwide whose prevalence increasing in Asia including China. It is a chronic disease of the gastrointestinal tract with unknown cause. Exosomes are small vesicles in various body fluids. They have diameters of 40-120 nm, and one of their functions is long-distance transfer of various substances. In this study, we investigated the contents of salivary exosomes in patients with IBD and in healthy controls to explore a new biomarker in patients with IBD. In this study, whole saliva was obtained from patients with IBD (ulcerative colitis (UC), n = 37; Crohn's disease (CD), n = 11) and apparently healthy individuals (HC, n = 10). Salivary exosomes were extracted from samples, and the proteins within the exosomes were identified by liquid chromatograph-mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS). The results showed that more than 2000 proteins were detected in salivary exosomes from patients with IBD. Through gene ontology analysis, we found that proteasome subunit alpha type 7 (PSMA7) showed especially marked differences between patients with IBD and the healthy controls, in that its expression level was much higher in the CD and UC groups. This exosomal protein is related to proteasome activity and inflammatory responses. So we conclude that in this research, salivary exosomal PSMA7 was present at high levels in salivary exosomes from subjects with IBD. It can be a very promising biomarker to release the patients from the pain of colonoscopy.
Animals
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Biomarkers
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metabolism
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Female
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Humans
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Inflammatory Bowel Diseases
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metabolism
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Male
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Proteasome Endopeptidase Complex
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metabolism
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Salivary Proteins and Peptides
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metabolism
8.Exploring how to Improve the Quality Control of Medical Instrument Clinical Trials
Shan JING ; Huaying FAN ; Lijue WANG ; Hao WANG ; Yulan LIU
Chinese Journal of Medical Science Research Management 2015;28(1):5-7,12
Objective To improve the quality of medical device clinical trial.Methods To analyze medical device clinical trials conducted in our hospital from 2006 to 2010,and proposed the strategy to strengthen medical device clinical trial management.Results Most of the medical devices clinical trials were class Ⅲ medical devices clinical validation in our hospital,Surgical departments undertook most of the clinical trials.Until July 2013,49 trials were done only 56% of undertake the project.96% of completed trials were approved for medical device registration certificate.Conclusions The quality of clinical trials must be improved,andthe quality control process in medical device clinical trial should be reinforced.
9.Clinical implications of positive peritoneal cytology in endometrial cancer
Yulan REN ; Huaying WANG ; Boer SHAN ; Bo PING ; Daren SHI
Chinese Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2011;46(8):595-599
Objective To evaluate the clinical significance of positive peritoneal cytology in patients with endometrial cancer.Methods The records of 315 patients with endometrial cancer who were operated at Cancer Hospital, Fudan University between January 1996 and December 2008 were reviewed.Peritoneal cytology were performed and diagnosed in all patients.Factors related with peritoneal cytology were analyzed by correlation analysis.Log-rank test and Cox regression test was used for the analysis of prognosis,respectively.Results (1) Peritoneal cytology were positive in 30 (9.5%) patients.Positive peritoneal cytology was associated with pathological subtype ( P = 0.013 ), stage ( P = 0.000 ), myometrial invasion ( P =0.012), lymph-vascular space invasion ( P = 0.012 ), serosal involvement ( P = 0.004 ), cervical involvement ( P = 0.016), adnexal involvement ( P = 0.000), and omental involvement ( P = 0.000), with no association with grade ( P = 0.152 ) and lymph node metastasis ( P = 0.066 ).( 2 ) Three-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival(PFS) were 93.0% and 85.5% ,respectively.Positive peritoneal cytology, surgical stage, pathological subtype, myometrial invasion, grade, and lymph-vascular space invasion were significantly associated with worse prognosis by univariate analysis ( P < 0.05 ), while only surgical-pathology stage and myometrial invasion were independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis ( P < 0.05 ).For 30 cases with positive peritoneal cytology, the patients with no high risk factors shown significantly prognoses better than those with any risk factors.The results shown that for patients with late stage (stage Ⅲ - Ⅳ ) endometrial cancer with positive peritoneal cytology was significantly associated with the worse OS and PFS by multivariate analysis ( P = 0.006).Conclusions Positive peritoneal cytology was associated with serosal involvement, cervical involvement, adnexal involvement, omental involvement, and late stage.Therefore, peritoneal cytology should be performed and reported separately as a part of full surgical staging procedure.
10.Clinical significance of Her-2/neu status in patients with uterine papillary serous carcinoma
Yulan REN ; Huaying WANG ; Xiaoyan ZHOU ; Boer SHAN ; Wentao YANG ; Lei SHEN ; Daren SHI
Chinese Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2010;45(5):367-371
Objective The purpose of this study was to evaluate gene amplification by chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH) and the protein expression of Her-2/neu gene in patients with uterine papillary serous carcinoma ( UPSC) and to determine its prognostic value.Methods Thirty-six patients with confirmed pathologic diagnosis of UPSC in Cancer Hospital of Fudan University from Jan.1996 to Jan.2006,were analysed retrospectively.CISH was performed to assess Her-2/neu gene amplification,and protein expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC).The prognostic factors were analyzed by log-rank test or Cox proportional hazard model.Results Among 36 cases with UPSC,13 patients (36.1% ) showed moderate staining (++) to strong staining (+++) for Her-2/neu protein,while amplification of the Her-2/neu gene by CISH was observed in 4 of the 36 (11.1% ) cases.Her-2/neu protein over-expression was significantly associated with advanced surgical stage and worse prognosis by univariate analysis ( P = 0.030 and P = 0.002,respectively),while the multivariate analysis shown that only Her-2/neu protein over-expression and deep myometrial invasion were associated with a poor prognosis ( P < 0.05 ).In 13patients with Her-2/neu protein over-expression,the mean survival period with chemotherapy was shorter than those without chemotherapy (20 vs.42 months,P = 0.370 ).Conclusion Her-2/neu protein over-expression is significantly associated with advanced surgical stage UPSC and poor survival outcome,and might reduce the chemotherapy sensitivity.

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