Objective:To investigate the risk factors for esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis,to establish a predictive model,and to provide reasonable guidance for the prevention of early esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed for 1 113 patients with liver cirrhosis who attended the hospitals in Chongqing,China from Decem-ber 2006 to May 2021.Recursive feature elimination(RFE)and four machine learning methods were used for the screening of features,and five machine learning predictive models were established by logistic regression,random forest,support vector machine(SVM),de-cision tree,and eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the per-formance of each model,and the model with the best performance was used to investigate the risk factors for esophageal varices in pa-tients with liver cirrhosis.SHAP plots were used to explain the impact of each risk factor on patients.Results:The XGBoost model showed the best performance in predicting the risk of esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.872(95%CI=0.813-0.918).SHAP plots showed that platelet count,diameter of the portal vein,cholinesterase,albumin,ala-nine aminotransferase,hemoglobin,prothrombin ratio,prothrombin time,and serum total protein were risk factors for esophageal vari-ces in patients with liver cirrhosis.Conclusion:This study shows that the XGBoost predictive model has a relatively high predictive value,and the risk factors obtained by this model have a certain guiding significance for the clinical prevention and treatment of early esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Objective:To investigate whether the necroptosis pathway receptor interacting protein 1-receptor interacting protein 3-mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein (RIP1-RIP3-MLKL) is involved in fluoride-induced osteoblastic death.Methods:Human osteosarcoma cell line (Saos-2 cells) were cultured in vitro and divided into NC group, sodium fluoride (NaF) groups (5.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 mg/L NaF), necroptosis inhibitor Necrostatin-1 (Nec-1) group (50.0 μmol/L Nec-1) and NaF + Nec-1 groups (5.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 mg/L NaF + 50.0 μmol/L Nec-1). After cultured for 24 and 48 h, respectively, cell proliferation was determined via the CCK-8 method, and the activity of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was determined by chemical colorimetry. To further analyze the influence of NaF on RIP1-RIP3-MLKL pathway, Saos-2 cells were divided into NCⅡgroup and NaFⅡgroups (2.5, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 mg/L NaF). After cultured for 24 and 48 h, respectively, the protein expression levels of RIP1, RIP3 and MLKL were determined by Western blotting. Results:The cell proliferation rates (%: 100.00 ± 0.59, 104.90 ± 0.44, 104.16 ± 0.41, 82.45 ± 1.91, 64.59 ± 1.83, 103.56 ± 0.41, 107.18 ± 0.87, 105.35 ± 1.28, 89.63 ± 1.20, 77.51 ± 1.30; 100.00 ± 0.33, 107.92 ± 0.44, 101.78 ± 1.06, 75.45 ± 0.39, 57.94 ± 1.17, 106.74 ± 0.21, 111.85 ± 0.21, 107.82 ± 0.68, 82.34 ± 0.56, 70.19 ± 0.99) among all groups were significantly different at both 24 and 48 h ( F = 77.13, 2 313.43, P < 0.05). Except the cell proliferation rate of the 10.0 mg/L NaF + Nec-1 group that was not significantly different with that of the 10.0 mg/L NaF group at 24 h ( P > 0.05), the cell proliferation rates of other NaF + Nec-1 groups were significantly higher than those of corresponding NaF groups at both 24 and 48 h ( P < 0.05). The proliferation rate was negatively correlated with fluoride concentration ( r24 h = - 0.976, r48 h = - 0.969, P < 0.001). The LDH activity in all concentrations of NaF groups was significantly higher than that in NC group and corresponding NaF + Nec-1 groups at both 24 and 48 h ( P < 0.05). The LDH activity was positively correlated with fluoride concentration ( r24 h = 0.985, r48 h = 0.988, P < 0.001). The protein expression levels of RIP1, RIP3 and MLKL of 5.0 mg/L NaFⅡ group at 24 h, RIP3 of 5.0 mg/L NaFⅡ group at 48 h, and RIP1, RIP3 and MLKL of 10.0, 20.0 and 40.0 mg/L NaFⅡ groups at both 24 and 48 h were higher than that in NCⅡ group ( P < 0.05). The protein expression levels of RIP1, RIP3 and MLKL were positively correlated with fluoride concentration ( r24 h-RIP1 = 0.881, r48 h-RIP1 = 0.952, r24 h-RIP3 = 0.867, r48 h-RIP3 = 0.938, r24 h-MLKL = 0.758, r48 h-MLKL = 0.907, P < 0.001). Conclusion:Fluoride can directly cause necroptosis of osteoblasts through the RIP1-RIP3-MLKL pathway, and the severity of cell damage is closely related to fluoride concentration, Nec-1 has partially reversed the effects of fluoride.