Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.

Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.

This study aims to investigate the protective effects and mechanisms of polysaccharide extract PCP1 from Polygonatum cyrtonema in ameliorating cerebral ischemia-reperfusion(I/R) injury in rats through modulation of the Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4)/NOD-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3) signaling pathway. In vivo, SD rats were randomly divided into the sham group, model group, PCP1 group, nimodipine(NMDP) group, and TLR4 signaling inhibitor(TAK-242) group. A middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion(MCAO/R) model was established, and neurological deficit scores and infarct size were evaluated 24 hours after reperfusion. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in ischemic brain tissue. Transmission electron microscopy(TEM) assessed ultrastructural damage in cortical neurons. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was used to measure the levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-6(IL-6), interleukin-18(IL-18), tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), interleukin-10(IL-10), and nitric oxide(NO) in serum. Immunofluorescence was used to analyze the expression of TLR4 and NLRP3 proteins. In vitro, a BV2 microglial cell oxygen-glucose deprivation/reperfusion(OGD/R) model was established, and cells were divided into the control, OGD/R, PCP1, TAK-242, and PCP1 + TLR4 activator lipopolysaccharide(LPS) groups. The CCK-8 assay evaluated BV2 cell viability, and ELISA determined NO release. Western blot was used to analyze the expression of TLR4, NLRP3, and downstream pathway-related proteins. The results indicated that, compared with the model group, PCP1 significantly reduced neurological deficit scores, infarct size, ischemic tissue pathology, cortical cell damage, and the levels of inflammatory factors IL-1β, IL-6, IL-18, TNF-α, and NO(P<0.01). It also elevated IL-10 levels(P<0.01) and decreased the expression of TLR4 and NLRP3 proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, in vitro results showed that, compared with the OGD/R group, PCP1 significantly improved BV2 cell viability(P<0.05, P<0.01), reduced cell NO levels induced by OGD/R(P<0.01), and inhibited the expression of TLR4-related inflammatory pathway proteins, including TLR4, myeloid differentiation factor 88(MyD88), tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6(TRAF6), phosphorylated nuclear factor-kappaB dimer RelA(p-p65)/nuclear factor-kappaB dimer RelA(p65), NLRP3, cleaved-caspase-1, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein(ASC), GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18(P<0.05, P<0.01). The protective effects of PCP1 were reversed by LPS stimulation. In conclusion, PCP1 ameliorates cerebral I/R injury by modulating the TLR4/NLRP3 signaling pathway, exerting anti-inflammatory and anti-pyroptotic effects.
Animals ; Toll-Like Receptor 4/genetics* ; NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/genetics* ; Rats, Sprague-Dawley ; Rats ; Reperfusion Injury/genetics* ; Male ; Signal Transduction/drug effects* ; Polysaccharides/isolation & purification* ; Polygonatum/chemistry* ; Brain Ischemia/genetics* ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage* ; Mice ; Humans

OBJECTIVE: To explore the therapeutic effect of acupuncture for spastic cerebral palsy in infancy stage. METHODS: A total of 62 children with spastic cerebral palsy were randomized into an observation group and a control group, 31 cases in each one. Both groups were given comprehensive rehabilitation therapy (sport therapy, electronic biofeedback therapy, speech cognitive training, massage therapy). On the basis of comprehensive rehabilitation therapy, the acupuncture group was treated with acupuncture at Baihui (GV 20), Sishencong (EX-HN1), motor area, Jiaji (EX-B 2), Weizhong (BL 40), Xuanzhong (GB 39), Zusanli (ST 36) and Hegu (LI 4), etc, the needles were retained for 15-20 min each time, once a day, 5 days a week, 45 days as a course with 10 days interval, a total of 3 courses were required. The Gesell development scale adaptive DQ scores, gross motor function measure (GMFM88) and muscular tension of adductor and gastrocnemius muscle were compared before and after treatment in the two groups. RESULTS: The Gesell development scale adaptive DQ score after treatment in the observation group was increased (<0.05), there was no significant difference before and after treatment in the control group (>0.05), the change of the observation group was larger than the control group (<0.05). After treatment, the GMFM88 scores in the two groups were significantly increased (<0.05), the change of the observation group was larger than the control group (<0.05). After treatment, the muscular tension of the adductor in the two groups were decreased (<0.05), the change of the observation group was larger than the control group (<0.05). After treatment, the muscle tension of the gastrocnemius muscle in the two groups were decreased (<0.05), there was no significant difference between the two groups in the variation range (>0.05). CONCLUSION Acupuncture combined with comprehensive rehabilitation therapy can improve cognitive function, spasticity and motor function of children with spastic cerebral palsy.
Acupuncture Points ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Cerebral Palsy ; therapy ; Child ; Humans ; Infant ; Muscle Spasticity ; Needles

Autism spectrum disorder(ASD) is a group of multi-factor brain development disorders. At present,ASD treatment is still based on behavioral intervention,for there are no specific drugs. ASD comorbidities are extremely common in children with ASD,and the presence of comorbidities has an important impact on the treatment and prognosis of ASD. In recent years,the etiology and behavioral intervention of ASD has become a research hotspot at home and abroad,but there are few studies on comorbidity and drug intervention. Therefore,we summarize relevant literatures at home and abroad, hoping to be helpful for clinical research on ASD comorbidity and drug treatment.

OBJECTIVETo study the role of slow-release 5-fluorouracil implantation in treatment of unresectable pancreatic cancer.

METHODS85 cases of untreated patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) were randomized into two groups: Trial group: slow-release 5-fluorouracil implantation (50 patients) and control group (35 patients). Observing the objective tumor response, clinical benefit response, toxicity, complications and survival of patients of the two groups.

RESULTSIn the trial group the overall response rate (PR + NC) was 76.0%, and the clinical benefit response rate was 52.0%. No toxicity was observed. Pancreatic fistula occurred in 2 patients. The median survival time of the two groups was 9.0 months and 4.0 months, respectively. The survival rates of 6- and 12-month were 56.8% vs. 31.4% and 22.9% vs. 2.9% in the two groups, respectively (P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONSlow-release 5-fluorouracil implantation is a simple, safe and effective method in treatment of LAPC.

Antimetabolites, Antineoplastic ; administration & dosage ; therapeutic use ; Drug Implants ; adverse effects ; Female ; Fluorouracil ; administration & dosage ; therapeutic use ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Male ; Microspheres ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Staging ; Pancreatic Fistula ; etiology ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; drug therapy ; pathology ; Prospective Studies ; Remission Induction ; Survival Rate

OBJECTIVETo investigate the method and value of tru-cut biopsy (TCB) combined with fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) in the pathological diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma during operation.

METHODSFrom April 2007 to October 2008, 22 cases who were suspected to suffer from pancreatic carcinoma were enrolled into this prospective study. All of them underwent a tru-cut biopsy combined with fine needle aspiration biopsy for the pathological diagnosis during operation.

RESULTSOf the 22 patients, 20 were finally diagnosed as having pancreatic carcinoma, while 2 having pancreatitis. The diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma was confirmed in 19 by tru-cut biopsy combined with fine needle aspiration biopsy, while other 3 cases were not confirmed as pancreatic carcinoma. Among those 3 cases, one was diagnosed as having pancreatic carcinoma with hepatic metastasis by liver nodular biopsy, one as suffering from autoimmune pancreatitis, and another case as having chronic pancreatitis confirmed by follow-up for 9 months without any changes after the operation. The accuracy of FNA, TCB and FNA combined with TCB in the diagnosis for suspected pancreatic cancer were 86.4%, 90.9%, and 95.5%, respectively. No pancreatic fistula and bleeding developed after operation.

CONCLUSIONTru-cut biopsy is more accurate in diagnosis for the suspected pancreatic cancer than fine needle aspiration biopsy during operation. Tru-cut biopsy combined with fine needle aspiration biopsy can improve the accuracy of diagnosis, and is a safe and effective diagnostic method.

Biopsy, Fine-Needle ; methods ; Biopsy, Needle ; methods ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Intraoperative Period ; Liver Neoplasms ; diagnosis ; pathology ; secondary ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pancreas ; pathology ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; diagnosis ; pathology ; Pancreatitis ; diagnosis ; pathology ; Prospective Studies