ObjectiveThis paper aims to observe the role of Danlou tablet in treating coronary heart disease （CHD） with phlegm-stasis intermingling syndrome in minipigs by improving platelet function and explore the potential pharmacological mechanism of Danlou tablet in regulating platelet function by using proteomics technology. MethodsThirty Bama minipigs were randomly divided into a normal control group （6 pigs） and a high-fat diet group （24 pigs）. After 2 weeks of high-fat diet feeding， the high-fat diet group was randomly subdivided into a model group， an atorvastatin group （1 mg·kg^-1）， and Danlou tablet groups （0.6 g·kg^-1 and 0.3 g·kg^-1）. All groups continued to receive a high-fat diet for 8 weeks after the procedure. The normal control group was given a regular diet， underwent only coronary angiography， and did not receive an interventional injury procedure. The model group and each administration group were fed a high-fat diet. Two weeks later， they underwent a coronary angiography injury procedure. After the procedure， drugs were mixed into the feed every morning for 8 consecutive weeks， with the minipigs maintained on a continuous high-fat diet during this period. Quantitative proteomics technology was further used to study platelet proteins， and differential proteins were obtained by screening. Bioinformatics analysis was performed to analyze key regulatory proteins and biological pathways involved in the therapeutic effect of Danlou tablet on CHD with phlegm-stasis intermingling syndrome. ResultsCompared with the normal control group， the model group showed a significant increase in total cholesterol （TC）， triglyceride （TG）， high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （HDL-C）， and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL-C） of minipigs' serum （P<0.01）， a significant shortening in prothrombin time of （PT） （P<0.01）， a coagulation function index， and an increase in whole blood viscosity （P<0.01） and platelet aggregation rate （P<0.01）. Moreover， the platelet morphology was altered， and the contents of endothelin-1 （ET-1） and nitric oxide （NO） were significantly increased （P<0.01）. Hemodynamic parameters were obviously abnormal， including significantly decreased systolic blood pressure （SBP）， diastolic blood pressure （DBP）， mean arterial pressure （MAP）， left ventricular systolic pressure （LVSP）， and left ventricular maximal positive dp/dt （LV+dp/dt_max） （P<0.01）. Left ventricular maximal negative dp/dt （LV-dp/dt_max） was significantly increased （P<0.01）. Besides， there were myocardial cell hypertrophy， obvious edematous degeneration， massive interstitial inflammatory cell infiltration， high degree of fibrosis， and coronary endothelial atherosclerosis. TC and TG levels in minipigs' serum were significantly reduced in Danlou tablet groups with 0.6 g·kg^-1 and 0.3 g·kg^-1 （P<0.05， P<0.01）， compared with those in the model group. LDL-C was decreased in the Danlou tablet group with 0.6 g·kg^-1 （P<0.05）. The whole blood viscosity under low and high shear conditions was significantly reduced in the Danlou tablet group with 0.6 g·kg^-1 （P<0.05）. In groups with all doses of Danlou tablet， maximum aggregation rate （MAR） and average aggregation rate （AAR） were significantly decreased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and platelets' morphological changes such as pseudopodia extension were reduced. ET-1 levels in the serum were significantly reduced. In the Danlou tablet group with 0.6 g·kg^-1， NO level in the serum was reduced （P<0.05）. In groups with all doses of Danlou tablet， DBP and MAP were significantly increased （P<0.05）. In the Danlou tablet group with 0.6 g·kg^-1， LVSP and LV+dp/dt_max were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and LV-dp/dt_max was significantly decreased （P<0.05）. In groups with all doses of Danlou tablet， edematous degeneration in myocardial tissue was milder， and coronary artery lesion degree was significantly alleviated. Compared with the normal control group， there were 94 differentially expressed proteins in the model group， including 81 up-regulated and 13 down-regulated proteins. Compared with the model group， the Danlou tablet group with 0.6 g·kg^-1 showed 174 differentially expressed proteins， including 100 up-regulated and 74 down-regulated proteins. A total of 30 proteins were reversed after Danlou tablet intervention. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that its pharmacological mechanism may exert anti-platelet activation， aggregation， and adhesion effects through biological pathways such as regulation of actin cytoskeleton， platelet activation pathway， Fcγ receptor-mediated phagocytosis， as well as proteins such as growth factor receptor-bound protein 2 （GRB2）， Ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 2 （RAC2）， RAC1， and heat shock protein 90 alpha family class A member 1 （HSP90AA1）. ConclusionDanlou tablet can effectively reduce platelet activation and aggregation， exerting a good therapeutic effect on CHD with phlegm-stasis intermingling syndrome in minipigs. Its pharmacological mechanism may involve regulating biological pathways such as actin cytoskeleton and platelet activation pathway， as well as proteins like GRB2， RAC2， RAC1， and HSP90AA1， thereby exerting a pharmacological effect in anti-platelet activation， aggregation， and adhesion.

ObjectiveTo investigate the feasibility， safety， and efficacy of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt （SA-TIPS） in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis， including cavernous transformation of the portal vein （CTPV）. MethodsAn analysis was performed for the data of 36 patients with portal hypertension and complex portal vein thrombosis who underwent SA-TIPS in Beijing Shijitan Hospital， Capital Medical University， from November 2023 to January 2025， including general status， technical data of the surgical process （surgical success rate， puncture times， time of operation， the number of stents used， and the length of shunt）， perioperative complications， and surgical recovery. The change in portal pressure gradient （PPG） after shunt was compared， and the rate of reaching the standard for PPG reduction was calculated， as well as stent patency rate within 1 week after surgery. The paired samples t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups. ResultsAmong the 36 patients， 34 （94.4%） underwent SA-TIPS successfully. The incidence rate of perioperative complications was 16.7% （6/36）， including 3 cases of thoraco-abdominal hemorrhage， 2 cases of intraoperative arrhythmia， and 1 case of incision infection. There was a significant reduction in PPG after SA-TIPS （t=19.85， P<0.01）， and the patients achieving a ≥50% reduction in PPG accounted for 76.5% （26/34）. Imaging reexamination within 1 week showed a shunt patency rate of 100%. ConclusionSA-TIPS has a high technical success rate， a favorable safety profile， and good efficacy in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis （including CTPV）， and therefore， it holds promise for clinical application.

ObjectiveThis paper aims to observe the protective effect of Huamoyan granules on knee osteoarthritis （KOA） and explore whether its protective effect is oriented toward an anti-inflammatory direction by regulation of macrophage polarization， which can effectively inhibit the progression of pathological inflammatory response， reduce the release of inflammatory pain mediators， and downregulate the protein expression level of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 （TRPV1）， so as to provide experimental evidence for its clinical application and investigate its action mechanism. MethodsAfter adaptive feeding， Sprague-Dawley （SD） rats were randomly divided into six groups： sham group， model group， celecoxib group， and high， medium， and low-dose synovitis granule groups （9.6， 4.8， 2.4 g·kg^-1）. The administration dose of celecoxib capsules was 20 mg·kg^-1. There were 10 rats in the sham group and 12 rats in the model group and each administration group. A KOA animal model was established by means of intra-articular injection of sodium iodoacetate into the knee joint. From the 10^th day of the experiment， each administration group was given intragastric administration at a dose of 10 mL·kg^-1 for 4 weeks. General conditions of rats in each group were assessed daily. The pressure pain threshold （PPT） to mechanical stimulation and joint diameter were recorded. X-ray examination was performed on the right knee joints of rats for imaging analysis. Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was performed to detect the tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， serum interleukin-1β （IL-1β）， and other pro-inflammatory cytokines in rat serum samples， as well as the expression levels of neurogenic inflammatory mediators such as nerve growth factor （NGF） and calcitonin gene-related peptide （CGRP）. Histopathological changes in the knee joint synovial tissues were examined by hematoxylineosin （HE） staining. Safranin O-fast green staining was performed to observe and evaluate the degree of knee cartilage lesions. Western blot was employed to quantitatively analyze TRPV1， p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase （p38 MAPK）， and phosphorylated （p）-p38 MAPK in rat knee synovial tissues. Immunofluorescence （IF） was used to measure and assess M1/M2 macrophage polarization. ResultsCompared with those in the sham group， the circumference and joint diameter of the right knee were markedly enlarged in the model group （P<0.01）， while PPTs of rats showed a significant reduction （P<0.01）. The contents of IL-1β， TNF-α， CGRP， and NGF in rats' serum were significantly elevated （P<0.01）， and the synovial Krenn score was increased （P<0.01）. The Mankin score of cartilage tissue was increased （P<0.01）， and the protein expressions of TRPV1 and p-p38 MAPK/p38 MAPK were significantly upregulated （P<0.01）. The experimental intervention significantly reduced the proportion of pro-inflammatory M1 macrophages in the total macrophage population （P<0.01）， and the percentage of M2 macrophages was decreased （P<0.01）. The M1/M2 macrophage ratio was significantly elevated （P<0.01）. Knee joint diameters of all dose groups of Huamoyan granules and the celecoxib group were reduced （P<0.01） compared with those of the model group， and the PPT recovery speeds in the high and medium-dose groups of Huamoyan granules were more obvious （P<0.05）. The contents of IL-1β， CGRP， and NGF in the rats' serum in all administration groups were significantly reduced （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and the content of TNF-α in rats' serum was significantly reduced （P<0.01）. All dose groups of Huamoyan granules demonstrated significant reductions in both synovial Krenn score （P<0.05， P<0.01） and protein expression of TRPV1 and p-p38 MAPK/p38 MAPK in rats' synovial tissues （P<0.01）. The percentage of M1 macrophages in the synovial tissues of the celecoxib group and all dose groups of Huamoyan granules was decreased （P<0.01）. The percentage of M2 macrophages was increased （P<0.05）， and the M1/M2 ratio was decreased （P<0.01）. ConclusionHuamoyan granules can alleviate the inflammatory response of KOA， reduce the release of inflammatory pain mediators， and downregulate TRPV1 protein expression by regulating macrophage polarization. Its mechanism may be related to the TRPV1/p38 MAPK signaling pathway， thereby achieving the effect of improving peripheral pain hypersensitivity in KOA.

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib combined with low-dose hormone for patients with acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Methods: Thirty patients with aGVHD after allo-HSCT admitted to the Department of Hematology of the General Hospital of Western Theater Command from November 2021 to November 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were treated with low-dose hormone (methylprednisolone 0.3-1 mg kg -d ) combined with ruxolitinib 5-10 mg d . The efficacy and adverse reactions were observed during the follow-up period to analyze the survival outcomes of the patients. Results: A total of 30 patients with aGVHD after allo-HSCT were included in this study, consisting of 15 (50%) males and 15 (50%) females with a median age of 34 year-old (ranging from 14 to 62). Classification by disease type: there were 18 cases of acute myeloid leukemia, 4 cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 4 cases of aplastic anemia, and 4 cases of myelodysplastic syndrome. Classification by aGVHD severity: there were 27 cases (90%) of Ⅱ-Ⅳ degree aGVHD and 11 cases (36.7%) of Ⅲ-Ⅳ degree aGVHD. Ruxolitinib in combination with low-dose glucocorticoid treatment yield responses in 28 (93.3%) patients, of which 27 (90%) achieved complete remission (CR), while 1 (3.3%) showed partial remission (PR). One patient (3.3%) had no response (NR), and 1 patient (3.3%) exhibited progressed disease (PD). Overall survival (OS) at 1 year of transplantation was 73.9% (95%CI 49.5% to 87.7%), progression-free survival (PFS) was 93.3% (95%CI 75.9% to 98.3%), non-relapse mortality (NRM) was 20.6% (95%CI 7.9% to 47.4%), and median survival time was 27.6 months. Conclusion: Ruxolitinib combined with low-dose hormones is safe and effective in the treatment of aGVHD after allo-HSCT.

OBJECTIVE To establish the UPLC fingerprint and the method for multi-component content determination in Jingangteng capsules， and to evaluate its quality by combining chemical pattern recognition analysis. METHODS An UPLC method was established. Separation was performed on a Zorbax SB-C 18 Rapid Resolution HD column， with acetonitrile-0.1% formic acid as the mobile phase for gradient elution.Using the Similarity Evaluation System for Chromatographic Fingerprints of Traditional Chinese Medicines （2012 edition）， UPLC fi ngerprints were established for 10 batches of Jingangteng capsules， and similarity was evaluated. SPSS 22.0 and SIMCA 14.1 software were used to perform hierarchial-cluster analysis and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis （OPLS-DA）， respectively. The same UPLC method was employed to determine the contents of chlorogenic acid， 3，5-dihydroxy-2-methylbenzoic acid-3- O -glucoside （M1）， caffeic acid， astilbin， oxyresveratrol， quercitrin and resveratrol in the 10 batches of samples. RESULTS A total of 17 common peaks were identified in UPLC fingerprints of the 10 batches of samples， of which 7 were identified as chlorogenic acid， M1， caffeic acid， astilbin， oxyresveratrol， quercitrin， and resveratrol. The similarities of 10 batches of samples ranged from 0.820 to 0.985. The results of hierarchial-cluster analysis showed that 10 batches of samples were grouped into four categories： S1-S4 formed one group， S5 and S6 formed another， S7， S8 and S10 formed a third， and S9 formed a fourth， consistent with the OPLS-DA results； the variable importance projection values for peaks 7， 10， 2， 16 （resveratrol）， 13 （oxyresveratrol）， 11， 6 （caffeic acid）， 5 （M1） and 15 （quercitrin） were ＞1. Quantitative analysis results showed that the contents of chlorogenic acid， M1， caffeic acid， astilbin， oxyresveratrol， quercitrin， and resveratrol were 1.650 8-4.213 7， 0.636 2-2.161 7， 0.031 0-0.086 5， 0.239 1-1.069 3， 0.211 9-1.104 0， 0.488 8-2.399 2， and 0.164 0-0.699 8 mg/g， respectively. CONCLUSIONS UPLC fingerprint and content determination methods established in this study are simple to operate， accurate， reliable and reproducible； when combined with chemical pattern recognition analysis， they can be used to evaluate the quality of Jingangteng capsules. Nine components， such as resveratrol， oxyresveratrol， caffeic acid， M1 and quercitrin， may serve as markers of quality variation.

BACKGROUND: Changes in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels may not fully translate into patient-reported health status in patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to evaluate the correlation between NT-proBNP levels and patient-reported health status changes at one month after discharge of patients, and their associations with risk of death and rehospitalization in patients with acute HF. METHODS: We used data from the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Prospective Heart Failure Study (PEACE 5p-HF Study). Patient-reported health status was measured by the 12-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12). Patients who were hospitalized for HF and completed the KCCQ-12 and NT-proBNP tests before and one month after discharge were eligible in our study. We stratified patients into different groups based on NT-proBNP levels (i.e., improved, stable, and deteriorated) and KCCQ-12 scores (i.e., not deteriorated and deteriorated). We also examined the associations of the joint NT-proBNP and KCCQ-12 change with the risk of one-year and four-year clinical outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 2461 patients were included in the analysis. The mean age was 64.06 ± 13.51 years, and 36.37% (895/2461) of the study population were female. Among patients with improved NT-proBNP levels, 115 (10.95%) patients had deteriorated KCCQ-12 scores. The correlation between the change in the KCCQ-12 score and NT-proBNP level was weak ( r2 = 0.002, P = 0.013). Stratification by changes in the KCCQ-12 score revealed subgroups with distinctive risks, such that patients with deteriorated KCCQ-12 scores in any of the NT-proBNP change groups exhibited an increased risk of one-year all-cause death than participants with not deteriorated KCCQ-12 scores in any of the NT-proBNP change groups. Patients with improved NT-proBNP levels and deteriorated KCCQ-12 scores presented greater risks of one-year all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-4.48) than patients with stable NT-proBNP levels and not deteriorated KCCQ-12 scores (HR [95% CI], 1.77 [1.25-2.53]). CONCLUSIONS: A discrepancy between changes in NT-proBNP levels and KCCQ-12 scores was common. The change in NT-proBNP levels was not sufficient to characterize critical aspects related to HF during one month after discharge of patients. Changes in the KCCQ-12 score exhibit complementary information to NT-proBNP levels for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with acute HF. REGISTRATION www.clinicaltrials.gov (No. NCT02878811).
Aged ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Health Status ; Heart Failure/metabolism* ; Natriuretic Peptide, Brain/metabolism* ; Peptide Fragments/metabolism* ; Prospective Studies

To study the ameliorative effect of Eucommiae Cortex extract on spatial learning disabilities in APP/PS1 double-transgenic mice and explore its relationship with estrogen receptor β(ERβ)/c-Jun N-terminal kinase(JNK) signaling pathway, sixty 3-month-old male APP/PS1 mice were randomly divided into a model group, an anti-brain failure capsule group(0.585 g·kg~(-1)), a donepezil hydrochloride group(0.65 mg·kg~(-1)), and a Eucommiae Cortex extract group(1.3 g·kg~(-1)), and 15 C57BL/6 mice of the same genetic background were set as WT control group. The learning and memory ability of mice was assessed by the Morris water maze test(MWM), the passive avoidance test(PAT), and the novel object recognition test(NOR). The histomorphological and cellular ultrastructural features of the hippocampal region of the mice were observed by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining and transmission electron microscopy(TEM); the molecular docking validation of the key active ingredients and the key targets was performed by using AutoDock Vina software, and the immunohistochemical method(IHC) was used to detect the ERβ expression in the dentate gyrus(DG) area of mouse hippocampus. Western blot(WB) was utilized to detect the expression of ERβ, p-JNK, and JNK in mouse hippocampal area. Compared with those in the WT control group, the results of behavioral experiments showed that the latency of the mice in the model group was significantly increased, the number of platform traversals, and the target quadrant residence time were significantly decreased in the MWM. The evasion latency was significantly reduced, and the number of errors was significantly increased in the PAT. The index of recognition of novel objects was significantly reduced in the NOR. The results of HE staining indicated that the hippocampal area of mice in the model group showed a decrease in the number of neurons, disorganization of pyramidal cell arrangement, nucleus consolidation, and other changes. TEM results showed that some neuronal nuclei in the hippocampal area had a consolidated state, slightly thickened and aberrant nuclear membranes, and fewer intracytoplasmic nidus bodies; the IHC results showed that the expression of ERβ in the hippocampal DG area of the mice was reduced. The WB results showed that the ERβ expression in the hippocampal tissue was decreased, and the p-JNK/JNK level was elevated. Compared with the model group, the Eucommiae Cortex extract group showed a significant decrease in latency, and increase in number of platform traversals and target quadrant residence time in the MWM, a significant increase in evasion latency and decrease in number of errors in the PAT, and a significant increase in the index of recognition of novel objects in the NOR. In addition, there was an increase in the number of neurons in the hippocampal area of mice. The pyramidal cells tended to be arranged in an orderly manner; the nuclei of neurons in the hippocampal area were in a better state; the expression of ERβ in the hippocampal DG area of the mice was elevated; the expression of ERβ in the hippocampal tissue was elevated, and the level of p-JNK/JNK was reduced. The effects of donepezil hydrochloride group and anti-brain failure capsule on APP/PS1 mice in terms of behavioral, HE, and TEM indexes were similar to those of Eucommiae Cortex extract, and there was no significant difference between donepezil hydrochloride group and the model group in IHC and WB experiments, and the results of molecular docking indicated that the estrogen-like components in Eucommiae Cortex extract were tightly bound to ERβ. In conclusion, the binding of Eucommiae Cortex extract to estrogen receptors, regulation of ERβ expression, and activation of ERβ/JNK signaling pathway may be one of the key mechanisms by which it improves the learning and memory ability of APP/PS1 mice.
Animals ; Male ; Mice ; Mice, Transgenic ; Memory/drug effects* ; Mice, Inbred C57BL ; Estrogen Receptor beta/genetics* ; Eucommiaceae/chemistry* ; Alzheimer Disease/psychology* ; Amyloid beta-Protein Precursor/metabolism* ; Presenilin-1/metabolism* ; Humans ; MAP Kinase Signaling System/drug effects* ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage* ; Hippocampus/metabolism* ; Maze Learning/drug effects* ; Learning/drug effects*

Medical institutions, with their clinical practice foundation and abundant human use experience data, have become important carriers for the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) and the "cradles" of the preparation of new TCM. To effectively promote the transformation of new TCM originating from the TCM clinical practice in medical institutions and establish an effective evaluation index system for the transformation of new TCM conforming to the characteristics of TCM, consensus experts adopted the literature research, questionnaire survey, Delphi method, etc. By focusing on the policy and technical evaluation of new TCM originating from the TCM clinical practice in medical institutions, a comprehensive evaluation from the dimensions of drug safety, efficacy, feasibility, and characteristic advantages was conducted, thus forming a comprehensive evaluation system with four primary indicators and 37 secondary indicators. The expert consensus reached aims to encourage medical institutions at all levels to continuously improve the high-quality research and development and transformation of new TCM originating from the TCM clinical practice in medical institutions and targeted at clinical needs, so as to provide a decision-making basis for the preparation, selection, cultivation, and transformation of new TCM for medical institutions, improve the development efficiency of new TCM, and precisely respond to the public medication needs.
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/standards* ; Humans ; Consensus ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use* ; Surveys and Questionnaires

OBJECTIVE: To construct machine learning prediction model for sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE), and analyze the application value of the model on early identification of SAE risk in elderly septic patients. METHODS: Patients aged over 60 years with a primary diagnosis of sepsis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) from 2008 to 2023 were selected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV 2.2 (MIMIC-IV 2.2). Demographic variables, disease severity scores, comorbidities, interventions, laboratory indicators, and hospitalization details were collected. Key factors associated with SAE were identified using univariate Logistic regression analysis. The data were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7 : 3 ratio. Multivariable Logistic regression analysis was conducted in the training set and visualized using a nomogram model for prediction of SAE. The discrimination of the model was evaluated in the validation set using the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and its calibration was assessed using calibration curve. Furthermore, multiple machine learning algorithms, including multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), naive bayes (NB), gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were constructed in the training set. Their predictive performance was subsequently evaluated on the validation set. Taking the XGB model as an example, the interpretability of the model through the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm was enhanced to identify the key predictive factors and their contributions. RESULTS: A total of 2 204 septic patients were finally enrolled, of whom 840 developed SAE (38.1%). A total of 21 variables associated with SAE were screened through univariate Logistic regression analysis. Multivariable Logistic regression analysis showed that endotracheal intubation [odds ratio (OR) = 0.40, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.19-0.88, P < 0.001], oxygen therapy (OR = 0.76, 95%CI was 0.53-0.95, P = 0.023), tracheotomy (OR = 0.20, 95%CI was 0.07-0.53, P < 0.001), continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT; OR = 0.32, 95%CI was 0.15-0.70, P < 0.001), cerebrovascular disease (OR = 0.31, 95%CI was 0.16-0.60, P < 0.001), rheumatic disease (OR = 0.44, 95%CI was 0.19-0.99, P < 0.001), male (OR = 0.68, 95%CI was 0.54-0.86, P = 0.001), and maximum anion gap (AG; OR = 0.95, 95%CI was 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001) were associated with an decreased probability of SAE, and age (OR = 1.05, 95%CI was 1.03-1.06, P < 0.001), acute physiology score III (APSIII; OR = 1.02, 95%CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001), Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS; OR = 1.04, 95%CI was 1.03-1.06, P < 0.001), and length of hospital stay (OR = 1.01, 95%CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001) were associated with an increased probability of SAE. A nomogram model was constructed based on these variables. In the validation set, ROC curve analysis showed that the model achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.723, and the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability of the model and the observed probability. Among the machine learning algorithms, including MLP, SVM, NB, GBM, RF, and XGB, the SVM model and RF model demonstrated relatively good predictive performance, with AUC of 0.748 and 0.739, respectively, and the sensitivity was both exceeding 85%. The predictive performance of the XGB model was explained through SHAP analysis, and the results indicated that APSIII score (SHAP value was 0.871), age (SHAP value was 0.521), and OASIS score (SHAP value was 0.443) were important factors affecting the predictive performance of the model. CONCLUSIONS The machine learning-based SAE prediction model exhibits good predictive capability and holds significant application value for the early identification of SAE risk in elderly septic patients.
Humans ; Machine Learning ; Aged ; Sepsis-Associated Encephalopathy ; Sepsis/complications* ; Intensive Care Units ; Logistic Models ; Middle Aged ; Male ; ROC Curve ; Female ; Bayes Theorem ; Nomograms ; Support Vector Machine ; Algorithms