[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021.[Methods]Based on the cervical cancer registration database in Qi-dong City from 1977 to 2021,the crude incidence rate,the age-standardized rate by the standard Chinese standard population and the world standard population(ASRC and ASRW),the truncated rate of 35～64 years old,the cumulative rate of 0～74 years old,and the cumulative risk were cal-culated;the incidence rates of birth cohorts were analyzed.Joinpoint regression analysis was per-formed with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of cervical cancer incidence.[Results]A total of 2 253 new cases of cervical cancer registered in Qidong City from 1977 to 2021,accounting for 1.62％of the total case numbers of cancer in the whole population,and for 4.03％of the total number of cancers in women.The crude incidence rate was 8.75/105,the ASRC was 4.54/105,the ASRW was 6.01/105,the truncated rate(35～64 years old)was 15.09/105,the cumulative rate(0～74 years old)was 0.63％,and the cumulative risk was 0.63％.The incidence of cervical cancer increased with age from 1977 to 2021.The average incident age was 55.36 years old,with the lowest age of 47.51 years old in 2010.Secular trend analysis showed that the AAPC of the crude incidence of cervical cancer was 6.010％(95％CI:4.951％～7.081％)(P＜0.001),among which the trend decreased from 1977 to 1999,with an APC of-2.507％;and then the trend increased from 1999 to 2017,with an APC of 14.436％(P＜0.001).The rising and falling trend curves of the AS-RC and ASRW were similar to that of the crude incidence.The age group and time period analysis showed that the peak incidence was in the older age groups before 2006,while the peak inci-dence appeared in the age groups of 45～54 years old from 2007 to 2021.The AAPCs in age groups of 25～64 years old demonstrated upward trends(all P＜0.05).The birth cohort analysis showed that the cervical cancer incidence in the 1937-1941 birth cohort was the lowest,and the birth cohort-specific rates in all age groups showed"V-shape"trends.[Conclusion]Long-term monitoring of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong has shown a trend of initially slow decline fol-lowed by a rapid increase,with the peak incident shifting towards younger ages.The rising trends of cervical cancer incidence in last two decades may be associated with the increased HPV infection,suggesting that measures to reduce HPV infection and enhance vaccination should be strengthened.

[Purpose]To analyze global epidemic status of colorectal cancer and explore the rela-tionship between the human development index(HDI)and the burden of colorectal cancer.[Methods]Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 estimation data,the disease burden of colorectal can-cer in different regions,countries,and levels of HDI were analyzed.Spearman's rank test was used to explore the correlation between HDI and colorectal cancer disease burden.[Results]The estimated global incidence of colorectal cancer in 2022 was 1 926 425 cases(1 069 446 for male and 856 979 for female),with a age-standardized incidence rate of 18.4/105(21.9/105 for male and 15.2/105 for female),and cumulative risk of incidence of 2.10％(2.60％for male and 1.70％for female);the estimated number of deaths was 904 019(499 775 for male and 404 244 for fe-male),with a age-standardized mortality rate of 8.1/105(9.9/105 for male and 6.5/105 for female)and cumulative risk of death of 0.84％(1.00％for male and 0.65％for female).1-crude mortality rate/crude incidence rate(1-M/I)was 0.53(0.53 for male and 0.53 for female).Large disparities were in the disease burden of colorectal cancer between different regions and countries.After grouped by HDI,we found that the age-standardized incidence rates in very high,high,median,and low HDI regions were 28.6/105,18.1/105,6.7/105,and 6.4/105,and the standardized mortality rates were 10.5/105,8.3/105,3.9/105,and 4.5/105,with 1-M/I of 0.57,0.52,0.43 and 0.30,respec-tively;and the incidence and mortality rates were increasing with age.Spearman's correlation analysis showed a strong positive correlation between HDI and colorectal cancer in age-standardized incidence(r=0.84),age-standardized mortality(r=0.71)and 1-M/I(r=0.82)(all P＜0.001).[Con-clusion]The global burden of colorectal cancer remains high.There are disparities in the disease burden among countries and regions,which is positively correlated with their HDI levels,indicating that the colorectal cancer prevention and treatment strategies should be developed based on the conditions of each regions and countries accordingly.

[Purpose]To analyze the incidence trend and age,period,cohort effects of brain and other central nervous system tumors(brain tumor)in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The incidence data of brain tumor from 1972 to 2021 were collected from the Qidong cancer registry database.The crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized rate by Chi-nese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.The age-period-cohort(APC)model was used to analyze the age,period,and cohort effects of brain tumor incidence in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021.[Results]A total of 2 801 cases of brain tumor occurred in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021,including 1 475 male cases and 1 326 female cases.From 1972-1976 to 2017-2021,the CR increased from 1.81/10 5 to 9.28/10 5,the ASRC increased from 2.07/10 5 to 4.96/10 5,and ASRW increased from 2.00/105 to 4.98/105.From 1972 to 2021 the AAPC of CR,ASRC and ASRW were 3.97％(3.53％for male and 4.37％for female),2.02％(1.66％for male and 2.24％for female)and 2.06％(1.63％for male and 2.24％for female)(all P＜0.001).The Wald's Chi-square test of the APC model showed that there were significant differences in the trends of age,period and birth cohort effect of brain tumor risk(all P＜0.05).The age effect showed that the incidence of brain tumor increased with age,starting from the age group of 45～49 years old and reaching a peak of 25.84/10 5 in age group of 75～79 years old(95％CI:21.17/10 5～31.53/10 5).The period ef-fect showed that the risk of recent period was higher than that in the early period using 1992-1996 period as the reference,reaching the highest in 2012-2016(RR=1.64,95％CI:1.38～1.95).The birth cohort effect showed that the highest risk was in 2017-2021 births cohort(RR=11.17,95％CI:4.26～29.26)using 1952-1956 birth cohort as the reference.[Conclusion]The incidence of brain tumor in Qidong City has been rising;and age,period and cohort are the main influencing factors,suggesting that the middle-aged and elderly population should be the focus of brain tumor prevention and control.

[Purpose]To analyze the changing trends of the disease burden of liver cancer related to hepatitis B virus(HBV)globally and in China from 1992 to 2021.[Methods]Based on the Global Burden of Disease database in 2021,indicators such as the age-standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China from 1992 to 2021 were collected.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of epidemiologi-cal characteristics,and the age-period-cohort model was adopted to analyze the impacts of age,period,and cohort factors on the incidence and mortality risks of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China.[Results]From 1992 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer globally generally showed a trend of decreasing.The average annual percentage changes were-0.31％and-0.61％,respectively,and all the down-ward trends were statistically significant(both P＜0.05).During the same period,the average annu-al percentage changes of the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer in China were-0.45％and-0.90％,respectively,and all the downward trends were statistically significant(both P＜0.05).The results of the age-period-cohort model anal-ysis showed that from 1992 to 2021,the annual net drift rates of the incidence of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China were-0.71％(95％CI:-0.84％～-0.57％)and-0.73％(95％CI:-1.01％～-0.44％),respectively.The annual net drift rates of the mortality were-1.15％(95％CI:-1.28％～-1.02％)and-1.42％(95％CI:-1.69％～-1.14％),respectively,all showing an over-all decline.The age effect showed that the risk of HBV-related liver cancer incidence in both the global and Chinese populations began to increase after 30 years of age,peaking in the 70～74 age group,while the risk of mortality surged after 40 years of age and peaked in the population aged 80 and above.The period effect indicated that the incidence and mortality risks were the highest from 1997 to 2001 and the lowest from 2017 to 2021.The cohort effect revealed that the inci-dence and mortality risks gradually decreased in populations born after 1962,with the 2007-2011 birth cohort having the lowest risks.The results of the Wald x2 test showed that there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends of the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of HBV-related liver cancer globally and in China(all P＜0.05).[Con-clusion]From 1992 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of HBV-related liver cancer showed a downward trend both globally and in China.The disease burden of HBV-related liver cancer in China was higher than the global level.The age-period-cohort model has revealed the historical changes in the incidence and mortality of HBV-related liver cancer.The current and future situation of the disease burden of HBV-related liver cancer is not optimistic.It is recommended to implement precise stratified interventions for populations of different ages,periods,and birth cohorts,and actively transform the prevention,treatment,and management strategies for HBV-related liver cancer.

Objective:To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods:Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR), age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC), and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally, the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results:In Qidong City, a total of 87, 401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100, 000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1 056.33 per 100, 000 in 2017-2021.Specifically, the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100, 000 to 1 332.75 per 100, 000, while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100, 000 to 825.44 per 100, 000, with AAPC values of 1.16%, 0.94%, and 1.44% over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age, peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and those aged over 80 were 0.64%, 0.93%, 0.92%, 2.02%, and 2.44%, respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers, lung cancer, which ranked first, saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.In contrast, gastric cancer, ranked second, decreased from 216.23 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer, ranked third, fluctuated from 113.47 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer, ranked fourth, increased from 40.06 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021, while esophageal cancer, ranked fifth, decreased from 63.42 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 28.65 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.The AAPC values over 50 years for these cancers were 2.25%, -1.89%, 0.36%, 3.13%, and -1.86%, respectively(all P<0.05).Projections indicate that by 2031, the incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong will reach 1 253.84 per 100, 000, with estimates of 1 566.67 per 100, 000 for males and 983.14 per 100, 000 for females. Conclusions:The incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong City is increasing.Common types of cancer in this demographic include lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and esophageal cancer.Notably, lung cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer are on the rise and should be prioritized in cancer prevention and control efforts.

Objective:To describe and analyze the incidence, mortality and epidemiological trends of liver cancer in China and selected regions worldwide, providing data references for liver cancer prevention and control.Methods:Data on the incidence, mortality, historical trends, and projected estimates for 2050 of liver cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database. Epidemiological characteristics of liver cancer in China and other region were described and compared by region, age, sex and human development index (HDI). Spearman's test was used to examine the relationships between HDI and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) or age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) across regions. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASIR was calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis.Results:In 2022, the number of new cases and deaths of liver cancer in the global were 866 000 and 759 000 respectively, and the ASIR and ASMR were 8.6/10 5 and 7.4/10 5, respectively. Both ASIR and ASMR were higher in males than in females. In China, there were 368 000 new cases and 317 000 deaths in 2022, with an ASIR of 15.0/10 5 and an ASMR of 12.6/10 5. Globally, the incidence of liver cancer in males peaked in the 65-69 age group, while in Chinese males, two incidence peaks were observed in the 50-54 and 65-69 age groups. Among the elderly (≥65 years), the global ASIR and ASMR were 7.4 and 8.1 times higher, respectively, than those in the working-age population (15-64 years). In China, the ratios of ASIR and ASMR between the elderly and working-age populations were 5.9 and 7.0, respectively. Both ASIR and ASMR were negatively correlated with HDI (ASIR: r=-0.18, P=0.018; ASMR: r=-0.31, P＜0.001). From 2002 to 2017, ASIR of liver cancer showed a declining trend in both males and females in China, Japan, and South Korea (all P＜0.001), with AAPCs of -1.96% for Chinese males and -2.75% for Chinese females. In contrast, the United States experienced an increasing trend in ASIR, with AAPCs of 3.13% for males and 3.12% for females (both P＜0.001). Projections indicate that by 2050, the number of new cases and deaths globally will reach 1.564 million and 1.421 million, representing increases of 80.6% and 87.2% compared to 2022, respectively. In China, the number of new cases and deaths are projected to be 560 000 and 514 000, increases of 52.2% and 62.1% from 2022, respectively. Conclusions:The burden of liver cancer varies significantly across regions, sexes, and age groups worldwide. Incidence and mortality rates are negatively correlated with HDI. The global burden of liver cancer is expected to continue increasing, underscoring the need for enhanced comprehensive prevention and control strategies.

[Purpose]To analyze the trend of incidence rates of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The incidence data of gallbladder cancer from 1972 to 2021 were collected from the Qidong Tumour Registry database,the crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW)of gallbladder cancer were calculated.Trend analysis was per-formed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of gallbladder cancer incidence rates,and time trend analysis was performed on the overall inci-dence rate by sex and age.[Results]A total of 1 369 cases of gallbladder cancer occurred in Qi-dong City from 1972 to 2021,accounting for 0.93％of all malignant tumors.The overall CR of gallbladder cancer was 2.44/105 in 50 years,ASRC was 0.88/105 and ASRW was 1.45/105.The truncated rate of 35～64 years old was 1.98/105,the cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer at 0～74 years old was 0.16％,and the risk of cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer was 0.16％.CR was slightly higher in women than that in men,but after standardization it was slightly higher in men than that in women.The sex ratio of CR,ASRC and ASRW was 0.89,1.07 and 1.06,respectively.With the increase of age,the incidence of gallbladder cancer was also increased.The age of onset was slightly increased in last 50 years.In last 50 years,there was an upward trend in the overall incidence of gallbladder cancer,the incidence both for men and women,and the inci-dence of each age group.[Conclusion]The incidence of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City has increased considerably during the past 50 years,and continuing attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of gallbladder cancer especially for the key populations.

[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of breast cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2019 and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.[Methods]The data of breast cancer collected from Qidong Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2019 were extracted.Observed survival rate(OSR),relative survival rate(RSR),age-adjusted relative survival(ARS)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer were calculated.ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate.[Results]The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30％during 1972-1977 to 89.01％during 2014-2019,and the uptrend of RSR in the 8 periods was statistically significant(P＜0.001).The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12％during 1972-1977 to 85.64％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.85％(t=10.113,P＜0.001).The 5-year RSR during 1972-2019 for males was 85.22％,and for females was 74.51％.For females,the 5-year RSR in-creased from 56.44％during 1972-1977 to 88.93％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.29％(t=13.087,P＜0.001),and the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14％during 1972-1977 to 85.23％during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.90％(t=10.369,P＜0.001).The 5-year RSR in the age groups of 25～34,35～44,45～54,55～64,65～74,and over 75 years old were 66.91％,74.69％,76.97％,75.52％,73.44％and 66.40％,respectively;the corresponding AAPCs of 5-RSR in above age groups were 1.02％(t=3.816,P=0.009),1.03％(t=4.936,P=0.003),1.23％(t=5.826,P=0.001),1.86％(t=5.997,P=0.001),2.13％(t=10.245,P＜0.001),and 1.44％(t=6.405,P=0.001),respectively.ARIMA modeling of survival trend prediction showed that 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer will be ascended to 98.76％and 98.33％by 2028,respectively.[Conclusion]The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved and will be further improved in the future,more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.

Objective:To analyze pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data in China and worldwide and to provide data for pancreatic cancer prevention and control efforts.Methods:Data of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality rates, along with historical and predictive data, were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database. Epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer was analyzed by region, sex, age and Human Development Index (HDI). Spearman's correlation coefficient test was used to assess the relationship between HDI and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR).Results:In 2022, the global number of new cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer will be 511 thousand and 467 thousand, respectively, with an ASIR and ASMR of 4.7/10 5 and 4.2/10 5, respectively. North America and Europe had the highest pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality rates of 8.5/10 5 and 7.3/10 5, respectively. Global ASIR and ASMR in men were both 1.4 times higher than those in women. HDI levels were positively correlated with ASIR ( r=0.79, P＜0.001) and ASMR ( r=0.78, P＜0.001) of pancreatic cancer in all regions. The number of pancreatic cancer cases and deaths in China were 119 thousand and 106 thousand, respectively, while the ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer were 4.4/10 5 and 3.9/10 5, respectively. Both ASIR and ASMR in men were both 1.5 times higher than those in women in China. The number of pancreatic cancer incidence and death cases in China in 2050 is predicted to be 216 thousand and 204 thousand cases, with an increase of 81.5% and 92.5% compared with 2022, respectively. Conclusions:The disease burden of pancreatic cancer varies significantly among different regions, genders and ages. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality are positively correlated with HDI. The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China are close to the global average, but the number of new cases and deaths is high. Prevention and control should be strengthened to improve the survival of pancreatic cancer patients.

Objective:To analyze the trend of ovarian cancer incidence in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021 and evaluate the age, period, and cohort effect.Methods:The ovarian cancer incidence data from 1972 to 2021 were extracted from the Qidong Cancer Registry Database, the crude incidence rate (CR), age standardized rate by Chinese population (ASR-C), age standardized rate by world population (ASR-W), and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age, period, and birth cohort effects of the ovarian cancer incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2021.Results:From 1972 to 2021, a total of 1 007 cases of ovarian cancer occurred in Qidong. The AAPC values of CR, ASR-C, and ASR-W were 7.02% , 5.17%, and 5.12% , respectively (all P＜0.001). The time trends showed that, the AAPC values of the age groups of 0-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and over 75 years old were 4.10%, 4.74%, 6.02%, 4.86%, 4.23%, and 5.18%, respectively (all P＜0.05). The age effect showed that the incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased obviously from the 45-49 year-old group, reaching a peak of 20.67/100 000 in the 75-79 year-old group. Compared with the 1992-1996 group, the period of 2002-2021 had significant effects on the incidence rise of ovarian cancer (all P＜0.05), and the incidence rate ratio ( RR) increased with the period: in 2017-2021 the RR was 3.86 (95% CI: 2.72-5.47). Using births from 1952 to 1956 as the reference group, the RR increased slowly from 0.12 (95% CI: 0.02-0.91) in 1892-1896, and peaked in 2007-2011 with an RR of 18.05 (95% CI: 3.51-92.87). The birth cohorts in 1967-2011 had significant effects on the incidence rise of ovarian cancer (all P＜0.05). The Waldχ 2 test of the age-period-cohort model showed that there were significant differences in the age, period, and birth cohort effects (all P＜0.001). Conclusions:The incidence of ovarian cancer in Qidong was on the rise. Age, period, and cohort were the main factors affecting the incidence of ovarian cancer. The middle-aged and elderly women were the focus of ovarian cancer prevention and control.