1.Analysis of clinical features and prognosis in pediatric malignant solid tumors of head and neck in single-center
Peiyi YANG ; Chao DUAN ; Shengcai WANG ; Mei JIN ; Dawei ZHANG ; Libing FU ; Tong YU ; Zhikai LIU ; Xiaoli MA ; Xin NI ; Yan SU
Journal of Capital Medical University 2025;46(3):545-552
Objective To summarize the clinical features and prognosis of children suffered from malignant solid tumors of head and neck.Methods The clinical data of children with primary malignant solid tumors located in the head and neck was retrospectively analyzed from January 2007 to December 2021 in the Department of Oncology,Beijing Children's Hospital,Capital Medical University,and the clinical features,prognostic factors were summarized.Results A total of 234 children with malignant solid tumors of head and neck were included,with a male to female ratio of 1∶0.7,aged from 3 months to 17 years and 6 months(median age 51 months).173 cases(73.9%)were treated with local painless masses.Other symptoms included snoring and facial paralysis.The proportion of rhabdomyosarcoma(RMS)was the highest(145 cases,62.0%),followed by neuroblastoma(NB)(25 cases,10.7%),Ewing sarcoma(19 cases,8.1%),etc.A total of 47 cases(20.1%)had distant metastasis.The patients received surgery,chemotherapy and radiotherapy under the mode of multidisciplinary treatment(MDT).The 3-year and 5-year overall survival(OS)were 80.8%and 75.8%,respectively,and the 3-year and 5-year progression free survival(PFS)were 64.0%and 58.9%,respectively.Tumor survivors had abnormal appearance or facial motor function(49 cases,41.2%),developmental problems or abnormal tooth loss(18 cases,15.1%),and other long-term complications that may be related to the tumor or treatment.Conclusion There are various pathologic types of pediatric head and neck malignant solid tumors,RMS and NB are the most common.Local painless mass was the most common complaint.Distant metastasis is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of head and neck malignant solid tumors.Under the MDT model,the prognosis of malignant solid tumors of the head and neck in our center was generally good.In the treatment of the tumors,the side effects and sequelae should be controlled as small as possible under the premise of long-term survival.
2.Construction and Optimization of Alzheimer's Disease Classification Model Based on Brain Mixed Function Network Topology Parameters and Machine Learning
Xiao-yu HAN ; Xiu-zhu JIA ; Yang LI ; Meng-ying LOU ; Yong-qi NIE ; Xin-ping GUO ; Lu YU ; Zhi-yuan LI ; Lian-zheng SU
Progress in Modern Biomedicine 2025;25(11):1770-1778
Objective:To explore the interrelationship between brain functional networks and features in functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI)of patients with Alzheimer's disease(AD),and to construct mixed-function networks(MFN),and apply them in machine learning classification models to improve the accuracy of AD classification.Methods:102 AD patients and 227 healthy subjects in the Alzheimer's Neuroimaging Initiative(ADNI)dataset were retrospectively analyzed.The partial correlation brain network of the blood oxygen level dependent(BOLD)signal was calculated and fused with low-frequency wave amplitude(ALFF),fractional low-frequency wave amplitude(fALFF)and local consistency(ReHo)features to construct MFN.Network topology parameters were extracted,and a variety of machine learning classification models were constructed based on MFN topological parameters,accuracy,precision,recall and area under the curve(AUC)were used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the models.Results:By constructed MFN and calculated intra group to inter group ratio(IIGR),35 features could be obtained from ALFF,fALFF and ReHo feature topological parameter analysis,after rank sum test and FDR correction,there were statistical differences among 28 features(P<0.05).The classification results show that,all the five classifiers have high classification performance on the test data set.The accuracy,precision and recall rates of random forest(RF),adaptive lifting algorithm(AdaBoost),guided aggregation algorithm(Bagging)and support vector machine(SVM)were all 99.7%,and the AUC values were up to 100%,99.5%,99.1%and 99.5%,respectively.The accuracy(98.5%),precision(98.5%),recall(98.5%),and AUC(99.1%)of the multi-layer perceptron(MLP)were slightly lower than other models,but remained excellent.It was worth noting that RF has the highest AUC value of all models at 100.0%,while Bagging has the lowest AUC value(99.1%)in the integrated approach.The results of performance comparison show that,MFN classification model can significantly improve the recognition and classification of AD disease,and greatly improve the performance of various indicators of the classifier.The results showed that,MFN classification model was superior to intelligent classification based fusion,DBN-based multitask learning,PVT-TSVM,unsupervised learning and clustering,SVM and SVM of degree 3 polynomial kernel function in key indicators such as accuracy(99.13%),AUC(99.42%),recall rate(99.46%)and specificity(99.42%)with plasma proteins,machine learning algorithms.It was further proved that MFN classification model has good generalization ability and robustness in AD disease classification.Conclusion:The AD classification model constructed based on brain mixed function network topology parameters and machine learning can improve the accuracy of AD classification.
3.Investigation on knowledge related to tuberculin skin test among 248 healthcare workers
Wen ZHANG ; Yaling SHI ; Shanshan LIU ; Qian SU ; Yu XIN ; Liyi ZHANG ; Juan LYU ; Wenping LIAO ; Jun FAN
Chongqing Medicine 2025;54(3):709-712,718
Objective To investigate the knowledge of tuberculin skin test(TST)among healthcare workers and provide evidence for improving the standardization of TST screening in primary healthcare staff.Methods A questionnaire survey was conducted among 248 licensed physicians or nurses who were qualified as licensed physicians or nurses and responsible for TST work from 27 districts/counties of Chongqing in 2023.The awareness of TST-related knowledge and its influencing factors were statistically analyzed.Results The average TST knowledge score of 248 healthcare workers was(78.3±10.6)points.The overall awareness rate was 78.9%(8 213/10 416),with specific rates as follows:65.4%(1 135/1 736)for tubercu-losis knowledge,87.3%(3 248/3 720)for TST general knowledge,53.4%(795/1 488)for TST principles,88.0%(1 964/2 232)for TST procedures,and 86.4%(1 071/1 240)for TST result interpretation.Nurses showed higher awareness rates than physicians and other staff(P>0.05).Healthcare workers from medium-epidemic areas demonstrated significantly higher awareness rates than those from high-and low-epidemic are-as(P<0.001).No statistically significant differences were observed in gender,age,occupation type,institu-tion type,or regional epidemic level between the qualified group and non-qualified group about TST-related knowl-edge(P>0.05).Conclusion Healthcare workers exhibit incomplete mastery of TST-related knowledge.Strengthening TST-related knowledge training for standardizing TST implementation.
4.Mid-long term follow-up reports on head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma in children
Chao DUAN ; Sidou HE ; Shengcai WANG ; Mei JIN ; Wen ZHAO ; Xisi WANG ; Zhikai LIU ; Tong YU ; Lejian HE ; Xiaoman WANG ; Chunying CUI ; Xin NI ; Yan SU
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2025;63(1):62-69
Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics of children with head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) and to summarize the mid-long term efficacy of Beijing Children′s Hospital Rhabdomyosarcoma 2006 (BCH-RMS-2006) regimen and China Children′s Cancer Group Rhabdomyosarcoma 2016 (CCCG-RMS-2016) regimen.Methods:A retrospective cohort study. Clinical data of 137 children with newly diagnosed head and neck RMS at Beijing Children′s Hospital, Capital Medical University from March 2013 to December 2021 were collected. Clinical characteristic of patients at disease onset and the therapeutic effects of patients treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 and CCCG-RMS-2016 regimens were compared. The treatments and outcomes of patients with recurrence were also summarized. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-Rank test was used for comparison of survival rates between groups.Results:Among 137 patients, there were 80 males (58.4%) and 57 females (41.6%), the age of disease onset was 59 (34, 97) months. The primary site in the orbital, non-orbital non-parameningeal, and parameningeal area were 10 (7.3%), 47 (34.3%), and 80 (58.4%), respectively. Of all patients, 32 cases (23.4%) were treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen and 105 (76.6%) cases were treated with the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen. The follow-up time for the whole patients was 46 (20, 72) months, and the 5-year progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates for the whole children were (60.4±4.4)% and (69.3±4.0)%, respectively. The 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group than in BCH-RMS-2006 group ((73.0±4.5)% vs. (56.6±4.4)%, χ2=4.57, P=0.029). For the parameningeal group, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (61 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (19 cases) ((57.3±7.6)% vs. (32.7±11.8)%, χ2=4.64, P=0.031). For the group with meningeal invasion risk factors, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (54 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (15 cases) ((57.7±7.7)% vs. (30.0±12.3)%, χ2=4.76, P=0.029). Among the 10 cases of orbital RMS, there was no recurrence. In the non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS group (47 cases), there were 13 (27.6%) recurrences, after re-treatment, 7 cases survived. In the parameningeal RMS group (80 cases), there were 40 (50.0%) recurrences, with only 7 cases surviving after re-treatment. Conclusions:The overall prognosis for patients with orbital and non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS is good. However, children with parameningeal RMS have a high recurrence rate, and the effectiveness of re-treatment after recurrence is poor. Compared with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen, the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen can improve the treatment efficacy of RMS in the meningeal region.
5.Epidemiological characteristics analysis of monkey injury cases caused in Qianlingshan Park, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province
Cai YANG ; Yun CHEN ; Yu CHANG ; Li LI ; Qiying PAN ; Tingting LU ; Dan CHEN ; Chengxian HE ; Mei HUANG ; Liusong YANG ; Tingqin RAO ; Su GUO ; Chong LUO ; Lihong ZHOU ; Xin MU ; Li LIU ; Yayu YANG ; Yuandong HU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(10):1685-1690
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of cases involving monkey injuries at medical institutions surrounding Qianlingshan Park in Guiyang City, and to provide a reference basis for preventive measures to reduce monkey injuries and standardized post-exposure treatment.Methods:A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted, collecting 1 900 cases of monkey-induced injuries in Qianlingshan Park treated at the outpatient clinic of Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Surgery at Qianling Hospital, Guiyang City, from 2021 to 2024. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson′s chi-square test.Results:Total of 1 900 cases of monkey-related injuries in Qianlingshan Park were collected from 2021 to 2024. The exposure time distribution exhibited significant seasonality, with 48.58% of cases occurring during July and August, totaling 923 cases, indicating a peak in the summer. There were 774 male patients and 1 126 female patients, with a ratio of 1∶1.45.and significant differences were observed between different age groups and genders (χ2=195.00, P<0.001), with the highest number of cases occurring in the 0-9 and 20-29 age groups, accounting for 22.05%(419 cases) and 21.79%(414 cases), respectively. The upper limbs were the most common injury site, accounting for 50.84% of the total cases(966 cases in total), with significant differences between gender and injury location (χ2=22.00, P<0.001), Among females, the proportion of injuries to the upper and lower limbs (30.11% and 16.47%, respectively) was higher than that among males (20.74% and 8.63%, respectively). The majority of injuries were classified as Grade Ⅲ, making up 57.38% of cases(1 069 cases in total). Self-treatment after exposure was the most common approach(60.44%), with significant differences observed between wound severity and treatment method (χ2=6.90, P=0.032), Patients with Grade Ⅱ and Grade Ⅲ wounds were more likely to choose self-management (26.84% and 33.23%, respectively) than outpatient management (15.14% and 24.15%). Approximately 98.05% (1 863 cases) of monkey-injured patients had received rabies vaccinations. Conclusions:This study analyzes monkey-related injuries in Qianlingshan Park from 2021 to 2024, clarifying the temporal distribution of injuries, demographic characteristics, injury sites, and treatment methods. The findings provide references for optimizing human-monkey conflict management and the prevention and control of zoonotic diseases in urban ecological parks.
6.LncRNA GS1-124K5.4 targeting regulation of PRDX6 on proliferation,migration and Invasion of lung squamous carcinoma cells
Yu-ning HU ; Yan-lei GE ; Ye JIN ; Jun-qing GAN ; Wei-nan YAO ; Ya-nan WU ; Xuan ZHENG ; Zi-qing LIU ; Xin SU ; Guo-gui SUN
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(8):1531-1541
Aim To investigate the effect of long-chain non-coding RNA(lncRNA)GS1-124K5.4 targeting regulation of PRDX6 on proliferation,migration and in-vasion of lung squamous carcinoma(LUSC)cells and the underlying mechanism.Methods The expression level of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 in lung cancer tissues and adjacent tissues of 60 patients with LUSC were de-termined by fluorescence in situ hybridization.The ex-pression level of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 in human nor-mal lung cells and LUSC cells were determined by qRT-PCR.Two kinds of LUSC cells(NCI-H 1703,SK-MES-1)with highest expression level of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 were selected for subsequent experi-ments.The distribution of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 in cells was studied by fluorescence in situ hybridization and prokaryotic separation.The effect of knockdown of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 on proliferation of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells was studied by CCK-8 experiment and cell clone formation experiment;the effect of knockdown of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 on migration of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells was studied by cell scratch experiment and Transwell cell migration experi-ment;and the effect of knockdown of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 on invasion of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells was studied by Transwell invasion experiment.The protein to be bound by lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 was detected by RNA pull-down combined with mass spec-trometry and immune-precipitation.The effect of knockdown of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 targeting PRDX6 on proliferation,migration and invasion of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells was studied.Results(1)The fluorescence intensity of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 in lung squamous cell carcinoma increased compared with that in adjacent tissues(P<0.05),and the expression of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 was related with lymph node metastasis and clinical stage(P<0.05).(2)The ex-pression level of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 in NCI-H1703,NCI-H520 and SK-MES-1 cells significantly increased(P<0.05).(3)The result of fluorescence in situ hybridization experiment and nucleoplasm sepa-ration experiment showed that lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 was mainly distributed in cell nucleus.(4)The prolif-eration,migration and invasion ability of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells with knockdown of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 significantly decreased(P<0.05).(5)PRDX6 protein to be bound to LncRNA GS1-124K5.4 was determined by RNA pull-down combined with mass spectrometry and immunoprecipitation.(6)The prolif-eration,migration and invasion ability of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells with overexpression of lncRNA GS1-124K5.4 significantly increased(P<0.05);the proliferation,migration and invasion ability of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells with knockdown of PRDX6 significantly decreased(P<0.05);the proliferation,migration and invasion ability of NCI-H1703 and SK-MES-1 cells with overexpression of lncRNAGS1-124K5.4 and knockdown of PRDX6 showed no signifi-cant change(P>0.05).Conclusions LncRNA GS1-124K5.4 is highly expressed in lung squamous cell carcinoma,and it may promote the proliferation,migration and invasion of lung squamous carcinoma cells by targeting the expression of PRDX6 protein.
7.Guideline for diagnosis and treatment of infection after internal fixation of closed lower limb fractures in adults (version 2025)
Bobin MI ; Faqi CAO ; Weixian HU ; Wu ZHOU ; Chenchen YAN ; Hui LI ; Yun SUN ; Yuan XIONG ; Jinmi ZHAO ; Qikai HUA ; Xinbao WU ; Xieyuan JIANG ; Dianying ZHANG ; Zhongguo FU ; Dankai WU ; Guangyao LIU ; Guodong LIU ; Tengbo YU ; Jinhai TAN ; Xi CHEN ; Fengfei LIN ; Zhangyuan LIN ; Dongfa LIAO ; Aiguo WANG ; Shiwu DONG ; Gaoxing LUO ; Zhao XIE ; Dong SUN ; Dehao FU ; Yunfeng CHEN ; Changqing ZHANG ; Kun LIU ; Deye SONG ; Yongjun RUI ; Fei WU ; Ximing LIU ; Junwen WANG ; Meng ZHAO ; Biao CHE ; Bing HU ; Chengjian HE ; Guanglin WANG ; Xiao CHEN ; Guandong DAI ; Shiyuan FANG ; Wenchao SONG ; Ming CHEN ; Guanghua GUO ; Yongqing XU ; Lei YANG ; Wenqian ZHANG ; Kun ZHANG ; Xin TANG ; Hua CHEN ; Weiguo XU ; Shuquan GUO ; Yong LIU ; Xiaodong GUO ; Zhewei YE ; Liming XIONG ; Tian XIA ; Hongbin WU ; Qisheng ZHOU ; Mengfei LIU ; Yiqiang HU ; Yanjiu HAN ; Hang XUE ; Kangkang ZHA ; Wei CHEN ; Zhiyong HOU ; Bin YU ; Jiacan SU ; Peifu TANG ; Baoguo JIANG ; Guohui LIU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(5):421-432
Postoperative infection of internal fixation of closed fractures the lower limbs in adults represents a devastating complication, characterized by diagnostic challenges, prolonged treatment duration and high disability rates. Current management of these infections faces multiple challenges, such as difficulties in early accurate diagnosis, and various controversies about the treatment plan, leading to poor overall diagnosis and treatment results. To address these issues, based on evidence-based medicine and principles with emphasis on scientific rigor, clinical applicability and innovation, the Trauma Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, Orthopedic Branch of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association, Orthopedics Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, and Trauma Orthopedics and Polytrauma Group of the Resuscitation and Emergency Committee of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association have collaboratively organized a panel of relevant experts to develop the Guideline for diagnosis and treatment of infection after internal fixation of closed lower limb fractures in adults ( version 2025). The guideline proposed 10 recommendations, aiming to provide a foundation for standardized diagnosis and treatment of postoperative infection in adults with closed lower limb fractures.
8.Guideline for the prevention of intraoperative acquired pressure injury in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury (version 2025)
Aijun XU ; Shuixia LI ; Bo CHEN ; Mengyuan YE ; Lejiao LANG ; Ning NING ; Lin ZHANG ; Changqing LIU ; Zhonglan CHEN ; Weihu MA ; Weishi LI ; Xiaoning WANG ; Dongmei BIAN ; Jiancheng ZENG ; Xin WANG ; Yuan GAO ; Yaping CHEN ; Jiali CHEN ; Yun HAN ; Xiuting LI ; Yang ZHOU ; Xiaojing SU ; Qiong ZHANG ; Tianwen HUANG ; Ping ZHANG ; Hua LIN ; Xingling XIAO ; Ruifeng XU ; Fanghui DONG ; Bing HAN ; Luo FAN ; Yanling PEI ; Suyun LI ; Xiaoju TAN ; Rongchen GUO ; Yefang ZOU ; Xiaoyun HAN ; Junqin DING ; Yi WANG ; Shuhua DENG ; Jinli GUO ; Yinhua LIANG ; Yuan CEN ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Junru CHEN ; Haiyang YU ; Lunlan LI ; Ying REN ; Yunxia LI ; Jianli LU ; Ying YING ; Lan WEI ; Yin WANG ; Qinhong XU ; Yanqin ZHANG ; Yang LYU ; Shijun ZHANG ; Sui WENJIE ; Sanlian HU ; Shuhong YANG ; Guoqing LI ; Jingjing AN ; Baorong HE ; Leling FENG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(6):530-541
Paraplegia caused by spinal cord injury is a serious neurological complication, for which surgery is currently the main treatment method. Due to different surgical approaches, patients are usually expected to maintain a passive prone position for a long time or switch between the supine and prone positions. Affected by multiple factors such as neurogenic sensory disorders, pathological changes in muscle tone and operative duration, the risk of intraoperative acquired pressure injury (IAPI) is significantly increased. Current clinical prevention strategies for IAPI in these patients predominantly focus on localized pressure relief during positioning, lacking systematic, standardized comprehensive prevention protocols or evidence-based guidelines. To address it, Department of Nursing, Orthopedics Branch, China International Exchange and Promotive Association for Medical and Health Care, Spinal Trauma Professional Committee, Orthopedics Branch, Chinese Medical Doctor Association, Nursing Group of Spine and Spinal Cord Professional Committee of Chinese Association of Rehabilitation Medicine organized experts in relevant fields to formulate Guideline for the prevention of intraoperative acquired pressure injury in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury ( version 2025), based on evidence-based medical evidence and latest research results and clinical practice at home and abroad. Eleven recommendations were put forward from the aspects of preoperative risk assessment, intraoperative prevention strategies, postoperative handover and monitoring, and supportive mechanisms for IAPI prevention, aiming to standardize the prevention measures and management strategies of IAPI in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury and accelerate the recovery of patients and improve the therapeutic effect.
9.Follow up analysis of tuberculosis incidence risk and risk factors among middle school students in Chongqing
ZHANG Wen, SU Qian, LIAO Wenping, ZHANG Liyi, XIN Yu, L Juan, LUO Jie, SHI Lin, FAN Jun, SHI Yaling
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(9):1351-1354
Objective:
To understand the incidence risk and risk factors of tuberculosis (TB) among middle school students in Chongqing, so as to provide a basis for formulating TB prevention and control strategies.
Methods:
From September to December 2022, 32 181 middle school students were selected as the study cohort from 15 administrative districts in Chongqing by using the stratified cluster random sampling method. All cohort members were screened with the tuberculin skin test (TST), and relevant information was collected from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2024. On the basis of active screening, the follow up data of the participants were compared with the National Tuberculosis Management Information System to obtain the incidence status of the study subjects. The Log rank test was used to compare the TB incidence rates among students with different characteristics, and a Cox proportional hazards model was established to analyze the incidence risk and risk factors of TB.
Results:
The TST screening rate of the cohort members was 93.0%. During the 2 year follow up period, a total of 36 TB cases occurred, with a cumulative incidence rate of 111.87/100 000 and an incidence density of 55.95/100 000. Among them, the cumulative incidence rate of students from public schools (170.44/ 100 000 ) was higher than that of students from private schools (41.16/100 000), the cumulative incidence rate of students in schools located in high epidemic areas (153.95/100 000) was higher than that in medium epidemic areas (69.00/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant ( χ 2=11.49, 4.73, both P <0.05). The Log-rank test for different TST results showed that the difference in TB comulative incidence rate between students with strongly positive TST results (216.55/ 100 000 ) and those with negative TST results (81.40/100 000) was statistically significant ( χ 2=5.85, P <0.05). Univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model revealed that the risk of TB was lower in students from private schools ( HR=0.25, 95% CI = 0.10-0.59) and students in medium epidemic areas ( HR=0.46, 95%CI =0.23-0.94); whereas the risk of TB was increased in students with strongly positive TST results ( HR=1.39, 95%CI =1.05-1.84) (all P <0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk of TB in students from private schools was lower than that of students from public schools ( HR=0.23, 95%CI=0.08-0.62, P <0.05).
Conclusions
The annual average incidence rate of TB among middle school students in Chongqing is at a relatively high level. It is necessary to strengthen the management and intervention for student groups, including those in public schools, those in schools located in high epidemic areas, and those with strongly positive TST results, so as to reduce the incidence rate of TB.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.


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