ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

Objective:To estimate the burden of influenza-associated outpatient consultations in China from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years to provide a reference for developing influenza prevention, control strategies, and vaccination policies.Methods:Data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and virological confirmation of sentinel specimens from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years were extracted from China's national sentinel surveillance system. Generalized additive models were fitted to estimate influenza-associated excess ILI outpatient burden, accounting for seasonal baselines and meteorological factors.Results:Influenza was associated with an average of 1.66 (95% CI: 1.51-1.80) excess ILI consultations per 1 000 person-years (py) in China each year from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years. The influenza-associated outpatient burden was similar across different virus types/subtypes. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 led to a higher rate of influenza- associated ILI consultations [0.65 (95% CI: 0.53-0.76) per 1 000 py] compared to other types/subtypes. The age groups with the highest burdens were children aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years, with excess outpatient consultation rates of 15.23 (95% CI: 13.73-16.73) per 1 000 py and 13.53 (95% CI: 12.49-14.52) per 1 000 py, respectively. Conclusions:Influenza caused many outpatient consultations in China, particularly among children aged 0-14. Continuous influenza monitoring and disease burden assessment should be conducted, and close attention should be paid to the changing trends of various influenza virus types/subtypes. When formulating vaccination strategies, priority should be given to recommending vaccination for high-risk populations, such as children.

BACKGROUND:Neurodegenerative diseases are closely related to the imbalance of mitochondrial autophagy regulation.Previous studies by the research group have shown that lycium barbarum polysaccharide has neuroprotective effects,but whether it can improve the damage of SH-SY5Y cells induced byβ-amyloid protein 1-42 by regulating mitochondrial autophagy is still unclear.OBJECTIVE:To explore the protective effect and mechanism of Lycium barbarum polysaccharide on SH-SY5Y cells induced by β-amyloid protein 1-42.METHODS:An Alzheimer's disease cell model was established by inducing SH-SY5Y cells with β-amyloid protein 1-42,and then intervening with Lycium barbarum polysaccharide.SH-SY5Y cells were divided into three groups:control group,β-amyloid protein 1-42 group(20 μmol/L β-amyloid protein 1-42 for 24 hours),and Lycium barbarum polysaccharide group(1 g/L Lycium barbarum polysaccharide was added 1 hour in advance to form a protective effect,and then 20 μmol/L β-amyloid protein 1-42 was added to intervene with Lycium barbarum polysaccharide for 24 hours).CCK8 assay was used to detect cell viability.Mitochondrial membrane potential was detected by JC-1.TUNEL staining was used to detect cell apoptosis.Immunofluorescence and western blot assay were used to detect the expression of synaptic,apoptosis,and mitophagy-related indicators.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Compared with the control group,the cell viability of the β-amyloid protein 1-42 group decreased(P＜0.05);cell apoptosis rate increased(P＜0.05);mitochondrial membrane potential decreased(P＜0.05);the expressions of pro-apoptotic proteins Bax and Caspase3 increased(P＜0.05);the expression of anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 decreased(P＜0.05);the expression levels of synaptic-related proteins Syn and PSD-95 decreased(P＜0.05);the expression levels of mitochondrial autophagy-related proteins Pink1,LC3A/B,Parkin,and Beclin-1 decreased(P＜0.05);and the expression of P62 increased(P＜0.05).(2)Compared with the β-amyloid protein 1-42 group,the cell viability in the Lycium barbarum polysaccharide group was increased(P＜0.05);the apoptosis rate was decreased(P＜0.05);the mitochondrial membrane potential was increased(P＜0.05);the expression levels of Bax and Caspase3 were decreased(P＜0.05);the expression of Bcl-2 was increased(P＜0.05);the expressions of Syn and PSD-95 were increased(P＜0.05);the expression levels of Pink1,LC3A/B,Parkin,and Beclin-1 were increased(P＜0.05),and the expression of P62 was decreased(P＜0.05).These findings indicate that Lycium barbarum polysaccharide may inhibit β-amyloid protein 1-42-induced damage to SH-SY5Y cells by regulating mitophagy,reduce cell apoptosis,and increase neuronal synaptic plasticity.

Objective:To investigate the association of the interaction and combined effect of renal function and body mass index (BMI) with the risk for all-cause death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in communities of Jiangsu Province.Methods:The study subjects were from the Comprehensive Research Project of Diabetes Prevention and Control conducted in Jiangsu from December 2013 to January 2014, and follow up was conducted for them until September 30, 2023. A total of 20 025 subjects were included in the study. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the association of renal function with risk for death in T2DM patients, and the association of interaction between renal function and BMI and their combined effect with all-cause death risk in T2DM patients.Results:In the follow up for 198 370 person-years, a total of 4 459 deaths were recorded. Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that renal dysfunction was associated with 71% risk of all-cause mortality in all T2DM patients [hazard ratio ( HR) =1.71, 95% CI: 1.59-1.84], as well as in all BMI subgroups. Likelihood ratio test indicated an interaction between renal function and BMI (interaction for P=0.030). Compared with patients with normal renal function and normal BMI, those with normal renal function and over weight or obesity had a lower risk of all-cause mortality, and those with renal dysfunction and low weight had the highest risk for death ( HR=2.78, 95% CI: 1.87-4.14). Conclusions:There is association of interaction between renal function and BMI with all-cause mortality in T2DM patients. T2DM patients with renal dysfunction and low body weight had significant higher risk for death.

The accumulation of uremic toxins such as urea nitrogen, blood creatinine, and uric acid of patients with renal failure in vivo would lead to aggravated kidney damage. In this study, coated aldehyde oxy-starch (CAO) was used as an adsorbent to investigate its in vitro adsorption performance on renal failure indexes for urea, indoxyl sulfate (INS), monomethylamine (MMA), dimethylamine (DMA), uric acid (UA), and creatinine (Cr). The effects of variables such as pH, temperature, concentration, dosage, and time on the adsorption capacity of CAO were systematically investigated, employing analytical techniques of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and gas chromatography (GC). The results revealed that CAO exhibited a strong adsorption capacity for urea, INS, and MMA, alongside a moderate adsorption capacity for DMA, UA, and Cr. The adsorption kinetics and thermodynamic studies indicated that the adsorption of urea and UA by CAO were fitted in pseudo-first-order kinetics, and the adsorption isotherm aligned with the Freundlich adsorption model. The enthalpy change ΔH of urea in adsorption was in the range of 40 to 60 kJ·mol^-1, which demonstrated the presence of strong adsorption force due to the interactions of coordinating groups. The ΔH of UA was greater than 80 kJ·mol^-1, indicating the generation of chemical bonds during the adsorption. Both of them, Gibbs free energy ΔG was less than 0, within the range of -20 to 0 kJ·mol^-1, suggested that the adsorption of urea and UA by CAO occurred spontaneously as physical adsorption process. The adsorption entropy ΔS of urea and UA was > 0, which indicated an increase in entropy throughout the adsorption. The infrared spectroscopygram showed the formation of a chemical bond, specifically the imine bond, following the adsorption of urea by CAO, thereby indicating a chemical reaction during the adsorption. This study elucidates the adsorption mechanism of CAO on various indexes of renal failure, providing a scientific basis for its clinical usage.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting 30-day mortality among elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD), to identify high-risk patients and improve prognosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database for elderly patients with SALD who were first admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019, including basic characteristics, severity scores, underlying diseases, infection foci, 24-hour vital signs, initial laboratory indicators, 24-hour complications, and prognosis related indicators. Patients were randomly assigned to training group and validation group in a ratio of 7 : 3. The training group used the LASSO regression analysis, as well as multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model, and validate the model using the validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 630 elderly patients with SLAD were included in the study, including 441 in the training group and 189 in the validation group. Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) for training group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.034-1.086], 24-hour pulse oxygen saturation (SpO₂; OR = 0.876, 95%CI was 0.797-0.962), initial mean corpuscular volume (MCV; OR = 1.043, 95%CI was 1.009-1.077), initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW; OR = 1.237, 95%CI was 1.123-1.362), initial blood glucose (OR = 1.008, 95%CI was 1.004-1.013), and initial aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model was constructed, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the training group was 0.757 (95%CI was 0.712-0.803), with a sensitivity of 65.05% and a specificity of 74.90%; the AUC of the model in the validation group was 0.712 (95%CI was 0.631-0.792), with a sensitivity of 58.67% and a specificity of 81.58%. The calibration curves of the training and validation groups show that both the fitted curves were close to the standard curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test: the training group (χ ² = 6.729, P = 0.566), the validation group (χ ² = 13.889, P = 0.085), indicating that the model can fit the observed data well. The DCA curve shows that when the threshold probability of the training group was 16% to 94% and the threshold probability of the validation group was 27% to 99%, the net benefit of the model was good. CONCLUSIONS OASIS, 24-hour SpO₂, initial MCV, initial RDW, initial blood glucose and initial AST are independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with SALD. The nomogram based on these six variables demonstrates good predictive performance.
Humans ; Sepsis/complications* ; Retrospective Studies ; Nomograms ; Aged ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Liver Diseases/mortality* ; Intensive Care Units ; ROC Curve ; Male ; Female ; Logistic Models

As global greenhouse gases continue rising, the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before. China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change. The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts. This article aimed to review the evidence of environmental damages and health risks posed by climate change and to provide a new science-based perspective for the delivery of sustainable development goals. Over recent decades, China has experienced a strong warming pattern with a growing frequency of extreme weather events, and the impacts of climate change on China's environment and human health have been consistently observed, with increasing O ₃ air pollution, decreases in water resources and availability, land degradation, and increased risks for both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Therefore, China's climate policy should target the key factors driving climate change and scale up strategic measures to curb carbon emissions and adapt to inevitable increasing climate impacts. It provides new insights for not only China but also other countries, particularly developing and emerging economies, to ensure climate and environmental sustainability whilst pursuing economic growth.
Climate Change ; China ; Humans ; Greenhouse Gases ; Air Pollution ; Sustainable Development ; Environment

Listeria brainstem encephalitis with myelitis is extremely rare in clinical practice.Since the clinical manifestations are non-specific,MRI is helpful for diagnosis.Positive cerebrospinal fluid culture is considered the gold standard for diagnosis.This article reports a case of an immunocompetent individual with listeria brainstem encephalitis with myelitis,aiming to enhance the awareness of this condition.
Humans ; Brain Stem/pathology* ; Diagnostic Errors ; Encephalitis/complications* ; Encephalomyelitis, Acute Disseminated/diagnosis* ; Listeriosis/complications* ; Myelitis/complications*

Objective:To investigate the feasibility and safety of intracardiac echocardiography(ICE)combined with total three-dimensional(T3D)technique in zero-fluoroscopy individualized transseptal puncture.Methods:A total of 112 patients with atrial fibrillation who underwent radiofrequency ablation in Yongchuan Hospital Affiliated to Chongqing Medical University from April 2021 to March 2024 were enrolled,and according to the method for transseptal puncture,they were randomly divided into ICE+T3D group with 56 patients and ICE group with 56 patients.The two groups were analyzed in terms of baseline data,time to atrial reconstruc-tion,time to coronary sinus electrode placement,frequency of ICE probe adjustment during transseptal puncture,duration of transsep-tal puncture,pretreatment time before ablation,incidence rate of complications,and the duration and dosage of X-ray exposure.Results:There were no significant differences in baseline data between the two groups.Compared with the ICE group,the ICE+T3D group had a significantly lower frequency of ICE probe adjustment during transseptal puncture(1.70±0.63 vs.5.34±1.71,P<0.001)and the duration of transseptal puncture(3.66±1.09 min vs.4.90±1.92 min,P<0.001).Compared with the ICE group,the ICE+T3D group had significantly longer time to atrial reconstruction(22.44±3.13 min vs.12.34±2.12 min,P<0.001)and pretreatment time be-fore ablation(49.41±3.52 min vs.37.65±4.04 min,P<0.001).In the ICE+T3D group,43(76.8%)patients achieved zero radiation during pretreatment before ablation,and 13 patients received X-ray due to the difficulty in catheter placement;compared with the ICE group,the ICE+T3D group had a significantly shorter duration of X-ray exposure(1.68±0.72 min vs.3.14±1.95 min,P=0.010)and a significantly lower dosage of X-ray exposure(6.28±2.78 mGy vs.23.85±21.32 mGy,P=0.004).During the stage of transseptal punc-ture,all patients in the ICE+T3D group achieved zero radiation,while 45 patients(80.4%)in the ICE patients received X-ray.In terms of complications,there were no life-threatening complications such as cardiac tamponade,perforation of the aorta by mistake,and embolization in either group,while there was one case(1.8%)of vascular complications in each group.Conclusions:ICE combined with T3D after integration and improvement is a safe and reliable procedure for zero-fluoroscopy individualized transseptal puncture.