Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective To explore the diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed databases up to August 7, 2024. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and the risk of bias and applicability of included prediction model studies were assessed by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 10 studies were included, among which 5 studies only identified specific exhaled VOCs in CF patients, and another 5 developed 7 CF risk prediction models based on the identification of VOCs in CF. The included studies reported a total of 75 exhaled VOCs, most of which belonged to the categories of acylcarnitines, aldehydes, acids, and esters. Most models (n=6, 85.7%) only included exhaled VOCs as predictive factors, and only one model included factors other than VOCs, including forced expiratory flow at 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF75) and modified Medical Research Council scale for the assessment of dyspnea (mMRC). The accuracy of the models ranged from 77% to 100%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.771 to 0.988. None of the included studies provided information on the calibration of the models. The results of the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) showed that the overall bias risk of all predictive model studies was high, and the overall applicability was unclear. Conclusion The exhaled VOCs reported in the included studies showed significant heterogeneity, and more research is needed to explore specific compounds for CF. In addition, risk prediction models based on exhaled VOCs have certain value in the diagnosis of CF, but the overall bias risk is relatively high and needs further optimization from aspects such as model construction and validation.

[Objective] To study on the genotyping of a sample with inconsistent forward and reverse serological tests, and to conduct a pedigree investigation and molecular biological mechanism study. [Methods] The ABO blood group of the proband and his family members were identified using blood group serological method. The ABO gene exon 1-7 of samples of the proband and his family were sequenced by Sanger and single molecule real-time sequencing (SMRT). DeepTMHMM was used to predict and analyze the transmembrane region of proteins before and after mutation. [Results] The proband and his mother have the Bw phenotype, while his maternal grandfather has ABw phenotype. The blood group results of forward and reverse typing of other family members were consistent. ABO gene sequencing results showed that there was B new mutation of c.3 G>C in exon 1 of ABO gene in the proband, his mother and grandfather, leading to a shift in translation start site. DeepTMHMM analysis indicated that the shift in the translation start site altered the protein topology. [Conclusion] The c.3G>C mutation in the first exon of the ABO gene leads to a shift in the translation start site, altering the protein topology from an α-transmembrane region to a spherical signaling peptide, reducing enzyme activity and resulting in the Bw serological phenotype.

Liumotang comes from the Yuan dynasty's Effective Prescription Handed Down for Generations of Physicians. It is composed of six medicinal materials： Arecae Semen， Aquilariae Lignum Resinatum， Aucklandiae Radix， Linderae Radix， Rhei Radix et Rhizoma， and Aurantii Fructus. It is a classical formula for treating abdominal pain due to Qi stagnation and constipation accompanied by heat. This study systematically collated the records of Liumotang in ancient medical books and modern clinical literature and conducted in-depth analysis and textual research on its formula source， main diseases， composition， dosage， medical books， container capacity， processing， preparation method， usage， drug basis， formula meaning， and other key information， so as to provide a powerful reference for the development and clinical application of compound preparations of the classical formula Liumotang. The results show that Liumotang was first seen in Effective Prescription Handed Down for Generations of Physicians， and many medical books of the past dynasties have imitated this. In terms of drug basis， the dried and mature seeds of the palm plant Areca catechu， resin-containing wood of the Daphneaceae plant Aquilaria sinensis， the dried roots of the Asteraceae plant woody Aucklandia lappa， the dried tuber root of the Lauraceae plant Lindera aggregata， the dried roots and rhizomes of the knotweed plant， R. palmatum， R.tangutikum， and R. officinale， and the dried and unripe fruits of the citrus genus C. aurantium and its cultivated varieties from the family Rutaceae were selected. In terms of dosage， through the textual research on bowls in the Ming and Qing dynasties， combined with the conversion of medicines and bowl capacity in the Qing dynasty， it was estimated that the dosage of each drug in the Yuan dynasty was 10.86 g. In the Ming and Qing dynasties， the dosage of drugs was mostly equal， but the dosage of drugs was somewhat different. In terms of processing， preparation method， and usage， in the medical books of the past dynasties， the processing of drugs has slightly changed， but raw drugs are used in all preparations. The preparation method and usage did not change much during the Yuan， Ming， and Qing dynasties， except for certain differences in dosage. In terms of syndrome， Liumotang was first used to treat abdominal pain due to Qi stagnation and constipation accompanied by heat. Medical books of the past dynasties often omit the symptoms of heat. In modern clinical practice， Liumotang is mainly used in the digestive system and urinary system diseases and is mostly used to treat constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome， biliary reflux gastritis， functional constipation， slow transit constipation， and other diseases， with no adverse reactions found yet. The above results provide a reliable scientific basis for the development and clinical treatment of Liumotang compound preparations.

ObjectiveTo observe the intervention effect of Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules on anxiety-like behaviors in the rat model of chronic restraint stress （CRS） and explore the mechanism underlying the anti-anxiety effect via the microbiota-gut-brain axis. MethodsRats were assigned into blank， model， positive drug （diazepam， 1 mg·kg^-1）， and low-， medium-， and high-dose （0.75， 1.5， 3 g·kg^-1， respectively） Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules groups. After 14 days of administration， the elevated plus maze test， open field test， light and dark box test， and marble burying test were performed. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was employed to observe the pathological changes in the hippocampus and colon of rats， and Nissl staining was conducted to observe the damage of hippocampal neurons. The gut microbiota was analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） was employed to determine the mRNA levels of zonula occludens-1 （ZO-1） and occludin in the colon of rats. The levels of tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， interleukin-6 （IL-6）， and interleukin-1β （IL-1β） in the colon， serum， and hippocampus were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of ZO-1， occludin， nuclear factor-κB p65 （NF-κB p65） in the colon tissue and NF-κB p65 and brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF） in the hippocampal tissue. ResultsCompared with the blank group， the model group showed reductions in the time and frequency ratio of rats entering the elevated plus maze， the time and frequency of rats entering the central area of the open field， the time of entering the open box， the times of passing through the light and dark box， and the number of unburied beads （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules ameliorated the anxiety of the model rats to varying degrees， and the high-dose group had the best effect， with increases in the proportions of time and frequency of rats entering the open arm in the elevated plus maze （P<0.05）， the number of rats entering the central area in the open field （P<0.05）， the time of entering the open box， the times of passing through the light and dark boxes， and the number of unburied beads （P<0.01）. Moreover， the high-dose group showed alleviated pathological damage of hippocampal neurons and colon. The results of 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the model group had increased relative abundance of Firmicutes， Deferribacterota， Romboutsia， and Phascolarctobacterium， while it had decreased relative abundance of Bavcteroidota and Lactobacillus. The drug administration groups showed increased relative abundance of Bavcteroidota， Bacteroides， norank f norank o Clostridia UCG-014， and Blautia and decreased relative abundance of Firmicutes and Deferribacterota. Compared with the blank group， the model group showed down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of ZO-1 and occludin in the colon （P<0.01）， elevated levels of TNF-α， IL-6， and IL-β in the colon， serum， and hippocampus （P<0.01）， up-regulated protein level of NF-κB p65 in the colon and hippocampus （P<0.01）， and down-regulated protein level of BDNF in the hippocampus （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， high-dose Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules up-regulated the mRNA levels of ZO-1 and occludin in the colon （P<0.01）， lowered the levels of TNF-α， IL-6， and IL-β in the colon， serum， and hippocampus （P<0.01）， up-regulated the protein levels of ZO-1 （P<0.01） and occludin （P<0.05） in the colon， down-regulated the protein level of NF-κB p65 in the colon and hippocampus （P<0.05）， and up-regulated the protein level of BDNF in the hippocampus. ConclusionFufang Kangjiaolv capsules can reduce the anxiety-like behaviors in the rat model of CRS by regulating the gut microbiota disturbance， up-regulating the expression of tight junction proteins in the colon， repairing intestinal mucosal mechanical barrier， and down-regulating NF-κB/BDNF signaling pathway， thereby reducing peripheral and central inflammation. This study proves the hypothesis that Fufang Kangjiaolv capsules play an anti-anxiety role via the microbiota-gut-brain axis， providing a new idea for further research.

ObjectiveTo explore the mechanism of Shouhui Tongbian capsules in treating constipation based on the research foundation of its active components combined with network pharmacology and animal experiments. MethodsThe drug components were imported into SwissTargetPrediction to predict the targets of Shouhui Tongbian capsules， and constipation-related targets were collected from disease databases. A protein-protein interaction （PPI） network was constructed for the common targets shared by Shouhui Tongbian capsules and constipation to screen key targets， which was followed by gene ontology （GO） function and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes （KEGG） pathway enrichment analyses. A "bioactive component-target-pathway" network was constructed， and the core components of Shouhui Tongbian capsules in treating constipation were screened based on the topological parameters of this network. Molecular docking was employed to predict the binding affinity of core components to key targets. A mouse model of constipation was constructed to screen the key pathways and targets of the drug intervention in constipation. ResultsThe PPI network revealed six key constipation-related targets： protein kinase B （Akt1）， B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， glycogen synthase kinase-3β （GSK-3β）， cyclooxygenase-2 （PTGS2）， estrogen receptor 1 （ESR1）， and epidermal growth factor receptor （EGFR）. The KEGG pathway analysis showed that the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase （PI3K）/Akt signaling pathway was the most enriched. The topological parameter analysis of the "bioactive component-target-pathway" network screened out the top 10 core components： auranetin， isosinensetin， naringin， diosmetin， quercetin， apigenin， luteolin， hesperidin， isorhapontigenin， and chrysophanol. Molecular docking results showed that the 10 core components had strong binding affinity with the 6 key targets. Animal experiments showed that after intervention with different doses of Shouhui Tongbian capsules， the time to the first black stool excretion was reduced and the fecal water content and small intestine charcoal propulsion rate of mice were improved. After treatment with Shouhui Tongbian capsules， the colonic mucosal injury and glandular arrangement were alleviated， and the muscle layer thickness was increased. Western blot results showed that Shouhui Tongbian capsules recovered the expression of apoptosis-related molecules mediated by the PI3K/Akt pathway in the colonic tissue of constipated mice. Terminal-deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated nick end labeling （TUNEL） results showed that the cell apoptosis rate of the colon significantly reduced after intervention with Shouhui Tongbian capsules. ConclusionThe results of network pharmacology and animal experiments confirmed that Shouhui Tongbian capsules can treat constipation through multiple targets and pathways. The capsules can effectively intervene in loperamide-induced constipation in mice by regulating the constipation indicators and reducing cell apoptosis in the colon tissue via activating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway.

As a chronic and lifelong disease， diabetes mellitus occurs across all age groups and gender groups. Since the disease requires lifelong treatment， it seriously affects the quality of life of patients. With the rising incidence on a global scale， diabetes mellitus has become a global problem that seriously affects public health. Moreover， the complications of this disease have aroused concern from the global medical research community， the World Health Organization， and the public. In the past， Western medicine was used in the clinical treatment of diabetes mellitus， which， however， had drug dependence， unsatisfactory efficacy， and side effects. Long-term oral administration of antidiabetics may cause liver and kidney function damage， hypoglycemia and other adverse symptoms. The treatment of diabetes mellitus has been faced with challenges such as limited efficacy and obvious side effects. Therefore， exploring more effective treatment means， especially tapping the potential of traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） in the treatment of diabetes mellitus， is a major issue to be solved. TCM has shown a great application value and a broad prospect in the treatment of diabetes mellitus because of multi-target regulation， a holistic view， synergistic effects， and high safety. TCM has a history of thousands of years in the prevention and treatment of diabetes mellitus， with rich experience accumulated and remarkable results achieved. Particularly， TCM demonstrates definite therapeutic effects on the complications. The application of TCM in the treatment of complications has been recognized and accepted by patients because of the definite therapeutic effect. In recent years， great progress has been achieved in the treatment of diabetes mellitus by the combination of Chinese and western medicine， which has made important contributions to the control of diabetes mellitus. This paper reviews the articles about the treatment of diabetes mellitus with TCM classic prescriptions， summarizes the treatment of clinical cases regarding the indications of these prescriptions， and provides an overview of the treatment mechanisms， aiming to offer fresh insights and strategies for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND:Osteosarcoma has a complex pathogenesis and a poor prognosis.While advancements in medical technology have led to some improvements in the 5-year survival rate,substantial progress in its treatment has not yet been achieved. OBJECTIVE:To screen key molecular markers in osteosarcoma,analyze their relationship with osteosarcoma treatment drugs,and explore the potential disease mechanisms of osteosarcoma at the molecular level. METHODS:GSE99671 and GSE284259(miRNA)datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database.Differential gene expression analysis and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis(WGCNA)on GSE99671 were performed.Functional enrichment analysis was conducted using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes separately for the differentially expressed genes and the module genes with the highest positive correlation to the disease.The intersection of these module genes and differentially expressed genes was taken as key genes.A Protein-Protein Interaction network was constructed,and correlation analysis on the key genes was performed using CytoScape software,and hub genes were identified.Hub genes were externally validated using the GSE28425 dataset and text validation was conducted.The drug sensitivity of hub genes was analyzed using the CellMiner database,with a threshold of absolute value of correlation coefficient|R|>0.3 and P<0.05. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Differential gene expression analysis identified 529 differentially expressed genes,comprising 177 upregulated and 352 downregulated genes.WGCNA analysis yielded a total of 592 genes with the highest correlation to osteosarcoma.(2)Gene Ontology enrichment results indicated that the development of osteosarcoma may be associated with extracellular matrix,bone cell differentiation and development,human immune regulation,and collagen synthesis and degradation.Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment results showed the involvement of pathways such as PI3K-Akt signaling pathway,focal adhesion signaling pathway,and immune response in the onset of osteosarcoma.(3)The intersection analysis revealed a total of 59 key genes.Through Protein-Protein Interaction network analysis,8 hub genes were selected,which were LUM,PLOD1,PLOD2,MMP14,COL11A1,THBS2,LEPRE1,and TGFB1,all of which were upregulated.(4)External validation revealed significantly downregulated miRNAs that regulate the hub genes,with hsa-miR-144-3p and hsa-miR-150-5p showing the most significant downregulation.Text validation results demonstrated that the expression of hub genes was consistent with previous research.(5)Drug sensitivity analysis indicated a negative correlation between the activity of methotrexate,6-mercaptopurine,and pazopanib with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,PLOD2,and MMP14.Moreover,zoledronic acid and lapatinib showed a positive correlation with the mRNA expression of PLOD1,LUM,MMP14,PLOD2,and TGFB1.This suggests that zoledronic acid and lapatinib may be potential therapeutic drugs for osteosarcoma,but further validation is required through additional basic experiments and clinical studies.

BACKGROUND:In recent years,with the rapid development of biomedicine,the study of brain aging and exosomes has attracted more and more attention,but there is no bibliometrics analysis in this field. OBJECTIVE:To objectively analyze domestic and foreign literature on brain aging and exosomes in the past 15 years,to summarize the research status,hot spots,and development trends in this field. METHODS:Using the core database of Web of Science as a search platform,we downloaded the literature on brain aging and exosomes published from the establishment of the database to December 28,2022,and analyzed the data from the aspects of country or region,institution,author,keywords,and co-cited literature using CiteSpace 6.1.R6 visualization software. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:A total of 1 045 research articles were included,and the number of publications on brain aging and exosomes research both domestically and internationally was showing an increasing trend year by year.The United States ranked first with 429 papers,and China ranked second with 277 papers.Louisiana State University ranked first with 16 articles.Professor Lukiw Walter J from Louisiana State University in the United States was the author with the highest number of publications,and Professor Bartel DP from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was the author with the most citations.The most prolific Journal was the International Journal of Molecular Sciences.Alzheimer's disease,microRNA,gene expression,extracellular vesicles,exosomes,oxidative stress,and biomarkers are the most relevant terms.According to the research on hot topics,biomarkers have become a new research hotspot.The above results indicate that the research on brain aging and exosomes has gradually increased in the past 15 years.The research direction has gradually shifted from the initial exploration of the expression of miRNAs in central nervous system diseases related to brain aging to the search for biomarkers that can identify and diagnose neurodegenerative diseases.The study of exocrine miRNAs to protect central nervous system from damage has emerged as promising therapeutic strategy.

Background: Obesity and chronic pain are related in both directions, according to earlier observational research.This research aimed to analyze the causal association between obesity and chronic pain at the genetic level, as well as to assess whether common factors mediate this relationship. Methods: This study used bidirectional two sample Mendelian randomization (MR) technique to analyze the association between obesity and chronic pain. Obesity's summary genome-wide association data were obtained from European ancestry groups, as measured by body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC), genome-wide association study data for chronic pain also came from the UK population, including chronic pain at three different sites (back, hip, and headache), chronic widespread pain (CWP), and multisite chronic pain (MCP). Secondly, a two-step MR and multivariate MR investigation was performed to evaluate the mediating effects of several proposed confounders. Results: The authors discovered a link between chronic pain and obesity. More specifically, a sensitivity analysis was done to confirm the associations between greater BMI, WC, and HC with an increased risk of CWP and MCP.Importantly, the intermediate MR results suggest that education levels and smoking initiation may mediate the causal relationship between BMI on CWP, with a mediation effect of 23.08% and 15.38%, respectively. Conclusions The authors’ findings demonstrate that the importance of education and smoking in understanding chronic pain’s pathogenesis, which is important for the primary prevention and prognosis of chronic pain.