Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Background Prenatal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is closely associated with cortical damage and neuroinflammation in offspring. The cyclic guanosine monophosphate–adenosine monophosphate synthase (cGAS)–stimulator of interferon genes (STING) signaling pathway is a key regulator of inflammation and may be subject to epigenetic regulation. Objective To investigate the role of cGAS-STING pathway activation in PM_2.5-induced cortical damage in offspring mice during pregnancy and the underlying epigenetic regulatory mechanisms. Methods Open field tests were used to assess depressive-like behavior in offspring mice. Morphological analysis was conducted to evaluate cortical damage and microglial activation in offspring brains. Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) and Western blot (WB) were performed to detect changes in the expression of key molecules in the cGAS-STING pathway in cortical tissue. A PM_2.5-induced microglial cell injury model was established in BV2 cells. Microglial activation was observed, cell viability was measured using the Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8), and the expression levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and key molecules in the cGAS-STING pathway were detected by RT-qPCR and WB. Bioinformatics analysis was performed to explore the epigenetic regulatory association between the STING signaling pathway and lysine-specific demethylase 5A (KDM5A). Changes in KDM5A mRNA and protein expression, as well as the protein level of histone H3 lysine 4 trimethylation (H3K4me3), were detected in an in vitro PM_2.5 injury model. Using small interfering RNA (siRNA) technology, the KDM5A gene was silenced in BV2 cells exposed to PM_2.5. The protein expression of H3K4me3 was detected to evaluate improvements in microglial activation, changes in inflammatory markers such as iNOS and mannose receptor (CD206), and alterations in the cGAS-STING pathway. Results Compared with the control group, the total distance of offspring mice in the PM_2.5 group was significantly reduced, and both the distance traveled and the time spent in the central area of the open field were significantly decreased (P<0.01, P<0.001), indicating depressive-like behavior in the offspring mice. Compared with the control group, the offspring mice in the PM_2.5 group exhibited disorganized cortical structure and significantly activated microglia (P<0.01), with significantly increased mRNA and protein levels of cGAS and STING (P<0.05, P<0.01, or P<0.001). The in vitro experiments demonstrated that the PM_2.5 treatment induced BV2 cells to polarize toward the M1 phenotype, exhibiting a distinct amoeboid morphology, with upregulated expression of the pro-inflammatory factor iNOS (P<0.05, P<0.01, or P<0.001) and activation of the cGAS-STING pathway (P<0.05, P<0.01). The analysis of RNA-seq data from KDM5A knockout cells revealed significantly downregulated STING expression, suggesting that KDM5A may activate the STING signaling pathway. The in vitro experiments further confirmed that the PM_2.5-treated BV2 cells exhibited significantly elevated mRNA and protein levels of KDM5A (P<0.01), while the H3K4me3 protein levels were markedly reduced (P<0.05). After silencing KDM5A in BV2 cells exposed to PM_2.5, compared with the PM_2.5+siNC group, the PM_2.5+siKDM5A group showed no obvious microglial activation and polarized toward the M2 phenotype, with significantly decreased expression levels of iNOS, cluster of differentiation 16 (CD16), and interleukin-1β (P<0.05, P<0.01), and significantly increased expression levels of anti-inflammatory factors CD206, YM1, and interleukin-10 (P<0.01, P<0.001). Meanwhile, the expression levels of cGAS and STING were also reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01). Conclusion KDM5A activates microglia through the cGAS-STING pathway, thereby contributing to PM_2.5-induced cortical damage in offspring mice during pregnancy.

Background Toluene and chlorobenzene have been designated as surrogate contaminants in the challenge test for evaluating the safety of recycling processes for food-contact recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET). Establishing a reliable analytical method is essential for ensuring the compliant use of rPET and safeguarding food safety. Objective To develop a rapid quantitative method for determining toluene and chlorobenzene in rPET using headspace gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS), as part of the challenge test for process safety evaluation. Methods The effects of different chromatographic columns and headspace conditions on detection of target analytes were investigated. Three columns HP-5 ms UI (30 m×0.25 mm×0.25 μm), DB-624 (30 m×0.32 mm×1.8 μm), and VF-WAXms (30 m×0.25 mm×0.25 μm) were compared for separation efficiency and peak shape. Headspace equilibration temperatures (50-100 ℃) and equilibration times (10-30 min) were evaluated to determine the optimal instrumental parameters. The effect of sample grinding on recovery was assessed to select the best pretreatment conditions. The established method was validated for selectivity, linearity, sensitivity, accuracy, and precision, and was subsequently applied to the analysis of 12 rPET samples. Results The target analytes achieved good separation and response within 15 min, under the optimized conditions using an HP-5 ms UI column, a headspace equilibration temperature of 60 ℃ and a 10 min equilibration time. Direct analysis without grinding yielded satisfactory recovery rates. Toluene and chlorobenzene showed excellent linearity (0.0030-5.0 mg·kg⁻¹, R²≥0.999). The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 0.00003 mg·kg⁻¹ and 0.00011 mg·kg⁻¹ for toluene respectively, and 0.00011 mg·kg⁻¹ and 0.00037 mg·kg⁻¹ for chlorobenzene respectively. The recoveries of the matrix spike at low and high spiking levels ranged from 88.6% to 110%, with relative standard deviations of 0.52%-4.9% (n=6). Among the 12 rPET samples from different recycling stages, three samples contained detectable levels of toluene (0.196-0.250 mg·kg⁻¹) and chlorobenzene (0.704-0.867 mg·kg⁻¹). Conclusion The proposed method is simple, rapid, highly sensitive, and accurate, making it suitable for determining toluene and chlorobenzene in food-contact rPET. It provides a robust technical approach for the safety evaluation of rPET recycling processes.

OBJECTIVE To conduct a comprehensive clinical evaluation of phosphate-lowering drugs in the treatment of chronic kidney disease （CKD） with hyperphosphatemia， and to provide evidence-based support for clinical drug decision-making. METHODS Relevant studies meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were retrieved， a comprehensive evaluation of efficacy， safety and economics was conducted based on existing study results. Innovation was analyzed from three aspects including filling the clinical gap， and suitability was assessed from two aspects including technical suitability. Accessibility was evaluated based on the survey data from 37 medical institutions in Kunming， combined with information from the National Reimbursement Drug List and national centralized drug procurement. RESULTS A total of 10 meta-analyses and 2 pharmacoeconomic studies were included. In terms of efficacy， all three categories of phosphate-lowering drugs （calcium-based phosphate binders， non-calcium-based phosphate binders， sodium-hydrogen exchanger 3 inhibitors） effectively reduced serum phosphorus levels. Calcium-based phosphate binders elevated serum calcium levels more significantly； sevelamer was superior to calcium-based phosphate binders in reducing intact parathyroid hormone levels； iron-based phosphate binders improved iron metabolism and anemia-related indicators. In terms of safety， iron-based phosphate binders had the highest incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions， followed by lanthanum carbonate. In terms of economics， sevelamer demonstrated economic advantages over calcium-based phosphate binders and lanthanum carbonate. In terms of innovation， non-ca lcium-based phosphate binders addressed the clinical limitation of hypercalcemia associated with calcium-based phosphate binders； iron-based phosphate binders met the treatment needs of patients with comorbid iron deficiency anemia； tenapanor exhibited an innovative phosphorus-lowering mechanism. In terms of suitability， all three categories showed good suitability in various aspects. In terms of accessibility， sevelamer had the highest availability rate， while tenapanor was not yet available in medical institutions. All three categories have been included in the National Reimbursement Drug List ； the prices of lanthanum carbonate and sevelamer decreased substantially following centralized procurement with improved affordability. CONCLUSIONS For CKD patients with hyperphosphatemia， non-calcium-based phosphate binders are preferred， among which sevelamer is recommended as the first-line choice. Lanthanum carbonate may be considered for patients with gastrointestinal intolerance； iron-based phosphate binders are preferred for patients with comorbid iron deficiency anemia； tenapanor may be considered for patients with poor response to or intolerance of conventional regimens； calcium-based phosphate binders are not recommended as long-term first-line therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effectiveness of Chinese medicine (CM) Lianhua Qingwen Granule (LHQW) and Jingyin Gubiao Prescription (JYGB) in asymptomatic or mild patients with Omicron infection in the shelter hospital. METHODS: This single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted in the largest shelter hospital in Shanghai, China, from April 10, 2022 to May 30, 2022. A total of 56,244 asymptomatic and mild Omicron cases were included and divided into 4 groups, i.e., non-administration group (23,702 cases), LHQW group (11,576 cases), JYGB group (12,112 cases), and dual combination of LHQW and JYGB group (8,854 cases). The length of stay (LOS) in the hospital was used to assess the effectiveness of LHQW and JYGB treatment on Omicron infection. RESULTS: Patients aged 41-60 years, with nadir threshold cycle (C_T) value of N gene <25, or those fully vaccinated preferred to receive CM therapy. Before or after propensity score matching (PSM), the multiple linear regression showed that LHQW and JYGB treatment were independent influence factors of LOS (both P<0.001). After PSM, there were significant differences in LOS between the LHQW/JYGB combination and the other groups (P<0.01). The results of factorial design ANOVA proved that the LHQW/JYGB combination therapy synergistically shortened LOS (P=0.032). CONCLUSIONS Patients with a nadir C_T value <25 were more likely to accept CM. The LHQW/JYGB combination therapy could shorten the LOS of Omicron-infected individuals in an isolated environment.
Humans ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; China/epidemiology* ; Hospitalization ; COVID-19 Drug Treatment ; COVID-19/epidemiology* ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Retrospective Studies ; Treatment Outcome ; Length of Stay ; Young Adult ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of zedoarondiol on neovascularization of atherosclerotic (AS) plaque by exosomes experiment. METHODS: ApoE^-/- mice were fed with high-fat diet to establish AS model and treated with high- and low-dose (10, 5 mg/kg daily) of zedoarondiol, respectively. After 14 weeks, the expressions of anti-angiogenic protein thrombospondin 1 (THBS-1) and its receptor CD36 in plaques, as well as platelet activation rate and exosome-derived miR-let-7a were detected. Then, zedoarondiol was used to intervene in platelets in vitro, and miR-let-7a was detected in platelet-derived exosomes (Pexo). Finally, human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were transfected with miR-let-7a mimics and treated with Pexo to observe the effect of miR-let-7a in Pexo on tube formation. RESULTS: Animal experiments showed that after treating with zedoarondiol, the neovascularization density in plaques of AS mice was significantly reduced, THBS-1 and CD36 increased, the platelet activation rate was markedly reduced, and the miR-let-7a level in Pexo was reduced (P<0.01). In vitro experiments, the platelet activation rate and miR-let-7a levels in Pexo were significantly reduced after zedoarondiol's intervention. Cell experiments showed that after Pexo's intervention, the tube length increased, and the transfection of miR-let-7a minics further increased the tube length of cells, while reducing the expressions of THBS-1 and CD36. CONCLUSION Zedoarondiol has the effect of inhibiting neovascularization within plaque in AS mice, and its mechanism may be potentially related to inhibiting platelet activation and reducing the Pexo-derived miRNA-let-7a level.
Animals ; MicroRNAs/genetics* ; Exosomes/drug effects* ; Plaque, Atherosclerotic/genetics* ; Neovascularization, Pathologic/genetics* ; Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells/metabolism* ; Humans ; Blood Platelets/drug effects* ; Apolipoproteins E/deficiency* ; Thrombospondin 1/metabolism* ; CD36 Antigens/metabolism* ; Platelet Activation/drug effects* ; Male ; Mice ; Mice, Inbred C57BL

Mycophenolic acid (MPA), the active moiety of both mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS), serves as a primary immunosuppressant for maintaining solid organ transplants. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) enhances treatment outcomes through tailored approaches. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based guideline for MPA TDM, facilitating its rational application in clinical settings. The guideline plan was drawn from the Institute of Medicine and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Using the Delphi method, clinical questions and outcome indicators were generated. Systematic reviews, Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence quality evaluations, expert opinions, and patient values guided evidence-based suggestions for the guideline. External reviews further refined the recommendations. The guideline for the TDM of MPA (IPGRP-2020CN099) consists of four sections and 16 recommendations encompassing target populations, monitoring strategies, dosage regimens, and influencing factors. High-risk populations, timing of TDM, area under the curve (AUC) versus trough concentration (C₀), target concentration ranges, monitoring frequency, and analytical methods are addressed. Formulation-specific recommendations, initial dosage regimens, populations with unique considerations, pharmacokinetic-informed dosing, body weight factors, pharmacogenetics, and drug‍-‍drug interactions are covered. The evidence-based guideline offers a comprehensive recommendation for solid organ transplant recipients undergoing MPA therapy, promoting standardization of MPA TDM, and enhancing treatment efficacy and safety.
Mycophenolic Acid/administration & dosage* ; Drug Monitoring/methods* ; Humans ; Organ Transplantation ; Immunosuppressive Agents/administration & dosage* ; Delphi Technique

This study investigated the role of the nuclear factor of activated T cells c3 (NFATc3) in vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) during aortic aneurysm and dissection (AAD) progression and the underlying molecular mechanisms. Cytoplasmic and nuclear NFATc3 levels were elevated in human and mouse AAD. VSMC-NFATc3 deletion reduced thoracic AAD (TAAD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) progression in mice, contrary to VSMC-NFATc3 overexpression. VSMC-NFATc3 deletion reduced extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation and maintained the VSMC contractile phenotype. Nuclear NFATc3 targeted and transcriptionally upregulated matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9) and MMP2, promoting ECM degradation and AAD development. NFATc3 promoted VSMC phenotypic switching by binding to eukaryotic elongation factor 2 (eEF2) and inhibiting its phosphorylation in the VSMC cytoplasm. Restoring eEF2 reversed the beneficial effects in VSMC-specific NFATc3-knockout mice. Cabamiquine-targets eEF2 and inhibits protein synthesis-inhibited AAD development and progression in VSMC-NFATc3-overexpressing mice. VSMC-NFATc3 promoted VSMC switch and ECM degradation while exacerbating AAD development, making it a novel potential therapeutic target for preventing and treating AAD.

Interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4) is a critical transcription factor that governs the differentiation of cluster of differentiation 4⁺ (CD4⁺) T cells. The pathogenesis and progression of psoriasis are primarily attributed to an immune imbalance stemming from the overproduction of interleukin-17A (IL-17A) by T lymphocytes. However, the role of IRF4 in psoriasis remains unexplored. In this study, we found that IRF4 activity is increased in the cutaneous lesions of patients with psoriasis in response to stimulation by IL-23A and IL-1β. This IRF4 elevation heightens its binding to the E1A binding protein p300 (EP300) promoter, triggering the transcription of downstream retinoic acid receptor-related orphan receptor-γt (RORγt) and increasing the secretion of IL-17A, thereby establishing the IL-1β/IL-23A-IRF4-EP300-RORC-IL-17A inflammatory cascade in psoriasis. The alleviation of imiquimod (IMQ)-induced psoriatic-like symptoms was achieved through the creation of a Irf4 ^-/- gene deletion mouse model and pharmacological inhibition using antisense oligonucleotides targeted for Irf4. This amelioration was accompanied by a decreased number of IL-17A-producing CD4⁺ T cells in the skin. The findings of this study suggest that IRF4 plays a crucial role in the promotion of inflammation and exacerbation of IMQ-induced psoriasiform dermatitis. Consequently, IRF4 targeting could be a promising therapeutic strategy.