1.Efficacy and safety of Chinese herbal compounds for pulmonary nodules: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Yanlong LI ; Xinze ZHENG ; Lingyan LAN ; Ying WANG ; Wei SU ; Jiahui CHEN ; Xiangjun QI ; Xuewei LI ; Bo AN ; Ling YU ; Lingling SUN ; Lizhu LIN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(07):1119-1128
Objective To systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) compound in treating pulmonary nodules, providing evidence-based medical evidence for TCM intervention in pulmonary nodules. Methods Computer search of PubMed, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed was conducted to select randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of TCM compound intervention in pulmonary nodules, with the retrieval time from the inception to November 29, 2023. The Cochrane bias risk assessment tool was used to evaluate the quality of the included studies, and Review Manager 5.4 was used for Meta-analysis. Results A total of 18 RCTs were included, covering 8 provinces across the country, with a total sample size of 1301 patients. The TCM compounds used in the included studies all incorporated the method of dissolving phlegm and dissipating nodules. There was a high risk of bias uncertainty in the included studies. Meta-analysis results suggested that TCM compound could significantly reduce the diameter of pulmonary nodules [MD=−1.41, 95%CI (−1.70, −1.13), P<0.001], decrease the number of nodules [MD=−0.37, 95%CI (−0.73, −0.01), P=0.05], alleviate clinical symptoms [MD=−4.84, 95%CI (−6.04, −3.64), P<0.001], and improve lung function [forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), MD=0.55, 95%CI (0.09, 1.01), P=0.02; FEV1/forced vital capacity, MD=6.12, 95%CI (4.47, 7.78), P<0.001]. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the probability of malignancy between the experimental group and the control group [MD=−0.01, 95%CI (−0.01, 0.00), P=0.09]. Conclusion TCM compound can significantly reduce the diameter of pulmonary nodules, decrease the number of nodules, alleviate clinical symptoms, and improve lung function, but future multicenter, large-sample, high-quality RCTs are still needed to further explore and verify this conclusion.
2.The Neural Circuit Characteristics of Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Over The Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex for The Treatment of Migraine
Chen-Xia JIN ; Bo-Lin TAN ; Yang YE ; Ji-Qing HE ; Ling-Yan WANG ; Zhong-Ming GAO ; Yu-Jun WANG ; Hui-Li LIU ; Yong-Xing YAN ; Xian-Wei CHE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(7):1953-1968
ObjectiveMigraine is a leading neurological disorder and the fourth most common cause of years lived with disability worldwide, affecting nearly 116 million individuals. Although pharmacological treatments are available, their efficacy is often limited by side effects and variable response rates. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) offers a safe, non-invasive alternative for migraine management. However, the neurophysiological mechanisms, particularly how rTMS modulates local cortical excitability and distributed pain-related circuits, remain poorly understood. Elucidating these mechanisms is essential for optimizing treatment protocols and improving clinical outcomes. MethodsThis study employed concurrent transcranial magnetic stimulation and electroencephalography (TMS-EEG) to investigate neuroplastic and neurocircuitry mechanisms of DLPFC-rTMS in migraine. Study 1 compared 30 migraineurs and 28 healthy controls to identify abnormalities in TMS-evoked potentials (TEPs) and significant current density (SCD) within sensory-discriminative regions including the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) and posterior insula (pINS), cognitive-affective regions including the anterior insula (aINS) and midcingulate cortex (MCC), and a descending modulatory region, the periaqueductal gray (PAG). Study 2 used a single-blind, crossover, sham-controlled design in 34 healthy participants. Each participant received both active (10 Hz, 80% RMT, 1 500 pulses) and sham DLPFC-rTMS in counterbalanced order. TMS-EEG and cold pain tolerance were assessed before and after each session. ResultsIn Study 1, migraineurs showed a significantly less negative N120 amplitude compared to healthy controls (P=0.027, Cohen’s d=0.60), indicating local intracortical disinhibition. No group differences were observed for N40, P60, or P180 components. At the source level, migraineurs exhibited significantly higher SCD in the S1, pINS, aINS, and MCC (allQ<0.05), but not in the ventroposterior thalamus (vpTHAL), mediodorsal thalamus (mdTHAL), or PAG. In Study 2, active rTMS significantly reduced SCD from pre- to post-stimulation in the S1, aINS, and MCC (all Q<0.05). Sham stimulation also reduced SCD in the S1 (Q<0.05) but not in the aINS or MCC. Although no significant group-level analgesic effect was observed between active and sham conditions (P=0.107), correlation analyses revealed that greater SCD reductions in the S1 and MCC were significantly associated with higher post-rTMS pain tolerance (R=-0.487 and -0.495, both Q<0.01) and larger improvements in pain tolerance(R=-0.487 and -0.451, both Q<0.05). No such correlations were found following sham stimulation, suggesting that the behavioural relevance of neural changes is specific to active rTMS. ConclusionThis study provides novel evidence that migraineurs exhibit both local neuroplastic abnormalities (reduced N120 amplitude) and hyperactivity in key pain-processing regions (S1, pINS, aINS, MCC). A single session of DLPFC-rTMS reduced hyperactivity in the aINS, MCC, and S1. Notably, greater reductions in the S1 and MCC were associated with improved pain tolerance. These findings identify distinct cortical circuitries, particularly within the cognitive-affective pain network, that may serve as potential biomarkers for optimizing rTMS treatment in migraine and other chronic pain conditions. Future studies should validate these results in patient populations experiencing spontaneous migraine attacks and explore multi-session or accelerated rTMS protocols.
3.From transmission to elimination: progress of schistosomiasis control in Sichuan Province
Jiajia WAN ; Zisong WU ; Lin CHEN ; Nannan WANG ; Yu ZHANG ; Chen PU ; Rongzhi LI ; Xianhong MENG ; Liang XU ; Jingye SHANG ; Ding LU ; Bo ZHONG ; Yang LIU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(3):232-239
Sichuan Province is a hilly schistosomiasis-endemic province in China with the highest endemicity and largest coverage. During the period of more than 70 years of integrated control, there are five distinct phases of schistosomiasis control in Sichuan Province, including baseline investigation, Oncomelania hupensis snail control, chemotherapy for both humans and livestock, management of source of Schistosoma japonicum infections, and sustained control and intensified surveillance and early warning, and a package of key interventions are implemented, including environmental modification, snail control with chemical treatment, large-scale chemotherapy for humans and livestock, management of source of S. japonicum infections, intensified integrated control, establishment of an early warning and surveillance system. As a result, schistosomiasis has been eliminated across all 63 disease-endemic counties (cities, districts) in Sichuan Province by June 2025. Government-led multi-sectoral collaborations, science and technology-supported precision control strategies, and a sustainable control model tailored to the ecological and socio-economic conditions in endemic regions are essential to achieving the target of schistosomiasis elimination in Sichuan Province.
4.Different Exercise Modalities for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Complicated With Metabolic-associated Fatty Liver Disease
Bo-Zong YI ; Lei LÜ ; Yu-Xiao GUO ; Bei-Bei QIE ; Fei-Long CHEN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(8):2053-2070
Both type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) fall within the spectrum of metabolic diseases, and they exhibit a bi-directional causal relationship and robust reciprocal association. Their shared pathological cornerstone is insulin resistance (IR), which involves the interplay of mitochondrial dysfunction and chronic inflammation, forming a cascading pathological process of “IR-mitochondrial dysfunction-inflammation”. This largely explains the notable upward trend in T2DM-MAFLD co-occurrence observed over recent years. Exercise intervention, as a safe and effective non-pharmacological approach, can improve the pathological progression of these patients at multiple levels. Following the logical framework of “pathogenesis-efficacy comparison-molecular mechanisms-clinical translation”, this article systematically compares the efficacy and molecular mechanisms of moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT), resistance exercise, high-intensity interval training (HIIT), and combined training. MICT reduces intrahepatic triglycerides by promoting lipolysis and improving cardiorespiratory fitness; resistance exercise increases muscle mass and basal metabolic rate, offering unique advantages in preserving muscle while reducing fat and improving insulin sensitivity; HIIT is a time-efficient exercise modality that enhances patients’ cardiorespiratory fitness and insulin sensitivity by alternating brief periods of vigorous exertion with recovery periods, with a prominent short-term triglyceride-lowering effect; combined training produces synergistic effects, comprehensively improving glucolipid metabolism and showing the best long-term adherence. Mechanistically, exercise exerts its beneficial effects through three common pathways: (1) AMPK-mediated lipid oxidation and mitochondrial biogenesis; (2) IRS/PI3K/Akt-mediated insulin signaling sensitization; and (3) Nrf2/ARE anti-oxidation and TGF-β/Smads anti-fibrosis regulation. Different exercise modalities activate these pathways with distinct emphases: MICT most directly and persistently activates the AMPK pathway; resistance exercise uniquely improves IRS/PI3K/Akt signaling through muscle mass gain; HIIT induces the highest AMPK activation intensity and triggers unique lactate-mediated signaling regulation; combined training integrates the above multiple mechanistic advantages. For clinical translation, multidisciplinary team collaboration is essential to ensure safety and adherence. Individualized prescriptions should be formulated according to the FITT-VP principle and patient phenotypes—frequency of 3-5 sessions/week of aerobic exercise combined with 2-3 sessions/week of resistance exercise; intensity of moderate-intensity (40%-60% heart rate reserve (HRR))aerobic exercise and 60%-80% of one-repetition maximum (1-RM) for resistance exercise; time of at least 150 min/week of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise, 30-60 min per session; type of combined training as the preferred modality; total volume of≥500-1 000 MET-min/week; and progression adjusted every 4-6 weeks—with real-time adjustments supported by wearable devices, ultimately forming a closed-loop management system from initial assessment to long-term follow-up. Notably, current studies have limitations such as small sample sizes and short intervention periods. Future research should focus on long-term follow-up, multi-omics biomarkers, and combined exercise-drug strategies. In conclusion, the systematic integration of structured, individualized, and sustainable exercise interventions into the multidisciplinary management pathway for patients with T2DM complicated by MAFLD is an urgent need in current clinical practice.
5.Availability and use of child safety seats among children aged 0-3 years
CHEN Bo ; WANG Xihui ; QIU Fengqian ; YU Yan ; GAO Shuna ; HE Lihua ; LI Weiyi ; JI Yunfang ; CHEN Weihua
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(1):21-25
Objective:
To investigate the availability and use of child safety seats among children aged 0-3 years, so as to provide the basis for improving riding safety for children.
Methods:
Parents of children aged 0-3 years in Huangpu District, Shanghai Municipality, were recruited using the stratified multistage random sampling method from May to July 2024. Demographic information, family travel patterns, the use of child safety seat and related health beliefs were collected using questionnaire surveys. Factors affecting the use of child safety seats were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model.
Results:
Totally 514 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective rate of 96.98%. The respondents included 122 fathers (23.74%) and 392 mothers (76.26%), with a median age of 34.00 (interquartile range, 5.00) years. There were 446 families equipping with child safety seats, accounting for 86.77%; and 169 families using child safety seats, accounting for 32.88%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the parents who had children aged >1-2 years (OR=0.597, 95%CI: 0.366-0.973), travelled 2-4 times per month (OR=0.359, 95%CI: 0.213-0.607) or once per month or less (OR=0.384, 95%CI: 0.202-0.729), and scored high in perceived barrier (OR=0.634, 95%CI: 0.486-0.827) were less likely to use child safety seats; the parents who had children with local household registration (OR=2.506, 95%CI: 1.356-4.633), travelled 5-<10 km (OR=1.887, 95%CI: 1.148-3.101) or ≥10 km (OR=2.319, 95%CI: 1.355-3.967), always wore seat belts (OR=2.342, 95%CI: 1.212-4.524), scored high in perceived susceptibility (OR=1.392, 95%CI: 1.091-1.778) and self-efficacy (OR=1.413, 95%CI: 1.156-1.727) were more likely to use child safety seats.
Conclusions
Equipping family cars with child safety seats and using them can prevent and reduce traffic injuries among children aged 0-3 years. It is recommended to strengthen publicity to promote the use of child safety seats.
6.A Randomized Controlled,Double-Blind Study on Huaban Jiedu Formulation (化斑解毒方) in the Treatment of Psoriasis Vulgaris with Blood-Heat Syndrome
Xuewen REN ; Yutong DENG ; Huishang FENG ; Bo HU ; Jianqing WANG ; Zhan CHEN ; Xiaodong LIU ; Xinhui YU ; Yuanwen LI
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(16):1679-1686
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Huaban Jiedu Formulation (化斑解毒方, HJF) in treating psoriasis vulgaris with blood-heat syndrome. MethodsA randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was conducted with 60 patients diagnosed with psoriasis vulgaris of blood-heat syndrome. Patients were randomly assigned to either a treatment group or a control group, with 30 cases in each. The treatment group received HJF granules orally, one dose a day, combined with topical Qingshi Zhiyang Ointment (青石止痒软膏), while the control group received placebo granules, one dose a day, combined with the same topical ointment. Both groups were topically treated twice daily of 28 days treatment cours. Psoriasis area and severity index (PASI), visual analogue scale for pruritus (VAS), traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome scores, dermatology life quality index (DLQI), and psoriasis life stress inventory (PLSI) were assessed before treatment and on day 14 and day 28. Response rates for PASI 50 (≥50% reduction) and PASI 75 (≥75% reduction), as well as overall clinical efficacy, were compared between groups. Serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-17 (IL-17) were measured before and after 28 days of treatment. Adverse reactions during treatment were recorded. ResultsAfter 28 days of treatment, both groups showed significant reductions in PASI total score, lesion area score, erythema, scaling, and infiltration scores, pruritus VAS score, TCM syndrome score, DLQI, PLSI, and serum IL-6 and IL-17 levels (P<0.05). Compared to the control group, the treatment group had significantly greater improvements in PASI total score and erythema score, TCM syndrome score, serum IL-6 and IL-17 levels, and PASI 50 response rate after 28 days (P<0.05). Between-group comparisons of score differences before and after 28-day treatment revealed that the treatment group showed significantly better improvements in PASI total, lesion area score, erythema score, TCM syndrome score, DLQI, PLSI, and inflammatory markers (P<0.05 or P<0.01). The total effective rate on day 14 and day 28 was 40.00% (12/30) and 83.33% (25/30) in the treatment group, versus 6.90% (2/29) and 41.38% (12/29) in the control group, respectively. The clinical efficacy in the treatment group was significantly superior to that in the control group (P<0.05). Mild gastric discomfort occurred in 3 patients in the treatment group and 1 in the control group. ConclusionHJF can effectively improve skin lesions and TCM symptoms relieve pruritus, enhance quality of life, and reduce inflammatory markers IL-6 and IL-17, in patients with blood-heat syndrome of psoriasis vulgaris, with a good safety profile.
7.Mechanism of action of the nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor protein 3 inflammasome and its regulation in liver injury.
Yifan LU ; Tianyu WANG ; Bo YU ; Kang XIA ; Jiayu GUO ; Yiting LIU ; Xiaoxiong MA ; Long ZHANG ; Jilin ZOU ; Zhongbao CHEN ; Jiangqiao ZHOU ; Tao QIU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(9):1061-1071
Nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain (NOD)-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) is a cytosolic pattern recognition receptor that recognizes multiple pathogen-associated molecular patterns and damage-associated molecular patterns. It is a cytoplasmic immune factor that responds to cellular stress signals, and it is usually activated after infection or inflammation, forming an NLRP3 inflammasome to protect the body. Aberrant NLRP3 inflammasome activation is reportedly associated with some inflammatory diseases and metabolic diseases. Recently, there have been mounting indications that NLRP3 inflammasomes play an important role in liver injuries caused by a variety of diseases, specifically hepatic ischemia/reperfusion injury, hepatitis, and liver failure. Herein, we summarize new research pertaining to NLRP3 inflammasomes in hepatic injury, hepatitis, and liver failure. The review addresses the potential mechanisms of action of the NLRP3 inflammasome, and its regulation in these liver diseases.
Humans
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NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/metabolism*
;
Inflammasomes/physiology*
;
Animals
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Liver Diseases/metabolism*
;
Liver/metabolism*
;
Reperfusion Injury/metabolism*
8.Cost-effectiveness of angiographic quantitative flow ratio-guided coronary intervention: A multicenter, randomized, sham-controlled trial.
Yanyan ZHAO ; Changdong GUAN ; Yang WANG ; Zening JIN ; Bo YU ; Guosheng FU ; Yundai CHEN ; Lijun GUO ; Xinkai QU ; Yaojun ZHANG ; Kefei DOU ; Yongjian WU ; Weixian YANG ; Shengxian TU ; Javier ESCANED ; William F FEARON ; Shubin QIAO ; David J COHEN ; Harlan M KRUMHOLZ ; Bo XU ; Lei SONG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(10):1186-1193
BACKGROUND:
The FAVOR (Comparison of Quantitative Flow Ratio Guided and Angiography Guided Percutaneous Intervention in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease) III China trial demonstrated that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) lesion selection using quantitative flow ratio (QFR) measurement, a novel angiography-based approach for estimating fractional flow reserve, improved two-year clinical outcomes compared with standard angiography guidance. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of QFR-guided PCI from the perspective of the current Chinese healthcare system.
METHODS:
This study is a pre-specified analysis of the FAVOR III China trial, which included 3825 patients randomized between December 25, 2018, and January 19, 2020, from 26 centers in China. Patients with stable or unstable angina pectoris or those ≥72 hours post-myocardial infarction who had at least one lesion with a diameter stenosis between 50% and 90% in a coronary artery with a ≥2.5 mm reference vessel diameter by visual assessment were randomized to a QFR-guided strategy or an angiography-guided strategy with 1:1 ratio. During the two-year follow-up, data were collected on clinical outcomes, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), estimated costs of index procedure hospitalization, outpatient cardiovascular medication use, and rehospitalization due to major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). The primary analysis calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as the cost per MACCE avoided. An ICER of ¥10,000/MACCE event avoided was considered economically attractive in China.
RESULTS:
At two years, the QFR-guided group demonstrated a reduced rate of MACCE compared to the angiography-guided group (10.8% vs . 14.7%, P <0.01). Total two-year costs were similar between the groups (¥50,803 ± 21,121 vs . ¥50,685 ± 23,495, P = 0.87). The ICER for the QFR-guided strategy was ¥3055 per MACCE avoided, and the probability of QFR being economically attractive was 64% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥10,000/MACCE avoided. Sensitivity analysis showed that QFR-guided PCI would become cost-saving if the cost of QFR were below ¥3682 (current cost: ¥3800). Cost-utility analysis yielded an ICER of ¥56,163 per QALY gained, with a 53% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥85,000 per QALY gained.
CONCLUSION:
In patients undergoing PCI, a QFR-guided strategy appears economically attractive compared to angiographic guidance from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03656848.
Humans
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Cost-Benefit Analysis
;
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/methods*
;
Male
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Female
;
Coronary Angiography/methods*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
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Coronary Artery Disease/surgery*
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
;
Fractional Flow Reserve, Myocardial/physiology*
9.Phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction of Ostreae Concha (Ostrea rivularis).
Hong-Yi ZHANG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Jia-Wen LIU ; Wen-Bo FEI ; Shi-Ru HUANG ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Chong-Yang LI ; Fei-Fei LI ; Qiao-Ling MA ; Fu WANG ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1209-1223
The phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of 17 batches of Ostreae Concha(Ostrea rivularis) during the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process were analyzed. The content of calcium carbonate(CaCO_3), the main component, was determined by chemical titration, and the extract yield and transfer rate were calculated. The CaCO_3 content in the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction was 94.39%-98.80%, 95.03%-99.22%, and 84.58%-90.47%, respectively. The process of raw material to calcined decoction pieces showed the yield range of 96.85% to 98.55% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 96.92% to 99.27%. The process of calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction showed the extract yield range of 2.86% to 5.48% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 2.59% to 5.13%. The results of X-ray fluorescence(XRF) assay showed that the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction mainly contained Ca, Na, Mg, Si, Br, Cl, Al, Fe, Cr, Mn, and K. The chemometric results showed an increase in the relative content of Cr, Fe, and Si from raw material to calcined decoction pieces and an increase in the relative content of Mg, Al, Br, K, Cl, and Na from calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was employed to establish XRD characteristic patterns of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The XRD results showed that the main phase of all three was calcite, and no transformation of crystalline form or generation of new phase was observed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR) was employed to establish the FTIR characteristic spectra of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The FTIR results showed that the raw material had internal vibrations of O-H, C-H, C=O, C-O, and CO■ groups. Due to the loss of organic matter components after calcination, no information about the vibrations of C-H, C=O, and C-O groups was observed in the spectra of calcined decoction pieces and standard decoction. In summary, this study elucidated the quantity-quality transfer and phase changes in the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process by determining the CaCO_3 content, calculating the extract yield and transfer rate, and comparing the element changes, FTIR characteristic spectra, and XRD characteristic pattern. The results were reasonable and reliable, laying a foundation for the subsequent process research and quality control of the formula granules of calcined Ostreae Concha(O. rivularis Gould), and providing ideas and methods for the quality control of the whole process of raw material-decoction pieces-standard decoction-formula granules of Ostreae Concha and other testacean traditional Chinese medicine.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/isolation & purification*
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Calcium Carbonate/analysis*
;
Quality Control
10.Comparison of multiple machine learning models for predicting the survival of recipients after lung transplantation
Lingzhi SHI ; Yaling LIU ; Haoji YAN ; Zengwei YU ; Senlin HOU ; Mingzhao LIU ; Hang YANG ; Bo WU ; Dong TIAN ; Jingyu CHEN
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):264-271
Objective To compare the performance and efficacy of prognostic models constructed by different machine learning algorithms in predicting the survival period of lung transplantation (LTx) recipients. Methods Data from 483 recipients who underwent LTx were retrospectively collected. All recipients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The 24 collected variables were screened based on variable importance (VIMP). Prognostic models were constructed using random survival forest (RSF) and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost). The performance of the models was evaluated using the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results There were no significant statistical differences in the variables between the training set and the validation set. The top 15 variables ranked by VIMP were used for modeling and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) was determined as the most important factor. Compared with the XGBoost model, the RSF model demonstrated better performance in predicting the survival period of recipients (iAUC 0.773 vs. 0.723). The RSF model also showed better performance in predicting the 6-month survival period (tAUC 6 months 0.884 vs. 0.809, P = 0.009) and 1-year survival period (tAUC 1 year 0.896 vs. 0.825, P = 0.013) of recipients. Based on the prediction cut-off values of the two algorithms, LTx recipients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The survival analysis results of both models showed that the survival rate of recipients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Conclusions Compared with XGBoost, the machine learning prognostic model developed based on the RSF algorithm may preferably predict the survival period of LTx recipients.


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