1.Effect of Microorganisms on The Spoilage of Donkey Hides From Different Regions
Meng ZHANG ; Qiu-Mei LI ; Jia-Wei KANG ; Jie YU ; Xia LI ; Yue YU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):754-766
ObjectiveDonkey hide is the sole legally designated raw material for the preparation of the traditional Chinese medicine Ejiao. The quality stability of donkey hide during preservation directly determines the efficacy and safety of Ejiao. This study focuses on the dynamic succession of microbial communities during the preservation of donkey hides from different origins, aiming to clarify the correlation between microbial biodiversity difference and the degradation profiles of hide collagen and critical biochemical components, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for developing targeted preservation strategies based on microbial regulation. MethodsDonkey hides originating from four different regions were subjected to an accelerated microbial aging assay to simulate the spoilage process. The microbial community succession was analyzed using high-throughput sequencing. Microstructure changes and pore structure characteristics were assessed by scanning electron microscopy and mercury intrusion porosimetry, respectively. Additionally, the content of major components, including lipids, proteins, and sugars were determined by biochemical methods. ResultsAfter 96 h of aging, the collagen fiber structure in Africa donkey hides (ADH) exhibited significant degradation and collapse, followed by Xinjiang donkey hides (XDH). Instead, the microstructure of Dong’e black donkey hides (DDH) and Peru donkey hides (PDH) remained relatively intact. The porosities of DDH, XDH, PDH, and ADH increased from 27.9%, 15.7%, 30.3%, and 46.2% to 36.5%, 52.6%, 42.8%, and 57.7%, respectively, during the aging process, which suggested that the originally compact fiber structure was disrupted by microbial aging. Fourier transform infrared spectrometer analysis revealed the amide bands in XDH exhibited relatively weak intensity, and no collagen amide I band was observed in ADH. Meanwhile, the lipid and protein contents decreased in all four types of donkey hides, indicating that these components served as the primary nutrient sources for the growth of microorganism. Notably, the most severe collagen degradation was observed in XDH and ADH. A substantial increase was detected in the total soluble sugar in PDH aging solution and hydroxyproline in the ADH aging solution, respectively. These results indicated that donkey hides exhibit distinct patterns of structural degradation and nutrient utilization. Furthermore, the viable cells number of donkey hides increased sharply after 48 h of aging. Metagenomic analysis revealed that the relative abundance of Euryarchaeota in ADH, PDH and XDH declining from initial 93.19%, 97.73% and 30.08% to 0.79%, 1.43% and 0.02% after 96 h, respectively. Conversely, a significantly increase was observed in the abundance of Bacillota, with a marked increase in ADH, peaking at 92.75%. Additionally, the abundance of Pseudomonadota in PDH increased from 0.10% to 87.84%, suggesting that Bacillota and Pseudomonadota may be key factors exacerbating donkey hide spoilage. Unlike the other three types of donkey hides, the dominant bacterial phylum in DDH shifted from Pseudomonadota to Bacteroidota, characterized by a substantial abundance increase of Bacteroidota from 0.13% to 44.22%. ConclusionRegional variation in origin significantly influence the microbial aging of donkey hides, leading to distinct patterns of structural deterioration and differential nutrient utilization. Therefore, implementing origin-specific preservation strategies, through the precisely controlling environmental factors to suppress harmful phyla such as Bacillota and Pseudomonadota, is crucial for enhancing the storage quality of donkey hides.
2.The SMAD-Pathway Mediates HMGB1-Induced Proliferation and Metastatic Progression in Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma Cells
De-De LIAN ; Xue Mei LI ; Yu-Xi JIA ; Ming-Wei ZHOU ; Xiang-Ru CHEN ; Yang-Yang TIAN ; Min LI ; Ming-Hui SUN ; Ye ZHAO ; Hong-Jun LI ; Qing-Ling ZHANG
Annals of Dermatology 2026;38(1):51-58
Background:
High-mobility group box protein 1 (HMGB1) is a chromatin-binding protein involved in arthritis, ischemia, sepsis, atherosclerosis, neurodegenerative disorders, meningitis, and cancer. HMGB1 exhibits dual roles in cancer, acting as either a tumor suppressor or oncoprotein depending on context.
Objective:
This research aimed to elucidate HMGB1’s functional significance in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC).
Methods:
We overexpressed HMGB1 in cSCC cell lines using recombinant adenovirus and examined its effects on cell proliferation, colony formation, and cell migration.
Results:
Immunohistochemical analysis revealed elevated HMGB1 expression levels in cSCC tissue relative to normal epidermis. To assess the influence of HMGB1, we employed recombinant adenoviruses expressing HMGB1 to transduce SCC cell lines (SCC12 and SCC13). Enhanced HMGB1 expression significantly promoted cellular proliferation and colony formation capacity.Notably, HMGB1 overexpression elevated the levels of proliferation regulators, including P63, SOX2, CDK4 and CDK6. Furthermore, HMGB1 overexpression substantially enhanced tumor invasiveness, accompanied by upregulation of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) biomarkers. Mechanistically, overexpression of HMGB1 enhanced transforming growth factor-β signaling by increasing phosphorylation of SMAD2/3, the key mediators of EMT.
Conclusion
These data imply that HMGB1 acts as a tumor-promoting factor in cSCC.
3.Efficacy and Safety of Juan Bi Pill with Add-on Methotrexate in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis: A 48-Week, Multicentre, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.
Qing-Yun JIA ; Yi-Ru WANG ; Da-Wei SUN ; Jian-Chun MAO ; Luan XUE ; Xiao-Hua GU ; Xiang YU ; Xue-Mei PIAO ; Hao XU ; Qian-Qian LIANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(2):99-107
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the efficacy and safety of Juan Bi Pill (JBP) in treatment of active rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
METHODS:
From February 2017 to May 2018, 115 participants from 4 centers were randomly divided into JBP group (57 cases) and placebo group (58 cases) in a 1:1 ratio using a random number table method. Participants received a dose of JBP (4 g, twice a day, orally) combined with methotrexate (MTX, 10 mg per week) or placebo (4 g, twice a day, orally) combined with MTX for 12 weeks. Participants were required with follow-up visits at 24 and 48 weeks, attending 7 assessment visits. Participants were undergo disease activity assessment 7 times (at baseline and 2, 4, 8, 12, 24, 48 weeks) and safety assessments 6 times (at baseline and 4, 8, 12, 24, 48 weeks). The primary endpoint was 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP). The secondary endpoints included American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for 20% and 50% improvement (ACR20/50), Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI), clinical disease activity index (CDAI), visual analog scale (VAS), Short Form-36 (SF-36) score, Medial Outcomes Study (MOS) sleep scale score, serum erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), tender joint count, swollen joint count, and morning stiffness. The adverse reactions were observed during the treatment.
RESULTS:
After 12 weeks of treatment, DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP scores in both groups were lower than before treatment (both P<0.01), while the remission rate of DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP and low disease activity of JBP group were higher than those in the placebo group (both P<0.01). JBP demonstrated better efficacy on ACR20 and ACR50 compliance rate at 12 and 48 weeks comparing to placebo (all P<0.05). The CDAI and HAQ-DI score, pain VAS and global VAS change of RA patients and physicians, the serum ESR and CRP levels, and the number of tenderness and swelling joints were lower than before treatment at 4, 8, 12, 24, 48 weeks in both groups (P<0.05 or P<0.01), while the reduction of above indices in the JBP group was more obvious than those in the placebo group at 12 weeks (ESR and CRP, both P<0.05) or at 12 and 48 weeks (all P<0.01). There was no difference in adverse reactions between the 2 groups during treatment (P=0.75).
CONCLUSION
JBP combined with MTX could effectively reduce disease activity in patients with RA in active stage, reduce the symptoms of arthritis, and improve the quality of life, while ensuring safety, reliability, and fewer adverse effects. (Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT02885597).
Humans
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy*
;
Methotrexate/adverse effects*
;
Female
;
Double-Blind Method
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
;
Drug Therapy, Combination
;
Adult
;
Antirheumatic Agents/adverse effects*
;
Aged
4.Lu'e Biyan Formula for Treatment of Allergic Rhinitis Patients with Fei (Lung)-Qi Deficiency-Coldness Syndrome: A Randomized, Double Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Trial.
Ming-Yue JIA ; Mei-Yi ZHANG ; Si-Yao XIAO ; Yang YU ; Xiang SHAO ; Chun-Sheng HAN ; Gui-Ling HAN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(11):1029-1036
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical effect and safety of Lu'e Biyan Formula (LBF) combined with loratadine in the treatment of moderate to severe allergic rhinitis (AR) patients with Fei (Lung)-qi deficiency-coldness (FQDC) syndrome.
METHODS:
From September 2023 to December 2024, moderate to severe AR patients with FQDC syndrome were recruited from the Outpatient Department of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine for Pulmonary Diseases Part 1, China-Japan Friendship Hospital. Participants were randomly assigned to a test group and a control group by using a random number table at a ratio of 1:1. Both groups received oral loratadine tablets (10 mg, once daily) for 2 weeks. In addition, the test group received oral LBF (30 mL, twice daily), and the control group received a placebo of LBF. Changes in the Total Nasal Symptom Score (TNSS), Total Non-nasal Symptom Score (TNNSS), Visual Analog Scale (VAS), Rhinoconjunctivitis Quality of Life Questionnaire (RQLQ), and Chinese medicine (CM) syndrome scores before and after treatment were compared between groups. Moreover, the total effective rates and disease recurrence rates were compared. Adverse events (AEs) during the study period were also recorded.
RESULTS:
Totally 109 participants were recruited, and the full analysis set included 105 cases, 54 in the test group and 51 in the control group. Compared with the pre-treatment values, the scores of sneezing, runny nose, nasal obstruction, nasal itching, TNSS, TNNSS, VAS, RQLQ, and CM syndrome were significantly reduced in both groups at 1 and 2 weeks post-treatment and 12 weeks post-drug withdrawal (P<0.01). After treatment, the aforementioned scores in the test group were all markedly lower than those in the control group (P<0.01). Moreover, the total effective rate in the test group was higher than that in the control group (98.15% vs. 70.59%, P<0.01). After 12 weeks of drug withdrawal, there was no significant difference in the recurrence rate between groups (13.21% vs. 22.22%, P>0.05). No obvious AEs were observed in either group following treatment.
CONCLUSIONS
The combination of LBF with loratadine can effectively alleviate the symptoms of moderate to severe AR patients with FQDC syndrome, thereby improving their quality of life. This therapy demonstrated both precise effect and high safety. (Trial registration No. ITMCTR2025000589).
Humans
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Male
;
Rhinitis, Allergic/drug therapy*
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Double-Blind Method
;
Quality of Life
;
Qi
;
Middle Aged
;
Loratadine/therapeutic use*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Syndrome
;
Lung/drug effects*
;
Young Adult
;
Treatment Outcome
5.Kaempferol-A Natural Drug for Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Hong-Mei HONG ; Jia-Wang ZHOU ; Ming-Yu LI ; Gui-Feng HAO ; Zhi-Jun XIE
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(12):1119-1128
6.4 Weeks of HIIT Modulates Metabolic Homeostasis of Hippocampal Pyruvate-lactate Axis in CUMS Rats Improving Their Depression-like Behavior
Yu-Mei HAN ; Chun-Hui BAO ; Zi-Wei ZHANG ; Jia-Ren LIANG ; Huan XIANG ; Jun-Sheng TIAN ; Shi ZHOU ; Shuang-Shuang WU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1468-1483
ObjectiveTo investigate the role of 4-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) in modulating the metabolic homeostasis of the pyruvate-lactate axis in the hippocampus of rats with chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) to improve their depressive-like behavior. MethodsForty-eight SPF-grade 8-week-old male SD rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: the normal quiet group (C), the CUMS quiet group (M), the normal exercise group (HC), and the CUMS exercise group (HM). The M and HM groups received 8 weeks of CUMS modeling, while the HC and HM groups were exposed to 4 weeks of HIIT starting from the 5th week (3 min (85%-90%) Smax+1 min (50%-55%) Smax, 3-5 cycles, Smax is the maximum movement speed). A lactate analyzer was used to detect the blood lactate concentration in the quiet state of rats in the HC and HM groups at week 4 and in the 0, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 h after exercise, as well as in the quiet state of rats in each group at week 8. Behavioral indexes such as sucrose preference rate, number of times of uprightness and number of traversing frames in the absenteeism experiment, and other behavioral indexes were used to assess the depressive-like behavior of the rats at week 4 and week 8. The rats were anesthetized on the next day after the behavioral test in week 8, and hippocampal tissues were taken for assay. LC-MS non-targeted metabolomics, target quantification, ELISA and Western blot were used to detect the changes in metabolite content, lactate and pyruvate concentration, the content of key metabolic enzymes in the pyruvate-lactate axis, and the protein expression levels of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs). Results4-week HIIT intervention significantly increased the sucrose preference rate, the number of uprights and the number of traversed frames in the absent field experiment in CUMS rats; non-targeted metabolomics assay found that 21 metabolites were significantly changed in group M compared to group C, and 14 and 11 differential metabolites were significantly dialed back in the HC and HM groups, respectively, after the 4-week HIIT intervention; the quantitative results of the targeting showed that, compared to group C, lactate concentration in the hippocampal tissues of M group, compared with group C, lactate concentration in hippocampal tissue was significantly reduced and pyruvate concentration was significantly increased, and 4-week HIIT intervention significantly increased the concentration of lactate and pyruvate in hippocampal tissue of HM group; the trend of changes in blood lactate concentration was consistent with the change in lactate concentration in hippocampal tissue; compared with group C, the LDHB content of group M was significantly increased, the content of PKM2 and PDH, as well as the protein expression level of MCT2 and MCT4 were significantly reduced. The 4-week HIIT intervention upregulated the PKM2 and PDH content as well as the protein expression levels of MCT2 and MCT4 in the HM group. ConclusionThe 4-week HIIT intervention upregulated blood lactate concentration and PKM2 and PDH metabolizing enzymes in hippocampal tissues of CUMS rats, and upregulated the expression of MCT2 and MCT4 transport carrier proteins to promote central lactate uptake and utilization, which regulated metabolic homeostasis of the pyruvate-lactate axis and improved depressive-like behaviors.
7.Four Weeks of HIIT Modulates Lactate-mediated Synaptic Plasticity to Improve Depressive-like Behavior in CUMS Rats
Yu-Mei HAN ; Zi-Wei ZHANG ; Jia-Ren LIANG ; Chun-Hui BAO ; Jun-Sheng TIAN ; Shi ZHOU ; Huan XIANG ; Yong-Hong YANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1499-1510
ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the effects of 4-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on synaptic plasticity in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) of rats exposed to chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS), and to explore its potential mechanisms. MethodsA total of 48 male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: control (C), model (M), control plus HIIT (HC), and model plus HIIT (HM). Rats in groups M and HM underwent 8 weeks of CUMS to establish depression-like behaviors, while groups HC and HM received HIIT intervention beginning from the 5th week for 4 consecutive weeks. The HIIT protocol consisted of repeated intervals of 3 min at high speed (85%-90% maximal training speed, Smax) alternated with one minute at low speed (50%-55% Smax), with 3 to 5 sets per session, conducted 5 d per week. Behavioral assessments and tail-vein blood lactate levels were measured at the end of the 4th and 8th weeks. After the intervention, rat PFC tissues were collected for Golgi staining to analyze synaptic morphology. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were employed to detect brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), monocarboxylate transporter 1 (MCT1), lactate, and glutamate levels in the PFC, as well as serotonin (5-HT) levels in serum. Additionally, Western blot analysis was conducted to quantify the expression of synaptic plasticity-related proteins, including c-Fos, activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (Arc), and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor 1 (NMDAR1). ResultsCompared to the control group (C), the CUMS-exposed rats (group M) exhibited significant reductions in sucrose preference rates, number of grid crossings, frequency of upright postures, and entries into and duration spent in open arms of the elevated plus maze, indicating marked depressive-like behaviors. Additionally, the group M showed significantly reduced dendritic spine density in the PFC, along with elevated levels of c-Fos, Arc, NMDAR1 protein expression, and increased concentrations of lactate and glutamate. Conversely, BDNF and MCT1 contents in the PFC and 5-HT levels in serum were significantly decreased. Following HIIT intervention, rats in the group HM displayed considerable improvement in behavioral indicators compared with the group M, accompanied by significant elevations in PFC MCT1 and lactate concentrations. Furthermore, HIIT notably normalized the expression levels of c-Fos, Arc, NMDAR1, as well as glutamate and BDNF contents in the PFC. Synaptic spine density also exhibited significant recovery. ConclusionFour weeks of HIIT intervention may alleviate depressive-like behaviors in CUMS rats by increasing lactate levels and reducing glutamate concentration in the PFC, thereby downregulating the overexpression of NMDAR, attenuating excitotoxicity, and enhancing synaptic plasticity.
8.Establishment and evaluation of a lipopolysaccharide-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome model in minipigs
Chuang-Ye WANG ; Ran WANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Ling-Xiao QIU ; Bin QING ; Heng YOU ; Jin-Cheng LIU ; Bin WANG ; Nan-Bo WANG ; Jia-Yu LI ; Xing LIU ; Shuang WANG ; Jin HU ; Jian WEN ; Quan LI ; Xiao-Ou HUANG ; Kun ZHAO ; Shuang-Lin LIU ; Gang LIU ; Mei-Ju WANG ; Qing XIANG ; Hong-Mei WU ; Xiao-Rong SUN ; Tao GU ; Dong ZHANG ; Qi LI ; Zhi XU
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(9):1154-1161
Objective To establish a stable,reliable,and clinically relevant porcine model of endotoxin-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS).Methods Ten 8-month-old male Bama minipigs were deeply sedated,followed by invasive mechanical ventilation and electrocardiographic monitoring.Lipopolysaccharide(LPS)was intravenously pumped at 600 μg/(kg·h)for 3 hours,then maintained at 15 μg/(kg·h)thereafter.Dynamic monitoring was performed at five time points after LPS injection(LPS 0,1,3,5,and 8 h),including arterial blood gas analysis and chest computed tomography(CT)scans.Pathological examination of lung tissues obtained via bronchoscopic biopsy(HE staining and transmission electron microscopy)was conducted.These indicators were comprehensively used to evaluate the success of the animal model.Results At 5 hours after LPS administration,8 minipigs developed symptoms such as skin cyanosis,elevated body temperature,and respiratory distress.The oxygenation index decreased to<300 mmHg.Chest CT scans showed diffuse pulmonary infiltrates.Histopathology revealed alveolar edema and hyaline membrane formation.Transmission electron microscopy demonstrated disruption of pulmonary blood-air barrier,depletion of lamellar bodies in type Ⅱ pneumocytes,inflammatory cell infiltration,and exudation of plasma proteins and fibrin.Compared with LPS 0 h,at LPS 8 h,the oxygenation index and arterial blood pH were significantly decreased(P<0.001),while blood lactic acid and serum potassium were significantly increased(P<0.05);serum calcium and base excess were significantly decreased(P<0.05),and the lung injury score based on HE-stained lung sections was significantly increased(P<0.01).Conclusion The porcine ARDS model established by continuous LPS injection can dynamically simulate the pathophysiological characteristics and typical pathological manifestations of clinical septic ARDS,making it an effective tool to study the pathogenesis,prevention,and treatment strategies of septic ARDS.
9.Risk factor analysis and nomogram prediction model construction for pneumonia complicating infectious mononucleosis in adults
Fei HU ; Mei-Juan PENG ; Xu-Yang ZHENG ; Rui LI ; Jia-Yi ZHAN ; Hai-Feng HU ; Hong-Kai XU ; Deng-Hui YU ; Hong DU ; Jian-Qi LIAN
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(11):1359-1365
Objective To investigate the risk factors for pneumonia complicating infectious mononucleosis(IM)in adults and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 198 IM patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from January 2015 to December 2021.Patients were divided into pneumonia group(n=52)and non-pneumonia group(n=146)based on whether pulmonary infection occurred during hospitalization.The baseline data(age,gender,place of onset,etc.),clinical manifestations(maximum body temperature,lymph node enlargement,splenomegaly,etc.),and inflammatory indicators[white blood cell count(WBC),C-reactive protein(CRP),etc.]were compared between the two groups.Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to analyze the key indicators affecting the hospital stay of IM patients.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for pneumonia complicating IM in adults and construct a nomogram prediction model based on the identified risk factors.The predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the consistency of the model was assessed using the calibration curve.The fit of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Additionally,the sensitivity,specificity,and accuracy of the model were assessed using confusion matrix.Results Compared with non-pneumonia group,the pneumonia group had a significantly higher proportion of patients from rural areas,with body mass index(BMI)≥24 kg/m2,smoking history,hepatomegaly,fever duration of≥7 d,as well as increased total hospitalization costs and average daily hospitalization costs,and prolonged hospital stay(P<0.05).The proportion of patients with a history of antibiotic use was lower in the pneumonia group(P<0.05).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients from rural areas,with BMI≥24 kg/m2,smoking history,no prophylactic use of antibiotics,fever duration≥7 d,and hepatomegaly had significantly prolonged hospital stays(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that living in a rural area(OR=4.089,P<0.05),hepatomegaly(OR=4.082,P<0.05),and elevated WBC(OR=1.205,P<0.05)were independent risk factors for pneumonia complicating IM in adults,while the prophylactic use of antibiotics(OR=0.142,P<0.05)was an independent protective factor.The area under the ROC curve of the constructed nomogram prediction model was 0.827(95%CI 0.762-0.892),and the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=5.299,P=0.725,indicating good consistency and fit of the prediction model.The results of the confusion matrix assessment showed that the sensitivity of the model was 0.669(0.624-0.773),the specificity was 0.827(0.724-0.930),and the accuracy was 0.732(0.665-0.793).Conclusion The nomogram prediction model based on place of onset,hepatomegaly,the prophylactic use of antibiotics and WBC has excellent fit and discrimination,providing an effective quantitative tool for prognosis assessment of IM.
10.Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for postoperative pulmonary complications in elderly patients following general anesthesia
Jingjun ZHANG ; Lili JIA ; Mingwei SHENG ; Ying SUN ; Mei DING ; Weihua LIU ; Hongxia LI ; Yiqi WENG ; Wenli YU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(9):1237-1244
Objective:To develop and validate a clinical prediction model for assessing the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in elderly patients undergoing surgery with general anesthesia.Methods:This prospective observational study enrolled patients aged ≥65 years who underwent general anesthesia with mechanical ventilation duration >3 hours across six tertiary hospitals between December 2022 and August 2023. Based on follow-up outcomes (until discharge or postoperative day 7), patients were categorized into a non-PPCs group and a PPCs group. Detailed records included baseline patient characteristics, preoperative comorbidities, surgical information (type, duration), and bedside lung ultrasound scores (LUS) assessed within 24 hours postoperatively using a standardized 12-zone protocol. Predictor selection was performed using LASSO regression. Significant predictors identified were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression analysis to build the prediction model, visualized as a nomogram. Internal validation was conducted via bootstrap resampling (1 000 repetitions). Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination, calibration curves for calibration accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical utility.Results:A total of 130 eligible elderly surgical patients were included. PPCs occurred in 17 patients (incidence rate: 13.1%). Multivariate analysis identified LUS ( OR=1.248, 95% CI: 1.099-1.417, P=0.001) and elective surgery type ( OR=0.206, 95% CI: 0.043-0.988, P=0.048) as independent predictors of PPCs. The nomogram model demonstrated an AUC of 0.867 (95% CI: 0.775-0.959) upon initial testing. Internal validation confirmed good discrimination (AUC=0.863, 95% CI: 0.778-0.972). Calibration curves indicated excellent agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated significant clinical net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities (0.03-0.89). Conclusions:The clinical prediction model, developed using early postoperative LUS scores and surgical type, effectively predicts the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications in elderly patients following surgery under general anesthesia. The model exhibits strong discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, providing clinicians with a reliable tool for individualized risk assessment to support clinical decision-making and potentially reduce PPC incidence.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail