Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

Objective: The CT/MRI Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) demonstrates high specificity with relatively limited sensitivity for diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in high-risk patients. This study aimed to explore the possibility of improving sensitivity by combining CT/MRI LI-RADS v2018 with second-line contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) LI-RADS v2017 using sulfur hexafluoride (SHF) or perfluorobutane (PFB). Materials and Methods: This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected multicenter data included high-risk patients with treatment-naive hepatic observations. The reference standard was pathological confirmation or a composite reference standard (only for benign lesions). Each participant underwent concurrent CT/MRI, SHF-enhanced US, and PFB-enhanced US examinations. The diagnostic performances for HCC of CT/MRI LI-RADS alone and three combination strategies (combining CT/ MRI LI-RADS with either LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or a modified algorithm incorporating the Kupffer-phase findings for PFB [modified PFB]) were evaluated. For the three combination strategies, apart from the CT/MRI LR-5 criteria, HCC was diagnosed if CT/MRI LR-3 or LR-4 observations met the LR-5 criteria using LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or modified PFB. Results: In total, 281 participants (237 males; mean age, 55 ± 11 years) with 306 observations (227 HCCs, 40 non-HCC malignancies, and 39 benign lesions) were included. Using LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, and modified PFB, 20, 23, and 31 CT/MRI LR-3/4 observations, respectively, were reclassified as LR-5, and all were pathologically confirmed as HCCs. Compared to CT/MRI LI-RADS alone (74%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 68%–79%), the three combination strategies combining CT/MRI LI-RADS with either LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or modified PFB increased sensitivity (83% [95% CI: 77%–87%], 84% [95% CI: 79%–89%], 88% [95% CI: 83%–92%], respectively; all P < 0.001), while maintaining the specificity at 92% (95% CI: 84%–97%). Conclusion The combination of CT/MRI LI-RADS with second-line CEUS using SHF or PFB improved the sensitivity of HCC diagnosis without compromising specificity.

Objective: Previous studies have discovered a correlation between cigarette smoking and cortical thickness and surface area, but the causal relationship remains unclear. The objective of this investigation is to scrutinize the causal association between them. Methods: To derive summary statistics from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on cortical thickness, surface area, and four smoking behaviors: 1) age of initiation of regular smoking (AgeSmk); 2) smoking initiation (SmkInit); 3) smoking cessation (SmkCes); 4) cigarettes per day (CigDay). Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) was employed to examine genetic association analysis. Furthermore, for traits with significant genetic associations, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted. Results: The LDSC analysis revealed nominal genetic correlations between AgeSmk and right precentral surface area, left caudal anterior cingulate surface area, left cuneus surface area, left inferior parietal surface area, and right caudal anterior cingulate thickness, as well as between CigDay and left caudal middle frontal surface area, between SmkCes and left entorhinal thickness, and between SmkInit and left rostral anterior cingulate surface area, right rostral anterior cingulate thickness, and right superior frontal thickness (rg=-0.36–0.29, p<0.05). MR analysis showed a unidirectional causal association between left caudal middle frontal surface area and CigDay (βIVW=0.056, pBonferroni=2×10-4). Conclusion Left caudal middle frontal surface area has the potential to serve as a significant predictor of smoking behavior.

Background/Aims: This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings. Methods: Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study. Results: One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups. Conclusions Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.

Flexible ureteral lithotripsy (FURL) under general anesthesia (GA) is the dominant method in the treatment of renal and upper ureteral calculi，but some patients cannot tolerate GA.In recent years，there has been a growing interest in the use of local anesthesia (LA) as a safe and effective alternative.And it is also an option for patients who have calculi ≤20 mm with high fragility，lower CT value and better compatibility.Before surgery，it is important to conduct relevant examinations，evaluate the status of patients，prevent infections，and indwell ureteral stents.During surgery，lithotomy position，scissors position，prone leg position and other positions should be selected according to the specific conditions of patients.LA drugs should be used to control physiological pain and relieve psychological anxiety.Patients' breathing state should be carefully monitored，and appropriate ureteroscope and lens sheath should be selected for the success and safety of the operation.In this paper，the perioperative management of FURL under LA is briefly summarized，so as to provide reference for clinical practice.

Locomotion, a fundamental motor function encompassing various forms such as swimming, walking, running, and flying, is essential for animal survival and adaptation. The mesencephalic locomotor region (MLR), located at the midbrain-hindbrain junction, is a conserved brain area critical for controlling locomotion. This review highlights recent advances in understanding the MLR’s structure and function across species, from lampreys to mammals and birds, with a particular focus on insights gained from optogenetic studies in mammals. The goal is to uncover universal strategies for MLR-mediated locomotor control. Electrical stimulation of the MLR in species such as lampreys, salamanders, cats, and mice initiates locomotion and modulates speed and patterns. For example, in lampreys, MLR stimulation induces swimming, with increased intensity or frequency enhancing propulsive force. Similarly, in salamanders, graded stimulation transitions locomotor outputs from walking to swimming. Histochemical studies reveal that effective MLR stimulation sites colocalize with cholinergic neurons, suggesting a conserved neurochemical basis for locomotion control. In mammals, the MLR comprises two key nuclei: the cuneiform nucleus (CnF) and the pedunculopontine nucleus (PPN). Both nuclei contain glutamatergic and GABAergic neurons, with the PPN additionally housing cholinergic neurons. Optogenetic studies in mice by selectively activating glutamatergic neurons have demonstrated that the CnF and PPN play distinct roles in motor control: the CnF drives rapid escape behaviors, while the PPN regulates slower, exploratory movements. This functional specialization within the MLR allows animals to adapt their locomotion patterns and speed in response to environmental demands and behavioral objectives. Similar to findings in lampreys, the CnF and PPN in mice transmit motor commands to spinal effector circuits by modulating the activity of brainstem reticular formation neurons. However, they achieve this through distinct reticulospinal pathways, enabling the generation of specific behaviors. Further insights from monosynaptic rabies viral tracing reveal that the CnF and PPN integrate inputs from diverse brain regions to produce context-appropriate behaviors. For instance, glutamatergic neurons in the PPN receive signals from other midbrain structures, the basal ganglia, and medullary nuclei, whereas glutamatergic neurons in the CnF rarely receive inputs from the basal ganglia but instead are strongly influenced by the periaqueductal grey and inferior colliculus within the midbrain. These differential connectivity patterns underscore the specialized roles of the CnF and PPN in motor control, highlighting their unique contributions to coordinating locomotion. Birds exhibit exceptional flight capabilities, yet the avian MLR remains poorly understood. Comparative studies suggest that the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTg) in birds is homologous to the mammalian PPN, which contains cholinergic neurons, while the intercollicular nucleus (ICo) or nucleus isthmi pars magnocellularis (ImC) may correspond to the CnF. These findings provide important clues for identifying the avian MLR and elucidating its role in flight control. However, functional validation through targeted experiments is urgently needed to confirm these hypotheses. Optogenetics and other advanced techniques in mice have greatly advanced MLR research, enabling precise manipulation of specific neuronal populations. Future studies should extend these methods to other species, particularly birds, to explore unique locomotor adaptations. Comparative analyses of MLR structure and function across species will deepen our understanding of the conserved and evolved features of motor control, revealing fundamental principles of locomotion regulation throughout evolution. By integrating findings from diverse species, we can uncover how the MLR has been adapted to meet the locomotor demands of different environments, from aquatic to aerial habitats.

Objective: The CT/MRI Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) demonstrates high specificity with relatively limited sensitivity for diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in high-risk patients. This study aimed to explore the possibility of improving sensitivity by combining CT/MRI LI-RADS v2018 with second-line contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) LI-RADS v2017 using sulfur hexafluoride (SHF) or perfluorobutane (PFB). Materials and Methods: This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected multicenter data included high-risk patients with treatment-naive hepatic observations. The reference standard was pathological confirmation or a composite reference standard (only for benign lesions). Each participant underwent concurrent CT/MRI, SHF-enhanced US, and PFB-enhanced US examinations. The diagnostic performances for HCC of CT/MRI LI-RADS alone and three combination strategies (combining CT/ MRI LI-RADS with either LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or a modified algorithm incorporating the Kupffer-phase findings for PFB [modified PFB]) were evaluated. For the three combination strategies, apart from the CT/MRI LR-5 criteria, HCC was diagnosed if CT/MRI LR-3 or LR-4 observations met the LR-5 criteria using LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or modified PFB. Results: In total, 281 participants (237 males; mean age, 55 ± 11 years) with 306 observations (227 HCCs, 40 non-HCC malignancies, and 39 benign lesions) were included. Using LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, and modified PFB, 20, 23, and 31 CT/MRI LR-3/4 observations, respectively, were reclassified as LR-5, and all were pathologically confirmed as HCCs. Compared to CT/MRI LI-RADS alone (74%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 68%–79%), the three combination strategies combining CT/MRI LI-RADS with either LI-RADS SHF, LI-RADS PFB, or modified PFB increased sensitivity (83% [95% CI: 77%–87%], 84% [95% CI: 79%–89%], 88% [95% CI: 83%–92%], respectively; all P < 0.001), while maintaining the specificity at 92% (95% CI: 84%–97%). Conclusion The combination of CT/MRI LI-RADS with second-line CEUS using SHF or PFB improved the sensitivity of HCC diagnosis without compromising specificity.

Objective: Previous studies have discovered a correlation between cigarette smoking and cortical thickness and surface area, but the causal relationship remains unclear. The objective of this investigation is to scrutinize the causal association between them. Methods: To derive summary statistics from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on cortical thickness, surface area, and four smoking behaviors: 1) age of initiation of regular smoking (AgeSmk); 2) smoking initiation (SmkInit); 3) smoking cessation (SmkCes); 4) cigarettes per day (CigDay). Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) was employed to examine genetic association analysis. Furthermore, for traits with significant genetic associations, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted. Results: The LDSC analysis revealed nominal genetic correlations between AgeSmk and right precentral surface area, left caudal anterior cingulate surface area, left cuneus surface area, left inferior parietal surface area, and right caudal anterior cingulate thickness, as well as between CigDay and left caudal middle frontal surface area, between SmkCes and left entorhinal thickness, and between SmkInit and left rostral anterior cingulate surface area, right rostral anterior cingulate thickness, and right superior frontal thickness (rg=-0.36–0.29, p<0.05). MR analysis showed a unidirectional causal association between left caudal middle frontal surface area and CigDay (βIVW=0.056, pBonferroni=2×10-4). Conclusion Left caudal middle frontal surface area has the potential to serve as a significant predictor of smoking behavior.

Background/Aims: This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings. Methods: Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study. Results: One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups. Conclusions Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.