Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

Depression is a common mental disorder that falls under the category of "stagnation syndrome" in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Its complex pathogenesis poses challenges for the development of novel therapeutic agents. Currently， clinically used antidepressants are often accompanied by significant side effects， and statistics show that about one-third of patients do not respond to these medications. TCM demonstrates advantages in the treatment of depression through multi-target， multi-pathway and multi-mechanistic approaches. Pinelliae Rhizoma， a phlegm-resolving herb， exhibits effects such as drying dampness and resolving phlegm， as well as eliminating stuffiness and reducing masses. The characteristics of harmonizing Yin and Yang and resolving stagnation in the middle energizer align precisely with the pathogenesis of depression syndrome， demonstrating therapeutic efficacy in affected patients. Literature studies have found that the active ingredients of Pinelliae Rhizoma， such as cavidine， baicalein， β-sitosterol， as well as Pinelliae Rhizoma herb pairs， such as Pinelliae Rhizoma-Magnoliae Officinalis Cortex， Pinelliae Rhizoma-husked sorghum， Pinelliae Rhizoma-Prunellae Spica， exhibit significant antidepressant effects. Furthermore， TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma as the principal therapeutic agent， such as Banxia Xiexin Tang， Banxia Houpo Tang， and Wendan Tang， as well as formulas incorporating Pinelliae Rhizoma like compound Xiaochaihu Tang， Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Tang， and Erchen Tang， have also demonstrated favorable antidepressant efficacy. The antidepressant mechanism of these agents may involve modulation of 5-hydroxytryptamine （5-HT） and dopamine （DA） levels， up-regulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF） expression， regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal （HPA） axis， reduction of oxidative stress， modulation of nuclear transcription factor-κB （NF-κB） signaling pathway， and inhibition of microglia-mediated inflammatory responses. This review summarized the antidepressant mechanisms and clinical applications of the active components， herb pairs， and TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma， aiming to provide a reference for modern research on the use of Pinelliae Rhizoma in antidepressant therapy.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid （ω-3PUFA） combined with clomiphene on clinical efficacy， pregnancy and safety in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome （PCOS）. METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 112 PCOS patients who received treatment in Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Hunan Prevention and Treatment Institute for Occupational Diseases from January 2022 to December 2023. According to the different treatment regimens， the patients were divided into single-drug group （60 cases） and drug-combination group （52 cases）. Single-drug group was given clomiphene orally， and drug-combination group was given clomiphene+ω-3PUFA. Clinical efficacy， pregnancy status and the occurrence of adverse drug reaction （ADR） as well as ovarian function and oxidative stress indexes before and after treatment were compared between 2 groups. RESULTS The overall response rate （90.38% vs. 71.67%）， ovulation rate （84.62% vs. 61.67%）， and pregnancy rate （51.92% vs. 26.67%） were all markedly higher in drug combination group than single drug group （ P ＜0.05）. Before treatment， there was no statistical significance in ovarian function and oxidative stress indexes between 2 groups （ P ＞0.05）. Compared with before treatment， serum anti-Müllerian hormone levels， inhibin B concentr ations， and the number of cystic follicles in 2 groups were decreased significantly after 12 weeks of treatment （ P ＜0.05）. The endometrial thickness increased significantly （ P ＜0.05）， while the serum levels of malondialdehyde and advanced oxidation protein products decreased significantly （ P ＜0.05）； the activities of serum superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase increased significantly （ P ＜0.05）； the improvement of drug combination group was significantly better than single drug group （ P ＜0.05）. The ovarian volumes in both groups were significantly smaller after treatment compared to before treatment （ P ＜0.05）， but there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups （ P ＞0.05）. There was no significant difference in the overall incidence of ADR between the two groups during the treatment （ P ＞0.05）. CONCLUSIONS The combination of ω-3PUFA and clomiphene has a definite therapeutic effect on PCOS， which can effectively reduce the body’s oxidative stress response， improve ovarian function， and increase ovulation and pregnancy rates.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Yiqi wenyang huwei decoction （YQWY） in improving airway inflammation and remodeling in rats with bronchial asthma （BA） based on the Toll-like receptor 4 （TLR4）/myeloid differentiation primary response protein 88 （MyD88）/nuclear factor-κB （NF-κB） signaling pathway. METHODS Male SD rats were randomly divided into the normal group， the model group， the dexamethasone group （positive control， 0.5 mg/kg）， and YQWY low-， medium- and high-dose groups （5， 10， 20 g/kg， calculated by the crude drug）， with 8 rats in each group. Except for the normal group， rats in all other groups were sensitized twice with ovalbumin combined with aerosol challenge to establish a BA model. From day 14 to day 34 of the experiment， the rats in each group were administered the corresponding drug solution or normal saline intragastrically， once a day， 1 hour before aerosol challenge. At 24 hours after the final aerosol challenge， asthma symptom scores were assessed， serum levels of immunoglobulin E （IgE） were measured， and the levels of inflammatory cytokines （interleukin-4， interleukin-5， interleukin-13 and tumor necrosis factor-α） and the numbers of inflammatory cells （white blood cell， eosinophil， neutrophil， lymphocyte， monocyte and basophil） in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid were determined. Pathological changes in lung tissue were observed. The mRNA expressions of TLR4， MyD88 and NF-κB， as well as the protein expressions of TLR4， MyD88， NF-κB p65 and phosphorylated NF-κB p65 in lung tissue， were detected. RESULTS Compared with the model group， the pathological changes， such as inflammatory cell infiltration， abnormal deposition of collagen fibers， and goblet cell hyperplasia in the lung tissue of rats in each drug group， were alleviated to varying degrees. The asthma symptom scores （except for the YQWY low-dose group）， the levels of IgE and inflammatory cytokines （except for interleukin-5 in the YQWY medium-dose group）， the number of inflammatory cells （except for monocyte and basophil in the YQWY low-dose group）， the mRNA expression of TLR4， MyD88 and NF-κB， as well as the protein expressions of TLR4， MyD88， NF-κB p65 and phosphorylated NF-κB p65 （except for MyD88 and NF-κB p65 proteins in the YQWY low-dose group as detected by Western blo t） were all significantly reduced or down-regulated （ P ＜0.05 or P ＜0.01）. CONCLUSIONS YQWY can alleviate asthma-like manifestations in BA rats and improve their airway inflammation and remodeling； these effects may be related to the formula’s inhibition of the abnormal activation of the TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling pathway.

OBJECTIVE To establish a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines in medical institutions， so as to improve medication safety and regulatory efficiency. METHODS Based on policy analysis and hospital practice， a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines was constructed by integrating institutional frameworks， an information‑based platform and management procedures， and the management effectiveness was evaluated. RESULTS Our hospital formulated the Regulations on the Management of Externally Dispensed Medicines ， which standardized catalogue selection， prescription issuance， acceptance and use， supervision and evaluation. An information‑based management platform for externally dispensed medicines was built relying on the hospital information system， enabling electronic prescription circulation， intelligent prescription review and whole‑process traceability. Institutional requirements and platform functions were embedded into three core management procedures， namely catalogue selection， prescription issuance， and medicine acceptance and use， forming a closed‑loop working mechanism. After the implementation of the management system， compared with pre‑implementation， the qualified rate of externally dispensed prescriptions increased from 85.2% to 99.3% （ P ＜0.001）， the automatic prescription review pass rate exceeded 95%， the prescription review duration shortened from 7.2 min to 1.8 min （ P ＜0.001）. All dimensional satisfaction scores of patients and medical staff were significantly improved， the standardization awareness of medical staff reached 100%. CONCLUSIONS The construction of a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines with standardized institutional frameworks， informatized platforms and standardized procedures effectively enhances the rationality and management efficiency of externally dispensed prescription medicines， and provides a replicable practical pathway for the management of externally dispensed medicines in medical institutions.

Objective To compare the benefits and drawbacks of primary patch expansion versus pericardial tube right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection in patients diagnosed with pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect (PA/VSD). Methods A retrospective study was conducted on patients diagnosed with PA/VSD who underwent primary right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection surgery at our center between 2010 and 2020. Patients were categorized into two groups based on the type of right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection: a pericardial tube group and a patch expansion group. Clinical data and imaging findings were compared between the two groups. Results A total of 51 patients were included in the study, comprising 31 males and 20 females, with a median age of 12.57 (4.57, 49.67) months. The pericardial tube group included 19 patients with a median age of 17.17 (7.33, 49.67) months, while the patch expansion group consisted of 32 patients with a median age of 8.58 (3.57, 52.72) months. In both groups, the diameter of pulmonary artery, McGoon index, and Nakata index significantly increased after treatment (P<0.001). However, the pericardial tube group exhibited a longer extracorporeal circulation time (P<0.001). The reoperation rate was notably high, with 74.51% of patients requiring further surgical intervention, including 26 (81.25%) patients in the patch expansion group and 12 (63.16%) patients in the pericardial tube group. No statistical differences were observed in long-term cure rates or mortality between the two groups (P＞0.005). Conclusion In patients with PA/VSD, both patch expansion and pericardial tube right ventricular-pulmonary artery connection serve as effective initial palliative treatment strategies that promote pulmonary vessel development and provide a favorable foundation for subsequent radical operations. However, compared to the pericardial tube approach, the patch expansion technique is simpler to perform and preserves some intrinsic potential for pulmonary artery development, making it the preferred procedure.

In this study, RAW264.7 cells were employed to investigate the effects of honey-processed Astragalus on their energy metabolism and polarization, and explore the scientific connotation of the enhanced efficacy of honey-processed Astragalus on invigorating spleen-stomach and replenishing Qi. The medicated sera were prepared by intragastric administration of rats with water extracts of crude and honey-processed Astragalus, and the composition changes of medicated sera of crude and honey-processed Astragalus were analyzed by using LC-MS technology. The cell survival rates were detected and the concentrations of medicated sera were screened through CCK-8 assay. The differences of cell phagocytic rates, ATP energy metabolism, and NO secretion between crude and honey-processed Astragalus were evaluated by using neutral red phagocytosis assay, ATP detection kit, and NO detection kit. The effects of crude and honey-processed Astragalus on TNF-α secretion of RAW264.7 cells were detected by employing ELISA kit. The effects of crude and honey-processed Astragalus on polarization of RAW264.7 cells were evaluated by utilizing flow cytometry. The differential metabolites related to glycolysis in cell lysates and culture media were screened by using LC-MS technology. The experiment was approved by the experimental animal ethics committee from Shanxi University of Chinese Medicine (No. AWE202407352). The results showed that the contents of betaine, amino acids, and ononin in the prepared medicated sera of rats treated by intragastric administration with water extracts of honey-processed Astragalus increased compared to those in crude one. The results of CCK-8 experiment showed that there were no cytotoxic effects on RAW264.7 cells in the medicated sera of crude and honey-processd Astragalus at different concentration. The phagocytic index and ATP yield both increased to varying degrees after administration of the medicated sera to cells. The secretion of NO in normal and inflammatory cells increased and decreased respectively, and the effect of honey-processed Astragalus was better than that of crude one. The results of ELISA kit showed that the medicated sera of both crude and honey-processed Astragalus could promote the secretion of TNF-α in a concentration-dependent manner, and the promoting effect of honey-processed Astragalus was stronger than that of crude one. The results of flow cytometry showed that the medicated sera of both crude and honey-processed Astragalus could promote M1-type polarization and inhibit M2-type polarization of RAW264.7 cells, and the effect of honey-processed Astragalus was better than that of crude one. Compared to crude Astragalus, the metabolites related to glycolysis in the cell lysates and culture media of the medicated sera of honey-processed Astragalus were generally on the rise, indicating that the effect on promoting glycolysis of honey-processed Astragalus was better than that of crude one. In summary, honey-processed Astragalus can promote the polarization and energy metabolism of RAW264.7 cells, and participate in positive immune regulation, which is correlated with its enhanced effect of invigorating spleen-stomach and replenishing Qi.

OBJECTIVE To explore the pharmacokinetic characteristics of 3 blood-absorbed components of Xiangshao sanjie oral liquid in rats with hyperplasia of mammary gland （HMG）. METHODS Female SD rats were divided into control group and HMG group according to body weight， with 6 rats in each group. The HMG group was given estrogen+progesterone to construct HMG model. After modeling， two groups were given 1.485 g/kg of Xiangshao sanjie oral liquid （calculated by crude drug） intragastrically， once a day， for 7 consecutive days. Blood samples were collected before the first administration （0 h）， and at 5， 15， 30 minutes and 1， 2， 4， 8， 12， 24 hours after the last administration， respectively. Using chlorzoxazone as the internal standard， the plasma concentrations of ferulic acid， paeoniflorin and rosmarinic acid in rats were detected by UPLC-Q/TOF-MS. The pharmacokinetic parameters [area under the drug time curve （AUC0－24 h， AUC0－∞）， mean residence time （MRT0－∞）， half-life （t1/2）， peak time （tmax）， peak concentration （cmax）] were calculated by the non-atrioventricular model using Phoenix WinNonlin 8.1 software. RESULTS Compared with the control group， the AUC0－24 h， AUC0－∞ and cmax of ferulic acid in the HMG group were significantly increased （P＜0.05）； the AUC0－24 h， AUC0－∞ ， MRT0－∞ ， t1/2 and cmax of paeoniflorin increased， but there was no significant difference between 2 groups （P＞0.05）； the AUC0－24 h and MRT0-∞ of rosmarinic acid were significantly increased or prolonged （P＜0.05）. C ONCLUSIONS In HMG model rats， the exposure of ferulic acid， paeoniflorin and rosmarinic acid in Xiangshao sanjie oral liquid all increase， and the retention time of rosmarinic acid is significantly prolonged.