1.Evaluation of CARIFS Score and Negative Antigen Conversion Rate of Qingxuan Daozhi Formula in Treatment of Influenza in Children (Heat Accumulation in Lung and Stomach Syndrome):A Multi-center Randomized Controlled Clinical Study
Jing WANG ; Liqun WU ; Tiegang LIU ; Yongning CAO ; Jing QIU ; Jing LI ; Huaqing TAN ; Ying ZHANG ; Xulei GOU ; Jia WANG ; Jing LI ; Haipeng CHEN ; Xueying QIN ; Yuanshuo TIAN ; Yang WANG ; Chen BAI ; Zhendong WANG ; Qianqian LI ; He YU ; Xueyan MA ; Fei DONG ; Lin JIANG ; Yingqi XU ; Jianping LIU ; Xiaohong GU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(13):188-196
ObjectiveThis paper aims to observe the syndrome improvement and negative antigen conversion rate of Qingxuan Daozhi formula in the treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome). MethodsThrough a multi-center randomized controlled methodology design,confirmed influenza cases were collected from October 2022 to April 2023 in the pediatrics department of eight hospitals,such as Dongfang Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine. A total of 180 children with influenza and heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome conforming to the standard were recruited through the clinic. The sick children meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into groups by a block-randomized method. The children in the experimental group were treated with Qingxuan Daozhi formula for five days,and those in the control group were treated with Oseltamivir Phosphate Granules for five days. The primary efficacy indicator was the negative conversion rate of influenza antigen detection. Secondary efficacy indicators were the Canadian acute respiratory illness and flu scale (CARIFS) and the incidence of complications,severe cases, and critical cases. Follow-up observation was conducted on the day of enrollment,48 hours after medication,72 hours after medication, and (6+1) d after medication. ResultsOne hundred and eighty participants were randomly assigned to the experimental group (90 cases) or the control group (90 cases). All participants were followed up during the study. Comparison of influenza antigen detection results in the primary efficacy indicators showed that the average time of negative influenza antigen conversion in the experimental group was (5.29±1.25) d,and that in the control group was (5.40±1.68) d,without a statistically significant difference. After five days of intervention,52 cases in the experimental group and 51 cases in the control group converted to negative,without a statistically significant difference. CARIFS score results in the secondary efficacy indicators showed that during 72 hours after intervention,there were statistically significant differences between the experimental group and the control group in three dimensions, including headache,muscle soreness, and the need for extra care (P<0.05). On the (6+1) days after the intervention,the differences in both the experimental group and the control group were statistically significant in 10 dimensions, including sore throat,bad sleep,uncomfortable feeling,poor spirit and fatigue,crying more than usual,the need for extra care,symptom,function,influence on parents,and total score (P<0.05). The comparison results within the group in the dimensional scores of symptom, function, and influence on parents,as well as the CARIFS total score showed that with the delay of follow-up time,scores of both groups decreased significantly,with a statistically significant difference (P<0.01). Inter-group comparison results showed that the mean score of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group at the time of enrollment. With the progress of intervention,the score of the experimental group was significantly decreased compared with that of the control group. At the end of follow-up,the mean score of the experimental group was lower than that of the control group,with no statistically significant difference. In terms of the incidence of complications,severe cases, and critical cases, there were no complications,severe cases, and critical cases in the two groups,without a statistically significant difference. ConclusionThe symptom improvement effect and negative antigen conversion rate of Qingxuan Daozhi formula in the treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome) are not inferior to Oseltamivir Phosphate granules, and children's acceptance is better. It can be more widely used in clinical treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome).
2.Construction and Validation of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Risk Prediction Model for Carotid Artery Plaques in 3 009 Individuals with High-risk of Stroke
Shuqi QIN ; Xiangyu GUO ; Weihao YANG ; Yang CHEN ; Ying YU ; Limin HE ; Jialin WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(20):242-250
ObjectiveTo construct a risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques in high-risk populations of stroke based on five machine learning methods. MethodsThe clinical information of the high-risk population of stroke was collected. Factor analysis and statistical analysis of syndrome elements were conducted on their traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptoms and tongue and pulse manifestations. On the basis of the results of factor analysis and variable screening, five machine learning methods-classification and regression tree (CART) decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), back propagation(BP) neural network, logistic regression, and random forest-were used to construct the risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques. ResultsThe most common TCM syndrome elements in the high-risk population of stroke was Qi deficiency. The scores of Qi deficiency, Yin deficiency, and Yang deficiency in the population with carotid artery plaques were higher than those without carotid artery plaques (P<0.05). The CART decision tree, SVM, logistic regression, BP neural network, and random forest models showed the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of 0.71, 0.75, 0.76, 0.76, and 0.75, the accuracy rates of 68.94%, 69.27%, 69.44%, 70.10%, and 69.60%, the precision rates of 68.56%, 68.53%, 68.75%, 69.74%, and 69.42%, the recall rates of 68.91%, 67.93%, 67.92%, 68.10%, and 67.31%, and the F1 values of 0.69, 0.68, 0.68, 0.68, and 0.68, respectively. ConclusionAmong the high-risk population of stroke, the most frequently distributed TCM syndrome element is Qi deficiency, with the rest mainly being fire heat, Yin deficiency, Yang deficiency, phlegm dampness, blood stasis, and Qi stagnation. Deficiency syndrome may be a major factor leading to carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. The BP neural network model demonstrates better performance in predicting the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. People with carotid artery plaques are more likely to present with symptoms such as a heavy head, dizziness, headache, and thready pulse. The primary community benefits more widely when the BP neural network model is adopted to predict the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke over 40 years old.
3.Construction and Validation of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Risk Prediction Model for Carotid Artery Plaques in 3 009 Individuals with High-risk of Stroke
Shuqi QIN ; Xiangyu GUO ; Weihao YANG ; Yang CHEN ; Ying YU ; Limin HE ; Jialin WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(20):242-250
ObjectiveTo construct a risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques in high-risk populations of stroke based on five machine learning methods. MethodsThe clinical information of the high-risk population of stroke was collected. Factor analysis and statistical analysis of syndrome elements were conducted on their traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptoms and tongue and pulse manifestations. On the basis of the results of factor analysis and variable screening, five machine learning methods-classification and regression tree (CART) decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), back propagation(BP) neural network, logistic regression, and random forest-were used to construct the risk prediction model for carotid artery plaques. ResultsThe most common TCM syndrome elements in the high-risk population of stroke was Qi deficiency. The scores of Qi deficiency, Yin deficiency, and Yang deficiency in the population with carotid artery plaques were higher than those without carotid artery plaques (P<0.05). The CART decision tree, SVM, logistic regression, BP neural network, and random forest models showed the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of 0.71, 0.75, 0.76, 0.76, and 0.75, the accuracy rates of 68.94%, 69.27%, 69.44%, 70.10%, and 69.60%, the precision rates of 68.56%, 68.53%, 68.75%, 69.74%, and 69.42%, the recall rates of 68.91%, 67.93%, 67.92%, 68.10%, and 67.31%, and the F1 values of 0.69, 0.68, 0.68, 0.68, and 0.68, respectively. ConclusionAmong the high-risk population of stroke, the most frequently distributed TCM syndrome element is Qi deficiency, with the rest mainly being fire heat, Yin deficiency, Yang deficiency, phlegm dampness, blood stasis, and Qi stagnation. Deficiency syndrome may be a major factor leading to carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. The BP neural network model demonstrates better performance in predicting the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke. People with carotid artery plaques are more likely to present with symptoms such as a heavy head, dizziness, headache, and thready pulse. The primary community benefits more widely when the BP neural network model is adopted to predict the risk of carotid artery plaques in the high-risk population of stroke over 40 years old.
4.Effect of Duhuo Jisheng Decoction on knee osteoarthritis model rabbits through regulation of cell pyroptosis mediated by PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway.
Lin-Qin HE ; Peng-Fei LI ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qi-Peng CHEN ; Zong-Han TANG ; Yu-Xin SONG ; Han-Bing SONG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(1):187-197
This study aimed to investigate the underlying mechanisms of Duhuo Jisheng Decoction(DJD) in the prevention and treatment of knee osteoarthritis(KOA). Forty SPF New Zealand rabbits were randomly divided using SPSS 26.0 software into five groups: blank group, model group, low-dose DJD group, high-dose DJD group, and high-dose DJD+phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt)/mammalian target of rapamycin(mTOR) signaling pathway activator group(high-dose DJD+740Y-P group), with eight rabbits in each group. Except for the blank group, the KOA model was established in the other groups using papain injection into the knee joint cavity combined with forced flexion of the knee joint. The day after modeling, the blank group and model group were given normal saline at 10 mL·kg~(-1) by gavage, the low-dose DJD group received DJD at 8.8 g·kg~(-1) by gavage, the high-dose DJD group received DJD at 35.2 g·kg~(-1) by gavage, and the high-dose DJD+740Y-P group received DJD at 35.2 g·kg~(-1) by gavage along with 740Y-P at 0.15 μmoL·kg~(-1) injected via the auricular vein. All groups received treatment continuously for four weeks. After modeling and intervention, behavioral observations were performed for all groups, and after the intervention, imaging assessments of the knee joints were conducted. Cartilage from the knee joints was collected, and gross morphological changes were observed. Pathological changes in cartilage tissue were examined using hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining. The results of these observations were quantitatively evaluated using the Lequesne MG score, Kellgren-Lawrence(K-L) grading, Pelletier score, and Mankin score. ELISA was used to measure the levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-18(IL-18), and matrix metalloproteinase 13(MMP13) in cartilage tissue. Real-time RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression levels of PI3K, Akt, mTOR, Nod-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3), cysteine protease 1(caspase-1), and gasdermin D(GSDMD) in cartilage tissue. Western blot was employed to measure the protein expression levels of PI3K, Akt, mTOR, NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. The results showed that compared with the blank group, the model group exhibited significant knee joint degeneration, increased Lequesne MG score, K-L grading, Pelletier score, and Mankin score, elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and MMP13 in cartilage tissue, activation of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR phosphorylation along with increased mRNA expression levels, and elevated protein and mRNA expression levels of NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. Compared with the model group, these indicators were reversed in both the low-dose and high-dose DJD groups, with the high-dose group showing greater decline degree than the low-dose DJD group. However, compared with the high-dose DJD group, the improvements in knee joint degeneration were less pronounced in the high-dose DJD+740Y-P group, with increased Lequesne MG score, K-L grading, Pelletier score, Mankin score, elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and MMP13, activation of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR phosphorylation along with increased mRNA expression, and increased protein and mRNA expression levels of NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. In conclusion, DJD is effective and safe in the treatment of KOA, and its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway-mediated pyroptosis in cartilage tissue, thereby improving knee joint bone structure, reducing the inflammatory response, and preventing cartilage matrix degradation.
Animals
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Rabbits
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TOR Serine-Threonine Kinases/genetics*
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Osteoarthritis, Knee/genetics*
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/genetics*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Male
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Disease Models, Animal
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Pyroptosis/drug effects*
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Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/genetics*
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Humans
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Female
5.Intervention mechanism of Yiqi Fumai Formula in mice with experimental heart failure based on "heart-gut axis".
Zi-Xuan ZHANG ; Yu-Zhuo WU ; Ke-Dian CHEN ; Jian-Qin WANG ; Yang SUN ; Yin JIANG ; Yi-Xuan LIN ; He-Rong CUI ; Hong-Cai SHANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(12):3399-3412
This paper aimed to investigate the therapeutic effect and mechanism of action of the Yiqi Fumai Formula(YQFM), a kind of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM), on mice with experimental heart failure based on the "heart-gut axis" theory. Based on the network pharmacology integrated with the group collaboration algorithm, the active ingredients were screened, a "component-target-disease" network was constructed, and the potential pathways regulated by the formula were predicted and analyzed. Next, the model of experimental heart failure was established by intraperitoneal injection of adriamycin at a single high dose(15 mg·kg~(-1)) in BALB/c mice. After intraperitoneal injection of YQFM(lyophilized) at 7.90, 15.80, and 31.55 mg·d~(-1) for 7 d, the protective effects of the formula on cardiac function were evaluated using indicators such as ultrasonic electrocardiography and myocardial injury markers. Combined with inflammatory factors in the cardiac and colorectal tissue, as well as targeted assays, the relevant indicators of potential pathways were verified. Meanwhile, 16S rDNA sequencing was performed on mouse fecal samples using the Illumina platform to detect changes in gut flora and analyze differential metabolic pathways. The results show that the administration of injectable YQFM(lyophilized) for 7 d significantly increased the left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter, fractional shortening, and ejection fraction of cardiac tissue of mice with experimental heart failure(P<0.05). Moreover, markers of myocardial injury were significantly decreased(P<0.05), indicating improved cardiac function, along with significantly suppressed inflammatory responses in cardiac and intestinal tissue(P<0.05). Additionally, the species of causative organisms was decreased, and the homeostasis of gut flora was improved, involving a modulatory effect on PI3K-Akt signaling pathway-related inflammation in cardiac and colorectal tissue. In conclusion, YQFM can affect the "heart-gut axis" immunity through the homeostasis of the gut flora, thereby exerting a therapeutic effect on heart failure. This finding provides a reference for the combination of TCM and western medicine to prevent and treat heart failure based on the "heart-gut axis" theory.
Animals
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Heart Failure/microbiology*
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Mice
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Mice, Inbred BALB C
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Male
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Disease Models, Animal
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Gastrointestinal Microbiome/drug effects*
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Heart/physiopathology*
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Humans
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
6.Berg Balance Scale score is a valuable predictor of all-cause mortality among acute decompensated heart failure patients.
Yu-Xuan FAN ; Jing-Jing CHENG ; Zhi-Qing FAN ; Jing-Jin LIU ; Wen-Juan XIU ; Meng-Yi ZHAN ; Lin LUO ; Guang-He LI ; Le-Min WANG ; Yu-Qin SHEN
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(6):555-562
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate possible associations between physical function assessment scales, such as Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and Berg Balance Scale (BBS), with all-cause mortality in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients.
METHODS:
A total of 108 ADHF patients were analyzed from October 2020 to October 2022, and followed up to May 2023. The association between baseline clinical characteristics and all-cause mortality was analyzed by univariate Cox regression analysis, while for SPPB and BBS, univariate Cox regression analysis was followed by receiver operating characteristic curves, in which the area under the curve represented their predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality. Incremental predictive values for both physical function assessments were measured by calculating net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement scores. Optimal cut-off value for BBS was then identified using restricted cubic spline plots, and survival differences below and above that cut-off were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the log-rank test. The clinical utility of BBS was measured using decision curve analysis.
RESULTS:
For baseline characteristics, age, female, blood urea nitrogen, as well as statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, or angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, were predictive for all-cause mortality for ADHF patients. With respect to SPPB and BBS, higher scores were associated with lower all-cause mortality rates for both assessments; similar area under the curves were measured for both (0.774 for SPPB and 0.776 for BBS). Furthermore, BBS ≤ 36.5 was associated with significantly higher mortality, which was still applicable even adjusting for confounding factors; BBS was also found to have great clinical utility under decision curve analysis.
CONCLUSIONS
BBS or SPPB could be used as tools to assess physical function in ageing ADHF patients, as well as prognosticate on all-cause mortality. Moreover, prioritizing the improvement of balance capabilities of ADHF patients in cardiac rehabilitation regimens could aid in lowering mortality risk.
7.Impact of different CT reconstruction kernel on quantitative analysis of small pulmonary vessels in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and high-risk patients
He CHEN ; Shuzhu QIN ; Yanyan XU ; Xiaoxia REN ; Sheng XIE ; Yinghao XU ; Yu ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2025;59(8):894-899
Objective:To investigate the impact of different CT reconstruction kernels on the quantitative analysis of small pulmonary vessels in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and high-risk patients.Methods:This study was a cross-sectional study. Clinical and imaging data of 73 COPD and high-risk patients visiting the China-Japan Friendship Hospital between March and April 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent high-resolution CT of the chest and pulmonary function tests, with the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity (FEV 1/FVC) obtained. The raw CT data were reconstructed using different kernels: the FC86 group used the adaptive iterative dose reduction(AIDR) 3D standard lung sharp reconstruction algorithm, the FC18 group used the AIDR 3D standard Body standard reconstruction algorithm, the advanced intelligent clear-IQ engine(AiCE) Lung group used the AiCE deep learning reconstruction algorithm for lung, and the AiCE Body group used the AiCE deep learning reconstruction algorithm for body. Image signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and image noise were calculated. The pulmonary vessel segmentation & Measurement software was used to segment and extract pulmonary arteries and veins of four groups in thin-slice whole-lung CT imaging, obtaining the ratio of small pulmonary arteries (%V artery<5) and the ratio of small pulmonary veins (%V vein<5). The One-way repeated measures ANOVA or Friedman test was used to compare the differences in SNR, CNR, image noise, %V artery<5, and %V vein<5 among the four groups, followed by Bonferroni post hoc or Bonferroni-Dunn test with P-value correction to analysis differences between subgroups. The correlations between %V artery<5 and FEV 1/FVC, as well as between %V vein<5 and FEV 1/FVC were analyzed using Spearman rank correlation analysis in all four groups. Results:The overall differences in image noise, SNR, and CNR in the AiCE Lung, AiCE Body, FC18, and FC86 groups were statistically significant ( P<0.001). Except for the difference in CNR values between the AiCE Lung group and the FC18 group, which was not statistically significant ( P=0.192), all differences were statistically significant ( P<0.016 7). The overall differences in %V artery<5 values and %V vein<5 values in the AiCE Lung, AiCE Body, FC18, and FC86 groups were statistically significant ( P<0.001). The %V artery<5 and %V vein<5 values in the FC18 group were lower than those in the AiCE Lung, AiCE Body, and FC86 groups ( P<0.016 7), and the rest of the differences were not statistically significant ( P>0.016 7). %V artery<5 and %V vein<5 were positively correlated with FEV 1/FVC in all 4 groups ( P<0.05), with the highest correlation coefficient between %V vein<5 and FEV 1/FVC in the AiCE Body group ( r=0.501, P=0.001). Conclusions:DLR-AiCE-based kernel reconstruction optimizes image quality and significantly affects the results of quantitative parameters of small pulmonary vessels. The reconstruction kernel prioritized for quantitative analysis of small vessels within the lungs in COPD based on the CT scanner in this study is AiCE Body.
8.Chemical constituents from the stems and barks of Maytenus variabilis
Ting HE ; Bing-qian LIU ; Jian-feng CHEN ; Xiao-qin YU ; Cheng-xiong LIU ; Kun ZOU ; Fan CHENG
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(5):1539-1547
AIM To study the chemical constituents from the stems and barks of Maytenus variabilis(Hemsl.)C.Y.Cheng.METHODS The 95%ethanol extract from the stems and barks of M.variabilis was isolated and purified by silica gel,Sephadex LH-20 and semi preparative HPLC,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.RESULTS Twenty-three compounds were isolated and identified as β-amyrin(1),3β-acetoxyolean-12-en-11-one(2),ursa-12-ene-11-one-3-ol octocosate(3),friedelin(4),canophyllol(5),pinoresinol(6),medioresinol(7),isolariciresinol(8),dihydrodehydrodiconiferyl alcohol(9),vanillic acid(10),7R,8S-5-methoxydihydrodehydroconiferyl alcohol(11),β-hydroxypropiovanillone(12),triptregeline B(13),triptregeline E(14),(+)-evofolin B(15),2,5-dimethoxybenzoquinone(16),olean-12-ene-3,11-dione(17),β-sitosterol(18),(-)-(7R,7'R,7"S,8S,8'S,8"S)-4',4"-dihydroxy-3,3',3",5-tetramethoxy-7,9',7',9-diepoxy-4,8"-oxy-8,8'-sesquineolignan-7",9"-diol(19),phyllostadimer B(20),rayalinol(21),lyoniresinol(22),dihydrobuddlenol B(23).CONCLUSION Compounds 3,9-11,13-14,16,19-21,23 are isolated from genus Maytenus for the first time,and compounds 2,4-5,7-8,12,15,17,22 are first found from this plant.
9.Mechanisms of aryl hydrocarbon receptor in liver diseases
Jing QIN ; Zhilong HE ; Yu LIU ; Kai HU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(9):1943-1948
Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) plays an important role in the development and progression of liver diseases. This article elaborates on the structure of AhR and its function in liver development and provides a detailed analysis of its molecular mechanisms in diseases such as metabolic associated fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, viral hepatitis, drug-induced liver injury, autoimmune hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and liver cancer. This article also reviews the research advances in AhR agonists and antagonists and analyzes their potential application prospects in disease treatment. At the same time, it points out that although AhR is a promising therapeutic target, there are still various challenges in its clinical application. It is suggested that future research should focus on developing AhR modulators with high specificity and low toxicity and further explore its mechanism of action in different liver diseases.
10.Development and validation of predictive model for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction.
Beiyuan ZHANG ; Chenzhe HE ; Zimeng QIN ; Ming CHEN ; Wenkui YU ; Ting SU
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(9):802-808
OBJECTIVE:
To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting 30-day mortality among elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD), to identify high-risk patients and improve prognosis.
METHODS:
A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database for elderly patients with SALD who were first admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019, including basic characteristics, severity scores, underlying diseases, infection foci, 24-hour vital signs, initial laboratory indicators, 24-hour complications, and prognosis related indicators. Patients were randomly assigned to training group and validation group in a ratio of 7 : 3. The training group used the LASSO regression analysis, as well as multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model, and validate the model using the validation cohort.
RESULTS:
A total of 630 elderly patients with SLAD were included in the study, including 441 in the training group and 189 in the validation group. Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) for training group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.034-1.086], 24-hour pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2; OR = 0.876, 95%CI was 0.797-0.962), initial mean corpuscular volume (MCV; OR = 1.043, 95%CI was 1.009-1.077), initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW; OR = 1.237, 95%CI was 1.123-1.362), initial blood glucose (OR = 1.008, 95%CI was 1.004-1.013), and initial aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model was constructed, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the training group was 0.757 (95%CI was 0.712-0.803), with a sensitivity of 65.05% and a specificity of 74.90%; the AUC of the model in the validation group was 0.712 (95%CI was 0.631-0.792), with a sensitivity of 58.67% and a specificity of 81.58%. The calibration curves of the training and validation groups show that both the fitted curves were close to the standard curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test: the training group (χ 2 = 6.729, P = 0.566), the validation group (χ 2 = 13.889, P = 0.085), indicating that the model can fit the observed data well. The DCA curve shows that when the threshold probability of the training group was 16% to 94% and the threshold probability of the validation group was 27% to 99%, the net benefit of the model was good.
CONCLUSIONS
OASIS, 24-hour SpO2, initial MCV, initial RDW, initial blood glucose and initial AST are independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with SALD. The nomogram based on these six variables demonstrates good predictive performance.
Humans
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Sepsis/complications*
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Retrospective Studies
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Nomograms
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Aged
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Prognosis
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Risk Factors
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Liver Diseases/mortality*
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Intensive Care Units
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ROC Curve
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Male
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Female
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Logistic Models

Result Analysis
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