Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

OBJECTIVE To observe the causal association between colorectal cancer and sepsis by means of bidirec-tional two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR).METHODS The Genome Wide Association Study(GWAS)datasets for colorectal cancer and sepsis were retrieved from the GWAS databases between its establishment and Feb.1,2024.MR was carried out for the colorectal cancer and sepsis interacting as exposure and outcome factors.The single nucleotide polymorhpism(SNPs)that were significantly associated with the exposure factors were screened out by setting P as less than 5.0× 10-8,r2 less than 0.001,the genetic distance 10,000 kb.The SNPs that were remarkably associated with the exposure factors were extracted from the GWAS datasets of the outcome variables,the instrumental variable were finally obtained,the inverse variance weighting(IVW)was taken as the main approach for the causal inference.The level pleiotropy was tested by using MR Egger method and MR-PRESSO,the heterogeneity was tested by IVW method and MR-Egger method,the sensitivity was analyzed by leave-one-out method,and the robustness of the result was tested.RESULTS A total of 30 SNPs were screed out by setting the colorectal cancer as exposure factor and the sepsis as outcome variable(F＞10);there was causal as-sociation between the colorectal cancer and the sepsis(OR=28.955,95％CI:1.215 to 690.052,P=0.037).Totally 14 SNPs were screened out by setting the sepsis as exposure factor and the colorectal cancer as treatment variable(F＞10),and there was no causal association between the colorectal cancer and the sepsis(OR=0.999,95％CI:0.997 to 1.002,P=0.674).There was no level pleiotropy in the instrumental variables during the two times of MR analysis;there was no heterogeneity in the instrumental variables,and the result of the MR analysis was robust.CONCLUSION There is causal association between the colorectal cancer and the increases of risk of sepsis.But there is no causal association between the sepsis and the increase of risk of colorectal cancer.

Objective To summarize the changing prevalence of carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales based on the data of CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program from 2015 to 2021 for improving antimicrobial treatment in clinical practice.Methods Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed using a commercial automated susceptibility testing system according to the unified CHINET protocol.The results were interpreted according to the breakpoints of the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)M100 31st ed in 2021.Results Over the seven-year period(2015-2021),the overall prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales(CRE)was 9.43％(62 342/661 235).The prevalence of CRE strains in Klebsiella pneumoniae,Citrobacter freundii,and Enterobacter cloacae was 22.38％,9.73％,and 8.47％,respectively.The prevalence of CRE strains in Escherichia coli was 1.99％.A few CRE strains were also identified in Salmonella and Shigella.The CRE strains were mainly isolated from respiratory specimens(44.23±2.80)％,followed by blood(20.88±3.40)％and urine(18.40±3.45)％.Intensive care units(ICUs)were the major source of the CRE strains(27.43±5.20)％.CRE strains were resistant to all the β-lactam antibiotics tested and most non-β-lactam antimicrobial agents.The CRE strains were relatively susceptible to tigecycline and polymyxins with low resistance rates.Conclusions The prevalence of CRE strains was increasing from 2015 to 2021.CRE strains were highly resistant to most of the antibacterial drugs used in clinical practice.Clinicians should prescribe antimicrobial agents rationally.Hospitals should strengthen antibiotic stewardship in key clinical settings such as ICUs,and take effective infection control measures to curb CRE outbreak and epidemic in hospitals.

Objective To characterize the changing species distribution and antibiotic resistance profiles of respiratory isolates in hospitals participating in the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program from 2015 to 2021.Methods Commercial automated antimicrobial susceptibility testing systems and disk diffusion method were used to test the susceptibility of respiratory bacterial isolates to antimicrobial agents following the standardized technical protocol established by the CHINET program.Results A total of 589 746 respiratory isolates were collected from 2015 to 2021.Overall,82.6％of the isolates were Gram-negative bacteria and 17.4％were Gram-positive bacteria.The bacterial isolates from outpatients and inpatients accounted for(6.0±0.9)％and(94.0±0.1)％,respectively.The top microorganisms were Klebsiella spp.,Acinetobacter spp.,Pseudomonas aeruginosa,Staphylococcus aureus,Haemophilus spp.,Stenotrophomonas maltophilia,Escherichia coli,and Streptococcus pneumoniae.Each microorganism was isolated from significantly more males than from females(P＜0.05).The overall prevalence of methicillin-resistant S.aureus(MRSA)was 39.9％.The prevalence of penicillin-resistant S.pneumoniae was 1.4％.The prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase(ESBL)-producing E.coli and K.pneumoniae was 67.8％and 41.3％,respectively.The overall prevalence of carbapenem-resistant E.coli,K.pneumoniae,Enterobacter cloacae,Pseudomonas aeruginosa,and Acinetobacter baumannii was 3.7％,20.8％,9.4％,29.8％,and 73.3％,respectively.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 96.1％in Moraxella catarrhalis and 60.0％in Haemophilus influenzae.The H.influenzae isolates from children(＜18 years)showed significantly higher resistance rates to β-lactam antibiotics than the isolates from adults(P＜0.05).Conclusions Gram-negative bacteria are still predominant in respiratory isolates associated with serious antibiotic resistance.Antimicrobial resistance surveillance should be strengthened in clinical practice to support accurate etiological diagnosis and appropriate antimicrobial therapy based on antimicrobial susceptibility testing results.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of common pathogens isolated from cerebrospinal fluid(CSF)in CHINET program from 2015 to 2021.Methods The bacterial strains isolated from CSF were identified in accordance with clinical microbiology practice standards.Antimicrobial susceptibility test was conducted using Kirby-Bauer method and automated systems per the unified CHINET protocol.Results A total of 14 014 bacterial strains were isolated from CSF samples from 2015 to 2021,including the strains isolated from inpatients(95.3％)and from outpatient and emergency care patients(4.7％).Overall,19.6％of the isolates were from children and 80.4％were from adults.Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria accounted for 68.0％and 32.0％,respectively.Coagulase negative Staphylococcus accounted for 73.0％of the total Gram-positive bacterial isolates.The prevalence of MRSA was 38.2％in children and 45.6％in adults.The prevalence of MRCNS was 67.6％in adults and 69.5％in children.A small number of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium(2.2％)and linezolid-resistant Enterococcus faecalis(3.1％)were isolated from adult patients.The resistance rates of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae to ceftriaxone were 52.2％and 76.4％in children,70.5％and 63.5％in adults.The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant E.coli and K.pneumoniae(CRKP)was 1.3％and 47.7％in children,6.4％and 47.9％in adults.The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii(CRAB)and Pseudomonas aeruginosa(CRPA)was 74.0％and 37.1％in children,81.7％and 39.9％in adults.Conclusions The data derived from antimicrobial resistance surveillance are crucial for clinicians to make evidence-based decisions regarding antibiotic therapy.Attention should be paid to the Gram-negative bacteria,especially CRKP and CRAB in central nervous system(CNS)infections.Ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance is helpful for optimizing antibiotic use in CNS infections.

Objective To investigate the antimicrobial resistance of clinical isolates from elderly patients(≥65 years)in major medical institutions across China.Methods Bacterial strains were isolated from elderly patients in 52 hospitals participating in the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program during the period from 2015 to 2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility test was carried out by disk diffusion method and automated systems according to the same CHINET protocol.The data were interpreted in accordance with the breakpoints recommended by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)in 2021.Results A total of 514 715 nonduplicate clinical isolates were collected from elderly patients in 52 hospitals from January 1,2015 to December 31,2021.The number of isolates accounted for 34.3％of the total number of clinical isolates from all patients.Overall,21.8％of the 514 715 strains were gram-positive bacteria,and 78.2％were gram-negative bacteria.Majority(90.9％)of the strains were isolated from inpatients.About 42.9％of the strains were isolated from respiratory specimens,and 22.9％were isolated from urine.More than half(60.7％)of the strains were isolated from male patients,and 39.3％isolated from females.About 51.1％of the strains were isolated from patients aged 65-＜75 years.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant strains(MRSA)was 38.8％in 32 190 strains of Staphylococcus aureus.No vancomycin-or linezolid-resistant strains were found.The resistance rate of E.faecalis to most antibiotics was significantly lower than that of Enterococcus faecium,but a few vancomycin-resistant strains(0.2％,1.5％)and linezolid-resistant strains(3.4％,0.3％)were found in E.faecalis and E.faecium.The prevalence of penicillin-susceptible S.pneumoniae(PSSP),penicillin-intermediate S.pneumoniae(PISP),and penicillin-resistant S.pneumoniae(PRSP)was 94.3％,4.0％,and 1.7％in nonmeningitis S.pneumoniae isolates.The resistance rates of Klebsiella spp.(Klebsiella pneumoniae 93.2％)to imipenem and meropenem were 20.9％and 22.3％,respectively.Other Enterobacterales species were highly sensitive to carbapenem antibiotics.Only 1.7％-7.8％of other Enterobacterales strains were resistant to carbapenems.The resistance rates of Acinetobacter spp.(Acinetobacter baumannii 90.6％)to imipenem and meropenem were 68.4％and 70.6％respectively,while 28.5％and 24.3％of P.aeruginosa strains were resistant to imipenem and meropenem,respectively.Conclusions The number of clinical isolates from elderly patients is increasing year by year,especially in the 65-＜75 age group.Respiratory tract isolates were more prevalent in male elderly patients,and urinary tract isolates were more prevalent in female elderly patients.Klebsiella isolates were increasingly resistant to multiple antimicrobial agents,especially carbapenems.Antimicrobial resistance surveillance is helpful for accurate empirical antimicrobial therapy in elderly patients.

Objective:To investigate the risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease and establish and validate a prediction model.Methods:We selected 372 patients with Parkinson's disease at Sichuan Nanchong Mental Health Centre from January 2022 to Septem-ber 2023.The patients were divided in a 7:3 ratio into model group(260 cases)and validation group(112 cases).According to previ-ous literature and suspected factors found in clinical practice,we collected general information(sex,age,etc.)and disease-related factors(the duration of Parkinson's disease,the type of medications taken,etc.)that may be associated with falls in patients with Parkinson's disease.In the model group,between patients with and those without falls within 1 year as reported by the patients or their family members,potential predictors for falls were determined through comparison of general information and disease-related factors,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression,and multivariable logistic regression.Based on the significant factors,a nomogram model was established and validated.Results:In the model group,81(31.15%)of the 260 patients experienced falls.According to the LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression results,alcohol consumption,the type of medications,the score of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part Ⅲ(UPDRS-Ⅲ),the Berg Balance Scale score,the presence of arthritis,and the presence of osteoporosis were independent factors influenc-ing falls in patients with Parkinson's disease.The area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC)for pre-dicting the risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease was 0.896(95%CI=0.856-0.935)in the model group and 0.883(95%CI=0.840-0.926)in the validation group.The calibration curve analysis results showed that the prediction curves of the model and valida-tion groups closely fitted the standard curves.The decision curve analysis results indicated that when the probability threshold for pre-dicting the fall risk in Parkinson's disease using the nomogram was 0.10-0.90,the net benefit rate of the patients was greater than 0.Conclusion:The risk of falls in patients with Parkinson's disease are mainly influenced by factors such as alcohol consumption and the type of medications.The nomogram model established in this study can be used to predict the fall risk in patients with Parkinson's disease.

Objective To investigate the effects of hypoxia on the transcriptional phenotype and ultrastructure of tumor-associated macrophages(TAMs)in glioma.Methods CD14+monocytes were isolated from healthy human peripheral blood samples collected from the Blood Bank of the First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University,and the cells were induced to differentiate into TAMs through co-culture with glioma cell-conditioned medium.Hypoxic TAM models were established using varying concentrations of cobalt chloride hexahydrate(CoCl2,50～400 μmol/L)or hypoxic conditions(1%,5%,10%O2)for 48 h,while normoxic TAM models(21%O2)served as controls.RT-qPCR and transcriptome sequencing were employed to analyze transcriptional changes in TAMs under normoxic and hypoxic conditions.Gene set enrichment analysis(GSEA)was applied to compare the differences in angiogenesis,glycolysis and other hypoxia-responsive pathways between the 2 conditions.Transmission electron microscopy(TEM)or immunofluorescence staining was conducted to assess the ultrastructural alterations in cytoskeleton,endoplasmic reticulum(ER),and mitochondria in normoxic and hypoxic TAMs(1%O2).Results Hypoxic TAMs exhibited up-regulated transcription of hypoxia-responsive markers(oxygen transport,glycolysis,pro-angiogenesis),with the effects correlating with hypoxia severity(P<0.05).GSEA revealed significant up-regulation of hypoxia,angiogenesis regulation,glycolysis and gluconeogenesis,and starvation stress pathways,alongside down-regulation of innate immunity,macrophage activation,cytoskeleton,and protein maturation pathways in hypoxic TAMs(P<0.05).TEM and immunofluorescence staining demonstrated obvious ultrastructure changes,including disrupted cytoskeletal organization,shortened rough ER with reduced ribosomes,mitochondrial swelling with cristae damage,and diminished ER-mitochondria contacts in hypoxic TAMs.Conclusion CoCl2 and hypoxia induce a hypoxic transcriptional phenotype in TAMs,which may potentially associated with ultrastructural remodeling of the cytoskeleton,ER,and mitochondria.

Turning to critical illness is a common stage of various diseases and injuries before death. Patients usually have complex health conditions, while the treatment process involves a wide range of content, along with high requirements for doctor′s professionalism and multi-specialty teamwork, as well as a great demand for time-sensitive treatments. However, this is not matched with critical care professionals and the current state of medical care in China. Telemedicine, which shortens the distance of medical professionals and the gap of disease diagnosis and treatments in various regions through electronic information, can effectively solve the current problem. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a standardized, high-quality visualization telemedicine round system .Therefore, experts have been organized to search domestic and foreign literature on telemedicine round for critically ill patients and to form this consensus based on clinical experiences so as to further improve the level of critical care treatments in regions.

Objective:To investigate the value of carotid，radial and podalic artery intima thickness（CIT，RIT，PIT）combined with monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio（MHR）in predicting the severity of coronary artery stenosis in patients with premature coronary artery disease（PCAD）.Methods:A total of 80 patients with PCAD who received treatment in Henan Provincial People's Hospital from October 2023 to May 2024 were prospectively recruited，and they were divided into high group（≥41 score，40 cases）and low group（＜41 score，40 cases）according to the median dichotomy of Gensini score. Thirty-four gender，age and body mass index（BMI）-matched healthy volunteers were selected as the control group. The CIT，RIT，PIT，media and intima media thickness of carotid，radial artery and podalic artery（CMT，RMT，PMT，CIMT，RIMT，PIMT）were measured using 24 MHz ultra-high frequency ultrasound probe，and the ratio of intima to media thickness（CIT/CMT，RIT/RMT，PIT/PMT）was calculated. The differences of general clinical data，laboratory indexes and ultrasonic parameters among the three groups were compared. Risk factors affecting the severity of coronary stenosis in PCAD patients were explored by binary logistic regression. Subject working characteristic curves were plotted，area under the curve（AUC）was calculated，and the values of each ultrasound parameter and MHR in the independent and combined diagnosis of the severity of coronary artery stenosis in PCAD patients were evaluated.Results:①There were no statistically significant differences in age，gender，BMI，total cholesterol，CMT，RMT and PMT among the three groups（all P＞0.05）. There were no statistically significant differences in the comparison of smoking，hypertension，diabetes mellitus，systolic blood pressure，diastolic blood pressure，low-density lipoprotein cholesterol，total cholesterol，and triglycerides between the two subgroups of the PCAD（all P>0.05）. ②CIT，CIMT，CIT/CMT，RIT，RIMT，RIT/RMT，PIT，PIMT，PIT/PMT were thickened in the high group compared with the low group，and MHR was higher than in the low group（all P<0.05），the differences in the above parameters remained statistically significant when comparing the PCAD group with the control group（all P<0.05）. ③The AUC values for MHR，CIT，RIT and PIT alone to predict the severity of coronary stenosis in patients with PCAD were 0.781，0.767，0.780 and 0.722，respectively. The combined diagnostic efficiency of the four parameters was better than the independent diagnostic efficiency（AUC = 0.885）. Conclusions:CIT，RIT and PIT are thicker in PCAD patients with high Gensini score and the combination of artery intima thickness and MHR has good efficacy in predicting the severity of coronary artery stenosis in PCAD patients.