1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Role of amino acid metabolism in autoimmune hepatitis and related therapeutic targets
Peipei GUO ; Yang XU ; Jiaqi SHI ; Yang WU ; Lixia LU ; Bin LI ; Xiaohui YU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(3):547-551
Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear, but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system, while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH, in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.
3.Extracellular vesicles: Roles in oocytes and emerging therapeutic opportunities.
Zhongyu ZHAO ; Yinrui SUN ; Renhao GUO ; Junzhi LIANG ; Wanlin DAI ; Yutao JIANG ; Yafan YU ; Yuexin YU ; Lixia HE ; Da LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(9):1050-1060
The production of high-quality oocytes requires precisely orchestrated intercellular communication. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are cell-derived nanoparticles that play a vital role in the transfer of bioactive molecules, which has gained much attention in the field of diagnosis and treatment. Over the past ten years, the participation of EVs in the reproductive processes of oocytes has been broadly studied and has shown great potential for elucidating the intricacies of female reproductive health. This review provides an extensive discussion of the influence of EVs on oocytes, emphasizing their involvement in normal physiology and altered cargo under pathological conditions. In addition, the positive impact of therapeutic EVs on oocyte quality and their role in alleviating ovarian pathological conditions are summarized.
Humans
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Extracellular Vesicles/physiology*
;
Oocytes/cytology*
;
Female
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Animals
;
Cell Communication/physiology*
4.Advances of low-intensity pulsed ultrasound for treatment of musculoskeletal disorders in the past decade.
Liping FU ; Lixia YUAN ; Jie WANG ; Xuelan CHEN ; Guizhi KE ; Yu HUANG ; Xinyi YANG ; Gang LIU
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(3):661-668
Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are characterized by extensive pathological involvement and high prevalence and cause a significant disease burden. Long-term drug administration often causes by adverse effects with poor therapeutic efficacy. Low-intensity pulsed ultrasound (LIPUS), as a specialized therapeutic modality, delivers acoustic energy at a low intensity in a pulsed wave mode, thus ensuring stable energy transmission to the target tissues while minimizing thermal effects. This non-invasive approach has demonstrated significant potential for MSD treatment by delivering effective physical stimulations. Extensive animal and clinical studies have demonstrated the efficacy of LIPUS for accelerating the healing process of fresh fractures and nonunions, promoting soft tissue regeneration and suppressing inflammatory responses. Emerging evidence suggests promising applications of LIPUS in skeletal muscle injury treatment and promoting tissue regeneration and repair. This review outlines the recent advancements and mechanistic studies of LIPUS for treatment of common MSDs including fractures, nonunions, muscle injuries, and osteoarthritis, addressing also the technical parameters of commercially available LIPUS devices, current therapeutic approaches, the existing challenges, and future research directions.
Humans
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Ultrasonic Therapy/methods*
;
Musculoskeletal Diseases/therapy*
;
Ultrasonic Waves
;
Osteoarthritis/therapy*
;
Muscle, Skeletal/injuries*
5.Development and application on a full process disease diagnosis and treatment assistance system based on generative artificial intelligence.
Wanjie YANG ; Hao FU ; Xiangfei MENG ; Changsong LI ; Ce YU ; Xinting ZHAO ; Weifeng LI ; Wei ZHAO ; Qi WU ; Zheng CHEN ; Chao CUI ; Song GAO ; Zhen WAN ; Jing HAN ; Weikang ZHAO ; Dong HAN ; Zhongzhuo JIANG ; Weirong XING ; Mou YANG ; Xuan MIAO ; Haibai SUN ; Zhiheng XING ; Junquan ZHANG ; Lixia SHI ; Li ZHANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(5):477-483
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), especially generative AI (GenAI), has already brought, and will continue to bring, revolutionary changes to our daily production and life, as well as create new opportunities and challenges for diagnostic and therapeutic practices in the medical field. Haihe Hospital of Tianjin University collaborates with the National Supercomputer Center in Tianjin, Tianjin University, and other institutions to carry out research in areas such as smart healthcare, smart services, and smart management. We have conducted research and development of a full-process disease diagnosis and treatment assistance system based on GenAI in the field of smart healthcare. The development of this project is of great significance. The first goal is to upgrade and transform the hospital's information center, organically integrate it with existing information systems, and provide the necessary computing power storage support for intelligent services within the hospital. We have implemented the localized deployment of three models: Tianhe "Tianyuan", WiNGPT, and DeepSeek. The second is to create a digital avatar of the chief physician/chief physician's voice and image by integrating multimodal intelligent interaction technology. With generative intelligence as the core, this solution provides patients with a visual medical interaction solution. The third is to achieve deep adaptation between generative intelligence and the entire process of patient medical treatment. In this project, we have developed assistant tools such as intelligent inquiry, intelligent diagnosis and recognition, intelligent treatment plan generation, and intelligent assisted medical record generation to improve the safety, quality, and efficiency of the diagnosis and treatment process. This study introduces the content of a full-process disease diagnosis and treatment assistance system, aiming to provide references and insights for the digital transformation of the healthcare industry.
Artificial Intelligence
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Humans
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Delivery of Health Care
;
Generative Artificial Intelligence
6.Clinical predictive value of sphinor kinase 1, D-lactic acid and intestinal fatty acid binding protein for septic gastrointestinal injury.
Donghui NING ; Yu GE ; Fan YANG ; Lixia GENG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(8):715-720
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the predictive value of sphinor kinase 1 (sphk1), D-lactic acid, and intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) for gastrointestinal injury in patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
A prospective observational study was conducted. Sixty-eight patients with sepsis and gastrointestinal dysfunction admitted to the department of critical care medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Baotou Medical College Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology from May 2024 to March 2025 were enrolled (sepsis group), and they were divided into acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) I-IV groups according to the definition and grading criteria of AGI proposed by the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine in 2012. Twenty non-sepsis patients without AGI admitted to the intensive care unit during the same period were enrolled as the control group (non-sepsis group). Within 30 minutes of patient enrollment, plasma sphk1, D-lactic acid, and I-FABP levels were determined by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). General data such as gender, age were recorded, and levels of procalcitonin (PCT), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactic acid (Lac), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHEII), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) were measured. Spearman method was used to analyze the correlation between sphk1, I-FABP, D-lactic acid and other indicators. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the predictive value of sphk1, D-lactic acid, I-FABP, APACHEII score, and SOFA score for gastrointestinal injury in patients with sepsis.
RESULTS:
Among the 68 sepsis patients, 13 were classified as AGI grade I, 16 as AGI grade II, 23 as AGI grade III, and 16 had AGI grade IV. There were no statistically significant differences in gender, age, and abdominal infection rate among the groups. The SOFA score and APACHEII score of the sepsis group were significantly higher than those of the non-sepsis group; and the APACHEII score of the AGI IV group was significantly higher than that of the AGI I and AGI II groups. The levels of sphk1, D-lactic acid, I-FABP, PCT, Lac and hs-CRP in the sepsis group were significantly higher than those in the non-sepsis group, and each indicator gradually increased with the increase of AGI grade. Correlation analysis showed that plasma sphk1, D-lactic acid, and I-FABP in patients with sepsis-induced gastrointestinal injury were positively correlated with PCT, Lac, APACHEII score, and AGI grade (all P < 0.05), and sphk1 was positively correlated with I-FABP and D-lactic acid (r values were 0.773 and 0.782, respectively, both P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that sphk1, D-lactic acid, I-FABP, APACHEII score, and SOFA score had high predictive value for gastrointestinal injury in patients with sepsis, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.996, 0.987, 0.976, 0.901, and 0.934 (all P < 0.05). When the optimal cut-off value of sphk1 was 60.46 ng/L, the sensitivity and specificity were 95.6% and 100%, respectively; when the optimal cut-off value of D-lactic acid was 1 454.3 μg/L, the sensitivity and specificity were 95.6% and 100%, respectively; when the optimal cut-off value of I-FABP was 0.91 ng/L, the sensitivity and specificity were 95.6% and 100%, respectively; when the optimal cut-off value of APACHEII score was 14.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 80.9% and 85.0%, respectively; when the optimal cut-off value of SOFA score was 3.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 85.3% and 95.0%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The levels of plasma sphk1, I-FABP, and D-lactic acid were significantly elevated in patients with sepsis and gastrointestinal injury. These indicators can serve as sensitive and relatively specific serological markers for early prediction of intestinal mucosal damage.
Humans
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Lactic Acid/blood*
;
Fatty Acid-Binding Proteins/blood*
;
Sepsis/complications*
;
Prospective Studies
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Predictive Value of Tests
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Gastrointestinal Diseases/blood*
;
Prognosis
7.Development of the robotic digestive endoscope system and an experimental study on mechanistic model and living animals (with video)
Bingrong LIU ; Yili FU ; Kaipeng LIU ; Deliang LI ; Bo PAN ; Dan LIU ; Hao QIU ; Xiaocan JIA ; Jianping CHEN ; Jiyu ZHANG ; Mei WANG ; Fengdong LI ; Xiaopeng ZHANG ; Zongling KAN ; Jinghao LI ; Yuan GAO ; Min SU ; Quanqin XIE ; Jun YANG ; Yu LIU ; Lixia ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy 2024;41(1):35-42
Objective:To develop a robotic digestive endoscope system (RDES) and to evaluate its feasibility, safety and control performance by experiments.Methods:The RDES was designed based on the master-slave control system, which consisted of 3 parts: the integrated endoscope, including a knob and button robotic control system integrated with a gastroscope; the robotic mechanical arm system, including the base and arm, as well as the endoscopic advance-retreat control device (force-feedback function was designed) and the endoscopic axial rotation control device; the control console, including a master manipulator and an image monitor. The operator sit far away from the endoscope and controlled the master manipulator to bend the end of the endoscope and to control advance, retract and rotation of the endoscope. The air supply, water supply, suction, figure fixing and motion scaling switching was realized by pressing buttons on the master manipulator. In the endoscopy experiments performed on live pigs, 5 physicians each were in the beginner and advanced groups. Each operator operated RDES and traditional endoscope (2 weeks interval) to perform porcine gastroscopy 6 times, comparing the examination time. In the experiment of endoscopic circle drawing on the inner wall of the simulated stomach model, each operator in the two groups operated RDES 1∶1 motion scaling, 5∶1 motion scaling and ordinary endoscope to complete endoscopic circle drawing 6 times, comparing the completion time, accuracy (i.e. trajectory deviation) and workload.Results:RDES was operated normally with good force feedback function. All porcine in vivo gastroscopies were successful, without mucosal injury, bleeding or perforation. In beginner and advanced groups, the examination time of both RDES and ordinary endoscopy tended to decrease as the number of operations increased, but the decrease in time was greater for operating RDES than for operating ordinary endoscope (beginner group P=0.033; advanced group P=0.023). In the beginner group, the operators operating RDES with 1∶1 motion scaling or 5∶1 motion scaling to complete endoscopic circle drawing had shorter completion time [1.68 (1.40, 2.17) min, 1.73 (1.47, 2.37) min VS 4.13 (2.27, 5.16) min, H=32.506, P<0.001], better trajectory deviation (0.50±0.11 mm, 0.46±0.11 mm VS 0.82±0.26 mm, F=38.999, P<0.001], and less workload [42.00 (30.00, 50.33) points, 43.33 (35.33, 54.00) points VS 52.67 (48.67, 63.33) points, H=20.056, P<0.001] than operating ordinary endoscope. In the advanced group, the operators operating RDES with 1∶1 or 5∶1 motion scaling to complete endoscopic circle drawing had longer completion time than operating ordinary endoscope [1.72 (1.37, 2.53) min, 1.57 (1.25, 2.58) min VS 1.15 (0.86, 1.58) min, H=13.233, P=0.001], but trajectory deviation [0.47 (0.13, 0.57) mm, 0.44 (0.39, 0.58) mm VS 0.52 (0.42, 0.59) mm, H=3.202, P=0.202] and workload (44.62±21.77 points, 41.24±12.57 points VS 44.71±17.92 points, F=0.369, P=0.693) were not different from those of the ordinary endoscope. Conclusion:The RDES enables remote control, greatly reducing the endoscopists' workload. Additionally, it gives full play to the cooperative motion function of the large and small endoscopic knobs, making the control more flexible. Finally, it increases motion scaling switching function to make the control of endoscope more flexible and more accurate. It is also easy for beginners to learn and master, and can shorten the training period. So it can provide the possibility of remote endoscopic control and fully automated robotic endoscope.
8.Potential Mechanism of Taraxaci Herba Against Bladder Cancer: A Review
Mingshun ZUO ; Zhicheng DONG ; Yu ZUO ; Hongchuan CHEN ; Hongjia CAI ; Congcong WU ; Xiaoyu AI ; Neng ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2024;30(7):290-298
Bladder cancer (BCa) is the most common malignant tumor of the urinary system, and its incidence is increasing year by year. At present, for all patients with resectable non-metastatic muscle-invasive BCa, radical cystectomy + bilateral pelvic lymph node dissection is strongly recommended, but they still face the risk of recurrence, metastasis and death. In recent years, the proportion of patients with advanced and metastatic BCa is increasing among patients with newly diagnosed BCa. Although current treatment models are diverse, they often struggle to achieve significant efficacy due to their low effectiveness and adverse effects, resulting in low survival rates for patients with advanced and metastatic BCa. Therefore, the treatment of BCa still faces great challenges, and there is an urgent need to discover an effective new antitumor drug. With the improvement of medical standards, traditional Chinese medicine has shown great advantages in the treatment of BCa. Traditional Chinese medicine is mild and easy to accept, and can inhibit tumor progression through a multi-pathway, multi-way and multi-target manner, so as to exert its anticancer effect. Taraxaci Herba is a medicinal and food homologous plant, which has many biological activities, such as antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidation, anti-tumor, protecting liver and gallbladder, reducing blood sugar and enhancing immunity, and it has shown a clear anticancer effect in breast cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, tongue cancer and lung cancer. By reviewing previous studies worldwide, this article summarizes the mechanism of Taraxaci Herba extract in inducing autophagy and apoptosis, inhibiting cell migration and invasion, regulating cell cycle and proliferation, regulating cell metabolism, inhibiting tumor angiogenesis, combining the effects of chemotherapeutic drugs, and regulating the transduction of related signal pathways. On this basis, this study systematically elaborates on the potential mechanism of Taraxaci Herba against BCa, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the research and treatment of BCa.
9.Clinical efficacy of adjunctive perampanel in focal epilepsy patients≥12 years old
Xiaoli SHI ; Lixia LI ; Yanting LU ; Lang SHEN ; Xiangru LU ; Jinou ZHENG ; Yuan WU ; Lu YU
Chinese Journal of Neuromedicine 2024;23(1):48-54
Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy, tolerability and safety of adjunctive perampanel in focal epilepsy patients≥12 years old.Methods:One hundred and nineteen focal epilepsy patients≥12 years old accepted adjunctive perampanel in Department of Neurology, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from July 2020 to December 2022 were chosen. At 1-3 months, 4-6 months, 7-9 months and 10-12 months after adjunctive perampanel, seizure frequency changes every 28 d, medication retention rate and adverse reactions were recorded to evaluate the clinical efficacy (a reduction in seizure frequency≥50% from baseline was defined as overall valid treatment), tolerability and safety of adjunctive perampanel. According to efficacy results after adjunctive perampanel of 4-6 months (short-term) and 10-12 months (long-term), these patients were divided into valid group and invalid group; and the influencing factors for short-term and long-term efficacy were analyzed.Results:At 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 months after adjunctive perampanel, reduction in seizure frequency every 28 d was 66.7% (24.3%, 97.2%), 77.5% (48.6%, 100%), 94.6% (50%, 100%), 100% (70.9%, 100%), enjoying overall valid rate of 60.2% (59/98), 75.0% (7/76), 78.9% (45/57), 86.5% (32/37). The retention rate at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after adjunctive perampanel was 85.2% (98/115), 67.9% (76/112), 54.3% (57/105), 41.1% (37/90). Adverse reactions were reported in 33 patents (27.7%), mainly with dizziness and secondly with mental symptoms. After short-term and long-term adjunctive perampanel, no significant difference was noted in gender, initial age of adjunctive perampanel, course of disease, etiology, EEG results, imaging results, number and type of combined anti-seizure drugs, or maximum dose of pirampanel between the valid group and invalid group ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Perampanel has good efficacy, tolerability and safety in adolescents and adults≥12 years old with focal epilepsy; no clear influencing factors for pirampanel valid treatment is found so far.
10.The experience on the construction of the cluster prevention and control system for COVID-19 infection in designated hospitals during the period of "Category B infectious disease treated as Category A"
Wanjie YANG ; Xianduo LIU ; Ximo WANG ; Weiguo XU ; Lei ZHANG ; Qiang FU ; Jiming YANG ; Jing QIAN ; Fuyu ZHANG ; Li TIAN ; Wenlong ZHANG ; Yu ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Shifeng SHAO ; Xiang WANG ; Li GENG ; Yi REN ; Ying WANG ; Lixia SHI ; Zhen WAN ; Yi XIE ; Yuanyuan LIU ; Weili YU ; Jing HAN ; Li LIU ; Huan ZHU ; Zijiang YU ; Hongyang LIU ; Shimei WANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2024;36(2):195-201
The COVID-19 epidemic has spread to the whole world for three years and has had a serious impact on human life, health and economic activities. China's epidemic prevention and control has gone through the following stages: emergency unconventional stage, emergency normalization stage, and the transitional stage from the emergency normalization to the "Category B infectious disease treated as Category B" normalization, and achieved a major and decisive victory. The designated hospitals for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in Tianjin has successfully completed its tasks in all stages of epidemic prevention and control, and has accumulated valuable experience. This article summarizes the experience of constructing a hospital infection prevention and control system during the "Category B infectious disease treated as Category A" period in designated hospital. The experience is summarized as the "Cluster" hospital infection prevention and control system, namely "three rings" outside, middle and inside, "three districts" of green, orange and red, "three things" before, during and after the event, "two-day pre-purification" and "two-director system", and "one zone" management. In emergency situations, we adopt a simplified version of the cluster hospital infection prevention and control system. In emergency situations, a simplified version of the "Cluster" hospital infection prevention and control system can be adopted. This system has the following characteristics: firstly, the system emphasizes the characteristics of "cluster" and the overall management of key measures to avoid any shortcomings. The second, it emphasizes the transformation of infection control concepts to maximize the safety of medical services through infection control. The third, it emphasizes the optimization of the process. The prevention and control measures should be comprehensive and focused, while also preventing excessive use. The measures emphasize the use of the least resources to achieve the best infection control effect. The fourth, it emphasizes the quality control work of infection control, pays attention to the importance of the process, and advocates the concept of "system slimming, process fattening". Fifthly, it emphasizes that the future development depends on artificial intelligence, in order to improve the quality and efficiency of prevention and control to the greatest extent. Sixth, hospitals need to strengthen continuous training and retraining. We utilize diverse training methods, including artificial intelligence, to ensure that infection control policies and procedures are simple. We have established an evaluation and feedback mechanism to ensure that medical personnel are in an emergency state at all times.


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