Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Functional constipation （FC） is a common functional disorder of the intestines， mainly characterized by reduced bowel movement frequency， difficulty in defecation， a sensation of incomplete evacuation， and hard stools， which severely affect patients’ quality of life. Research indicates that the pathogenesis of FC is closely related to gut microbiota dysbiosis and abnormal bile acid secretion. Bile acids， as endogenous natural laxatives， promote bowel movements by enhancing colonic secretion and regulating intestinal motility； meanwhile， gut microbiota influence colonic transit function by regulating the enteric nervous system， immune system， and their metabolic products. Based on an overview of the relationship between gut microbiota and bile acid metabolism， this article systematically reviews the current research status on the mechanisms of traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） in treating FC by regulating the balance of the gut microbiota-bile acid axis. It is found that single Chinese medicinal herbs （such as Atractylodes macrocephala）， isolated compounds （such as Platycodon grandiflorum polysaccharides）， herbal formulas （such as Shanger huang pill）， acupuncture， and moxibustion can up-regulate the abundance of beneficial bacteria， reshape the microbial structure， correct bile acid metabolism， and activate the Takeda G-protein receptor 5/farnesoid X receptor pathway to treat FC.

ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and safety of Yuyin Lidan granules （YYLD） in preventing the recurrence of common bile duct stones （CBDS） in patients with liver and gallbladder dampness-heat syndrome following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography （ERCP）. MethodsThis randomized， parallel， controlled trial enrolled postoperative CBDS-ERCP patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Sixty-four patients were randomly assigned to an observation group or a control group， with 32 cases in each. Both groups received conventional Western medical treatment after ERCP， while the observation group additionally received YYLD for 8 weeks. The follow-up period lasted for 1 year. The efficacy indicators included bile bilirubin levels， traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） syndrome scores， clinical efficacy rate， pancreatitis and inflammation markers， postoperative liver function， and CBDS recurrence rate at 1-year follow-up， which were used to jointly evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of both groups. ResultsA total of 56 patients completed the study and were included in the final analysis， i.e.， 29 in the observation group and 27 in the control group. Baseline characteristics were comparable between the two groups. Compared with pre-treatment and with the control group after treatment， the bile bilirubin level in the observation group significantly decreased （P<0.05）. After treatment， the clinical cure and marked improvement rates were higher in the observation group than in the control group， showing a statistically significant difference in overall clinical efficacy （P<0.05）. Compared with pre-treatment， the primary and secondary symptoms in the observation group， as well as the primary symptom and the secondary symptom of nausea and vomiting in the control group （weeks 4 and 8）， were significantly reduced （P<0.05）. Compared with the control group after treatment， the observation group showed significant reductions in the primary symptom of loose stools/constipation （day 5 and week 4） and in three secondary symptoms， i.e.， bitter taste and sticky dry mouth， abdominal distension and poor appetite （throughout the treatment period）， and general heaviness and fatigue （day 5 and week 4）， with statistical differences （P<0.05）. Compared with pre-treatment， both groups showed decreased lipase and urinary amylase levels （P<0.05）. However， no significant between-group differences were observed in pancreatitis or inflammation-related indices after treatment. Compared with pre-treatment， all liver function indicators in the observation group and alanine aminotransferase （ ALT ）， γ-glutamyl transferase （ γ-GT ）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， and conjugated bilirubin in the control group significantly decreased at weeks 4 and 8 （P<0.05）. Compared with the control group after treatment， only serum total bilirubin and unconjugated bilirubin were significantly reduced in the observation group during the treatment period （P<0.05）. ConclusionYYLD combined with conventional Western medical treatment can effectively regulate bilirubin metabolism （in bile and serum）， improve TCM clinical symptoms， and prevent CBDS recurrence after ERCP in patients with liver and gallbladder dampness-heat syndrome. This regimen is safe and effective and is worthy of further clinical research and promotion.

Objective To implement the disease prevention and control strategy of being ^"proactive and grassroots-focused,^" and to enhance the overall effectiveness of general hospitals in the tertiary prevention of cervical cancer, this consensus aims to provide an actionable guiding framework for the standardized construction of ^"Integrated Outpatient Clinics for Cervical Cancer Prevention and Control^" in general hospitals at all levels. Methods This consensus systematically elaborates on the specific elements for establishing such integrated clinics and formulates the corresponding standards. Results It is anticipated that the consensus will promote the establishment of standardized, homogeneous, and high-efficiency frontline positions for cervical cancer prevention and control within general hospitals, thereby contributing to the strategic vision of accelerating the elimination of cervical cancer. Conclusion The formulation and promotion of the consensus aim to provide robust clinical practice support for accelerating the realization of China's strategic vision of eliminating cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND:Pure titanium and titanium alloy implants are widely used in the field of implant restoration due to their excellent biocompatibility and elastic modulus.However,the biological inertness of the surface of titanium-based implants leads to poor integration with surrounding bone tissues,and surface modification is required to improve the bone integration ability of titanium-based implants.OBJECTIVE:To fabricate hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coatings on pure titanium substrates,and to investigate their physicochemical properties and biocompatibility of the coating materials.METHODS:Hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coatings were prepared on pure titanium substrates by electrochemical deposition and freeze-drying.Titanium sheets loaded with interleukin-4 and titanium sheets loaded with hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide coatings were prepared at the same time,and the physicochemical properties of pure titanium sheets and the above three titanium sheets were characterized.MC3T3-E1 cells were inoculated on the surfaces of pure titanium sheets and the above three titanium sheets,respectively.Cell proliferation was detected by CCK-8 assay and DAPI staining.Cell activity was detected by Calcein-AM/PI staining.Cell morphology and adhesion were observed by scanning electron microscopy.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Scanning electron microscopy,energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy,X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy,X-ray diffraction,and Raman spectroscopy confirmed the successful fabrication of the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coating on the titanium surface.The water contact angle of hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 group was larger than that of pure titanium group and hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide group,and smaller than that of interleukin-4 group.(2)CCK-8 assay and DAPI staining results showed that hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 coating could promote the proliferation of MC3T3-E1 cells.Calcein-AM/PI staining results showed that MC3T3-E1 cells in hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 coating group had higher activity and fewer dead cells.Scanning electron microscopy showed that MC3T3-E1 cells adhered to the surfaces of the four groups of materials with good cell morphology.Compared with the pure titanium group,the MC3T3-E1 cells in the interleukin-4 group extended more pseudopodia,the cell-cell connections were closer,and the adhesion area was larger;compared with the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide group,the MC3T3-E1 cells in the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 group extended more pseudopodia,the cell-cell connections were closer,and the adhesion area was larger.(3)These findings indicate that the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coating possesses favorable physicochemical and biological properties.

BACKGROUND:Pure titanium and titanium alloy implants are widely used in the field of implant restoration due to their excellent biocompatibility and elastic modulus.However,the biological inertness of the surface of titanium-based implants leads to poor integration with surrounding bone tissues,and surface modification is required to improve the bone integration ability of titanium-based implants.OBJECTIVE:To fabricate hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coatings on pure titanium substrates,and to investigate their physicochemical properties and biocompatibility of the coating materials.METHODS:Hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coatings were prepared on pure titanium substrates by electrochemical deposition and freeze-drying.Titanium sheets loaded with interleukin-4 and titanium sheets loaded with hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide coatings were prepared at the same time,and the physicochemical properties of pure titanium sheets and the above three titanium sheets were characterized.MC3T3-E1 cells were inoculated on the surfaces of pure titanium sheets and the above three titanium sheets,respectively.Cell proliferation was detected by CCK-8 assay and DAPI staining.Cell activity was detected by Calcein-AM/PI staining.Cell morphology and adhesion were observed by scanning electron microscopy.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Scanning electron microscopy,energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy,X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy,X-ray diffraction,and Raman spectroscopy confirmed the successful fabrication of the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coating on the titanium surface.The water contact angle of hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 group was larger than that of pure titanium group and hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide group,and smaller than that of interleukin-4 group.(2)CCK-8 assay and DAPI staining results showed that hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 coating could promote the proliferation of MC3T3-E1 cells.Calcein-AM/PI staining results showed that MC3T3-E1 cells in hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 coating group had higher activity and fewer dead cells.Scanning electron microscopy showed that MC3T3-E1 cells adhered to the surfaces of the four groups of materials with good cell morphology.Compared with the pure titanium group,the MC3T3-E1 cells in the interleukin-4 group extended more pseudopodia,the cell-cell connections were closer,and the adhesion area was larger;compared with the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide group,the MC3T3-E1 cells in the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 group extended more pseudopodia,the cell-cell connections were closer,and the adhesion area was larger.(3)These findings indicate that the hydroxyapatite/graphene oxide/interleukin-4 composite coating possesses favorable physicochemical and biological properties.

Objective To isolate pathogenic bacteria from the skin of a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs, and perform bacterial identification, traceability analysis, and pathogenicity studies to provide a new approach for the diagnosis of pathogens in nude mice with squamous skin scurfs. MethodsSkin swab samples were collected from a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs for nucleic acid testing, bacterial isolation and culture, biochemical identification, 16S rDNA gene amplification and sequencing, and whole genome sequencing to construct a phylogenetic tree. Fifteen BALB/c nude mice were randomized into a saline-treated control group, a high-concentration group treated with 1.8×10⁸ CFU/mL of the isolated bacterial suspension, and a low-concentration group treated with 1.8×10⁷ CFU/mL of the isolated bacterial suspension. Pathogenicity was assessed by animal infection experiments and observation of histopathological changes in skin tissue using HE staining. Results The nucleic acid test for Corynebacterium bovis was negative, excluding infection by this organism. The pathogen isolated on mannitol salt agar and blood agar, combined with Gram staining, suggested a Gram-positive Staphylococcus species. The isolated strain was identified by 16S rDNA sequencing and a fully automated microbial identification system as Staphylococcus xylosus. Phylogenetic tree analysis based on whole genome sequencing showed that the strain was most closely related to an isolate from leafy vegetables in South Korea (GenBank GCA_00207825.1). In the high-concentration group, squamous skin scurfs appeared on the head, neck, and back of nude mice on the 17th day post-infection, while in the low concentration group, similar symptoms appeared on the 20th day post-infection and gradually spread to other areas. The scaling symptoms were transient, lasting for 7 days in the high-concentration group and 3 days in the low-concentration group, after which the skin returned to normal. The infection rate was 33.33% in both the high- and low-concentration groups. No significant pathological changes were observed in the skin tissues of infected mice compared to the control group, indicating marked individual differences in the pathogenicity of the strain in nude mice. Conclusion A strain of Staphylococcus xylosus was isolated from the skin of a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs. The strain is an opportunistic pathogen that causes transient squamous skin scurfs without significant histopathological changes, and there are individual differences in the sensitivity of nude mice to this strain. These findings can provide valuable data for pathogen identification in immunodeficient or gene knockout mice.

Objective To isolate pathogenic bacteria from the skin of a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs, and perform bacterial identification, traceability analysis, and pathogenicity studies to provide a new approach for the diagnosis of pathogens in nude mice with squamous skin scurfs. MethodsSkin swab samples were collected from a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs for nucleic acid testing, bacterial isolation and culture, biochemical identification, 16S rDNA gene amplification and sequencing, and whole genome sequencing to construct a phylogenetic tree. Fifteen BALB/c nude mice were randomized into a saline-treated control group, a high-concentration group treated with 1.8×10⁸ CFU/mL of the isolated bacterial suspension, and a low-concentration group treated with 1.8×10⁷ CFU/mL of the isolated bacterial suspension. Pathogenicity was assessed by animal infection experiments and observation of histopathological changes in skin tissue using HE staining. Results The nucleic acid test for Corynebacterium bovis was negative, excluding infection by this organism. The pathogen isolated on mannitol salt agar and blood agar, combined with Gram staining, suggested a Gram-positive Staphylococcus species. The isolated strain was identified by 16S rDNA sequencing and a fully automated microbial identification system as Staphylococcus xylosus. Phylogenetic tree analysis based on whole genome sequencing showed that the strain was most closely related to an isolate from leafy vegetables in South Korea (GenBank GCA_00207825.1). In the high-concentration group, squamous skin scurfs appeared on the head, neck, and back of nude mice on the 17th day post-infection, while in the low concentration group, similar symptoms appeared on the 20th day post-infection and gradually spread to other areas. The scaling symptoms were transient, lasting for 7 days in the high-concentration group and 3 days in the low-concentration group, after which the skin returned to normal. The infection rate was 33.33% in both the high- and low-concentration groups. No significant pathological changes were observed in the skin tissues of infected mice compared to the control group, indicating marked individual differences in the pathogenicity of the strain in nude mice. Conclusion A strain of Staphylococcus xylosus was isolated from the skin of a nude mouse exhibiting squamous skin scurfs. The strain is an opportunistic pathogen that causes transient squamous skin scurfs without significant histopathological changes, and there are individual differences in the sensitivity of nude mice to this strain. These findings can provide valuable data for pathogen identification in immunodeficient or gene knockout mice.

ObjectiveTo establish and validate a new prediction model for the risk of death in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure （ACLF） based on sarcopenia and other clinical indicators， and to improve the accuracy of prognostic assessment for ACLF patients. MethodsA total of 380 patients with ACLF who were admitted to Beijing YouAn Hospital， Capital Medical University， from January 2019 to January 2022 were enrolled， and they were divided into training group with 228 patients and testing group with 152 patients in a ratio of 6∶4 using the stratified random sampling method. For the training group， CT images were used to measure the cross-sectional area of the skeletal muscle at the third lumbar vertebra （L3）， and L3 skeletal muscle index （L3-SMI） was calculated. Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on the previously established L3-SMI reference values for healthy adults in northern China. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to establish a sarcopenia-ACLF model which integrated sarcopenia and clinical risk factors， and a nomogram was developed for presentation. The area under the ROC curve （AUC） was used to assess the predictive performance of the model， the calibration curve was used to assess the degree of calibration， and a decision curve analysis was used to investigate the clinical application value of the model. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves， and the Log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. The DeLong test was used for comparison of AUC between different models. ResultsThe multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that sarcopenia （hazard ratio ［HR］=1.962， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.185‍ ‍—‍ ‍3.250， P=0.009）， total bilirubin （HR=1.003， 95%CI： 1.002‍ ‍—‍ ‍1.005， P<0.001）， international normalized ratio （HR=1.997， 95%CI： 1.674‍ ‍—‍ ‍2.382， P<0.001）， and lactic acid （HR=1.382， 95%CI： 1.170‍ ‍—‍ ‍1.632， P<0.001） were included in the sarcopenia-ACLF model. In the training cohort， the sarcopenia-ACLF model had a larger AUC than MELD-Na score in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF （0.80 vs 0.73， Z=1.97， P=0.049）. In the test cohort， the sarcopenia-ACLF model had a significantly larger AUC than MELD score （0.79 vs 0.69， Z=2.70， P=0.007） and MELD-Na score （0.79 vs 0.68， Z=2.92， P=0.004）. The calibration curve showed that the model had good calibration ability， with a relatively good consistency between the predicted risk of mortality and the observed results. The DCA results showed that within a reasonable range of threshold probabilities， the sarcopenia-ACLF model showed a greater net benefit than MELD and MELD-Na scores in both the training cohort and the test cohort. ConclusionThe sarcopenia-ACLF model developed in this study provides a more accurate tool for predicting the risk of 90-day mortality in ACLF patients， which provides support for clinical decision-making and helps to optimize treatment strategies.

The subcortical visual pathway is generally thought to be involved in dangerous information processing, such as fear processing and defensive behavior. A recent study, published in Human Brain Mapping, shows a new function of the subcortical pathway involved in the fast processing of non-emotional object perception. Rapid object processing is a critical function of visual system. Topological perception theory proposes that the initial perception of objects begins with the extraction of topological property (TP). However, the mechanism of rapid TP processing remains unclear. The researchers investigated the subcortical mechanism of TP processing with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). They find that a subcortical magnocellular pathway is responsible for the early processing of TP, and this subcortical processing of TP accelerates object recognition. Based on their findings, we propose a novel training approach called subcortical magnocellular pathway training (SMPT), aimed at improving the efficiency of the subcortical M pathway to restore visual and attentional functions in disorders associated with subcortical pathway dysfunction.