1.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
2.Global and Chinese burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in chronic liver disease: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Xinyu ZHAO ; Dong XU ; Wei JI ; Zhengzhao LU ; Cheng HUANG ; Jingjie ZHAO ; Tingting XIAO ; Dongxu WANG ; Yuanyuan KONG ; Jidong JIA ; Hong YOU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(14):1741-1751
BACKGROUND:
Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies.
METHODS:
The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted.
RESULTS:
In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging.
CONCLUSIONS
The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans
;
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality*
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Prevalence
;
Male
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Female
;
Incidence
;
Middle Aged
;
Chronic Disease
;
Adult
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
;
Liver Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Aged
3.Spicy food consumption and risk of vascular disease: Evidence from a large-scale Chinese prospective cohort of 0.5 million people.
Dongfang YOU ; Dianjianyi SUN ; Ziyu ZHAO ; Mingyu SONG ; Lulu PAN ; Yaqian WU ; Yingdan TANG ; Mengyi LU ; Fang SHAO ; Sipeng SHEN ; Jianling BAI ; Honggang YI ; Ruyang ZHANG ; Yongyue WEI ; Hongxia MA ; Hongyang XU ; Canqing YU ; Jun LV ; Pei PEI ; Ling YANG ; Yiping CHEN ; Zhengming CHEN ; Hongbing SHEN ; Feng CHEN ; Yang ZHAO ; Liming LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(14):1696-1704
BACKGROUND:
Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association.
METHODS:
This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results.
RESULTS:
During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week ( Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD ( Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs ( Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD ( Pinteraction = 0.037).
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Vascular Diseases/etiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Adult
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology*
;
East Asian People
4.Analysis of depressive symptoms and associated factors among primary and secondary school students in the in depth monitoring counties Rural Nutrition Improvement Program
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(2):219-222
Objective:
To understand the prevalence and related factors of depressive symptoms among primary and secondary school students in the in depth monitoring counties of China s Rural Compulsory Education Nutrition Improvement Program, so as to provide a basis for prevention and psychological intervention of depressive symptoms among children and adolescents in rural areas.
Methods:
In November 2022, a stratified random sampling method was adopted to collect height and weight data, basic personal and family information of 7 949 primary and secondary school students from grade three to grade nine through physical measurements and questionnaires in 56 key monitoring schools implementing the Student Nutrition Improvement Program in 7 in depth monitoring counties (Jalaid Banner in Inner Mongolia, Jinzhai County in Anhui, Mao Xian in Sichuan, Tiandeng County in Guangxi, Mian County in Shaanxi, Zhaozhou County in Heilongjiang and Youxi County in Fujian), and to obtain the information related to their depressive symptoms through the self assessment questionnaire on depression. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the prevalence of depressive symptoms among primary and secondary school students, as well as their related factors.
Results:
The detection rate of depressive symptoms among primary and secondary school students in the in depth monitored counties was 23.5%. Logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of detecting depressive symptoms was higher among female students, middle school students, students whose video screen duration per day was >2 h, and students whose parents marital status was divorced or widowed ( OR =1.40, 1.64, 1.60, 1.24), and students whose sleep duration reached the recommended standard, whose parents usually accompanied them daily for time was 60-<120 min and ≥120 min, and students whose mothers literacy level was middle school graduation had lower probability of detecting depressive symptoms ( OR =0.85, 0.84, 0.71, 0.76) ( P < 0.05 ).
Conclusion
The detection rate of depressive symptoms among students in the in depth monitoring area is high, and targeted interventions need to be developed for students to reduce the risk of mental health problems.
5.Quality assessment of guidelines/consensuses on traditional Chinese medicine/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Ruimin JIAO ; Jingjie ZHAO ; Juanjuan LI ; Wei CHEN ; Chaoru HAN ; Li LI ; Chunjun XU ; Hong YOU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(3):446-452
ObjectiveTo evaluate the methodological quality and reporting quality of published guidelines/consensuses on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM)/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and to provide a basis for formulating guidelines/consensuses on TCM/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of NAFLD in the future. MethodsDatabases including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and CBM and the websites of China Association of Chinese Medicine and China Association of Integrative Medicine were searched for related articles published up to September 1, 2024. Two clinical researchers independently assessed the methodological quality and reporting quality of the guidelines/consensuses on TCM/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of NAFLD by using Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation Ⅱ (AGREE Ⅱ) and Reporting Items for Practice Guidelines in Healthcare (RIGHT). ResultsA total of nine guidelines/consensuses were included after literature screening, with four guidelines and five expert consensuses. The scores of different domains assessed by AGREE Ⅱ for the nine guidelines/consensuses were as follows: scope and purpose (47.1%), stakeholder involvement (41.0%), rigor of development (21.6%), clarity of presentation (40.2%), applicability (19.0%), and editorial independence (19.6%). The recommendation level of the articles was B level (recommended after revision) for four articles and C level (not recommended) for five articles. The RIGHT assessment showed high reporting rates for “Basic Information” and “Background”, while other areas needed to be improved. Currently, there was no international standard for the guidelines/consensuses on TCM/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of NAFLD, and the quality of these guidelines/consensuses needed to be enhanced to ensure comprehensiveness and credibility. ConclusionThere is still potential for improving the quality of guidelines/consensuses on TCM/integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine diagnosis and treatment of NAFLD, and AGREE Ⅱ and RIGHT checklists should be strictly followed to ensure the fairness, scientific rigor, and transparency of these guidelines/consensuses.
6.Model establishment for quantitative analysis of saponins of Paris polyphylla by near-infrared spectroscopy
Ping XU ; Qi MI ; Wen-xiu LUO ; You LU ; Meng-wen YU ; Xuan ZHANG ; Guo-wei ZHENG ; Chang-gui QIU ; Jia CHEN
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(4):1069-1076
AIM To establish a rapid quantitative analysis model for saponins in Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis(PPY)by near infrared spectroscopy.METHODS The contents of polyphyllins Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅶ and there total content in PPY were determined by HPLC,while spectral data within the range of 10 000 to 4 000 cm-1 were collected.A quantitative analysis model was established by combining these data with partial least squares regression(PLSR).Multivariate scatter correction(MSC)and vector normalization(SNV)were applied prior to further preprocessing the spectra with original,first-order derivative(1stD),or second-order derivative(2ndD)treatments.Lastly,the model was optimized through non-smoothing(NS),Norris Derivative filtering(Nd),and Savitzky-Golay filtering(S-G)method.Model stability was evaluated based on correlation coefficients and variance.The predicted contents of each saponin component in the validation set samples were calculated.RESULTS The contents of polyphyllins Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅶ were 0.42-17.98,0.46-10.44,0.23-3.86 mg/g,respectively.The total content ranged from 2.91 to 22.1 mg/g.The optimal parameters of three saponins were achieved when selecting the MSC+2ndD+S-G pretreatment method.The corresponding ratio of line segment length to segment gap was 13∶5,15∶5,11∶5,with correlation coefficients of 0.982,0.930,0.958,respectively.The root mean square errors of calibration(RMSEC)were 0.702,0.797,0.238,and the root mean square errors of prediction(RMSEP)were 1.120,0.835,0.304,respectively.The optimal parameters for the total content were obtained when selecting the MSC+2ndD+NS pretreatment method,with a correlation coefficient of 0.970,a RMSEC of 1.090,and a RMSEP of 1.740.CONCLUSION This accurate and rapid method can be used for detection of saponin contents in P.Polyphylla.
7.Altered global topological properties of brain gray matter and white matter functional networks in major depressive disorder and bipolar depression
Taipeng SUN ; Yue ZHOU ; Gang CHEN ; Wei XU ; Linlin YOU ; Yingying YIN ; Yonggui YUAN
Chinese Journal of Psychiatry 2025;58(12):891-902
Objective:To investigate the alterations in the topological properties of gray matter and white matter dynamic and static functional brain networks in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar depression (BDD) using graph theory analysis, and to evaluate the potential of their combination as biomarkers for differential diagnosis between unipolar and bipolar depression.Methods:From March 2021 to April 2024, inpatients were recruited from the Department of Psychosomatic Medicine, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, including 132 patients with MDD, 84 patients with BDD, and 91 healthy controls (HCs). Resting-state structural and functional MRI data were collected, and dynamic and static functional brain networks of gray matter and white matter were constructed. Graph theory analysis was applied to calculate global and nodal network properties, differences in topological attributes among the three groups were compared by One-way analysis of covariance, and Turkey′s post hoc test was used for further pairwise comparison. The network topology attribute indicators with statistically significant inter-group differences were selected using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression (LASSO) for feature classification. The diagnostic performance of combined gray and white matter network features for distinguishing MDD from BDD was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and a random forest model.Results:In the analysis of the static gray matter functional network, both MDD and BDD patients showed abnormal local topological properties. Compared with HCs, the MDD group exhibited abnormal betweenness centrality (BC) in the left inferior frontal gyrus, left precuneus, left ventromedial occipital cortex, right ventromedial occipital cortex, and right anterior thalamus ( t=-3.95-3.62, all P<0.05). The degree centrality (DC) of the left and right anterior thalamus was also abnormal in the MDD group ( t=3.78,4.14, both P<0.001), as was the nodal efficiency (Ne) of the left precuneus and bilateral anterior thalamus ( t=2.37, 3.61, 3.82, all P<0.05). Compared with HCs, the BDD group showed abnormalities in DC and Ne of the left precuneus ( t=-2.76, P=0.014; t=-3.01, P=0.007). In the analysis of the dynamic white matter functional network, both MDD and BDD patients demonstrated abnormal temporal variability of local topological properties. Compared with HCs, the MDD and BDD groups showed reduced BC temporal variability in the left superior corona radiata ( t=-2.39, P=0.047; t=-4.28, P<0.001), and there were significant differences in DC temporal variability in the right posterior limb of the internal capsule and lentiform nucleus ( t=2.65, P=0.021; t=3.49, P=0.001) in MDD group compared with HCs and BBD. The differential diagnosis model combining gray and white matter dynamic and static network topological features achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.80. Conclusion:Both MDD and BDD exhibit altered topological properties in static gray matter functional networks and dynamic white matter functional networks. The combination of these features may aid in the differential diagnosis of MDD and BDD.
8.Processing technology of calcined Magnetitum based on concept of QbD and its XRD characteristic spectra.
De-Wen ZENG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Tian-Xing HE ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Huan-Huan XU ; Jian FENG ; Yue YANG ; Xin CHEN ; Jia-Liang ZOU ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2391-2403
Guided by the concept of quality by design(QbD), this study optimizes the calcination and quenching process of calcined Magnetitum and establishes the XRD characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum, providing a scientific basis for the formulation of quality standards. Based on the processing methods and quality requirements of Magnetitum in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia, the critical process parameters(CPPs) identified were calcination temperature, calcination time, particle size, laying thickness, and the number of vinegar quenching cycles. The critical quality attributes(CQAs) included Fe mass fraction, Fe~(2+) dissolution, and surface color. The weight coefficients were determined by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC) method, and the calcination process was optimized using orthogonal experimentation. Surface color was selected as a CQA, and based on the principle of color value, the surface color of calcined Magnetitum was objectively quantified. The vinegar quenching process was then optimized to determine the best processing conditions. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was used to establish the characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum, and methods such as similarity evaluation, cluster analysis, and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis(OPLS-DA) were used to evaluate the quality of the spectra. The optimized calcined Magnetitum preparation process was found to be calcination at 750 ℃ for 1 h, with a laying thickness of 4 cm, a particle size of 0.4-0.8 cm, and one vinegar quenching cycle(Magnetitum-vinegar ratio 10∶3), which was stable and feasible. The XRD characteristic spectra analysis method, featuring 9 common peaks as fingerprint information, was established. The average correlation coefficient ranged from 0.839 5-0.988 1, and the average angle cosine ranged from 0.914 4 to 0.995 6, indicating good similarity. Cluster analysis results showed that Magnetitum and calcined Magnetitum could be grouped together, with similar compositions. OPLS-DA discriminant analysis identified three key characteristic peaks, with Fe_2O_3 being the distinguishing component between the two. The final optimized processing method is stable and feasible, and the XRD characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum was initially established, providing a reference for subsequent quality control and the formulation of quality standards for calcined Magnetitum.
X-Ray Diffraction/methods*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Quality Control
;
Particle Size
9.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
10.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.


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