1.Trends of Cervical Cancer Incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021
Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Jun WANG ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU
China Cancer 2025;34(2):108-115
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021.[Methods]Based on the cervical cancer registration database in Qi-dong City from 1977 to 2021,the crude incidence rate,the age-standardized rate by the standard Chinese standard population and the world standard population(ASRC and ASRW),the truncated rate of 35~64 years old,the cumulative rate of 0~74 years old,and the cumulative risk were cal-culated;the incidence rates of birth cohorts were analyzed.Joinpoint regression analysis was per-formed with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of cervical cancer incidence.[Results]A total of 2 253 new cases of cervical cancer registered in Qidong City from 1977 to 2021,accounting for 1.62%of the total case numbers of cancer in the whole population,and for 4.03%of the total number of cancers in women.The crude incidence rate was 8.75/105,the ASRC was 4.54/105,the ASRW was 6.01/105,the truncated rate(35~64 years old)was 15.09/105,the cumulative rate(0~74 years old)was 0.63%,and the cumulative risk was 0.63%.The incidence of cervical cancer increased with age from 1977 to 2021.The average incident age was 55.36 years old,with the lowest age of 47.51 years old in 2010.Secular trend analysis showed that the AAPC of the crude incidence of cervical cancer was 6.010%(95%CI:4.951%~7.081%)(P<0.001),among which the trend decreased from 1977 to 1999,with an APC of-2.507%;and then the trend increased from 1999 to 2017,with an APC of 14.436%(P<0.001).The rising and falling trend curves of the AS-RC and ASRW were similar to that of the crude incidence.The age group and time period analysis showed that the peak incidence was in the older age groups before 2006,while the peak inci-dence appeared in the age groups of 45~54 years old from 2007 to 2021.The AAPCs in age groups of 25~64 years old demonstrated upward trends(all P<0.05).The birth cohort analysis showed that the cervical cancer incidence in the 1937-1941 birth cohort was the lowest,and the birth cohort-specific rates in all age groups showed"V-shape"trends.[Conclusion]Long-term monitoring of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong has shown a trend of initially slow decline fol-lowed by a rapid increase,with the peak incident shifting towards younger ages.The rising trends of cervical cancer incidence in last two decades may be associated with the increased HPV infection,suggesting that measures to reduce HPV infection and enhance vaccination should be strengthened.
2.Trends of Cervical Cancer Incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021
Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Jun WANG ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU
China Cancer 2025;34(2):108-115
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1977 to 2021.[Methods]Based on the cervical cancer registration database in Qi-dong City from 1977 to 2021,the crude incidence rate,the age-standardized rate by the standard Chinese standard population and the world standard population(ASRC and ASRW),the truncated rate of 35~64 years old,the cumulative rate of 0~74 years old,and the cumulative risk were cal-culated;the incidence rates of birth cohorts were analyzed.Joinpoint regression analysis was per-formed with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of cervical cancer incidence.[Results]A total of 2 253 new cases of cervical cancer registered in Qidong City from 1977 to 2021,accounting for 1.62%of the total case numbers of cancer in the whole population,and for 4.03%of the total number of cancers in women.The crude incidence rate was 8.75/105,the ASRC was 4.54/105,the ASRW was 6.01/105,the truncated rate(35~64 years old)was 15.09/105,the cumulative rate(0~74 years old)was 0.63%,and the cumulative risk was 0.63%.The incidence of cervical cancer increased with age from 1977 to 2021.The average incident age was 55.36 years old,with the lowest age of 47.51 years old in 2010.Secular trend analysis showed that the AAPC of the crude incidence of cervical cancer was 6.010%(95%CI:4.951%~7.081%)(P<0.001),among which the trend decreased from 1977 to 1999,with an APC of-2.507%;and then the trend increased from 1999 to 2017,with an APC of 14.436%(P<0.001).The rising and falling trend curves of the AS-RC and ASRW were similar to that of the crude incidence.The age group and time period analysis showed that the peak incidence was in the older age groups before 2006,while the peak inci-dence appeared in the age groups of 45~54 years old from 2007 to 2021.The AAPCs in age groups of 25~64 years old demonstrated upward trends(all P<0.05).The birth cohort analysis showed that the cervical cancer incidence in the 1937-1941 birth cohort was the lowest,and the birth cohort-specific rates in all age groups showed"V-shape"trends.[Conclusion]Long-term monitoring of cervical cancer incidence in Qidong has shown a trend of initially slow decline fol-lowed by a rapid increase,with the peak incident shifting towards younger ages.The rising trends of cervical cancer incidence in last two decades may be associated with the increased HPV infection,suggesting that measures to reduce HPV infection and enhance vaccination should be strengthened.
3.Incidence Trend of Brain and Other Central Nervous System Tumors in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021
Lulu DING ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Yuanyou XU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Jian ZHU
China Cancer 2025;34(6):471-476
[Purpose]To analyze the incidence trend and age,period,cohort effects of brain and other central nervous system tumors(brain tumor)in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The incidence data of brain tumor from 1972 to 2021 were collected from the Qidong cancer registry database.The crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized rate by Chi-nese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.The age-period-cohort(APC)model was used to analyze the age,period,and cohort effects of brain tumor incidence in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021.[Results]A total of 2 801 cases of brain tumor occurred in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021,including 1 475 male cases and 1 326 female cases.From 1972-1976 to 2017-2021,the CR increased from 1.81/10 5 to 9.28/10 5,the ASRC increased from 2.07/10 5 to 4.96/10 5,and ASRW increased from 2.00/105 to 4.98/105.From 1972 to 2021 the AAPC of CR,ASRC and ASRW were 3.97%(3.53%for male and 4.37%for female),2.02%(1.66%for male and 2.24%for female)and 2.06%(1.63%for male and 2.24%for female)(all P<0.001).The Wald's Chi-square test of the APC model showed that there were significant differences in the trends of age,period and birth cohort effect of brain tumor risk(all P<0.05).The age effect showed that the incidence of brain tumor increased with age,starting from the age group of 45~49 years old and reaching a peak of 25.84/10 5 in age group of 75~79 years old(95%CI:21.17/10 5~31.53/10 5).The period ef-fect showed that the risk of recent period was higher than that in the early period using 1992-1996 period as the reference,reaching the highest in 2012-2016(RR=1.64,95%CI:1.38~1.95).The birth cohort effect showed that the highest risk was in 2017-2021 births cohort(RR=11.17,95%CI:4.26~29.26)using 1952-1956 birth cohort as the reference.[Conclusion]The incidence of brain tumor in Qidong City has been rising;and age,period and cohort are the main influencing factors,suggesting that the middle-aged and elderly population should be the focus of brain tumor prevention and control.
4.Trend of Incidence Rates of Gallbladder Cancer in Qi-dong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021
Yuanyou XU ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yongfeng YAN ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU
China Cancer 2025;34(4):290-296
[Purpose]To analyze the trend of incidence rates of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The incidence data of gallbladder cancer from 1972 to 2021 were collected from the Qidong Tumour Registry database,the crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW)of gallbladder cancer were calculated.Trend analysis was per-formed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of gallbladder cancer incidence rates,and time trend analysis was performed on the overall inci-dence rate by sex and age.[Results]A total of 1 369 cases of gallbladder cancer occurred in Qi-dong City from 1972 to 2021,accounting for 0.93%of all malignant tumors.The overall CR of gallbladder cancer was 2.44/105 in 50 years,ASRC was 0.88/105 and ASRW was 1.45/105.The truncated rate of 35~64 years old was 1.98/105,the cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer at 0~74 years old was 0.16%,and the risk of cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer was 0.16%.CR was slightly higher in women than that in men,but after standardization it was slightly higher in men than that in women.The sex ratio of CR,ASRC and ASRW was 0.89,1.07 and 1.06,respectively.With the increase of age,the incidence of gallbladder cancer was also increased.The age of onset was slightly increased in last 50 years.In last 50 years,there was an upward trend in the overall incidence of gallbladder cancer,the incidence both for men and women,and the inci-dence of each age group.[Conclusion]The incidence of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City has increased considerably during the past 50 years,and continuing attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of gallbladder cancer especially for the key populations.
5.Analysis of Survival Rate of Breast Cancer from 1972 to 2019 and Prediction for Next 10 Years in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province
Junlei WANG ; Jun WANG ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Yuanyou XU ; Lulu DING ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU ; Qichao NI
China Cancer 2025;34(4):304-310
[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of breast cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2019 and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.[Methods]The data of breast cancer collected from Qidong Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2019 were extracted.Observed survival rate(OSR),relative survival rate(RSR),age-adjusted relative survival(ARS)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer were calculated.ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate.[Results]The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30%during 1972-1977 to 89.01%during 2014-2019,and the uptrend of RSR in the 8 periods was statistically significant(P<0.001).The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12%during 1972-1977 to 85.64%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.85%(t=10.113,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR during 1972-2019 for males was 85.22%,and for females was 74.51%.For females,the 5-year RSR in-creased from 56.44%during 1972-1977 to 88.93%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.29%(t=13.087,P<0.001),and the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14%during 1972-1977 to 85.23%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.90%(t=10.369,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR in the age groups of 25~34,35~44,45~54,55~64,65~74,and over 75 years old were 66.91%,74.69%,76.97%,75.52%,73.44%and 66.40%,respectively;the corresponding AAPCs of 5-RSR in above age groups were 1.02%(t=3.816,P=0.009),1.03%(t=4.936,P=0.003),1.23%(t=5.826,P=0.001),1.86%(t=5.997,P=0.001),2.13%(t=10.245,P<0.001),and 1.44%(t=6.405,P=0.001),respectively.ARIMA modeling of survival trend prediction showed that 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer will be ascended to 98.76%and 98.33%by 2028,respectively.[Conclusion]The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved and will be further improved in the future,more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.
6.Analysis of the correlation and consistency between POCT whole blood and conventional plasma/serum testing for DDI,PCT and NT-proBNP
Meng YANG ; Qiongyun LIANG ; Yongji LING ; Yinjuan MO ; Zhiqiang ZHU ; Yanli LV ; Yi ZHANG ; Xixia DING ; Yonghui GUO
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(8):1232-1237
Objective To assess the accuracy and consistency of point-of-care testing(POCT)technology in detecting D-dimer(DDI),Procalcitonin(PCT),and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)in whole blood samples,as well as to validate its feasibility for rapid clinical diagnosis.Methods From July 8 to August 22,2022,a total of 104 paired DDI whole blood and plasma samples,496 paired PCT whole blood and serum samples,and 77 paired NT-proBNP whole blood and serum samples were collected.The consistency and accuracy of test results between whole blood and plasma/serum samples were assessed using the Mann-Whitney U test,regression analysis,relative sensitivity,relative specificity,Youden's index,and Kappa value.Results The test results of DDI,PCT,and NT-proBNP in whole blood and plasma/serum samples demonstrated excellent consistency,with correlation coefficients of r2=0.951 2,r2=0.942 8,and r2=0.991 6,respectively,and all P-values exceeding 0.05.At the medical decision levels,for DDI(0.55 μg/mL),the relative sensitivity,rela-tive specificity,Youden index,and Kappa value were 94.3%,94.1%,0.88,and 0.87,respectively.For PCT(0.5 ng/mL and 2.0 ng/mL),the relative sensitivities were 97.4%and 89.0%,the relative specificities were 95.8%and 98.3%,the Youden indices were 0.93 and 0.87,and the Kappa values were 0.93 and 0.89,respectively.For NT-proBNP(125 pg/mL),the relative sensitivity was 94.1%,the relative specificity was 100%,the Youden index was 0.94,and the Kappa value was 0.87.These findings confirm the high accuracy of whole blood sample testing and the strong concordance between the two methods.Conclusions This study confirmed the efficacy of POCT technology for detecting DDI,PCT,and NT-proBNP in whole blood samples.The results showed a high level of consistency compared to traditional plasma/serum methods,thereby reinforcing the clinical applicability of POCT for rapid diagnosis.
7.Analysis of the correlation and consistency between POCT whole blood and conventional plasma/serum testing for DDI,PCT and NT-proBNP
Meng YANG ; Qiongyun LIANG ; Yongji LING ; Yinjuan MO ; Zhiqiang ZHU ; Yanli LV ; Yi ZHANG ; Xixia DING ; Yonghui GUO
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(8):1232-1237
Objective To assess the accuracy and consistency of point-of-care testing(POCT)technology in detecting D-dimer(DDI),Procalcitonin(PCT),and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)in whole blood samples,as well as to validate its feasibility for rapid clinical diagnosis.Methods From July 8 to August 22,2022,a total of 104 paired DDI whole blood and plasma samples,496 paired PCT whole blood and serum samples,and 77 paired NT-proBNP whole blood and serum samples were collected.The consistency and accuracy of test results between whole blood and plasma/serum samples were assessed using the Mann-Whitney U test,regression analysis,relative sensitivity,relative specificity,Youden's index,and Kappa value.Results The test results of DDI,PCT,and NT-proBNP in whole blood and plasma/serum samples demonstrated excellent consistency,with correlation coefficients of r2=0.951 2,r2=0.942 8,and r2=0.991 6,respectively,and all P-values exceeding 0.05.At the medical decision levels,for DDI(0.55 μg/mL),the relative sensitivity,rela-tive specificity,Youden index,and Kappa value were 94.3%,94.1%,0.88,and 0.87,respectively.For PCT(0.5 ng/mL and 2.0 ng/mL),the relative sensitivities were 97.4%and 89.0%,the relative specificities were 95.8%and 98.3%,the Youden indices were 0.93 and 0.87,and the Kappa values were 0.93 and 0.89,respectively.For NT-proBNP(125 pg/mL),the relative sensitivity was 94.1%,the relative specificity was 100%,the Youden index was 0.94,and the Kappa value was 0.87.These findings confirm the high accuracy of whole blood sample testing and the strong concordance between the two methods.Conclusions This study confirmed the efficacy of POCT technology for detecting DDI,PCT,and NT-proBNP in whole blood samples.The results showed a high level of consistency compared to traditional plasma/serum methods,thereby reinforcing the clinical applicability of POCT for rapid diagnosis.
8.Trend of Incidence Rates of Gallbladder Cancer in Qi-dong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021
Yuanyou XU ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yongfeng YAN ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU
China Cancer 2025;34(4):290-296
[Purpose]To analyze the trend of incidence rates of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The incidence data of gallbladder cancer from 1972 to 2021 were collected from the Qidong Tumour Registry database,the crude incidence rate(CR),age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW)of gallbladder cancer were calculated.Trend analysis was per-formed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of gallbladder cancer incidence rates,and time trend analysis was performed on the overall inci-dence rate by sex and age.[Results]A total of 1 369 cases of gallbladder cancer occurred in Qi-dong City from 1972 to 2021,accounting for 0.93%of all malignant tumors.The overall CR of gallbladder cancer was 2.44/105 in 50 years,ASRC was 0.88/105 and ASRW was 1.45/105.The truncated rate of 35~64 years old was 1.98/105,the cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer at 0~74 years old was 0.16%,and the risk of cumulative incidence of gallbladder cancer was 0.16%.CR was slightly higher in women than that in men,but after standardization it was slightly higher in men than that in women.The sex ratio of CR,ASRC and ASRW was 0.89,1.07 and 1.06,respectively.With the increase of age,the incidence of gallbladder cancer was also increased.The age of onset was slightly increased in last 50 years.In last 50 years,there was an upward trend in the overall incidence of gallbladder cancer,the incidence both for men and women,and the inci-dence of each age group.[Conclusion]The incidence of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City has increased considerably during the past 50 years,and continuing attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of gallbladder cancer especially for the key populations.
9.Analysis of Survival Rate of Breast Cancer from 1972 to 2019 and Prediction for Next 10 Years in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province
Junlei WANG ; Jun WANG ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Yuanyou XU ; Lulu DING ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU ; Qichao NI
China Cancer 2025;34(4):304-310
[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of breast cancer in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2019 and to predict the trend in the next 10 years.[Methods]The data of breast cancer collected from Qidong Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2019 were extracted.Observed survival rate(OSR),relative survival rate(RSR),age-adjusted relative survival(ARS)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of breast cancer were calculated.ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate.[Results]The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30%during 1972-1977 to 89.01%during 2014-2019,and the uptrend of RSR in the 8 periods was statistically significant(P<0.001).The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12%during 1972-1977 to 85.64%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.85%(t=10.113,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR during 1972-2019 for males was 85.22%,and for females was 74.51%.For females,the 5-year RSR in-creased from 56.44%during 1972-1977 to 88.93%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.29%(t=13.087,P<0.001),and the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14%during 1972-1977 to 85.23%during 2014-2019 with an AAPC of 1.90%(t=10.369,P<0.001).The 5-year RSR in the age groups of 25~34,35~44,45~54,55~64,65~74,and over 75 years old were 66.91%,74.69%,76.97%,75.52%,73.44%and 66.40%,respectively;the corresponding AAPCs of 5-RSR in above age groups were 1.02%(t=3.816,P=0.009),1.03%(t=4.936,P=0.003),1.23%(t=5.826,P=0.001),1.86%(t=5.997,P=0.001),2.13%(t=10.245,P<0.001),and 1.44%(t=6.405,P=0.001),respectively.ARIMA modeling of survival trend prediction showed that 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer will be ascended to 98.76%and 98.33%by 2028,respectively.[Conclusion]The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved and will be further improved in the future,more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.
10.Analysis and prediction of the 50-year incidence trend of malignant tumors in the elderly of Qidong City
Mingbo JIANG ; Jian ZHU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian MAO
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(4):531-537
Objective:To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods:Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR), age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC), and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally, the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results:In Qidong City, a total of 87, 401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100, 000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1 056.33 per 100, 000 in 2017-2021.Specifically, the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100, 000 to 1 332.75 per 100, 000, while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100, 000 to 825.44 per 100, 000, with AAPC values of 1.16%, 0.94%, and 1.44% over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age, peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and those aged over 80 were 0.64%, 0.93%, 0.92%, 2.02%, and 2.44%, respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers, lung cancer, which ranked first, saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.In contrast, gastric cancer, ranked second, decreased from 216.23 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer, ranked third, fluctuated from 113.47 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer, ranked fourth, increased from 40.06 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021, while esophageal cancer, ranked fifth, decreased from 63.42 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 28.65 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.The AAPC values over 50 years for these cancers were 2.25%, -1.89%, 0.36%, 3.13%, and -1.86%, respectively(all P<0.05).Projections indicate that by 2031, the incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong will reach 1 253.84 per 100, 000, with estimates of 1 566.67 per 100, 000 for males and 983.14 per 100, 000 for females. Conclusions:The incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong City is increasing.Common types of cancer in this demographic include lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and esophageal cancer.Notably, lung cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer are on the rise and should be prioritized in cancer prevention and control efforts.

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