Liver cancer is a significant global disease burden with a major impact on population health,and it is one of the important concerns in terms of public health worldwide.Cancer risk prediction models can estimate an individual's absolute risk of developing cancer.Individual risk assessment allows targeted screening of high-risk populations,which is essential for primary and secondary cancer prevention.In this review,we examine existing epidemiological studies to explore key issues in the design,predictive variables,and performance of risk prediction models for liver cancer in the general population.The aim is to provide an important reference for the future development of highly comprehensive liver cancer risk prediction models.

Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P＜0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P＞0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P＜0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P＜0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.

Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P＜0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P＞0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P＜0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P＜0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.

Objective:To explore the efficiency of radial collateral artery perforator flap to reconstruct defects of thumb web contracture release.Methods:The data of patients with moderate to severe thumb web contracture treated with radial collateral artery perforator flap from September 2018 to September 2022 in Department of Orthopedics-Hand Microsurgery of Xiangya Hospital, Central South University were analyzed retrospectively. A skin flap with the radial collateral artery perforating point as the center and the line connecting the deltoid muscle insertion point and the apex of the humeral lateral condyle as the axis were designed before surgery. During the operation, the skin scar in the thumb web area was first removed, and the contracted tissues such as deep fascia and muscles were loosened. Then, a skin flap was harvested along the design line and transferred to the recipient site. After vascular and nerve anastomosis under a microscope, the incision was intermittently sutured and a drainage tube was placed. The blood flow of the flap and complication were monitored closely. In the last follow-up, the distance and angle of thumb web were observed; the appearance, sensory recovery (excellent, good, moderate, and poor) and the hand function (S0 level to S4 level represented feeling no recovery to complete recovery) were evaluated.Results:A total of 8 patients were included, including 7 males and 1 female, aged 23-56 years (average of 40.3 years old). The distance of thumb web was 20-38 mm (average 26.9 mm), and the angle was 22°-36° (average 27.4°) before surgery. Five hands were classified as severe thumb web contracture, and 3 hands were moderate. The sizes of perforator flap were from 5.5 cm×3.5 cm-13.0 cm×6.5 cm. Seven flaps survived uneventfully and venous congestion occurred in 1 flap. After exploration, the flap survived completely. Primary healing of wounds occurred in the donor and recipient areas. Postoperative follow-up ranged from 6 months to 2.5 years (average 13.6 months). In the last follow-up, the distance of thumb web was 48-63 mm (average 57.1 mm), and the angle was 40°-52° (average 44.8°) post-operation. Thumb web function evaluation: excellent in 5 cases and good in 3 cases. All patients were satisfied with the thumb web. Sensory recovered to S3 in 3 cases, S2 in 4 cases and S1 in 1 case. The donor site healed well, leaving scars. There was no radial nerve damage, and elbow joint movement was normal.Conclusion:The radial collateral artery perforator flap has reliable blood supply, relatively simple operation and the appearance and function of thumb web restored well postoperatively. The application of radial collateral artery perforator flap is an effective procedure to repair the thumb web contracture.

Objective:To explore the efficiency of radial collateral artery perforator flap to reconstruct defects of thumb web contracture release.Methods:The data of patients with moderate to severe thumb web contracture treated with radial collateral artery perforator flap from September 2018 to September 2022 in Department of Orthopedics-Hand Microsurgery of Xiangya Hospital, Central South University were analyzed retrospectively. A skin flap with the radial collateral artery perforating point as the center and the line connecting the deltoid muscle insertion point and the apex of the humeral lateral condyle as the axis were designed before surgery. During the operation, the skin scar in the thumb web area was first removed, and the contracted tissues such as deep fascia and muscles were loosened. Then, a skin flap was harvested along the design line and transferred to the recipient site. After vascular and nerve anastomosis under a microscope, the incision was intermittently sutured and a drainage tube was placed. The blood flow of the flap and complication were monitored closely. In the last follow-up, the distance and angle of thumb web were observed; the appearance, sensory recovery (excellent, good, moderate, and poor) and the hand function (S0 level to S4 level represented feeling no recovery to complete recovery) were evaluated.Results:A total of 8 patients were included, including 7 males and 1 female, aged 23-56 years (average of 40.3 years old). The distance of thumb web was 20-38 mm (average 26.9 mm), and the angle was 22°-36° (average 27.4°) before surgery. Five hands were classified as severe thumb web contracture, and 3 hands were moderate. The sizes of perforator flap were from 5.5 cm×3.5 cm-13.0 cm×6.5 cm. Seven flaps survived uneventfully and venous congestion occurred in 1 flap. After exploration, the flap survived completely. Primary healing of wounds occurred in the donor and recipient areas. Postoperative follow-up ranged from 6 months to 2.5 years (average 13.6 months). In the last follow-up, the distance of thumb web was 48-63 mm (average 57.1 mm), and the angle was 40°-52° (average 44.8°) post-operation. Thumb web function evaluation: excellent in 5 cases and good in 3 cases. All patients were satisfied with the thumb web. Sensory recovered to S3 in 3 cases, S2 in 4 cases and S1 in 1 case. The donor site healed well, leaving scars. There was no radial nerve damage, and elbow joint movement was normal.Conclusion:The radial collateral artery perforator flap has reliable blood supply, relatively simple operation and the appearance and function of thumb web restored well postoperatively. The application of radial collateral artery perforator flap is an effective procedure to repair the thumb web contracture.

Objective To compare the differences in gut microbiota between cirrhosis patients receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)and those not,and explore the relationship between TIPS surgery and gut microbiota in order to provide new ideas for improving the prognosis of cirrhosis patients after TIPS surgery based on gut microbiota.Methods Those who had received TIPS surgery previously were assigned into the operation group,and those without the surgery served as the control group.Their stool samples were collected for 16S rRNA sequencing,and the correlation between gut microbiota and clinical indicators was analyzed.Results There were no significant differences in gender,age,body mass index(BMI),etiology and other baseline data between the 2 groups(P＞0.05),but obvious differences were observed in clinical serological indicators between them,including INR,APTT,RBC and PT counts,and HGB,ALP,ALB,total bilirubin(TBIL),and URE levels(P＜0.05).No statistical difference in alpha diversity was observed between the operation group and the control group(P＞0.05),but beta diversity was obviously different(P＜0.01),among which Bacteroides was increased in the operation group(P＜0.01)and Bifidobacterium was increased in the control group(P＜0.05).The function prediction analysis of gut microbiota showed that the metabolism of D-glutamine and D-glutamate(P＜0.05)and biosynthesis with secondary bile acids(P＜0.05)were up-regulated in the operation group compared with the control group.Correlation analysis between clinical indicators and flora indicated that TBIL and direct bilirubin(DBIL)were significantly correlated with the metabolic pathways of Bacteroides and Secondary bile acids biosynthesis.Conclusion Characteristic changes in gut microbiota are found in cirrhosis patients with and without TIPS surgery.Bacteroides may be involved in the regulation of metabolism of bile acids and thus increase bilirubin level.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract carcinomas (BTCs) are relatively rare but lethal primary malignant tumors derived from the biliary tract system. The burden of BTCs varies according to sex, age, region, and country, but limited attention has been paid to the burden of BTCs. We sought to explore the up-to-date data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) and expand findings by accessing the demographic features of BTC disease burden. METHODS: Using the latest data from the GBD 2021, we evaluated and analyzed the distributions and patterns of BTC disease burden in various age groups, sexes, regions, and countries. RESULTS: The number of incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) tended to increase and peaked at 216,770 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 181,890-245,240), 171,960 (95% UI: 142,350-194,240), and 3,732,100 (95% UI: 3,102,900-4,317,000) person-years, respectively, in 2021. However, the average global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs shrunk by -11.46% (95% UI: -21.91 to 3.35%), -24.09% (95% UI: -33.19 to 16.88%), and -26.25% (95% UI: -35.53 to 18.36%), respectively, from 1990 to 2021. Meanwhile, the male/female ratio (male per 100 female) of incidence, deaths, and DALYs changed from 76.40, 75.41, and 74.72 to 86.89, 79.11, and 82.29, respectively. In 2021, the highest number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs occurred in East Asia. The top three highest incidences, deaths, and DALYs were observed in China, India, and Japan, and the highest ASRs were observed in Chile in 2021. Analysis of the Human Development Index along with disease burden estimates of BTCs also suggests that the burden of the disease is related to the level of comprehensive development of the society. CONCLUSION This study provided a comprehensive comparison of differences in the burden of disease across populations and over time, and further presented evidence concerning the formulation of prevention and control policies and etiologic studies for BTCs and proposed logical hypotheses to investigate.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Biliary Tract Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Aged, 80 and over ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cost of Illness

Cox proportional hazards regression model (Cox model) is the most commonly used multivariate approach in time-to-event data analysis. A vital issue in fitting Cox model is choosing the appropriate time scale related to the occurrence of the outcome events. However, few domestic studies have focused on selecting and applying time scales for Cox model in the analysis of cohort study data. This study briefly introduced and compared several time scales in the reports from literature; and used data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study to illustrate the impact of different time scales on data analysis results, using the association between central obesity and the risk of liver cancer as an example. On this basis, several suggestions on selecting time scales in Cox model are proposed to provide a reference for the analysis of cohort study data.

Objective:To investigate the feasibility and clinical effect of the computer assisted design of the lobulated perforator flap based on the descending branch of lateral circumflex femoral artery(d-LCFA) to reconstruct the soft tissue defects of heel.Methods:From October 2014 to November 2016, a computer assisted virtual technology was used to simulate the process of pre-operative design, isolation, and harvest of d-LCFA perforating flaps. This method was used to guide the design and harvest of the flap of d-LCFA in the repair of large-area soft tissue defects of the heel in all of the 5 patients. One patient received a combine flap of the d-LCFA flap and the perforating branch of the inferior abdominal artery flap(DIEPF). Heel appearance and function were reconstructed in phase I together with the repair of the defect. Donor site was directly sutured. The recovery effect was followed-up in the clinic.Results:The 3D visualised model of the vessels in the donor area for quadriceps artery was successfully established in all 5 patients, and the design and removal of the perforating flap were successfully guided. All the 10 flaps survived successfully in 5 patients, except 1 patient had a backflow disorder at the distal end of the inferior epigastric artery perforator flap, with partial necrosis and II grafting. After 6 to 12 months of follow-up(mean, 8.7 months), the flap showed good in colour and texture, with satisfactory heel appearance. The donor site was left with a linear scar.Conclusion:Computer assisted design technology can effectively help in the design of the polyfoliate perforator flap pedicled with d-LCFA, using this technique to assist the design and repair of large area soft tissue defect of heel could reconstruct the shape of heel in phase I and restore the function of the heel to the maximum extent.

Objective:To introduce a novel surgical technique for dissecting perforator vessels (orderly retrograde four-side dissection) in anterolateral thigh perforator flap (ALTPF) and explore its clinical outcome.Methods:Respective analysis of 94 patients who underwent reconstruction of soft tissue defects with ALTPF which were dissected by orderly retrograde four-side dissection between June, 2013 and December, 2016. After surgery, the survival of flaps, recovery in shape and function of the recipient sites, and the effect on shape and function of the donor sites were observed.Results:The size of ALTPF ranged from 7 cm×5 cm to 32 cm×10 cm. Ninety-four perforators were included in 94 ALTPF, which were 89 perforators of the descending branch of circumflex femoral lateral artery, 4 perforators of the transverse branch of circumflex femoral lateral artery and 1 perforator of femoral medial artery. The time for flap harvesting was 35-95(54.39±16.39) min. Success rate of perforator harvesting was 98.9%, only 1 perforator was injured and another encountered vasospasm during surgery. Three cases had vascular crisis after flap transfer with 2 venous crises and 1 artery crisis. All of the flaps completely survived except 1 that had a partial necrosis. The follow-up time was (12.91±9.17) months. No muscular weakness on donor sites was shown in all cases.Conclusion:Orderly retrograde four-side dissection of perforator vessels in the ALTPF has achieved less donor site morbidity, shorter surgical time and is safer than the traditional techniques. It is a reliable technique to harvest perforator flaps.