1.Extraction process optimization,component analysis and biological activity evaluation for total polyphenols from Conioselinum vaginatu
Jun-long WANG ; Hui-jie YAN ; Yong-gang LIN ; Zi-wei LI ; Wen-pan SHI ; Sheng-qi JIANG ; Bin WU ; Qin-ze GU
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(5):1449-1455
AIM To optimize the extraction process for total polyphenols from Conioselinum vaginatu(Spreng.)Thell.,make component analysis,and evaluate their anti-oxidant,hypoglycemic activities.METHODS The effects of ultrasound,enzymatic hydrolysis,acid hydrolysis,alcohol extraction and hydrolysis processes on the extraction quantity of total polyphenols were investigated,respectively.With extraction temperature,extraction time,ethanol concetration and liquid-solid ratio as influencing factors,extraction quantity of total polyphenols as an evaluation index,the extraction process was optimized by response surface method.HPLC was adopted in the identification of polyphenolic composition and determination of their contents.Subsequently,total polyphenols' scavenging capacities on DPPH,ABTS,OH free radicals,total reducing power and inhibitory capacity on α-glucosidase were determined.RESULTS The highest extraction quantity of total polyphenols was observable when extraction process was employed.The optimal conditions were determined to be 62 ℃ for extraction temperature,54 min for extraction time,69%for ethanol concentration,and 50∶1 for liquid-solid ratio,the extraction quantity of total polyphenols was(9.51±0.2)mg GAE/g.Seven constituents existed in C.vaginatu,among which ferulic acid demonstrated the highest content,followed by that of myricetin,while D-tryptophan content was the lowest.At the concentration of 7.61 mg/L,total polyphenols displayed the scavenging rates on DPPH,ABTS,OH free radicals of 80.70%,85.97%,28.60%,total reducing power of 0.22,and inhibition rate on α-glucosidase of 77.23%,respectively.CONCLUSION This stable and reliable method can be used for the extraction of total polyphenols from C.vaginatum with strong anti-oxidant,hypoglycemic activities.
2.Experimental study on alternative method of local lymph node assay using bromodeoxyuridine with flow cytometry(LLNA:BrdU-FCM)for skin sensitization evaluation of cosmetics
Xiao-jun LYU ; Ju ZHANG ; Sen WU ; Xiao-ling XU ; Meng-ting SHI ; Jin-jing XU ; Wang-ping PAN ; Jia-te SHEN ; Kai-yong HE
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(4):793-799
Aim To establish and evaluate an alternative meth-od for detecting skin sensitization of cosmetics based on local lymph node assay using bromodeoxyuridine(BrdU)with flow cytometry(FCM).Methods(1)25%hexyl cinnamic alde-hyde(HCA)was chosen as a positive control with an acetone:olive oil(4∶1,V/V,AOO)mixture as a vehicle control for the experiment.The dorsal sides of both ears of mice were treated with test solutions on day 1,day 2,and day 3.Brdu solution was injected inter-peritoneally on day 5.On day 6,the bilateral ears and mandibular lymph nodes were excised,and the number of Brdu positive cells was measured by flow cytometry.The stim-ulation index(SI)was calculated to identify whether it was ≥3,in order to establish the method of LLNA:Brdu-FCM.(2)BrdU-FCM test was conducted using a blind method with the fif-teen reference substances listed in OECD TG429 whose skin sensitization potentials were known.The test substances were dissolved in AOO,N,N-dimethylformamide(DMF)or dimeth-yl sulfoxide(DMSO)at three different concentrations.Tests were performed the same as above.SI and EC2.7 were calculat-ed to evaluate whether the test substance was categorized as a skin sensitizer.The reliability and accuracy of the method were validated by comparing the classification of test substances with that in OECD TG429.Results The SI for 25%HCA was 3.9,showing positive in the skin sensitization test.It demonstrated that the LLNA:Brdu-FCM test method was properly implemen-ted.Nine test substances(2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene,4-pheny-lenediamine,cobalt chloride,2-mercaptobenzothiazole,hexyl-cinnamaldehyde,eugenol,phenyl benzoate,cinnamic alcohol,imidazolidinyl urea)were positive,and six test substances(methyl methacrylate,chlorobenzene,isopropanol,lactic acid,methyl salicylate,salicylic acid)were negative.The method was evaluated with sensitivity of 90%,specificity of 100%,positive prediction rate of 100%,negative prediction rate of 83%,false positive rate of 0%,false negative rate of 17%and accuracy of 93%.The LLNA:BrdU-FCM assay could correctly categorize the test substances that were skin sensitizers or non-sensitizers.Conclusion The LLNA:BrdU-FCM assay appears to be a relia-ble predictor of skin sensitization protential of chemicals,and it is expected to an alternative method for identifying skin sensitization as a supplementary in safety evaluation of cosmetic ingredient.
3.EIF5A2 promotes epithelial mesenchymal transition in intrahepatic chol-angiocarcinoma cells through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway
Shao-hua YANG ; Yong-ping XU ; Zhuo-yu ZHAO ; Shi-bo ZHANG ; Xing-bao FANG ; Zhou-jun LIAO
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(10):757-762
Objective:To investigate the the differential expression of EIF5A2 in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma cell lines RBE,HCCC9810,and HUCCT1,and its effects on HCCC9810 cell migration and invasion,epithelial mesenchymal transition,and PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.Methods:The differential expression of EIF5A2 in RBE,HCCC9810,and HUCCT1 cell lines was detected using WB method.The HCCC9810 cell line,with the highest expression of EIF5A2,was selected for this experiment.The expression of EIF5A2 in HCCC9810 cell line was silenced by transient transfection of small interfering RNA.The best silencing effect of small interfering RNA was screened by WB.Scratch assay and Tran-swell migration invasion assay were used to detect the effect of silencing EIF5A2 on the migration and invasion ability of HCCC9810 cells.WB was used to detect the effect of silencing EIF5A2 on PI3K/AKT signaling pathway and epithelial mesenchymal transition in HCCC9810 cells.Results:The WB results showed that EIF5A2 had the highest expression in the HCCC9810 cell line,and siRNA1 had the best silencing effect on EIF5A2 in the HCCC9810 cell line.Scratch assay and Transwell migration invasion assay results showed that silencing EIF5A2 in the HCCC9810 cell line resulted in a decrease in cell invasion and metastasis ability(P<0.05).At the same time,the expression of p-PI3K and p-AKT in the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway was significantly decreased(P<0.05),while the epithelial cell marker E-cadherin expression increased(P<0.05)and the stromal cell marker N-cadherin expression decreased(P<0.05).Conclusion:EIF5A2 may promote epi-thelial mesenchymal transition and enhance the migration and invasion ability of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma cells through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.
4.RODENT DENSITY IN THE GARRISONS OF LANZHOU CITY DURING 2014-2022
Jun GAN ; Jing ZUO ; Lin WANG ; Wei WANG ; Xing MENG ; Yong-Long ZHANG ; Qing-Ming SHI ; Xiao-Lei YE
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2025;32(1):34-38
Objective To investigate the density,species composition,and seasonal prevalence of domestic rodents in different habitats within Lanzhou garrisons,providing basic information for rodent prevention and control.Methods A total of 12 monitoring sites were sampled across urban,suburban,and rural residential areas from 2014 to 2022.Rodent density was monitored using the night-trapping method in the middle of odd-numbered months.Results From 2014 to 2022,346 domestic rodents were captured using 122 035 effective traps,with an average domestic rodent density of 0.28%.The highest domestic rodent density was 0.63%in 2016,and the lowest was 0.07%in 2020,showing significant differences across years,with an overall trend of initially decreasing and then increasing(χ2=136.555,P<0.001).The dominant species was Rattus norvegicus,accounting for 83.24%of the total rodents captured.Rattus norvegicus accounted for a relatively high proportion across different years,with a statistically significant difference in species composition(χ2=20.931,P<0.05).Rodent densities and species composition also varied significantly among the monitored habitats(P<0.001),with the highest densities observed in rural residential areas and the lowest in urban areas.Seasonal variation in rodent densities showed a bimodal pattern,with smaller peaks in January or March and a larger peak in July.Conclusions Domestic rodent density in Lanzhou garrisons has shown an upward trend in the past few years.Rodent control measures should focus on barracks in rural residential areas,with targeted interventions to reduce the risk of rodent-borne diseases.
5.EIF5A2 promotes epithelial mesenchymal transition in intrahepatic chol-angiocarcinoma cells through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway
Shao-hua YANG ; Yong-ping XU ; Zhuo-yu ZHAO ; Shi-bo ZHANG ; Xing-bao FANG ; Zhou-jun LIAO
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(10):757-762
Objective:To investigate the the differential expression of EIF5A2 in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma cell lines RBE,HCCC9810,and HUCCT1,and its effects on HCCC9810 cell migration and invasion,epithelial mesenchymal transition,and PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.Methods:The differential expression of EIF5A2 in RBE,HCCC9810,and HUCCT1 cell lines was detected using WB method.The HCCC9810 cell line,with the highest expression of EIF5A2,was selected for this experiment.The expression of EIF5A2 in HCCC9810 cell line was silenced by transient transfection of small interfering RNA.The best silencing effect of small interfering RNA was screened by WB.Scratch assay and Tran-swell migration invasion assay were used to detect the effect of silencing EIF5A2 on the migration and invasion ability of HCCC9810 cells.WB was used to detect the effect of silencing EIF5A2 on PI3K/AKT signaling pathway and epithelial mesenchymal transition in HCCC9810 cells.Results:The WB results showed that EIF5A2 had the highest expression in the HCCC9810 cell line,and siRNA1 had the best silencing effect on EIF5A2 in the HCCC9810 cell line.Scratch assay and Transwell migration invasion assay results showed that silencing EIF5A2 in the HCCC9810 cell line resulted in a decrease in cell invasion and metastasis ability(P<0.05).At the same time,the expression of p-PI3K and p-AKT in the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway was significantly decreased(P<0.05),while the epithelial cell marker E-cadherin expression increased(P<0.05)and the stromal cell marker N-cadherin expression decreased(P<0.05).Conclusion:EIF5A2 may promote epi-thelial mesenchymal transition and enhance the migration and invasion ability of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma cells through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.
6.Experimental study on alternative method of local lymph node assay using bromodeoxyuridine with flow cytometry(LLNA:BrdU-FCM)for skin sensitization evaluation of cosmetics
Xiao-jun LYU ; Ju ZHANG ; Sen WU ; Xiao-ling XU ; Meng-ting SHI ; Jin-jing XU ; Wang-ping PAN ; Jia-te SHEN ; Kai-yong HE
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(4):793-799
Aim To establish and evaluate an alternative meth-od for detecting skin sensitization of cosmetics based on local lymph node assay using bromodeoxyuridine(BrdU)with flow cytometry(FCM).Methods(1)25%hexyl cinnamic alde-hyde(HCA)was chosen as a positive control with an acetone:olive oil(4∶1,V/V,AOO)mixture as a vehicle control for the experiment.The dorsal sides of both ears of mice were treated with test solutions on day 1,day 2,and day 3.Brdu solution was injected inter-peritoneally on day 5.On day 6,the bilateral ears and mandibular lymph nodes were excised,and the number of Brdu positive cells was measured by flow cytometry.The stim-ulation index(SI)was calculated to identify whether it was ≥3,in order to establish the method of LLNA:Brdu-FCM.(2)BrdU-FCM test was conducted using a blind method with the fif-teen reference substances listed in OECD TG429 whose skin sensitization potentials were known.The test substances were dissolved in AOO,N,N-dimethylformamide(DMF)or dimeth-yl sulfoxide(DMSO)at three different concentrations.Tests were performed the same as above.SI and EC2.7 were calculat-ed to evaluate whether the test substance was categorized as a skin sensitizer.The reliability and accuracy of the method were validated by comparing the classification of test substances with that in OECD TG429.Results The SI for 25%HCA was 3.9,showing positive in the skin sensitization test.It demonstrated that the LLNA:Brdu-FCM test method was properly implemen-ted.Nine test substances(2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene,4-pheny-lenediamine,cobalt chloride,2-mercaptobenzothiazole,hexyl-cinnamaldehyde,eugenol,phenyl benzoate,cinnamic alcohol,imidazolidinyl urea)were positive,and six test substances(methyl methacrylate,chlorobenzene,isopropanol,lactic acid,methyl salicylate,salicylic acid)were negative.The method was evaluated with sensitivity of 90%,specificity of 100%,positive prediction rate of 100%,negative prediction rate of 83%,false positive rate of 0%,false negative rate of 17%and accuracy of 93%.The LLNA:BrdU-FCM assay could correctly categorize the test substances that were skin sensitizers or non-sensitizers.Conclusion The LLNA:BrdU-FCM assay appears to be a relia-ble predictor of skin sensitization protential of chemicals,and it is expected to an alternative method for identifying skin sensitization as a supplementary in safety evaluation of cosmetic ingredient.
7.Surgical efficacy evaluation of NF1-related dystrophic lumbosacral deformity: comparative analysis between pelvic and non-pelvic fixation
Song LI ; Zezhang ZHU ; Jie ZHOU ; Saihu MAO ; Shuqi SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Benlong SHI ; Xu SUN ; Jun QIAO ; Yong QIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(9):604-612
Objective:To analyze the selection of internal fixation methods, surgical outcomes, and complications in patients with Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) accompanied by dystrophic lumbosacral deformities, and to evaluate the indications for pelvic fixation.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 21 patients with NF1 and associated dystrophic lumbosacral malformations (L 4 to sacrum) who underwent spinal deformity correction surgery at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2009 to November 2022. The cohort included 11 males and 10 females, with a mean surgical age of 15.4±4.7 years (range, 7-24 years). Patients were divided into two groups based on whether pelvic fixation was performed: 10 patients in the non-pelvic fixation group (NP group) and 11 in the pelvic fixation group (P group), where fixation involved second sacral alar-iliac (S 2AI) screws or iliac screws. Radiographic parameters, including the Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve, main curve, and focal kyphosis, were compared preoperatively, postoperatively, and at the last follow-up. Results:The NP group had a significantly lower mean age (13.2±4.9 years) compared to the P group (17.5±3.5 years; t=2.287, P=0.034). Spinal instability (rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis) due to dystrophic changes was observed in 2 patients in the NP group and 8 in the P group, a statistically significant difference (χ 2=5.838, P=0.030). In the P group, five patients underwent unilateral fixation and six underwent bilateral fixation. Implant types included 2 cases with iliac screws, 1 case with iliac screws plus S 2AI, and 8 cases with S 2AI screws alone. The utilization rate of hooks was significantly higher in the NP group (12.6%±11.5%) compared to the P group (3.5%±6.9%; t=2.230, P=0.038). The preoperative Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve was significantly smaller in the NP group (13.8°±9.0°) than in the P group (25.5°±13.9°; t=2.228, P=0.039). Postoperatively, the angles were corrected to 6.3°±6.1° and 6.4°±5.3°, respectively ( t=0.901, P=0.969), with correction rates of 57.3%±13.6% and 74.1%±17.8% ( t=2.369, P=0.029). At final follow-up, the angles remained stable (6.6°±6.6° vs. 6.3°±4.8°; t=0.116, P=0.909). For the main curve, preoperative Cobb angles were 52.5°±15.1° (NP) and 61.1°±16.9° (P; t=1.200, P=0.246), corrected to 31.3°±13.8° and 28.0°±8.4°, respectively ( t=0.646, P=0.526). Correction rates were 41.3%±13.0% in the NP group and 53.2%±11.6% in the P group ( t=2.206, P=0.037). At the final follow-up, these values were 32.4°±14.2° and 31.7°±10.3° ( t=0.133, P=0.896). Focal kyphosis, seen in 9 patients, was corrected from 19.7°±10.9° preoperatively to -13.6°±9.5° postoperatively, and remained at -14.1°±9.6° at the final follow-up ( F=33.547, P<0.001). Multi-rod systems were used in 6 cases (NP group) and 7 cases (P group), with no significant difference (χ 2=0.153, P=0.926). Two patients in the NP group developed coronal decompensation three years postoperatively, and one required revision surgery. In the P group, rod breakage occurred in 3 patients, two of whom underwent revision. Conclusions:Dystrophic rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis of the lumbosacral spine is a primary indication for pelvic fixation in patients with NF1-associated deformities. However, complications related to internal fixation remain common. The combined use of a multi-rod screw-hook hybrid system, particularly when extending across the lumbosacral region, may reduce the risk of instrumentation failure.
8.Development of a visualizable machine learning model for mechanical complication risk in adult spinal deformity surgery
Jie LI ; Zhen TIAN ; Zhong HE ; Xiaodong QIN ; Jun QIAO ; Saihu MAO ; Benlong SHI ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU ; Zhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(17):1137-1146
Objective:To predict mechanical complications (MC) following spinal deformity surgery for adult spine deformity (ASD) using machine learning models, identify key risk factors, and develop a visualizable tool for individualized risk assessment.Methods:Clinical and radiological data from 525 patients with ASD who underwent surgery in our hospital between January 2017 and December 2021 were collected. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set (70%) and a test set (30%) for model development. The cohort included 88 males and 437 females, with a mean age of 42.2±18.1 years. Variables included demographic data, comorbidities, local and systemic radiological parameters, paraspinal muscle fat infiltration (FI), and vertebral bone quality (VBQ) scores. Multiple machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Light GBM, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost (XGB), and Logistic Regression (LR) were trained and evaluated. Model performance was compared using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and precision-recall curve (PRC). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was used to rank risk factors, while LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) was applied to visualize MC risk in individual cases.Results:Of the 525 patients, 135 (25.7%) developed postoperative MC. Among these, 80 (59.3%) experienced proximal junction kyphosis or failure (PJK/PJF), 7 (5.2%) had distal junction kyphosis or failure (DJK/DJF), 28 (20.7%) sustained rod fractures, and 29 (21.5%) showed significant loss of correction. In the validation cohort, the RF model achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC=0.80), followed by GNB (0.77), XGB (0.76), LR (0.74), LightGBM (0.73), and SVM (0.66). The RF model also demonstrated the best PRC value (0.58), highest sensitivity (0.65), and lowest Brier score (0.20). GNB, Light GBM, and LR models achieved the highest accuracy (0.78 each), while LightGBM exhibited the highest specificity (0.93). SHAP analysis identified higher preoperative VBQ scores, larger T 1 pelvic angle (TPA), and higher paraspinal muscle FI as the main risk factors for MC. Based on the RF model, a LIME-based tool was successfully constructed for individualized MC risk estimation. Conclusion:The RF model demonstrated the best overall predictive performance for MC. A machine learning-based prediction model has the potential to provide valuable guidance for surgical decision-making in ASD patients.
9.Surgical efficacy evaluation of NF1-related dystrophic lumbosacral deformity: comparative analysis between pelvic and non-pelvic fixation
Song LI ; Zezhang ZHU ; Jie ZHOU ; Saihu MAO ; Shuqi SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Benlong SHI ; Xu SUN ; Jun QIAO ; Yong QIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(9):604-612
Objective:To analyze the selection of internal fixation methods, surgical outcomes, and complications in patients with Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) accompanied by dystrophic lumbosacral deformities, and to evaluate the indications for pelvic fixation.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 21 patients with NF1 and associated dystrophic lumbosacral malformations (L 4 to sacrum) who underwent spinal deformity correction surgery at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2009 to November 2022. The cohort included 11 males and 10 females, with a mean surgical age of 15.4±4.7 years (range, 7-24 years). Patients were divided into two groups based on whether pelvic fixation was performed: 10 patients in the non-pelvic fixation group (NP group) and 11 in the pelvic fixation group (P group), where fixation involved second sacral alar-iliac (S 2AI) screws or iliac screws. Radiographic parameters, including the Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve, main curve, and focal kyphosis, were compared preoperatively, postoperatively, and at the last follow-up. Results:The NP group had a significantly lower mean age (13.2±4.9 years) compared to the P group (17.5±3.5 years; t=2.287, P=0.034). Spinal instability (rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis) due to dystrophic changes was observed in 2 patients in the NP group and 8 in the P group, a statistically significant difference (χ 2=5.838, P=0.030). In the P group, five patients underwent unilateral fixation and six underwent bilateral fixation. Implant types included 2 cases with iliac screws, 1 case with iliac screws plus S 2AI, and 8 cases with S 2AI screws alone. The utilization rate of hooks was significantly higher in the NP group (12.6%±11.5%) compared to the P group (3.5%±6.9%; t=2.230, P=0.038). The preoperative Cobb angle of the lumbosacral fractional curve was significantly smaller in the NP group (13.8°±9.0°) than in the P group (25.5°±13.9°; t=2.228, P=0.039). Postoperatively, the angles were corrected to 6.3°±6.1° and 6.4°±5.3°, respectively ( t=0.901, P=0.969), with correction rates of 57.3%±13.6% and 74.1%±17.8% ( t=2.369, P=0.029). At final follow-up, the angles remained stable (6.6°±6.6° vs. 6.3°±4.8°; t=0.116, P=0.909). For the main curve, preoperative Cobb angles were 52.5°±15.1° (NP) and 61.1°±16.9° (P; t=1.200, P=0.246), corrected to 31.3°±13.8° and 28.0°±8.4°, respectively ( t=0.646, P=0.526). Correction rates were 41.3%±13.0% in the NP group and 53.2%±11.6% in the P group ( t=2.206, P=0.037). At the final follow-up, these values were 32.4°±14.2° and 31.7°±10.3° ( t=0.133, P=0.896). Focal kyphosis, seen in 9 patients, was corrected from 19.7°±10.9° preoperatively to -13.6°±9.5° postoperatively, and remained at -14.1°±9.6° at the final follow-up ( F=33.547, P<0.001). Multi-rod systems were used in 6 cases (NP group) and 7 cases (P group), with no significant difference (χ 2=0.153, P=0.926). Two patients in the NP group developed coronal decompensation three years postoperatively, and one required revision surgery. In the P group, rod breakage occurred in 3 patients, two of whom underwent revision. Conclusions:Dystrophic rotational subluxation or spondylolisthesis of the lumbosacral spine is a primary indication for pelvic fixation in patients with NF1-associated deformities. However, complications related to internal fixation remain common. The combined use of a multi-rod screw-hook hybrid system, particularly when extending across the lumbosacral region, may reduce the risk of instrumentation failure.
10.Development of a visualizable machine learning model for mechanical complication risk in adult spinal deformity surgery
Jie LI ; Zhen TIAN ; Zhong HE ; Xiaodong QIN ; Jun QIAO ; Saihu MAO ; Benlong SHI ; Yong QIU ; Zezhang ZHU ; Zhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(17):1137-1146
Objective:To predict mechanical complications (MC) following spinal deformity surgery for adult spine deformity (ASD) using machine learning models, identify key risk factors, and develop a visualizable tool for individualized risk assessment.Methods:Clinical and radiological data from 525 patients with ASD who underwent surgery in our hospital between January 2017 and December 2021 were collected. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set (70%) and a test set (30%) for model development. The cohort included 88 males and 437 females, with a mean age of 42.2±18.1 years. Variables included demographic data, comorbidities, local and systemic radiological parameters, paraspinal muscle fat infiltration (FI), and vertebral bone quality (VBQ) scores. Multiple machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Light GBM, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost (XGB), and Logistic Regression (LR) were trained and evaluated. Model performance was compared using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and precision-recall curve (PRC). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was used to rank risk factors, while LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) was applied to visualize MC risk in individual cases.Results:Of the 525 patients, 135 (25.7%) developed postoperative MC. Among these, 80 (59.3%) experienced proximal junction kyphosis or failure (PJK/PJF), 7 (5.2%) had distal junction kyphosis or failure (DJK/DJF), 28 (20.7%) sustained rod fractures, and 29 (21.5%) showed significant loss of correction. In the validation cohort, the RF model achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC=0.80), followed by GNB (0.77), XGB (0.76), LR (0.74), LightGBM (0.73), and SVM (0.66). The RF model also demonstrated the best PRC value (0.58), highest sensitivity (0.65), and lowest Brier score (0.20). GNB, Light GBM, and LR models achieved the highest accuracy (0.78 each), while LightGBM exhibited the highest specificity (0.93). SHAP analysis identified higher preoperative VBQ scores, larger T 1 pelvic angle (TPA), and higher paraspinal muscle FI as the main risk factors for MC. Based on the RF model, a LIME-based tool was successfully constructed for individualized MC risk estimation. Conclusion:The RF model demonstrated the best overall predictive performance for MC. A machine learning-based prediction model has the potential to provide valuable guidance for surgical decision-making in ASD patients.

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