1.Influenza prediction and holiday effects analysis based on Prophet-LSTM model
Wenlin CHENG ; Junjun MAO ; Yizhe WANG ; Jiabing WU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):8-12
Objective To investigate the impact of holiday effects and prevention/control measures on the development characteristics and incidence trends of influenza in Hefei City using a Prophet-LSTM hybrid model, and to validate the applicability of the Prophet-LSTM model in influenza prediction by comparing the performance of different forecasting models. Methods Influenza incidence data from Hefei City (2016–2024) were collected to construct a Prophet-LSTM feature analysis and prediction model to analyze the impact of holiday effects and intervention measures on influenza incidence trends. Comparative models (ARIMA, GRU, and TimeGPT) were established and evaluated on the same test set. Results The data analysis revealed significantly increased influenza incidence during holidays (e.g., New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and National Day), while prevention and control measures led to declining trends. The Prophet-LSTM model demonstrated high consistency between the predicted and actual values, outperforming the comparative models with superior MAE (0.209), MSE (0.195), and IA (0.914), indicating higher prediction accuracy and trend-fitting capability. Conclusion The Prophet-LSTM model effectively captures spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza incidence, exhibits enhanced predictive performance when incorporating holiday effects and intervention measures, and demonstrates significant advantages and application value in influenza forecasting.
2.Exploration and thinking of online teaching of medical microbiology experiment
Mei QI ; Hong WANG ; Yabin ZHOU ; Juan LIU ; Wei TANG ; Yizhe CHENG ; Yundong SUN ; Wenjuan LI ; Shili LIU ; Weifang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Education Research 2023;22(4):528-531
Medical microbiology experiment is faced with many problems in online teaching. This study adopts the teaching mode of online live broadcast + operation video + virtual experiment, and make up the operation gap to some extent through operation video and virtual experiment. The mode of assessment is subjective thinking question (closely following the operation process) + experiment design + literature review (focusing on the key technology or new technology of clinical assessment that cannot be carried out due to the limitation of conditions in traditional experiments, such as mass spectrometry, fluorescence quantitative PCR, and G-test), and it is helpful to understand students' mastery of teaching objectives, and the ability of comprehensive application and innovative thinking. The student questionnaire shows that most students hold a positive attitude towards the online experimental teaching mode, and the quality of students' homework shows that most students have a good learning effect.
3.Multimodal imaging characteristics of fundus in patients with sympathetic ophthalmia
Yizhe CHENG ; Chengrui ZHANG ; Chunli CHEN ; Zhihan ZHANG ; Simeng HOU ; Xiaoyan PENG
Chinese Journal of Ocular Fundus Diseases 2022;38(5):359-365
Objective:To observe and analyze the multimodal imaging characteristics of fundus in patients with sympathetic ophthalmia (SO).Methods:A retrospective study. From October 2012 to December 2021, 28 patients (36 eyes) diagnosed SO in the Department of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital were inclued in the study. There were 19 males (25 eyes) and 9 females (11 eyes), with the mean age of 51.61±12.02 years. There were 8 exciting eyes and 28 sympathizing eyes. The time to onset after trauma or surgery was 46.10±107.98 months. All patients underwent examinations including vision test, color fundus photograph, optical coherence tomography (OCT), fundus fluorescence angiography (FFA), indocyanine green angiography (ICGA). Angio-OCT (OCTA) was performed on 3 eyes and fundus autofluorescence (AF) was performed on 8 eyes. The early and late phase were defined respectively as ≤2 months and >2 months. Their multimodal imaging characteristics were summarized.Results:In 8 exciting eyes, subretinal fibrosis with mutifocal retinal atrophy and pigmentation was noted in 5 eyes (62.50%, 5/8), the other 3 eyes showed sunset glow fundus (37.50%, 3/8). In 28 sympathizing eyes, in the early phase, the fundus photograph showed shallow retinal detachment with optic disc edema in 9 eyes (32.14%, 9/28); in the late phase, peripapillary yellowish-white subretinal lesions in 11 eyes (39.29%, 11/28). In the late course of the disease, there were yellow-white lesions around the optic disc (peridisc) and peripheral subretinal area in 11 eyes (39.29%, 11/28). Dalen-Fuchs nodules were found in 10 eyes (35.71%, 10/28). On OCT, multiple serous retinal detachment and irregular choroidal folds were noted in the early phase; hill-like subretinal hyperreflective elevation was noted in peripapillary area and subfovea with presence of cystic spaces in the intraretina in the late phase. FFA examination showed"pinpoint-like" strong fluorescence in the early stage, and "multi-lake-like" fluorescein accumulation and leakage in the late stage; "map-like" weak fluorescence around the disc in the early stage of the disease, dot-like strong fluorescence lesions in each quadrant of the peripheral retina, and fluorescence in the late stage of the disease course. enhanced. ICGA examination showed that the FFA strong fluorescence lesions in the middle and late stages were weak fluorescence. FAF examination, point-like strong and weak autofluorescence lesions with unclear boundaries. Nine sympathizing eyes with subretinal yellow-white lesions has vision without light-0.1 (significantly decreased vison), while 8 eyes with sunset glow fundus was 0.5-1.0 (mildly decreased vison).Conclusions:SO could not only show the semblable features of acute phases of Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada syndrome, but also the yellowish-white lesions in the peripapillary area, macula and periphery. Most of the eyes with peripapillary lesions has a significantly decreased vison, while the eyes with sunset glow fundus has a mildly decreased vison.
4.Radiological and clinical pathological analysis for primary leiomyosarcoma of bone
Xiaoying SHI ; Cuiping REN ; Jingliang CHENG ; Ying LI ; Beibei LI ; Yizhe FAN ; Xian REN
Journal of Practical Radiology 2014;(12):2035-2039
Objective To analyze the clinical,radiological and pathological features of primary leiomyosarcoma of bone and to im-prove the diagnostic level.Methods Totally 6 cases of PLB proved by pathology were collected in our study.The clinical,radiologi-cal and pathological findings were retrospectively analyzed,and combined with the relevant literature to have a comprehensive analy-sis.Results The lesions of 6 patients were solitary,located in femoral (1 case),distal femur (1 case),proximal tibia (2 cases),is-chium (1 case)and humerus (1 case).There was no periosteal reaction in all 6 cases but they all had soft tissue mass,sometimes there may have some mineralization within the tumor.Ill-defined osteolytic bone destruction was detected in 5 patients,while expan-sion of cystic bone destruction was found in the other 1 patients.3 cases had hardened edge,2 cases with adjacent bone cortical thickening.The MR imaging in 5 patients showed iso-intensity signal on T1 WI,a slightly inhomogeneously higher signal on T2 WI and a significant heterogeneously enhancement after injected of Gd-DTPA.Another 1 patient showed a double ring sign,the central area onT1 WI and T2 WI expressed heterogeneous slightly higher signal,the peripheral annular zone was iso-intensity on T1 WI and slightly higher on T2 WI,after injected contrast medium,it was inhomogeneous enhancement.In immunohistochemically,all tumors reacted positively with SMA,3 patients with Desmin and Vimentin positive,2 patients with Ki-67 positive,and there had some scat-tered cells with CD68 positive,but the S-100 were all negative.Conclusion The clinical,radiological and conventional histological manifestations of PLB are not specific.Immunohistochemical and/or ultrastructural analysis who displayed smooth muscle differenti-ation can confirm the diagnosis.


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