1.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
2.Isometric exercise reduces resting blood pressure:a meta-analysis of moderating factors and dose effects
Yang JIANG ; Hao PENG ; Yanping SONG ; Na YAO ; Yueyu SONG ; Xingxiao YIN ; Yanqi LI ; Qigang CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):975-986
OBJECTIVE:Elevated blood pressure increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases.Isometric exercise training has been shown to significantly reduce resting blood pressure,but the factors influencing its effectiveness remain unclear,and specific application guidelines are yet to be established.This study aims to evaluate the impact of isometric exercise training on resting blood pressure through meta-analysis,explore its moderating factors,and provide evidence-based recommendations based on its dose-response relationship.METHODS:Following the PRISMA guidelines,a systematic search was conducted in PubMed,Embase,Cochrane Library,Scopus,and Web of Science databases using keywords"Isometric exercise training,""Systolic blood pressure,"and"Diastolic blood pressure,"covering literature up to September 2024.Randomized controlled trials involving isometric exercise training and resting blood pressure were included.Three independent researchers performed literature screening and data extraction,assessing bias risk and quality grades using the Risk of Bias 2.0 tool and GRADE framework.Main effect pooling,publication bias assessment,subgroup,and regression analysis were conducted using R software(version 4.3.4).RESULTS:A total of 28 articles(comprising 32 randomized controlled trials)involving 977 participants were included.(1)Meta-analysis results indicated that isometric exercise training significantly reduced resting systolic blood pressure(MD=-8.01,95%CI=-9.22 to-6.80,P<0.01,I2=18.20%,low evidence grade)and diastolic blood pressure(MD=-3.46,95%CI=-4.64 to-2.28,P<0.01,I2=0%,moderate evidence grade)compared to no exercise.(2)Subgroup analysis results revealed significant influences of gender,health status,exercise modality,frequency,intensity,duration,sets per session,rest duration,and baseline blood pressure on the main effects for both systolic(P<0.01)and diastolic blood pressure(P<0.05).(3)Regression analysis results did not show any significant influencing factors,but body mass index(β=-4.11,P=0.091)showed a significant negative trend on the main effect for systolic blood pressure.(4)No significant publication bias was observed in the meta-analysis results(P>0.05).CONCLUSION:(1)Isometric exercise training significantly lowers systolic(low evidence grade)and diastolic(moderate evidence grade)blood pressure with clinically meaningful thresholds.(2)Participant characteristics(gender,health status,baseline blood pressure,and body mass index)and isometric exercise training protocols(modality,frequency,intensity,duration,cycle,sets per session,and rest duration)influence its antihypertensive effects.(3)The article recommends the optimal blood pressure management prescription:three sessions per week,with four sets per session,each set lasting 2 minutes with a 2-minute rest,at an intensity of 95%HRpeak using isometric wall squat exercises;the intervention period can be adjusted around a 6-week node.Future high-quality research is urgently needed to further validate and support these conclusions.
3.Effect of carbamide peroxide and hydrogen peroxide bleaching agents on laser-induced fluorescence in dentin Raman spectroscopy
Ruiqiang LI ; Chen YIN ; Yan MA
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):296-302
BACKGROUND:Hydrogen peroxide-based bleach is widely used in clinical tooth whitening treatment,but its mechanism of action has not been uniformly determined so far.OBJECTIVE:To examine the effects of two bleaching agents,neutral 10%carbamide peroxide and neutral 40%hydrogen peroxide,on teeth and explore the mechanism of teeth whitening.METHODS:Forty-five discarded teeth extracted for orthodontic treatment were collected,and the dentin sections were made and polished.After removing the smear layer,they were randomly divided into three groups.The control group(n=15)was placed in deionized water;the carbamide peroxide group(n=15)was placed in a neutral 10%carbamide peroxide solution,and the hydrogen peroxide group(n=15)was placed in a neutral 40%hydrogen peroxide solution.The treatment was continued for 6 hours every day for 1 week.The Raman absolute intensity and Raman relative intensity of the three groups of samples were detected by Raman spectrometer every day,and the fluorescence background intensity(the difference between the Raman absolute intensity and the Raman relative intensity)was calculated.The change trend of the amide peak of the three groups of samples every day was recorded by infrared spectrometer.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The relative Raman intensity of the three groups did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the control group did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the carbamide peroxide group showed a downward trend during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the hydrogen peroxide group decreased significantly during the 1-4 days of treatment and did not change significantly thereafter.(2)The peak areas of amide Ⅰ and amide Ⅲ did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment in the control group.The peak areas of amide Ⅰ and amide Ⅲ showed a downward trend during the 1-7 days of treatment in the carbamide peroxide group and the hydrogen peroxide group,and the downward trend was more obvious in the hydrogen peroxide group.(3)The results show that the change in the laser-induced fluorescence background intensity of dentin Raman spectroscopy may be derived from the non-collagen components in dentin,and under the action of whitening agents,it may have a certain adverse effect on tooth tissue.
4.Isometric exercise reduces resting blood pressure:a meta-analysis of moderating factors and dose effects
Yang JIANG ; Hao PENG ; Yanping SONG ; Na YAO ; Yueyu SONG ; Xingxiao YIN ; Yanqi LI ; Qigang CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):975-986
OBJECTIVE:Elevated blood pressure increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases.Isometric exercise training has been shown to significantly reduce resting blood pressure,but the factors influencing its effectiveness remain unclear,and specific application guidelines are yet to be established.This study aims to evaluate the impact of isometric exercise training on resting blood pressure through meta-analysis,explore its moderating factors,and provide evidence-based recommendations based on its dose-response relationship.METHODS:Following the PRISMA guidelines,a systematic search was conducted in PubMed,Embase,Cochrane Library,Scopus,and Web of Science databases using keywords"Isometric exercise training,""Systolic blood pressure,"and"Diastolic blood pressure,"covering literature up to September 2024.Randomized controlled trials involving isometric exercise training and resting blood pressure were included.Three independent researchers performed literature screening and data extraction,assessing bias risk and quality grades using the Risk of Bias 2.0 tool and GRADE framework.Main effect pooling,publication bias assessment,subgroup,and regression analysis were conducted using R software(version 4.3.4).RESULTS:A total of 28 articles(comprising 32 randomized controlled trials)involving 977 participants were included.(1)Meta-analysis results indicated that isometric exercise training significantly reduced resting systolic blood pressure(MD=-8.01,95%CI=-9.22 to-6.80,P<0.01,I2=18.20%,low evidence grade)and diastolic blood pressure(MD=-3.46,95%CI=-4.64 to-2.28,P<0.01,I2=0%,moderate evidence grade)compared to no exercise.(2)Subgroup analysis results revealed significant influences of gender,health status,exercise modality,frequency,intensity,duration,sets per session,rest duration,and baseline blood pressure on the main effects for both systolic(P<0.01)and diastolic blood pressure(P<0.05).(3)Regression analysis results did not show any significant influencing factors,but body mass index(β=-4.11,P=0.091)showed a significant negative trend on the main effect for systolic blood pressure.(4)No significant publication bias was observed in the meta-analysis results(P>0.05).CONCLUSION:(1)Isometric exercise training significantly lowers systolic(low evidence grade)and diastolic(moderate evidence grade)blood pressure with clinically meaningful thresholds.(2)Participant characteristics(gender,health status,baseline blood pressure,and body mass index)and isometric exercise training protocols(modality,frequency,intensity,duration,cycle,sets per session,and rest duration)influence its antihypertensive effects.(3)The article recommends the optimal blood pressure management prescription:three sessions per week,with four sets per session,each set lasting 2 minutes with a 2-minute rest,at an intensity of 95%HRpeak using isometric wall squat exercises;the intervention period can be adjusted around a 6-week node.Future high-quality research is urgently needed to further validate and support these conclusions.
5.Effect of carbamide peroxide and hydrogen peroxide bleaching agents on laser-induced fluorescence in dentin Raman spectroscopy
Ruiqiang LI ; Chen YIN ; Yan MA
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):296-302
BACKGROUND:Hydrogen peroxide-based bleach is widely used in clinical tooth whitening treatment,but its mechanism of action has not been uniformly determined so far.OBJECTIVE:To examine the effects of two bleaching agents,neutral 10%carbamide peroxide and neutral 40%hydrogen peroxide,on teeth and explore the mechanism of teeth whitening.METHODS:Forty-five discarded teeth extracted for orthodontic treatment were collected,and the dentin sections were made and polished.After removing the smear layer,they were randomly divided into three groups.The control group(n=15)was placed in deionized water;the carbamide peroxide group(n=15)was placed in a neutral 10%carbamide peroxide solution,and the hydrogen peroxide group(n=15)was placed in a neutral 40%hydrogen peroxide solution.The treatment was continued for 6 hours every day for 1 week.The Raman absolute intensity and Raman relative intensity of the three groups of samples were detected by Raman spectrometer every day,and the fluorescence background intensity(the difference between the Raman absolute intensity and the Raman relative intensity)was calculated.The change trend of the amide peak of the three groups of samples every day was recorded by infrared spectrometer.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The relative Raman intensity of the three groups did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the control group did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the carbamide peroxide group showed a downward trend during the 1-7 days of treatment.The fluorescence background intensity of the hydrogen peroxide group decreased significantly during the 1-4 days of treatment and did not change significantly thereafter.(2)The peak areas of amide Ⅰ and amide Ⅲ did not change significantly during the 1-7 days of treatment in the control group.The peak areas of amide Ⅰ and amide Ⅲ showed a downward trend during the 1-7 days of treatment in the carbamide peroxide group and the hydrogen peroxide group,and the downward trend was more obvious in the hydrogen peroxide group.(3)The results show that the change in the laser-induced fluorescence background intensity of dentin Raman spectroscopy may be derived from the non-collagen components in dentin,and under the action of whitening agents,it may have a certain adverse effect on tooth tissue.
6.Analysis of the application status of prescription pre-review systems in Yunnan province
Fan XU ; Wenjie YIN ; Kejia LI ; Zhengfu LI ; Jie CHEN ; Meixian WU ; Ruixiang CHEN ; Songmei LI ; Guowen ZHANG ; Te LI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):6-10
OBJECTIVE To investigate the application status of prescription pre-review systems in healthcare institutions of Yunnan province, evaluate their system functions and management capabilities, and provide a practical basis for promoting rational drug use. METHODS A questionnaire survey was conducted among public healthcare institutions at or above the secondary level in Yunnan province to investigate the deployment status of the systems. A capability maturity assessment framework was constructed, encompassing 6 dimensions and 39 indicators, including real-time prescription review, prescription correlation review, rule setting, evidence-based information support, prescription authority management, and system operation management. This framework was then used to evaluate the institutions that had implemented the pre-review systems. RESULTS A total of 100 valid questionnaires were collected, with 37 institutions having adopted prescription pre-review systems, mainly tertiary hospitals. The system predominantly adopted a modular architecture and was embedded into the hospital information system through application programming interfaces and middleware, providing certain capabilities for real-time prescription risk identification. Evaluation results indicated that basic functions such as reviewing indications, contraindications, and drug compatibility performed well, while deficiencies remained in functions related to parenteral nutrition prescription, review of drug dosage for specific diseases, individual patient characteristic recognition, and rule setting. Moreover, the construction of review centers and establishment of management systems were also not well-developed. CONCLUSIONS The overall application rate of prescription pre-review systems in Yunnan province remains low. System functions and management mechanisms require further improvement. It is recommended to enhance information infrastructure in lower-level institutions and explore regionally unified review models to promote standardized and intelligent development of prescription review practices.
7.Application of virtual reality technology in managing negative emotions and postoperative rehabilitation in perioperative patients from 2015 to 2025: a bibliometric analysis
Lijun DONG ; Shihao XU ; Qiuhua CHEN ; Lu ZHANG ; Xiaobing YIN
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2026;32(1):69-82
ObjectiveTo analyze the research status, hotspots and development trends in the application of virtual reality (VR) technology in managing negative emotions and postoperative rehabilitation of perioperative patients over the past decade. MethodsLiteratures related to the application of VR technology in managing negative emotions and postoperative rehabilitation of perioperative patients were retrieved from Web of Science Core Collection database and CNKI, covering the period from January, 2015 to August, 2025, and CiteSpace 6.3.R1 was used for bibliometric analysis. ResultsA total of 267 English literatures and 130 Chinese literatures were included, with the annual number of publications showing an upward trend. The United States was the country with the largest number of publications in English literatures, and Erasmus University Rotterdam was the institution with the largest number of publications. High-frequency keywords included virtual reality, pain, surgery, anxiety and distraction. Research hotspots mainly focused on functional exercise, negative emotions, pain management and multimodal intervention strategies. English researches were deepening towards virtual reality exposure therapy, mechanism exploration and personalized schemes, while Chinese researches focused more on the verification of rehabilitation effects. ConclusionResearches on the application of VR technology in the management of perioperative patients are rapidly developing, with research hotspots shifting from single technology application to multimodal and personalized integrated intervention. Future research should focus on exploring its intervention mechanisms, personalized schemes and the breadth of cross-departmental applications.
8.Association of vegetables and fruits intake with depressive symptoms in Yunnan multi ethnic first year junior high school students
CHEN Yiyao*, DU Yeming, YIN Wan, HUANG Jianhong, LIU Zihan, JIANG Yinghong, YU Qiaoying, PAN Lijuan, XU Honglü ;
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(1):32-36
Objective:
To explore the association of vegetables and fruits intake with depressive symptoms among multi ethnic first year junior high school students in Yunnan Province, so as to provide data support for preventing and reducing depressive symptoms among first year junior high school students.
Methods:
From October to December 2022, a cluster random sampling method was used to select 8 500 first year junior high school students from 11 ethnic minority areas in Yunnan Province (Fugong County, Longling County, Longyang District, Luchun County, Mojiang County, Nanjian County, Qiaojia County, Shuangjiang County, Tengchong City, Yuanmou County, Zhenyuan County), to investigate with a questionnaire. The Dietary Frequency Questionnaire was used to collect dietary behavior datas, and the Chinese version of Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21) was used to assess depressive symptoms. The generalized linear model was used to analyze the association of vegetable and fruit intake with depressive symptoms in students, and stratified analysis was performed according to ethnicity.
Results:
The detection rate of depressive symptoms among first year junior high school students in Yunnan Province was 29.5%. The detection rates of depressive symptoms in Han and minority first year junior high school students were 26.9% and 31.6%. After controlling for demographic variables such as gender, age, family residence and other confounding factors, the generalized linear model analysis results showed that the intake of leafy vegetables ( β= -0.07 , 95%CI =-0.12 to -0.01), flat fruits ( β=-0.06, 95%CI =-0.12 to -0.00) and hot natured fruits ( β=0.11, 95%CI = 0.04- 0.17) were associated with depressive symptoms in Han first year junior high school students (all P <0.05). The intake of melon and fruit vegetables ( β=-0.06, 95%CI =-0.11 to -0.01) and hot natured fruits ( β=0.06, 95%CI =0.01-0.12) were associated with depressive symptoms in ethnic minority first year junior high school students (both P <0.05).
Conclusions
The intake of vegetables and fruits among multi ethnic first year junior high school students in Yunnan Province is related to the risk of depressive symptoms. It is suggested to strengthen the consumption guidance and education of vegetables and fruits to prevent depressive symptoms among first year junior high school students.
9.Effect of Astragali Radix on Gut Microbiota and GLP-1 in Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Patients with Qi Deficiency Type
Keke HOU ; Lin CHEN ; Zhidan ZHANG ; Yunyi YANG ; Fangli ZHANG ; Yuanying XU ; Hongping YIN ; Lan DING ; Tao LEI ; Wenjun SHA
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(6):161-170
ObjectiveTo investigate the therapeutic effect of Astragali Radix-mediated changes in gut microbiota on treating type 2 diabetes (T2DM). MethodsA 12-week randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial enrolled eighty patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and poor glycemic control in the Qi deficiency type. All patients received insulin therapy. The observation group (40 cases) was administered with Astragali Radix Granules, while the control group (40 cases) received a placebo. Both treamtents were taken orally twice daily. Changes in gut microbiota were assessed by 16s rDNA sequencing. Serum glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) levels were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Glucose metabolism indicators including fasting blood glucose (FPG), 2-hour postprandial blood glucose (2 h PG),glycated albumin(GA), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) were evaluated. Pancreatic function was evaluated using fasting C-peptide (FCP), 2-hour postprandial C-peptide (2 h CP), and C-peptide area under the curve (AUCcp). Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome scores, clinical efficacy, and safety indicators were also observed. ResultsIn terms of glucose metabolism indicators, compared with the baseline, both groups exhibited significantly lower FPG, 2 h PG, GA and HbA1C (P<0.01),while FCP, 2 h CP and AUCcp were significantly higher (P<0.01). Compared with the control group after the treatment, the observation group showed significantly lower FPG, 2 h PG, GA and HbA1C(P<0.05, P<0.01),and significantly higher FCP, 2 h CP and AUCcp (P<0.05, P<0.01), indicating that Astragali Radix can improve glucose metabolism. In terms of the diversity of gut microbiota, no significant differences were detected in the Chao1, Shannon and Simpson indexes of the two groups compared with their respective baselines. However, compared with the post-treatment control group, the observation group demonstrated significant increases in the Chao1, Shannon and Simpson indexes (P<0.05, P<0.01). The β-diversity analysis showed significant separation in gut microbiota composition before and after treatment in both groups, indicating that Astragali Radix can significantly alter the structure and improve the diversity of gut microbiota. At the phylum level, compared with the baseline, both groups showed a significant increase in the relative abundance of Bacteroidota(P<0.01). The relative abundance of the potentially harmful phylum Proteobacteria was significantly lower in the observation Group after treatment (P<0.01). Compared with the post-treatment control group, the observation group had a significantly higher relative abundance of Bacteroidota(P<0.01). No significant difference was found in Firmicutes/Bacteroidota (F/B) ratio between the two groups after treatment, and other phyla showed no significant differences. At the genus level, compared with the baseline, the observation group exhibited a significant increase in Bacteroides (P<0.01) and a significant decrease in Escherichia-Shigella (P<0.01), whereas no significant difference was seen in the control group . Compared with the control group after treatment, the observation group after treatment had a significantly higher relative abundance of Bacteroides (P<0.01). No significant differences were seen in other genera. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) identified potential characteristics taxa: in the observation group, Bacteroidota at the phylum level and Bacteroides and Dubosiella at the genus level, in the control group, Proteobacteria at the phylum level as well as Barnesiella and Staphylococcus at the genus level. Correlation analysis based on a heatmap revealed that GLP-1 levels were positively correlated with Firmicutes, F/B ratio and Fusobacterium, and negatively correlated with Bacteroidota, Proteobacteria, Bacteroides and Escherichia-Shigella. In terms of clinical efficacy, compared with the control group, the total effective rate of the observation group was significantly higher (P<0.05). Compared with the baseline, the scores for shortness of breath, fatigue, weakness, spontaneous sweating and reluctance to speak significantly decreased in both groups (P<0.01). Compared with the control group after treatment, the score for weakness was significantly lower in the observation group (P<0.01),indicating that Astragali Radix could improve clinical symptoms and alleviate weakness symptoms. In terms of safety, compared with the baseline, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels significantly decreased in both groups (P<0.05,P<0.01),indicating that Astragali Radix did not induce any significant abnormalities in liver and kidney functions. ConclusionAstragali Radix demonstrates the potential to significantly improve the gut microbiota environment in patients of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes with Qi deficiency. The therapeutic effect may contribute to glycemic control, possibly mediated by an elevation in GLP-1 level. These findings may support its further clinical investigations and potential applications.
10.Establishment of a new predictive model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in liver cirrhosis based on clinical features
Wen GUO ; Xuyulin YANG ; Run GAO ; Yaxin CHEN ; Kun YIN ; Qian LI ; Manli CUI ; Mingxin ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):101-110
ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive, simple, and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects, and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count (RBC), cholinesterase (ChE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin (Alb), thrombin time (TT), portal vein trunk diameter, sequential therapy, and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a logistic model was established as logit(P)=-0.805-1.978×(RBC)+0.001×(ChE)-0.020×(ALP)-0.314×(Alb)+0.567×(TT)+0.428×(portal vein trunk diameter)-2.303×[sequential therapy (yes=1, no=0)]-2.368×[primary prevention (yes=1, no=0)]. The logistic model (AUC=0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893—0.964, P<0.001) had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score (AUC=0.603, 95%CI: 0.520—0.687, P=0.003), Child-Pugh class (AUC=0.650, 95%CI: 0.578—0.722, P=0.001), and FIB-4 index (AUC=0.587, 95%CI: 0.503—0.671, P=0.045). The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607, a sensitivity of 0.817, and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy, implementation of primary prevention, an increase in RBC, and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding, while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.


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