1.Drug comprehensive value assessment frameworks for medical insurance:overseas experiences and implications for China
Yijun LIU ; Dan LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Bin JIANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):413-419
OBJECTIVE To systematically compare mature experiences of comprehensive drug value assessment in typical countries/regions and to provide decision-making references for China to establish a scientific and standardized comprehensive drug value assessment system for medical-insured drugs. METHODS The literature analysis was used to systematically review drug value assessment frameworks in 11 representative countries/regions, namely the UK, Canada, Italy, Australia, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, the United States, as well as Taiwan (China) and Hong Kong (China). Comparisons were made across three dimensions: assessment entities, value dimension, and application of results. RESULTS &CONCLUSIONS In most countries/regions, independent technical assessment institutions have been established as part of the drug value evaluation system, with the involvement of multiple stakeholders (e.g., the UK, Canada). The mainstream drug value assessment frameworks have generally transcended the traditional core dimensions of safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness, exhibiting two major trends: the continuous expansion of assessment dimensions and stricter evidence requirements. Assessment outcomes are closely integrated with payment policies, ranging from providing technical advice for decision-making (e.g., Italy, France) to directly determining reimbursement eligibility (e.g., the UK, Germany). The following recommendations are proposed for China: first, establish an evaluation mechanism featuring multi-stakeholder participation and separation of evaluation from decision-making. Second, develop a comprehensive evaluation framework integrating clinical, economic, patient, and societal value, emphasizing quantitative indicator exploration and real-world evidence application. Third, promote direct linkage between value-based tiering outcomes and medical insurance reimbursement decisions or access negotiations to balance patient benefits, fund sustainability, and industrial innovation.
2.Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervention in Parkinson's Disease Based on Keap1/Nrf2/ARE Signaling Pathway: A Review
Liuping YUE ; Yongkang SUN ; Fangbiao XU ; Yanbo SONG ; Yijun WU ; Huan YU ; Xinzhi WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(9):307-317
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic progressive neurodegenerative disorder primarily characterized by motor dysfunction. The main pathological features include the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra, abnormal aggregation of alpha-Synuclein (α-Syn), and the formation of Lewy bodies. However, the exact mechanisms remain unclear. In recent years, the PD incidence has gradually increased, while current treatment methods are limited to symptom alleviation, incapable of halting disease progression, and prone to adverse effects, thus making it urgent to search for medicines effective for PD. Modern research indicates that the Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1 (Keap1)/nuclear factor E2 related factor 2 (Nrf2)/antioxidant response element (ARE) signaling pathway is closely related to oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, apoptosis, ferroptosis, and mitochondrial dysfunction, playing a crucial role in the pathophysiological development of PD. A large number of studies have further confirmed that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can regulate diseases through a holistic view of Syndrome differentiation and microscopic molecular pathways. With unique advantages, such as multiple targets, multiple pathways, and fewer adverse reactions, TCM provides a new strategy for PD treatment. This article elucidates the mechanism of the Keap1/Nrf2/ARE signaling pathway in the occurrence and development of PD, while summarizing the latest research on PD intervention by TCM monomers, active ingredients, and compounds, as well as acupuncture via the precise targeted regulation of the Keap1/Nrf2/ARE pathway, aiming to provide a reference for clinical medicine development to prevent and treat PD.
3.Analyses of the epidemiological characteristics of multiple pathogens in people aged 14 years and above with acute respiratory infection in Huangpu District of Shanghai from 2015 to 2024
Yun ZHANG ; Yinzi CHEN ; Zhenzi ZUO ; Yu WANG ; Fujie SHEN ; Yuliang HUANG ; Qiang GAO ; Chenyan JIANG ; Yijun WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):116-121
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of 8 major respiratory pathogens in influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with acute respiratory infections at fever clinics in Huangpu District, Shanghai from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of respiratory diseases. MethodsA retrospective study was conducted in Huangpu District. Individuals meeting the case definition of ILI from 2015 to 2024 was registered. Their nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for pathogen detection. A total of 8 respiratory viruses were tested, including Influenza A virus (Flu A), Influenza B virus (Flu B), adenovirus (ADV), enterovirus/human rhinovirus (EV/HRV), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV), human coronavirus (HCoV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and human metapneumovirus (HMPV). ResultsFrom 2015 to 2019, a total of 344 ILI cases were tested, of which 192 out of 344 cases (55.81%) were tested positive for single respiratory pathogen. From 2023 to 2024, 1 557 ILI cases were tested, with 572 out of 1 557 cases (36.74%) being positive for single pathogen. From 2023 to 2024, the positive rate of single pathogen in ILI cases was significantly lower than that in 2015‒2019 (χ2=42.66, P<0.001). Specifically, the positive rate of Flu A (χ2=74.43, P<0.001) decreased, while that of HPIV (χ2=8.66, P=0.003) increased, both with statistically significant differences. According to the seasonal pattern, the epidemic intensity of Flu A decreased in summer, while that of HPIV increased in summer and autumn. Demographic results showed statistically significant differences in the positive rates of EV/HRV between genders (χ2=22.38, P<0.001), with males exhibiting a higher positive rate than females. No statistically significant differences were identified in the positive rates of single pathogen among different age groups (χ2=4.42, P=0.110). Nevertheless, statistically significant differences were noted when comparing the positive rates of EV/HRV, Flu A, Flu B and HPIV across different age groups (P<0.05). EV/HRV was more commonly detected in the 15‒<25 age group (10.93%), while Flu A and HPIV had the highest positive rates in the ≥60 age group (21.24% and 4.77%). Flu B had the highest positive rate in the 25‒<60 age group (11.26%). 52.63% of cases with co-infections occurred during winter, with the primary pathogens involved being EV/HRV (9 cases) and HCoV (6 cases). The most prevalent combination of co-infection was Flu A with EV/HRV. ConclusionThe prevalence of respiratory pathogens among ILI cases from 2023 to 2024 exhibited notable fluctuations compared to that from 2015 to 2019. Therefore, influenza surveillance should be strengthened, and attention should also be paid to the prevalence of respiratory pathogens such as HPIV. These findings have profound implications for future research, surveillance, vaccine planning, and public health policy making.
4.Changes in the body shape and ergonomic compatibility for functional dimensions of desks and chairs for students in Harbin during 2010-2024
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):315-320
Objective:
To analyze the change trends in the body shape indicators and proportions of students in Harbin from 2010 to 2024, and to investigate ergonomic compatibility of functional dimensions of school desks and chairs with current student shape indicators, so as to provide a reference for revising furniture standards of desks and chairs.
Methods:
Between September and November of both 2010 and 2024, a combination of convenience sampling and stratified cluster random sampling was conducted across three districts in Harbin, yielding samples of 6 590 and 6 252 students, respectively. Anthropometric shape indicators cluding height, sitting height, crus length, and thigh length-and their proportional changes were compared over the 15-year period. The 2024 data were compared with current standard functional dimensions of school furniture. The statistical analysis incorporated t-test and Mann-Whitney U- test.
Results:
From 2010 to 2024, average height increased by 1.8 cm for boys and 1.5 cm for girls; sitting height increased by 1.5 cm for both genders; crus length increased by 0.3 cm for boys and 0.4 cm for girls; and thigh length increased by 0.5 cm for both genders. The ratios of sitting height to height, and sitting height to leg length increased by less than 0.1 . The difference between desk chair height and 1/3 sitting height ranged from 0.4-0.8 cm. Among students matched with size 0 desks and chairs, 22.0% had a desk to chair height difference less than 0, indicating that the desk to chair height difference might be insufficient for taller students. The differences between seat height and fibular height ranged from -1.4 to 1.1 cm; and the differences between seat depth and buttock popliteal length ranged from -9.8 to 3.4 cm. Among obese students, the differences between seat width and 1/2 hip circumference ranged from -20.5 to -8.7 cm, while it ranged from -12.2 to -3.8 cm among non obese students.
Conclusion
Current furniture standards basically satisfy hygienic requirements; however, in the case of exceptionally tall and obese students, ergonomic accommodations such as adaptive seating allocation or personalized adjustments are recommended to meet hygienic requirements.
5.Clinical Study of Xuefu Zhuyu Decoction in the Prevention and Treatment of Radiation-Induced Lung Fi-brosis in Esophageal Cancer Patients with Blood Stasis Type Underwent Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy
Yijun WANG ; Lejun CHEN ; Jing YAN ; Teng HUANG ; Juan HAN ; Qiuyun YU ; Dahai YU ; Mianhua WU
Journal of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;41(12):1657-1665
OBJECTIVE To observe the clinical efficacy of Xuefu Zhuyu Decoction(XFZY)in the prevention and treatment of radiation-induced lung fibrosis(RILF)in esophageal cancer patients with blood stasis type underwent concurrent chemoradiotherapy(CRT).METHODS A total of 130 esophageal cancer patients with blood stasis type who treated with concurrent CRT were randomly divided into an experimental group and a control group,with 65 cases in each group.No patients dropped out during the study period.Patients in both groups received CRT and standardized symptomatic treatment was given according to the condition if radiation-induced lung injury occurred during treatment.On the basis of the treatment of the control group,the patients in the experimental group received XFZY from the beginning day until 30 days after the completion of CRT.The TCM syndrome score of the two groups were compared before and after treatment.The incidence of acute radiation pneumonia(RP)and chronic RILF and changes in pulmo-nary function indicators[forced expiratory volume in the first second as a percentage of predicted value(FEV1%pred),forced vital ca-pacity(FVC),FVC as a percentage of predicted value(FVC%pred),FEV1/FVC ratio,and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity as a per-centage of predicted value(DLCO%pred)]and serum cytokine levels[interleukin-6(IL-6),tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α),hypoxia-inducible factor-1α(HIF-1α),vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF),and transforming growth factor β1(TGF-β1)]were compared at 6 months and 12 months after the completion of CRT.The occurrence of adverse reaction during treatment was recorded.RESULTS The total score of TCM syndrome of the two groups was significantly improved and the experimental group was better than that of the control group(P<0.01)after treatment.The efficacy of TCM syndrome was better in the experimental group than that of the control group(P<0.01).There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of acute RP between the two groups(P>0.05)at 6 months after the completion of CRT.The levels of lung function indicators FEV1%pred,FVC%pred,and DLCO%pred in the experimental group were higher than those in the control group(P<0.05),and the levels of various cytokines in the experimental group were lower than those in the control group(P<0.05).The incidence rate of chronic RILF in the experimental group was significantly lower than that of the control group(P<0.05)at 12 months after the completion of CRT.The DLCO%pred level in the experimental group was higher than that in the control group(P<0.01),and the levels of cytokines HIF-1α,VEGF,and TGF-β1 were lower than those in the control group(P<0.05,P<0.01).There was no serious adverse event observed in either group of patients during the treat-ment.CONCLUSION XFZY can effectively prevent and treat RILF in esophageal cancer patients with blood stasis type underwent CRT,reducing the loss to lung function caused by radiotherapy,and its mechanism may be related to downregulating the levels of cyto-kines of HIF-1α,VEGF,and TGF-β1.
6.Analysis of positioning error of within batch and between batches of HyperArc stereotactic radiotherapy for intracranial tumors
Nan LI ; Lang YU ; Xiansong SUN ; Huiying QU ; Yijun WANG ; Bo YANG ; Xin LIAN
China Medical Equipment 2025;22(2):15-19
Objective:Based on HyperArc stereotactic radiotherapy(SRT)technique,six-dimensional free bed combined with double mask fixation was used to treat intracranial tumors,and the positioning errors of within batch and between batches were analyzed,so as to provide basis for the accuracy of clinical treatment of this technique.Methods:A total of 13 patients with intracranial tumors who admitted to Peking Union Medical College Hospital from March to July 2023 were retrospectively selected,and they were treated by using HyperArc SRT technique.The validation images of cone-beam computed tomography(CBCT)of within batch and between batches during treatment were analyzed.The positioning errors of three translational direction[left and right(x),head and foot(y)and abdominal and dorsal(z)]and rotational direction were analyzed.The each positioning error was set as group A,and the remaining error after the positioning error was corrected through six-dimensional free bed was set as group B,and the error post treatment was set as group C.The difference between group B and group C was defined as the change of within batch.According to the margin formula,the positioning error of within batch was used to calculate the required range of margin.Results:Under the mode of six-dimensional free bed correction combined with double mask fixation,a total of 59 times of HyperArc SRT on head were performed.In the comparison of the average errors on the six-dimensional direction among groups A,B and C,the errors of group A on x direction and y direction were respectively(0.119±0.039)and(-0.133±0.047)cm,and the differences of them between group A and group B[(0.004±0.002)and(0.018±0.005)cm]were significant(t=2.890,-3.224,P<0.05).There were no significant differences on other directions between the two groups(P>0.05).The error of RX direction of group B was(0.033±0.021)°,and the difference of that between group B and group C[(0.122±0.045)°]was significant(t=-2.306,P<0.05),while there were no significant differences on other directions(P>0.05).In the margin of the design of the plan of intracranial tumors,the x,y and z directions were respectively 0.6,0.9 and 0.4 mm.Conclusion:In the radiotherapy of using HyperArc SRT technique for intracranial tumors,the use of six-dimensional free bed combined with double mask treatment can significantly shorten the margin,and ensure accurate irradiation for gross tumor volume(GTV)and simultaneously reduce the irradiation volume and dose of surrounding normal tissue.
7.The value of sequential organ failure assessment and its dynamic changes in predicting mortality in hematology intensive care unit
Jiajing WANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Bin ZHANG ; Yuncong CAO ; Yilin GUO ; Peiran YU ; Xiaoqing ZHANG ; Xiaojuan ZHANG ; Yijun SONG
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2025;46(1):31-38
Objective:To investigate the value of Sequential Organ Failure (SOFA) score and its dynamics (ΔSOFA) in predicting mortality in hematology care unit (HCU) .Methods:A retrospective clinical study was conducted on 79 critically ill hematologic patients admitted to the Center for Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, between May and June 2024. SOFA scores and ΔSOFA were calculated within 2 days before and after HCU admission. The predictive value of SOFA and ΔSOFA in mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Results:Among the 79 patients, the HCU mortality rate was 54.4%. The SOFA scores on days 1–3 (D1, D2, and D3) and ΔSOFA on day 1 (ΔD_1) of all patients, leukemia patients and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients were significantly higher in the death group compared with the non-death group (all P<0.05). ROC curve analysis revealed that the D_1, D_2, D_3 scores, and ΔD_1 significantly predicted mortality ( P<0.001), with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.786, 0.866, 0.901, and 0.843, respectively. The sensitivity values were 74.36%, 57.89%, 62.85%, and 86.84%, while specificity values were 70%, 100%, 100%, and 67.65%, respectively. In the HSCT group, the D_-1, D_1, D_2, D_ 3, scores and ΔD_1 were predictive of HCU mortality, with AUCs of 0.833, 0.794, 0.871, 0.846, and 0.795, respectively. Sensitivity values for these scores were 100%, 85.71%, 71.43%, 57.14%, and 57.14%, while specificity values were 73.33%, 70.59%, 91.33%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. In the leukemia group, the D_1, D_2, D_3 scores, and ΔD_1 were predictive of HCU mortality, with AUCs of 0.760, 0.829, 0.846, and 0.756, respectively. Sensitivity values were 71.43%, 78.57%, 53.85%, and 71.43%, while specificity values were 76.19%, 78.95%, 100%, and 63.16%, respectively. For all patients, the D_3 score exhibited the highest specificity, while the ΔD_1 demonstrated the highest sensitivity. For patients in both the HSCT and leukemia groups, the sensitivity and specificity values of the D_1 and D_3 scores exceeded those of the ΔD_1. Conclusion:For patients with hematologic critical illness, including leukemia and those undergoing HSCT hospitalized in the HCU, D_1, D_2, D_ 3 scores and ΔD_1 are significantly associated with HCU mortality.
8.The relationship between urinary arsenic methylation metabolic patterns and the transformation of skin keratinization and pigmentation abnormalities in population exposed to arsenic through drinking water
Xinye LI ; Zhiwei GUO ; Fan ZHAO ; Yuchen GUO ; Mengxin LI ; Lingling HE ; Zhen DI ; Wei SONG ; Kaiwen LIU ; Yu MA ; Yijun LIU ; Chang KONG ; Binggan WEI ; Zhongbing ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(6):439-444
Objective:To study the relationship between urinary arsenic methylation metabolism patterns and skin keratinization and pigmentation abnormalities in population exposed to arsenic through drinking water.Methods:Using a cross-sectional study method, a survey on endemic arsenic poisoning was conducted among permanent residents of drinking water endemic arsenic poisoning areas in Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2004 (before water improvement). In 2017 (after water improvement), 71 arsenic exposed individuals were followed up as survey subjects. According to the "Diagnosis of Endemic Arsenism" (WS/T 211-2015), the clinical grading of skin injuries (skin keratinization, pigmentation abnormalities) in the survey subjects was evaluated. Urine samples were collected for detection of arsenic methylation metabolite levels by high-performance liquid chromatography inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and calibrated with urinary creatinine. The changes and amplitudes of urinary arsenic methylation indicators before and after water improvement were calculated and analyzed according to the outcome of skin keratinization and pigmentation abnormalities which were divided into reduced, unchanged, and added groups.Results:(1) The changes in urinary total arsenic (TAs), inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethyl arsenic (MMA), and dimethyl arsenic (DMA) levels in different outcome groups of skin keratinization were compared, and the differences were statistically significant ( H = 9.08, 8.77, 9.28, 8.57, P < 0.05). The changes in urinary TAs, iAs, MMA, DMA levels, iAs percentage (iAs%), DMA percentage (DMA%), and primary methylation index (PMI) in different outcome groups of skin pigmentation abnormalities were compared, and the differences were statistically significant ( H = 8.04, 10.67, 8.29, 9.14, 6.30, 9.10, 7.20, P < 0.05). (2) The comparison of amplitudes in urinary TAs, iAs, MMA, and DMA levels in different outcome groups of skin keratinization showed statistically significant differences ( H = 6.92, 7.34, 6.66, 6.16, P < 0.05). The amplitudes in urinary iAs level, iAs%, DMA%, and PMI in different outcome groups of skin pigmentation abnormalities were compared, and the differences were statistically significant ( H = 7.94, 7.61, 9.95, 7.22, P < 0.05). Conclusion:The changes pattern of urinary TAs, iAs, MMA, DMA, iAs%, DMA%, and PMI in population exposed to arsenic through drinking water is related to the transformation of skin keratinization and pigmentation abnormalities.
9.Evaluation of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic similarity of recombinant human insulin in healthy Chinese volunteers by eug-lycemic clamp technology
Qian ZHANG ; Jingjing YANG ; Juan WU ; Qin ZHANG ; Huiling QIN ; Liang YU ; Yijun DU ; Wei HU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics 2025;30(3):385-391
AIM:To evaluate the pharmacokinet-ics(PK)and pharmacodynamics(PD)of two recom-binant human insulin injection by euglycemic clamp technology in healthy male subjects after a single subcutaneous injection.METHODS:We con-ducted a randomized,open-label,single dose,two period,crossover study.A total of 24 healthy male subjects were enrolled and randomized to receive single subcutaneous doses(0.2 U/kg)of the investi-gational products every period.The PK and PD characteristics were assessed by euglycemic clamp up to 14 hours after dosing.RESULTS:Euglycemic clamp technique was successfully established.C-peptide levels detected at each time point before and after administration indicated that endoge-nous insulin secretion was inhibited in the two groups after administration.The geometric mean ratio of Cmax and AUC0-tand 90%confidence interval(CI)of test preparation and reference preparation under fasting condition were in the range of 80.00%-125.00%.CONCLUSION:The human insulin produced by KP Biotech demonstrated similarity to the reference preparation Humulin? in PK and PD characteristics in healthy Chinese subjects.
10.Analysis of prognostic factors for esophageal cancer after radical resection and the applica-tion value of machine learning prediction model
Yue ZHAO ; Sijie ZHANG ; Haiming LI ; Yijun MA ; Zhan ZHANG ; Zhenyi LI ; Junjie LIU ; Hui TIAN ; Yu TIAN
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(10):1305-1317
Objective:To investigate the prognostic factors for esophageal cancer after radical resection and the application value of machine learning prediction model.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopatholigical data of 406 esophageal cancer patients who were admitted to Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2018 to March 2022 were collected. There were 357 males and 49 females, aged (64±8)years. All patients underwent radical resection of esophageal cancer. The 406 patients were randomly divided into a training set of 285 cases and a validation set of 121 cases at a 7∶3 ratio based on a random number table. The training set was used to construct prediction model, and the validation set was used to validate prediction model. Patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group based on risk scores. Observation indicators: (1) follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis; (2) construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data between groups was conducted using the rank sum test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and plot survival curve, and the Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Independent influencing factors were included, and data processing, machine learning model construction, and visualization were performed using R packages including random survival forest (RSF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression (LASSO-Cox), Cox proportional hazards model boosting (CoxBoost), survival support vector machine (survivalsvm), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), supervised principal component analysis (SuperPC), and Cox partial least squares regression (plsRcox). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn, and sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. The Delong test was used to assess the differences in AUC among different models in the training set, and the time-dependent ROC was used to compare the predictive performance of different models. Calibration curves were used to evaluate model accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate overall net benefit. Results:(1) Follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis. All 406 patients were followed up postoperatively for 28(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 86.5% and 40.9%, respectively. The 285 patients in the training set were followed up postoperatively for 30(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 85.1% and 35.5%, respectively. The 121 patients in the validation set were followed up postoperatively for 25(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 87.0% and 43.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in postoperative overall survival rate between the training set and the validation set ( χ2=3.20, P>0.05). Results of multivariate analysis showed that left thoracic surgical approach, preopera-tive neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia were independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival of 285 patients in the training set ( hazard ratio=1.466, 1.037, 1.482, 1.549, 5.268, 7.727, 22.202, 2.539, 2.686, 1.425, 95% confidence interval as 1.026-2.096, 1.003-1.073, 1.008-2.179, 1.105-2.170, 1.201-23.099, 1.833-32.576, 4.734-104.128, 1.577-4.087, 1.631-4.422, 1.018-1.994, P<0.05). (2) Construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival were included to construct RSF, GBM, LASSO-Cox, CoxBoost, survivalsvm, XGBoost, SuperPC, and plsRcox machine learning prediction models. Results of Delong test showed that there were significant differences in the AUC of RSF and GBM from the other six models ( P<0.05). Results of time-dependent ROC curve showed that all 8 machine learning predic-tion models had good discriminative ability in the training cohort, among which the RSF machine learning prediction model had the best predictive performance. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the training cohort, with high consistency with actual results. Results of decision curve analysis showed that within a threshold range of 0-0.80, the RSF machine learning prediction model provided a better overall net benefit. Further analysis showed that in the validation set, the AUC of RSF machine learning prediction model for postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival prediction were 0.786 (95% confidence interval as 0.609-0.962), 0.774 (95% confidence interval as 0.676-0.873), and 0.750 (95% confidence interval as 0.652-0.848), respectively. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postopera-tive 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the validation set, with high consistency with actual results. In the training set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score <11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 18.0 months and >36.0 months, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=73.30, P<0.05). In the validation set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score<11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 17.0 months and>36.0 months for the high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=35.20, P<0.05). Conclusions:Left thoracic surgical approach, preoperative neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia are independent risk factors affecting survival of esophageal cancer patients after radical resection. The RSF machine learning prediction model constructed based on these factors can effectively distinguish the survival prognosis of high-risk and low-risk patients.


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