1.Analysis of the incidence trend of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Guilian LAN ; Yichao GAN ; Zhenhua ZHU
Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 2025;09(5):417-423
Objective:To describe the incidence trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021, estimate age-period-cohort (APC) effects, and predict future trends.Methods:Data on elderly IBD incidence and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 2002 to 2021 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) evaluated ASIR trends. APC and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were used to analyze effects and predict incidence from 2022 to 2031. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by applying alternative hyperprior values (a=1, b=0.0005) to assess model stability.Results:From 2002 to 2021, ASIR increased from 0.186 per 100, 000 to 0.272 per 100, 000 (EAPC = 2.234%, 95% CI: 1.715%-2.756%). Age effects showed a downward-then-upward trend in males and a decline in females, with peak incidence at 60-<64 years. Period effects increased steadily in males, while females showed an initial rise followed by a decline. Cohort effects rose and then declined with successive birth cohorts. Projections suggest ASIR will continue to rise through 2031. Sensitivity analysis showed ASIR trends closely matched the main model, indicating robustness. Conclusion:The burden of IBD among older adults in China is increasing. Strengthened prevention, health education, and lifestyle promotion for those aged 60-<70 are recommended.
2.Analysis of the incidence trend of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Guilian LAN ; Yichao GAN ; Zhenhua ZHU
Chinese Journal of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 2025;09(5):417-423
Objective:To describe the incidence trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among the elderly in China from 2002 to 2021, estimate age-period-cohort (APC) effects, and predict future trends.Methods:Data on elderly IBD incidence and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 2002 to 2021 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) evaluated ASIR trends. APC and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were used to analyze effects and predict incidence from 2022 to 2031. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by applying alternative hyperprior values (a=1, b=0.0005) to assess model stability.Results:From 2002 to 2021, ASIR increased from 0.186 per 100, 000 to 0.272 per 100, 000 (EAPC = 2.234%, 95% CI: 1.715%-2.756%). Age effects showed a downward-then-upward trend in males and a decline in females, with peak incidence at 60-<64 years. Period effects increased steadily in males, while females showed an initial rise followed by a decline. Cohort effects rose and then declined with successive birth cohorts. Projections suggest ASIR will continue to rise through 2031. Sensitivity analysis showed ASIR trends closely matched the main model, indicating robustness. Conclusion:The burden of IBD among older adults in China is increasing. Strengthened prevention, health education, and lifestyle promotion for those aged 60-<70 are recommended.
3.Genome-wide CRISPR screening identifies critical role of phosphatase and tensin homologous(PTEN)in sensitivity of acute myeloid leukemia to chemotherapy
LIN LIMING ; TAO JINGJING ; MENG YING ; GAN YICHAO ; HE XIN ; LI SHU ; ZHANG JIAWEI ; GAO FEIQIONG ; XIN DIJIA ; WANG LUYAO ; FAN YILI ; CHEN BOXIAO ; LU ZHIMIN ; XU YANG
Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B 2024;25(8):700-710,中插5-中插6
Although significant progress has been made in the development of novel targeted drugs for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia(AML)in recent years,chemotherapy still remains the mainstay of treatment and the overall survival is poor in most patients.Here,we demonstrated the antileukemia activity of a novel small molecular compound NL101,which is formed through the modification on bendamustine with a suberanilohydroxamic acid(SAHA)radical.NL101 suppresses the proliferation of myeloid malignancy cells and primary AML cells.It induces DNA damage and caspase 3-mediated apoptosis.A genome-wide clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats(CRISPR)library screen revealed that phosphatase and tensin homologous(PTEN)gene is critical for the regulation of cell survival upon NL101 treatment.The knockout or inhibition of PTEN significantly reduced NL101-induced apoptosis in AML and myelodysplastic syndrome(MDS)cells,accompanied by the activation of protein kinase B(AKT)signaling pathway.The inhibition of mammalian target of rapamycin(mTOR)by rapamycin enhanced the sensitivity of AML cells to NL101-induced cell death.These findings uncover PTEN protein expression as a major determinant of chemosensitivity to NL101 and provide a novel strategy to treat AML with the combination of NL101 and rapamycin.

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