1.Effect of Ningying Formula (宁瘿方) Combined with Low-Dose Antithyroid Drugs on Reducing Relapse Risk for Patients with Graves' Hyperthyroidism in Remission Stage:A Retrospective Cohort Study
Yuqin HUANG ; Mingshuai ZHANG ; Shijian LIU ; Feng TAO ; Yi CHEN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(1):45-52
ObjectiveTo evaluate the effect of Ningying Formula (宁瘿方) combined with low-dose antithyroid drugs (ATDs) on the relapse risk for patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism (GH) during the remission phase, and to analyze the related factors between GH relapse and thyrotropin receptor antibody (TRAb) negativity, so as to provide evidence for the standardized management of GH in remission stage. MethodsA single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted, including 269 GH patients in the remission stage. After propensity score matching (PSM), 102 matched pairs (204 patients) were established. The control group received low-dose ATDs as maintenance therapy, while the exposure group received the core Ningying Formula in addition to low-dose ATDs. The primary outcome was the GH recurrence rate; the secondary outcome was the thyrotropin receptor antibody (TRAb) negativity rate (TRAb<1.75 IU/L). Safety outcomes included treatment-related adverse events. Differences between groups were assessed using Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves, with sensitivity analysis performed using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). ResultsThe median follow-up in the matched cohort was 28.07 months. Regarding the GH recurrence outcome, the recurrence rate in the exposure group (18/102, 17.6%) was significantly lower than that in the control group (31/102, 30.4%; χ²=4.539, P=0.033); regarding the TRAb negativity outcome, the TRAb negativity rate in the exposure group (50/102, 49.0%) was significantly higher than that in the control group (23/102, 22.5%; χ²=15.551, P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis for recurrence showed that Ningying Formula treatment reduced the risk of recurrence [HR=0.324, 95%CI(0.170, 0.617), P<0.001]. Male [HR=2.209, 95%CI(1.079, 4.520), P=0.030], higher initial TRAb level [per 1 IU/L increase: HR=1.033, 95%CI(1.003, 1.064), P=0.032], and larger thyroid volume [per 1 ml increase: HR=1.045, 95%CI(1.003, 1.088), P=0.035] were identified as independent risk factors for recurrence; multivariate Cox regression analysis for TRAb negativity indicated that Ningying Formula treatment promoted TRAb negativity [HR=1.826, 95%CI(1.091, 3.056), P=0.022], while a higher initial TRAb level was associated with a lower probability of negativity [HR=0.974, 95%CI(0.950, 0.998), P=0.032]. Survival analysis showed significant differences in relapse rate between groups (Log-Rank P=0.003) and in TRAb outcomes (Log-Rank P=0.034). The incidence of treatment-related adverse events was similar between groups (P=0.757). The IPTW sensitivity analysis was consistent with the primary analysis, indicating robust results. ConclusionThe Ningying Formula combined with low-dose ATDs can significantly reduce the risk of recurrence and can improve the TRAb negativity rate in GH patients during the remission stage, without increasing common adverse events, making it an optional strategy for reducing relapse risk during remission. Male gender, higher baseline TRAb level, and larger thyroid volume indicate a higher risk of recurrence, warranting focused follow-up and stratified management.
2.Expert consensus on neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitors for locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (2026)
LI Jinsong ; LIAO Guiqing ; LI Longjiang ; ZHANG Chenping ; SHANG Chenping ; ZHANG Jie ; ZHONG Laiping ; LIU Bing ; CHEN Gang ; WEI Jianhua ; JI Tong ; LI Chunjie ; LIN Lisong ; REN Guoxin ; LI Yi ; SHANG Wei ; HAN Bing ; JIANG Canhua ; ZHANG Sheng ; SONG Ming ; LIU Xuekui ; WANG Anxun ; LIU Shuguang ; CHEN Zhanhong ; WANG Youyuan ; LIN Zhaoyu ; LI Haigang ; DUAN Xiaohui ; YE Ling ; ZHENG Jun ; WANG Jun ; LV Xiaozhi ; ZHU Lijun ; CAO Haotian
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):105-118
Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common head and neck malignancy. Approximately 50% to 60% of patients with OSCC are diagnosed at a locally advanced stage (clinical staging III-IVa). Even with comprehensive and sequential treatment primarily based on surgery, the 5-year overall survival rate remains below 50%, and patients often suffer from postoperative functional impairments such as difficulties with speaking and swallowing. Programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC and have shown encouraging efficacy. However, clinical practice still faces key challenges, including the definition of indications, optimization of combination regimens, and standards for efficacy evaluation. Based on the latest research advances worldwide and the clinical experience of the expert group, this expert consensus systematically evaluates the application of PD-1 inhibitors in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC, covering combination strategies, treatment cycles and surgical timing, efficacy assessment, use of biomarkers, management of special populations and immune related adverse events, principles for immunotherapy rechallenge, and function preservation strategies. After multiple rounds of panel discussion and through anonymous voting using the Delphi method, the following consensus statements have been formulated: 1) Neoadjuvant therapy with PD-1 inhibitors can be used preoperatively in patients with locally advanced OSCC. The preferred regimen is a PD-1 inhibitor combined with platinum based chemotherapy, administered for 2-3 cycles. 2) During the efficacy evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy, radiographic assessment should follow the dual criteria of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 and immune RECIST (iRECIST). After surgery, systematic pathological evaluation of both the primary lesion and regional lymph nodes is required. For combination chemotherapy regimens, PD-L1 expression and combined positive score need not be used as mandatory inclusion or exclusion criteria. 3) For special populations such as the elderly (≥ 70 years), individuals with stable HIV viral load, and carriers of chronic HBV/HCV, PD-1 inhibitors may be used cautiously under the guidance of a multidisciplinary team (MDT), with close monitoring for adverse events. 4) For patients with a poor response to neoadjuvant therapy, continuation of the original treatment regimen is not recommended; the subsequent treatment plan should be adjusted promptly after MDT assessment. Organ transplant recipients and patients with active autoimmune diseases are not recommended to receive neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor therapy due to the high risk of immune related activation. Rechallenge is generally not advised for patients who have experienced high risk immune related adverse events such as immune mediated myocarditis, neurotoxicity, or pneumonitis. 5) For patients with a good pathological response, individualized de escalation surgery and function preservation strategies can be explored. This consensus aims to promote the standardized, safe, and precise application of neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor strategies in the management of locally advanced OSCC patients.
3.Mechanism of Fresh Cutting of Traditional Chinese Medicine: Discussion on Integration of Traditional Wisdom and Modern Technology
Wenjie BAO ; Lingyun ZHONG ; Wenhua WU ; Congmin LIU ; Zixin CHEN ; Xingmei LU ; Hengli TONG ; Yi HUANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):282-290
Fresh-cut processing constitutes a pivotal technique in the origin processing of Chinese medicinal materials, with a long history documented in multiple materia medica. In recent years, it has garnered national policy support for its ability to prevent component loss and low processing efficiency associated with traditional drying-before-cutting methods. As of August 2025, 26 provinces and municipalities nationwide have cumulatively published 789 species for fresh-cut processing. Among these, 78 were included in the 2025 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China. However, the practice continues to face common challenges and difficulties, including ambiguous scientific understanding, fragmented standards, limited quality control approaches, and poor process stability. Based on this, this paper synthesises years of research findings to systematically elucidate the core mechanisms of fresh-cut processing. These encompass alterations to herbal tissue structure during cutting, post-processing changes in constituents, and physiological-biochemical processes such as plant stress responses and shifts in endogenous enzyme activity. It also summarises influencing factors, including inherent herbal properties, cutting timing and methods, and environmental conditions like temperature, humidity, and microbial presence. Based on this overview of fresh-cutting mechanisms, subsequent research should advance in four directions:Clarifying the scientific principles of fresh-cutting, overcoming technical bottlenecks, upgrading intelligent equipment, and establishing quality standards and evaluation systems. This study provides a theoretical foundation and scientific basis for future research on fresh-cutting in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM), promoting its deeper practical application within the industry and contributing to the high-quality development of TCM industry and the modernization of TCM.
4.Zhuluan Decoction Ameliorates Premature Ovarian Insufficiency by Inhibiting Excessive Autophagy of KGN Through Regulation of PI3K/Akt/mTOR Pathway
Yao CHEN ; Sainan TIAN ; Jing ZENG ; Xingxing YI ; Wen'e LIU ; Lei LEI ; Li TANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):89-98
ObjectiveTo elucidate the underlying mechanism through which Zhuluan decoction suppresses excessive autophagy in human ovarian granulosa cells (KGN) and ameliorates premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) via the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (Akt)/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway. MethodsThe optimal concentration of cyclophosphamide for inducing a POI model in KGN cells was identified via the cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay. Subsequently, the impacts of varying concentrations of Zhuluan decoction-containing serum on the viability of the KGN cell model were assessed. After the optimal drug concentration was determined, KGN cells were categorized into the following groups: blank control (20% blank serum), model (20% blank serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide), Zhuluan decoction-containing serum (20% Zhuluan decoction-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide), autophagy inhibitor (20% blank serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide + 20 μmol·L-1 chloroquine phosphate), autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum (20% Zhuluan decoction-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide + 20 μmol·L-1 chloroquine phosphate), and estradiol valerate (20% estradiol valerate-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide). Following 48 hours of incubation, flow cytometry was utilized to measure the apoptosis rate of KGN cells in each group. Western blotting was employed to quantify the protein levels of PI3K, phosphorylated (p)-Akt, Akt, p-mTOR, and mTOR, along with the expression levels of autophagy-related proteins such as Beclin1, autophagy-related 5 homolog (ATG5), and microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 (LC3), in each group. Additionally, monodansylcadaverine (MDC) staining was performed to evaluate the extent of autophagy in each group. ResultsIncubation of KGN cells with 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide for 48 h successfully established a POI model, marked by a significant inhibition of KGN cell proliferation. Notably, the inhibitory effect of cyclophosphamide on KGN cell proliferation exhibited a positive correlation with its concentration. Zhuluan decoction-containing serum at 20% and 30% promoted cell proliferation and mitigated the inhibitory effect of cyclophosphamide on KGN cell proliferation, with comparable therapeutic efficacy observed at both concentrations. Compared with the blank control group, the model group displayed an elevated apoptosis rate (P<0.01), reduced protein levels of PI3K, p-Akt, and p-mTOR (P<0.01), increased protein levels of Beclin1, LC3, and ATG5 (P<0.01), no significant alterations in the protein levels of Akt and mTOR, and an enhanced MDC autophagy fluorescence intensity (P<0.01). In comparison to that the model group, the apoptosis rates in the blank control group, model group, Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group, autophagy inhibitor group, autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group, and estradiol valerate group all reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the most pronounced reduction observed in the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group. The protein levels of PI3K, p-Akt, and p-mTOR were higher in other groups than in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01), being the highest in the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoctio-containing serum group (P<0.01). The protein levels of Beclin1 and ATG5 were lower in other groups than in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression level of LC3 declined in the Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group and the estradiol valerate group (P<0.05, P<0.01), while it decreased without statistical significance in the autophagy inhibitor group and the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group. ConclusionZhuluan decoction may activate the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway to inhibit excessive autophagy and counteract the detrimental effects of cyclophosphamide on the KGN cell model, thus managing POI.
5.Zhuluan Decoction Ameliorates Premature Ovarian Insufficiency by Inhibiting Excessive Autophagy of KGN Through Regulation of PI3K/Akt/mTOR Pathway
Yao CHEN ; Sainan TIAN ; Jing ZENG ; Xingxing YI ; Wen'e LIU ; Lei LEI ; Li TANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):89-98
ObjectiveTo elucidate the underlying mechanism through which Zhuluan decoction suppresses excessive autophagy in human ovarian granulosa cells (KGN) and ameliorates premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) via the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (Akt)/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway. MethodsThe optimal concentration of cyclophosphamide for inducing a POI model in KGN cells was identified via the cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay. Subsequently, the impacts of varying concentrations of Zhuluan decoction-containing serum on the viability of the KGN cell model were assessed. After the optimal drug concentration was determined, KGN cells were categorized into the following groups: blank control (20% blank serum), model (20% blank serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide), Zhuluan decoction-containing serum (20% Zhuluan decoction-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide), autophagy inhibitor (20% blank serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide + 20 μmol·L-1 chloroquine phosphate), autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum (20% Zhuluan decoction-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide + 20 μmol·L-1 chloroquine phosphate), and estradiol valerate (20% estradiol valerate-containing serum + 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide). Following 48 hours of incubation, flow cytometry was utilized to measure the apoptosis rate of KGN cells in each group. Western blotting was employed to quantify the protein levels of PI3K, phosphorylated (p)-Akt, Akt, p-mTOR, and mTOR, along with the expression levels of autophagy-related proteins such as Beclin1, autophagy-related 5 homolog (ATG5), and microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 (LC3), in each group. Additionally, monodansylcadaverine (MDC) staining was performed to evaluate the extent of autophagy in each group. ResultsIncubation of KGN cells with 5 μmol·L-1 cyclophosphamide for 48 h successfully established a POI model, marked by a significant inhibition of KGN cell proliferation. Notably, the inhibitory effect of cyclophosphamide on KGN cell proliferation exhibited a positive correlation with its concentration. Zhuluan decoction-containing serum at 20% and 30% promoted cell proliferation and mitigated the inhibitory effect of cyclophosphamide on KGN cell proliferation, with comparable therapeutic efficacy observed at both concentrations. Compared with the blank control group, the model group displayed an elevated apoptosis rate (P<0.01), reduced protein levels of PI3K, p-Akt, and p-mTOR (P<0.01), increased protein levels of Beclin1, LC3, and ATG5 (P<0.01), no significant alterations in the protein levels of Akt and mTOR, and an enhanced MDC autophagy fluorescence intensity (P<0.01). In comparison to that the model group, the apoptosis rates in the blank control group, model group, Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group, autophagy inhibitor group, autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group, and estradiol valerate group all reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the most pronounced reduction observed in the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group. The protein levels of PI3K, p-Akt, and p-mTOR were higher in other groups than in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01), being the highest in the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoctio-containing serum group (P<0.01). The protein levels of Beclin1 and ATG5 were lower in other groups than in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression level of LC3 declined in the Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group and the estradiol valerate group (P<0.05, P<0.01), while it decreased without statistical significance in the autophagy inhibitor group and the autophagy inhibitor + Zhuluan decoction-containing serum group. ConclusionZhuluan decoction may activate the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway to inhibit excessive autophagy and counteract the detrimental effects of cyclophosphamide on the KGN cell model, thus managing POI.
6.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
7.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
8.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
9.Zinc Finger Protein 639 Expression Is a Novel Prognostic Determinant in Breast Cancer
Fang LEE ; Shih-Ping CHENG ; Ming-Jen CHEN ; Wen-Chien HUANG ; Yi-Min LIU ; Shao-Chiang CHANG ; Yuan-Ching CHANG
Journal of Breast Cancer 2025;28(2):86-98
Purpose:
Zinc finger protein 639 (ZNF639) is often found within the overlapping amplicon of PIK3CA, and previous studies suggest its involvement in the pathogenesis of esophageal and oral squamous cell carcinomas. However, its expression and significance in breast cancer remain uncharacterized.
Methods:
Immunohistochemical analysis of ZNF639 was performed using tissue microarrays.Functional studies, including colony formation, Transwell cell migration, and in vivo metastasis, were conducted on breast tumor cells with ZNF639 knockdown via small interfering RNA transfection.
Results:
Reduced ZNF639 immunoreactivity was observed in 82% of the breast cancer samples, independent of hormone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, ZNF639 expression was associated with favorable survival outcomes, including recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14–0.89) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.16– 1.05). ZNF639 knockdown increased clonogenicity, cell motility, and lung metastasis in NOD/ SCID mice. Following the ZNF639 knockdown, the expression of Snail1, vimentin, and C-C chemokine ligand 20 (CCL20) was upregulated, and the changes in cell phenotype mediated by ZNF639 were reversed by the subsequent knockdown of CCL20.
Conclusion
Low ZNF639 expression is a novel prognostic factor for recurrence-free survival in patients with breast cancer.
10.Secular trend and projection of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 1985 to 2019: Rural areas are becoming the focus of investment.
Jiajia DANG ; Yunfei LIU ; Shan CAI ; Panliang ZHONG ; Di SHI ; Ziyue CHEN ; Yihang ZHANG ; Yanhui DONG ; Jun MA ; Yi SONG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(3):311-317
BACKGROUND:
The urban-rural disparities in overweight and obesity among children and adolescents are narrowing, and there is a need for long-term and updated data to explain this inequality, understand the underlying mechanisms, and identify priority groups for interventions.
METHODS:
We analyzed data from seven rounds of the Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health (CNSSCH) conducted from 1985 to 2019, focusing on school-age children and adolescents aged 7-18 years. Joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points (indicating a change in the trend) in the prevalence of overweight and obesity during the study period, stratified by urban/rural areas and sex. Annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to describe changes in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Polynomial regression models were used to predict the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in 2025 and 2030, considering urban/rural areas, sex, and age groups.
RESULTS:
The prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban boys and girls showed an inflection point of 2000, with AAPC values of 10.09% (95% CI: 7.33-12.92%, t = 7.414, P <0.001) and 8.67% (95% CI: 6.10-11.30%, t = 6.809, P <0.001), respectively. The APC for urban boys decreased from 18.31% (95% CI: 4.72-33.67%, t = 5.926, P = 0.027) to 4.01% (95% CI: 1.33-6.75%, t = 6.486, P = 0.023), while the APC for urban girls decreased from 13.88% (95% CI: 1.82-27.38%, t = 4.994, P = 0.038) to 4.72% (95% CI: 1.43-8.12%, t = 6.215, P = 0.025). However, no inflection points were observed in the best-fit models for rural boys and girls during the period 1985-2019. The prevalence of overweight and obesity for both urban and rural boys is expected to converge at 35.76% by approximately 2027. A similar pattern is observed for urban and rural girls, with a prevalence of overweight and obesity reaching 20.86% in 2025.
CONCLUSIONS
The prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents has been steadily increasing from 1985 to 2019. A complete reversal in urban-rural prevalence is expected by 2027, with a higher prevalence of overweight and obesity in rural areas. Urgent action is needed to address health inequities and increase investments, particularly policies targeting rural children and adolescents.
Humans
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Child
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Adolescent
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Female
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Male
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Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
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Overweight/epidemiology*
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Prevalence
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China/epidemiology*
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Pediatric Obesity/epidemiology*
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Obesity/epidemiology*
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Urban Population


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