1.Association between exposure to heatwave and sudden death among residents in Jiangsu Province,China
Changkui OU ; Yanling ZHONG ; Rui LI ; Yi LIN ; Ruijun XU ; Tingting LIU ; Tingting WANG ; Hong SUN ; Yuewei LIU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):22-28
Objective To quantitatively assess the exposure-response association between exposure to heatwave and sudden death, estimate the attributable excess deaths, and identify potential vulnerable subgroups. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted among residents who died from sudden death in Jiangsu Province, China between 2015 and 2021. Heatwave events in Jiangsu Province, defined using varying relative temperature thresholds and durations, were identified using temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS V2.0). Individual heatwave exposure was assessed based on each subject's residential address. The exposure-response association between heatwave and sudden death was evaluated using conditional logistic regression model combined with a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM). Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were estimated. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to assess potential effect modifications. Results Under all definitions, exposure to heatwave was significantly associated with an increased risk of sudden death, and the risk increased with the intensity of heatwave. Using the P95_3d definition (temperature exceeding the 95th percentile for ≥3 consecutive days), heatwave was significantlyassociated with a 56% increased risk of sudden death (95% CI: 31%, 86%). The population-attributable fraction of sudden death due to heatwave exposure was 1.45% (95% CI: 0.97%, 1.90%). Stratified analyses indicated no statistically significant differences in the association between heatwave exposure and sudden death across age or sex subgroups. Conclusion Heatwave exposure was associated with an increased risk of sudden death. Reducing heatwave exposure during summer may help lower the occurrence of sudden death.
2.Expert consensus on neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitors for locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (2026)
LI Jinsong ; LIAO Guiqing ; LI Longjiang ; ZHANG Chenping ; SHANG Chenping ; ZHANG Jie ; ZHONG Laiping ; LIU Bing ; CHEN Gang ; WEI Jianhua ; JI Tong ; LI Chunjie ; LIN Lisong ; REN Guoxin ; LI Yi ; SHANG Wei ; HAN Bing ; JIANG Canhua ; ZHANG Sheng ; SONG Ming ; LIU Xuekui ; WANG Anxun ; LIU Shuguang ; CHEN Zhanhong ; WANG Youyuan ; LIN Zhaoyu ; LI Haigang ; DUAN Xiaohui ; YE Ling ; ZHENG Jun ; WANG Jun ; LV Xiaozhi ; ZHU Lijun ; CAO Haotian
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):105-118
Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common head and neck malignancy. Approximately 50% to 60% of patients with OSCC are diagnosed at a locally advanced stage (clinical staging III-IVa). Even with comprehensive and sequential treatment primarily based on surgery, the 5-year overall survival rate remains below 50%, and patients often suffer from postoperative functional impairments such as difficulties with speaking and swallowing. Programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC and have shown encouraging efficacy. However, clinical practice still faces key challenges, including the definition of indications, optimization of combination regimens, and standards for efficacy evaluation. Based on the latest research advances worldwide and the clinical experience of the expert group, this expert consensus systematically evaluates the application of PD-1 inhibitors in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC, covering combination strategies, treatment cycles and surgical timing, efficacy assessment, use of biomarkers, management of special populations and immune related adverse events, principles for immunotherapy rechallenge, and function preservation strategies. After multiple rounds of panel discussion and through anonymous voting using the Delphi method, the following consensus statements have been formulated: 1) Neoadjuvant therapy with PD-1 inhibitors can be used preoperatively in patients with locally advanced OSCC. The preferred regimen is a PD-1 inhibitor combined with platinum based chemotherapy, administered for 2-3 cycles. 2) During the efficacy evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy, radiographic assessment should follow the dual criteria of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 and immune RECIST (iRECIST). After surgery, systematic pathological evaluation of both the primary lesion and regional lymph nodes is required. For combination chemotherapy regimens, PD-L1 expression and combined positive score need not be used as mandatory inclusion or exclusion criteria. 3) For special populations such as the elderly (≥ 70 years), individuals with stable HIV viral load, and carriers of chronic HBV/HCV, PD-1 inhibitors may be used cautiously under the guidance of a multidisciplinary team (MDT), with close monitoring for adverse events. 4) For patients with a poor response to neoadjuvant therapy, continuation of the original treatment regimen is not recommended; the subsequent treatment plan should be adjusted promptly after MDT assessment. Organ transplant recipients and patients with active autoimmune diseases are not recommended to receive neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor therapy due to the high risk of immune related activation. Rechallenge is generally not advised for patients who have experienced high risk immune related adverse events such as immune mediated myocarditis, neurotoxicity, or pneumonitis. 5) For patients with a good pathological response, individualized de escalation surgery and function preservation strategies can be explored. This consensus aims to promote the standardized, safe, and precise application of neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor strategies in the management of locally advanced OSCC patients.
3.Expert consensus on the application of artificial intelligence in lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment (2026 edition)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Haibo WANG ; Yi HU ; Hao ZHANG ; Jigang DAI ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Zihao CHEN ; Hongxia TIAN ; Lunxu LIU ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Zongyang YU ; Zhenbin QIU ; Yihua SUN ; Jing HU ; Yuhang SHI ; Zhifei GUO ; Peng ZHANG ; Kezhong CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(06):848-856
With the continuous deepening of the concept of precision diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer, how to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in the screening, diagnosis, and treatment pathways in clinical practice has become an important issue that urgently needs to be overcome. The current clinical difficulty lies in the fact that despite continuous advancements in imaging and molecular diagnostic technologies, there are still limitations in manual efficiency and subjective experience when it comes to massive data analysis and multi-scale feature extraction. Artificial intelligence (AI), especially algorithm systems based on deep learning, is an innovative technology capable of deeply empowering medical big data. This method utilizes algorithms such as convolutional neural networks, combined with radiomics, pathomics, and multi-modal data fusion analysis, demonstrating immense potential in early precise detection and benign-malignant differentiation of pulmonary nodules, digital pathological subtype recognition and non-invasive prediction of driver genes, precise 3D surgical planning and automatic delineation of radiotherapy target volumes, as well as dynamic risk warning during follow-up. This innovative technology provides a brand-new solution for realizing intelligent and individualized lung cancer diagnosis and treatment models. This consensus, based on the latest evidence from evidence-based medicine and combined with the development trends in the AI field and real-world clinical needs, was ultimately formed by gathering the consensus opinions of multidisciplinary experts in radiology, pathology, thoracic surgery, and other fields. The main content covers the application specifications of AI in the three core scenarios of lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment, the technical standards for data collection and algorithm validation, as well as the ethical and regulatory challenges faced at the current stage. It aims to clarify the applicable boundaries of AI as a clinical auxiliary decision support tool, providing scientific guidance and standardized exploration directions for peers currently engaged in or planning to carry out AI-assisted clinical diagnosis, treatment, and translation of lung cancer.
4.Differences in deltamethrin resistance and kdr gene mutation in Culex tritaeniorhynchus population in and outside the Yellow Sea wetland
Xiao-er ZHANG ; Zhi-ming WU ; Ye TIAN ; Qian CUI ; Yu-qian JI ; Huan WANG ; Shu-juan YANG ; Yi-chao ZHAO ; Yu WANG ; Hua-yu YIN ; Yu DING ; Guo-jin YAN ; Min-sen ZHAO ; Shou-gang ZHANG ; Bing-dong SONG ; Hong-na CHEN ; Jian GAO ; Wei-fang YANG ; Yu-fu ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Hong-liang CHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(2):101-107
Objective To gain insights into the biological characteristics of different populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus within and around the Yellow Sea wetland from the perspective of the occurrence of resistance, we investigated the levels of resistance to deltamethrin and kdr gene mutation in the wetland and its peripheral areas. Methods Specimens were collected from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations at two monitoring sites in the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area, and also from two populations in Yancheng City and the Liuhe District of Nanjing, and the resistance of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin was determined using the CDC biotest bottle method. For each concentration of deltamethrin assessed, a random subset of exposed specimens was selected for amplification of the kdr gene fragment, followed by Sanger sequencing to identify and analyze resistance-associated mutations. Results The LC50 levels of deltamethrin among mosquitoes from the four populations in Luhe, Yancheng, the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and the Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area were 2.048 5, 7.798 2, 3.473 3, and 17.695 5 mg/mL, respectively, with corresponding concentrations of deltamethrin ranging from 0.005 to 5.000,0.050 to 50.000,0.050 to 25.000 and 0.050 to 50.000 mg/mL, respectively. Furthermore, the ranges of the KT50 values were 11.76-107.43, 67.05-216.30,29.77-107.43 and 28.40-329.51 min; the 1-h knockdown rates were 34.58%-99.15%, 9.52%-43.80%, 55.09%-73.01%, and 10.09%-68.07%; and the 24-h mortality rates were 12.15%-67.52%,9.52%-79.56%,13.17%-82.21%, and 11.01%-78.99%, respectively. With respect to kdr gene mutation, we assayed a total of 63,70,59, and 57 mosquitoes for the four populations, for which we detected L1014F mutation frequencies of 14.29%, 35.00%, 20.34%, and 31.58%, respectively, with a majority of these mutations being heterozygous for resistance. In addition, five adult mosquitoes were identified has having synonymous mutations at site 1011[i. e. , AAT(asparagine)mutation to AAC(asparagine)]. Conclusions Our findings revealed the clear resistance of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus to deltamethrin in the Yancheng region of the Yellow Sea wetland, and the resistance phenotype and kdr frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment were comparable to those of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment, thereby indicating that the resistance of different populations of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was homogeneous under the pressure of different insecticide selection within and around the wetland. However, the underlying mechanisms need to be further studied.
5.Hypotension prediction index in the prediction of better outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Yi LIU ; Bei LIU ; Wei XIONG ; Chen WANG ; Kunxin YANG ; Wudi MA ; Liangtian LAN ; Ming WEI ; Nan JIANG ; Xia FENG
Korean Journal of Anesthesiology 2026;79(2):169-181
Background:
The hypotension prediction index (HPI) is an algorithm designed to predict hypotension. Some studies have reported that HPI-guided hemodynamic management strategies decrease intraoperative hypotension and complications; however, the effect of HPI on reducing perioperative complications is controversial. This meta-analysis aimed to assess the efficacy of the HPI in reducing major complications and intraoperative hypotension.
Methods:
We conducted this meta-analysis according to the PRISMA statement and Cochrane Handbook guidelines. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify studies focusing on the efficacy of HPI-guided management in reducing intraoperative hypotension and postoperative complications. The PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched, and the resulting data were combined to calculate the pooled mean differences or risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs of both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and retrospective studies, as appropriate. Heterogeneity and potential publication bias were also assessed.
Results:
Nineteen articles (12 RCTs and 7 retrospective studies) with 2570 recruited patients were included in this meta-analysis. The critical evaluation of the study quality revealed a low risk of bias in the included RCTs. Among the non-randomized trials, one was rated 7, two were rated 8, and the remaining four were rated 9 on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, indicating high quality and a low risk of bias. HPI-guided management significantly reduced intraoperative hypotension and associated major complications (RR = 0.79, 95% CI [0.69–0.90], I2 = 0, P < 0.001). Blood loss and length of hospital stay were comparable between the groups.
Conclusions
HPI-guided management significantly reduced intraoperative hypotension and major complications.
6.Guidelines for the perioperative diagnosis and treatment of oncogene-driven non-small cell lung cancer (2026)
Weidong WANG ; Yongbin LIN ; Hui TIAN ; Gaofeng LI ; Shun XU ; Yongde LIAO ; Haitao MA ; Junfeng LIU ; Chundong GU ; Xiaolong YAN ; Shumin WANG ; Daqiang SUN ; Jianyang LIU ; Tao XUE ; Shaohua MA ; Zhigang LI ; Shuanghu YUAN ; Gen LIN ; Ling CAI ; Jianping ZHOU ; Wenzhao ZHONG ; Naixin LIANG ; Yi HAN ; Junfeng WANG ; Weidong ZHANG ; Xin WANG ; Lianjuan CHEN ; Lunxu LIU ; Xiuyi ZHI ; Lanjun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(09):1337-1353
Lung cancer constitutes the most prevalent and lethal malignant tumor in China. Approximately 85% of lung cancer diagnoses correspond to the non-small cell histological subtype [non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)]. Despite surgery being the mainstay for early-stage disease, postoperative recurrence remains high and adjuvant chemotherapy offers limited benefit. In recent years, targeted therapy has demonstrated substantial advantages in driver mutation-positive NSCLC. To this end, the Lung Cancer Medical Education Committee of the Chinese Medical Education Association developed guidelines based on a systematic review of evidence through November 2025, using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach and a modified Delphi method. Focusing on epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK), and addressing ROS proto-oncogene 1 (ROS1), B-Raf proto-oncogene serine/threonine kinase (BRAF) V600E mutation, and mesenchymal-epithelial transition factor (MET) exon 14 (METex14) skipping, the guideline covers molecular testing, neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy, perioperative strategies, minimal residual disease monitoring, and postoperative surveillance. It defines testing requirements, specifies stage-directed and subtype-specific treatments, and standardizes minimal residual disease monitoring. These recommendations emphasize precision and feasibility to improve survival and quality of life.
7.Chinese expert consensus on the application of jejunal interposition for esophageal reconstruction in complex esophageal cancer surgery (2026 edition)
Wenshu CHEN ; Lilan ZHAO ; Zhaoxian LIN ; Debin OU ; Zhigang LI ; Chengchu ZHU ; Longqi CHEN ; Shuoyan LIU ; Xiangnan LI ; Chao CHENG ; Ni ZHANG ; Songping XIE ; Xufeng GUO ; Xu LI ; Xinyu MEI ; Xuefeng LENG ; Jianqun MA ; Zhijun HUANG ; Guojun GENG ; Lin ZHANG ; Hongyan WANG ; Yi ZHANG ; Weijie WANG ; Jiangbo LIN ; Jinbiao XIE ; Jun GUAN ; Rongqi HE ; Xing LIN ; Xiuhua TU ; Yong LI ; Lijie TAN ; Xiaojie PAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(10):1527-1543
Objective Jejunal interposition is an important option for restoring gastrointestinal continuity in patients with complex esophageal cancer in whom the stomach is unavailable for reconstruction due to previous gastrectomy, tumor involvement, failed gastric conduit, or other constraints. Although the jejunum offers a caliber similar to the esophagus, a rich blood supply, and preserved peristaltic function, anatomical variations in mesenteric length and vascular arcades render long-segment and high-level reconstruction susceptible to excessive tension, mesenteric torsion, venous congestion, and inadequate distal perfusion. This consensus aims to provide standardized recommendations for the application of jejunal interposition in this specific patient population. Methods This consensus was developed in accordance with the WHO Handbook for Guideline Development and Chinese national guideline development standards, with reference to the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation Ⅱ(AGREE Ⅱ), Reporting Items for Practice Guidelines in Healthcare (RIGHT), and Scientific, Transparent and Applicable Rankings (STAR) checklists. The project was registered on the international practice guidelines registry platform (PREPARE-2026CN1384). The working group systematically searched Chinese and English evidence addressing 12 clinical questions. Evidence was graded using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (OCEBM) 2009 system, with structured appraisal of risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness, and imprecision. Recommendations were formulated through two rounds of Delphi surveys and a face-to-face consensus meeting, with an agreement threshold of ≥75%. Results The consensus generated 12 recommendations covering indications, selection between jejunum and colon, preoperative assessment, surgical approach and reconstruction route, pedicled jejunal interposition (PJI), supercharged pedicled jejunal interposition (SPJ), indocyanine green (ICG) perfusion assessment, perioperative nutrition, management of anastomotic leakage, long-term follow-up, and special treatment scenarios. Given that the available direct evidence is predominantly derived from single-center retrospective cohorts and case series, recommendations extrapolated from general esophagectomy or other gastrointestinal surgical evidence are deliberately phrased with caution. Conclusion Jejunal interposition is a safe and effective approach for digestive tract reconstruction in patients with complex esophageal cancer in whom the stomach is unavailable. This consensus emphasizes that clinical decision-making should be individualized based on the patient's prior treatment history, reconstruction height, vascular anatomy, technical availability, and institutional experience in the Chinese context.
8.Risk assessment and stepwise management framework for pulmonary nodules
Lang TANG ; Xiaoke CHEN ; Jie TANG ; Jin JIANG ; Xinnan FANG ; Sikun LIU ; Zeguang YE ; Jiamei JIN ; Canglei ZHANG ; Wenzhao ZHONG ; Haibo WANG ; Yi HU ; Hao ZHANG ; Jigang DAI ; Guibin QIAO ; Junqiang FAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(10):1544-1552
Objective To propose a framework for risk assessment and stepwise management of pulmonary nodules based on existing guidelines and key studies, and to clarify the boundaries for triage, workup escalation, and referral in different detection scenarios. Methods A problem-oriented evidence synthesis approach was used, prioritizing Chinese expert consensus, Fleischner Society Guidelines, British Thoracic Society (BTS) Guidelines, and Lung-RADS. This was supplemented by studies on risk models, imaging measurements, liquid biopsy, tissue sampling, and surgical treatments. This paper is not presented as a formal consensus or a validated clinical pathway. Results A three-tiered framework consisting of basic non-invasive assessment, advanced assessment, and invasive diagnosis was established. It specified the applicable populations, boundaries for the use of risk models, imaging review, management of conflicting results, evaluation of histopathological consistency, and post-intervention follow-up. Liquid biopsy, genetic testing, and artificial intelligence were defined as investigational or adjunctive tools. Conclusion This framework can serve as a preliminary reference for multidisciplinary teams in developing local protocols. It cannot replace applicable guidelines, pathological diagnosis, shared decision-making with patients, or real-world validation.
9.Mechanism of Modified Si Junzitang and Shashen Maidong Tang in Improving Sensitivity of Cisplatin in EGFR-TKI Resistant Lung Adenocarcinoma Cells Based on Aerobic Glycolysis
Yanping WEN ; Yi JIANG ; Liping SHEN ; Haiwei XIAO ; Xiaofeng YANG ; Surui YUAN ; Lingshuang LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):39-46
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of modified Si Junzitang and Shashen Maidong Tang [Yiqi Yangyin Jiedu prescription (YQYYJD)] in enhancing the sensitivity of cisplatin in epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI)-resistant lung adenocarcinoma cells based on aerobic glycolysis. MethodsThe effects of different concentrations of YQYYJD (0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 g·L-1) and cisplatin (0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27 mg·L-1) on the proliferation and activity of PC9/GR cells were detected by the cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay after 24 hours of intervention. The half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) for PC9/GR cells was calculated to determine the concentrations used in subsequent experiments. PC9/GR cells were divided into blank group (complete medium), YQYYJD group (5 g·L-1), cisplatin group (12 mg·L-1), and combined group (YQYYJD 5 g·L-1 + cisplatin 12 mg·L-1). After 24 hours of intervention, cell viability was measured using CCK-8 assay. Cell proliferation was assessed by colony formation assay, and cell migration was evaluated by scratch and Transwell assays. Glucose consumption, lactate production, and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels were measured by colorimetric assays. The expression levels of glycolysis-related proteins, including hexokinase 2 (HK2), phosphofructokinase P (PFKP), pyruvate kinase M2 (PKM2), lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA), glucose transporter 1 (GLUT1), and monocarboxylate transporter 4 (MCT4), were determined by Western blot. ResultsBoth YQYYJD and cisplatin inhibited the viability of PC9/GR cells in a concentration-dependent manner. The IC50 of PC9/GR cells for YQYYJD and cisplatin were 5.15 g·L-1 and 12.91 mg·L-1, respectively. In terms of cell proliferation, compared with the blank group, the cell survival rate and the number of colonies formed in the YQYYJD group, cisplatin group, and combined group were significantly decreased (P<0.01). Compared with the YQYYJD and cisplatin groups, the combined group showed a further significant reduction in cell survival rate and colony formation (P<0.01). In terms of cell migration, compared with the blank group, the cell migration rate and the number of cells passing through the Transwell membrane in the YQYYJD group, cisplatin group, and combined group were significantly decreased (P<0.01). Compared with the YQYYJD and cisplatin groups, the combined group exhibited a further significant reduction in cell migration rate and the number of cells passing through the Transwell membrane (P<0.01). In terms of glycolysis, compared with the blank group, glucose consumption, lactate production, and ATP levels in the YQYYJD group, cisplatin group, and combined group were significantly decreased (P<0.01). Compared with the YQYYJD and cisplatin groups, the combined group showed a further significant reduction in glucose consumption, lactate production, and ATP levels (P<0.05). Compared with the blank group, the protein expression levels of HK2, PFKP, PKM2, and LDHA in the YQYYJD, cisplatin, and combined groups were significantly decreased (P<0.01). The combined group showed a further significant reduction in the expression levels of these proteins compared with the YQYYJD and cisplatin groups (P<0.01). No significant differences were observed in the protein expression levels of GLUT1 and MCT4 among the groups. ConclusionYQYYJD can synergistically inhibit the proliferation and migration of PC9/GR cells and enhance their sensitivity to cisplatin. The mechanism may be related to the downregulation of the expression of glycolysis-related rate-limiting enzymes, including HK2, PFKP, PKM2, and LDHA, thereby inhibiting glycolysis.
10.Construction of a postoperative mortality risk model for patients with acute aortic dissection based on XGBoost-SHAP method
Xin ZHANG ; Min FANG ; Yi CAO ; Ting-Ting LI ; Xian-Kong LIU ; Jia-Yi DANG ; Xue-Sen ZHAO ; Hong-Qin REN ; Jia-Ze GENG ; Kai-Wen WANG ; Tie-Sheng HAN ; Yong-Bo ZHAO ; Dong MA
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1226-1234
Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.


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