Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)₁₂, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Objective This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Urumqi City, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi City. Methods We collected and analyzed the reported HFMD cases in Urumqi City from the National Information System for Infectious Diseases Reporting during the period of 2014-2022. Results A total of 17 138 cases of HFMD were reported in Urumqi City from 2014 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.66/100 000. The overall trend showed a decrease, and the peak months were from May to July. The top three districts with the highest incidence rates were High-tech Zone, Shayibake District, and Tianshan District. The male-to-female ratio was 1.48:1，and there were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among gender (χ²=2.28,P>0.05). The majority of cases (90.23%) were children aged 0-6 years, primarily scattered children, and other enterovirus strains became dominant after 2017. Conclusion HFMD has shown a decreasing trend in Urumqi City, Xinjiang in recent years. The disease primarily affects pre-school children, and other enterovirus strains have become the dominant strains in the area. It is recommended to develop scientifically effective prevention and control measures based on the local situation to control the spread of HFMD.

Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood. Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants [fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO)] on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods Basic information of 90622 IHD hospitalized patients in Urumqi City was collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022, and daily air pollutant concentration data and meteorological data were collected during the same period. The meteorological data included daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean relative humidity, and the common air pollutants included PM_2.5, PM₁₀, daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O₃ (O₃_8 h), SO₂, NO₂, and CO. Descriptive statistical analyses (mean, standard deviation, and quartiles) were performed on the collected data. A distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on time-stratified case-crossover design was established to estimate the lagged effects (RR) as well as the cumulative lagged effects (RR_cum) of daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and different air pollutants on the number of IHD admissions, stratified by gender and age (<60 and ≥60 years). Subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the effects of cold waves (≤ P₅ of the daily minimum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) versus heat waves (≥ P₉₅ of the daily maximum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) on IHD hospitalizations and the potential interactions between temperature and the more influential air pollutants [particulate matter (PM) and O₃_8 h] on IHD hospitalizations. Results The maximum number of IHD hospitalizations in a single day in Urumqi from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 was 100, and the average daily number of hospitalized IHD patients was 27. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants had different nonlinear relationships and hysteresis with IHD hospitalizations. Extremely low temperatures (<P₁: −18 °C) showed the greatest risk to admission for the total IHD population at a cumulative lag of 31 d (lag0-31) (RR_cum=2.092, 95%CI: 1.261,3.471). Female [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 3.416 (2.296,5.082)] and people ≥60 years old [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 2.356 (1.681,3.303)] were more sensitive to extremely low temperatures. The risk of IHD hospitalization was greatest on lag20 for cold waves (RR=1.242, 95%CI: 1.053, 1.465), and no lagged effect of heat waves on the number of IHD hospitalizations was found. There was a positive interaction (SI >1, P<0.001) between temperature, PM, and O₃_8 h on the risk of IHD hospitalization, especially for low temperature-high PM and O₃_8 h. Conclusion Both low temperature and high pollutant concentrations associate with an increase in IHD hospitalizations with lagged effects in Urumqi from 2014 to 2022, while cold waves associate with a higher risk of IHD admissions. Females and people aged 60 years and older are at high risk.

Objective:To identify the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in pediatric patients undergoing malignant tumor resection.Methods:Medical records of pediatric patients who underwent open abdominal malignant tumor resection at Children′s Hospital affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine from August 2019 to July 2023, with length of hospital stay ≥48 h, were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into PPC group and non-PPC group based on the occurrence of PPCs within 7 days postoperatively. Variables with P<0.05 in the univariate analysis were included in the binary logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for PPCs. Results:A total of 605 pediatric patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor resection were finally included, among which 391 children developed PPCs, with an incidence of 64.6%. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that body weight ( P=0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification ( P<0.001), preoperative hypoalbuminemia ( P=0.013), preoperative chemotherapy ( P=0.003), tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels ( P=0.002), anesthesia duration ( P<0.001), intraoperative fluid intake (ml·kg -1·h -1, P<0.001), intraoperative use of hypotensive agents ( P=0.047), and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach ( P<0.001) were risk factors for PPCs in children undergoing malignant tumor resection. Age ( P<0.001) was identified as a protective factor for PPCs. Conclusions:Body weight, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification, preoperative chemotherapy, preoperative hypoalbuminemia, tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels, anesthesia duration, intraoperative fluid intake, intraoperative use of hypotensive agents, and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach are risk factors for PPCs in pediatric patients undergoing open abdominal malignant tumor resection, whereas age is a protective factor for PPCs.

Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. ^“Infectious diseases^”, ^“early warning^” and ^“prediction^” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.

Objective:To investigate the clinical value of shear wave elastography (SWE) in predicting pathological responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer.Methods:According to the postoperative pathological responses, 56 patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical excision in the Fujian Cancer Hospital from August 2019 to September 2020 were divided into responders and non-responders. The relative change rates of tumor maximum diameter(ΔD2, ΔD4) and SWE stiffness (ΔEmax2, ΔEmax4, ΔEmean2, ΔEmean4) were assessed before NAC and after different NAC cycles (t2, t4). Clinical information, including age, T, N stages, ER, PR, HER2, Ki67, and molecular subtype were also considered as the variables. The independent influencing factors of pathological responses after neoadjuvant chemotherapy were obtained by logistic regression analysis and diagnostic test was carried out.Results:There were 23 cases as responders (41.0%, 23/56), and 33 cases as non-responders (58.9%, 33/56). Results of multivariate analysis showed ΔEmax4 and HER2 index were independent influencing factors of pathological responses ( OR=1.11, P<0.001; OR=31.81, P=0.002). Area under curve of the ΔEmax4 (AUC: 0.869, 95% CI: 0.746-0.941) was higher than that of HER2 (AUC: 0.690, 95% CI: 0.545-0.834). The combination of ΔEmax4 and HER2 gave the best prediction of pathological responses (AUC 0.930, 95% CI: 0.829-0.981). the sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, postive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 78.26%, 96.97%, 75.23%, 94.73%, and 86.49%, respectively. Conclusions:ΔEmax4 and HER2 are independent predictors of pathological responses after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. Combined ΔEmax4 and HER2 can improve the predictive diagnostic efficacy of pathological responses to chemotherapy for breast cancer.

Objective:To evaluate the value of conventional ultrasound(US) combined with contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS) in the diagnosis of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System( BI-RADS) category 4 small(≤ 2 cm) breast nodules.Methods:A total of 175 breast nodules in 175 patients from Fujian Cancer Hospital between September 2015 and August 2018 classified as BI-RADS category 4 breast nodules with maximum diameter ≤2 cm were evaluated by US and CEUS examinations. All nodules were examined by core-needle biopsy or surgical pathology.The collected ultrasound images and videos were analyzed by blind method. Stepwise Logistic regression was used to analyze the odds ratio of malignant nodules in ultrasound images, and the risk prediction score model was constructed according to OR value. The BI-RADS category was readjusted, and the diagnostic efficiencies before and after adjustment were compared with the ROC curve. Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the odds ratios of breast malignant nodules were non-circumscribed margin ( OR=3.32, P=0.052), calcification in the mass ( OR=7.42, P=0.002), architectural distortion ( OR=38.58, P<0.001), ductal dilatation ( OR=0.01, P=0.010), suspicious or abnormal axillary lymph nodes ( OR=10.92, P=0.003), enlarged lesion scope ( OR=3.38, P=0.040), penetrating vessels ( OR=10.79, P=0.006), and non-circumscribed margin after enhancement( OR=6.24, P=0.003). When the cut-off value was 3.5, the area under ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 0.951, 87.80%, 89.20% and 88.57%, respectively. After adjusting BI-RADS classification and taking the adjusted BI-RADS category 4a as the biopsy threshold, the biopsy rate decreased from 100% to 58.86%, the cancer detection rate increased from 46.86% to 75.73%, and the risk of missed diagnosis was 2.29%. The area under ROC curve before and after BI-RADS classification adjustment was 0.838 and 0.937, respectively. Conclusions:US combined with CEUS can improve the diagnostic efficiency of BI-RADS category 4 small breast nodules and reduce unnecessary biopsy.

Objective:To explore the characteristics of color Doppler ultrasound images of breast lymphoma, and to improve the coincidence rate of ultrasound diagnosis.Methods:The color Doppler ultrasound images characteristics of 24 lesions in 21 patients with breast lymphoma in Fujian Cancer Hospital from June 2011 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, and the diagnostic coincidence rate was counted.Results:All the patients were female, 18 cases were unilateral, 3 cases were bilateral. ALL cases were confirmed as primary or secondary breast lymphoma by coarse needle biopsy or surgical pathology. Pathological types included 18 cases (85.7%) of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, 1 case of anaplastic large cell lymphoma kinase (ALK)-negative anaplastic large cell lymphoma, 1 case of Burkitt lymphoma, 1 case of Burkitt lymphoma or unclassifiable lymphoma with features intermediated between diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Burkitt lymphoma. The maximum diameter of the lesions was (5.7±2.1) cm (range 1.4-16.0 cm), and all lesions were solid in ultrasound images; 19 lesions (79.2%) were mass-type and 5 lesions (20.8%) were diffuse. According to the characteristics of internal echo, the lesions were divided into hypoechogenicity (2 lesions, 8.3%), hyperechogenicity packed with hypoechogenicity (12 lesions, 50.0%), and hyperechogenicity interweaved with hypoechogenicity (10 lesions, 41.7%). According to Adler semi-quantitative method, the blood flow of the lesions was 3 lesions (12.5%) in grade Ⅰ, 6 lesions (25.0%) in grade Ⅱ, and 15 lesions (62.5%) in grade Ⅲ. The detection rate of lesions by color Doppler ultrasound was 100.0% (24/24), but the diagnostic coincidence rate was only 41.7% (10/24).Conclusions:Most of the breast lymphoma is diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and the lesions can be effectively screened by color Doppler ultrasound, but the diagnostic coincidence rate is low. Most of the breast lymphoma grows in the form of mass with abundant internal blood flow signals. When the ultrasound image of the breast lesion is hyperechoic packed or interweaved with hypoechoic, the possibility of breast lymphoma should be considered.

Objective Through the analysis of the data such as the publication of the paper and the scientific research project of urumqi disease prevention and control center from 2008 to 2017,the research ability level of the center is comprehensively evaluated.Methods In this paper,the entropy weight method is used to process and analyze the data.According to the results of information entropy and weight,the comprehensive scores of each index project are obtained and sorted.Results The information entropy of the paper is the smallest,the weight is the largest,the information entropy of the scientific progress award and the result identification is the largest,and the weight is the smallest.The top four years in the comprehensive score are:2016,2017,2014 and 2015;The ranking year is 2012,2010,2013 and 2011 respectively.The last two years are 2008 and 2009.Conclusions Urumqi center for disease control and prevention,2008-2017,scientific research and comprehensive ability level,although each year a little ups and downs,but overall present a curve upward trend,have a qualitative leap in the area of scientific research,achieved the zero breakthrough,and formed a "scientific promoting business,business support scientific research "as the new situation.