Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)₁₂, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Objective This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Urumqi City, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi City. Methods We collected and analyzed the reported HFMD cases in Urumqi City from the National Information System for Infectious Diseases Reporting during the period of 2014-2022. Results A total of 17 138 cases of HFMD were reported in Urumqi City from 2014 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.66/100 000. The overall trend showed a decrease, and the peak months were from May to July. The top three districts with the highest incidence rates were High-tech Zone, Shayibake District, and Tianshan District. The male-to-female ratio was 1.48:1，and there were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among gender (χ²=2.28,P>0.05). The majority of cases (90.23%) were children aged 0-6 years, primarily scattered children, and other enterovirus strains became dominant after 2017. Conclusion HFMD has shown a decreasing trend in Urumqi City, Xinjiang in recent years. The disease primarily affects pre-school children, and other enterovirus strains have become the dominant strains in the area. It is recommended to develop scientifically effective prevention and control measures based on the local situation to control the spread of HFMD.

Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood. Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants [fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO)] on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods Basic information of 90622 IHD hospitalized patients in Urumqi City was collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022, and daily air pollutant concentration data and meteorological data were collected during the same period. The meteorological data included daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean relative humidity, and the common air pollutants included PM_2.5, PM₁₀, daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O₃ (O₃_8 h), SO₂, NO₂, and CO. Descriptive statistical analyses (mean, standard deviation, and quartiles) were performed on the collected data. A distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on time-stratified case-crossover design was established to estimate the lagged effects (RR) as well as the cumulative lagged effects (RR_cum) of daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and different air pollutants on the number of IHD admissions, stratified by gender and age (<60 and ≥60 years). Subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the effects of cold waves (≤ P₅ of the daily minimum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) versus heat waves (≥ P₉₅ of the daily maximum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) on IHD hospitalizations and the potential interactions between temperature and the more influential air pollutants [particulate matter (PM) and O₃_8 h] on IHD hospitalizations. Results The maximum number of IHD hospitalizations in a single day in Urumqi from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 was 100, and the average daily number of hospitalized IHD patients was 27. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants had different nonlinear relationships and hysteresis with IHD hospitalizations. Extremely low temperatures (<P₁: −18 °C) showed the greatest risk to admission for the total IHD population at a cumulative lag of 31 d (lag0-31) (RR_cum=2.092, 95%CI: 1.261,3.471). Female [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 3.416 (2.296,5.082)] and people ≥60 years old [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 2.356 (1.681,3.303)] were more sensitive to extremely low temperatures. The risk of IHD hospitalization was greatest on lag20 for cold waves (RR=1.242, 95%CI: 1.053, 1.465), and no lagged effect of heat waves on the number of IHD hospitalizations was found. There was a positive interaction (SI >1, P<0.001) between temperature, PM, and O₃_8 h on the risk of IHD hospitalization, especially for low temperature-high PM and O₃_8 h. Conclusion Both low temperature and high pollutant concentrations associate with an increase in IHD hospitalizations with lagged effects in Urumqi from 2014 to 2022, while cold waves associate with a higher risk of IHD admissions. Females and people aged 60 years and older are at high risk.

Objective:To identify the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in pediatric patients undergoing malignant tumor resection.Methods:Medical records of pediatric patients who underwent open abdominal malignant tumor resection at Children′s Hospital affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine from August 2019 to July 2023, with length of hospital stay ≥48 h, were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into PPC group and non-PPC group based on the occurrence of PPCs within 7 days postoperatively. Variables with P<0.05 in the univariate analysis were included in the binary logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for PPCs. Results:A total of 605 pediatric patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor resection were finally included, among which 391 children developed PPCs, with an incidence of 64.6%. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that body weight ( P=0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification ( P<0.001), preoperative hypoalbuminemia ( P=0.013), preoperative chemotherapy ( P=0.003), tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels ( P=0.002), anesthesia duration ( P<0.001), intraoperative fluid intake (ml·kg -1·h -1, P<0.001), intraoperative use of hypotensive agents ( P=0.047), and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach ( P<0.001) were risk factors for PPCs in children undergoing malignant tumor resection. Age ( P<0.001) was identified as a protective factor for PPCs. Conclusions:Body weight, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification, preoperative chemotherapy, preoperative hypoalbuminemia, tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels, anesthesia duration, intraoperative fluid intake, intraoperative use of hypotensive agents, and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach are risk factors for PPCs in pediatric patients undergoing open abdominal malignant tumor resection, whereas age is a protective factor for PPCs.

Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. ^“Infectious diseases^”, ^“early warning^” and ^“prediction^” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.

Objective:To analyse the influence of endometrial polyps (EPs) treatment on the frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) pregnancy outcome.Methods:Using a retrospective case-control study, the data of patients were collected who received in vitro fertilization (IVF) and hysteroscopy in the Reproductive Medicine Center of Children's Hospital of Shanxi and Women Health Center of Shanxi from June 2021 to December 2022. Patients undergoing hysteroscopy were studied. According to the diagnosis results of hysteroscopy and pathology, they were selected as the EPs group or the non-endometrial polyps (NEPs) group. Then analysis of EPs risk factors was made, and the pregnancy outcome of FET after the EPs treatment was compared. Results:A total of 3 413 patients underwent hysteroscopy in this study. The EPs group included 444 patients and the NEPs group included 1 501 patients respectively. The prevalence of EPs was 13.01% (444/3 413). There were significant differences between EPs group and NEPs group in gravidity, parity, spontaneous abortion times, induced abortions times, basal follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), basal luteinizing hormone (bLH), infertility duration, infertility types, the prevalence of chronic endometritis, the history of polyps removal and endometriosis (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors associated with EPs showed that infertility duration ( OR=1.068, 95% CI: 1.029-1.109, P<0.001), chronic endometritis ( OR=1.925, 95% CI: 1.481-2.502, P<0.001), primary infertility ( OR=1.803, 95% CI: 1.408-2.308, P<0.001), history of polyps removal ( OR=9.424, 95% CI: 5.586-15.897, P<0.001), endometriosis ( OR=2.432, 95% CI: 1.344-4.401, P=0.003) were independent risk factors for EPs, and bLH ( OR=0.954, 95% CI: 0.916-0.993, P=0.022) was an independent protective factor for EPs. Compared with NEPs transplantation group, there were no significant differences in clinical pregnancy rate, on-going pregnancy rate and none implantation rate in the EPs treatment transplantation group (all P>0.05). Conclusion:Infertility duration, chronic endometritis, primary infertility, history of polyps removal, endometriosis were independent risk factors, and bLH was an independent protective factor. Patients in EPs treatment transplantation group could achieve the similar pregnancy outcome as NEPs transplantation group.

Objective:To analyse the influence of endometrial polyps (EPs) treatment on the frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) pregnancy outcome.Methods:Using a retrospective case-control study, the data of patients were collected who received in vitro fertilization (IVF) and hysteroscopy in the Reproductive Medicine Center of Children's Hospital of Shanxi and Women Health Center of Shanxi from June 2021 to December 2022. Patients undergoing hysteroscopy were studied. According to the diagnosis results of hysteroscopy and pathology, they were selected as the EPs group or the non-endometrial polyps (NEPs) group. Then analysis of EPs risk factors was made, and the pregnancy outcome of FET after the EPs treatment was compared. Results:A total of 3 413 patients underwent hysteroscopy in this study. The EPs group included 444 patients and the NEPs group included 1 501 patients respectively. The prevalence of EPs was 13.01% (444/3 413). There were significant differences between EPs group and NEPs group in gravidity, parity, spontaneous abortion times, induced abortions times, basal follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), basal luteinizing hormone (bLH), infertility duration, infertility types, the prevalence of chronic endometritis, the history of polyps removal and endometriosis (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors associated with EPs showed that infertility duration ( OR=1.068, 95% CI: 1.029-1.109, P<0.001), chronic endometritis ( OR=1.925, 95% CI: 1.481-2.502, P<0.001), primary infertility ( OR=1.803, 95% CI: 1.408-2.308, P<0.001), history of polyps removal ( OR=9.424, 95% CI: 5.586-15.897, P<0.001), endometriosis ( OR=2.432, 95% CI: 1.344-4.401, P=0.003) were independent risk factors for EPs, and bLH ( OR=0.954, 95% CI: 0.916-0.993, P=0.022) was an independent protective factor for EPs. Compared with NEPs transplantation group, there were no significant differences in clinical pregnancy rate, on-going pregnancy rate and none implantation rate in the EPs treatment transplantation group (all P>0.05). Conclusion:Infertility duration, chronic endometritis, primary infertility, history of polyps removal, endometriosis were independent risk factors, and bLH was an independent protective factor. Patients in EPs treatment transplantation group could achieve the similar pregnancy outcome as NEPs transplantation group.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disease in reproductive-aged women, which is characterized by polycystic ovary changes, hyperandrogenism and anovulation. A large number of studies have confirmed that miRNAs play an important role in the pathophysiology of PCOS. The miRNA-17-92 gene cluster is a family of miRNAs containing multiple cistron clusters. It was initially considered to be an oncogene, but it can trigger a variety of physiological and pathological processes in many diseases. In recent years, more and more evidence has showed that miRNA-17-92 gene cluster plays an important role in the development of PCOS. In this study, we reviewed the roles of miRNA-17-92 gene cluster in the development of PCOS.

Recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) is a common adverse pregnancy outcome in women of childbearing age and its etiology is complex and still not clear. The maternal-fetal interface microenvironment plays a key role in maintaining pregnancy. There are trophoblast cells, decidual stromal cells and immune cells in the maternal-fetal interface microenvironment. The abnormal number or function of these cells may induce changes in the microenvironment of maternal-fetal interface, such as spiral artery remodeling disorder and abnormal decidualization, which may lead to RSA. This review discusses the role and mechanism of these three main cells in RSA.