1.Epidemiological characteristics of category C intestinal infectious diseases among children and adolescents in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2024 and the association with meteorological factors
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(4):553-557
Objective:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of category C intestinal infectious diseases among children and adolescents in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2024 and the association with meteorological factors, so as to provide a scientific basis for the targeted prevention and control of infectious diseases for children and adolescents.
Methods:
Using data from the "Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System" of the "China Disease Prevention and Control Information System" covering the period from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2024, the study analyzed clinical and confirmed cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea, and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among individuals aged 6-19 years old to describe demographic and temporal characteristics. It used Joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to analyze incidence trends, and Spearman s correlation was combined to generalize linear models so as to assess the association between category C intestinal infectious diseases and meteorological factors.
Results:
From 2012 to 2024, a cumulative total of 61 019 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children and adolescents, 58 498 cases of other infectious diarrhea, and 6 377 cases of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were reported. The AAPC in the incidence rates of these three diseases was 19.19%, 31.03% and 31.48 %, respectively(all P <0.05). Notably, the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease increased significantly after 2022 (APC= 133.66 %, P <0.01). The temporal distribution showed that hand,foot,and mouth disease was most prevalent in May,June and July (seasonal index of 2.39,3.64,1.97), other infectious diarrhea was most prevalent in February,March and December (seasonal index of 1.22,1.25,1.47), and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis peaked in September and October (seasonal index of 4.22,2.16). Monthly average temperature could increase the risk of hand,foot,and mouth disease( β = 0.18 ,95% CI =0.11-0.25); as monthly average wind speed increased, the incidence of other infectious diarrhea ( β =-0.86, 95% CI = -1.50 to -0.22) and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis ( β =-1.32, 95% CI =-2.60 to -0.05) both decreased (all P < 0.05 ).
Conclusions
Among children and adolescents in Shenzhen, category C intestinal infectious diseases remain prevalent throughout the year;the number of reported hand, foot, and mouth disease cases has shown an upward trend in recent years.Temperature and wind speed significantly affect the number of reported cases of three types with category C intestinal infectious diseases.
2.Prediction of immunotherapy targets for chronic cerebral hypoperfusion by bioinformatics method.
Mei ZHAO ; Yanpeng XUE ; Qingqing TIAN ; He YANG ; Qing JIANG ; Mengfan YU ; Xin CHEN
Journal of Biomedical Engineering 2025;42(2):382-388
Chronic cerebral hypoperfusion (CCH) plays an important role in the occurrence and development of vascular dementia (VD). Recent studies have indicated that multiple stages of immune-inflammatory response are involved in the process of cerebral ischemia, drawing increasing attention to immune therapies for cerebral ischemia. This study aims to identify potential immune therapeutic targets for CCH using bioinformatics methods from an immunological perspective. We identified a total of 823 differentially expressed genes associated with CCH, and further screened for 9 core immune-related genes, namely RASGRP1, FGF12, SEMA7A, PAK6, EDN3, BPHL, FCGRT, HSPA1B and MLNR. Gene enrichment analysis showed that core genes were mainly involved in biological functions such as cell growth, neural projection extension, and mesenchymal stem cell migration. Biological signaling pathway analysis indicated that core genes were mainly involved in the regulation of T cell receptor, Ras and MAPK signaling pathways. Through LASSO regression, we identified RASGRP1 and BPHL as key immune-related core genes. Additionally, by integrating differential miRNAs and the miRwalk database, we identified miR-216b-5p as a key immune-related miRNA that regulates RASGRP1. In summary, the predicted miR-216b-5p/ RASGRP1 signaling pathway plays a significant role in immune regulation during CCH, which may provide new targets for immune therapy in CCH.
Humans
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Computational Biology/methods*
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Brain Ischemia/therapy*
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Immunotherapy
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MicroRNAs/genetics*
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Signal Transduction
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Dementia, Vascular/genetics*
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Chronic Disease
3.Deep space environment empowering drug design and development.
Yanpeng FANG ; Bin FENG ; Weizheng LI ; Liyong ZHU ; Fei CHEN ; Wenbin ZENG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(8):1371-1384
The unique characteristics of the deep space environment, microgravity, cosmic radiation, and extreme temperature fluctuations, are emerging as major driving forces for pharmaceutical innovation. These factors provide new avenues for optimizing drug formulations, improving crystal structure quality, and accelerating the discovery of therapeutic targets. Advances in deep space research not only help overcome critical bottlenecks in terrestrial drug development but also promote progress in structure-based drug design and deepen understanding of cellular stress-response mechanisms. Current progress in space-based pharmaceutical research primarily includes the study of disease mechanisms under microgravity, protein crystallization in microgravity, and drug development utilizing deep space radiation and resources. However, the operational complexity, high costs, and limited data reproducibility of space experiments remain key challenges hindering widespread application. Looking ahead, with the integration of automation, artificial intelligence analysis, and on-orbit manufacturing, deep space drug development is expected to achieve greater scalability and precision, opening a new frontier in biopharmaceutical science.
Drug Design
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Drug Development/methods*
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Humans
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Weightlessness
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Space Flight
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Artificial Intelligence
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Extraterrestrial Environment
4.Nasal endoscopic treatment for nasal deformity secondary to unilateral cleft lip and palate using septal cartilage and bone
Dongqing WANG ; Ning XIAO ; Qingyong CHEN ; Liqiang LIN ; Yanpeng WANG ; Huaiqing LYU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;60(1):47-51
Objective:To explore the surgical methods and treatment outcomes of nasal endoscopic surgery for nasal deformity secondary to unilateral cleft lip and palate, combined with nasal septal deviation, using nasal septal cartilage and bone.Methods:Eleven patients who underwent surgical treatment for unilateral cleft lip and palate secondary to nasal deformity in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Linyi People′s Hospital, Shandong Second Medical University, from March 2021 to March 2023, were retrospectively analyzed. The cohort included 8 males and 3 females, aged (22.0±8.4) years (range: 17 to 35 years). Preoperatively, all of them underwent CT scanning and three-dimensional reconstruction of the nasal bones and sinuses to evaluate the size of the nasal septal cartilage and the design of the material to be taken, and to assess the degree of nasal deformity. During the operation, an open “V”-shaped incision was made through the nasal columella, and part of the septal bone and cartilage were removed under direct nasal endoscopic visualization. The septal cartilage and bony structures were used to correct the nasal deformity, and a nasal brace was used as an intraoperative support for the reconstruction of the nasal cartilage, which was then worn for 1 month after the operation to maintain a stable nasal shape. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used before and after surgery to assess the patient′s satisfaction with the nasal shape and the degree of nasal ventilation. Corresponding data on both sides of the external nose were measured, including nasal tip height, nostril height, nostril width, nasal base width, and nasal columella inclination, to assess the symmetry of the external nose objectively. SPSS 22.0 software was used for statistical analysis to evaluate the surgical results.Results:The surgical incisions of all 11 patients healed at stage Ⅰ. At 6-24 months of postoperative follow-up, nasal symmetry was restored, and the nostrils were equal in size. The difference in symmetry indexes before and after the surgery was statistically significant. The t value for nasal tip height, the nostril height, the nostril width, the nasal base width, and the nasal columellar inclination were 4.21, 2.26, 3.38, 3.65, and 2.36, respectively (all P<0.05). Postoperative incision scarring was not obvious, and patients were satisfied with the nasal appearance [VAS score (9.14±0.48) points vs (3.45±1.23) points, t=14.29, P<0.001], and nasal ventilation was significantly improved [VAS score (9.32±1.24) points vs (4.61±0.85) points, t=10.39, P<0.001]. Conclusion:Nasal endoscopic surgery using septal cartilage and bone to treat nasal deformity secondary to unilateral cleft lip and palate, combined with deviated septum, can simultaneously improve the patients′ nasal shape and nasal ventilation, yielding good clinical outcomes.
5.Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
Huiyang SUN ; Qiuying LYU ; Fengjuan CHEN ; Honglin WANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Zhen ZHANG ; Ling YIN ; Xuan ZOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1188-1195
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.
6.Temporal distribution characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Shenzhen, 2011-2023
Lixia SONG ; Wenhai LU ; Zhen ZHANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Huawei XIONG ; Yan LU ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1610-1616
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.
7.Epidemiological characteristics of chronic hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model based on socio-demographic index in Shenzhen, 2005-2023
Huawei XIONG ; Liming CAO ; Yanpeng CHEN ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN ; Jing REN ; Yan LU ; Zhen ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1623-1631
Objectives:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of chronic hepatitis B in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2023, develop a prediction models with performance evaluation, explore its associations with social demographic index (SDI) and inform targeted prevention strategy development.Methods:Based on surveillance data of infectious diseases, descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. A multifactorial prediction model integrating the SDI was established, and its predictive performance was evaluated by using data from 2020-2023. Model accuracy was evaluated by using root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). The association between SDI and incidence rates was assessed through generalized linear models. Results:A total of 235 703 chronic hepatitis B cases were reported cumulatively in Shenzhen from 2005-2023, with an annual average incidence rate of 98.84/100 000. Long-term trends revealed a significant increase in the incidence from 2005 to 2019. The incidence rate was 2.48 times higher in men than in women, and the majority of cases occurred in age group 20-50 years. The cases were mainly workers in manufacturing and services. Seasonal incidence peaks were observed in March and during May to November. The overall SDI exhibited a consistent upward trend, and the positive correlation between SDI and incidence rate was observed in central urban districts (Futian and Nanshan). In contrast, industrial zones (Guangming and Bao'an) saw a significant decline in incidence rates due to intensified prevention interventions despite the increase of SDI level. Model predictions indicated that the multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model integrating SDI parameters outperformed both the spatiotemporal covariate- enhanced model and the augmented Bayesian structural time series model, with MAPE of 4.71%, 7.66% and 10.30%, respectively. Conclusion:SDI is a key social determinant associated with hepatitis B transmission risks, and dynamic thresholds can be established to develop tiered early warning mechanisms. It is suggested to integrate multisource SDI data into the LSTM framework, implement targeted interventions such as "rapid antibody screening in key areas + vaccination boosters for high-risk populations" and improve the timeliness of epidemic response through hybrid models to reduce disease burden level.
8.Construction and verification of an early prediction model for visual benefit of diabetic macular edema after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treat-ment
Yu YAN ; Qin ZHONG ; Yanpeng CHEN ; Lei YANG ; Gangyi LI ; Shuangle LI
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2025;45(4):298-304
Objective To construct and verify an early prediction model for visual benefit of diabetic macular edema(DME)after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)treatment based on clinical data,optical coherence tomo-graphy angiography(OCTA),serum brain tissue aquaporin-4(AQP4)mRNA and total bilirubin(TBIL)levels.Methods A total of 480 patients(480 eyes)with DME treated in the First People's Hospital of Zigong City from October 2021 to March 2024 were selected and divided into a modeling set(320 cases)and a validation set(160 cases)at a ratio of 2∶1.According to the visual benefit after anti-VEGF treatment,patients in the modeling set were further divided into a benefit group(80 cases)and a non-benefit group(240 cases).The baseline data of the two groups of patients were collected,and the factors influencing visual benefits in DME patients after anti-VEGF treatment were analyzed.An early prediction model was constructed and validated both internally and externally.Results The inter-group comparison results showed that the diabetes duration in the non-benefit group was longer than that in the benefit group(P<0.05).The proportion of smokers,the best corrected visual acuity(BCVA),the minimum resolution angle(logMAR)vision,hemoglobin A1c(HbAlc)and AQP4 mRNA levels were higher in the non-benefit group than those in the benefit group(all P<0.05).The foveal retinal deep capillary plexus blood flow density(DCP-VD),central macular thickness(CMT),and TBIL levels were lower in the non-benefit group than those in the benefit group(all P<0.05).The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LAS-SO)-Logistic regression analysis showed that the factors influencing visual benefit in DME patients after anti-VEGF treat-ment were CMT,BCVA(logMAR),HbAlc,AQP4 mRNA levels,foveal DCP-VD,and TBIL levels.The predictive risk con-sistency index of the nomogram model constructed based on the above-mentioned influencing factors for visual benefit pre-diction after anti-VEGF treatment was 0.844.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the area un-der the ROC curve(AUC)of the model was 0.844(95% CI:0.797-0.891)in the modeling set and 0.898(95% CI:0.847-0.949)in the validation set.The decision analysis curve showed that when the high-risk threshold of the modeling set ranged between 0 and 82% and that of the validation set ranged between 0 and 100%,the model could bring net clinical benefits.Conclusion CMT,BCVA(logMAR),HbAlc,AQP4 mRNA levels,foveal DCP-VD,and TBIL levels are the fac-tors influencing visual benefit in DME patients after anti-VEGF treatment.The visual benefit prediction model constructed based on these factors has high accuracy and stability,and can be used as an effective tool for clinical prediction of visual benefit after treatment.
9.Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
Huiyang SUN ; Qiuying LYU ; Fengjuan CHEN ; Honglin WANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Zhen ZHANG ; Ling YIN ; Xuan ZOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(7):1188-1195
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.
10.Temporal distribution characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Shenzhen, 2011-2023
Lixia SONG ; Wenhai LU ; Zhen ZHANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Huawei XIONG ; Yan LU ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1610-1616
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.


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