1.Analysis of clinical characteristics of 442 measles cases
Shiheng CUI ; Xiaomeng XU ; Wei WANG ; Yafei WANG ; Li SUN ; Yanli CONG ; Jinghui WANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(2):45-48
Objective To analyze the clinical characteristics of measles cases in the measles elimination stage and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention, control, diagnosis and treatment of measles. Methods The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the clinical characteristics of 442 confirmed measles cases in Hebei Province from 2018 to 2020. Results Among the 442 measles cases, the main symptoms were rash (96.61%), fever (90.50%), cough (56.11%), and Koplik spots (30.09%). Complications were mainly pneumonia (12.22%). There were significant differences in symptoms among different age groups (P < 0.05). The incidence of symptoms in children under 5 years old (except cough) was higher than that in other age groups. Immunization history had no significant impact on the symptoms of fever and rash (P > 0.05), but the incidence of symptoms such as cough, conjunctivitis, Koplik's spots and catarrhal rhinitis in the immunized group was lower than that in the non-immunized group (P < 0.05). The group with an interval of 0 days from fever to rash was the largest, and the proportion of people with an immunization history in the 0-day group (68.06%) was significantly higher than that in the 3-4-day group (49.44%) (P < 0.05). Pneumonia complications were mainly concentrated in children under 5 years old (87.03%), and most of the cases had a 0-dose immunization history (81.48%). Conclusion In the measles elimination stage, the incidence of fever and rash in cases is relatively high, while the incidence of Koplik spots is relatively low. The symptoms are more obvious in the younger age group. Vaccination can reduce the incidence of specific symptoms. The change in the time of rash appearance suggests that the diagnosis and treatment plan need to be adjusted. This study provides key data support for the formulation of measles prevention, control and treatment strategies.
2.Mechanism of Number 2 Feibi Recipe in Ameliorating Pulmonary Fibrosis in Mice by Modulating Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress in AT2 Cells to Attenuate Apoptosis and Promote Alveolar Repair
Yaodong CAI ; Jialing BEI ; Wan WEI ; Chengyan XU ; Yanli LIU ; Yong WANG ; Yang JIAO ; Yun CHEN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):80-92
ObjectiveTo investigate the intervention mechanism of the traditional Chinese medicine Number 2 Feibi recipe (N2FBR) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), focusing on its effects on endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, apoptosis, stemness maintenance, and regenerative capacity of alveolar type Ⅱ epithelial cells (AT2 cells), and to validate the modern translational pathway of the theory of "deficiency of Zong Qi leading to pulmonary atelectasis and atrophy". MethodsA mouse model of pulmonary fibrosis was induced by bleomycin (BLM). Mice were randomly divided into blank control, model, low-, and high-dose N2FBR intervention groups (9.1, 18.2 g·kg-1), and prednisolone intervention group (6.5 mg·kg-1). Pulmonary histopathological changes and collagen deposition were evaluated using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and Masson's trichrome staining. Hydroxyproline (HYP) content was measured by the alkaline hydrolysis method. Lung coefficient and pulmonary function parameters were evaluated. The mRNA expression levels of fibrosis-related factors, including collagen type Ⅰ alpha 1 chain (ColIa1), alpha-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (Timp1), were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR). Cell apoptosis was assessed using the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) assay. Apoptosis of AT2 cells was further evaluated by double immunofluorescence staining for surfactant protein C (SPC) and cysteine-aspartic protease-3 (Caspase-3). Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in AT2 cells was examined by double staining for SPC and protein kinase R-like endoplasmic reticulum kinase (PERK). Ultrastructural changes of ER and lamellar bodies in AT2 cells were observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The expression levels of key proteins involved in ER stress and apoptosis pathways, including PERK, activating transcription factor 4 (ATF4), and Caspase-3, were detected by Western blot. Double immunofluorescence staining of SPC and Ki-67 antigen (Ki-67) was performed to evaluate the proliferative capacity of AT2 cells. Lineage tracing technology (labeling AT2 cells with GFP) combined with Krt8 labeling was used to evaluate intermediate differentiation states, and morphological transformation of AT2 cells into alveolar type Ⅰ epithelial cells (AT1) was observed. ResultsBLM-induced mice exhibited significant structural disruption of lung tissue, increased collagen deposition, elevated lung coefficient, decreased pulmonary function, and upregulation of fibrosis-related factors (P<0.01). High-dose N2FBR treatment significantly ameliorated lung tissue damage and dysfunction, significantly reduced HYP content (P<0.01), and significantly downregulated ColIa1, α-SMA, and Timp1 expression (P<0.01). Apoptosis analysis showed increased TUNEL-positive and Caspase-3-positive AT2 cells in the model group, which was significantly reduced by high-dose N2FBR treatment. TEM revealed swollen ER structures in AT2 cells of the model group, which tended to return to normal following treatment. PERK protein staining analysis showed evident ER stress in AT2 cells of the model group, which were markedly alleviated in the treatment group. The expression levels of ER stress-related proteins PERK and ATF4, as well as the apoptosis-related protein Caspase-3, were elevated in the model group and significantly reduced after treatment. TEM also revealed disrupted lamellar body structures in the model group, which tended to recover in the treatment group. Regarding the proliferative capacity of AT2 cells, the proportion of Ki-67⁺SPC⁺ AT2 cells significantly increased in the treatment group (P<0.01). Lineage tracing showed that the proportion of keratin 8-positive green fluorescent protein-positive (Krt8⁺GFP⁺) cells increased in the model group, indicating differentiation arrest. This proportion was significantly reduced in the treatment group, and the morphology of GFP⁺ cells exhibited a flattened, extended shape, suggesting restored differentiation toward AT1 cells. ConclusionN2FBR alleviates ER stress in AT2 cells, reduces AT2 cell apoptosis, restores lamellar body structure and function, enhances proliferation activity, and alleviates differentiation arrest to promote differentiation into AT1 cells, thereby repairing the alveolar epithelium and effectively blocking the progression of pulmonary fibrosis. Its traditional Chinese medicine mechanism of "replenishing Zong Qi, harmonizing Qi and blood, and unblocking pulmonary meridians" closely aligns with the modern regulatory pathway of AT2 stem cells, providing a novel theoretical basis and experimental evidence for the intervention of IPF with traditional Chinese medicine.
3.Mechanism of Number 2 Feibi Recipe in Ameliorating Pulmonary Fibrosis in Mice by Modulating Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress in AT2 Cells to Attenuate Apoptosis and Promote Alveolar Repair
Yaodong CAI ; Jialing BEI ; Wan WEI ; Chengyan XU ; Yanli LIU ; Yong WANG ; Yang JIAO ; Yun CHEN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):80-92
ObjectiveTo investigate the intervention mechanism of the traditional Chinese medicine Number 2 Feibi recipe (N2FBR) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), focusing on its effects on endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, apoptosis, stemness maintenance, and regenerative capacity of alveolar type Ⅱ epithelial cells (AT2 cells), and to validate the modern translational pathway of the theory of "deficiency of Zong Qi leading to pulmonary atelectasis and atrophy". MethodsA mouse model of pulmonary fibrosis was induced by bleomycin (BLM). Mice were randomly divided into blank control, model, low-, and high-dose N2FBR intervention groups (9.1, 18.2 g·kg-1), and prednisolone intervention group (6.5 mg·kg-1). Pulmonary histopathological changes and collagen deposition were evaluated using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and Masson's trichrome staining. Hydroxyproline (HYP) content was measured by the alkaline hydrolysis method. Lung coefficient and pulmonary function parameters were evaluated. The mRNA expression levels of fibrosis-related factors, including collagen type Ⅰ alpha 1 chain (ColIa1), alpha-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (Timp1), were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR). Cell apoptosis was assessed using the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) assay. Apoptosis of AT2 cells was further evaluated by double immunofluorescence staining for surfactant protein C (SPC) and cysteine-aspartic protease-3 (Caspase-3). Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in AT2 cells was examined by double staining for SPC and protein kinase R-like endoplasmic reticulum kinase (PERK). Ultrastructural changes of ER and lamellar bodies in AT2 cells were observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The expression levels of key proteins involved in ER stress and apoptosis pathways, including PERK, activating transcription factor 4 (ATF4), and Caspase-3, were detected by Western blot. Double immunofluorescence staining of SPC and Ki-67 antigen (Ki-67) was performed to evaluate the proliferative capacity of AT2 cells. Lineage tracing technology (labeling AT2 cells with GFP) combined with Krt8 labeling was used to evaluate intermediate differentiation states, and morphological transformation of AT2 cells into alveolar type Ⅰ epithelial cells (AT1) was observed. ResultsBLM-induced mice exhibited significant structural disruption of lung tissue, increased collagen deposition, elevated lung coefficient, decreased pulmonary function, and upregulation of fibrosis-related factors (P<0.01). High-dose N2FBR treatment significantly ameliorated lung tissue damage and dysfunction, significantly reduced HYP content (P<0.01), and significantly downregulated ColIa1, α-SMA, and Timp1 expression (P<0.01). Apoptosis analysis showed increased TUNEL-positive and Caspase-3-positive AT2 cells in the model group, which was significantly reduced by high-dose N2FBR treatment. TEM revealed swollen ER structures in AT2 cells of the model group, which tended to return to normal following treatment. PERK protein staining analysis showed evident ER stress in AT2 cells of the model group, which were markedly alleviated in the treatment group. The expression levels of ER stress-related proteins PERK and ATF4, as well as the apoptosis-related protein Caspase-3, were elevated in the model group and significantly reduced after treatment. TEM also revealed disrupted lamellar body structures in the model group, which tended to recover in the treatment group. Regarding the proliferative capacity of AT2 cells, the proportion of Ki-67⁺SPC⁺ AT2 cells significantly increased in the treatment group (P<0.01). Lineage tracing showed that the proportion of keratin 8-positive green fluorescent protein-positive (Krt8⁺GFP⁺) cells increased in the model group, indicating differentiation arrest. This proportion was significantly reduced in the treatment group, and the morphology of GFP⁺ cells exhibited a flattened, extended shape, suggesting restored differentiation toward AT1 cells. ConclusionN2FBR alleviates ER stress in AT2 cells, reduces AT2 cell apoptosis, restores lamellar body structure and function, enhances proliferation activity, and alleviates differentiation arrest to promote differentiation into AT1 cells, thereby repairing the alveolar epithelium and effectively blocking the progression of pulmonary fibrosis. Its traditional Chinese medicine mechanism of "replenishing Zong Qi, harmonizing Qi and blood, and unblocking pulmonary meridians" closely aligns with the modern regulatory pathway of AT2 stem cells, providing a novel theoretical basis and experimental evidence for the intervention of IPF with traditional Chinese medicine.
4.Pharmacokinetic Analysis of Ziyuglycoside Ⅰ in Normal and Acute Kidney Injury Rats
Yunhui ZHANG ; Yanli LIU ; Qiongming XU ; Shuding SUN ; Hongjin ZHU ; Di ZHAO ; Suxiang FENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(5):203-210
ObjectiveBased on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-electrostatic field orbital trap-linear ion-trap mass spectrometry(UPLC-Orbitrap Fusion Lumos Tribrid-MS), the plasma concentration of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ was determined at different time points after oral administration, and its pharmacokinetic characteristics in normal rats and rats with acute kidney injury were compared. MethodsRats were randomly divided into normal group and model group, the model group received intraperitoneal cisplatin(10 mg·kg-1) to establish the acute kidney injury model, the normal group was given the same volume of saline. After successful modeling, rats in the normal and model groups were randomly divided into the normal low, medium and high dose groups(2.5, 5, 7.5 mg·kg-1) and the model low, medium and high dose groups(2.5, 5, 7.5 mg·kg-1), 6 rats in each group, and the plasma was collected at different time points after receiving the corresponding dose of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ. Then, the concentration of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ in rat plasma was determined by UPLC-Orbitrap Fusion Lumos Tribrid-MS, and the drug-time curve was poltted. The pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated by Kinetica 5.1 software, and the differences in pharmacokinetic parameters between different administration groups were compared by independent sample t-test with SPSS 22.0. ResultsThe pharmacokinetic results showed that after receiving the different doses of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ, its concentration increased first and then decreased, and all of them reached the maximum plasma concentration at about 0.5 h. The area under the curve(AUC0-t) and mean retention time(MRT0-t) of normal and model rats increased with the increased dose, and the clearance(CL) decreased with the increasing dose. Compared with the normal group, the AUC0-t was significantly increased(P<0.01), peak concentration(Cmax) and CL decreased in model rats at different doses, indicating that the physiological state of the rats could affect the absorption and elimination of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ in vivo. ConclusionThe pharmacokinetic characteristics of ziyuglycoside Ⅰ are quite different in normal rats and acute kidney injury model rats, which may be due to the change of the body environment in the pathological state, then lead to changes in absorption and metabolic processes.
5.Evaluation of operation quality of measles surveillance system in Hebei Province in 2020 - 2023
Shiheng CUI ; Xiaomeng XU ; Li SUN ; Yafei WANG ; Wei WANG ; Yanli CONG ; Jinghui WANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(2):26-29
Objective To analyze the operation of Measles Surveillance System (MSS) in Hebei Province, and to provide evidence for measles elimination. Methods Measles surveillance data was collected from the MSS from 2020 to 2023, and a modified weighted technology for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was used to evaluate the surveillance indexes of measles in Hebei Province. Results The operation quality of the measles surveillance system in Hebei Province was improved year by year, with the highest quality in 2023, and all the indicators reached the monitoring program standards. The quality of measles surveillance system was not balanced among cities, and the main influencing factor was the substandard sensitivity indicators. The quality of measles surveillance system was the highest in Baoding City and the lowest in Zhangjiakou City. Conclusion The measles surveillance system in Hebei province is running well, and the sensitivity of the surveillance system should be improved to keep the high-quality operation of the surveillance system.
6.The association between dietary fiber intake and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality in patients with stroke: a retrospective cohort study of NHANES
Yanli LI ; Lanqun LIU ; Zufu YANG ; Mingyu LI ; Tao TANG ; Jimin XU
Nutrition Research and Practice 2025;19(1):41-54
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:
Stroke represents the primary cause of death and persistent disability globally, leading to around 5.5 million annual patient fatalities. The objective was to explore the relationship of dietary fiber with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in patients with stroke.
SUBJECTS/METHODS:
We extracted stroke patients’ data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. All-cause and CVD mortality were outcomes. Dietary fiber consists of non-digestible forms of carbohydrates, usually polysaccharides that originate from plant-based foods. Covariates including demographic data, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and medication use were screened using the weighted multivariate Cox regression models with backward elimination. Weighted univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to explore the relationship between dietary fiber intake and all-cause/CVD mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The association was further investigated in different subgroups.
RESULTS:
A total of 1,578 patients with stroke were included, of whom 688 (43.6%) died.Total fiber and vegetable fiber intake were analyzed as categorical variables, and the lowest intake was considered reference groups. High intake of total fiber (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57–0.94) and high intake of vegetable fiber (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48–0.82) were related to lower all-cause mortality risk in individuals with stroke. Similar findings were also observed between higher total fiber (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.37–0.85) and vegetable fiber intake (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.36–0.89) with decreased CVD mortality risk. The relationship between higher total fiber intake and lower all-cause mortality risk was discovered in individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, smoking, non-CVD, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). High total fiber, or vegetable fiber consumption was linked to lower CVD mortality risk in stroke individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, females, body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m 2 , non-smoking, and CKD.
CONCLUSION
Dietary fiber intake and vegetable fiber intake may benefit the prognosis of patients with stroke. Increasing dietary fiber consumption, especially vegetable fiber intake, potentially benefits the prognosis of stroke patients.
7.Prediction of primary biliary cholangitis among health check-up population with anti-mitochondrial M2 antibody positive
Haolong LI ; Song LIU ; Xu WANG ; Xinxin FENG ; Siyu WANG ; Yanli ZHANG ; Fengchun ZHANG ; Li WANG ; Tengda XU ; Yongzhe LI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(2):474-488
Background:
s/Aims: Anti-mitochondrial M2 antibody (AMA-M2) is a specific marker for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and it could be also present in non-PBC individuals.
Methods:
A total of 72,173 Chinese health check-up individuals tested AMA-M2, of which non-PBC AMA-M2 positive individuals were performed follow-up. Baseline data of both clinical characteristics and laboratory examinations were collected in all AMA-M2-positive individuals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to investigate the potential variables for developing PBC.
Results:
A total of 2,333 individuals were positive with AMA-M2. Eighty-two individuals had a medical history of PBC or fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of PBC at baseline, and 2,076 individuals were non-PBC. After a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 0.6% developed PBC, with an accumulative 5-year incidence rate of 0.5%. LASSO regression showed that levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), immunoglobulin M (IgM), eosinophilia proportion (EOS%), gamma globulin percentage, and hemoglobin (HGB) were potential variables for developing PBC. Multivariate Cox regression is used to construct a predictive model based on 7 selected variables, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve of the prediction model at 3, 5, and 10 years were, respectively, 1.000, 0.875, and 0.917.
Conclusions
This study offers insights into the onset of PBC among individuals who tested positive for AMA-M2 during routine health check-ups. The prediction model based on ALP, GGT, IgM, EOS%, gamma globulin percentage, HGB, and sex has a certain predictive ability for the occurrence of PBC in this population.
8.The association between dietary fiber intake and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality in patients with stroke: a retrospective cohort study of NHANES
Yanli LI ; Lanqun LIU ; Zufu YANG ; Mingyu LI ; Tao TANG ; Jimin XU
Nutrition Research and Practice 2025;19(1):41-54
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:
Stroke represents the primary cause of death and persistent disability globally, leading to around 5.5 million annual patient fatalities. The objective was to explore the relationship of dietary fiber with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in patients with stroke.
SUBJECTS/METHODS:
We extracted stroke patients’ data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. All-cause and CVD mortality were outcomes. Dietary fiber consists of non-digestible forms of carbohydrates, usually polysaccharides that originate from plant-based foods. Covariates including demographic data, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and medication use were screened using the weighted multivariate Cox regression models with backward elimination. Weighted univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to explore the relationship between dietary fiber intake and all-cause/CVD mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The association was further investigated in different subgroups.
RESULTS:
A total of 1,578 patients with stroke were included, of whom 688 (43.6%) died.Total fiber and vegetable fiber intake were analyzed as categorical variables, and the lowest intake was considered reference groups. High intake of total fiber (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57–0.94) and high intake of vegetable fiber (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48–0.82) were related to lower all-cause mortality risk in individuals with stroke. Similar findings were also observed between higher total fiber (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.37–0.85) and vegetable fiber intake (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.36–0.89) with decreased CVD mortality risk. The relationship between higher total fiber intake and lower all-cause mortality risk was discovered in individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, smoking, non-CVD, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). High total fiber, or vegetable fiber consumption was linked to lower CVD mortality risk in stroke individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, females, body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m 2 , non-smoking, and CKD.
CONCLUSION
Dietary fiber intake and vegetable fiber intake may benefit the prognosis of patients with stroke. Increasing dietary fiber consumption, especially vegetable fiber intake, potentially benefits the prognosis of stroke patients.
9.The association between dietary fiber intake and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality in patients with stroke: a retrospective cohort study of NHANES
Yanli LI ; Lanqun LIU ; Zufu YANG ; Mingyu LI ; Tao TANG ; Jimin XU
Nutrition Research and Practice 2025;19(1):41-54
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:
Stroke represents the primary cause of death and persistent disability globally, leading to around 5.5 million annual patient fatalities. The objective was to explore the relationship of dietary fiber with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in patients with stroke.
SUBJECTS/METHODS:
We extracted stroke patients’ data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. All-cause and CVD mortality were outcomes. Dietary fiber consists of non-digestible forms of carbohydrates, usually polysaccharides that originate from plant-based foods. Covariates including demographic data, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and medication use were screened using the weighted multivariate Cox regression models with backward elimination. Weighted univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to explore the relationship between dietary fiber intake and all-cause/CVD mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The association was further investigated in different subgroups.
RESULTS:
A total of 1,578 patients with stroke were included, of whom 688 (43.6%) died.Total fiber and vegetable fiber intake were analyzed as categorical variables, and the lowest intake was considered reference groups. High intake of total fiber (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57–0.94) and high intake of vegetable fiber (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48–0.82) were related to lower all-cause mortality risk in individuals with stroke. Similar findings were also observed between higher total fiber (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.37–0.85) and vegetable fiber intake (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.36–0.89) with decreased CVD mortality risk. The relationship between higher total fiber intake and lower all-cause mortality risk was discovered in individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, smoking, non-CVD, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). High total fiber, or vegetable fiber consumption was linked to lower CVD mortality risk in stroke individuals aged ≥ 60 yrs, females, body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m 2 , non-smoking, and CKD.
CONCLUSION
Dietary fiber intake and vegetable fiber intake may benefit the prognosis of patients with stroke. Increasing dietary fiber consumption, especially vegetable fiber intake, potentially benefits the prognosis of stroke patients.
10.Prediction of primary biliary cholangitis among health check-up population with anti-mitochondrial M2 antibody positive
Haolong LI ; Song LIU ; Xu WANG ; Xinxin FENG ; Siyu WANG ; Yanli ZHANG ; Fengchun ZHANG ; Li WANG ; Tengda XU ; Yongzhe LI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(2):474-488
Background:
s/Aims: Anti-mitochondrial M2 antibody (AMA-M2) is a specific marker for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and it could be also present in non-PBC individuals.
Methods:
A total of 72,173 Chinese health check-up individuals tested AMA-M2, of which non-PBC AMA-M2 positive individuals were performed follow-up. Baseline data of both clinical characteristics and laboratory examinations were collected in all AMA-M2-positive individuals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to investigate the potential variables for developing PBC.
Results:
A total of 2,333 individuals were positive with AMA-M2. Eighty-two individuals had a medical history of PBC or fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of PBC at baseline, and 2,076 individuals were non-PBC. After a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 0.6% developed PBC, with an accumulative 5-year incidence rate of 0.5%. LASSO regression showed that levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), immunoglobulin M (IgM), eosinophilia proportion (EOS%), gamma globulin percentage, and hemoglobin (HGB) were potential variables for developing PBC. Multivariate Cox regression is used to construct a predictive model based on 7 selected variables, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve of the prediction model at 3, 5, and 10 years were, respectively, 1.000, 0.875, and 0.917.
Conclusions
This study offers insights into the onset of PBC among individuals who tested positive for AMA-M2 during routine health check-ups. The prediction model based on ALP, GGT, IgM, EOS%, gamma globulin percentage, HGB, and sex has a certain predictive ability for the occurrence of PBC in this population.


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