Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Objective: To investigate the prevalence of undernutrition and its associated factors among left behind and non left behind primary and secondary school students in the Nutrition Improvement Program for Rural Compulsory Education Students (NIPRCES) areas of central and western China, so as to provide evidence for improving the nutritional status of children and adolescents. Methods: A survey was conducted among 123 782 students selected by random cluster sampling method in grades 3-9 from NIPRCES in central (Hebei, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Hubei, and Hainan) and western (Gansu, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Tibet, Shaanxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Yunnan, Qinghai, and Chongqing) China in 2023. Anthropometric measurements and questionnaires were used to assess nutritional and dietary status. The prevalence of undernutrition was compared between left behind and non left behind students by Chi square test, and associated factors were analyzed by three level Logistic mixed effects model. Results: The prevalence of undernutrition was 8.5% (4 326) in left behind students and 8.1% (5 905) in non left behind students. Three level Logistic mixed effect model analysis showed that whether left behind or non left behind, the undernutrition rates of primary and secondary students in western regions were higher than those of students in central regions [ OR (95% CI )=1.72(1.57-1.87),2.25(2.07- 2.43 )]; the undernutrition risk was lower for those whose fathers had a cultural level of high school or above [ OR (95% CI )=0.69(0.62-0.77),0.90(0.82-0.98)] or junior high school [ OR (95% CI )=0.72(0.66-0.79),0.92(0.85-0.99)] compared to those with primary school or below; picky eating or selective eating increased the risk of undernutrition [ OR (95% CI )=2.36(2.07-2.68),2.28(2.04-2.55)], and primary and secondary school students without nutritional content in health education classes had higher rates of undernutrition [ OR (95% CI )=1.12(1.03-1.23),1.09(1.01-1.17)](all P <0.05). Conclusion The prevalence of undernutrition is slightly higher in left behind primary and secondary students than in non left behind primary and secondary students in central and western NIPRCES areas, with variations across different characteristics.

OBJECTIVE To preliminarily investigate the antiasthmatic effect and mechanism of Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum herb pair on the respiratory center. METHODS Male SD rats were randomly divided into blank group， model group， dexamethasone group （positive control）， and Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum 2∶1， 1∶1 and 1∶2 groups. Rats in each group were administered different ratios of the herb pair decoction [all at 18 g （crude drug）/kg]， dexamethasone suspension （0.5 mg/kg）， or normal saline intragastrically twice daily for seven consecutive days. Forty minutes after the last administration， medicated cerebrospinal fluid was collected to determine the content of effective components entering the brain. One and a half hours after the last administration， the nucleus tractus solitarius （NTS） was located using a stereotaxic apparatus. Histamine phosphate （1 μL） was injected into the NTS region at a constant rate of 1 μL/min using a 10 μL microsyringe to induce excitation of the respiratory center in rats； the blank group was injected with normal saline. The contents of neurotransmitters [nerve growth factor （NGF）， substance P （SP）， norepinephrine （NA）， 5-hydroxytryptamine （5-HT） and acetylcholine （Ach）] in the medulla oblongata brain tissue were detected. The mRNA expressions of neurokinin-1 receptor （NK-1R）， p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase （MAPK）， and c-fos in the medulla oblongata， as well as the protein expressions of NK-1R， p38 MAPK， and c-fos in the NTS region， were determined. RESULTS The main active components of Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum herb pair entering the brain were ephedrine， pseudoephedrine， and methylephedrine. Compared with blank group， the contents of NGF， SP， NA， 5-HT and Ach， and the relative expression levels of NK-1R， p38 MAPK， and c-fos mRNA and protein were significantly increased in the model group （ P ＜0.01）. Compared with model group， Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum herb pair groups with different ratios significantly reduced the neurotransmitter contents and the relative expression levels of NK-1R， p38 MAPK， and c-fos mRNA and protein （ P ＜0.01）， with the 2∶1 Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum herb pair and 1∶1 mass ratios showing relatively better effects. CONCLUSIONS Ephedrae Herba alkaloids are the main active components in affecting the function of the respiratory center. The herb pair groups with a larger proportion of Ephedrae Herba exhibit stronger effects. Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum herb pair can reduce the excitability of the respiratory center by down-regulating the expression of the NK-1R/MAPK/c-fos pathway in the NTS and decreasing the abnormal release of neurotransmitters such as NGF and SP.

ObjectiveTo investigate the protective effect of α-ketoglutarate （α-KG） on hepatic lipid deposition in offspring caused by arsenic exposure during pregnancy. Methods8-week-old institute of cancer research （ICR） mice were mated in a ratio of 2∶1 between females and males， and the detection of vaginal plugs confirmed pregnant. A total of 32 pregnant mice were randomly divided into four groups： control group， arsenic group， α-KG group， arsenic+α-KG group. On gestational day 0-16 （GD0-GD16）， the arsenic and arsenic+α-KG groups were exposed to sodium arsenite （NaAsO₂ ，15 mg/L） in drinking water everyday， and the α-KG and arsenic+α-KG groups were gavaged with α-KG （2 g/kg） everyday. On GD16， pregnant mice were euthanized to collect fetal liver， and fetal body weight and crown-rump length were measured. Gene expression differences between the control group and the arsenic group were analyzed by transcriptome. The total triglycerides （TGs） and subtypes in fetal liver were detected by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry （LC-MS/MS）. Oil red O staining was used to observe the histopathological changes in the liver. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction （qPCR） was used to detect the expression level of genes related to lipid synthesis， transport， and degradation， and phosphatidylinositol 3' -kinase/ protein kinase B （PI3K/AKT） in the liver of fetus. ResultsTranscriptomics analysis showed that 2 144 genes were downregulated and 1 675 genes were upregulated in the arsenic exposed fetal liver； body weight and crown-rump length were reduced （P_TuKey<0.05）； the level of hepatic TGs was elevated in arsenic group （P_TuKey<0.05）； oil-red O staining showed a significant increase in lipid droplets in arsenic group （P_TuKey<0.01）； the expression of lipid synthesis-related genes were significantly upregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression of β-oxidation-related genes and lipid degradation-related genes were downregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression of PI3K， AKT decreased（P_TuKey<0.05）. Compared with the arsenic group， the body weight and crown-rump length of fetus increased in the arsenic+α-KG group （P_TuKey<0.05）； the level of hepatic TGs decreased in the arsenic+α-KG group （P_TuKey<0.05）； oil red O staining showed lipid droplets significantly decreased （P_TuKey<0.01）； the expression of lipid synthesis-related genes were downregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）， the expression of β-oxidation-related genes and lipid degradation-related genes were upregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression levels of PI3K and AKT increased （P_TuKey<0.05）. Conclusionα-KG alleviated hepatic lipid deposition in offspring exposed to arsenic during pregnancy through activating PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.

Current formulation of objective performance criteria （OPC） in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） faces methodological challenges， including poor reporting quality， insufficient standardization of methods， limited comparability of study populations， and inadequate consideration of the genetic and environment particularities of ethnic minority populations. In response to these issues， this paper proposes optimization strategies for setting OPC in TCM， with particular attention to ethnic minority medicine. These include improving methodological techniques and statistical descriptions， ensuring transparency in meta-analyses and data sources； standardizing the estimation of point estimates and confidence intervals， and incorporating multidisciplinary expert consensus for value determination； introducing local real-world data from the same period， especially cohort study evidence， to compensate for the lack of high-quality randomized controlled trial data. Through process transparency and dynamic updating mechanisms， the credibility of OPC method can be enhanced， thereby providing methodological support for strengthening evidence-based research capacity in this field.

Objective To gain insights into the biological characteristics of different populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus within and around the Yellow Sea wetland from the perspective of the occurrence of resistance, we investigated the levels of resistance to deltamethrin and kdr gene mutation in the wetland and its peripheral areas. Methods Specimens were collected from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations at two monitoring sites in the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area, and also from two populations in Yancheng City and the Liuhe District of Nanjing, and the resistance of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin was determined using the CDC biotest bottle method. For each concentration of deltamethrin assessed, a random subset of exposed specimens was selected for amplification of the kdr gene fragment, followed by Sanger sequencing to identify and analyze resistance-associated mutations. Results The LC50 levels of deltamethrin among mosquitoes from the four populations in Luhe, Yancheng, the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and the Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area were 2.048 5, 7.798 2, 3.473 3, and 17.695 5 mg/mL, respectively, with corresponding concentrations of deltamethrin ranging from 0.005 to 5.000,0.050 to 50.000,0.050 to 25.000 and 0.050 to 50.000 mg/mL, respectively. Furthermore, the ranges of the KT50 values were 11.76-107.43, 67.05-216.30,29.77-107.43 and 28.40-329.51 min; the 1-h knockdown rates were 34.58%-99.15%, 9.52%-43.80%, 55.09%-73.01%, and 10.09%-68.07%; and the 24-h mortality rates were 12.15%-67.52%,9.52%-79.56%,13.17%-82.21%, and 11.01%-78.99%, respectively. With respect to kdr gene mutation, we assayed a total of 63,70,59, and 57 mosquitoes for the four populations, for which we detected L1014F mutation frequencies of 14.29%, 35.00%, 20.34%, and 31.58%, respectively, with a majority of these mutations being heterozygous for resistance. In addition, five adult mosquitoes were identified has having synonymous mutations at site 1011[i. e. , AAT(asparagine)mutation to AAC(asparagine)]. Conclusions Our findings revealed the clear resistance of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus to deltamethrin in the Yancheng region of the Yellow Sea wetland, and the resistance phenotype and kdr frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment were comparable to those of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment, thereby indicating that the resistance of different populations of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was homogeneous under the pressure of different insecticide selection within and around the wetland. However, the underlying mechanisms need to be further studied.

Foodborne illnesses caused by Salmonella pose significant threats to worldwide public health safety.In this study,a rapid method for screening viable Salmonella in oyster sauce and milk was developed by utilizing an electronic microbial growth analyzer(EMGA).Target food samples were diluted 10-fold with RVS broth and loaded into test tubes.Test tubes were positioned in the EMGA to determine the bacterial growth curves and the time required to reach the maximum growth rate(Tmgr).Using Salmonella typhimurium(S.typhimurium)asan model species,there was linear relationship between the logarithmic value of viable bacterial concentration(lgC)and Tmgr over the range of 5×101-5×106 CFU/mL,with a detection limit of 10 CFU/mL.For oyster sauce,the regression equation was Tmgr(min)=-80.775lg[C/(CFU/mL)]+754.96(R2=0.9907),and the recovery rates of S.typhimurium ranged from 95.2%to 119.8%,with relative standard deviations(RSD)ranging from 3.5%to 16.3%.For milk,the regression equation was Tmgr(min)=-71.922 lg[C/(CFU/mL)]+618.65(R2=0.9985),with recovery rates ranging from 98.4%to 110.6%and RSD ranging from 6.4%to 12.8%.The EMGA method required only one portable instrument,and involving only three manual steps,i.e.,dilution,transfer,and insertion.When S.typhimurium contamination reached 106 CFU/mL,the total time consumption,from the unwrapping of samples to the readout of bacterial concentration,was no more than 7 h.When applied to detection of actual oyster sauce and milk samples,the new method demonstrated strong consistency with plate counting results in positive detection rates.This method was superior to the plate counting method,which was generally considered as a gold standard,in terms of accuracy,precision,simplicity and efficiency,representing a promising alternative for the on-site screening and quantification of viable Salmonella in oyster sauce and milk products.

Objective To detect the expression changes of citrullinated histone H3(CitH3)during the development of deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in mice,and to explore its value in estimating the time to thrombosis.Methods The inferior vena cava(IVC)of mice was ligated to establish a thrombosis model induced by congestion.Mice were sacrificed under excessive anesthesia at 0 h,1 d,3 d,5 d,7 d,10 d,14 d and 21 d after the modeling,respectively.The congested IVC segments(0 h after modeling)and the thrombosed IVC segments(1-21 days after modeling)were extracted.Immunohistochemistry and double immunofluorescence staining were used to observe the number of neutrophils and the ex-pression of CitH3 during thrombosis.Western blotting was used to detect the protein expression level of CitH3.Results During thrombosis,CitH3 was mainly expressed in neutrophils within the thrombus.A small number of neutrophils and a few CitH3-positive cells were observed at 0 h after modeling in the congested IVC.Between 1 d and 21 d after modeling,the number of neutrophils reached a peak at 1 d and gradually decreased.The number of CitH3-positive cells and their ratio to neutrophils began to increase at 1 d,reached a peak at 5 d after modeling,and then decreased.The expression level of CitH3 protein began to increase at 1 d and reached a peak at 5 d after modeling.Conclusion The expres-sion of CitH3 during DVI shows temporal changes,and is expected to become a biological marker for estimating the formation time of thrombosis.

Objective:To analyze the biological parameters of the anterior segment of age-related cataracts patients with or without zonular weakness with the new generation of sweep-source anterior optical coherence tomography (OCT) device CASIA2 to provide a basis for the diagnosis of zonular weakness.Methods:A case-control study was conducted.A total of 158 cases (186 eyes) of patients with age-related cataracts having zonular weakness as a zonular weakness group, and 80 cases (80 eyes) of cataract with age-related cataracts without zonular weakness as a normal zonule group were enroll from June 2022 to June 2023 at Beijing Tongren Hospital.All patients underwent routine preoperative ophthalmological examination including slit lamp microsopy, IOLMaster 700, ocular B-ultrasound and OCT.The anterior chamber depth (ACD), anterior chamber volume (ACV), lens thickness (LT), lens vault (LV), anterior chamber angle opening distance at 750 μm (AOD750), lens decentration and tilt, radius of curvature of the anterior lens surface (RAL), and radius of curvature of the posterior lens surface (RPL) of patients were measured with CASIA2 and compared between the two groups.The relationship between zonular weakness and anterior chamber parameters and lens parameters was evaluated by logistic regression analysis.This study followed the Declaration of Helsinki.The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Beijing Tongren Hospital (No.TRECKY2018-049), and all enrolled patients signed the informed consent form.Results:In the zonular weakness group, ACD, ACV, RAL, and AOD750 were (2.34±0.56)mm, (85.05±40.19)mm 3, 7.52 (7.13, 8.08)mm, and 0.27 (0.07, 0.30)mm, respectively, which were smaller than (3.13±0.38)mm, (127.75±38.15)mm 3, 9.28(8.51, 9.76)mm, and 0.52 (0.31, 0.65)mm in the normal zonule group, with statistically significant differences (all P<0.05).LT and LV in the zonular weakness group were (5.14±0.45)mm and (1.22±0.53)mm, respectively, which were larger than (4.27±0.52)mm and (0.32±0.30)mm in the normal zonule group, and the differences were statistically significant (both P<0.05).Magnitude of lens decentration and tilt in the zonular weakness were 0.34 (0.13, 0.45)mm and 6.44 (3.67, 7.32)°, respectively, which were significantly larger than 0.19 (0.12, 0.25)mm and 4.88 (3.85, 5.65)° in the normal zonule group (both P<0.05).No obvious pattern was found in the direction of decentration and tilt.Logistic regression analysis showed that LV and lens decentration were risk factors of zonular weakness (odds ratios [ OR]=706.170, 335.339; both P<0.05), and RAL was a protective factor of zonular weakness ( OR=0.239, P<0.05). Conclusions:Age-related cataract patients with zonular weakness often present with a decrease in ACV due to increased anterior convexity of the lens.Decreased RAL, increased lens decentration and elevated LV are risk factors for zonular weakness.