1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Neuroprotective Effects of Transcranial Magneto-acoustic Stimulation on Parkinson’s Disease Model Mice by Regulating Mitophagy and Mitochondrial Homeostasis
Shuai ZHANG ; Yan-Bin WANG ; Yi-Hao XU ; Jin-Rui MI ; Xiao-Chao LU ; Yu-Chen AN ; Ji-Zhou LIU ; Jia-Qi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1457-1470
ObjectiveTranscranial magneto-acoustic stimulation (TMAS) is an emerging non-invasive neuromodulation technique that may provide a novel non-pharmacological intervention strategy for Parkinson's disease (PD). PD is characterized by the progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc), leading to motor impairments such as bradykinesia, tremor, and rigidity. Increasing evidence indicates that mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired mitochondrial quality control are central mechanisms underlying dopaminergic neuronal loss. In particular, abnormalities in mitophagy and mitochondrial fission-fusion balance contribute substantially to oxidative stress, energy metabolic failure, and neuronal injury. At present, most clinical treatments for PD mainly alleviate symptoms but do not effectively halt disease progression. Therefore, exploring new interventions targeting the core pathological mechanisms is of considerable significance. This study aims to investigate whether TMAS can improve neural damage and motor dysfunction in PD mice by regulating mitophagy and the fission/fusion dynamic balance, thereby providing theoretical and experimental support for its application in PD treatment. MethodsMale C57BL/6 mice were used in this study. A PD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) for 7 consecutive days. After model induction, mice in the intervention group received TMAS once daily for 14 consecutive days, whereas the corresponding control group received sham stimulation. The stimulation target was positioned over the primary motor cortex (M1). Motor performance was evaluated using the pole test and the open-field test. To verify the activation effect of TMAS on the target cortical region, c-Fos immunohistochemistry was performed in the M1. To assess nigral dopaminergic neuronal injury, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) immunohistochemistry was used to quantify TH-positive neurons in the SNc. Mitochondrial function was evaluated by measuring reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content in the SNc. Western blot was further performed to determine the expression of mitophagy-related proteins, including PINK1, Parkin, LC3-II, and p62, as well as mitochondrial dynamics-related proteins, including Drp1 and Opa1. ResultsTMAS significantly increased the number of c-Fos-positive cells in M1 (P<0.000 1), indicating effective activation of neurons in the targeted cortical region. Compared with the control group, MPTP-treated mice exhibited marked motor dysfunction, including a significant reduction in total distance traveled in the open-field test (P<0.000 1) and mean speed (P=0.000 1), as well as significant prolongation of turn time and total climbing time in the pole test (P<0.000 1). These behavioral impairments were accompanied by a substantial loss of TH-positive dopaminergic neurons in the SNc, whereas TMAS significantly increased TH-positive neuron survival (P<0.000 1). In parallel, MPTP induced a pronounced increase in ROS levels and a significant reduction in ATP content, indicating severe mitochondrial dysfunction and energy metabolism impairment (P<0.01). TMAS treatment significantly improved motor performance, as reflected by the reversal of MPTP-induced impairment in the open-field and pole tests, and significantly reduced ROS accumulation (P<0.01) while restoring ATP production (P<0.001). At the molecular level, MPTP markedly downregulated PINK1 and Parkin, decreased p62 expression, increased LC3-II accumulation, elevated Drp1 expression, and reduced Opa1 expression, whereas TMAS significantly reversed these abnormalities, suggesting restoration of mitophagy-related mitochondrial quality control and re-establishment of mitochondrial fission-fusion balance. Collectively, these findings indicate that TMAS ameliorates MPTP-induced neurotoxicity and restores mitochondrial homeostasis and energy metabolism. ConclusionTMAS effectively attenuates neural damage and improves motor dysfunction in MPTP-induced PD mice. Its neuroprotective effects are closely associated with multidimensional regulation of the mitochondrial quality control system, including restoration of PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy and rebalancing of Drp1/Opa1-related mitochondrial dynamics. Rather than acting only as a symptomatic neuromodulatory intervention, TMAS may influence a key pathological axis of PD by improving mitochondrial homeostasis in SNc and protecting nigral dopaminergic neurons. These findings provide experimental evidence supporting TMAS as a promising non-invasive physical intervention for PD.
3.Neuroprotective Effects of Transcranial Magneto-acoustic Stimulation on Parkinson’s Disease Model Mice by Regulating Mitophagy and Mitochondrial Homeostasis
Shuai ZHANG ; Yan-Bin WANG ; Yi-Hao XU ; Jin-Rui MI ; Xiao-Chao LU ; Yu-Chen AN ; Ji-Zhou LIU ; Jia-Qi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1457-1470
ObjectiveTranscranial magneto-acoustic stimulation (TMAS) is an emerging non-invasive neuromodulation technique that may provide a novel non-pharmacological intervention strategy for Parkinson's disease (PD). PD is characterized by the progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc), leading to motor impairments such as bradykinesia, tremor, and rigidity. Increasing evidence indicates that mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired mitochondrial quality control are central mechanisms underlying dopaminergic neuronal loss. In particular, abnormalities in mitophagy and mitochondrial fission-fusion balance contribute substantially to oxidative stress, energy metabolic failure, and neuronal injury. At present, most clinical treatments for PD mainly alleviate symptoms but do not effectively halt disease progression. Therefore, exploring new interventions targeting the core pathological mechanisms is of considerable significance. This study aims to investigate whether TMAS can improve neural damage and motor dysfunction in PD mice by regulating mitophagy and the fission/fusion dynamic balance, thereby providing theoretical and experimental support for its application in PD treatment. MethodsMale C57BL/6 mice were used in this study. A PD model was established by intraperitoneal injection of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) for 7 consecutive days. After model induction, mice in the intervention group received TMAS once daily for 14 consecutive days, whereas the corresponding control group received sham stimulation. The stimulation target was positioned over the primary motor cortex (M1). Motor performance was evaluated using the pole test and the open-field test. To verify the activation effect of TMAS on the target cortical region, c-Fos immunohistochemistry was performed in the M1. To assess nigral dopaminergic neuronal injury, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) immunohistochemistry was used to quantify TH-positive neurons in the SNc. Mitochondrial function was evaluated by measuring reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content in the SNc. Western blot was further performed to determine the expression of mitophagy-related proteins, including PINK1, Parkin, LC3-II, and p62, as well as mitochondrial dynamics-related proteins, including Drp1 and Opa1. ResultsTMAS significantly increased the number of c-Fos-positive cells in M1 (P<0.000 1), indicating effective activation of neurons in the targeted cortical region. Compared with the control group, MPTP-treated mice exhibited marked motor dysfunction, including a significant reduction in total distance traveled in the open-field test (P<0.000 1) and mean speed (P=0.000 1), as well as significant prolongation of turn time and total climbing time in the pole test (P<0.000 1). These behavioral impairments were accompanied by a substantial loss of TH-positive dopaminergic neurons in the SNc, whereas TMAS significantly increased TH-positive neuron survival (P<0.000 1). In parallel, MPTP induced a pronounced increase in ROS levels and a significant reduction in ATP content, indicating severe mitochondrial dysfunction and energy metabolism impairment (P<0.01). TMAS treatment significantly improved motor performance, as reflected by the reversal of MPTP-induced impairment in the open-field and pole tests, and significantly reduced ROS accumulation (P<0.01) while restoring ATP production (P<0.001). At the molecular level, MPTP markedly downregulated PINK1 and Parkin, decreased p62 expression, increased LC3-II accumulation, elevated Drp1 expression, and reduced Opa1 expression, whereas TMAS significantly reversed these abnormalities, suggesting restoration of mitophagy-related mitochondrial quality control and re-establishment of mitochondrial fission-fusion balance. Collectively, these findings indicate that TMAS ameliorates MPTP-induced neurotoxicity and restores mitochondrial homeostasis and energy metabolism. ConclusionTMAS effectively attenuates neural damage and improves motor dysfunction in MPTP-induced PD mice. Its neuroprotective effects are closely associated with multidimensional regulation of the mitochondrial quality control system, including restoration of PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy and rebalancing of Drp1/Opa1-related mitochondrial dynamics. Rather than acting only as a symptomatic neuromodulatory intervention, TMAS may influence a key pathological axis of PD by improving mitochondrial homeostasis in SNc and protecting nigral dopaminergic neurons. These findings provide experimental evidence supporting TMAS as a promising non-invasive physical intervention for PD.
4.Mechanistic Insights into The Role of LEPROTs and COPI Retrograde Transport in Regulating Golgi Morphology
Jing-Hu GAO ; Lin-Yue ZHAO ; Yu-Lu ZHANG ; Yan-Fang WU ; Bing YAN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(6):1746-1757
ObjectiveThe Golgi apparatus serves as a central hub in the eukaryotic secretory pathway, responsible for the processing, sorting, and trafficking of proteins and lipids. In mammalian cells, the Golgi typically forms a perinuclear ribbon-like structure composed of laterally connected cisternae stacks.The maintenance of Golgi ribbon structure depends on the balance of membrane flux across multiple intracellular trafficking pathways, yet the specific contributions of distinct trafficking branches to Golgi macroscopic morphology remain elusive. In mammalian cells, the Golgi ribbon is typically organized as a perinuclear, laterally connected structure composed of stacked cisternae, and its integrity is highly dynamic and sensitive to perturbations in membrane trafficking. This study aims to elucidate the role of coat protein complex I (COPI)-mediated retrograde transport in maintaining the Golgi ribbon and to dissect the functional relationship between the transmembrane cargo receptors LEPROT/LEPROTL1 (LEPROTs) and the COPI adaptor GOLPH3. MethodsUsing siRNA interference and gene-deficient cell lines, we selectively perturbed COPI- or adaptor protein complex 1 (AP-1)-mediated trafficking pathways in HeLa cells. To quantitatively evaluate Golgi morphology, we employed a “Golgi Angle”-based measurement to assess its circumferential distribution around the nucleus. The spatial distribution of the Golgi ribbon was quantitatively analyzed using confocal microscopy, while Golgi ultrastructure and vesicle density were examined via transmission electron microscopy. Additionally, the subcellular distribution of COPI components was assessed by immunofluorescence co-localization. ResultsSelective inhibition of COPI retrograde transport significantly induced the circumferential extension of the Golgi ribbon around the nucleus, whereas blocking AP-1-mediated anterograde transport resulted in Golgi compaction, indicating opposing roles. These results suggest that different trafficking branches downstream of ARF1 exert distinct and even antagonistic effects on Golgi morphology. LEPROTs-deficient cells exhibited a Golgi extension phenotype highly consistent with COPI impairment. Furthermore, knockdown of GOLPH3 in a LEPROTs double-knockout background produced a significant additive effect on Golgi extension, suggesting that LEPROTs and GOLPH3 play non-redundant roles in regulating COPI-related trafficking processes. Mechanistically, loss of either LEPROTs or GOLPH3 led to the aberrant accumulation of COPI components at endoplasmic reticulum exit sites, accompanied by a reduction in COPI-like vesicles around the Golgi. This redistribution indicates a defect in COPI recycling between the ER-Golgi interface and the Golgi apparatus. Ultrastructural analysis revealed that Golgi cisternae in defective cells became shorter and thicker while maintaining a stable number of stacks. In parallel, the density of Golgi-associated vesicles was markedly decreased, further supporting an impairment in COPI vesicle formation or budding processes. ConclusionThis study demonstrates that active COPI retrograde transport is a critical factor in restricting the over-connection of the Golgi ribbon and maintaining its compactness. Rather than causing fragmentation, partial disruption of COPI function leads to a distinct morphological outcome characterized by Golgi ribbon extension at the light microscopy level and cisternal remodeling at the ultrastructural level. LEPROTs and GOLPH3 cooperatively promote the recycling and vesiculation of COPI components, thereby imposing a structural constraint on the Golgi periphery. Our findings support a model in which multiple adaptor proteins act in parallel to sustain efficient COPI cycling, thereby maintaining Golgi structural homeostasis. These findings provide new cell biological evidence for the membrane trafficking basis of Golgi morphological homeostasis.
5.Research advances on RPL11 in the regulation of cellular stress induced by ionizing radiation
Hongyu BAO ; Yan LU ; Chenyu ZHAO ; Mingxuan BI ; Jinghong FU ; Yong ZHANG ; Lian YU ; Weiguo LI
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):286-291
Radiotherapy is a cornerstone in the treatment of malignant tumors. It induces DNA damage through high-energy radiation, preferentially eliminating rapidly proliferating tumor cells. However, its clinical efficacy is often limited by tumor radioresistance and collateral damage to normal tissues. Consequently, elucidating the cellular response mechanisms to radiation stress and identifying key targets that can both sensitize tumor cells and protect normal tissues have become critical strategies for improving radiotherapy outcomes. Radiation stress triggers structural remodeling of the nucleolus, leading to the dissociation of certain ribosomal proteins from the ribosome and enabling them to acquire extra-ribosomal functions. Among these, RPL11 can be released and specifically binds to MDM2, thus inhibiting its E3 ubiquitin ligase activity, stabilizing p53, and mediating cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. The RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway, acting as a signaling hub that links nucleolar dysfunction to cell fate determination, plays a pivotal role in maintaining genomic stability and regulating cellular responses to radiation. This review first introduces the basic characteristics of RPL11 and elucidates the molecular basis of radiation-induced ribosomal stress. It then outlines the core regulatory mechanisms of the cell cycle. On this basis, it focuses on the mechanisms by which radiation-induced RPL11 regulates the cell cycle and analyzes the specific effects of RPL11 on cell cycle. Furthermore, it discusses the role of the RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway in cell cycle regulation. Finally, it explores the role of this pathway in maintaining genomic stability and determining cell fate, and highlights its potential value as a target for radiosensitization, aiming to provide new perspectives for enhancing tumor radiosensitivity and reducing damage to normal tissues.
6.Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Diabetic Retinopathy: From Pathogenesis to Therapeutic Targets
Xiao-Yan ZHU ; Tao JIN ; Yu ZHANG ; Lu-Lu LIAN ; Wan-Li DU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(7):1849-1866
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the most prevalent and vision-threatening microvascular complications of diabetes mellitus, yet its pathogenesis extends far beyond vascular injury alone. As the retina is among the most energy-demanding tissues in the body, its neurons, glial cells, pigment epithelial cells, pericytes, and endothelial cells are highly dependent on mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation to maintain visual signal transduction, ionic homeostasis, and neurovascular integrity. This review summarizes current evidence indicating that mitochondrial dysfunction is not merely a downstream consequence of chronic hyperglycemia, but a central pathogenic hub that initiates, amplifies, and perpetuates retinal neurovascular degeneration in DR. Persistent hyperglycemia activates multiple abnormal metabolic pathways, including the polyol pathway, hexosamine pathway, protein kinase C signaling, advanced glycation end-product formation, and angiotensin II-related responses. Although these pathways differ mechanistically, they converge on excessive reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, antioxidant depletion, and mitochondrial injury. Under diabetic stress, electron transport chain overload promotes mitochondrial ROS leakage, damages mitochondrial DNA, disrupts membrane potential, and impairs the transcription of key respiratory chain components. In parallel, mitochondrial quality-control systems become progressively compromised. The balance between fusion and fission shifts toward pathological fragmentation through reduced MFN1/2 and OPA1 activity and enhanced DRP1-mediated fission. Mitochondrial biogenesis is suppressed through inhibition of the AMPK/SIRT1/PGC-1α/NRF1/TFAM axis, while mitophagy changes from an early compensatory response to a later state of autophagic flux blockade and accumulation of dysfunctional mitochondria. Importantly, damaged mitochondria serve as signal amplifiers linking metabolic stress to inflammation and programmed cell death. Mitochondrial ROS, oxidized mitochondrial DNA, calcium overload, cardiolipin exposure, and membrane permeabilization activate interrelated death pathways, including intrinsic apoptosis, ferroptosis, and pyroptosis. Cytochrome C and apoptosis-inducing factor promote caspase-dependent and caspase-independent apoptosis; iron dyshomeostasis, glutathione depletion, GPX4 dysfunction, and lipid peroxidation drive ferroptosis; and mitochondrial danger signals activate the NLRP3 inflammasome and gasdermin-dependent pyroptosis. These pathways jointly damage the retinal neurovascular unit and contribute to pericyte loss, endothelial barrier breakdown, Müller cell dysfunction, retinal ganglion cell apoptosis, retinal pigment epithelial injury, and photoreceptor degeneration. This review also emphasizes the role of epigenetic regulation in stabilizing mitochondrial pathology. DNA methylation, histone modifications, and non-coding RNAs interact to silence mitochondrial protective genes, alter antioxidant responses, and maintain the “metabolic memory” of DR even after glycemic normalization. Therefore, mitochondrial dysfunction should be understood as a dynamic, multidimensional network rather than a single pathological event. Current clinical approaches, such as laser photocoagulation, intravitreal anti-VEGF therapy, and vitrectomy, mainly target advanced vascular lesions and are limited by invasiveness, incomplete responsiveness, recurrence, and potential adverse effects. Therapeutically, strategies targeting mitochondrial ROS, restoring mitochondrial dynamics, enhancing biogenesis, regulating mitophagy, inhibiting inflammasome activation, correcting epigenetic abnormalities, and improving targeted delivery systems show promising potential. However, major translational barriers remain, including retinal cell heterogeneity, stage-specific mitochondrial responses, insufficient organelle-specific drug delivery, and long-term safety concerns. A deeper understanding of mitochondrial regulatory networks may support earlier, more precise, and multi-target interventions for preventing or slowing DR progression.
7.Research advances on RPL11 in the regulation of cellular stress induced by ionizing radiation
Hongyu BAO ; Yan LU ; Chenyu ZHAO ; Mingxuan BI ; Jinghong FU ; Yong ZHANG ; Lian YU ; Weiguo LI
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):286-291
Radiotherapy is a cornerstone in the treatment of malignant tumors. It induces DNA damage through high-energy radiation, preferentially eliminating rapidly proliferating tumor cells. However, its clinical efficacy is often limited by tumor radioresistance and collateral damage to normal tissues. Consequently, elucidating the cellular response mechanisms to radiation stress and identifying key targets that can both sensitize tumor cells and protect normal tissues have become critical strategies for improving radiotherapy outcomes. Radiation stress triggers structural remodeling of the nucleolus, leading to the dissociation of certain ribosomal proteins from the ribosome and enabling them to acquire extra-ribosomal functions. Among these, RPL11 can be released and specifically binds to MDM2, thus inhibiting its E3 ubiquitin ligase activity, stabilizing p53, and mediating cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. The RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway, acting as a signaling hub that links nucleolar dysfunction to cell fate determination, plays a pivotal role in maintaining genomic stability and regulating cellular responses to radiation. This review first introduces the basic characteristics of RPL11 and elucidates the molecular basis of radiation-induced ribosomal stress. It then outlines the core regulatory mechanisms of the cell cycle. On this basis, it focuses on the mechanisms by which radiation-induced RPL11 regulates the cell cycle and analyzes the specific effects of RPL11 on cell cycle. Furthermore, it discusses the role of the RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway in cell cycle regulation. Finally, it explores the role of this pathway in maintaining genomic stability and determining cell fate, and highlights its potential value as a target for radiosensitization, aiming to provide new perspectives for enhancing tumor radiosensitivity and reducing damage to normal tissues.
8.Research advances on RPL11 in the regulation of cellular stress induced by ionizing radiation
Hongyu BAO ; Yan LU ; Chenyu ZHAO ; Mingxuan BI ; Jinghong FU ; Yong ZHANG ; Lian YU ; Weiguo LI
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):286-291
Radiotherapy is a cornerstone in the treatment of malignant tumors. It induces DNA damage through high-energy radiation, preferentially eliminating rapidly proliferating tumor cells. However, its clinical efficacy is often limited by tumor radioresistance and collateral damage to normal tissues. Consequently, elucidating the cellular response mechanisms to radiation stress and identifying key targets that can both sensitize tumor cells and protect normal tissues have become critical strategies for improving radiotherapy outcomes. Radiation stress triggers structural remodeling of the nucleolus, leading to the dissociation of certain ribosomal proteins from the ribosome and enabling them to acquire extra-ribosomal functions. Among these, RPL11 can be released and specifically binds to MDM2, thus inhibiting its E3 ubiquitin ligase activity, stabilizing p53, and mediating cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. The RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway, acting as a signaling hub that links nucleolar dysfunction to cell fate determination, plays a pivotal role in maintaining genomic stability and regulating cellular responses to radiation. This review first introduces the basic characteristics of RPL11 and elucidates the molecular basis of radiation-induced ribosomal stress. It then outlines the core regulatory mechanisms of the cell cycle. On this basis, it focuses on the mechanisms by which radiation-induced RPL11 regulates the cell cycle and analyzes the specific effects of RPL11 on cell cycle. Furthermore, it discusses the role of the RPL11-MDM2-p53 pathway in cell cycle regulation. Finally, it explores the role of this pathway in maintaining genomic stability and determining cell fate, and highlights its potential value as a target for radiosensitization, aiming to provide new perspectives for enhancing tumor radiosensitivity and reducing damage to normal tissues.
9.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
Background:
and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking.
Methods:
This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance.
Results:
Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal.
Conclusions
The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy.
10.Current status of generalized pustular psoriasis: Findings from a multicenter hospital-based survey of 127 Chinese patients.
Haimeng WANG ; Jiaming XU ; Xiaoling YU ; Siyu HAO ; Xueqin CHEN ; Bin PENG ; Xiaona LI ; Ping WANG ; Chaoyang MIAO ; Jinzhu GUO ; Qingjie HU ; Zhonglan SU ; Sheng WANG ; Chen YU ; Qingmiao SUN ; Minkuo ZHANG ; Bin YANG ; Yuzhen LI ; Zhiqiang SONG ; Songmei GENG ; Aijun CHEN ; Zigang XU ; Chunlei ZHANG ; Qianjin LU ; Yan LU ; Xian JIANG ; Gang WANG ; Hong FANG ; Qing SUN ; Jie LIU ; Hongzhong JIN
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):953-961
BACKGROUND:
Generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP), a rare and recurrent autoinflammatory disease, imposes a substantial burden on patients and society. Awareness of GPP in China remains limited.
METHODS:
This cross-sectional survey, conducted between September 2021 and May 2023 across 14 hospitals in China, included GPP patients of all ages and disease phases. Data collected encompassed demographics, clinical characteristics, economic impact, disease severity, quality of life, and treatment-related complications. Risk factors for GPP recurrence were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among 127 patients (female/male ratio = 1.35:1), the mean age of disease onset was 25 years (1st quartile [Q1]-3rd quartile [Q3]: 11-44 years); 29.2% had experienced GPP for more than 10 years. Recurrence occurred in 75.6% of patients, and nearly half reported no identifiable triggers. Younger age at disease onset ( P = 0.021) and transitioning to plaque psoriasis ( P = 0.022) were associated with higher recurrence rates. The median diagnostic delay was 8 months (Q1-Q3: 2-41 months), and 32.3% of patients reported misdiagnoses. Comorbidities were present in 53.5% of patients, whereas 51.1% experienced systemic complications during treatment. Depression and anxiety affected 84.5% and 95.6% of patients, respectively. During GPP flares, the median Dermatology Life Quality Index score was 19.0 (Q1-Q3: 13.0-23.5). This score showed significant differences between patients with and without systemic symptoms; it demonstrated correlations with both depression and anxiety scores. Treatment costs caused financial hardship in 55.9% of patients, underscoring the burden associated with GPP.
CONCLUSIONS
The substantial disease and economic burdens among Chinese GPP patients warrant increased attention. Patients with early onset disease and those transitioning to plaque psoriasis require targeted interventions to mitigate the high recurrence risk.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
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Psoriasis/pathology*
;
Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Adolescent
;
Child
;
Young Adult
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Recurrence
;
Risk Factors
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
East Asian People


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