Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica（CMM）. Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design， process optimization， and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms， with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion， tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years， this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties， offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM， analyzes its advantages， disadvantages， and challenges in this domain， and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies， while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.

Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease. The heterotopic colonization of periodontal pathogens results in the development of several systemic diseases. Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis), a key pathogen for periodontitis, has been linked to the development of various cancers, such as oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), lung cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, and prostate cancer. P. gingivalis promote the progression of tumor through various mechanisms, P. gingivalis regulates proteins targeting cell cycle and apoptosis to promote proliferation of tumor cells directly, enhances tumor stemness by upregulating the expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) and cluster of differentiation 133 (CD133), activates inflammasome and p38/c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1(JNK) pathways, regulates tumor-associated neutrophil (TAN) polarization to remodel the tumor microenvironment, regulates epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) to promote tumor metastasis, remodel macrophage function to evade host immune response, and regulates multi-communicating with symbiotic bacteria. In addition, P. gingivalis accelerates the progression of esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and prostate cancer by promoting cell proliferation, inhibiting apoptosis, inducing chronic inflammation, and escaping immunity. However, the oral microbiome is a complex system, whether the interactions between oral bacteria affect tumor progression needs to be further investigated.

The standard of Pharmaceutical packaging materials is an important part of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. This article focuses on working background, general idea, working process, main framework, and its role and significance of the pharmaceutical packaging materials standards system in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition, which can contribute to accurately understand and utilize the standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition.

Objective:To analyze the current status of red blood cell transfusion in very preterm infants (VPI) (gestational age at birth <32 weeks) from Chinese Neonatal Network (CHNN) in 2022.Methods:This cross-sectional study was based on the CHNN VPI cohort. It included 6 985 VPI admitted to CHNN 89 participating centers within 24 hours after birth in 2022. VPI with major congenital anomalies or those transferred to non-CHNN centers for treatment or discharged against medical advice were excluded. VPI were categorized based on whether they received red blood cell transfusions, their gestational age at birth, the type of respiratory support received during transfusion, and whether the pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels exceeded the thresholds. General characteristics, red blood cell transfusion rates, number of transfusions, timing of the first transfusion, and pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels were compared among different groups. The incidence of adverse outcomes between the group of VPI who received transfusions above the threshold and those who received transfusions below the threshold were compared. Comparison among different groups was conducted using χ2 tests, Kruskal-Wallis H tests, Mann-Whitney U test, and so on. Trends by gestational age at birth were evaluated by Cochran-Armitage tests and Jonckheere-Terpstra tests for trend. Results:Among the 6 985 VPI, 3 865 cases(55.3%) were male, with a gestational age at birth of 30.0 (28.6, 31.0) weeks and a birth weight of (1 302±321) g. Overall, 3 617 cases (51.8%) received red blood cell transfusion, while 3 368 cases (48.2%) did not. The red blood cell transfusion rate was 51.8% (3 617/6 985), with rates of 77.7% (893/1 150) for those born before 28 weeks gestational age and 46.7% (2 724/5 835) for those born between 28 and 31 weeks gestational age. A total of 9 616 times red blood cell transfusions were administered to 3 617 VPI, with 632 times missing pre-transfusion hemoglobin data, and 8 984 times included in the analysis. Of the red blood cell transfusions, 25.6% (2 459/9 616) were administered when invasive respiratory support was required, 51.3% (4 934/9 616) were receiving non-invasive respiratory support, while 23.1% (2 223/9, 616) were given when no respiratory support was needed. Compared to the non-transfusion group, the red blood cell transfusion group had a higher rate of pregnancy-induced hypertension in mothers, lower rates of born via cesarean section and mother′s antenatal steroid administration, smaller gestational age, lower birth weight, a higher proportion of small-for-gestational-age, multiple births, and proportions of Apgar score at the 5 th minute after birth ≤3 (all P<0.05). They were also less likely to be female, born in hospital or undergo delayed cord clamping (all P<0.01). Additionally, higher transport risk index of physiologic stability score at admission were observed in the red blood cell transfusion group ( P<0.001). The number of red blood cell transfusion was 2 (1, 3) times, with the first transfusion occurring at an age of 18 (8, 29) days, and a pre-transfusion hemoglobin level of 97 (86, 109) g/L. For VPI ≤7 days of age, the pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels for invasive respiratory support, non-invasive respiratory support, or no respiratory support, respectively, with no statistically significant differences between groups ( H=5.59, P=0.061). For VPI aged 8 to 21 days and≥22 days, the levels with statistically differences between groups (both P<0.01). Red blood cell transfusions above recommended thresholds were observed in all respiratory support categories at different stages of life, with the highest prevalence in infants aged 8 to 21 days and≥22 days who did not require respiratory support, at 90.1% (264/273) and 91.1%(1 578/1 732), respectively. The rate of necrotizing enterocolitis was higher in the above-threshold group ( χ2=10.59, P=0.001), and the duration of hospital stay was longer in the above-threshold group ( Z=4.67, P<0.001) compared to the below-threshold group. Conclusions:In 2022, the red blood cell transfusion rate was relatively high among VPI from CHNN. Pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels frequently exceeded recommended transfusion thresholds.

Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics of children with head and neck rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) and to summarize the mid-long term efficacy of Beijing Children′s Hospital Rhabdomyosarcoma 2006 (BCH-RMS-2006) regimen and China Children′s Cancer Group Rhabdomyosarcoma 2016 (CCCG-RMS-2016) regimen.Methods:A retrospective cohort study. Clinical data of 137 children with newly diagnosed head and neck RMS at Beijing Children′s Hospital, Capital Medical University from March 2013 to December 2021 were collected. Clinical characteristic of patients at disease onset and the therapeutic effects of patients treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 and CCCG-RMS-2016 regimens were compared. The treatments and outcomes of patients with recurrence were also summarized. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-Rank test was used for comparison of survival rates between groups.Results:Among 137 patients, there were 80 males (58.4%) and 57 females (41.6%), the age of disease onset was 59 (34, 97) months. The primary site in the orbital, non-orbital non-parameningeal, and parameningeal area were 10 (7.3%), 47 (34.3%), and 80 (58.4%), respectively. Of all patients, 32 cases (23.4%) were treated with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen and 105 (76.6%) cases were treated with the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen. The follow-up time for the whole patients was 46 (20, 72) months, and the 5-year progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates for the whole children were (60.4±4.4)% and (69.3±4.0)%, respectively. The 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group than in BCH-RMS-2006 group ((73.0±4.5)% vs. (56.6±4.4)%, χ2=4.57, P=0.029). For the parameningeal group, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (61 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (19 cases) ((57.3±7.6)% vs. (32.7±11.8)%, χ2=4.64, P=0.031). For the group with meningeal invasion risk factors, the 5-year OS rate was higher in the CCCG-RMS-2016 group (54 cases) than in BCH-RMS-2006 group (15 cases) ((57.7±7.7)% vs. (30.0±12.3)%, χ2=4.76, P=0.029). Among the 10 cases of orbital RMS, there was no recurrence. In the non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS group (47 cases), there were 13 (27.6%) recurrences, after re-treatment, 7 cases survived. In the parameningeal RMS group (80 cases), there were 40 (50.0%) recurrences, with only 7 cases surviving after re-treatment. Conclusions:The overall prognosis for patients with orbital and non-orbital non-parameningeal RMS is good. However, children with parameningeal RMS have a high recurrence rate, and the effectiveness of re-treatment after recurrence is poor. Compared with the BCH-RMS-2006 regimen, the CCCG-RMS-2016 regimen can improve the treatment efficacy of RMS in the meningeal region.

BACKGROUND:Needle-knife release of the ligamentum flavum can effectively improve symptoms in patients with lumbar degeneration,and ultrasound guidance can increase the precision of needle-knife release;however,the specific effects of needle-knife release of the ligamentum flavum on the degenerated intervertebral discs and the possible mechanisms remain to be clarified. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effect of ultrasound-guided needle-knife release of the ligamentum flavum. METHODS:Twenty-four New Zealand rabbits were randomized into control(n=6)and model(n=18)groups.A rabbit model of lumbar disc degeneration model was established in the model group by cutting the supraspinous and interspinous ligaments of the L5/6 and L6/7 segments to maintain a standing posture and apply axial load to the lumbar spine.After successful modeling,the model rabbits were subdivided into a control group,a model group,an ultrasonic needle-knife group,and a sham needle-knife group according to a random number table method,with six animals in each group.The ultrasonic needle-knife group underwent ultrasound-guided needle-knife release of the right yellow ligament of L7/S1,once every week,for a total of four times.The needle-knife approach in the sham needle-knife group was the same as that in the ultrasound needle-knife group,but the ligamentum flavum was not released.At 30 days after the intervention,MRI was used to observe the changes in the signal intensity of the nucleus pulposus within the L7/S1 segment.Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe the morphological changes of the L7/S1 segment.Immunohistochemical staining was used to detect the expression of type I and II collagen in the nucleus pulposus of the L7/S1 segment.RT-PCR and western blot were used to detect the expression of integrin α5 and β1,p38,and nuclear factor κB in the L7/S1 segment. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:MRI findings indicated that the nucleus pulposus of the intervertebral disc of rabbits in the model group was gray-black in color,and the gray value of the nucleus pulposus was significantly lower than that of the control group(P<0.01).The brightness of the nucleus pulposus of the intervertebral disc of the rabbits in the ultrasonic needle-knife group was elevated compared with that of the model group,and the gray value of the nucleus pulposus was higher than that of the model group(P<0.01).Results from hematoxylin-eosin staining showed that in the model group,the shape of the nucleus pulposus was irregular,the number of nucleus pulposus cells was reduced,the extracellular matrix was compressed,the fibrous ring was ruptured,the structure and boundary of the end plate were unclear,and the chondrocytes were arranged disorderly.Compared with the model group,the ultrasonic needle-knife group showed an increase in the number of the nucleus pulposus,an improvement in the rupture of the fibrous ring,and more regular arrangement of cartilage endplate cells.Results from immunohistochemical staining showed an increase in positive expression of type I collagen(P<0.01)and a decrease in positive expression of type II collagen in the nucleus pulposus of the model group compared with the control group as well as a decrease in positive expression of type I collagen and an increase in positive expression of type II collagen in the nucleus pulposus of the ultrasonic needle-knife group compared with the model group(P<0.01).RT-PCR and western blot assays showed that the mRNA and protein expression of integrin α5,integrin β1,p38,and nuclear factor κB in the intervertebral discs of rabbits in the model group were increased compared with that in the control group(P<0.01);the mRNA and protein expression of integrin α5,integrin β1,p38,and nuclear factor κB in the intervertebral discs of rabbits in the ultrasonic needle-knife group was decreased compared with that in the model group(P<0.01).To conclude,ultrasound-guided needle-knife release of the ligamentum flavum can improve the degree of lumbar disc degeneration in rabbits,which may be related to the inhibition of p38 and nuclear factor-κB expression by modulating integrin α5 and β1 expression.

BACKGROUND:The decreased postural control ability due to mild cognitive impairment in elderly people leads to the increased risk of falls.Dual-task is the primary research paradigm for evaluating the relationship between cognition and postural control in the scenes close to real life.The sample entropy of the plantar center of pressure(COP)displacement during standing can represent the complexity of postural control. OBJECTIVE:Based on the COP displacement sample entropy,to analyze the differences in postural stability characteristics and control strategies between older adults with mild cognitive impairment and cognitively normal older adults during the dual-task with postural control and spatial working memory,aiming to explore the impact of cognitive impairment on the postural control ability during standing. METHODS:Sixteen older adults with mild cognitive impairment and 17 cognitively normal older adults were eligible and selected for the study.They completed five test tasks,including spatial working memory,double-feet balance stance,Romberg stance,double-feet balance stance-spatial working memory dual-task,and Romberg stance-spatial working memory dual-task,with three valid completions of each task.The plantar COP data were collected by the Kistler 3D force platform.The indicators included cognitive behavior(cognitive score and reaction time)and kinematic indexes(COP displacement and sample entropy). RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The older adults with mild cognitive impairment performed the spatial working memory task with the greatest cognitive score and the shortest reaction time,the double-feet balance stance-spatial working memory dual-task with moderate cognitive score and reaction time,and the Romberg stance-spatial working memory dual-task with the smallest cognitive score and the longest reaction time,where the differences were significant among the tasks(P<0.05).In the older adults with mild cognitive impairment,the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral COP displacements were significantly greater,and their sample entropy values were significantly smaller in the double-feet balance stance-spatial working memory dual-task and Romberg stance-spatial working memory dual-task than in the double-feet balance stance and Romberg stance tasks(P<0.05).In the spatial working memory task,there were no significant differences in cognitive score and reaction time between the both groups(P>0.05);however,in the double-feet balance stance-spatial working memory dual-task and Romberg stance-spatial working memory dual-task,cognitive scores were significantly smaller and reaction times were longer in the older adults with mild cognitive impairment compared with the cognitively normal older adults(P<0.05).In the double-feet balance stance-spatial working memory dual-task and Romberg stance-spatial working memory dual-task,the older adults with mild cognitive impairment exhibited significantly greater anterior-posterior and medial-lateral COP displacements and significantly smaller sample entropy values compared with the cognitively normal older adults(P<0.05).All findings indicate that compared with cognitively normal older adults,older adults with mild cognitive impairment exhibit smaller complexity,poorer systematic adaption and decreased automatic regulation of the postural control during performing the dual-tasks,who are more susceptible to spatial working memory interference,leading to the increased risk of falls.

BACKGROUND:Neurotrophins represent a novel therapeutic approach for spinal cord injury,showing promising clinical applicability.Autophagy modulation is one of the mechanisms by which neurotrophins exert their effects,yet the specific signaling pathways involved remain unclear. OBJECTIVE:To explore how neurotrophin-3(NT-3)modulates autophagy in oligodendrocytes via switching between P75NTR and TrkC receptors and promotes neurological function recovery after spinal cord injury,aiming to further clarify the specific molecular mechanisms involved. METHODS:Twenty-four Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into three groups:sham operation,spinal cord injury,and NT-3 groups.The therapeutic effect of NT-3 on spinal cord injury in rats was evaluated using the Basso,Beattie,and Bresnahan locomotor rating scale.The expression levels of NT-3,Olig1,myelin basic protein,and the autophagy marker LC3B in rat spinal cord tissue were detected by western blot.In a cellular experiment,oligodendrocytes were cultured in vitro and divided into six groups:oxygen-glucose deprivation(OGD),OGD+NT-3,OGD+NT-3+P75NTR plasmid,OGD+NT-3+TrkC plasmid,OGD+3-methyladenine(an autophagy inhibitor),and OGD+rapamycin(an autophagy activator).Oligodendrocyte morphology was observed under a light microscope,cell apoptosis was assessed by TUNEL staining,and the expression of TrkC receptor,P75NTR,LC3B,and the phosphorylation status of the PI3K/AKT/mTOR and AMPK/mTOR signaling pathways were evaluated by western blot. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Animal experiments demonstrated that compared with the sham operation group,NT-3 expression significantly increased after spinal cord injury(P<0.05);exogenous NT-3 treatment accelerated neurological function recovery in rats post spinal cord injury(P<0.05)and increased the expression of Olig1 and myelin basic proteins(P<0.05).Cellular experiments revealed that 3 hours marked the early to middle/late phase transition.Compared with the OGD group,oligodendrocytes in the OGD+NT-3 group could maintain their morphology for a longer period of time,TrkC receptor expression was lower in the early phase and significantly upregulated in the middle/late phase(P<0.05),whereas P75NTR protein expression was upregulated in the early phase and downregulated in the middle/late phase(P<0.05),and autophagy levels showed an initial increase followed by a decrease(P<0.05).By comparing the morphology and TUNEL staining results of cells in the OGD+NT-3,OGD+rapamycin,and OGD+3-methyladenine groups,we found that either promoting or inhibiting autophagy alone had adverse effects on oligodendrocyte survival,whereas modulating autophagy in a manner similar to NT-3 could maximally maintain cell survival.NT-3 could promote autophagy in the early phase via the P75NTR/AMPK/mTOR signaling pathway and inhibit autophagy in the later phase through the TrkC/PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway.Based on these findings,it is concluded that NT-3 can bidirectionally regulate autophagy in oligodendrocytes through the switching of P75NTR/TrkC receptors,thereby maintaining cell survival and facilitating the recovery of neurological functions in rats after spinal cord injury.

This article presents a case study of a patient who visited the Geriatric Department of Peking Union Medical College Hospital due to "palpitations, shortness of breath for more than 2 years, limb weakness for 6 months, edema, and nocturnal dyspnea for 2 months". The patient exhibited decreased muscle strength in the limbs and involvement of swallowing and respiratory muscles, alongside complications of heart failure and various arrhythmias which were predominantly atrial. Laboratory tests revealed the presence of multiple autoantibodies and notably anti-mitochondrial antibodies. Following a comprehensive multidisciplinary evaluation, the patient was diagnosed with anti-mitochondrial antibody-associated inflammatory myopathy. Treatment involved a combination of glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants, along with resistance exercises for muscle strength and rehabilitation training for lung function, resulting in significant improvement of clinical symptoms. The case underscores the importance of collaborative multidisciplinary approaches in diagnosing and treating rare diseases in elderly patients, where careful consideration of clinical manifestations and subtle abnormal clinical data can lead to effective interventions.