1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Expert Consensus on Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid
Changkuan FU ; Xiaochang MA ; Mingjun ZHU ; Yue DENG ; Hongxu LIU ; Mingxue ZHANG ; Ying CHEN ; Yan ZHOU ; Ling ZHANG ; Jianhua FU ; Wei YANG ; Yu'er HU ; Ming CHEN ; Yanming XIE ; Yuanyuan LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):147-158
The prescription of Qidong Yixin oral liquid is derived from the experience of national medical master Ren Jixue in treating viral myocarditis (VMC). It has the functions of tonifying Qi, nourishing the heart,calming the mind, and relieving palpitations. It is used to treat VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease caused by deficiency of both Qi and Yin. However,the understanding of its efficacy evidence, advantageous aspects, dosage and administration, and medication safety remains insufficient in clinical practice. Therefore,the development of the Expert Consensus on the Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid (hereinafter referred to as consensus) was initiated. Consensus strictly followed the process and methods of the expert consensus on the clinical application of Chinese patent medicines of the China Association of Chinese Medicine,successively completing multiple tasks such as the consensus project initiation,determination of clinical problems,evidence search and evaluation,formation of recommendation opinions and consensus suggestions,solicitation of opinions,peer review, submission for review and release, and so on. Consensus formed a total of 10 recommendation opinions and 12 consensus suggestions,clarifying the clinical positioning,efficacy advantages,syndrome differentiation,dosage and administration,combination therapy,timing of medication,adverse reactions,contraindications, and precautions of Qidong Yixin oral liquid,indicating that it has good clinical advantages and safety in the treatment of VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease,providing norms and references for physicians to safely and rationally apply Qidong Yixin oral liquid. Consensus was reviewed and approved for release by the Standardization Office of the China Association of Chinese Medicine on December 23, 2024. Standard number:GSCACM-376-2024.
3.Pharmacodynamic Substances and Mechanisms of Xinglou Chengqi Tang in Treating Post-stroke Complications: A Review
Yujin ZHANG ; Xiangzhuo LIU ; Zhouyang CHEN ; Zihao SONG ; Xinyi LIU ; Yizhi YAN ; Chaoya LI ; Yingyan FANG ; Shasha YANG ; Xueqin CHENG ; Zhou XIE ; Sijie TAN ; Peng ZENG ; Yue ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):327-337
Stroke is the leading cause of death and disability among adults in China, and its common complications include digestive system abnormalities, cognitive impairment, depression, stroke-associated pneumonia, and hemiplegia. The combination of traditional Chinese and Western medicine has great potential in treating post-stroke complications. Xinglou Chengqitang (XLCQT) is a representative prescription of alleviating the disease in the upper part by treating the lower part. It has definite therapeutic effect and high safety. Clinically, XLCQT is often used to treat stroke and its complications. However, the quantity and quality of clinical trials of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications need to be improved. Additionally, since the basic research is weak, the material basis and multi-target mechanism for the efficacy of this prescription are unknown. This article reviews XLCQT in terms of the pharmacodynamic basis, medicinal properties, safety evaluation, and progress in clinical research and mechanisms in treating post-stroke complications. This article summarizes 22 key active ingredients of XLCQT in treating acute stroke complicated with syndrome of phlegm heat and fu-organ excess. Among these key active ingredients, resveratrol, kaempferol, luteolin, chrysoeriol, apigenin, (+)-catechin, and adenosine have good pharmacokinetic properties and high bioavailability. The mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications are complex, including inflammatory response, brain-gut axis, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, intestinal flora, neurotrophic factors, autophagy, oxidative stress, and free radical damage. This review helps to deeply understand the pharmacodynamic basis and mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications and provides a theoretical basis for the clinical application of XLCQT against post-stroke complications and the development of drugs.
4.Correlation of Symptom Burden and Nutritional Status of Patients with Cancer in Chemotherapy Stage Under Guidance of TCM Constitution
Bailu SUI ; Yuhang FANG ; Yi XIE ; Yan WANG ; Ying ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(2):127-132
Objective To investigate the relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status under Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) constitution classification in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Methods Data on the physical constitution, symptom burden, and nutritional status of 640 patients with malignant tumors within the 21st–28th days of chemotherapy treatment were collected and analyzed. Results Symptom burden was found to have a positive correlation with nutritional risk and TCM bias (except for idiosyncrasies), suggesting that constitution bias may be an important internal factor for the aggravation of clinical symptoms and malnutrition in patients with cancer. Conclusion The relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status in chemotherapy under the guidance of TCM constitution can be studied to predict the nutritional status and symptom burden of patients after chemotherapy to guide the symptom and nutritional management of patients with cancer in the chemotherapy stage.
5.Research progress of red light therapy for dry eye and visual fatigue
Yutong XIE ; Siyu JIA ; Jiamin GAO ; Ruofan LIU ; Meiling LI ; Jiangying LI ; Xi LUO ; Xiaonan LI ; Rong YAN ; Hongbo LI
International Eye Science 2026;26(4):636-640
Dry eye disease(DED)is a common ocular surface disorder worldwide, primarily characterized by a loss of homeostasis of the tear film, and frequently associated with meibomian gland dysfunction(MGD), decreased tear film stability, ocular discomfort, and visual impairment. In recent years, factors such as the widespread use of digital devices,the aging population, and environmental changes have contributed to a significant increase in its global prevalence, making it a major public health concern. Red light therapy(RLT), also known as low-level laser therapy(LLLT)or photobiomodulation(PBM), is a non-invasive treatment that utilizes low-energy red or near-infrared light to irradiate tissues. It exerts photobiomodulatory effects to promote cellular repair and functional recovery. This therapy has demonstrated considerable potential in treating various ocular conditions. Its broader clinical application could improve therapeutic outcomes, alleviate patient discomfort and financial burden, and reduce the consumption of healthcare resources, thereby yielding significant socio-economic benefits. This paper systematically reviews the multifaceted mechanisms and application prospects of RLT in managing DED, including its anti-inflammatory effects, improvement of meibomian gland function, promotion of conjunctival goblet cell repair, and alleviation of visual fatigue, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation and practical reference for its clinical adoption.
6.The effect of body mass index and inferior pulmonary ligament division on the residual lung expansion after right upper lobectomy: A retrospective cohort study in a single center
Guang MU ; Wenhao ZHANG ; Hongchang WANG ; Yan GU ; Chenghao FU ; Wentao XUE ; Shiyuan XIE ; Tong WANG ; Ke WEI ; Yang XIA ; Liang CHEN ; Jun WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(02):261-266
Objective To analyze the effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on right residual lung expansion after right upper lobe resection under different body mass index (BMI) levels. Methods The clinical data of patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection in the First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University from 2021 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a group A (17 kg/m2<BMI≤23 kg/m2), a group B (23 kg/m2<BMI≤29 kg/m2) and a group C (BMI>29 kg/m2) according to BMI. The presence of residual cavity was judged by chest X-ray at 7-10 days after operation, the degree of compensation change of the right main bronchus angle was measured, and the changes in lung volume were determined by CT three-dimensional reconstruction. Results A total of 157 patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection were included, including 71 males and 86 females, with an average age of (59.7±11.2) years. There were 50 patients in the group A, 75 patients in the group B, and 32 patients in the group C. In the group A, compared with those without releasing the lower pulmonary ligament, patients with releasing had a lower incidence of postoperative residual cavity (P=0.016), greater changes in bronchus angle (P<0.001), and smaller changes in lung volume (P<0.001). In the group B and C, there was no significant effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on postoperative residual cavity, bronchus angle, and lung volume changes (P>0.05). Conclusion For patients with thin and long body shape and low BMI, releasing the lower pulmonary ligament is helpful to promote the expansion of the residual lung after right upper lobe resection and reduce the occurrence of postoperative residual cavity in patients.
7.Traditional Chinese Medicine Treats Sepsis by Regulating PI3K/Akt Pathway: A Review
Zhu LIU ; Jiawei WANG ; Jing YAN ; Jinchan PENG ; Mingyao XU ; Liqun LI ; Sheng XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(2):314-322
Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response syndrome caused by the invasion of pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria. In addition to the manifestations of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and primary infection lesions, critical cases often have manifestations of organ hypoperfusion. The morbidity and mortality of sepsis have remained high in recent years, which seriously affect the quality of life of the patients. The pathogenesis of sepsis is complicated, in which uncontrollable inflammation is a key mechanism. The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B (PI3K/Akt) signaling pathway plays a key role in mediating inflammation in sepsis. The available therapies of sepsis mainly include resuscitation, anti-infection, vasoactive drugs, intensive insulin therapy, and organ support, which show limited effects of reducing the mortality. Therefore, finding new therapeutic drugs is a key problem to be solved in the clinical treatment of sepsis. In recent years, studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can regulate the PI3K/Akt pathway via multiple pathways, multiple effects, and multiple targets to inhibit inflammation and curb the occurrence and development of sepsis, which has gradually become a hot spot in the prevention and treatment of sepsis. Moreover, studies have suggested that TCM has unique advantages in the treatment of sepsis. TCM can regulate the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway to inhibit inflammation, reduce oxidative stress, and control apoptosis in the prevention and treatment of sepsis. Despite the research progress, a systematic review remains to be performed regarding the TCM treatment of sepsis by regulating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway. After reviewing relevant papers published in recent years, this study systematically summarizes the relationship between PI3K/Akt pathway and sepsis and the role of TCM in the treatment of sepsis, aiming to provide new ideas for the potential treatment of sepsis and the development of new drugs.
8.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
9.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
10.Long-Term Real-World Outcomes of Tenofovir Alafenamide in Chronic Hepatitis B: Detailed Analysis of Treatment-Naive and Experienced Patients
Yu-Xuan SONG ; Guang-Jun SONG ; Hui MA ; Bo FENG ; Yan-Di XIE
The Korean Journal of Gastroenterology 2025;85(1):64-72
Background/Aims:
This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings.
Methods:
Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study.
Results:
One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups.
Conclusions
Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.


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