Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of galangin on rheumatoid arthritis （RA） in rats by regulating the Janus kinase 3 （JAK3）/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 （STAT3） pathway. METHODS Fifty male SD rats were taken， and an emulsion composed of bovine type Ⅱ collagen and Freund’s complete adjuvant was injected subcutaneously to establish an induced arthritis model. The rats that were successfully modeled were randomly divided into model group， low， medium and high dose groups of galangin （1， 5， 15 mg/kg）， and methotrexate group （positive control， 2 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group. Another 10 normal rats were taken as the normal group. Starting from the 15th day of modeling， each group of rats was gavaged with the corresponding drug solution or normal saline containing 0.5% Tween 80 once a day for 28 consecutive days. The arthritis index （AI） scores and paw volume of rats were compared before and after gavage administration. Twenty-four hours after the last administration， the serum levels of interleukin-6 （IL-6）， tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， IL-4 and IL-10 were determined， the pathological changes in ankle joint synovial tissue were observed， and the protein expressions of UNC-51 like kinase 1 （ULK1）， Beclin-1， microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 （LC3）， B cell lymphoma 2 （Bcl-2）， Bcl-2-associated X protein （Bax）， caspase-3， JAK3， phosphorylated JAK3 （p-JAK3）， STAT3 and phosphorylated STAT3 （p-STAT3） in the synovial tissue of the ankle joint were detected， as well as the fluorescence intensity of LC3-positive areas. RESULTS Compared with the model group， the pathological changes such as cellular proliferation of ankle joint synovial tissue and infiltration of inflammatory cells in rats of each administration group showed improvement. Moreover， their AI scores and paw pad volumes （on day 28 after gavage）， the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α， the protein expression of Bcl-2， and the phosphorylation levels of JAK3 and STAT3 were all significantly reduced （ P ＜0.05）. The levels of IL-4 and IL-10， the protein expressions of ULK1， Beclin-1， Bax， caspase-3 and LC3， as well as the fluorescence intensity of LC3-positive areas， were all significantly increased （ P ＜0.05）. Moreover， the effect of galangin was in a dose-dependent manner （ P ＜0.05）. CONCLUSIONS Galangin can induce sustained autophagy in synovial tissue cells of RA rats， promote cell apoptosis， inhibit synovial cell proliferation， and alleviate persistent inflammatory responses. The above anti-RA effects may be related to the inhibition of the JAK3/STAT3 pathway.

ObjectiveTo explore the complex network relationships among pain, kinesiophobia, social participation and knee function in patients after total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and to analyze the moderating effects of different socio-structural factors on the rehabilitation network from an ethical equity perspective. MethodsA convenience sampling method was used to select 291 patients who underwent TKA in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from May to July, 2023. Pain was assessed using Numerical Rating Scale, kinesiophobia with Chinese short version of the Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia, social participation with Impact on Participation and Autonomy Questionnaire, and knee function with Hospital for Special Surgery Knee Score. A partial correlation network among pain, kinesiophobia, social participation and knee function was constructed using Graphical Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. Key variables were identified through node centrality and bridge centrality analysis. Network Comparison Tests (NCT) were used to analyze network differences among subgroups based on different socio-structural characteristics. ResultsIn the network model, the nodes with the highest strength centrality were indoor participation, activity behavior and activity pain. Bridge centrality analysis indicated that activity pain, knee function, indoor participation and activity cognition were key bridge nodes. NCT revealed no significant differences in overall network structure or global strength among subgroups based on residence, education level or payment method (P > 0.05). However, significant differences in edge weights were found for specific edges such as activity cognition-activity behavior and knee function-indoor participation (P < 0.05). ConclusionThere is a network of interactions among pain, kinesiophobia, social participation and knee function in patients after TKA, with nodes such as indoor participation and activity pain playing key roles in the rehabilitation process. Although the overall rehabilitation network is similar across different socio-structural groups, variations exist in specific relational pathways among patients from rural areas, those with lower education levels, and those with out-of-pocket payment. This suggests that clinical rehabilitation interventions should focus on these core nodes and implement targeted support strategies for socio-structurally disadvantaged groups to promote rehabilitation equity.

To investigate the clinical characteristics and prognosis of extracranial malignant rhabdoid tumor (eMRT) in children, and to provide a reference for the clinical treatment of this disease.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of Qizhujianwei granules （QZJW） on abnormal proliferation and malignant transformation of gastric mucosal cells in rats with gastric intraepithelial neoplasia （GIN） and to explore the related mechanisms. MethodsA total of 80 SPF male Wistar rats were used. A GIN rat model was established using a four-factor comprehensive method consisting of methylnitronitrosoguanidine （MNNG）， ranitidine， irregular feeding patterns， and sodium salicylate. Except for the normal group， after successful modeling， the rats were randomly divided according to body weight into a model group， a Moluodan group （0.55 g·kg^-1）， and a QZJW group （7.34 g·kg^-1）， with 12 rats in each group. All groups were treated for 8 weeks. The general characteristics of the rats and morphological changes of the gastric mucosa were observed. Histopathological changes of the gastric mucosa were examined by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was used to detect serum levels of pepsinogenⅠ （PGⅠ）， pepsinogenⅡ （PGⅡ）， and gastrin （G-17）， as well as the expression level of transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） in gastric mucosal tissue， and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio was calculated. Immunohistochemistry （IHC） was used to detect the localization and expression levels of proliferating cell nuclear antigen （Ki-67） and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue. Western blot analysis was used to determine the protein expression levels of Wnt family member 3A （Wnt3a）， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， proto-oncogene Cmyc， transforming growth factor-β receptor Ⅰ （TGFβRⅠ）， intracellular signaling transducers Smad2/3， phosphorylated （p）-Smad2/3， twist family transcription factor （Twist1）， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group， the model group showed characteristic changes including dim eyes， pale ears and claws， dark-red tongue， and reduced luster of the tail. The gastric mucosa appeared pale， with surface congestion and erosion. The gastric mucosal glands were disordered， the nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio increased， and local tumor cells were observed. Serum PGⅠ and PGⅡ levels and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， while the level of G-17 was significantly increased （P<0.01）. The protein expression levels of Ki-67， Wnt3a， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， Cmyc， TGF-β₁， TGFβRⅠ， Smad2/3， Twist1， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， whereas the ratio of p-Smad2/3 to Smad2/3 was significantly decreased （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the general characteristics and gastric mucosal conditions of rats in the Moluodan group and the QZJW group were improved. HE staining showed that QZJW could effectively block the malignant progression of GIN. Serum PGⅠ and PGⅡ levels and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， while the level of G-17 was significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expression levels of Ki-67， Wnt3a， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， Cmyc， TGF-β₁， TGFβRⅠ， Smad2/3， Twist1， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue were significantly decreased （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionQZJW have a therapeutic effect on rats with GIN. The mechanism may involve inhibition of the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway to regulate the cell cycle and suppress abnormal cell proliferation. Meanwhile， it may inhibit epithelial-mesenchymal transition by suppressing the TGF-β₁/Smad/Twist1 signaling pathway， thereby blocking the malignant progression of GIN.

Diabetic retinopathy(DR)remains the leading cause of vision loss in patients with diabetes. Current anti-vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)therapies are limited by inadequate response in some patients and the necessity for repeated intravitreal injections, underscoring the urgent need for novel therapeutic targets. Angiopoietin-like protein 4(ANGPTL4), a multifunctional secreted protein, has emerged as a critical regulator in the pathogenesis and progression of DR, positioning it as a promising interventional target. This review systematically elaborates the biological characteristics of ANGPTL4, with a focus on its expression dynamics, molecular mechanisms, and regulatory networks rolesin the development of DR. Furthermore, the prospects of ANGPTL4-targeted therapeutic strategies are discussed, aiming to offer new insights and directions for understanding DR pathogenesis, advancing multi-target drug development, and improving clinical management.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of Qizhujianwei granules （QZJW） on abnormal proliferation and malignant transformation of gastric mucosal cells in rats with gastric intraepithelial neoplasia （GIN） and to explore the related mechanisms. MethodsA total of 80 SPF male Wistar rats were used. A GIN rat model was established using a four-factor comprehensive method consisting of methylnitronitrosoguanidine （MNNG）， ranitidine， irregular feeding patterns， and sodium salicylate. Except for the normal group， after successful modeling， the rats were randomly divided according to body weight into a model group， a Moluodan group （0.55 g·kg^-1）， and a QZJW group （7.34 g·kg^-1）， with 12 rats in each group. All groups were treated for 8 weeks. The general characteristics of the rats and morphological changes of the gastric mucosa were observed. Histopathological changes of the gastric mucosa were examined by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was used to detect serum levels of pepsinogenⅠ （PGⅠ）， pepsinogenⅡ （PGⅡ）， and gastrin （G-17）， as well as the expression level of transforming growth factor-β₁ （TGF-β₁） in gastric mucosal tissue， and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio was calculated. Immunohistochemistry （IHC） was used to detect the localization and expression levels of proliferating cell nuclear antigen （Ki-67） and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue. Western blot analysis was used to determine the protein expression levels of Wnt family member 3A （Wnt3a）， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， proto-oncogene Cmyc， transforming growth factor-β receptor Ⅰ （TGFβRⅠ）， intracellular signaling transducers Smad2/3， phosphorylated （p）-Smad2/3， twist family transcription factor （Twist1）， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group， the model group showed characteristic changes including dim eyes， pale ears and claws， dark-red tongue， and reduced luster of the tail. The gastric mucosa appeared pale， with surface congestion and erosion. The gastric mucosal glands were disordered， the nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio increased， and local tumor cells were observed. Serum PGⅠ and PGⅡ levels and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， while the level of G-17 was significantly increased （P<0.01）. The protein expression levels of Ki-67， Wnt3a， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， Cmyc， TGF-β₁， TGFβRⅠ， Smad2/3， Twist1， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， whereas the ratio of p-Smad2/3 to Smad2/3 was significantly decreased （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the general characteristics and gastric mucosal conditions of rats in the Moluodan group and the QZJW group were improved. HE staining showed that QZJW could effectively block the malignant progression of GIN. Serum PGⅠ and PGⅡ levels and the PGⅠ/PGⅡ ratio were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）， while the level of G-17 was significantly decreased （P<0.01）. The protein expression levels of Ki-67， Wnt3a， β-catenin， CyclinD₁， Cmyc， TGF-β₁， TGFβRⅠ， Smad2/3， Twist1， and Vimentin in gastric mucosal tissue were significantly decreased （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionQZJW have a therapeutic effect on rats with GIN. The mechanism may involve inhibition of the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway to regulate the cell cycle and suppress abnormal cell proliferation. Meanwhile， it may inhibit epithelial-mesenchymal transition by suppressing the TGF-β₁/Smad/Twist1 signaling pathway， thereby blocking the malignant progression of GIN.

Objective: To develop a prediction model for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) risk among the elderly, so as to provide a tool for MCI early screening. Methods : From July 2022 to September 2024, a multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling method was used to recruit permanent residents aged ≥65 years from the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as study participants. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, nutritional status, body composition indices, bone mineral density, and handgrip strength were collected through questionnaires and physical examinations. Sarcopenia was defined based on appendicular skeletal muscle index and handgrip strength. MCI was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination, with adjustments for educational level. Participants were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7∶3 ratio. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to screen for predictors and construct an MCI risk prediction model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: A total of 1 641 participants were surveyed, including 755 males (46.01%) and 886 females (53.99%). The majority of participants were aged 65-<75 years, comprising 1 154 individuals (70.32%). MCI was detected in 517 participants, corresponding to a detection rate of 31.51%. Resultsfrom LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that residence (rural, OR = 2.323, 95% CI: 1.682-3.210), age (75-<85 years, OR = 1.405, 95% CI: 1.019-1.937; ≥85 years, OR = 3.655, 95% CI: 1.696-7.875), educational level (primary school, OR = 0.341, 95% CI: 0.247-0.472; junior high school, OR = 0.255, 95% CI: 0.160-0.408; high school, OR = 0.286, 95% CI: 0.154-0.531; bachelor's degree or above, OR = 0.120, 95% CI: 0.041-0.351), history of alcohol consumption (yes, OR = 3.216, 95% CI: 2.164-4.779), risk of malnutrition (yes, OR = 1.464, 95% CI: 1.064-2.014), sarcopenia (yes, OR = 3.197, 95% CI: 2.332-4.385), and waist-to-hip ratio (abnormal, OR = 1.540, 95% CI: 1.159-2.048) were identified as predictive factors for MCI among the elderly. In the training set, the area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.788, 0.719, and 0.712, respectively. In the validation set, the corresponding values were 0.784, 0.913, and 0.542, respectively. DCA demonstrated that the model provided a higher clinical net benefit for predicting MCI risk when the risk threshold probability ranged from 0.124 to 0.764. Conclusion The prediction model developed in this study demonstrates good discriminative ability and clinical utility, indicating its substantial value for predicting the MCI risk among the elderly.

OBJECTIVE To form an expert consensus addressing clinical issues regarding the use of parenteral direct thrombin inhibitors （DTIs） in special populations. METHODS Led by the Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital（the Affiliated Hospital of UESTC）， a multidisciplinary working group was formed comprising experts from multiple fields， including clinical pharmacy， cardiac surgery， obstetrics， pediatrics and evidence-based medicine. Through literature review and the Delphi method， clinical questions regarding the efficacy and safety of parenteral DTIs used in special populations were identified. A structured design was adopted using the “Population-Intervention-Comparison-Outcome” （PICO） framework；systematic searches were conducted in CJFD， PubMed， Embase and other databases. Relevant evidence from randomized controlled trials，cohort studies and systematic reviews were included and synthesized. Evidence quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment，Development and Evaluation （GRADE） approach， and recommendations were formulated through three rounds of Delphi surveys and expert consensus meetings. RESULTS &CONCLUSIONS Seven clinical questions were ultimately selected （with a consensus rate exceeding 90%）， resulting in the formulation of seven recommendations on the use of parenteral DTIs in special populations， including children， pregnant women， patients with hepatic or renal impairment， patients with mesenteric venous thrombosis， and individuals with thrombophilia. These recommendations clarify the preferred agents， dosing ranges， monitoring parameters， and safety management strategies for parenteral DTIs in these special populations. This expert consensus， which is formulated based on the best available evidence， provides evidence-based guidance for standardized and individualized use of parenteral DTIs in special populations.

Objective: To explore the nonlinear dynamic effects of social capital, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and depressive symptoms on suicidal behavior among vocational high school students, so as to provide theoretical basis and practical references for formulating suicide prevention strategies. Methods: A convenience sampling method was employed to include 668 students from a vocational high school from Wuhan in March 2023. Social capital was used as the asymmetry variable, while ACEs and depressive symptoms were used as bifurcation variables, a cusp catastrophe model was constructed to analyze the nonlinear changes in suicidal behavior among vocational high school students, and its fit was compared with linear and Logistic regression models. Results: Among students in the health vocational high school in Wuhan, only suicidal ideation accounted for 8.5%, only suicide attempt for 18.6%, neither accounted for 31.9%, and both for 41.0%. Gender, left behind experience, family economic status, parental parenting styles, depressive symptoms, social capital, and ACEs were all related factors influencing suicidal behavior among vocational high school students ( χ 2/H=19.03, 13.33, 21.11, 46.70, 144.38, 24.61, 118.77, all P <0.05). Violin plots showed a bimodal distribution of suicidal behavior, indicating nonlinear variation characteristics. The cusp catastrophe model results showed that social capital was negatively correlated with suicidal behavior, but the relationship was bifurcated by ACEs ( α social capital = -0.006 , β ACEs =0.075) and depressive symptoms ( α social capital =-0.013, β depressive =0.028) (all P <0.05). When both ACEs and depressive symptoms coexisted, the impact of ACEs was stronger ( β ACEs =0.077, β depressive =0.014) (both P <0.05). The cusp catastrophe model fitted ( R 2=0.886, 0.881, 0.882) better than the linear ( R 2=0.258, 0.219, 0.258) and Logistic regression models ( R 2= 0.242, 0.211 , 0.176). Gender stratified analysis results showed that bifurcation effect of ACEs was stronger in males than in females( β boys =0.224, β girls =0.086); in females, both ACEs and depressive symptoms had a bifurcation effect, with the former showing a stronger effect ( β ACEs =0.062, β depressive =0.015) (all P <0.05). Conclusions Suicidal behavior among vocational high school students exhibits nonlinear characteristics. Improving social capital to reducing ACEs and depressive symptoms may contribute to decreasing adolescent suicidal behaviors.