1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Expert Consensus on Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid
Changkuan FU ; Xiaochang MA ; Mingjun ZHU ; Yue DENG ; Hongxu LIU ; Mingxue ZHANG ; Ying CHEN ; Yan ZHOU ; Ling ZHANG ; Jianhua FU ; Wei YANG ; Yu'er HU ; Ming CHEN ; Yanming XIE ; Yuanyuan LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):147-158
The prescription of Qidong Yixin oral liquid is derived from the experience of national medical master Ren Jixue in treating viral myocarditis (VMC). It has the functions of tonifying Qi, nourishing the heart,calming the mind, and relieving palpitations. It is used to treat VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease caused by deficiency of both Qi and Yin. However,the understanding of its efficacy evidence, advantageous aspects, dosage and administration, and medication safety remains insufficient in clinical practice. Therefore,the development of the Expert Consensus on the Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid (hereinafter referred to as consensus) was initiated. Consensus strictly followed the process and methods of the expert consensus on the clinical application of Chinese patent medicines of the China Association of Chinese Medicine,successively completing multiple tasks such as the consensus project initiation,determination of clinical problems,evidence search and evaluation,formation of recommendation opinions and consensus suggestions,solicitation of opinions,peer review, submission for review and release, and so on. Consensus formed a total of 10 recommendation opinions and 12 consensus suggestions,clarifying the clinical positioning,efficacy advantages,syndrome differentiation,dosage and administration,combination therapy,timing of medication,adverse reactions,contraindications, and precautions of Qidong Yixin oral liquid,indicating that it has good clinical advantages and safety in the treatment of VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease,providing norms and references for physicians to safely and rationally apply Qidong Yixin oral liquid. Consensus was reviewed and approved for release by the Standardization Office of the China Association of Chinese Medicine on December 23, 2024. Standard number:GSCACM-376-2024.
3.Pharmacodynamic Substances and Mechanisms of Xinglou Chengqi Tang in Treating Post-stroke Complications: A Review
Yujin ZHANG ; Xiangzhuo LIU ; Zhouyang CHEN ; Zihao SONG ; Xinyi LIU ; Yizhi YAN ; Chaoya LI ; Yingyan FANG ; Shasha YANG ; Xueqin CHENG ; Zhou XIE ; Sijie TAN ; Peng ZENG ; Yue ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):327-337
Stroke is the leading cause of death and disability among adults in China, and its common complications include digestive system abnormalities, cognitive impairment, depression, stroke-associated pneumonia, and hemiplegia. The combination of traditional Chinese and Western medicine has great potential in treating post-stroke complications. Xinglou Chengqitang (XLCQT) is a representative prescription of alleviating the disease in the upper part by treating the lower part. It has definite therapeutic effect and high safety. Clinically, XLCQT is often used to treat stroke and its complications. However, the quantity and quality of clinical trials of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications need to be improved. Additionally, since the basic research is weak, the material basis and multi-target mechanism for the efficacy of this prescription are unknown. This article reviews XLCQT in terms of the pharmacodynamic basis, medicinal properties, safety evaluation, and progress in clinical research and mechanisms in treating post-stroke complications. This article summarizes 22 key active ingredients of XLCQT in treating acute stroke complicated with syndrome of phlegm heat and fu-organ excess. Among these key active ingredients, resveratrol, kaempferol, luteolin, chrysoeriol, apigenin, (+)-catechin, and adenosine have good pharmacokinetic properties and high bioavailability. The mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications are complex, including inflammatory response, brain-gut axis, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, intestinal flora, neurotrophic factors, autophagy, oxidative stress, and free radical damage. This review helps to deeply understand the pharmacodynamic basis and mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications and provides a theoretical basis for the clinical application of XLCQT against post-stroke complications and the development of drugs.
4.Correlation of Symptom Burden and Nutritional Status of Patients with Cancer in Chemotherapy Stage Under Guidance of TCM Constitution
Bailu SUI ; Yuhang FANG ; Yi XIE ; Yan WANG ; Ying ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(2):127-132
Objective To investigate the relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status under Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) constitution classification in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Methods Data on the physical constitution, symptom burden, and nutritional status of 640 patients with malignant tumors within the 21st–28th days of chemotherapy treatment were collected and analyzed. Results Symptom burden was found to have a positive correlation with nutritional risk and TCM bias (except for idiosyncrasies), suggesting that constitution bias may be an important internal factor for the aggravation of clinical symptoms and malnutrition in patients with cancer. Conclusion The relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status in chemotherapy under the guidance of TCM constitution can be studied to predict the nutritional status and symptom burden of patients after chemotherapy to guide the symptom and nutritional management of patients with cancer in the chemotherapy stage.
5.Research progress of red light therapy for dry eye and visual fatigue
Yutong XIE ; Siyu JIA ; Jiamin GAO ; Ruofan LIU ; Meiling LI ; Jiangying LI ; Xi LUO ; Xiaonan LI ; Rong YAN ; Hongbo LI
International Eye Science 2026;26(4):636-640
Dry eye disease(DED)is a common ocular surface disorder worldwide, primarily characterized by a loss of homeostasis of the tear film, and frequently associated with meibomian gland dysfunction(MGD), decreased tear film stability, ocular discomfort, and visual impairment. In recent years, factors such as the widespread use of digital devices,the aging population, and environmental changes have contributed to a significant increase in its global prevalence, making it a major public health concern. Red light therapy(RLT), also known as low-level laser therapy(LLLT)or photobiomodulation(PBM), is a non-invasive treatment that utilizes low-energy red or near-infrared light to irradiate tissues. It exerts photobiomodulatory effects to promote cellular repair and functional recovery. This therapy has demonstrated considerable potential in treating various ocular conditions. Its broader clinical application could improve therapeutic outcomes, alleviate patient discomfort and financial burden, and reduce the consumption of healthcare resources, thereby yielding significant socio-economic benefits. This paper systematically reviews the multifaceted mechanisms and application prospects of RLT in managing DED, including its anti-inflammatory effects, improvement of meibomian gland function, promotion of conjunctival goblet cell repair, and alleviation of visual fatigue, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation and practical reference for its clinical adoption.
6.The effect of body mass index and inferior pulmonary ligament division on the residual lung expansion after right upper lobectomy: A retrospective cohort study in a single center
Guang MU ; Wenhao ZHANG ; Hongchang WANG ; Yan GU ; Chenghao FU ; Wentao XUE ; Shiyuan XIE ; Tong WANG ; Ke WEI ; Yang XIA ; Liang CHEN ; Jun WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(02):261-266
Objective To analyze the effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on right residual lung expansion after right upper lobe resection under different body mass index (BMI) levels. Methods The clinical data of patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection in the First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University from 2021 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a group A (17 kg/m2<BMI≤23 kg/m2), a group B (23 kg/m2<BMI≤29 kg/m2) and a group C (BMI>29 kg/m2) according to BMI. The presence of residual cavity was judged by chest X-ray at 7-10 days after operation, the degree of compensation change of the right main bronchus angle was measured, and the changes in lung volume were determined by CT three-dimensional reconstruction. Results A total of 157 patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection were included, including 71 males and 86 females, with an average age of (59.7±11.2) years. There were 50 patients in the group A, 75 patients in the group B, and 32 patients in the group C. In the group A, compared with those without releasing the lower pulmonary ligament, patients with releasing had a lower incidence of postoperative residual cavity (P=0.016), greater changes in bronchus angle (P<0.001), and smaller changes in lung volume (P<0.001). In the group B and C, there was no significant effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on postoperative residual cavity, bronchus angle, and lung volume changes (P>0.05). Conclusion For patients with thin and long body shape and low BMI, releasing the lower pulmonary ligament is helpful to promote the expansion of the residual lung after right upper lobe resection and reduce the occurrence of postoperative residual cavity in patients.
7.Mammalian pluripotent stem cells:effects on creating disease models,pathogenesis,drug discovery and personalized treatment
Wenqiang XU ; Haolin CHEN ; Chang YAN ; Tao XU ; Yabin XIE ; Xueling LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(1):136-146
BACKGROUND:The self-renewal and multi-directional differentiation of pluripotent stem cells possess the potential to revolutionize people's understanding of biology,medicine,development,and disease.Stem cells play an important role in the early stage of embryonic development,and the study of them could be beneficial to understanding of the basic principles of biological development and tissue or organ formation,exploring the potential mechanisms of various diseases,studying the repair and regeneration of damaged tissues or organs,and promoting drug discovery and personalized treatment. OBJECTIVE:To review the research progress of pluripotent stem cells,summarize and categorize the fundamental types of pluripotent stem cells,and elucidate the lineage situations of various types of pluripotent stem cells in common mammals. METHODS:PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and WanFang databases were searched systematically,with the keywords"pluripotent stem cells;embryonic stem cells;induced pluripotent stem cells;expanded potential stem cells;livestock pluripotent stem cells"in English and Chinese.The 99 articles related to mammalian pluripotent stem cells were systematically screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria,and then reviewed. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)According to classical theory in mouse embryonic stem cell research,the pluripotent state of stem cells is divided into two forms:na?ve and primed.Na?ve state corresponds to the inner cell mass of pre-implantation embryos before attachment to the uterine wall,while primed state corresponds to the epiblast after implantation.These two states exhibit significant differences in epigenetic features,transcriptional activity,external signal dependency,and metabolic phenotype.It is later discovered that there is an intermediate state between na?ve and primed called formative pluripotency.Therefore,the pluripotency of pluripotent stem cells is a continuous developmental process rather than a unique cell state.(2)In addition to obtaining pluripotent stem cells from the inner cell mass,there are various methods and lineages for acquiring pluripotent stem cells,including embryonic germ cells established using primitive germ cells from mouse embryos,induced pluripotent stem cells created by the dedifferentiation of adult mouse and human fibroblasts with four factors—Oct3/4,Sox2,c-Myc,and Klf4;embryonic stem cell-like cell lines cultured from somatic cell nuclear transfer,parthenogenesis,neonatal or adult testicular or ovarian tissue,very small embryonic-like stem cells derived from various adult tissues and expanded pluripotent stem cells derived from pre-implantation stages.These pluripotent stem cells all share the common characteristics of continuous self-renewal,expressing core pluripotency factors and possessing the ability to differentiate into the three primary germ layers.(3)Currently,pluripotent stem cells are being used for disease modeling to study the mechanisms of various diseases and develop new drugs.Simultaneously,scientists are attempting to use pluripotent stem cells to cultivate various tissues and organs,offering new possibilities for regenerative medicine and transplantation.However,the clinical application of pluripotent stem cells faces safety challenges,including issues of cell mutations and immune rejection.Continual improvement in the methods of generating pluripotent stem cells will make them safer and more efficient for clinical applications.(4)Based on the methods of obtaining and lineage establishment of pluripotent stem cells in mice and humans,various types of pluripotent stem cells have been established in livestock,including embryonic stem cells,induced pluripotent stem cells,germ lineages of pluripotent stem cells,and expanded potential stem cells.Research on livestock pluripotent stem cells opens up new avenues for animal reproduction,breeding,genetic engineering,disease modeling,drug screening,and the conservation of endangered wildlife.
8.Long-Term Real-World Outcomes of Tenofovir Alafenamide in Chronic Hepatitis B: Detailed Analysis of Treatment-Naive and Experienced Patients
Yu-Xuan SONG ; Guang-Jun SONG ; Hui MA ; Bo FENG ; Yan-Di XIE
The Korean Journal of Gastroenterology 2025;85(1):64-72
Background/Aims:
This study assessed the long-term efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) in real-world settings.
Methods:
Patients who were candidates for TAF treatment and were followed up at 12-week intervals over 192 weeks were enrolled in this study.
Results:
One hundred and forty-four patients (50 treatment-naive and 94 treatment-experienced) were included in this study. The cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma at 192 weeks were 3.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In treatment-naive patients, the rates of a virological response, HBeAg conversion, and HBsAg loss at 192 weeks were 100%, 33.3%, and 2%, respectively. The treatment-naive patients exhibited higher baseline HBsAg levels than the treatment-experienced patients (4.31 log10IU/mL vs. 3.97 log10IU/mL). A significant decrease in the HBsAg levels from the baseline was observed at 144 and 192 weeks in the treatment-naive patients (p=0.01). The baseline body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (p=0.02) and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL (p=0.04) were identified as predictive factors for a decrease in HBsAg ≥0.5 log10IU/mL at 48 weeks. The eGFR levels were consistently lower in the treatment-experienced patients throughout the study. Although the treatment-naive patients showed no abnormal increases in urinary URBP, the treatment-experienced patients showed elevated urinary β2MG and NAG levels at the baseline, which decreased over the treatment course. The total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups.
Conclusions
Prolonging the TAF treatment duration enhances the virological response rate. The decline in HBsAg levels was more significant in the treatment-naive patients than in the treatment-experienced patients. The baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 and HBsAg <3.3 log10IU/mL were predictive factors for a significant decline in HBsAg at 48 weeks. TAF has high renal safety and no significant impact on lipid levels.
9.Study on preparation technology and quality standard of Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment
Xiaojun PANG ; Yan XIE ; Xing CHEN
China Pharmacy 2025;36(4):447-453
OBJECTIVE To optimize the preparation technology of Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment and to establish its quality standard. METHODS Using oil phase dosage, emulsifier dosage and emulsification temperature as the indicators, the preparation technology of Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment was optimized by response surface method. Gallus gallus domesticus and Angelica sinensis in the ointment were identified by TLC. The property of the ointment was observed, and its particle size and deliverable volume were inspected according to Chinese Pharmacopoeia. The contents of uridine, ferulic acid and ligustilide in the ointment were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS The optimal preparation technology of Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment was as follows: 4.0 g of white vaseline, 7.0 g of liquid paraffin, 5.0 g of lanolin (oil phase), 0.44 g of triethanolamine as the emulsifier, and emulsification temperature of 78 ℃ . Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment prepared according to the optimal preparation method was a beige paste, and its particle size and deliverable volume inspection all met the requirements of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. The identification of TLC for G. gallus domesticus and A. sinensis obtained satisfactory results. The linear ranges of uridine, ferulic acid and ligustilide were 1.6-25.6 μg/mL, 0.003 15-0.100 8 mg/mL, 0.006- 0.192 mg/mL (all r>0.999). RSD for the inspection, stability, reproducibility and recovery tests were all less than 2%( n=6). The average contents of uridine, ferulic acid and ligustilide were 0.081 2, 0.100 0 and 0.396 9 mg/g, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The optimal preparation technology can be used for the production of the in-hospital preparation of Jineijin danggui ruchuang ointment; the content determination method can be used for the quality control of the ointment.
10.Ameliorating effects of tetrahydrocurcumin and its nano-preparations on lipopolysaccharide-induced depression in mice
Hui Tan ; Yuanping Li ; Jingyuan Meng ; Tengteng Ma ; Yan Yang ; Zhengmao Yang ; Jiaqing Ma ; Jianping Xie ; Ying Guo
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(1):79-86
Objective :
To investigate the antidepressant effects and the underlying mechanisms of tetrahydrocurcumin(THC) and its nanoparticle formulation(THCN).
Methods :
Forty-six male ICR mice were randomly divided into Con group, LPS group, THC group, THCN group and SER group. A mouse depression model was established by intraperitoneal administration of LPS. The anxiety and depression-like behaviors of mice were evaluated by open field test(OFT) and forced swimming test(FST). Myelin staining was applied to assess the extent of demyelination in the prefrontal cortex of the mice. The prefrontal cortex and hippocampus were further examined for the expression levels of glial fibrillary acidic protein(GFAP) and Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4) through quantitative immunofluorescence assays.
Results :
Compared with the Con group, the LPS group showed increased anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors in both the long-term and short-term experiments(P<0.05); the degree of demyelination increased in the LPS group of the long-term experiment(P<0.01); the expression of GFAP was reduced in the LPS group of the short-term experiment(P<0.01), while the expression of TLR4 increased(P<0.05); the expression of TLR4 decreased in the THC group(P<0.01); the expression of GFAP in the prefrontal cortex of the THCN group was reduced(P<0.01), while the expression of TLR4 increased(P<0.05). Compared with the LPS group, the THC group showed reduced depressive-like behaviors in the long-term experiment(P<0.05), while the anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors of the THCN group and the SER group were reduced(P<0.05), and the anxiety-like and depressive-like behaviors of the THC group and the THCN group were reduced in the short-term experiment(P<0.05); the degree of demyelination was reduced in the THC group, THCN group and SER group in the long-term experiment(P<0.05); the expression of GFAP increased in the THC group of the short-term experiment(P<0.05), while the expression of TLR4 was reduced(P<0.05), and the expression of GFAP increased in the THCN group(P<0.05). Compared with the THC group, the THCN group and the SER group showed reduced anxiety-like behaviors in the long-term experiment(P<0.05); the expression of GFAP in the prefrontal cortex of the THCN group was reduced in the short-term experiment(P<0.05), while the expression of TLR4 in the hippocampal DG area increased in the short-term experiment(P<0.01).
Conclusion
Tetrahydrocurcumin and its nanoparticle formulation both exert significant ameliorative effects on depression-like behaviors and demyelination in mice induced by lipopolysaccharide. The antidepressant mechanism of THC appears to be mediated through the down-regulation of TLR4 and the up-regulation of GFAP. The mechanism underlying the antidepressant action of THCN seems predominantly focused on the enhancement of GFAP expression.


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