Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo verify the association between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis by constructing an in vitro co-culture system of testis. MethodsTesticular tissue blocks from 20-25-day-old male rats were placed in an in vitro culture system， and the culture medium was replaced every 2 to 3 days. PCR was used to verify the expression of marker genes of various spermatogenic cells. RNA interference technology was employed to verify the correlation between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis. ResultsThe co-culture system could be continuously cultured for more than 2.5 months in vitro. RT-PCR showed that specific marker genes of spermatogonia， spermatocyte and spermoblast were expressed. The RNA and protein expression of Trib3 and Akt changed after the knocking down of Ddit3 and Trib3， respectively. It demonstrated the existence of Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway in rat spermatogenesis. ConclusionThe culture time of more than 2.5 months indicates that the culture system can temporarily maintain the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells， and simultaneously maintain and stabilize spermatogenesis in a simple system. The successful validation of the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway also confirms that this culture system can be used to study possible molecular mechanisms of spermatogenesis in vitro.

Objective To investigate the perioperative safety of patients with myasthenia gravis who take high doses of oral glucocorticoids. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with myasthenia gravis who received oral glucocorticoids and underwent thoracoscopic thymectomy at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital from April 2013 to October 2019. Patients were divided into a high-dose steroid group and a medium-to-low dose steroid group based on the dosage of oral steroids, and the clinical data of the two groups were compared. Results A total of 102 patients were included, including 19 (18.62%) males and 83 (81.37%) females, with an average age of (32.25±9.83) years. There were 75 patients in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 27 patients in the high-dose steroid group. All patients in both groups successfully completed the surgery without major intraoperative bleeding, conversion to open chest surgery, delayed extubation, severe infection, or perioperative death. The daily oral steroid dose for the high-dose steroid group was (35.81±4.29) mg, and for the medium-to-low dose steroid group it was (15.29±2.17) mg. There was no statistical difference in the operation time [(124.69±23.51) min vs. (117.89±21.46) min, P=0.172] and intraoperative blood loss [(21.19±3.48) mL vs. (20.56±3.41) mL, P=0.419] between the two groups. Postoperatively, 12 (11.76%) patients developed complications: one patient of myasthenic crisis (the medium-to-low dose steroid group), which was improved after short-term respiratory support and intravenous immunoglobulin treatment; 11 patients of respiratory/swallowing difficulties (9 in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 2 in the high-dose steroid group), which were improved after anticholinergic treatment to reduce oral secretions and sputum suction, and the patients were discharged smoothly. There was no statistical difference in the incidence of postoperative complications between the two groups (P=0.637). Conclusion On the basis of good perioperative management, it is safe and feasible for patients with myasthenia gravis who take high dose of oral steroids to undergo thymectomy, and they have the same perioperative safety as patients with medium-to-low dose steroids.

ObjectiveTo dynamically observe and evaluate the damage to the pulmonary air-blood barrier in mice during the inflammatory cancer transformation process of ulcerative colitis （UC） based on the "lung-intestine correlation" theory. MethodsSixty-five C57BL/6 mice were divided into a normal group （n=25） and a model group （n=40） using a random number table. Azoxymethane/dextran sodium sulfate （DSS） method was used to establish a mouse model of UC inflammation cancer transformation in the modeling group. According to the tissue collection time points at 5， 8， 11， 13， and 15 weeks， the normal group mice were randomly divided into the normal 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. The model group mice， 10 mice of which died after the first cycle of DSS administration， were randomly divided into model 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. During the experiment， the general condition of the mice was observed daily， and their body weight was measured weekly. At the corresponding tissue collection time points， the colon length of each group was measured. Histopathology of mouse lung and colon tissues was examined using HE staining. Immunofluorescence was used to detect changes in the positive expression of tight junction protein （ZO-1）， vascular endothelial cadherin （VE-cadherin）， and cytoskeletal protein （F-actin） in lung and colon tissues. RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression of apoptosis regulatory proteins B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， BCL2-associated X protein （Bax）， and Cysteine aspartic acid protease-3 （Caspase-3） in lung tissues. Western Blot was employed to measure protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin in lung tissues. ResultsCompared to the normal group at the same time point， the mice in the model group at each time point generally had poorer conditions， with weight loss and shortened colon length （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）. In the model 5w group， there was significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the colon tissue； in the model 8w group， there was mild atypical hyperplasia； in the model 11w group， the crypt structure was disordered， and moderate to severe atypical hyperplasia occurred； in the model 13w and 15w groups， tumors appeared. Pulmonary interstitial lesions， inflammation， vasculitis， and fibrosis were observed at all stages of UC inflammation cancer transformation. The protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin， as well as Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA increased； the expressions of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin proteins in colon tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. Compared to the model 5w group， the ZO-1 and F-actin protein levels and Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue in the other model groups increased in the atypical hyperplasia period and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA decreased； the expression of ZO-1 protein in colon tissue increased in the canceration period， and the expression of VE-cadherin protein decreased in the atypical hyperplasia period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. ConclusionIn the process of "inflammatory response-atypical hyperplasia-carcinogenesis" in UC inflammatory cancer transformation mice， there were damage to air-blood barrier.

Guided by the theory of turbid pathogen disturbing clarity， this paper holds that the pathogenesis of otolith disorders involves the failure of clear yang to ascend and the internal generation of phlegm-turbidity as the initiating factors. The clinical manifestations are characterized by the intermingling of phlegm and fluid， as well as the disturbance between turbid and clear substances， while the root lies in spleen-kidney deficiency and depletion of primordial qi. Treatment strategies are formulated according to the different stages of the disease： in the acute phase， therapy focuses on warming and resolving phlegm-fluid retention， using a modified combination of Linggui Zhugan Decoction （苓桂术甘汤） and Zexie Decoction （泽泻汤）； in the residual phase， the approach shifts to tonifying qi and uplifting clear yang， with a modified combination of Shengxian Decoction （升陷汤） and Shengmai Power （生脉散）； in the consolidation phase， therapy aims to tonify the kidney and replenish essence， employing a modified version of Qiju Dihuang Pill （杞菊地黄丸）.

To report a case of an immunocompetent young adult male patient diagnosed with intracranial Aspergillus flavus infection， and to investigate the clinical features of this disease and related experience in diagnosis and treatment.A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of a patient who had the initial presentation of high fever and headache and then progressed to meningoencephalitis， and the results of cerebrospinal fluid （CSF） metagenomic next-generation sequencing （mNGS） and treatment outcomes were summarized.The patient had an acute onset， with no response to empirical anti-infective therapy in the incipient stage， and then he gradually developed disturbance of consciousness and meningeal irritation sign. CSF analysis showed inflammatory changes， while conventional pathogen tests yielded negative results， and mNGS detected 27 specific sequences of Aspergillus flavus. The symptoms of the patient was significantly improved after antifungal therapy with voriconazole， with no recurrence after follow-up for 3 months.For unexplained central nervous system infections， especially those with negative results from conventional tests， mNGS can improve the detection rate of rare pathogens（e.g.，Aspergillus flavus）. Early diagnosis and targeted antifungal therapy are crucial for improving prognosis. This case highlights that invasive fungal infections should be considered even in immunocompetent individuals.
Aspergillus flavus

OBJECTIVE To investigate the pharmaceutical affairs management in healthcare institutions from Haidian district of Beijing， and propose countermeasures and suggestions for improving the related work. METHODS The current status of pharmaceutical affairs management in 66 healthcare institutions from Haidian district of Beijing was surveyed through on-site inspections， and the results were statistically analyzed. The inspection items included six special projects： pharmaceutical affairs management and organizational structure of pharmacy departments； drug quality management and control， prescription review， clinical application management of antimicrobial drugs， management of adverse drug events， and management of special drugs. These areas were further divided into a total of 27 specific inspection sub-items. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS The total proportion of healthcare institutions that fully complied or basically complied with each special project was 90.9%， 97.0%， 86.3%， 90.9%， 90.9%， and 96.9%， respectively. The overall comparison among healthcare institutions that fully or substantially met the standards across medical institutions at different levels showed that the performance of tertiary healthcare institutions was better than that of secondary and primary healthcare institutions. The pharmaceutical affairs management in healthcare institutions within the jurisdiction was proceeding in an orderly manner. There is still room for improvement in further establishing and perfecting the functions of the pharmaceutical affairs management committee， implementing the 2021 Edition of Management Regulations for β -lactam Antimicrobial Skin Tests， enforcing the adverse drug reaction management system， and strengthening the refined management of narcotics and psychotropic drugs.

ObjectiveTo investigate and analyze an outbreak of rotavirus infectious diarrhea in a prison in Chongqing Municipality, to provide a basis for adult rotavirus surveillance and prevention, and to explore the public health problems in special settings. MethodsA retrospective survey was conducted to collect and analyze data on individual cases with diarrheal disease on-site. The clinical characteristics, as well as the temporal, spatial and geographical distribution patterns of the epidemic were described. Multi-pathogen detection tests were conducted both on diarrhea cases and environmental samples, with viral genotyping performed on positive samples. A case-control analysis was performed to identify the causes of the outbreak, and an SEIR model was adopted to predict the outbreak trend and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. ResultsA total of 65 cases were found among the inmates, with an attack rate of 2.03%. The predominant clinical manifestations included diarrhea (89.23%), watery stool (73.85%), and dehydration (18.46%). The epidemic curve indicated a “human-to-human” transmission pattern, with an average incubation period of 5‒6 days. The attack rates among chefs in the main canteen (80.00%, 8/10) and caterers (28.33%, 17/60) were significantly higher than those of other inmates （P<0.05）. Multi-pathogen polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing detected positive for group A rotavirus, with the viral genotyping identified as G9P [8] strain. Factors such as unprotected "bare-handed" food distribution among cases with diarrhea (OR=9.512, 95%CI: 4.261‒21.234) and close contact with diarrhea cases (OR=3.656, 95%CI: 1.719‒7.778) were the possible cause of the outbreak. The SEIR model (r₀=5, α=0.3, β₁=0.08, β₂=0.04) was constructed using prison inmates as susceptible population, aiming at fitting the initial transmission trend of the outbreak, and the epidemic rate declined rapidly after intervention measures were implemented (r_t≈0). ConclusionThis rare rotavirus infection diarrhea outbreak among adults in confined settings suggests that the construction of public health prevention and control systems in prison may be overlooked. Cross infection during meal processing and distribution in the canteens of such settings is likely to be the cause of the outbreak. Given the potential neglect of public heath system construction in special settings, it is imperative to enhance the surveillance and monitoring of rotavirus and other intestinal multi-pathogens among adults, as well as the construction of public health prevention and control systems in these special settings.

Mental state is an important part of the normal life activities of the human body, and it is also the most external expression and the most easily obtained information of the physical condition. The normal activities of the mind depend on the normal operation of the viscera, qi, and blood, and are a unified whole that prospers together and suffers together. The theory of the five-spirit-viscera in the Yellow Emperor’s Inner Classic revealed that the normal mental activities of the human body were dominated by the five internal organs, that is, the five internal organs were the body and the five spirits were the function. And it highlighted the viewpoint that the five internal organs store the spirits and are actually one. The heart governs the spirit and belongs to the four internal organs. On this basis, Synopsis of Golden Chamber used the internal organs to diagnose and treat mental diseases, integrating the theory of the five spirits into it, forming a unique method of diagnosis and treatment with the heart as the leading factor and regulating the qi and blood of the four internal organs. It identified the pathogenesis of diseases such as pathogenic crying, lily disease, and hysteria from five levels: heart deficiency and weak qi, heart-lung disharmony, heart-liver disharmony, the heart of the loss of the spleen nourishment, and disharmony between heart and kidney. The treatment was mainly to replenish the deficiency of the viscera and eliminate the pathogens, reflecting the characteristics of regulating the mind and calming the four internal organs. This unique view on diagnosis and treatment has profoundly influenced the diagnosis and treatment theories of mental illnesses by later doctors, and is of great significance to the current clinical treatment of such illnesses.

INTRODUCTION: Outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in patients with heart failure (HF) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) remain poorly defined. METHOD: In a highly vaccinated cohort of adult Singapore citizens and permanent residents, we used Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for sociodemographic variables and comorbidities) to compare the risks of Omicron infection, COVID-19- related hospitalisation, and severe COVID-19 between indivi-duals with HF or IHD and matched controls without these conditions. RESULTS: From national databases, we identified 15,426 HF patients matched 1:∼3 to 41,221 controls, and 110,442 IHD patients matched 1:∼2 to 223,843 controls. Over 80% of HF and IHD patients had received at least 3 vaccine doses. During the Omicron-predominant period, both HF and IHD cohorts demonstrated higher adjusted risks of COVID-19 hospitalisation compared with matched controls (HF: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-1.90; IHD: aHR 1.21, 95% CI 1.17-1.26). Among those with at least 1 HF-or IHD-related admission in the prior year, hospitalisation risk was further elevated (HF: aHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42; IHD: aHR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.23). Receipt of ≥3 vaccine doses was associated with substantially lower risk of severe COVID-19 versus only 2 doses (HF: aHR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.43; IHD: aHR 0.27, 95% CI 0.23-0.32). A fourth dose conferred additional reductions in infection and adverse outcomes, though CIs for infection overlapped with those for 3 doses. CONCLUSION During Omicron predominance, HF and IHD patients experienced greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and severe COVID-19 versus matched controls. Booster vaccinations attenuated these risks. Individuals with recent HF/IHD admissions should be prioritised for receipt of booster vaccine doses.
Humans ; COVID-19/complications* ; Male ; Heart Failure/complications* ; Myocardial Ischemia/complications* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data* ; Aged ; COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage* ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Adult ; Case-Control Studies ; Vaccination/statistics & numerical data*