Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo verify the association between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis by constructing an in vitro co-culture system of testis. MethodsTesticular tissue blocks from 20-25-day-old male rats were placed in an in vitro culture system， and the culture medium was replaced every 2 to 3 days. PCR was used to verify the expression of marker genes of various spermatogenic cells. RNA interference technology was employed to verify the correlation between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis. ResultsThe co-culture system could be continuously cultured for more than 2.5 months in vitro. RT-PCR showed that specific marker genes of spermatogonia， spermatocyte and spermoblast were expressed. The RNA and protein expression of Trib3 and Akt changed after the knocking down of Ddit3 and Trib3， respectively. It demonstrated the existence of Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway in rat spermatogenesis. ConclusionThe culture time of more than 2.5 months indicates that the culture system can temporarily maintain the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells， and simultaneously maintain and stabilize spermatogenesis in a simple system. The successful validation of the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway also confirms that this culture system can be used to study possible molecular mechanisms of spermatogenesis in vitro.

Objective To investigate the perioperative safety of patients with myasthenia gravis who take high doses of oral glucocorticoids. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with myasthenia gravis who received oral glucocorticoids and underwent thoracoscopic thymectomy at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital from April 2013 to October 2019. Patients were divided into a high-dose steroid group and a medium-to-low dose steroid group based on the dosage of oral steroids, and the clinical data of the two groups were compared. Results A total of 102 patients were included, including 19 (18.62%) males and 83 (81.37%) females, with an average age of (32.25±9.83) years. There were 75 patients in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 27 patients in the high-dose steroid group. All patients in both groups successfully completed the surgery without major intraoperative bleeding, conversion to open chest surgery, delayed extubation, severe infection, or perioperative death. The daily oral steroid dose for the high-dose steroid group was (35.81±4.29) mg, and for the medium-to-low dose steroid group it was (15.29±2.17) mg. There was no statistical difference in the operation time [(124.69±23.51) min vs. (117.89±21.46) min, P=0.172] and intraoperative blood loss [(21.19±3.48) mL vs. (20.56±3.41) mL, P=0.419] between the two groups. Postoperatively, 12 (11.76%) patients developed complications: one patient of myasthenic crisis (the medium-to-low dose steroid group), which was improved after short-term respiratory support and intravenous immunoglobulin treatment; 11 patients of respiratory/swallowing difficulties (9 in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 2 in the high-dose steroid group), which were improved after anticholinergic treatment to reduce oral secretions and sputum suction, and the patients were discharged smoothly. There was no statistical difference in the incidence of postoperative complications between the two groups (P=0.637). Conclusion On the basis of good perioperative management, it is safe and feasible for patients with myasthenia gravis who take high dose of oral steroids to undergo thymectomy, and they have the same perioperative safety as patients with medium-to-low dose steroids.

ObjectiveTo dynamically observe and evaluate the damage to the pulmonary air-blood barrier in mice during the inflammatory cancer transformation process of ulcerative colitis （UC） based on the "lung-intestine correlation" theory. MethodsSixty-five C57BL/6 mice were divided into a normal group （n=25） and a model group （n=40） using a random number table. Azoxymethane/dextran sodium sulfate （DSS） method was used to establish a mouse model of UC inflammation cancer transformation in the modeling group. According to the tissue collection time points at 5， 8， 11， 13， and 15 weeks， the normal group mice were randomly divided into the normal 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. The model group mice， 10 mice of which died after the first cycle of DSS administration， were randomly divided into model 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. During the experiment， the general condition of the mice was observed daily， and their body weight was measured weekly. At the corresponding tissue collection time points， the colon length of each group was measured. Histopathology of mouse lung and colon tissues was examined using HE staining. Immunofluorescence was used to detect changes in the positive expression of tight junction protein （ZO-1）， vascular endothelial cadherin （VE-cadherin）， and cytoskeletal protein （F-actin） in lung and colon tissues. RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression of apoptosis regulatory proteins B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， BCL2-associated X protein （Bax）， and Cysteine aspartic acid protease-3 （Caspase-3） in lung tissues. Western Blot was employed to measure protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin in lung tissues. ResultsCompared to the normal group at the same time point， the mice in the model group at each time point generally had poorer conditions， with weight loss and shortened colon length （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）. In the model 5w group， there was significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the colon tissue； in the model 8w group， there was mild atypical hyperplasia； in the model 11w group， the crypt structure was disordered， and moderate to severe atypical hyperplasia occurred； in the model 13w and 15w groups， tumors appeared. Pulmonary interstitial lesions， inflammation， vasculitis， and fibrosis were observed at all stages of UC inflammation cancer transformation. The protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin， as well as Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA increased； the expressions of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin proteins in colon tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. Compared to the model 5w group， the ZO-1 and F-actin protein levels and Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue in the other model groups increased in the atypical hyperplasia period and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA decreased； the expression of ZO-1 protein in colon tissue increased in the canceration period， and the expression of VE-cadherin protein decreased in the atypical hyperplasia period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. ConclusionIn the process of "inflammatory response-atypical hyperplasia-carcinogenesis" in UC inflammatory cancer transformation mice， there were damage to air-blood barrier.

Background/Aims: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a primary malignant neoplasm with an extremely poor prognosis. While combined chemoradiotherapy has been demonstrated to delay CCA progression to a certain extent, the absence of specific molecular biomarkers or targets significantly hinders the diagnosis and treatment of CCA. Methods: Through cross-analysis of proteomics and ADMA modificationomics, we identified DDX1 overexpressed in CCA with elevated R602-ADMA modifications. HPLC-MS/MS identified PRMT1 as the methyltransferase and USP10 as the deubiquitinating enzyme for DDX1. Immunofluorescence and nuclear-cytoplasmic partitioning experiments confirmed DDX1’s nuclear localization. GO and KEGG analyses clarify the biological functions of DDX1 in response to hypoxia. RNA-seq transcriptomics analyzed key pathways influenced by DDX1. A hydrodynamic in situ CCA mouse model was established to validate the chemopreventive effects of the PRMT1-specific inhibitor GSK715 on CCA development. Results: DDX1 promotes CCA progression both in vivo and in vitro and can be inhibited by GSK715. Mechanistically, PRMT1 mediates ADMA modification at position R602 of DDX1. This modification promotes DDX1 nuclear localization by recruiting USP10 to deubiquitinate DDX1, while simultaneously inhibiting PRMT1 degradation. DDX1 promotes the transcription of PRMT1 and USP10 by binding to the mRNA 3’UTR region, establishing a positive feedback regulatory pathway. This mechanism promotes the occurrence and development of CCA and can serve as a target for the inhibitor GSK715 to suppress CCA progression. Conclusions Our study identified DDX1-R602-ADMA modification as a novel ADMA modification in CCA. It further confirmed its pivotal role in CCA progression. Targeting the USP10-PRMT1-DDX1 axis may represent a significant therapeutic approach for CCA.

Objective:To systematically search and summarize high-quality evidence-based evidence on the prevention and management of refeeding syndrome in patients with anorexia nervosa, and to provide a basis for preventive management of patients at high risk.Methods:A computerized search was conducted for evidence on the prevention and management of refeeding syndrome in patients with anorexia nervosa in relevant domestic and international databases and professional team websites, including clinical decision-making, guidelines, expert consensus, evidence summaries and systematic evaluations, and randomized controls. The search timeframe was from database construction to August 2024. Two researchers trained in systematic evidence-based knowledge independently performed literature screening, quality assessment, and extraction and summarization of evidence according to inclusion and exclusion criteria.Results:A total of 15 publications were included, which contained 4 guidelines, 3 expert consensus, 3 clinical decision-making, 3 systematic evaluations, and 2 randomized control trials. Thirty-one pieces of evidence for the prevention and management of refeeding syndrome were summarized in seven areas: treatment team, risk factors, risk assessment, preventive measures, clinical diagnosis, management measures, and patient safety.Conclusions:The best evidence summarized in this study for the prevention and management of refeeding syndrome in anorexia nervosa provides an evidence-based basis for practitioners to implement refeeding syndrome prevention and management measures.

OBJECTIVE To explore the time windows for postoperative pneumonia in patients undergoing different surgeries,providing evidence-based references for optimizing infection monitoring and prevention and control strategies.METHODS Sociodemographic characteristics,clinical information and surgical details of 263 patients with postoperative pneumonia from four different types of medical institutions between Jan.2019 and Dec.2024 were retrospectively collected.The time windows for postoperative pneumonia in patients undergoing different surgeries were analyzed.RESULTS There were no statistically significant differences in the time windows for post-operative pneumonia among groups in terms of sociodemographic factors and underlying diseases.However,sta-tistically significant differences were observed in the time windows for postoperative pneumonia based on surgery type,incision type,surgical approach and surgery duration(P＜0.05).The average time for the onset of postop-erative pneumonia in 263 patients was 2.00(1.00,7.00)days.The postoperative time windows varied for sur-geries involving different systems.The peak incidence occurred on day 0(16 cases)and day 1(17 cases)af-ter neurological surgery,while the peak incidence for digestive system and orthopedic surgeries was on day 1.The time span for the onset of pneumonia after skin surgeries was wider(0-53 days postoperatively)without a clear peak.In addition,33.33％of cardiovascular system surgery cases developed pneumonia 10 days postoperatively.There were also significant time differences in the diagnostic elements of postoperative pneumonia,with fever and abnormal white blood cell counts appearing earlier(median appearance time length:4.00 days)than lung imaging changes(median appearance time length:7.00 days).CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates significant time differences in the on-set of postoperative pneumonia and confirms the significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the diagnostic elements of postoperative pneumonia.These findings provide a quantitative basis for developing dynamic,surgery-type-spe-cific monitoring protocols and prevention and control measures for postoperative pneumonia.

Objective To define the operation scale of the biochemical test project based on the risk model,and design the statistical quality control(SQC)strategy by rationally adjusting the risk factors.Methods The σ(σ)values for the biochemistry test items were calculated based on the imprecision(CV)of internal quality control(IQC),external quality assessment(EQA)offset bias(Bias)and allowable total error(TEa)of CLIA 2019.By evaluating and adjusting the patient risk factors,designed the SQC for multiple test biochemical items representing high σ,medium σ and low σ categories.Results Clinical biochemistry testing items with different QC levels showed different σ performance,with values for P and K quality control levels 2 higher than level 1 and the remaining items all had very similar.18 projects for risk σ≥4.96:CK,LDH,GGT,AMY,AST,MG,TG,TBIL,FE,NA,UA,CREA,P,ALP,K,ALT and CA,respectively.Controlled with a QC program 13s N=2,run size was 179～1 000 samples.ALB,GLU,CL,TP and UREA need to achieve the expected operational scale by adjusting for risk factors.Conclusion The laboratory can combine program testing performance and patient safety goals,design SQC strategies for clinical biochemistry testing programs by rationally adjusting risk factors,apply as few SQC procedures for as much testing as possible,and align the laboratory workload and reporting interval with the number of patient samples.

Objective To investigate the effects and mechanisms of Huatan Quyu Decoction on learning and memory abilities in rats with vascular dementia(VD).Methods Totally 112 male SD rats were randomly selected with 16 rats as the sham-operation group,the remaining rats were used to prepare VD models by segmental ligation of the common carotid artery.The successfully modeled rats were randomly divided into model group,Huatan Quyu Decoction low-,medium-and high-dosage groups(6.1,12.1,24.2 g/kg),donepezil hydrochloride group(0.5 mg/kg)and combination group(Huatan Quyu Decoction 12.1 g/kg+donepezil hydrochloride 0.5 mg/kg),with 16 rats in each group.Each group was given the corresponding treatment measures for 4 weeks.The Morris water maze test was used to assess learning and memory abilities,neurological function was evaluated using Garcia score,HE staining was used to observe the morphology of the hippocampal tissue,ELISA was employed to detect the serum content of Aβ,immunohistochemistry was utilized to observe the β-catenin,LRP6 and GSK-3β protein expression in brain tissue.Results Compared with the sham-operation group,the escape latency of the model group rats was prolonged(P<0.01),the number of crossing platforms was reduced(P<0.01),and the neurological deficit score was decreased(P<0.01),the arrangement of hippocampal tissue cells was disorderly,and the tissue was severely damaged,the serum Aβ content increased(P<0.01),the expressions of β-catenin and LRP6 protein in brain tissue decreased,and the expression of GSK-3β protein increased(P<0.01).Compared with the model group,the escape latency of rats in each administration group was shortened,the number of crossing platforms increased,the neurological deficit score increased,the number of hippocampal cells was relatively more,the arrangement was more orderly,and the structure was relatively complete,the serum Aβ content decreased,the expressions of β-catenin and LRP6 proteins increased,and the expression of GSK-3β protein decreased.Among them,Huatan Quyu Decoction high-dosage group had a significantly better effect than Huatan Quyu Decoction low-and medium-dosage groups(P<0.01),and there was no statistical significance in various indicators compared with the donepezil hydrochloride group(P>0.05).Compared with the donepezil hydrochloride group,the combination group showed significant improvements in learning and memory abilities(P<0.01),the neurological deficit score significantly increased(P<0.01),the number of hippocampal cells significantly increased,arranged neatly,and structurally intact,the serum Aβ content significantly decreased(P<0.01),the expression of β-catenin and LRP6 proteins significantly increased,and the expression of GSK-3β protein significantly decreased(P<0.01).Conclusion Huatan Quyu Decoction can repair cognitive function in VD rats,improve learning and memory abilities,and alleviate VD symptoms by activating the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway to reduce serum Aβ content,decrease the apoptosis of nerve cells and alleviate the degree of pathological damage in hippocampal tissue.

Objective:To investigate the related factors of cognitive impairment in middle-aged and old-aged patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Methods:A total of 970 patients with T2DM(585 middle-aged group and 385 old-aged group)were selected from residents of a large community in Beijing from September to December 2018.The Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSE)was used to assess the cognitive func-tion.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the related factors.Results:The detection rates of cognitive impairment were 12.0％and 13.5％in middle-aged and old-aged patients with T2DM,respectively.Among mid-dle-aged patients with T2DM,work(OR=0.22,95％CI:0.03-0.77)and education at the junior college or un-dergraduate level and above(OR=0.18,95％CI:0.04-0.55)were protective factors for cognitive impair-ment.Myocardial infarction(OR=4.13,95％CI:1.26-13.63)was a risk factor for cognitive impairment.Among old-aged patients with T2DM,drinking tea 1-2 times a week(OR=0.11,95％CI:0.01-0.58)and education at the junior college or undergraduate level and above(OR=0.19,95％CI:0.05-0.54)were protective factors for cognitive impairment.Stroke(OR=3.64,95％CI:1.55-8.39)and good sleep self-assessment(OR=2.75,95％CI:1.13-7.35)were risk factors for cognitive impairment.Conclusion:Cognitive impairment in middle-aged pa-tients with T2DM is related to work,education level and myocardial infarction,and cognitive impairment in old-aged patients with T2DM is related to lifestyle,education level and stroke.