Objective To elucidate the independent risk factors for AF in elderly patients with HF,develop a nomogram prediction model,and assess its predictive value for AF in elderly HF pa-tients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 299 patients of first HF hospitalization in Hengshui People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2023,and based on the presence or absence of AF,they were divided into an AF group(133 cases)and a non-AF group(166 cases).The patients admitted from June 2019 to December 2022 were assigned into a modeling cohort(206 cases),while those from January 2023 to December 2023 into a validation cohort(93 cases).The general data were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the modeling cohort to identify the independent predictors of AF in elderly HF patients,and a nomo-gram prediction model was constructed.ROC curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve analyses were applied to evaluate the discrimination,calibration and clinical practicability of the prediction model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the etiology of HF(CHD vs HP,OR=0.610,95％CI:0.301-1.250,P=0.178;CMD vs HP,OR=0.213,95％CI:0.052-0.883,P=0.033),LAD(OR=1.081,95％CI:1.020-1.152,P=0.015),HF classifi-cation(HFmrEF vs HFrEF,OR=5.897,95％CI:2.448-14.201,P=0.000;HFpEF vs HFrEF,OR=7.211,95％CI:2.522-20.640,P=0.001),pre-albumin(PALB)(OR=0.438,95％CI:0.217-0.901,P=0.030),UAC(OR=2.186,95％CI:1.075-4.430,P=0.025),and direct biliru-bin(DBi)(OR=4.531,95％CI:2.052-9.990,P=0.000)were independent risk factors for AF in the elderly HF patients.ROC curve analysis showed the AUC value of the prediction model based on these factors in the modeling cohort was 0.831,and the AUC value in the validation cohort was 0.840.Decision curve analysis indicated that the model possessed clinical practicability within a probability threshold range of 10％-82％for the modeling cohort and 12％-100％for the vali-dation cohort.Conclusion Our nomogram prediction model based on multivariate logistic regres-sion analysis exhibits good predictive value for the occurrence of AF in elderly HF patients,and can facilitate clinical decision-making on diagnosis and treatment.

Objective To elucidate the independent risk factors for AF in elderly patients with HF,develop a nomogram prediction model,and assess its predictive value for AF in elderly HF pa-tients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 299 patients of first HF hospitalization in Hengshui People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2023,and based on the presence or absence of AF,they were divided into an AF group(133 cases)and a non-AF group(166 cases).The patients admitted from June 2019 to December 2022 were assigned into a modeling cohort(206 cases),while those from January 2023 to December 2023 into a validation cohort(93 cases).The general data were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the modeling cohort to identify the independent predictors of AF in elderly HF patients,and a nomo-gram prediction model was constructed.ROC curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve analyses were applied to evaluate the discrimination,calibration and clinical practicability of the prediction model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the etiology of HF(CHD vs HP,OR=0.610,95％CI:0.301-1.250,P=0.178;CMD vs HP,OR=0.213,95％CI:0.052-0.883,P=0.033),LAD(OR=1.081,95％CI:1.020-1.152,P=0.015),HF classifi-cation(HFmrEF vs HFrEF,OR=5.897,95％CI:2.448-14.201,P=0.000;HFpEF vs HFrEF,OR=7.211,95％CI:2.522-20.640,P=0.001),pre-albumin(PALB)(OR=0.438,95％CI:0.217-0.901,P=0.030),UAC(OR=2.186,95％CI:1.075-4.430,P=0.025),and direct biliru-bin(DBi)(OR=4.531,95％CI:2.052-9.990,P=0.000)were independent risk factors for AF in the elderly HF patients.ROC curve analysis showed the AUC value of the prediction model based on these factors in the modeling cohort was 0.831,and the AUC value in the validation cohort was 0.840.Decision curve analysis indicated that the model possessed clinical practicability within a probability threshold range of 10％-82％for the modeling cohort and 12％-100％for the vali-dation cohort.Conclusion Our nomogram prediction model based on multivariate logistic regres-sion analysis exhibits good predictive value for the occurrence of AF in elderly HF patients,and can facilitate clinical decision-making on diagnosis and treatment.

Objective To investigate the clinical significance and serum changes of asprosin(ASP)levels in patients with essential hypertension and early renal damage.Methods According to urinary albumin/creatinine ratio(UACR),160 patients with essential hypertension were divided into the simple hypertension group(78 cases)and the early renal damage group(82 cases).Another 60 healthy subjects were selected as the control group.The differences of serum ASP,interleukin-6(IL-6)and UACR levels were compared between groups.The correlation between ASP and blood pressure,IL-6 and UACR was analyzed.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors influencing early renal damage in essential hypertension.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the predictive value of each index for early renal injury.Results The serum levels of ASP,IL-6 and UACR were higher in the early renal damage group than those in the control group and the simple hypertension group(all P＜0.05).The serum levels of ASP and IL-6 showed an increasing trend with the increase of blood pressure.ASP was positively correlated with systolic blood pressure(SBP),diastolic blood pressure(DBP)and IL-6 levels in patients with essential hypertension(all P＜0.05).Serum ASP was positively correlated with SBP,UACR and IL-6 levels in essential hypertension patients(P＜0.05),and serum ASP was positively correlated with UACR and IL-6 levels in the early renal damage group(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that higher levels of SBP,ASP and IL-6 were independent risk factors for early renal damage.ROC curve showed that ASP had the largest area under the curve(AUC)of 0.972(95%CI:0.950-0.993).The AUC of combined detection of ASP+IL-6+SBP was 0.986(95%CI:0.972-0.999).Conclusion The increased serum ASP level in patients with early renal damage in essential hypertension is a good predictor of early renal damage.The combined detection of ASP+IL-6+SBP is better than single detection.