1.Development and Validation of a Clinically Actionable Prediction Model for Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Cardiac Surgery: A Focus on Modifiable Risk Factors
Ruoxi LI ; Meice TIAN ; Chuangshi WANG ; Yujia HUANG ; Weinan CHEN ; Ya SONG ; Bomiao LIU ; Liu DU ; Xue FENG
Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine 2026;50(1):50-61
Objective:
To develop and validate a clinically actionable prediction model for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in cardiac surgery patients, focusing on modifiable preoperative risk factors amenable to targeted optimization.
Methods:
In this prospective observational cohort study, 492 adults undergoing open-chest cardiac surgery between August 15, 2023 and December 31, 2023 were analyzed. Prespecified predictors included gas exchange variables, pulmonary function, inspiratory muscle strength, and physical performance. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to develop the prediction model. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
A total of 90 patients (14.1%) developed PPCs after surgery. Five independent predictors were identified: elevated arterial PaCO2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00–1.26), oxygen desaturation (SpO2<93%) (OR 12.47, 95% CI 3.51–48.13), reduced gait speed (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04–0.71), lower FEV1/FVC ratio (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–1.00), and diminished inspiratory muscle strength (MIP % predicted) (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.99). The model demonstrated good discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) in the training cohort and 0.87 (95% CI 0.74–0.93) in the validation cohort.
Conclusion
This parsimonious model achieved high predictive accuracy using five modifiable physiological variables. By targeting abnormalities in gas exchange, pulmonary mechanics, muscle strength, and functional reserve, the model offers a practical tool to guide individualized prehabilitation strategies for reducing PPC risk in cardiac surgery patients.
2.Risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients and construction of a nomogram model
Huijuan SHAO ; Shini HAN ; Aiping ZHANG ; Yuling ZHANG ; Ting LI ; Ya HAN ; Jiucong ZHANG ; Wenshan DOU ; Xiuxia WANG ; Hongwei DU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(8):1845-1856
ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients, to construct a clinical predictive model, and to provide a reference for predicting rebleeding in the early stage, reducing the incidence rate of rebleeding, and improving the clinical outcome of patients. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 194 liver cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal variceal bleeding who received initial endoscopic therapy at Department of Gastroenterology, The Second People’s Hospital of Lanzhou, from January 1, 2021 to May 31, 2025. According to whether rebleeding occurred within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, the patients were divided into rebleeding group and non-rebleeding group. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The patients enrolled were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. In the training set, the Lasso regression analysis was used to obtain optimal predictive variables, and the factors that might affect prognosis were included in the univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses to identify independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients, which were used to construct a nomogram model. In both the training set and the validation set, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve were used to assess the discriminatory ability and calibration of the model, and decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve were used to assess the clinical practicability of the model. ResultsAmong the 194 liver cirrhosis patients with esophageal and gastric varices, 116 (59.79%) experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, with 76 patients in the training set and 40 patients in the validation set. In the training set, the Lasso regression analysis and the univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses showed that etiology of liver cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR]=3.540, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.520 — 7.150, P<0.001), Child-Pugh class (OR=3.560, 95%CI: 1.380 — 9.500, P=0.019), severity of esophageal and gastric varices (OR=8.190, 95%CI: 3.568 — 17.850, P=0.026), and main portal vein diameter (OR=2.954, 95%CI: 1.349 — 15.030, P=0.044) were independent predictive factors for rebleeding of esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients. A nomogram model was constructed based on the above independent predictive factors. The ROC curve analysis showed that this model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.845 (95%CI: 0.778 — 0.912) in the training set and 0.801 (95%CI: 0.798 — 0.868) in the validation set. The model had an index of concordance of 0.832 in the training set and 0.820 in the validation set, suggesting that the model had a good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed P values of 0.320 and 0.550 in the training set and validation set, respectively, the calibration curve indicated that the predicted probabilities of the nomogram model were in good concordance with the actual observed probabilities, suggesting that the model had good calibration. The decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve showed that the model had good clinical utility. ConclusionThe nomogram model based on etiology of liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class, severity of esophageal and gastric varices, and main portal vein diameter has a certain clinical value in predicting the risk of rebleeding from esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis.
3.Pathogenesis of precancerous lesions of gastric cancer and treatment mechanism of Weifuchun Capsules via NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling pathway.
Yu-Jia DU ; Ya-di REN ; Yan ZHUANG ; En-Ze LI ; Jun-Hao MIAO ; Chun-Yue YU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1236-1246
This study aims to investigate the pathogenesis of precancerous lesions of gastric cancer(PLGC) and explore the potential molecular mechanism of Weifuchun Capsules(WFC) in treating PLGC via the nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB)/NOD-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3) inflammasome signaling pathway. Ninety male SPF-grade Wistar rats were randomized into a normal feeding group and a modeling group. The normal feeding group received a regular diet, while the modeling group was subjected to the disease-syndrome combined modeling of PLGC. Specifically, the rats had free access to the water containing 120 μg·mL~(-1) N-methyl-N'-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine(MNNG) and received a diet containing 0.05% ranitidine in an irregular feeding pattern(alternations between fasting and overfeeding). After 15 weeks, the rats in the normal feeding group were randomized into control, control-NF-κB activator betulinic acid(C-BA), and control-NF-κB inhibitor pyrrolidine dithiocarbamaten(C-PDTC) groups. Meanwhile, the rats in the modeling group continuously underwent the modeling procedure and were randomized into model, WFC, model-NF-κB activator(M-BA), and model-NF-κB inhibitor(M-PDTC) groups. The model group and control group were given aseptic water by intragastric administration, once a day. WFC was given at a dose(432 mg·kg~(-1)) 6 times the equivalent dose for adults(body weight: 60 kg) by gavage, once a day. The rats in the C-BA and M-BA groups were administrated with BA by intraperitoneal injection at a dose of 10 mg·kg~(-1), twice a week. The rats in the C-PDTC and M-PDTC groups were administrated with PDTC by intraperitoneal injection at a dose of 50 mg·kg~(-1), twice a week. The interventions were carried out for 4 weeks. Histopathological changes of the gastric mucosa were observed and scored by hematoxylin-eosin(HE) and alcian blue-periodic acid Sthiff(AB-PAS) staining. The levels of inflammatory cytokines including interleukin(IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-18, tumor necrosis factor-alpha(TNF-α), and IL-10 in the gastric tissue were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). The expression levels of proteins associated with the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome in the gastric mucosa were determined by Western blot. The positive expression areas of proteins related to NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome in the gastric mucosa were measured by immunohistochemistry. The results showed that compared with the control group, the model, C-BA, and M-BA groups showed significantly risen scores of mucosal inflammation, degree of inflammatory activity, gland atrophy, and intestinal metaplasia, and the model and M-BA groups showed significanly risen scores of dysplasia. Compared with the model group, the WFC group demonstrated significantly declined scores of mucosal inflammation and degree of inflammatory activity, as well as declined scores of intestinal metaplasia and dysplasia. Compared with the control group, the model and C-BA groups showed significantly elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-18, and TNF-α in the gastric tissue, and the model group showed significantly elevated level of IL-10. In addition, the model and C-BA groups showed significantly up-regulated expression of NF-κB p65, NLRP3, cysteine-aspartic acid protease 1(caspase-1), and apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD(ASC) in the gastric mucosa and increased positive expression areas of NF-κB p65, NLRP3, and ASC. Compared with the model group, the WFC group showed significantly decreased levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-18, TNF-α, and IL-10 in the gastric tissue, and the M-PDTC group showed significantly lowered levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α in the gastric mucosa. Both WFC and M-PDTC groups demonstrated significantly down-regulated expression levels of NF-κB p65, phosphorylated NF-κB p65(p-NF-κB p65), NLRP3, and caspase-1 in the gastric mucosa, along with significant decreases in the positive expression areas of NF-κB p65, NLRP3, and ASC. In conclusion, the pathogenesis of PLGC is closely related to the activation of the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling pathway. WFC can alleviate mucosal inflammation, inhibit glandular atrophy, partially reverse intestinal metaplasia, and reduce dysplasia to delay the process of inflammation-cancer transformation, and meanwhile it can effectively lower the levels of inflammatory cytokines and down-regulate the expression of pathway-related proteins in the stomach. Therefore, WFC may treat PLGC by inhibiting the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling pathway.
Animals
;
Male
;
NF-kappa B/genetics*
;
Rats
;
Rats, Wistar
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/metabolism*
;
Stomach Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Inflammasomes/genetics*
;
Humans
;
Precancerous Conditions/metabolism*
;
Capsules
4.Clinical characteristics of clinical and subclinical Cushing's syndrome caused by primary bilateral macronodular adrenal hyperplasia
Huai-Jin XU ; Bing LI ; Kang CHEN ; Hui-Xin ZHOU ; Ya-Jing WANG ; Li ZANG ; Xian-Ling WANG ; Yu CHENG ; Jin DU ; Qing-Hua GUO ; Wei-Jun GU ; Zhao-Hui LYU ; Jian-Ming BA ; Jing-Tao DOU ; Yi-Ming MU
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(7):800-807
Objective To investigate the clinical characteristics of patients with clinical and subclinical Cushing's syndrome caused by primary bilateral macronodular adrenal hyperplasia(PBMAH).Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 198 patients with Cushing's syndrome caused by PBMAH diagnosed in the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2004 to October 2024.According to clinical manifestations,the patients were classified into clinical type Cushing's syndrome(n=61)and subclinical type Cushing's syndrome(n=137),and the clinical characteristics of the two types were compared.Results The mean age at diagnosis of patients with PBMAH-induced Cushing's syndrome was(53.5±10.4)years,including 118 males and 80 females,with a male-to-female ratio of 1.475:1.Compared with the subclinical type,the clinical type had a higher proportion of females,higher levels of serum cortisol,24-hour urine free cortisol(24 h UFC),and inhibited serum cortisol after low-dose dexamethasone suppression.Additionally,the clinical type had lower plasma ACTH,larger adrenal nodules and a higher risk of surgery(P<0.05)compared with those in subclinical type.The incidences of hypertension,dyslipidemia,obesity,diabetes mellitus,hypokalemia,vitamin D deficiency,osteoporosis,coronary heart disease,and cerebrovascular disease in patients with Cushing's syndrome caused by PBMAH were 87.9%,50.5%,37.1%,36.9%,27.8%,25.9%,18.7%,18.7%and 12.1%,respectively.Among them,compared with subclinical type patients,clinical type patients had higher incidence of hypokalaemia,vitamin D deficiency and osteoporosis(P<0.05),while there were no statistically significant differences in the incidences of other comorbidities between the two types(P>0.05).The results of postoperative follow-up for PBMAH patients showed that the short-term biochemical remission rate of unilateral total adrenalectomy was 41.5%(22/53)and the long-term biochemical remission rate was 32.0%(8/25).The short-term biochemical remission rate of unilateral partial(or nodular)adrenalectomy was 52.9%(9/17),and the long-term biochemical remission rate was 14.3%(1/7).All patients who underwent unilateral total adrenalectomy plus contralateral partial resection developed adrenal insufficiency(3/3),and 1 patient(1/3)relapsed 3.4 years after surgery.Conclusion Clinical and subclinical types of Cushing's syndrome caused by PBMAH have their distinct clinical characteristics.Surgery is an effective treatment for PBMAH,but a certain proportion of patients fail to achieve biochemical remission after non-bilateral total adrenalectomy.
5.Application and research progress of artificial intelligence in the assessment of subsolid nodules
Fei LI ; Zhen BAI ; Jin-Long LIU ; Dan-Yang SU ; Shen-Yu YANG ; Yuan-Bo MA ; Ya-Man LI ; Yu-Fang DU ; Xiao-Peng YANG
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1243-1249
Lung cancer has the highest incidence and mortality among malignant tumors in China.Persistent subsolid nodules(SSNs)are closely associated with early-stage lung adenocarcinoma.Artificial intelligence(AI),as an emerging technology,is capable of performing in-depth analysis of large-scale imaging data through autonomous learning and possesses the ability to predict outcomes from new data,demonstrating great potential and application prospects in the assessment of SSNs.AI can not only effectively assist radiologists in diagnosis and treatment,but also improve work efficiency while reducing misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis rates.This review summarizes the recent applications and research progress of AI in the assessment of SSNs,to provide new insights for the diagnosis and treatment of SSNs.
6.Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of pertussis in Baoshan District, Shanghai, 2017‒2024
Peipei DU ; Yuan NAN ; Qi ZHU ; Xiaojun LI ; Ya GAO ; Yang MENG ; Fan HE ; Lin LI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(12):976-980
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of pertussis in Baoshan District, Shanghai from 2017 to 2024, so as to provide an evidence-based reference for optimizing prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on pertussis cases were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, Shanghai Integrated Management and Immunization Service Information System, and follow-up epidemiological investigations. Descriptive epidemiological analyses were performed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics, clinical manifestations, and vaccine effectiveness. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine the temporal trends in incidence rates, and a Poisson model was constructed for spatiotemporal scan analyses. ResultsA total of 1 634 pertussis cases were reported in Baoshan District from 2017 to 2024, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.08∶1. More cases were observed in males than in females, with the age ranged from 20 days to 81 years. Among them, 59.92% were in the 6‒<11 years age group, and 63.34% were students. Low-level sporadic incidence persisted during 2017‒2023, followed by a sharp increase in 2024 (71.37/100 000). Starting in January 2024, the incidence rate showed an upward trend, peaking in May before declining. The majority of cases occurred between April and June. The trend in reported pertussis incidence rates in Baoshan District from 2017 to 2023 showed no statistically significant change (APC=10.039%, t=2.586, P=0.150). Incidence rate rose from January 2024, peaked in May (APC=133.641%, t=3.841, P=0.006), then declined significantly (APC=-47.816%, t=2.586, P<0.001). The 12 subdistricts of Baoshan District were divided into low, medium, and high population density areas, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 6.09/100 000, 8.19/100 000 and 11.96/100 000, respectively. The reported incidence rate increased with an increase in population density. Spatiotemporal scan analyses showed that cases clustered in the southwest and northeast of Baoshan District. Epidemiological follow-up investigations of 1 520 cases revealed that the main clinical symptoms were cough (97.63%) and sputum production (41.58%), and 98.13% of the cases were confirmed by positive nucleic-acid test results. Among the 1 475 cases with immunization records, 83.53% had completed the four-dose pertussis vaccine before onset. The complication incidence rates, from high to low, were in the 0-dose vaccination group, 1‒3-dose vaccination group and 4-dose vaccination group. The duration of cough, from long to short, was observed in the the 0-dose vaccination group, 1‒3-dose vaccination group and 4-dose vaccination group, correspondingly. ConclusionIt is recommended to improve the pertussis surveillance system in medical institutions and establish an active monitoring network, prioritizing deployment in school settings and areas with high population density. Enhancing diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination coverage among 6-year-old children and further optimizing the pertussis immunization strategies are essential to prevent and reduce the risk of pertussis among school-aged children.
7.Antithrombotic effect in zebrafish of a fibrinolytic protein EPF3 from Dilong (Pheretima vulgaris Chen) and its transport mechanism in Caco-2 monolayer through cell bypass pathway.
Wan-Ling ZHONG ; Jian-Qiong YANG ; Hai LIU ; Ya-Li WU ; Hui-Juan SHEN ; Peng-Yue LI ; Shou-Ying DU
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(4):415-428
OBJECTIVE:
EPF3 is a fibrinolysin monomer isolated and purified from Pheretima vulgaris Chen, an earthworm used in traditional Chinese medicine as Dilong for treating blood stasis syndrome. Its composition, anticoagulant and fibrinolytic activities, and relevant mechanisms have been confirmed through in vitro experiments. However, whether it has antithrombotic effects in vivo and can be absorbed by the gastrointestinal tract is unknown. This study evaluates the antithrombotic effect in zebrafish and investigates the gastrointestinal stability and intestinal absorption mechanism of this protein in vitro.
METHODS:
The antithrombotic effect of EPF3 in vivo was verified using the zebrafish thrombus model induced by arachidonic acid and FeCl3. Then, the protein bands of EPF3 incubated with simulated gastric fluid (SGF), simulated intestinal fluid (SIF), and homogenate of Caco-2 cells (HC2C) were analyzed by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis to evaluate its gastrointestinal stability. Finally, the transport behavior and absorption mechanism of EPF3 were studied using Caco-2 cell monolayer.
RESULTS:
EPF3 could significantly enhance the returned blood volume and blood flow velocity in zebrafish with platelet aggregation thrombus induced by arachidonic acid. It could also prolong the formation time of tail artery thrombus and increase the blood flow velocity in zebrafish with vessel injury thrombus induced by FeCl3. EPF3 was stable in SIF and HC2C and unstable in SGF. The permeability of EPF3 in Caco-2 monolayer was time-dependent and concentration-dependent. The efflux ratio was less than 1.2 during transport, and the transport behavior was not affected by inhibitors. EPF3 could reversibly reduce the expression of tight junction-related proteins, including zonula occludens-1, occludin, and claudin-1 in Caco-2 cells.
CONCLUSION
EPF3 could play a thrombolytic and antithrombotic role in zebrafish. It could be transported and absorbed into the intestine through cellular bypass pathway by opening the intestinal epithelium tight junction. This study provides a scientific explanation for the antithrombotic effect of earthworm and provides a basis for the feasibility of subsequent development of EPF3 as an antithrombotic enteric-soluble preparation. Please cite this article as: Zhong WL, Yang JQ, Liu H, Wu YL, Shen HJ, Li PY, Du SY. Antithrombotic effect in zebrafish of a fibrinolytic protein EPF3 from Dilong (Pheretima vulgaris Chen) and its transport mechanism in Caco-2 monolayer through cell bypass pathway. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(4): 415-428.
Animals
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Zebrafish
;
Humans
;
Caco-2 Cells
;
Fibrinolytic Agents/pharmacology*
;
Thrombosis/drug therapy*
;
Intestinal Absorption
8.Impact of Laboratory Analytical Indicators on Positive Blood Culture Detection Rates: A Single Center Study.
Di WANG ; Ling Li LIU ; Rui Rui MA ; Li Jun DU ; Gui Xue CHENG ; Ya Li LIU ; Qiao Lian YI ; Ying Chun XU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(3):303-312
OBJECTIVE:
Blood culture remains the gold standard for diagnosing bloodstream infections. Clinical laboratories must ensure the quality of blood culture processes from receipt to obtaining definitive results. We examined laboratory analytical indicators associated with positive blood culture results.
METHODS:
Blood cultures collected from Peking Union Medical College Hospital between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2022, were retrospectively analyzed. The mode of transportation (piping logistics delivery vs. staff), source of blood cultures (outpatient/emergency department vs. inpatient department), rotation of personnel, and time of reception (8:00-19:59 vs. 20:00-07:59) were compared between blood culture-positive and -negative results.
RESULTS:
Between 2020 and 2022, the total positive rate of blood culture was 8.07%. The positive rate of blood cultures in the outpatient/emergency department was significantly higher than that in the inpatient department (12.46% vs. 5.83%; P < 0.0001). The time-to-detection of blood cultures was significantly affected by the delivery mode and personnel rotation. The blood culture positive rate of the total pre-analytical time within 1 h was significantly higher than that within 1-2 h or > 2 h ( P < 0.0170).
CONCLUSION
Laboratory analytical indicators such as patient source, transportation mode, and personnel rotation significantly impacted the positive detection rate or time of blood culture.
Blood Culture/statistics & numerical data*
;
Humans
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data*
9.Occupational Hazard Factors and the Trajectory of Fasting Blood Glucose Changes in Chinese Male Steelworkers Based on Environmental Risk Scores: A Prospective Cohort Study.
Ming Xia ZOU ; Wei DU ; Qin KANG ; Yu Hao XIA ; Nuo Yun ZHANG ; Liu FENG ; Fei Yue LI ; Tian Cheng MA ; Ya Jing BAO ; Hong Min FAN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(6):666-677
OBJECTIVE:
We aimed to investigate the patterns of fasting blood glucose (FBG) trajectories and analyze the relationship between various occupational hazard factors and FBG trajectories in male steelworkers.
METHODS:
The study cohort included 3,728 workers who met the selection criteria for the Tanggang Occupational Cohort (TGOC) between 2017 and 2022. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify the FBG trajectories. Environmental risk scores (ERS) were constructed using regression coefficients from the occupational hazard model as weights. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the effects of occupational hazard factors using the ERS on FBG trajectories.
RESULTS:
FBG trajectories were categorized into three groups. An association was observed between high temperature, noise exposure, and FBG trajectory ( P < 0.05). Using the first quartile group of ERS1 as a reference, the fourth quartile group of ERS1 had an increased risk of medium and high FBG by 1.90 and 2.21 times, respectively (odds ratio [ OR] = 1.90, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.17-3.10; OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.09-4.45).
CONCLUSION
An association was observed between occupational hazards based on ERS and FBG trajectories. The risk of FBG trajectory levels increase with an increase in ERS.
Humans
;
Male
;
Adult
;
Blood Glucose/analysis*
;
China
;
Prospective Studies
;
Occupational Exposure/adverse effects*
;
Risk Factors
;
Middle Aged
;
Steel
;
Fasting/blood*
;
Metal Workers
;
East Asian People
10.Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause Mortality and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural China: 10-Year Follow-up of a Population-Based Multicenter Prospective Study.
Juan Juan HUANG ; Yuan Zhi DI ; Ling Yu SHEN ; Jian Guo LIANG ; Jiang DU ; Xue Fang CAO ; Wei Tao DUAN ; Ai Wei HE ; Jun LIANG ; Li Mei ZHU ; Zi Sen LIU ; Fang LIU ; Shu Min YANG ; Zu Hui XU ; Cheng CHEN ; Bin ZHANG ; Jiao Xia YAN ; Yan Chun LIANG ; Rong LIU ; Tao ZHU ; Hong Zhi LI ; Fei SHEN ; Bo Xuan FENG ; Yi Jun HE ; Zi Han LI ; Ya Qi ZHAO ; Tong Lei GUO ; Li Qiong BAI ; Wei LU ; Qi JIN ; Lei GAO ; He Nan XIN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1179-1193
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality based on the 10-year population-based multicenter prospective study.
METHODS:
A general population-based multicenter prospective study was conducted at four sites in rural China between 2013 and 2023. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to assess the association between BMI and mortality. Stratified analyses were performed based on the individual characteristics of the participants.
RESULTS:
Overall, 19,107 participants with a sum of 163,095 person-years were included and 1,910 participants died. The underweight (< 18.5 kg/m 2) presented an increase in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [ aHR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.66-2.41), while overweight (≥ 24.0 to < 28.0 kg/m 2) and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m 2) presented a decrease with an aHR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37-0.70), respectively. Overweight ( aHR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) and mild obesity ( aHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59-0.87) had a positive impact on mortality in people older than 60 years. All-cause mortality decreased rapidly until reaching a BMI of 25.7 kg/m 2 ( aHR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and increased slightly above that value, indicating a U-shaped association. The beneficial impact of being overweight on mortality was robust in most subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study provides additional evidence that overweight and mild obesity may be inversely related to the risk of death in individuals older than 60 years. Therefore, it is essential to consider age differences when formulating health and weight management strategies.
Humans
;
Body Mass Index
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Adult
;
Mortality
;
Cause of Death
;
Obesity/mortality*
;
Overweight/mortality*

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