1.Development and evaluation of nomogram prediction model for refractory chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting
Bo SUN ; Shufang LI ; Xun LIU ; Lu CHEN ; Erfeng ZHANG ; Huipin WANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(9):1105-1110
OBJECTIVE To construct and evaluate nomogram prediction model for refractory chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV). METHODS The data of malignant tumor patients who received chemotherapy at the Third People’s Hospital of Zhengzhou from January 2017 to December 2023 were collected. These patients were categorized into the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group according to the occurrence of refractory CINV. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was employed to screen predictive factors for refractory CINV and constructing a nomogram prediction model. Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Model calibration was evaluated using Bootstrap resampling. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical net benefit of three strategies under different risk thresholds. Clinical impact curves were utilized to assess the clinical value of the model at different risk thresholds. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis was performed to evaluate individual factor contributions to the predictive model. RESULTS A total of 388 patients were included, with 219 experiencing refractory CINV. Multivariate Logistic regression identified 11 predictive factors for refractory CINV, including gastrointestinal disease history, anticipated nausea and vomiting, chemotherapy-induced emetic risk classification, and electrolyte levels, etc. The model’s area under the curve was 0.80 [95% confidence interval (0.76, 0.84)], with a mean error of 0.036. DCA demonstrated the prediction model had higher clinical net benefit when the risk threshold was between 0.05 and 0.85. SHAP analysis revealed the top three predictive factors as gastrointestinal disease history (0.924), chemotherapy- induced emetic risk classification (0.866), and electrolyte levels (0.581). CONCLUSIONS Eleven factors, including gastrointestinal disease history, anticipated nausea and vomiting, chemotherapy-induced emetic risk classification, and electrolyte levels, are identified as predictors of refractory CINV. The model based on these factors has good predictive ability, which can be used to predict the risk of refractory CINV.
2.Investigation and Trend Prediction of Disease Burden of Hypertensionin the Elderly Population Globally and in China from 1990 to 2021
Xiaoxiao ZHAO ; Xiaohui LU ; Lixin KE ; Wulin GAO ; Xiangran MENG ; Lili REN ; Yunhan DING ; Qiang ZHANG ; Yangqin XUN ; Jibiao WU ; Cuncun LU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(3):647-658
To analyze the disease burden of hypertension in the elderly population from 1990 to 2021 and to predict future trends in China and globally, thereby providing insights for public health decision-making regarding older adults with hypertension in China. Data on hypertension-related deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for individuals aged ≥60 years was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)2021 database for the world, China, and five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates for hypertension in the elderly population were calculated, and Joinpoint regression was used to assess trend changes of disease burden, with results reported as average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted based on age and sex. The relative impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes on disease burden was analyzed using a three-factor decomposition method. Future projections for the disease burden from 2022 to 2040 were performed using a Bayesian model. From 1990 to 2021, both age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates for hypertension in the elderly population demonstrated a significant downward trend globally and in China (both AAPC values were negative, all Although age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates for hypertension among the elderly in China have shown a downward trend over the past three decades, the absolute burden remains substantial. There is an urgent need for the formulation and implementation of more effective public health policies and clinical interventions to address this critical public health challenge.
3.Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and its influencing factors in Hubei Province based on the geographically weighted regression model
Xingxing LU ; Xun LIU ; Fan WANG ; Jianjun YE ; Yu ZHANG ; Chengfeng YANG ; Liping ZHOU ; Hongxing WANG ; Wenqian ZHOU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(5):28-31
Objective To study the spatial distribution of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hubei Province and its influencing factors, so as to improve the theoretical basis for scientific development of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the future. Methods The data of reported incidence of tuberculosis and related influencing factors in various counties and districts of Hubei Province in 2020 were collected. Global Moran's I index, hotspot analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model analysis were used to calculate the spatial autocorrelation of the incidence of tuberculosis, and to analyze the influencing factors affecting the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Results There were obvious regional differences in the space distribution of the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Hot spot analysis showed positive spatial correlation and obvious clustering. The GWR model (AICc=784.251) in this study had higher AICc value compared to the ordinary least squares regression (OLS) model (AICc=804.2585). The GWR model showed that the increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and above and the proportion of the ethnic minority population had a significant promoting effect on the increase of the incidence rate of tuberculosis, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity. The effect of PM2.5 concentration on the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis varied in different regions, and the degree of effect was also different. Conclusion The proportion of people aged 65 and above and the proportion of ethnic minorities may significantly influence the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. The effect of PM2.5 concentration varies in different regions, so targeted measures should be formulated according to the situation in different regions.
4.Clinical features of recompensation in autoimmune hepatitis-related decompensated cirrhosis and related predictive factors
Xiaolong LU ; Lin HAN ; Huan XIE ; Lilong YAN ; Xuemei MA ; Dongyan LIU ; Xun LI ; Qingsheng LIANG ; Zhengsheng ZOU ; Caizhe GU ; Ying SUN
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(9):1808-1817
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical features and outcomes of recompensation in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH)-related decompensated cirrhosis, to identify independent predictive factors, and to construct a nomogram prediction model for the probability of recompensation. MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted among the adult patients with AIH-related decompensated cirrhosis who were admitted to The Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital from January 2015 to August 2023 (n=211). The primary endpoint was achievement of recompensation, and the secondary endpoint was liver-related death or liver transplantation. According to the outcome of the patients at the end of the follow-up, the patients were divided into the recompensation group (n=16) and the persistent decompensation group(n=150).The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data with homogeneity of variance, and the Mann-Whitney U rank sum test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data with heterogeneity of variance; the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups; the Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis; the Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to identify independent predictive factors, and a nomogram model was constructed and validated. ResultsA total of 211 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 55.0 years and a median follow-up time of 44.0 months, and female patients accounted for 87.2%. Among the 211 patients, 61 (with a cumulative proportion of 35.5%) achieved recompensation. Compared with the persistent decompensation group, the recompensation group had significantly higher white blood cell count, platelet count (PLT), total bilirubin (TBil), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bile acid, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), SMA positive rate, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and rate of use of glucocorticoids (all P0.05), as well as significantly lower age at baseline, number of complications, and death/liver transplantation rate (all P0.05). At 3 and 12 months after treatment, the recompensation group had continuous improvements in AST, TBil, INR, IgG, MELD score, and Child-Pugh score, which were significantly lower than the values in the persistent decompensation group (all P0.05), alongside with continuous increases in PLT and albumin, which were significantly higher than the values in the persistent decompensation group (P0.05). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that baseline ALT (hazard ratio [HR]=1.067, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.010 — 1.127, P=0.021), IgG (HR=0.463,95%CI:0.258 — 0.833, P=0.010), SMA positivity (HR=3.122,95%CI:1.768 — 5.515, P0.001), and glucocorticoid therapy (HR=20.651,95%CI:8.744 — 48.770, P0.001) were independent predictive factors for recompensation, and the nomogram model based on these predictive factors showed excellent predictive performance (C-index=0.87,95%CI:0.84 — 0.90). ConclusionAchieving recompensation significantly improves clinical outcomes in patients with AIH-related decompensated cirrhosis. Baseline SMA positivity, a high level of ALT, a low level of IgG, and corticosteroid therapy are independent predictive factors for recompensation. The predictive model constructed based on these factors can provide a basis for decision-making in individualized clinical management.
5.Clinical study on the effectiveness of bone acupuncture for alleviating pain and improving function in patients with degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis.
Chang-Xiao HAN ; Min-Shan FENG ; Jing-Hua GAO ; Xun-Lu YIN ; Guang-Wei LIU ; Hai-Bao WEN ; Jing LI ; Bo-Chen PENG ; Li-Guo ZHU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(2):152-156
OBJECTIVE:
To assess the effectiveness of bone acupuncture in improving pain and function in degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis (DLSS) and compare it with Jiaji acupuncture.
METHODS:
From January to December 2023, 80 DLSS patients were treated with acupuncture and divided into bone acupuncture and Jiaji acupuncture groups. Among them, 40 patients in the bone acupuncture group included 15 males and 25 females, with a mean age of (60.60±6.98) years old;anthor 40 patients in the Jiaji acupuncture group included 16 males and 24 females, with a mean age of (61.48±9.55) years old. The Roland Morris disability questionnaire(RMDQ), walking distance, visual analogue scale(VAS), and the MOS item short from health survey(SF-36) of two groups at baseline, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, and 12 weeks post-treatment were compared.
RESULTS:
Eighty patients were followed up for 3 to 5 months with an average of (3.62±0.59) months. There was no significant differences in general data and the scores before treatment between two groups(P>0.05). The RMDQ scores in both groups decreased significantly at 2, 4 and 12 weeks after treatment compared with before treatment(P<0.05), at each time point after treatment, the decrease was more significant in the bone acupuncture group than in the Jiaji acupuncture group(P<0.05). The VAS of waist and leg in both groups was significantly lower at 2, 4 and 12 weeks after treatment that before treatment(P<0.05). At all time points after treatment, the waist VAS in the bone acupuncture group was reduced more significant than in the Jiaji acupuncture group(P<0.05);there was no significant difference in leg VAS at 2 and 12 weeks after treatment between two groups(P>0.05), the improvement was more significant in the bone acupuncture group in the 4 weeks after treatment than in the Jiaji acupuncture group. The SF-36 scores in both groups were significantly higher at 2, 4, and 12 weeks after treatment than before treatment(P<0.05);the SF-36 score raised more significant in the bone acupuncture group than in the Jiaji acupunture group(P<0.05). No significant difference in the walking distance between two groups at 2 weeks after treatment(P>0.05);the walking distance in the bone acupuncture group was significantly higher than that in the Jiaji acupuncture group at 4 and 12 weeks after treatment(P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Bone-penetrating acupuncture moderately improves functional impairment, pain, and quality of life in patients with DLSS, showing better efficacy than Jiaji acupuncture.
Humans
;
Female
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Acupuncture Therapy/methods*
;
Spinal Stenosis/physiopathology*
;
Aged
;
Lumbar Vertebrae/physiopathology*
;
Pain Management
6.Causal relationship between five autoimmune diseases and intervertebral disc degeneration:a bidirectional Mendelian analysis.
Bao-Fei ZHANG ; Xun-Lu YIN ; Ze-Ling HUANG ; Shuai PEI ; Yu-Wei LI
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(8):856-866
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the potential causal relationship between intervertebral disc degeneration and certain autoimmune diseases.
METHODS:
Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of 5 autoimmune diseases were obtained from large-scale GWAS databases. Data on internal vertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) were derived from the FinnGen consortium, which included 294, 770 controls and 41, 669 cases. A two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the potential causal relationship between the 5 autoimmune diseases and IVDD. Multiple analytical methods were adopted, including MR methods such as inverse variance weighting(IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode, and simple mode. Cochran's Q test, leave-one-out analysis, and MR-Egger intercept test were conducted to assess heterogeneity, robustness, and pleiotropy. For the robustness of the results, MR-PRESSO was used to detect outliers, and MR analysis was re-conducted after removing the outliers.
RESULTS:
The MR analysis results showed that there might be a bidirectional causal relationship between ankylosing spondylitis(AS) and IVDD:AS on IVDD, OR=1.038, 95%CI (1.024, 1.053), P=0.000;and IVDD on AS, OR=2.117, 95%CI(1.065, 4.207), P=0.032. There might be a positive correlation between IVDD and rheumatoid arthritis(RA) as well as systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE):IVDD on RA, OR=1.184, 95%CI(1.071, 1.309), P=0.001;and IVDD on SLE, OR=1.678, 95%CI(1.187, 2.372), P=0.003. There was no significant correlation between ulcerative colitis(UC), autoimmune thyroiditis(ATD) and IVDD. After removing outliers by MR-PRESSO and re-conducting MR analysis, the results did not change qualitatively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust to potential sources of bias.
CONCLUSION
AS and IVDD may be risk factors for each other, and IVDD may be a potential risk factor for RA and SLE. These findings provide a basis for guiding the prevention and combined diagnosis and treatment of IVDD, AS, RA, and SLE, while the specific underlying mechanisms still require further experimental basic research.
Humans
;
Intervertebral Disc Degeneration/etiology*
;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Autoimmune Diseases/complications*
;
Genome-Wide Association Study
;
Spondylitis, Ankylosing/genetics*
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/genetics*
7.Diabetes-associated sleep fragmentation impairs liver and heart function via SIRT1-dependent epigenetic modulation of NADPH oxidase 4.
Yuanfang GUO ; Jie WANG ; Dongmei ZHANG ; Yufeng TANG ; Quanli CHENG ; Jiahao LI ; Ting GAO ; Xiaohui ZHANG ; Guangping LU ; Mingrui LIU ; Xun GUAN ; Xinyu TANG ; Junlian GU
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(3):1480-1496
Although clinical evidence suggests that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is an established major risk factor for heart failure, it remains unexplored whether sleep disorder-caused hepatic damage contributes to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Here, our findings revealed that sleep fragmentation (SF) displayed notable hepatic detrimental phenotypes, including steatosis and oxidative damage, along with significant abnormalities in cardiac structure and function. All these pathological changes persisted even after sleep recovery for 2 consecutive weeks or more, displaying memory properties. Mechanistically, persistent higher expression of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase 4 (NOX4) in the liver was the key initiator of SF-accelerated damage phenotypes. SF epigenetically controlled the acetylation of histone H3 lysine 27 (H3K27ac) enrichment at the Nox4 promoter and markedly increased Nox4 expression in liver even after sleep recovery. Moreover, fine coordination of the circadian clock and hepatic damage was strictly controlled by BMAL1-dependent Sirtuin 1 (Sirt1) transcription after circadian misalignment. Accordingly, genetic manipulation of liver-specific Nox4 or Sirt1, along with pharmacological intervention targeting NOX4 (GLX351322) or SIRT1 (Resveratrol), could effectively erase the epigenetic modification of Nox4 by reducing the H3K27ac level and ameliorate the progression of liver pathology, thereby counteracting SF-evoked sustained CVD. Collectively, our findings may pave the way for strategies to mitigate myocardial injury from persistent hepatic detrimental memory in diabetic patients.
8.Systematic review on the extracellular vesicles in reproductive medicine and gamete union.
Yutao WANG ; Honghao SUN ; Fangdie YE ; Zhiwei LI ; Zhongru FAN ; Xun FU ; Yi LU ; Jianbin BI ; Hongjun LI
Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2025;15(10):101261-101261
In this comprehensive review, we delve into the evolution of drug delivery systems in reproductive medicine with a focus on the emerging role of exosomes, a class of extracellular vesicles. Exosomes offer unique advantages in overcoming these challenges due to their inherent biocompatibility, stability, and ability to facilitate targeted delivery. This review provides a detailed examination of exosome biogenesis and their function in cellular communication, setting the stage for understanding their potential as drug delivery vehicles. We explore the mechanisms through which exosomes can be loaded with small molecule drugs and the benefits they offer over synthetic nanoparticles. The review highlights groundbreaking case studies that illustrate the successful application of exosome-mediated drug delivery in reproductive health, including enhancing fertility treatments, supporting gamete and embryo development, and facilitating maternal-fetal communication. This study aims to provide a precise understanding of how exosomal drug delivery can revolutionize treatments for reproductive health disorders, paving the way for future therapeutic applications. Lastly, we touch upon the promising therapeutic implications of exosomal delivery for proteins and genes, offering a window into future treatments for reproductive health disorders.
9.Investigation and analysis of adult skeletal fluorosis caused by drinking tea-type endemic fluorosis in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province in 2021
Guanglan PU ; Mingjun WANG ; Yanan LI ; Xin ZHOU ; Peizhen YANG ; Ping CHEN ; Qing LU ; Xun CHEN ; Hongting SHEN ; Jing MA ; Jinmei ZHANG ; Cuiling LA ; Qiang ZHANG ; Xianya MENG
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2024;43(3):207-211
Objective:To investigate the prevalence of adult skeletal fluorosis caused by drinking tea-type endemic fluorosis in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Yushu Prefecture), Qinghai Province, and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of the disease.Methods:In August 2021, one village was selected as a survey site in six counties (cities) in Yushu Prefecture, including Nangqian, Chindu, Yushu, Zadoi, Qumarlêb, and Zhiduo. Drinking water samples and 10 brick tea samples were collected from each village to determine the fluoride content in water and brick tea; at least 100 permanent residents aged ≥ 25, who had a habit of drinking brick tea and had lived in the local area for more than 5 years, were selected for X-ray imaging to examine the prevalence of adult skeletal fluorosis.Results:A total of 75 samples of residential drinking water were collected, with a fluoride content of (0.21 ± 0.05) mg/L, ranging from 0.11 to 0.34 mg/L; 60 samples of brick tea, with a fluoride content of (626.70 ± 157.27) mg/kg, ranging from 324.00 to 2 102.00 mg/kg. A total of 1 136 adults were examined, and 318 cases of skeletal fluorosis were diagnosed, with a detection rate of 27.99%. Among them, the detection rates of mild, moderate, and severe skeletal fluorosis were 20.95% (238/1 136), 6.07% (69/1 136), and 0.97% (11/1 136), respectively, with mild symptoms being the main. The detection rates of skeletal fluorosis in males and females were 29.09% (121/416) and 27.36% (197/720), respectively, with no statistically significant difference between the gender (χ 2 = 0.39, P = 0.533). Comparison of the skeletal fluorosis in different gender, the differences were statistically significant (χ 2 = 22.31, P < 0.001). The detection rates of skeletal fluorosis in the age groups of 25 - 35, 36 - 45, 46 - 55, 56 - 65, 66 - 75, and ≥76 years old were 6.86% (7/102), 22.37% (51/228), 24.02% (92/383), 37.44% (73/195), 43.48% (70/161), and 37.31% (25/67), respectively. The differences between the groups were statistically significant (χ 2 = 59.84, P < 0.001). Moreover, there was a statistically significant difference in the composition of skeletal fluorosis among different age groups ( H = 37.66, P < 0.001). The Spearman correlation analysis results showed that the severity of adult skeletal fluorosis was positively correlated with age ( r = 0.34, P < 0.001). Conclusions:There is a certain degree of prevalence of adult skeletal fluorosis in Yushu Prefecture. And as age increases, the condition of skeletal fluorosis becomes more severe.
10.Disease trajectory research in critical illness: applications, examples, and prospects
Minghui TANG ; Xun LI ; Xiulan LU
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2024;36(3):231-236
Trajectories refer to the motion paths followed by objects in space. Disease trajectories, which depict the evolution of disease processes over time, are significantly important for assessing diseases, formulating treatment strategies, and predicting prognosis. Critical illness is one of the leading causes of death. With advances in critical care medicine, there is increasing focus on the occurrence and development of critical illnesses. Understanding the development trajectory of critical illness is helpful to promote the early identification, intervention, and treatment of high-risk patients, avoid prolongation of the course of disease, reduce the risk of multiple organ failure, and provide important reference for the development of targeted prevention and intervention strategies, thereby reducing the incidence and mortality of critical illness. In recent years, various trajectory modeling methods have been applied to the study of critical illness. These include, but are not limited to, latent growth curve modeling (LGCM), growth mixture modeling (GMM), group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), latent transition analysis (LTA), and latent class analysis (LCA). The aim of this article is to review the definition of disease trajectories, the methods used in trajectory modeling, and their applications and future prospects in critical illness research.


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