1.Analysis of influencing factors and efficacy prediction of 131I in the treatment of Graves′ disease
Ziyu MA ; Xue LI ; Yan WANG ; Nan LIU ; Jian TAN ; Qiang JIA ; Zhaowei MENG ; Wei ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging 2025;45(1):24-28
Objective:To investigate the factors affecting the efficacy of 131I treatment for Graves′ disease (GD) and to construct a predictive model for the treatment outcomes of 131I therapy. Methods:Retrospective analysis of the treatment efficacy was performed on 2 190 patients (547 males, 1 643 females, age (42.9±12.4) years) with GD, who received initial 131I treatment in Tianjin Medical University General Hospital between October 2013 and May 2018. Univariate analysis ( χ2 test, et al) and logistic regression were performed to analyze the possible factors affecting the efficacy of 131I treatment. An efficacy prediction model for 131I treatment of GD was constructed, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the prediction model. Results:The overall effectiveness rate of 131I treatment for GD patients was 99.95%(2 189/2 190), with a total cure rate of 83.74%(1 834/2 190), among which 94.11%(1 726/1 834) were cured after a single treatment. Pre-treatment thyroid mass was identified as an independent risk factor affecting the efficacy of initial 131I treatment (odds ratio ( OR)=0.983(95% CI: 0.977-0.989), P<0.001). The clinical cure rate was higher in patients who received an adequate dose of 131I compared with that in patients who didn′t receive an adequate dose (79.97%(1 537/1 922) vs 70.52%(189/268); χ2=12.57, P<0.001), but it did not increase the incidence of hypothyroidism within one year. A predictive model was constructed, and it was found that thyroid mass and disease duration had a relatively high impact on the clinical cure rate. The concordance index (C-index) of the predictive model was 0.623(95% CI: 0.593-0.654). DCA indicated that the predictive model offered substantial net benefits across a wide range of probability thresholds. Conclusions:131I treatment is effective in most patients with GD. The predictive model for efficacy of initial 131I treatment developed in this study can assist in evaluating treatment outcomes and help clinicians select the most suitable 131I treatment dose, enhancing clinical decision-making.
2.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
3.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
4.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
5.Multicenter randomized controlled trial of Yiqi Huoxue formula() for the treatment of ruptured lumbar disc herniation.
Yu ZHU ; Zhi-Qiang WANG ; Shun LIN ; Ying-Ying YAO ; Xue-Qiang SHEN ; Xiao-Chun LI ; Feng YU ; Xiao-Yang XIONG ; Yi SONG ; Meng-Fei CHEN ; Peng-Fei YU ; Hong JIANG ; Jin-Tao LIU
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(11):1112-1118
OBJECTIVE:
To observe the clinical symptoms and MRI outcomes of patients with ruptured lumbar disc herniation(LDH) through a multicenter randomized controlled study, and to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Yiqi Huoxue formula() in the treatment of this disease.
METHODS:
A total of 160 outpatients and inpatients with ruptured LDH admitted to 4 medical centers from January 2023 to June 2023 were selected and randomly divided into the Yiqi Huoxue formula group and the control group, with 80 patients in each group. In the Yiqi Huoxue formula group, there were 43 males and 37 females, with an age of (41.03±9.56) years and a disease duration of (10.45±25.37) days, and the patients were treated with Yiqi Huoxue formula. In the control group, there were 34 males and 46 females, with an age of (42.14±8.73) years and a disease duration of (11.31±21.14) days;during the acute phase, patients in this group could take celecoxib capsules orally, and methylcobalamin orally at the same time. The Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score, Oswestry disability index (ODI), changes in the volume of herniated disc tissue on MRI, herniation rate, and absorption rate were recorded at the time of enrollment and during follow-ups at the 3rd, 6th, and 12th month after treatment.
RESULTS:
A total of 156 patients completed the clinical follow-up, and 4 patients withdrew midway. The clinical symptoms of all patients who completed the study were relieved to varying degrees, and reabsorption of herniated disc tissue was observed in all patients in the Yiqi Huoxue formula group after treatment. For the JOA score:in the Yiqi Huoxue formula group, it was (10.73±2.76) points before treatment and (24.65±2.19) points at the 12th month after treatment;in the control group, it was (11.01±1.20) points before treatment and (17.07±3.26) points at the 12th month after treatment. For the ODI score:in the Yiqi Huoxue formula group, it was (26.21±3.55) points before treatment and (5.65±2.19) points at the 12th month after treatment;in the control group, it was (27.92±2.51) points before treatment and (9.09±2.15) points at the 12th month after treatment. At the 12th month after treatment, the JOA and ODI scores of both groups were better than those before treatment, and the scores of the Yiqi Huoxue formula group were better than those of the control group, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). In terms of the herniated disc volume and herniation rate on MRI, the Yiqi Huoxue formula group was superior to the control group, with statistically significant differences(P<0.05). Reabsorption occurred in 56.96%(45/79) of patients in the Yiqi Huoxue formula group, which was significantly higher than the 37.66%(29/77) in the control group.
CONCLUSION
After treatment with Yiqi Huoxue formula, patients with ruptured LDH show significant improvement in clinical symptoms and a marked reduction in the volume of herniated discs. During the follow-up period, no obvious adverse drug reactions are observed in patients, and no recurrence of symptoms is found at the last follow-up, indicating that the formula has safe and reliable efficacy.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Intervertebral Disc Displacement/drug therapy*
;
Adult
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
;
Middle Aged
;
Lumbar Vertebrae
6.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
7.Discriminating Tumor Deposits From Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer: A Pilot Study Utilizing Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI
Xue-han WU ; Yu-tao QUE ; Xin-yue YANG ; Zi-qiang WEN ; Yu-ru MA ; Zhi-wen ZHANG ; Quan-meng LIU ; Wen-jie FAN ; Li DING ; Yue-jiao LANG ; Yun-zhu WU ; Jian-peng YUAN ; Shen-ping YU ; Yi-yan LIU ; Yan CHEN
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(5):400-410
Objective:
To evaluate the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) in differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) in rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 70 patients with rectal cancer, including 168 lesions (70 TDs and 98 MLNs confirmed by histopathology), who underwent pretreatment MRI and subsequent surgery between March 2019 and December 2022. The morphological characteristics of TDs and MLNs, along with quantitative parameters derived from DCE-MRI (K trans , kep, and v e) and DWI (ADCmin, ADCmax, and ADCmean), were analyzed and compared between the two groups.Multivariable binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic performance of significant individual quantitative parameters and combined parameters in distinguishing TDs from MLNs.
Results:
All morphological features, including size, shape, border, and signal intensity, as well as all DCE-MRI parameters showed significant differences between TDs and MLNs (all P < 0.05). However, ADC values did not demonstrate significant differences (all P > 0.05). Among the single quantitative parameters, v e had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.772 for distinguishing TDs from MLNs. A multivariable logistic regression model incorporating short axis, border, v e, and ADC mean improved diagnostic performance, achieving an AUC of 0.833 (P = 0.027).
Conclusion
The combination of morphological features, DCE-MRI parameters, and ADC values can effectively aid in the preoperative differentiation of TDs from MLNs in rectal cancer.
8.Predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics for the pathological complete remission of pancrea-tic cancer after total neoadjuvant therapy
Jiangkun JIA ; Miao YU ; Meng JIA ; Quan SHEN ; Jian XU ; Qiang FU ; Huanzhou XUE
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(5):642-649
Objective:To investigate the predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics for the patholo-gical complete remission (pCR) of pancreatic cancer after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT).Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 263 patients with pancreatic cancer who were admitted to Henan Provincial People′s Hospital (Zhengzhou University People's Hspital) from January 2019 to September 2024 were collected. There were 166 males and 97 females, aged (56±12)years. All patients underwent TNT. The 263 patients were randomly divided into a training set of 184 cases and a test set of 79 cases using a 7∶3 random seed count. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, and the test set was used to validate the performance of the prediction model. Observation indicators: (1) postoperative and follow-up condi-tions; (2) imaging feature selection and model construction; (3) evaluation of predictive efficacy of different radiomic models. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the survival rate and draw survival curve. The Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The perfor-mance of the prediction model for pCR after TNT was evaluated using the receiver operator charac-teristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall (P-R) curve and Bootstrap method, along with the calculation of area under the curve (AUC), precision rate, recall rate, F1-score. Results:(1) Postoperative and follow-up conditions. All 263 patients underwent surgery after TNT, with pathological examination revealing 124 cases of pCR (86 cases in the training set, 38 cases in the test set) and 139 cases of non-pCR (98 cases in the training set, 41 cases in the test set), respectively. All 263 patients were followed up for 6(range, 3-12) months after surgery, of which 15 cases (4 cases of pCR and 11 cases of non-pCR) were lost to follow-up or died due to non-tumor reasons within 6 months after surgery. The postoperative 6-month recurrence-free survival rate of 124 pCR patients and 139 non-pCR patients were 80% and 50%, respectively, showing a significant difference between the two groups of patients ( χ2=22.84, P<0.05). (2) Imaging feature selection and model construction. Construction of the traditional radiology model: based on the response evaluation criteria in solid tumors 1.1, the Logistic regression model was constructed using the relative shrinkage (D%) as a predictive variable. The AUC of traditional radiology model was 0.72 [95% confidence interval ( CI) as 0.63?0.81] in the training set and 0.75 (95% CI as 0.66?0.84) in the test set, respectively. Construction of the Delta radiomics model: 10 non-zero coefficient features were selected. The Delta radiomics models were constructed by using the regularized Logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and support vector machine algorithms through using selected features as input variables. (3) Evaluation of predictive efficacy of different radiomic models. The AUC of Delta radiomics model constructed by regularized Logistic regression algorithm in the test set for predicting pCR in pancreatic cancer after TNT was 0.90, higher than that of the random forest algorithm, gradient boosting machine algorithm, support vector machine algorithm (AUC as 0.81, 0.81, 0.83), and higher than that of the traditional radiology model (AUC as 0.72). Results of Bootstrap method revealed significant differences in the predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics model constructed by regularized Logistic regression algorithm compared to the Delta radiomics model constructed by random forest algorithm, gradient boosting machine algorithm, support vector machine algorithm and the tradi-tional radiology model (95% CI as 0.03?0.16, 0.03?0.16, 0.03?0.13, 0.08?0.29, P<0.05). The regularized Logistic regression algorithm within the Delta radiomics model demonstrated the best overall performance among the above models evaluated. Conclusion:Compared to the traditional radiology model, the Delta radiomics model offers superior efficacy in predicting pCR of pancreatic cancer after TNT, in which the regularized Logistic regression algorithm demonstrates the best overall performance metrics.
9.Predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics for the pathological complete remission of pancrea-tic cancer after total neoadjuvant therapy
Jiangkun JIA ; Miao YU ; Meng JIA ; Quan SHEN ; Jian XU ; Qiang FU ; Huanzhou XUE
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(5):642-649
Objective:To investigate the predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics for the patholo-gical complete remission (pCR) of pancreatic cancer after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT).Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 263 patients with pancreatic cancer who were admitted to Henan Provincial People′s Hospital (Zhengzhou University People's Hspital) from January 2019 to September 2024 were collected. There were 166 males and 97 females, aged (56±12)years. All patients underwent TNT. The 263 patients were randomly divided into a training set of 184 cases and a test set of 79 cases using a 7∶3 random seed count. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, and the test set was used to validate the performance of the prediction model. Observation indicators: (1) postoperative and follow-up condi-tions; (2) imaging feature selection and model construction; (3) evaluation of predictive efficacy of different radiomic models. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the survival rate and draw survival curve. The Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The perfor-mance of the prediction model for pCR after TNT was evaluated using the receiver operator charac-teristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall (P-R) curve and Bootstrap method, along with the calculation of area under the curve (AUC), precision rate, recall rate, F1-score. Results:(1) Postoperative and follow-up conditions. All 263 patients underwent surgery after TNT, with pathological examination revealing 124 cases of pCR (86 cases in the training set, 38 cases in the test set) and 139 cases of non-pCR (98 cases in the training set, 41 cases in the test set), respectively. All 263 patients were followed up for 6(range, 3-12) months after surgery, of which 15 cases (4 cases of pCR and 11 cases of non-pCR) were lost to follow-up or died due to non-tumor reasons within 6 months after surgery. The postoperative 6-month recurrence-free survival rate of 124 pCR patients and 139 non-pCR patients were 80% and 50%, respectively, showing a significant difference between the two groups of patients ( χ2=22.84, P<0.05). (2) Imaging feature selection and model construction. Construction of the traditional radiology model: based on the response evaluation criteria in solid tumors 1.1, the Logistic regression model was constructed using the relative shrinkage (D%) as a predictive variable. The AUC of traditional radiology model was 0.72 [95% confidence interval ( CI) as 0.63?0.81] in the training set and 0.75 (95% CI as 0.66?0.84) in the test set, respectively. Construction of the Delta radiomics model: 10 non-zero coefficient features were selected. The Delta radiomics models were constructed by using the regularized Logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and support vector machine algorithms through using selected features as input variables. (3) Evaluation of predictive efficacy of different radiomic models. The AUC of Delta radiomics model constructed by regularized Logistic regression algorithm in the test set for predicting pCR in pancreatic cancer after TNT was 0.90, higher than that of the random forest algorithm, gradient boosting machine algorithm, support vector machine algorithm (AUC as 0.81, 0.81, 0.83), and higher than that of the traditional radiology model (AUC as 0.72). Results of Bootstrap method revealed significant differences in the predictive efficacy of Delta radiomics model constructed by regularized Logistic regression algorithm compared to the Delta radiomics model constructed by random forest algorithm, gradient boosting machine algorithm, support vector machine algorithm and the tradi-tional radiology model (95% CI as 0.03?0.16, 0.03?0.16, 0.03?0.13, 0.08?0.29, P<0.05). The regularized Logistic regression algorithm within the Delta radiomics model demonstrated the best overall performance among the above models evaluated. Conclusion:Compared to the traditional radiology model, the Delta radiomics model offers superior efficacy in predicting pCR of pancreatic cancer after TNT, in which the regularized Logistic regression algorithm demonstrates the best overall performance metrics.
10.Analysis of influencing factors and efficacy prediction of 131I in the treatment of Graves′ disease
Ziyu MA ; Xue LI ; Yan WANG ; Nan LIU ; Jian TAN ; Qiang JIA ; Zhaowei MENG ; Wei ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging 2025;45(1):24-28
Objective:To investigate the factors affecting the efficacy of 131I treatment for Graves′ disease (GD) and to construct a predictive model for the treatment outcomes of 131I therapy. Methods:Retrospective analysis of the treatment efficacy was performed on 2 190 patients (547 males, 1 643 females, age (42.9±12.4) years) with GD, who received initial 131I treatment in Tianjin Medical University General Hospital between October 2013 and May 2018. Univariate analysis ( χ2 test, et al) and logistic regression were performed to analyze the possible factors affecting the efficacy of 131I treatment. An efficacy prediction model for 131I treatment of GD was constructed, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the prediction model. Results:The overall effectiveness rate of 131I treatment for GD patients was 99.95%(2 189/2 190), with a total cure rate of 83.74%(1 834/2 190), among which 94.11%(1 726/1 834) were cured after a single treatment. Pre-treatment thyroid mass was identified as an independent risk factor affecting the efficacy of initial 131I treatment (odds ratio ( OR)=0.983(95% CI: 0.977-0.989), P<0.001). The clinical cure rate was higher in patients who received an adequate dose of 131I compared with that in patients who didn′t receive an adequate dose (79.97%(1 537/1 922) vs 70.52%(189/268); χ2=12.57, P<0.001), but it did not increase the incidence of hypothyroidism within one year. A predictive model was constructed, and it was found that thyroid mass and disease duration had a relatively high impact on the clinical cure rate. The concordance index (C-index) of the predictive model was 0.623(95% CI: 0.593-0.654). DCA indicated that the predictive model offered substantial net benefits across a wide range of probability thresholds. Conclusions:131I treatment is effective in most patients with GD. The predictive model for efficacy of initial 131I treatment developed in this study can assist in evaluating treatment outcomes and help clinicians select the most suitable 131I treatment dose, enhancing clinical decision-making.

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