1.Risk factors for decompensated liver cirrhosis and the construction of a nomogram prediction model
Yuanyuan LIANG ; Huifang QU ; Xiyue WANG ; Yan WANG ; Hezhao ZHANG ; Jun XU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(6):1327-1334
ObjectiveTo investigate the independent risk factors for decompensation in patients with liver cirrhosis, to construct a nomogram-based risk assessment model, and to assess its risk assessment performance and clinical value by comparing it with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), and MELD 3.0 scoring system. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 514 patients with liver cirrhosis who attended The First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from January 2020 to May 2025, and related data were collected, including demographic data and laboratory markers. According to the presence or absence of decompensation, the patients were divided into compensation group with 275 patients and decompensation group with 239 patients. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis was used for screening of variables, and the multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for decompensated liver cirrhosis and construct a nomogram model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to assess the discriminatory ability, calibration, and net clinical benefit of the model. ResultsThe multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that low hemoglobin (odds ratio [OR]=0.984, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.969 — 0.999, P<0.05), low lymphocytes (OR=0.564, 95%CI: 0.383 — 0.830, P<0.05), high international normalized ratio (OR=3.131, 95%CI: 1.242 — 7.891, P<0.05), and low serum sodium (OR=0.922, 95%CI: 0.872 — 0.975, P<0.05) were independent risk factors for decompensation events in patients with liver cirrhosis. Construct the prediction model equation: Logit(P)=intercept value-0.016×hemoglobin-0.573×lymphocytes+1.141×INR-0.081×serum sodium. The nomogram constructed based on these factors had a good discriminatory ability, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.787, a specificity of 77.8%, and a sensitivity of 67.4%, and it had significantly better predictive performance than MELD score (AUC=0.718), MELD-Na score (AUC=0.719), and MELD 3.0 score (AUC=0.725). The calibration curve showed good consistency between the probability of risk assessed by the model and the observed probability. The decision curve analysis showed that compared with the MELD-based scores, this model provided higher net clinical benefit across a wide range of risk thresholds. ConclusionThis study successfully constructed and validated a nomogram risk assessment model incorporating hemoglobin, international normalized ratio, lymphocytes, and serum sodium. This model has good clinical practicability and can help to achieve early identification of high-risk patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and optimize intervention strategies in clinical practice.
2.Clinical diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of gallbladder sarcomatoid carcinoma: An analysis of 16 cases
Yashu ZHOU ; Yihui MA ; Jiaxin PEI ; Yuanyuan MENG ; Peng GUO ; Xiyue LIANG ; Taiying LU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2024;40(4):767-772
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinicopathological features, diagnosis and treatment methods, and prognosis of gallbladder sarcomatoid carcinoma (GBSC). MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 16 patients with GBSC who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2015 to April 2023, including general information, clinical manifestations, imaging features, pathological features, and treatment modality, and follow-up was performed for all patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to perform the survival analysis and plot the survival curve, and the Log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. ResultsAmong the 16 patients, there were 6 male patients and 10 female patients, with a mean age of 62.9±8.4 years. The main clinical manifestations were right upper abdominal pain in 13 patients (81.3%), nausea in 5 patients (31.3%), abdominal distension in 4 patients (25.0%), poor appetite in 3 patients (18.8%), weakness in 2 patients (12.5%), fever in 2 patients (12.5%), and jaundice in 1 patient (6.3%), and 3 patients were asymptomatic and were found to have this disease by physical examination. Of all patients, 81.3% (13/16) were in the advanced stage (stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ) at the time of initial diagnosis. Histopathological examination showed that some cancer cells were spindle-shaped under the microscope, with marked nuclear division and noticeable heteromorphism. Immunohistochemistry showed a positive expression rate of 100% (16/16) for Vimentin, AE1/AE3, and CK8/18, and Ki-67 proliferation index was highly expressed in 81.3% (13/16) of the patients (≥50%), with a median of 70% (range 20% — 90%). All 16 patients underwent surgical treatment, with radical surgery in 11 patients and palliative surgery in 5 patients, among whom 9 received R0 resection, 2 received R1 resection, and 5 received R2 resection, and 7 patients received adjuvant therapy after surgery. Effective follow-up was achieved for all 16 patients, with a follow-up time of 0.5 — 26.0 months and a median follow-up time of 11.0 months. By the end of follow-up, 2 patients survived and 14 patients died due to tumor recurrence or metastasis, with a median survival time of 10.0 months, and the 1- and 2-year cumulative survival rates after surgery were 31.3% and 8.3%, respectively. The prognostic analysis showed that TNM stage (χ2=6.727, P=0.009), surgical approach (χ2=7.508, P=0.006), margin condition (χ2=7.934, P=0.005), and adjuvant therapy (χ2=4.608, P=0.032) were associated with the prognosis of patients. ConclusionThe clinical manifestations of GBSC lack specificity, and a confirmed diagnosis relies on immunohistochemical analysis. Most patients are in the advanced disease at the time of initial diagnosis and tend to have a poor prognosis. There are currently no targeted therapies for this disease, and radical surgery with negative margins and adjuvant therapy can improve the survival rate of patients.

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