ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and economic value of the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine （TCM） Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases （abbreviated as the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol） in adult patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia （CAP） based on real-world clinical data. MethodsA retrospective real-world cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of adult patients hospitalized for non-severe CAP from September 1st， 2023 to December 31st， 2024 across 10 TCM hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were classified into an exposure group and a non-exposure group based on whether they received Chinese herbal medicine （CHM） according to the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol. The non-exposure group received only conventional western medicine， while the exposure group additionally received differentiated CHM for at least five consecutive days. Outcomes were compared between two patient groups， including cough resolution rate， sputum resolution rate （assessed by volume， color， and consistency）， incidence of abnormal C-reactive protein （CRP）， incidence of abnormal white blood cell （WBC） count， and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates on chest imaging. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors influencing clinical efficacy. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age， gender， smoking status， history of hypertension， and pneumonia severity score （CURB-65）， and the efficacy of treatment for cough and sputum was analyzed within each subgroup. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using cough resolution rate as the outcome measure， evaluating the pharmacoeconomics of the two groups. ResultsA total of 1688 patients were included with 1293 in the exposure group and 395 in the non-exposure group. Compared to the non-exposure group， the exposure group demonstrated significantly higher resolution rates of cough， sputum volume， color， and consistency， as well as a significantly lower incidence of abnormal CRP （P＜0.05）. No statistically significant difference was observed between the groups in terms of abnormal WBC count and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates （P＞0.05）. Logistic regression analysis showed that the cough resolution rate in the exposure group was 1.83 times that of the non-exposure group， while the probabilities of resolution in sputum volume， color， and consistency were 1.37， 2.09， and 1.56 times those of the non-exposure group， respectively （P＜0.05）. Subgroup analyses showed that the exposure group achieved significantly higher cough resolution rates across most subgroups except for populations with a CURB-65 score ≥2 or those with a history of hypertension （P＜0.05）. Specifically， among females， patients aged ≥18 and ＜65 years， non-smokers， those without hypertension， and those with a CURB-65 score of 0， the exposure group showed a higher cough resolution rate than the non-exposure group （P＜0.05）. From an economic perspective， total hospitalization cost， length of stay， antibiotic cost， and CHM cost all differed significantly between groups （P＜0.05）. The cost-effectiveness ratio （CER） was 10,788.80 CNY/case in the exposure group， while 22,513.80 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. This implies that， compared with the exposure group， the non-exposure group incurred an additional 17,302.27 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution. When the willingness-to-pay threshold ranged from 0 to 50,000 CNY， the probability of economic advantage was consistently higher in the exposure group than in the non-exposure group. ConclusionOn the basis of conventional western medicine， the addition of CHM in accordance with the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol can effectively improve clinical symptoms， reduce inflammatory markers， promote clinical recovery， and is more cost-effective in treating adults with non-severe CAP.

ObjectiveTo observe the real‑world effectiveness and economic outcomes of Weishi Qingjin Formula （苇石清金方， WQF） in the treatment of adult community‑acquired pneumonia （CAP） with phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome. MethodsBased on a multicenter， real-world retrospective cohort study， clinical data were collected from hospitalized adult patients diagnosed with non‑severe CAP and phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome in 10 traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were divided into an exposure group （those who received oral WQF） and a non‑exposure group （those who did not）. The following outcomes were compared between the two groups before and after treatment， which were remission rates of clinical symptoms including cough， expectoration （sputum volume， color， consistency）， and chest pain， levels of inflammatory markers including C‑reactive protein （CRP） and white blood cell count （WBC）， and the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT. Subgroup analyses were performed based on age， gender， smoking status， presence of hypertension， and the severity of community-acquired pneumonia （CURB‑65） score， comparing the two groups in terms of cough remission rate， chest pain remission rate， and chest CT absorption rate. For health economic evaluation， cost‑effectiveness analysis was used to calculate the cost‑effectiveness ratio （CER） and incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio （ICER）. Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the results. ResultsA total of 647 patients in the exposure group and 1491 patients in the non-exposure group were included in the final statistical analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in length of hospital stay， gender， marital status， smoking history， bronchoscopy history， and comorbidities between the groups （P＞0.05）， but age， CURB-65 score， and antibiotic use. The exposure group had significantly higher remission rates of cough and sputum consistency than the non-exposure group （P＜0.05）. After adjusting for confounders using propensity score matching and logistic regression， the cough remission rate in the exposure group was 1.49 times that of the non-exposure group （P＜0.01）. No significant difference was observed between groups in the reduction rates of CRP and WBC， and in the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT （P＞0.05）. Subgroup analyses revealed that the cough remission rate in the exposure group was significantly better than that in the non-exposure group except for patients aged ≥65 years， smokers， hypertensive patients， those using other type antibiotics or not using antibiotics， and those with a CURB-65 score ≥1 （P＜0.05）. Among smokers， the chest pain remission rate in the exposure group was 4.38 times that of the non-exposure group （P＜0.01）. No significant difference in chest CT absorption rate was found between groups across subgroups of gender， age， hypertension status， or antibiotic type （P＞0.05）. In terms of economic evaluation， CER was 10,877.60 CNY/case in the exposure group and 16,773.10 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. Compared to the exposure group， the non-exposure group incurred an additional 15,034.26 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution， indicating a more favorable cost-effectiveness profile. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded results consistent with the cost-effectiveness analysis， confirming the robustness of the findings. ConclusionWQF demonstrates significant efficacy in improving cough symptoms in the treatment of adult CAP with phlegm-heat obstructing the lung syndrome， and also exhibits favorable economic benefits.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and economic value of the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine （TCM） Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases （abbreviated as the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol） in adult patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia （CAP） based on real-world clinical data. MethodsA retrospective real-world cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of adult patients hospitalized for non-severe CAP from September 1st， 2023 to December 31st， 2024 across 10 TCM hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were classified into an exposure group and a non-exposure group based on whether they received Chinese herbal medicine （CHM） according to the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol. The non-exposure group received only conventional western medicine， while the exposure group additionally received differentiated CHM for at least five consecutive days. Outcomes were compared between two patient groups， including cough resolution rate， sputum resolution rate （assessed by volume， color， and consistency）， incidence of abnormal C-reactive protein （CRP）， incidence of abnormal white blood cell （WBC） count， and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates on chest imaging. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors influencing clinical efficacy. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age， gender， smoking status， history of hypertension， and pneumonia severity score （CURB-65）， and the efficacy of treatment for cough and sputum was analyzed within each subgroup. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using cough resolution rate as the outcome measure， evaluating the pharmacoeconomics of the two groups. ResultsA total of 1688 patients were included with 1293 in the exposure group and 395 in the non-exposure group. Compared to the non-exposure group， the exposure group demonstrated significantly higher resolution rates of cough， sputum volume， color， and consistency， as well as a significantly lower incidence of abnormal CRP （P＜0.05）. No statistically significant difference was observed between the groups in terms of abnormal WBC count and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates （P＞0.05）. Logistic regression analysis showed that the cough resolution rate in the exposure group was 1.83 times that of the non-exposure group， while the probabilities of resolution in sputum volume， color， and consistency were 1.37， 2.09， and 1.56 times those of the non-exposure group， respectively （P＜0.05）. Subgroup analyses showed that the exposure group achieved significantly higher cough resolution rates across most subgroups except for populations with a CURB-65 score ≥2 or those with a history of hypertension （P＜0.05）. Specifically， among females， patients aged ≥18 and ＜65 years， non-smokers， those without hypertension， and those with a CURB-65 score of 0， the exposure group showed a higher cough resolution rate than the non-exposure group （P＜0.05）. From an economic perspective， total hospitalization cost， length of stay， antibiotic cost， and CHM cost all differed significantly between groups （P＜0.05）. The cost-effectiveness ratio （CER） was 10,788.80 CNY/case in the exposure group， while 22,513.80 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. This implies that， compared with the exposure group， the non-exposure group incurred an additional 17,302.27 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution. When the willingness-to-pay threshold ranged from 0 to 50,000 CNY， the probability of economic advantage was consistently higher in the exposure group than in the non-exposure group. ConclusionOn the basis of conventional western medicine， the addition of CHM in accordance with the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol can effectively improve clinical symptoms， reduce inflammatory markers， promote clinical recovery， and is more cost-effective in treating adults with non-severe CAP.

ObjectiveTo observe the real‑world effectiveness and economic outcomes of Weishi Qingjin Formula （苇石清金方， WQF） in the treatment of adult community‑acquired pneumonia （CAP） with phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome. MethodsBased on a multicenter， real-world retrospective cohort study， clinical data were collected from hospitalized adult patients diagnosed with non‑severe CAP and phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome in 10 traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were divided into an exposure group （those who received oral WQF） and a non‑exposure group （those who did not）. The following outcomes were compared between the two groups before and after treatment， which were remission rates of clinical symptoms including cough， expectoration （sputum volume， color， consistency）， and chest pain， levels of inflammatory markers including C‑reactive protein （CRP） and white blood cell count （WBC）， and the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT. Subgroup analyses were performed based on age， gender， smoking status， presence of hypertension， and the severity of community-acquired pneumonia （CURB‑65） score， comparing the two groups in terms of cough remission rate， chest pain remission rate， and chest CT absorption rate. For health economic evaluation， cost‑effectiveness analysis was used to calculate the cost‑effectiveness ratio （CER） and incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio （ICER）. Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the results. ResultsA total of 647 patients in the exposure group and 1491 patients in the non-exposure group were included in the final statistical analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in length of hospital stay， gender， marital status， smoking history， bronchoscopy history， and comorbidities between the groups （P＞0.05）， but age， CURB-65 score， and antibiotic use. The exposure group had significantly higher remission rates of cough and sputum consistency than the non-exposure group （P＜0.05）. After adjusting for confounders using propensity score matching and logistic regression， the cough remission rate in the exposure group was 1.49 times that of the non-exposure group （P＜0.01）. No significant difference was observed between groups in the reduction rates of CRP and WBC， and in the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT （P＞0.05）. Subgroup analyses revealed that the cough remission rate in the exposure group was significantly better than that in the non-exposure group except for patients aged ≥65 years， smokers， hypertensive patients， those using other type antibiotics or not using antibiotics， and those with a CURB-65 score ≥1 （P＜0.05）. Among smokers， the chest pain remission rate in the exposure group was 4.38 times that of the non-exposure group （P＜0.01）. No significant difference in chest CT absorption rate was found between groups across subgroups of gender， age， hypertension status， or antibiotic type （P＞0.05）. In terms of economic evaluation， CER was 10,877.60 CNY/case in the exposure group and 16,773.10 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. Compared to the exposure group， the non-exposure group incurred an additional 15,034.26 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution， indicating a more favorable cost-effectiveness profile. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded results consistent with the cost-effectiveness analysis， confirming the robustness of the findings. ConclusionWQF demonstrates significant efficacy in improving cough symptoms in the treatment of adult CAP with phlegm-heat obstructing the lung syndrome， and also exhibits favorable economic benefits.

BACKGROUND:Age-related macular degeneration and deep vein thrombosis may share common pathophysiological mechanisms,but there is a lack of direct evidence regarding their relationship.Traditional studies are confounded by confounding factors and reverse causation.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the causal relationship between age-related macular degeneration and deep vein thrombosis based on Mendelian randomization design.METHODS:Through a two-way Mendelian randomization analysis,single nucleotide polymorphisms of exposure and outcomes were obtained from publicly available genome-wide association studies,with deep vein thrombosis data from the FinnGen database in a European population with a sample size of 363 612 and 1 048 575 single nucleotide polymorphisms.In addition,we obtained data on age-related macular degeneration from the IEUOpenGWAS project,also from a European population sample of 105 248 cases covering 11 304 110 single nucleotide polymorphisms.In R4.4.1,we used the TwoSampleMR package(version 0.6.8)to explore the causal effects of exposure factors on outcomes.At the same time,we also conducted a sensitivity analysis via MR-Egger regression,weighted median,weighted model and simple model methods to ensure that the assessment results were robust and reliable.In addition,we used the"heterogeneity"function to test for heterogeneity,and the"horizontal pleiotropy"function and the MR-PRESSO test to further assess horizontal pleotropy.The Cochran's Q test was used to determine whether there was statistical heterogeneity between single nucleotide polymorphisms,and the leave-one-out method was used to assess whether single nucleotide polymorphisms would significantly interfere with Mendelian randomization analysis.Funnel plots were drawn to assess the potential bias of single nucleotide polymorphisms.Forest plots were plotted to show the effect estimates of single nucleotide polymorphisms on exposure and outcomes,and their confidence intervals were plotted.Scatter plots were plotted to evaluate the relationship between the potency of single nucleotide polymorphisms and their causal effect size on outcome estimates.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Both forward and reverse studies showed that there was no causal association between age-related macular degeneration and the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis(P＞0.05).Sensitivity analysis showed that the main analysis results were reliable and robust,with no outliers,heterogeneity,and horizontal pleiotropy,and no single nucleotide polymorphism significantly affected the overall effect estimate.Although it is based on European population data,it has methodological reference value for Chinese biomedical research on complex disease associations.In this field,China can carry out multi-center large-sample studies,accurately analyze the internal links between Chinese population-related diseases,and provide a basis for prevention and treatment strategies and clinical practice.

BACKGROUND:Age-related macular degeneration and deep vein thrombosis may share common pathophysiological mechanisms,but there is a lack of direct evidence regarding their relationship.Traditional studies are confounded by confounding factors and reverse causation.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the causal relationship between age-related macular degeneration and deep vein thrombosis based on Mendelian randomization design.METHODS:Through a two-way Mendelian randomization analysis,single nucleotide polymorphisms of exposure and outcomes were obtained from publicly available genome-wide association studies,with deep vein thrombosis data from the FinnGen database in a European population with a sample size of 363 612 and 1 048 575 single nucleotide polymorphisms.In addition,we obtained data on age-related macular degeneration from the IEUOpenGWAS project,also from a European population sample of 105 248 cases covering 11 304 110 single nucleotide polymorphisms.In R4.4.1,we used the TwoSampleMR package(version 0.6.8)to explore the causal effects of exposure factors on outcomes.At the same time,we also conducted a sensitivity analysis via MR-Egger regression,weighted median,weighted model and simple model methods to ensure that the assessment results were robust and reliable.In addition,we used the"heterogeneity"function to test for heterogeneity,and the"horizontal pleiotropy"function and the MR-PRESSO test to further assess horizontal pleotropy.The Cochran's Q test was used to determine whether there was statistical heterogeneity between single nucleotide polymorphisms,and the leave-one-out method was used to assess whether single nucleotide polymorphisms would significantly interfere with Mendelian randomization analysis.Funnel plots were drawn to assess the potential bias of single nucleotide polymorphisms.Forest plots were plotted to show the effect estimates of single nucleotide polymorphisms on exposure and outcomes,and their confidence intervals were plotted.Scatter plots were plotted to evaluate the relationship between the potency of single nucleotide polymorphisms and their causal effect size on outcome estimates.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Both forward and reverse studies showed that there was no causal association between age-related macular degeneration and the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis(P＞0.05).Sensitivity analysis showed that the main analysis results were reliable and robust,with no outliers,heterogeneity,and horizontal pleiotropy,and no single nucleotide polymorphism significantly affected the overall effect estimate.Although it is based on European population data,it has methodological reference value for Chinese biomedical research on complex disease associations.In this field,China can carry out multi-center large-sample studies,accurately analyze the internal links between Chinese population-related diseases,and provide a basis for prevention and treatment strategies and clinical practice.

ObjectiveTo explore the vascular endothelial injury in male mice caused by exposure to polystyrene microplastics （PS-MPs） and the intervention effect of luteolin on vascular remodeling. Additionally， to investigate the mechanism through the oxidative system and metabolomics. MethodsThirty-two C57BL/6 mice （6-8 weeks old） were randomly divided into the saline group （saline group）， the 0.1 mg/kg PS-MPs exposure group （0.1PS-MPs group）， the 1 mg/kg PS-MPs exposure group （1PS-MPs group）， and the 1 mg/kg PS-MPs + luteolin treatment group （1PS-MPs + Lut group）， with 8 mice in each group. After 8 weeks of intervention， the body weight， blood pressure， aortic organ coefficient， and aortic histopathological changes of mice in each group were detected； the total cholesterol （TC）， triglyceride （TG）， and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （HDL-C） lipid metabolism-related indicators in the aorta of mice were detected； the reactive oxygen species （ROS）， glutathione （GSH）， and malondialdehyde （MDA） oxidative stress-related indicators were detected； the endothelin （ET-1）， nitric oxide （NO）， vascular endothelial growth factor A （VEGF-A）， vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 （VCAM-1/CD106）， and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 （ICAM-1/CD54） endothelial function-related indicators and serum metabolomics were detected. ResultsCompared to the saline group， exposure to PS-MPs resulted in pathological thickening of the mouse aorta， increased aortic organ coefficient， and elevated blood pressure. Lipid metabolism-related indicators， including TC and TG， were elevated， while HDL-C was reduced， indicating lipid metabolism disorder in mice. Oxidative stress markers such as ROS and MDA increased， whereas GSH decreased， demonstrating oxidative damage. Vascular endothelial inflammation and injury markers， including ET-1， VEGF-A， VCAM-1， and ICAM-1， were upregulated， while the vasodilatory substance NO was downregulated， confirming endothelial injury. Furthermore， serum metabolomics results revealed that PS-MPs exposure induced endothelial damage by disrupting metabolic pathways such as the citrate cycle. Compared to the PS-MPs group， luteolin significantly reversed these effects， attenuating oxidative stress and lipid metabolism disorders， and effectively repairing endothelial injury. ConclusionPS-MPs induce vascular toxicity through oxidative stress and lipid metabolism. Luteolin effectively alleviates endothelial damage and vascular remodeling.

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between metabolic associated fatty liver disease （MAFLD） and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD）， and to provide data support for the prevention and treatment of such metabolic-associated diseases in clinical practice. MethodsAn observation cohort was established for the workers of Kailuan who underwent physical examination for the first time from June 2006 to October 2007 and had complete liver assessment data， without the history of malignant tumor， MAFLD or ASCVD. According to the presence or absence of MAFLD， the patients were divided into non-MAFLD group with 67 565 patients and MAFLD group with 29 004 patients， and according to the presence or absence of ASCVD， the patients were divided into non-ASCVD group with 69 141 patients and ASCVD group with 481 patients. The group t-test or the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for comparison of continuous data between the two groups. The χ² test was used for comparison of categorical data between the two groups. The life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rates of new-onset ASCVD and MAFLD； the Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curves of the cumulative incidence rates of ASCVD in the MAFLD group and the non-MAFLD group and the cumulative incidence rates of MAFLD in the ASCVD group and the non-ASCVD group， and the log-rank test was used for comparison of cumulative incidence rates between two groups. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model analysis was used to investigate the impact of MAFLD on the risk of ASCVD and the impact of ASCVD on the risk of MAFLD. ResultsCompared with the non-MAFLD group， the MAFLD group had significantly higher levels of body mass index （BMI）， waist circumference， systolic blood pressure （SBP）， diastolic blood pressure （DBP）， resting heart rate， alanine aminotransferase， uric acid （UA）， fasting blood glucose （FBG）， triglyceride （TG）， total cholesterol， low-density lipoprotein cholesterol， and high sensitivity C-reactive protein （hs-CRP）， as well as significanty lower levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR） and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （all P <0.05）. Compared with the non-ASCVD group， the ASCVD group had significantly higher levels of BMI， waist circumference， SBP， DBP， UA， FBG， TG， and hs-CRP and a significantly lower level of eGFR （all P<0.05）. The incidence rate of new-onset ASCVD continued to increase over time in the MAFLD group and the non-MAFLD group， while the incidence rate of new-onset MAFLD firstly increased and then remained stable over time in the ASCVD group and the non-ASCVD group. There were 4 263 cases （14.70%） of new-osnet ASCVD in the MAFLD group， with an incidence density of 12.90 per 1 000 person-years， while there were 6 529 cases （9.66%） of new-osnet ASCVD in the non-MAFLD group， with an incidence density of 8.24 per 1 000 person-years， and there were significant differences in the incidence density and cumulative incidence rate of ASCVD between the two groups （χ²=519.09 and 531.80， both P<0.05）. There were 148 cases （30.77%） of new-onset MAFLD in the ASCVD group， with an incidence density of 40.10 per 1 000 person-years， while there were 32 194 cases （46.56%） of new-onset MAFLD in the non-ASCVD group， with an incidence density of 57.59 per 1 000 person-years， and there were significant differences in the incidence density and cumulative incidence rate of MAFLD between the two groups （χ²=19.29 and 30.78， both P<0.05）. The corrected multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model analysis showed that MAFLD was a risk factor for new-onset ASCVD （hazard ratio ［HR］=1.11， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.06 — 1.16， P<0.001）， while ASCVD was a protective factor against new-onset MAFLD （HR=0.72， 95%CI： 0.61 — 0.85， P<0.001）. ConclusionThere is a significant association between MAFLD and ASCVD， with an increase in the risk of ASCVD in the MAFLD population and a reduction in the risk of MAFLD in the ASCVD population.

Objective To evaluate and improve missing data imputation methods to enhance the performance of binary classification prediction model.Methods By simulating data missing scenes,the effects of direct elimination,mean imputation,random forest(RF)imputation algorithm,and multiple imputation-random forest(MI-RF)on the performance of the prediction model were jointly evaluated by receiver operating characteristic area under curve(AUC)and root mean square error(RMSE).Bayesian Network was introduced for the random forest imputation algorithm to optimize the imputation method using the correlations between variables.Results Under different missing proportions,both AUC and RMSE indicated that Bayesian network optimized random forest(BN-RF)imputation algorithm was better.In addition,when the missing proportion was 10％-20％,various imputation methods had roughly the same improvement effect for the prediction model;when the proportion of missing data was 30％-40％,compared to the mean imputation,except for the BN-RF,RF was more effective and its effect was slightly better than MI-RF;however,when the proportion of missing data was close to 50％,even if the model performance was still appropriate,the imputation data gradually deviated from the true data features,resulting in a decrease in the usability of the model.Conclusion The overall effect of BN-RF is satisfactory,and it should be chosen when random missing was 30％-40％.

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between cumulative atherogenic index of plasma （cumAIP） and the risk of new-onset nonalcoholic fatty liver disease （NAFLD） in young and middle-aged individuals. MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among the young and middle-aged individuals （aged 18 to <60 years） in the Kailuan study cohort who underwent physical examination in Kailuan General Hospital and its 10 affiliated hospitals in June 2006 to October 2010， and after screening based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria， 33 987 individuals were included in the observation cohort. The individuals were divided into Q1， Q2， Q3， and Q4 groups based on the quantiles of cumAIP. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of new-onset NAFLD in the four groups， while the log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to obtain the hazard ratio （HR） and 95% confidence interval （CI） of the risk of new-onset NAFLD in the four groups. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups， and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical variables between groups. ResultsThe mean follow-up was 10.89±2.54 years， and there were 6 011 cases of new-onset NAFLD， including 995 cases in the Q1 group， 1 366 in the Q2 group， 1661 in the Q3 group， and 1 989 in the Q4 group， with an incidence density of 11.37， 16.02， 19.97， and 24.91 per thousand person-years. The log-rank test showed that there was a significant difference in cumulative incidence rate between the four groups （P<0.001）. With the presence or absence of NAFLD as the dependent variable and the quantiles of different exposure levels to cumAIP as the independent variable， the multivariate Cox regression model analysis showed that compared with the Q1 group， the Q2， Q3， and Q4 groups had an HR of 1.30 （95%CI： 1.20 — 1.41）， 1.52 （95%CI： 1.41 — 1.65）， and 1.79 （95%CI： 1.64 — 1.95）， respectively， for new-onset NAFLD， with a P_trend value of <0.001. With the presence or absence of new-onset NAFLD as the dependent variable and the cumulative exposure to AIP for 0， 2， 4， and 6 years as the independent variable， the Cox regression analysis showed that compared with cumulative exposure to AIP for 0 years， cumulative exposure to AIP for 2， 4， and 6 years had an HR of 1.24 （95%CI： 1.15 — 1.35）， 1.51 （95%CI： 1.40 — 1.64）， and 1.70 （95%CI： 1.56 — 1.84）， respectively， with a P_trend value of <0.001. A sensitivity analysis was performed after exclusion of the individuals with new-onset NAFLD within 2 years， the individuals who experienced atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events during follow-up， and the individuals taking antihypertensive， hypoglycemic， and lipid-lowering drugs， and the results were similar to those of the main analysis. Considering the competitive relationship between all-cause death and outcome events， a competing risk analysis of death was performed， which showed that the results of risk analysis were similar to those of the main analysis. ConclusionA high level of cumAIP exposure can increase the risk of new-onset NAFLD in young and middle-aged individuals.