1.Analysis of Dengue virus nucleic acid testing screening among blood donors in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, China
Xinru LIU ; Shaofang LU ; Ying YAN ; Jing DONG ; Ji WU ; Jie MA ; Le CHANG ; Huimin JI ; Huizhen SUN ; Mingwen DENG ; Xiaoqian GAO ; Lunan WANG
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(12):1662-1668
Objective: To investigate the prevalence of Dengue virus (DENV) infection among voluntary blood donors in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, and to evaluate the necessity of implementing nucleic acid testing (NAT) for blood donors during the rainy season (May-October). Methods: Prior to initiating donor screening, the Xishuangbanna Central Blood Center conducted in-house validation of reagent performance and participated in external quality assessment (EQA) organized by the National Center for Clinical Laboratories (NCCL). During the surveillance period (August-October 2024), a total of 2 919 donor samples were screened using a 6-sample mini-pool NAT strategy. Daily internal quality controls were recorded. Samples that tested positive in pooled screening were deconvoluted and retested in duplicate; only those reactive in both replicate wells were sent to the NCCL for confirmatory testing. At NCCL, samples underwent re-testing using five domestic NAT reagents, as well as serological assays for NS1 antigen and DENV-specific IgG/IgM. Confirmed positive samples were further characterized by serotyping, envelope (E) gene sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis using the maximum likelihood method. Results: The DENV NAT reagent demonstrated consistent detection of 40 copies/mL controls in individual donor (ID)-NAT test (mean CT: 35.61±0.40). During the 63-day quality control monitoring, DENV detection remained stable (mean CT: 22.53±0.72). The center achieved full marks in EQA assessments for 2023 and 2024. Three reactive pools were identified in initial screening, and subsequent individual testing confirmed three DENV RNA-positive donors (sample numbers: 2401, 2402, and 2403). The confirmatory test results from NCCL were: all five NAT platforms consistently detected DENV RNA in the three samples; for serological tests, 2 samples (2402, 2403) were positive for NS1 antigen, while all three samples were negative for both IgG and IgM antibodies. DENV serotyping reagents identified DENV-2 in all cases, which were further confirmed as DENV-2 Genotype Ⅱ-Cosmopolitan by E gene sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that samples 2401 and 2402 clustered with Southeast Asian strains (Thailand/MZ636802.1, Laos/PQ775621.1), while sample 2403 closely matched a previously reported local Yunnan strain (PV544686.1). Conclusion: DENV-2 infection was detected among blood donors in Xishuangbanna during the rainy season, indicating concurrent risks of imported and local transmission. We recommend implementing pooled NAT screening for blood donors in high-risk areas during dengue epidemic seasons, along with strengthened laboratory quality control, to enhance blood safety.
2.An experimental method for direct detection of lymphocyte γ-H2AX in mice peripheral blood and its application
Lei SHI ; Xing SHEN ; Ya DONG ; Qiaoyun ZHANG ; Hongling OU ; Xiujun SONG ; Yingying MA ; Xinru WANG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection 2025;45(1):18-23
Objective:To develop a method of employing flow cytometry to directly detect the γ-H2AX expression levels in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice through fixation and lysis and to evaluate the feasibility of applying this method to research on the radiation-related biological effects and the efficacy evaluation of radioprotective drugs.Methods:A total of 41 male C57BL/6J mice were used. First, 21 mice were randomly divided into 7 groups according to different radiation doses (0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 Gy) with 3 mice in each group. Blood samples were collected from the tail vein of mice at 1, 4, 8, and 24 h after irradiation and immediately fixed with formaldehyde. Red blood cells (RBC) were lysed with Triton X-100, and γ-H2AX was labeled with specific antibodies. DRAQ5 dye was used to further exclude debris and anucleate cells. The mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in lymphocyte populations was directly analyzed by flow cytometry through forward and side scatter, and dose-effect curves after irradiation were established. Then, the other 20 mice were divided into radiation alone groups and radiation combined with WR-2721 administration groups at 4 and 6 Gy, respectively, with 5 mice in each group. Blood samples were collected from the tail vein of mice at 1, 4, 8, and 24 h after irradiation to detect the average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in lymphocytes, which was used to evaluate the degree of DNA damage in mice and the therapeutic effect of WR-2721.Results:The expression of γ-H2AX in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice significantly increased with the increase of radiation doses, and reached a peak at 1-2 h and then decreased. The dose-effect relationship was significant ( R2 = 0.9914). At 24 h after 4 and 6 Gy irradiation, compared with the radiation alone groups, the average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in the radiation combined with WR-2721 administration groups was lower (144.8 ± 8.0 and 109.5 ± 9.7, vs. 178.0 ± 18.5 and 136.6 ± 5.4), with statistically significant difference ( t = 3.78, 5.48, P < 0.05). The average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX at 24 h after irradiation was consistent with the lowest values of the three blood cell lines at 7 or 14 d after irradiation. Conclusions:The application of flow cytometry with a fixation/dissolution protocol to directly detect the mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice has significant application value in radiation biology effect research, radiation protection drug screening, and efficacy evaluation.
3.Mechanisms by which the gut microbiota regulates depressive disorder via the tryptophan metabolic pathway.
Jing DU ; Jiao LI ; Pule LIU ; Yan ZHANG ; Qiangli DONG ; Ning YANG ; Xinru LIU
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(7):1263-1270
The relationship between gut microbiota and depressive disorder has become a research focus in recent years. Within the microbiota-gut-brain axis, the gut microbiota influences the onset and progression of depressive disorder primarily through the tryptophan metabolic pathway. Tryptophan, an essential amino acid in humans, is subject to dual regulation by intestinal microorganisms, which modulate its metabolic balance via inflammatory stimulation and microbial metabolite production. In depression, excessive activation of the kynurenine branch of tryptophan metabolism leads to the accumulation of proinflammatory and neurotoxic metabolites, thereby exacerbating neuroinflammation in the brain. Intervention studies indicate that the antidepressant-like effects of probiotics and traditional Chinese medicine are associated with remodeling of the gut microbiota, restoration of tryptophan metabolic balance, and alleviation of neuroinflammation. Furthermore, targeted inhibition of kynurenine 3-monooxygenase can mitigate neuroinflammation by regulating microglial activity, thus improving depressive-like behaviors. In summary, the metabolite-inflammation axis represents a central node in the interaction regulation between tryptophan metabolism and the microbiota-gut-brain axis. This provides a theoretical foundation for developing novel therapeutic strategies targeting depression through modulation of gut microbiota-mediated tryptophan metabolism.
Tryptophan/metabolism*
;
Gastrointestinal Microbiome/physiology*
;
Humans
;
Depressive Disorder/microbiology*
;
Probiotics/therapeutic use*
;
Brain/metabolism*
;
Kynurenine/metabolism*
;
Metabolic Networks and Pathways
;
Animals
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
4.An experimental method for direct detection of lymphocyte γ-H2AX in mice peripheral blood and its application
Lei SHI ; Xing SHEN ; Ya DONG ; Qiaoyun ZHANG ; Hongling OU ; Xiujun SONG ; Yingying MA ; Xinru WANG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection 2025;45(1):18-23
Objective:To develop a method of employing flow cytometry to directly detect the γ-H2AX expression levels in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice through fixation and lysis and to evaluate the feasibility of applying this method to research on the radiation-related biological effects and the efficacy evaluation of radioprotective drugs.Methods:A total of 41 male C57BL/6J mice were used. First, 21 mice were randomly divided into 7 groups according to different radiation doses (0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 Gy) with 3 mice in each group. Blood samples were collected from the tail vein of mice at 1, 4, 8, and 24 h after irradiation and immediately fixed with formaldehyde. Red blood cells (RBC) were lysed with Triton X-100, and γ-H2AX was labeled with specific antibodies. DRAQ5 dye was used to further exclude debris and anucleate cells. The mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in lymphocyte populations was directly analyzed by flow cytometry through forward and side scatter, and dose-effect curves after irradiation were established. Then, the other 20 mice were divided into radiation alone groups and radiation combined with WR-2721 administration groups at 4 and 6 Gy, respectively, with 5 mice in each group. Blood samples were collected from the tail vein of mice at 1, 4, 8, and 24 h after irradiation to detect the average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in lymphocytes, which was used to evaluate the degree of DNA damage in mice and the therapeutic effect of WR-2721.Results:The expression of γ-H2AX in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice significantly increased with the increase of radiation doses, and reached a peak at 1-2 h and then decreased. The dose-effect relationship was significant ( R2 = 0.9914). At 24 h after 4 and 6 Gy irradiation, compared with the radiation alone groups, the average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in the radiation combined with WR-2721 administration groups was lower (144.8 ± 8.0 and 109.5 ± 9.7, vs. 178.0 ± 18.5 and 136.6 ± 5.4), with statistically significant difference ( t = 3.78, 5.48, P < 0.05). The average fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX at 24 h after irradiation was consistent with the lowest values of the three blood cell lines at 7 or 14 d after irradiation. Conclusions:The application of flow cytometry with a fixation/dissolution protocol to directly detect the mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX in peripheral blood lymphocytes of mice has significant application value in radiation biology effect research, radiation protection drug screening, and efficacy evaluation.
5.Analysis factors influencing left ventricular thrombus in patients with non-ischemic heart failure
Zhiyan WANG ; Hao ZHANG ; Wenjie LI ; Chang HUA ; Yangyang TANG ; Xinru LIU ; Yuling XIONG ; Qiang LYU ; Jianzeng DONG ; Xin DU
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2024;52(10):1155-1161
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of left ventricular thrombus (LVT) in patients with non-ischemic heart failure (NIHF) and to construct a nomogram prediction model for NIHF patients with LVT.Methods:This study was a case-control study. A total of 2 592 patients with NIHF hospitalized in Beijing Anzhen Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University from January 2018 to July 2022 were selected. Fifty-one patients with LVT identified by echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance were classified into LVT group. One hundred and sixty patients were selected as the non-LVT group using a 1∶3 propensity score matching based on age and gender. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors of LVT in patients with NIHF. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and the area under (AUC) the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to evaluate the predictive effect of the model.Results:A total of 211 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 40 years old and 160 males (76%). Compared with non-LVT group, LVT group had lower systolic blood pressure ((112±20) mmHg vs. (120±19) mmHg; 1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; (27±12)% vs. (39±14)% ), lower proportion of patients with history of hypertension (28% (14/51) vs. 44% (70/160)) and atrial fibrillation (8% (4/51)vs.39% (62/160)), higher proportion of patients with New York Heart Association functional class Ⅲ to Ⅳ (class Ⅲ: 59% (30/51) vs. 41% (66/160); class Ⅳ: 28% (14/51) vs. 19% (31/160)), and larger left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD; (56±14) mm vs. (50±15) mm). The levels of hemoglobin ((152±23) g/L vs. (142±30) g/L), D-dimer (508 (300, 1 105) μg/L vs. 158 (68, 379) μg/L), and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (3 429 (2 462, 4 734) ng/L vs. 1 288 (422, 2 544) ng/L) were higher in LVT group than in non-LVT group ( P all<0.05). LVT group had a higher proportion of patients using beta-blockers (92% (47/51) vs. 78% (124/160)), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers or angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (88% (45/51) vs. 72% (115/160)), and anticoagulant drugs (98% (50/51) vs. 32% (51/160)) than non-LVT group (all P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression showed that reduced LVEF ( OR=1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.15, P=0.008), decreased LVESD ( OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.12, P=0.013), and increased D-dimer levels ( OR=5.40, 95% CI 1.98-14.74, P=0.001) were independent influencing factors for LVT in patients with NIHF. The ROC curve showed that the AUC of the nomogram for predicting LVT in patients with NIHF was 0.793 (95% CI 0.710-0.876, P<0.001). Conclusion:Reduced LVEF, decreased LVESD, and elevated D-dimer are associated with LVT in NIHF patients. The predictive model developed based on the above indicators has certain value in predicting LVT in NIHF patients.
6.Evidence-based clinical guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of surgical site infection in spinal trauma (version 2024)
Zhu GUO ; Chao WANG ; Hongfei XIANG ; Zhongqiang CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Tongwei CHU ; Shucai DENG ; Jian DONG ; Xinru DU ; Shiqing FENG ; Baorong HE ; Xijing HE ; Jianzhong HU ; Yong HAI ; Qingquan KONG ; Guiqing LIANG ; Qi LIAO ; Zhongjun LIU ; Shaoyu LIU ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Weishi LI ; Li LI ; Fang LI ; Bin LIN ; Shibao LU ; Tao NIU ; Zhenli QIAO ; Dike RUAN ; Yueming SONG ; Haipeng SI ; Jun SHU ; Zhongyi SUN ; Qing WANG ; Zili WANG ; Huan WANG ; Hongli WANG ; Yan WANG ; Xiaolin WU ; Zhanyong WU ; Jinglong YAN ; Tengbo YU ; Qiang ZHANG ; Guoqing ZHANG ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Fengdong ZHAO ; Jie ZHAO ; Zhaomin ZHENG ; Qingsan ZHU ; Dingjun HAO ; Bohua CHEN
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2024;40(12):1057-1070
Spinal surgical site infection (SSI), especially deep SSI after internal fixation is difficult in treatment, with long course of disease and poor prognosis. At present, there are many controversies in the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI, with unsatisfactory overall efficacy of its diagnosis and treatment. Besides, no diagnosis and treatment guideline based on evidence-based medicine has been in existence. To this end, the Spinal Infection Group of the Orthopedic Branch of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association and the Spinal Infection Group of the Spinal Surgery Branch of the Chinese Rehabilitation Medicine Association jointly organized relevant experts to formulate Evidence-based clinical guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of surgical site infection in spinal trauma ( version 2024) based on an evidence-based approach. A total of 10 recommendations were proposed on the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI, so as to provide a clinical reference for the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI.
7.Evidence-based clinical guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of surgical site infection in spinal trauma (version 2024)
Zhu GUO ; Chao WANG ; Hongfei XIANG ; Zhongqiang CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Tongwei CHU ; Shucai DENG ; Jian DONG ; Xinru DU ; Shiqing FENG ; Baorong HE ; Xijing HE ; Jianzhong HU ; Yong HAI ; Qingquan KONG ; Guiqing LIANG ; Qi LIAO ; Zhongjun LIU ; Shaoyu LIU ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Weishi LI ; Li LI ; Fang LI ; Bin LIN ; Shibao LU ; Tao NIU ; Zhenli QIAO ; Dike RUAN ; Yueming SONG ; Haipeng SI ; Jun SHU ; Zhongyi SUN ; Qing WANG ; Zili WANG ; Huan WANG ; Hongli WANG ; Yan WANG ; Xiaolin WU ; Zhanyong WU ; Jinglong YAN ; Tengbo YU ; Qiang ZHANG ; Guoqing ZHANG ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Fengdong ZHAO ; Jie ZHAO ; Zhaomin ZHENG ; Qingsan ZHU ; Dingjun HAO ; Bohua CHEN
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2024;40(12):1057-1070
Spinal surgical site infection (SSI), especially deep SSI after internal fixation is difficult in treatment, with long course of disease and poor prognosis. At present, there are many controversies in the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI, with unsatisfactory overall efficacy of its diagnosis and treatment. Besides, no diagnosis and treatment guideline based on evidence-based medicine has been in existence. To this end, the Spinal Infection Group of the Orthopedic Branch of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association and the Spinal Infection Group of the Spinal Surgery Branch of the Chinese Rehabilitation Medicine Association jointly organized relevant experts to formulate Evidence-based clinical guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of surgical site infection in spinal trauma ( version 2024) based on an evidence-based approach. A total of 10 recommendations were proposed on the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI, so as to provide a clinical reference for the diagnosis and treatment of spinal SSI.
8.Mechanism of transforming growth factor- β1 induce renal fibrosis based on transcriptome sequencing analysis.
Huanan LI ; Peifen LI ; Shanyi LI ; Xueying ZHANG ; Xinru DONG ; Ming YANG ; Weigan SHEN
Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2023;52(5):594-604
OBJECTIVES:
To explore the mechanism of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) induce renal fibrosis.
METHODS:
Renal fibroblast NRK-49F cells treated with and without TGF-β1 were subjected to RNA-seq analysis. DESeq2 was used for analysis. Differentially expressed genes were screened with the criteria of false discovery rate<0.05 and l o g 2 F C >1. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were performed for differentially expressed genes. Genes encoding transcription factors were further screened for differential expression genes. Then, the expression of these genes during renal fibrosis was verified using unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO)-induced mouse renal fibrosis model and a public gene expression dataset (GSE104954).
RESULTS:
After TGF-β1 treatment for 6, 12 and 24 h, 552, 1209 and 1028 differentially expressed genes were identified, respectively. GO analysis indicated that these genes were significantly enriched in development, cell death, and cell migration. KEGG pathway analysis showed that in the early stage of TGF-β1 induction (TGF-β1 treatment for 6 h), the changes in Hippo, TGF-β and Wnt signaling pathways were observed, while in the late stage of TGF-β1 induction (TGF-β1 treatment for 24 h), the changes of extracellular matrix-receptor interaction, focal adhesion and adherens junction were mainly enriched. Among the 291 up-regulated differentially expressed genes treated with TGF-β1 for 6 h, 13 genes (Snai1, Irf8, Bhlhe40, Junb, Arid5a, Vdr, Lef1, Ahr, Foxo1, Myc, Tcf7, Foxc2, Glis1) encoded transcription factors. Validation in a cell model showed that TGF-β1 induced expression of 9 transcription factors (encoded by Snai1, Irf8, Bhlhe40, Junb, Arid5a, Vdr, Lef1, Myc, Tcf7), while the expression levels of the other 4 genes did not significantly change after TGF-β1 treatment. Validation results in UUO-induced mouse renal fibrosis model showed that Snai1, Irf8, Bhlhe40, Junb, Arid5a, Myc and Tcf7 were up-regulated after UUO, Vdr was down-regulated and there was no significant change in Lef1. Validation based on the GSE104954 dataset showed that IRF8 was significantly overexpressed in the renal tubulointerstitium of patients with diabetic nephropathy or IgA nephropathy, MYC was highly expressed in diabetic nephropathy, and the expressions of the other 7 genes were not significantly different compared with the control group.
CONCLUSIONS
TGF-β1 induces differentially expressed genes in renal fibroblasts, among which Irf8 and Myc were identified as potential targets of chronic kidney disease and renal fibrosis.
Mice
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Animals
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Humans
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Transforming Growth Factor beta1/metabolism*
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Diabetic Nephropathies/pathology*
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Transcriptome
;
Signal Transduction
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Kidney
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Ureteral Obstruction/pathology*
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Fibrosis
;
Interferon Regulatory Factors
;
Transforming Growth Factor beta/metabolism*
;
DNA-Binding Proteins/metabolism*
;
Transcription Factors/metabolism*
9.MANF brakes TLR4 signaling by competitively binding S100A8 with S100A9 to regulate macrophage phenotypes in hepatic fibrosis.
Chao HOU ; Dong WANG ; Mingxia ZHAO ; Petek BALLAR ; Xinru ZHANG ; Qiong MEI ; Wei WANG ; Xiang LI ; Qiang SHENG ; Jun LIU ; Chuansheng WEI ; Yujun SHEN ; Yi YANG ; Peng WANG ; Juntang SHAO ; Sa XU ; Fuyan WANG ; Yang SUN ; Yuxian SHEN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2023;13(10):4234-4252
The mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor (MANF) has been recently identified as a neurotrophic factor, but its role in hepatic fibrosis is unknown. Here, we found that MANF was upregulated in the fibrotic liver tissues of the patients with chronic liver diseases and of mice treated with CCl4. MANF deficiency in either hepatocytes or hepatic mono-macrophages, particularly in hepatic mono-macrophages, clearly exacerbated hepatic fibrosis. Myeloid-specific MANF knockout increased the population of hepatic Ly6Chigh macrophages and promoted HSCs activation. Furthermore, MANF-sufficient macrophages (from WT mice) transfusion ameliorated CCl4-induced hepatic fibrosis in myeloid cells-specific MANF knockout (MKO) mice. Mechanistically, MANF interacted with S100A8 to competitively block S100A8/A9 heterodimer formation and inhibited S100A8/A9-mediated TLR4-NF-κB signal activation. Pharmacologically, systemic administration of recombinant human MANF significantly alleviated CCl4-induced hepatic fibrosis in both WT and hepatocytes-specific MANF knockout (HKO) mice. This study reveals a mechanism by which MANF targets S100A8/A9-TLR4 as a "brake" on the upstream of NF-κB pathway, which exerts an impact on macrophage differentiation and shed light on hepatic fibrosis treatment.
10.The epidemic situation and influencing factors of plague in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau
Xiaolei ZHOU ; Xinru WAN ; Jianyun LI ; Dong YAN ; Kuidong SHAO ; Zhongbing ZHANG ; Zhibin ZHANG ; Guoyi DU ; Cheng JU ; Cheng XU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2022;41(9):695-702
Objective:To analyze the epidemic situation of plague among animals in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau, and to find out key influencing factors affecting the epidemic of the plague, and to provide theoretical basis for the prediction, early warning and risk assessment of the plague. Methods:The monitoring data including gerbils density, gerbils body flea index, plague epidemic intensity, etc., as well as environmental data including temperature, precipitation and El Ni?o activity (Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) from 19 banners (counties, cities and districts) in Ulanqab Plateau area, the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau were selected. The methods of correlation analysis, structural equation model and rank correlation were used to analyze the epidemic and key influencing factors of plague among animals in the foci. Results:The plague epidemic cycle in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus in Inner Mongolia Plateau was 5 to 10 years. The correlation analysis results showed that all the factors had influence on each other. Structural equation model screened out that the main influencing factors of plague epidemic were SOI, gerbils density and temperature. SOI had a negative effect on plague epidemic intensity (-0.022) and temperature (-0.029), while gerbils density had a positive effect on plague epidemic intensity (0.014), and temperature had a negative effect on plague epidemic intensity (-0.065). In rank correlation, when the gerbils density was at a high value, the probability of high plague epidemic intensity in that year was 4/9; when SOI was at a low value, the probability was 5/9; when the temperature was at a low value, the probability was 5/9. When the plague epidemic intensity was at a high value in that year, the probability of the plague epidemic intensity being high in the following year was 5/8; when the gerbils density was at a high value in that year, the probability was 4/9; when SOI was at a low value in that year, the probability was 4/9. Conclusion:Climate and biological factors can affect prevalence of plague, and countermeasures should be taken in advance to prevent plague outbreaks when El Ni?o phenomenon, low temperature, high density of gerbils, and high previous-year prevalence of plague appear.

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