1.Expert consensus on the clinical application of parenteral direct thrombin inhibitors in special populations
Xin YAO ; Yuan BIAN ; Lizhu HAN ; Qinan YIN ; Yang LEI ; Zimeng WAN ; Luyao HUANG ; Danjie ZHAO ; Yu YAN ; Qin LI ; Baorong HU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):965-975
OBJECTIVE To form an expert consensus addressing clinical issues regarding the use of parenteral direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) in special populations. METHODS Led by the Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital(the Affiliated Hospital of UESTC), a multidisciplinary working group was formed comprising experts from multiple fields, including clinical pharmacy, cardiac surgery, obstetrics, pediatrics and evidence-based medicine. Through literature review and the Delphi method, clinical questions regarding the efficacy and safety of parenteral DTIs used in special populations were identified. A structured design was adopted using the “Population-Intervention-Comparison-Outcome” (PICO) framework;systematic searches were conducted in CJFD, PubMed, Embase and other databases. Relevant evidence from randomized controlled trials,cohort studies and systematic reviews were included and synthesized. Evidence quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment,Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, and recommendations were formulated through three rounds of Delphi surveys and expert consensus meetings. RESULTS &CONCLUSIONS Seven clinical questions were ultimately selected (with a consensus rate exceeding 90%), resulting in the formulation of seven recommendations on the use of parenteral DTIs in special populations, including children, pregnant women, patients with hepatic or renal impairment, patients with mesenteric venous thrombosis, and individuals with thrombophilia. These recommendations clarify the preferred agents, dosing ranges, monitoring parameters, and safety management strategies for parenteral DTIs in these special populations. This expert consensus, which is formulated based on the best available evidence, provides evidence-based guidance for standardized and individualized use of parenteral DTIs in special populations.
2.Risk prediction of Reduning Injection batches by near-infrared spectroscopy combined with multiple machine learning algorithms.
Wen-Yu JIA ; Feng TONG ; Heng-Xu LIU ; Shu-Qin JIN ; Yong-Chao ZHANG ; Chen-Feng ZHANG ; Zhen-Zhong WANG ; Xin ZHANG ; Wei XIAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(2):430-438
In this paper, near-infrared spectroscopy(NIRS) was employed to analyze 129 batches of commercial products of Reduning Injection. The batch reporting rate was estimated according to the report of Reduning Injection in the direct adverse drug reaction(ADR) reporting system of the drug marketing authorization holder of the Center for Drug Reevaluation of the National Medical Products Administration(National Center for ADR Monitoring) from August 2021 to August 2022. According to the batch reporting rate, the samples of Reduning Injection were classified into those with potential risks and those being safe. No processing, random oversampling(ROS), random undersampling(RUS), and synthetic minority over-sampling technique(SMOTE) were then employed to balance the unbalanced data. After the samples were classified according to appropriate sampling methods, competitive adaptive reweighted sampling(CARS), successive projections algorithm(SPA), uninformative variables elimination(UVE), and genetic algorithm(GA) were respectively adopted to screen the features of spectral data. Then, support vector machine(SVM), logistic regression(LR), k-nearest neighbors(KNN), naive bayes(NB), random forest(RF), and artificial neural network(ANN) were adopted to establish the risk prediction models. The effects of the four feature extraction methods on the accuracy of the models were compared. The optimal method was selected, and bayesian optimization was performned to optimize the model parameters to improve the accuracy and robustness of model prediction. To explore the correlations between potential risks of clinical use and quality test data, TreeNet was employed to identify potential quality parameters affecting the clinical safety of Reduning Injection. The results showed that the models established with the SVM, LR, KNN, NB, RF, and ANN algorithms had the F1 scores of 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.85 and the accuracy of 88%, 88%, 88%, 85%, 91%, and 88%, respectively, and the prediction time was less than 5 s. The results indicated that the established models were accurate and efficient. Therefore, near infrared spectroscopy combined with machine learning algorithms can quickly predict the potential risks of clinical use of Reduning Injection in batches. Three key quality parameters that may affect clinical safety were identified by TreeNet, which provided a scientific basis for improving the safety standards of Reduning Injection.
Spectroscopy, Near-Infrared/methods*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Machine Learning
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Algorithms
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Humans
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Quality Control
3.Effect of Duhuo Jisheng Decoction on knee osteoarthritis model rabbits through regulation of cell pyroptosis mediated by PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway.
Lin-Qin HE ; Peng-Fei LI ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qi-Peng CHEN ; Zong-Han TANG ; Yu-Xin SONG ; Han-Bing SONG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(1):187-197
This study aimed to investigate the underlying mechanisms of Duhuo Jisheng Decoction(DJD) in the prevention and treatment of knee osteoarthritis(KOA). Forty SPF New Zealand rabbits were randomly divided using SPSS 26.0 software into five groups: blank group, model group, low-dose DJD group, high-dose DJD group, and high-dose DJD+phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt)/mammalian target of rapamycin(mTOR) signaling pathway activator group(high-dose DJD+740Y-P group), with eight rabbits in each group. Except for the blank group, the KOA model was established in the other groups using papain injection into the knee joint cavity combined with forced flexion of the knee joint. The day after modeling, the blank group and model group were given normal saline at 10 mL·kg~(-1) by gavage, the low-dose DJD group received DJD at 8.8 g·kg~(-1) by gavage, the high-dose DJD group received DJD at 35.2 g·kg~(-1) by gavage, and the high-dose DJD+740Y-P group received DJD at 35.2 g·kg~(-1) by gavage along with 740Y-P at 0.15 μmoL·kg~(-1) injected via the auricular vein. All groups received treatment continuously for four weeks. After modeling and intervention, behavioral observations were performed for all groups, and after the intervention, imaging assessments of the knee joints were conducted. Cartilage from the knee joints was collected, and gross morphological changes were observed. Pathological changes in cartilage tissue were examined using hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining. The results of these observations were quantitatively evaluated using the Lequesne MG score, Kellgren-Lawrence(K-L) grading, Pelletier score, and Mankin score. ELISA was used to measure the levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-18(IL-18), and matrix metalloproteinase 13(MMP13) in cartilage tissue. Real-time RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression levels of PI3K, Akt, mTOR, Nod-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3), cysteine protease 1(caspase-1), and gasdermin D(GSDMD) in cartilage tissue. Western blot was employed to measure the protein expression levels of PI3K, Akt, mTOR, NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. The results showed that compared with the blank group, the model group exhibited significant knee joint degeneration, increased Lequesne MG score, K-L grading, Pelletier score, and Mankin score, elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and MMP13 in cartilage tissue, activation of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR phosphorylation along with increased mRNA expression levels, and elevated protein and mRNA expression levels of NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. Compared with the model group, these indicators were reversed in both the low-dose and high-dose DJD groups, with the high-dose group showing greater decline degree than the low-dose DJD group. However, compared with the high-dose DJD group, the improvements in knee joint degeneration were less pronounced in the high-dose DJD+740Y-P group, with increased Lequesne MG score, K-L grading, Pelletier score, Mankin score, elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-18, and MMP13, activation of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR phosphorylation along with increased mRNA expression, and increased protein and mRNA expression levels of NLRP3, caspase-1, and GSDMD. In conclusion, DJD is effective and safe in the treatment of KOA, and its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway-mediated pyroptosis in cartilage tissue, thereby improving knee joint bone structure, reducing the inflammatory response, and preventing cartilage matrix degradation.
Animals
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Rabbits
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TOR Serine-Threonine Kinases/genetics*
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Osteoarthritis, Knee/genetics*
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/genetics*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Male
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Disease Models, Animal
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Pyroptosis/drug effects*
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Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/genetics*
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Humans
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Female
4.Fresh Rehmanniae Radix regulates cholesterol metabolism disorder in mice fed with high-fat and high-cholesterol diet via FXR-mediated bile acid reabsorption.
Xin-Yu MENG ; Yan CHEN ; Li-Qin ZHAO ; Qing-Pu LIU ; Yong-Huan JIN ; Wei-Sheng FENG ; Xiao-Ke ZHENG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(6):1670-1679
This study aims to investigate the potential effect of the water extract of fresh Rehmanniae Radix on hypercholesterolemia in mice that was induced by a high-fat and high-cholesterol diet and explore its possible mechanism from bile acid reabsorption. Male C57BL/6 mice were randomly assigned into the following groups: control, model, low-and high-dose(4 and 8 g·kg~(-1), respectively) fresh Rehmanniae Radix, and positive drug(simvastatin, 0.05 g·kg~(-1)). Other groups except the control group were fed with a high-fat and high-cholesterol diet for 6 consecutive weeks to induce hypercholesterolemia. From the 6th week, mice were administrated with corresponding drugs daily via gavage for additional 6 weeks, while continuing to be fed with a high-fat and high-cholesterol diet. Serum levels of total cholesterol(TC), triglycerides(TG), low density lipoprotein-cholesterol(LDL-c), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol(HDL-c), and total bile acid(TBA), as well as liver TC and TG levels and fecal TBA level, were determined by commercial assay kits. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, oil red O staining, and transmission electron microscopy were performed to observe the pathological changes in the liver. Three livers samples were randomly selected from each of the control, model, and high-dose fresh Rehmanniae Radix groups for high-throughput transcriptome sequencing. Differentially expressed genes were mined and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis was performed to predict the key pathways and target genes of the water extract of fresh Rehmanniae Radix in the treatment of hypercholesterolemia. RT-qPCR was employed to measure the mRNA levels of cholesterol 7α-hydroxylase(CYP7A1) and cholesterol 27α-hydroxylase(CYP27A1) in the liver. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of CYP7A1 and CYP27A1 in the liver as well as farnesoid X receptor(FXR), apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter(ASBT), and ileum bile acid-binding protein(I-BABP) in the ileum. The results showed that the water extract of fresh Rehmanniae Radix significantly lowered the levels of TC and TG in the serum and liver, as well as the level of LDL-c in the serum. Conversely, it elevated the level of HDL-c in the serum and TBA in feces. No significant difference was observed in the level of TBA in the serum among groups. HE staining, oil red O staining, and transmission electron microscopy showed that the water extract reduced the accumulation of lipid droplets in the liver. Further mechanism studies revealed that the water extract of fresh Rehmanniae Radix significantly down-regulated the protein levels of FXR and bile acid reabsorption-related proteins ASBT and I-BABP. Additionally, it enhanced CYP7A1 and CYP27A1, the key enzymes involved in bile acid synthesis. Therefore, it is hypothesized that the water extract of fresh Rehmanniae Radix may exert an anti-hypercholesterolemic effect by regulating FXR/ASBT/I-BABP signaling, inhibiting bile acid reabsorption, and increasing bile acid excretion, thus facilitating the conversion of cholesterol to bile acids.
Animals
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Male
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Bile Acids and Salts/metabolism*
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Mice, Inbred C57BL
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Mice
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Diet, High-Fat/adverse effects*
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Cholesterol/metabolism*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Hypercholesterolemia/genetics*
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Receptors, Cytoplasmic and Nuclear/genetics*
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Rehmannia/chemistry*
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Liver/drug effects*
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Humans
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Cholesterol 7-alpha-Hydroxylase/genetics*
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Plant Extracts
5.Development and Initial Validation of the Multi-Dimensional Attention Rating Scale in Highly Educated Adults.
Xin-Yang ZHANG ; Karen SPRUYT ; Jia-Yue SI ; Lin-Lin ZHANG ; Ting-Ting WU ; Yan-Nan LIU ; Di-Ga GAN ; Yu-Xin HU ; Si-Yu LIU ; Teng GAO ; Yi ZHONG ; Yao GE ; Zhe LI ; Zi-Yan LIN ; Yan-Ping BAO ; Xue-Qin WANG ; Yu-Feng WANG ; Lin LU
Chinese Medical Sciences Journal 2025;40(2):100-110
OBJECTIVES:
To report the development, validation, and findings of the Multi-dimensional Attention Rating Scale (MARS), a self-report tool crafted to evaluate six-dimension attention levels.
METHODS:
The MARS was developed based on Classical Test Theory (CTT). Totally 202 highly educated healthy adult participants were recruited for reliability and validity tests. Reliability was measured using Cronbach's alpha and test-retest reliability. Structural validity was explored using principal component analysis. Criterion validity was analyzed by correlating MARS scores with the Toronto Hospital Alertness Test (THAT), the Attentional Control Scale (ACS), and the Attention Network Test (ANT).
RESULTS:
The MARS comprises 12 items spanning six distinct dimensions of attention: focused attention, sustained attention, shifting attention, selective attention, divided attention, and response inhibition.As assessed by six experts, the content validation index (CVI) was 0.95, the Cronbach's alpha for the MARS was 0.78, and the test-retest reliability was 0.81. Four factors were identified (cumulative variance contribution rate 68.79%). The total score of MARS was correlated positively with THAT (r = 0.60, P < 0.01) and ACS (r = 0.78, P < 0.01) and negatively with ANT's reaction time for alerting (r = -0.31, P = 0.049).
CONCLUSIONS
The MARS can reliably and validly assess six-dimension attention levels in real-world settings and is expected to be a new tool for assessing multi-dimensional attention impairments in different mental disorders.
Humans
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Adult
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Male
;
Attention/physiology*
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Reproducibility of Results
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Young Adult
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Psychometrics
6.Exploring urban versus rural disparities in atrial fibrillation: prevalence and management trends among elderly Chinese in a screening study.
Wei ZHANG ; Yi CHEN ; Lei-Xiao HU ; Jia-Hui XIA ; Xiao-Fei YE ; Wen-Yuan-Yue WANG ; Xin-Yu WANG ; Quan-Yong XIANG ; Qin TAN ; Xiao-Long WANG ; Xiao-Min YANG ; De-Chao ZHAO ; Xin CHEN ; Yan LI ; Ji-Guang WANG ; FOR THE IMPRESSION INVESTIGATORS AND COORDINATORS
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(2):246-254
BACKGROUND:
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia in the elderly. This study aimed to evaluate urban-rural disparities in its prevalence and management in elderly Chinese.
METHODS:
Consecutive participants aged ≥ 65 years attending outpatient clinics were enrolled for AF screening using handheld single-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) from April 2017 to December 2022. Each ECG rhythm strip was reviewed from the research team. AF or uninterpretable single-lead ECGs were referred for 12-lead ECG. Primary study outcome comparison was between rural and urban areas for the prevalence of AF. The Student's t-test was used to compare mean values of clinical characteristics between rural and urban participants, while the Pearson's chi-square test was used to compare between-group proportions. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the association between AF and various patient characteristics.
RESULTS:
The 29,166 study participants included 13,253 men (45.4%) and had a mean age of 72.2 years. The 7073 rural participants differed significantly (P ≤ 0.02) from the 22,093 urban participants in several major characteristics, such as older age, greater body mass index, and so on. The overall prevalence of AF was 4.6% (n = 1347). AF was more prevalent in 7073 rural participants than 22,093 urban participants (5.6% vs. 4.3%, P < 0.01), before and after adjustment for age, body mass index, blood pressure, pulse rate, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and prior medical history. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified overweight/obesity (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.17-1.54) in urban areas and cigarette smoking (OR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.20-2.17) and alcohol consumption (OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.04-1.93) in rural areas as specific risk factors for prevalent AF. In patients with known AF in urban areas (n = 781) and rural areas (n = 338), 60.6% and 45.9%, respectively, received AF treatment (P < 0.01), and only 22.4% and 17.2%, respectively, received anticoagulation therapy (P = 0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
In China, there are urban-rural disparities in AF in the elderly, with a higher prevalence and worse management in rural areas than urban areas. Our study findings provide insight for health policymakers to consider urban-rural disparity in the prevention and treatment of AF.
7.Mechanism of Reactive Oxygen/Nitrogen Species in Liver Ischemia-Reperfusion Injury and Preventive Effect of Chinese Medicine.
Lei GAO ; Yun-Jia LI ; Jia-Min ZHAO ; Yu-Xin LIAO ; Meng-Chen QIN ; Jun-Jie LI ; Hao SHI ; Nai-Kei WONG ; Zhi-Ping LYU ; Jian-Gang SHEN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(5):462-473
Liver ischemia-reperfusion injury (LIRI) is a pathological process involving multiple injury factors and cell types, with different stages. Currently, protective drugs targeting a single condition are limited in efficacy, and interventions on immune cells will also be accompanied by a series of side effects. In the current bottleneck research stage, the multi-target and obvious clinical efficacy of Chinese medicine (CM) is expected to become a breakthrough point in the research and development of new drugs. In this review, we summarize the roles of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) in various stages of hepatic ischemia-reperfusion and on various types of cells. Combined with the current research progress in reducing ROS/RNS with CM, new therapies and mechanisms for the treatment of hepatic ischemia-reperfusion are discussed.
Reperfusion Injury/drug therapy*
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Reactive Oxygen Species/metabolism*
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Reactive Nitrogen Species/metabolism*
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Humans
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Liver/drug effects*
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Animals
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
8.Effectiveness of Acupuncture in Improving Quality of Life for Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Xin YU ; Si-Yao GONG ; Qin LUO ; Gui-Xing XU ; Hao TIAN ; Qian LI ; Ming CHEN ; Sha YANG ; Shu-Guang YU
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(4):360-371
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the effect of acupuncture on advanced cancer patients by meta-analysis.
METHODS:
Nine databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, China Science and Technology Journal Database, and WanFang Data) were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on acupuncture in advanced cancer patients published from inception to February 13, 2023 and updated to June 1, 2023. Primary outcomes were quality of life (QOL), while secondary outcomes were pain, fatigue, and adverse events (side effects). Data synthesis was performed using RevMan V.5.3 to calculate pooled effect sizes. RoB-2 was used for the risk of bias, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) tool.
RESULTS:
Totally 17 RCTs involving 1,178 participants were included, 15 of which were pooled for meta-analysis. Most studies demonstrated some concern for the overall risk of bias. The pooled data indicated that acupuncture was associated with improved QOL [mean difference (MD)=6.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.09 to 8.26], pain (MD=-1.18, 95% CI -2.28 to -0.08), and adverse events (risk ratio=0.30, 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.57) compared with control groups. Fatigue outcome was not included. Heterogeneity was substantial, and GRADE evidence was very low for both QOL and pain.
CONCLUSIONS
Acupuncture could benefit patients with advanced cancer and is considered safe compared with usual care. However, the evidence regarding QOL and pain outcomes requires further validation. It is crucial to encourage the development of high-quality studies to strengthen this evidence. (Registry No. CRD42023423539).
Humans
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Acupuncture Therapy
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Neoplasms/therapy*
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Quality of Life
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Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
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Treatment Outcome
9.Expert consensus on non-surgical treatment for acute lateral ankle sprain (version 2025)
Hui CHE ; Wenge DING ; Shiming FENG ; Xueping GU ; Qinwei GUO ; Jianchao GUI ; Yinghui HUA ; Yuefeng HAO ; Qinglin HAN ; Bo HU ; Xiaojun LIANG ; Guoping LI ; Yunxia LI ; Qi LI ; Yanlin LI ; Xin MA ; Jun MA ; Xudong MIAO ; Jianzhong QIN ; Xiaodong QIN ; Xu SUN ; Kefu SUN ; Weidong SONG ; Dai SHI ; Zhongmin SHI ; Youlun TAO ; Xu WANG ; Youhua WANG ; Liheng WANG ; Anli WANG ; Aiguo WANG ; Weidong WU ; Yajun XU ; Weidong XU ; Renjie XU ; Yongsheng XU ; Tengbo YU ; Lianqi YAN ; Xiaodong YUAN ; Yuan ZHU ; Mingzhu ZHANG ; Hongtao ZHANG ; Xintao ZHANG ; Xiaofei ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(6):517-529
Acute lateral ankle sprain (ALAS) is one of the most common sport injuries, with high incidence, recurrence and disability rates. Currently, exercise rehabilitation-based non-surgical treatment is the primary management approach for ALAS. However, there remain improper practices such as excessive immobilization or uncontrolled activity, which contribute to recurrent sprains and chronic ankle instability, significantly impairing patients′ athletic function and quality of life. To standardize the non-surgical management of ALAS, improve the cure rates, and reduce the recurrence and disability rates, Chinese Sports Rehabilitation Medicine Training Project of Chinese Medical Association, Foot and Ankle Basics and Orthopedics Group, Orthopedic Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, and Sports Medicine Branch of Jiangsu Medical Association organized relevant experts to formulate Expert consensus on non-surgical treatment for acute lateral ankle sprain ( version 2025), following the principles of scientific vigor, practicality, and innovation. Thirteen recommendations were proposed for standardized treatment protocols across different healing phases, aiming to provide references for standard management of ALAS and improve the therapeutic outcomes.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

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