Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

Background/Aims: Liver transplantation (LT) following total hepatectomy is a life-saving treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The HCC recurrence after LT hinders the effectiveness of the procedure. The objective of this study is to develop a pre-operative risk stratification model based on a liquid biopsy. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive multi-omics study of 260 HCC patients from three centers, including clinical data, low-coverage whole-genome sequencing of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from plasma, as well as whole-exome, single-nucleus RNA, and spatial transcriptomics from matched tumor and non-tumor tissues. Results: We identified cfDNA-derived copy number alteration (CNA) signatures associated with post-transplant recurrence. By integrating cfDNA-derived CNA profiles with single-cell transcriptomic data, we traced recurrence-associated cfDNA to a distinct subpopulation of malignant cells within the primary tumor. These cells were embedded in a pro-metastatic microenvironment of specialized endothelial subtypes and cancer-associated fibroblasts. Notably, most recurrence-associated lesions were detectable in cfDNA prior to liver transplantation (LT). Building on these insights, we developed the ZJU Criteria based on CNA fragments and tumor markers, a pre-LT risk prediction tool that integrates conventional clinical factors with cfDNA-derived CNA signatures, and validated it using internal and independent external cohorts. Conclusion Our findings suggest that post-transplant recurrence commonly originates from advanced subclones that emerge late during tumor evolution. The ZJU Criteria provides an accurate, non-invasive strategy that significantly improves pre-LT risk stratification and clinical decision-making for patients with HCC.

Background/Aims: Biliary tract cancer (BTC) frequently harbors KRAS mutations, which are associated with resistance to traditional treatment and a poor prognosis. Synthetic lethality (SL) strategy may provide other targets of KRAS. Therefore, we aim to identify and validate potential therapeutic targets of KRAS for the treatment of BTC via SL. Methods: The dependency (DepMap) projects were used to predict the synthetic lethal gene of KRAS. FDA-approved anticancer drug library was applied to screen potential drugs effective against KRAS-mutant BTC. Furthermore, the synthetic lethal effects or corresponding mechanisms of potential genes and drugs on BTC were investigated using KRAS-mutant and KRAS-wild type BTC cell lines, patient-derived xenografts (PDX), and KRAS oncogene-driven tumor models, as well as other KRAS-mutant cancer cell lines. Results: Initially, we discovered that the loss of GATA2 reduced the viability of KRAS-mutant but not KRAS-wild-type BTC. Subsequently, the drug library screened out disulfiram, which primarily exerts a synthetic lethal effect by inhibiting interleukin-1β (IL-1β) in KRAS-mutant BTC. Mechanistically, GATA2 specifically enhanced the transcription of IL-1β to promote NF-κB signaling in KRAS-mutant BTC. IL-1β inhibition phenocopied GATA2 deficiency, leading to reduced KRAS-mutant BTC viability. These synthetically lethal effects were confirmed using PDX, a KRAS oncogene-driven tumor model, as well as in other KRAS-mutant cancer cell lines. Conclusions In summary, these results indicate that inhibiting GATA2/IL1β could be a therapeutic strategy in KRAS-mutant BTC and potentially other cancers.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality, characterized by poor prognosis due to its high proliferative and invasive potential. Tumor metabolic reprogramming, particularly involving glucose metabolism, is essential for tumor survival. This study investigates the role of the Hippo pathway effector transcriptional co-activator with PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) in regulating gluconeogenesis and promoting tumorigenesis in HCC. Methods: TAZ expression in HCC was analyzed using The Cancer Genome Atlas data and validated in clinical samples and cell lines. TAZ was overexpressed or silenced in HCC cell lines to evaluate its effects on cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration, and invasion. The expression and prognostic relevance of the gluconeogenesis-related genes phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 1 (PCK1) and glucose-6-phosphatase (G6PC) were examined, along with their correlation with TAZ expression. Tumor growth was assessed in nude mice. Interactions between TAZ and the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) were investigated using co-immunoprecipitation, immunofluorescence, and chromatin immunoprecipitation assays. Results: TAZ was significantly upregulated in HCC tissues and cell lines. TAZ overexpression enhanced proliferation, reduced apoptosis, and promoted migration and invasion. In contrast, PCK1 and G6PC were downregulated in HCC and showed a negative correlation with TAZ expression. Conclusion TAZ modulates gluconeogenesis and accelerates tumor growth, whereas its knockdown attenuates tumor progression. TAZ interacts with GR, suppressing its transcriptional activity on gluconeogenic gene promoters.

Objective To investigate the etiology and treatment of dysuria shortly after holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), so as to improve the therapeutic efficacy. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1361 BPH patients who received HoLEP at our hospital during Mar. 2018 and Mar. 2025. All patients underwent ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), urethral probing or radiography, cystourethroscopy, and urodynamic testing. The causes, treatments and prognosis of dysuria after operation were summarized. Results ninety-eight patients (7.2%) experienced dysuria within 3 months after surgery, and all patients received initial urethral dilation. Among the 62 cases with urethral stricture, 28 were treated with urethral dilation (average of 8 sessions), 16 underwent external urethral incision, 8 underwent anterior urethroplasty, and 10 underwent transurethral plasma incision for urethral stricture. Of the 12 cases with residual prostate tissue, 5 underwent urethral plasma prostatectomy and 7 received medication. All of the 12 cases with bladder neck contracture underwent transurethral plasma incision of the bladder neck and local drug injection. Five cases with intravesical blood clots underwent urethral blood clot irrigation, 2 of which developed active bleeding and then underwent electrocoagulation. Four cases with detrusor dysfunction had catheters re-indwelled for one week followed by medication. Two cases with stone and one case with tissue fragment impacted in the urethra underwent urethral holmium lithotripsy and cystoscopic removal. All patients underwent reoperation successfully and experienced complete resolution or significant improvement of urinary difficulties. Conclusion A certain proportion of patients experience dysuria after HoLEP, with diverse etiologies. The combination of prevention and treatment can reduce the incidence of dysuria.

Objective To compare the clinical efficacy and safety differences between the triple immunosuppressive regimen of mizoribine (MZR) or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) combined with tacrolimus (Tac) and glucocorticoids of kidney transplant recipients in one year after transplantation. Methods A single-center retrospective cohort study design was adopted. The clinical data of 156 patients who underwent the first allogeneic kidney transplantation at the Third Hospital of Peking University from January 2022 to December 2024 were included. The patients were divided into the MZR group (78 cases) and the MMF group (78 cases) based on the initial immunosuppressive regimen after transplantation. The baseline data, medication use in one year after transplantation, blood routine indicators, adverse events and clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups. For the repeated-measurement longitudinal data, repeated-measurement analysis of variance was used to evaluate the main effects of the groups, time and their interaction effects. Results At the primary efficacy endpoint, there were no statistically significant differences in the one-year survival rate, graft survival rate and incidence of acute rejection between the two groups (all P > 0.05). In terms of medication patterns and laboratory test indicators, there were significant time main effects and "time × group" interaction effects for Tac dosage (all P < 0.05). The Tac dosage in the MZR group was lower than that in the MMF group from 2 to 3 months after transplantation, and it was higher in the MZR group than in the MMF group from 7 to 12 months and one year after transplantation. White blood cell count in the MZR group was higher at one month after transplantation, and the platelet count was higher one year after transplantation (all P < 0.05). In terms of infection, the incidence of novel coronavirus and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia infections in the MZR group was lower (all P < 0.05). In terms of metabolic indicators, the post-transplantation uric acid level was better in the MZR group than in the MMF group, but the total cholesterol level was higher one year after transplantation (all P < 0.05). In terms of liver function, there was a brief and mild increase in transaminase in the early stage after transplantation in the MZR group. Conclusions During the one-year follow-up after transplantation, both the MZR and MMF regimens demonstrate comparable immunosuppressive efficacy and overall safety in Chinese kidney transplant recipients. The MZR regimen shows clear advantages in reducing specific infection risks, alleviating bone marrow suppression and improving uric acid metabolism, but its potential impact on blood lipids needs to be monitored. Therefore, the MZR regimen may be an effective and safe alternative immunosuppressive option for kidney transplant recipients, especially those with high infection risk, poor hematological tolerance, or comorbid hyperuricemia.

ObjectiveTo investigate the associations of multiple glycolipid metabolic indicators and their cumulative abnormality burden with incident colorectal cancer risk in a general population-based prospective cohort, and to examine the mediating role of glycolipid metabolic abnormalities in the relationships between smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and colorectal cancer incidence. MethodsA total of 17 897 eligible participants recruited from the Taizhou Cohort between 2011 and 2014 were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the associations of conventional and derived glycolipid indicators, as well as a glycolipid abnormality index constructed from total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, and insulin, with incident colorectal cancer risk. Restricted cubic spline models were applied to evaluate dose-response relationships for major indicators. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to compare predictive performance across indicators. Mediation analyses were conducted to assess the mediating effects of the glycolipid abnormality index on the associations of smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity with colorectal cancer incidence. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 11.2 years, 102 incident colorectal cancer cases were identified, with an incidence density of 51.2 per 100 000 person-years. After adjustment for potential confounders, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses showed that decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with a 1.74-fold higher risk of colorectal cancer (HR=1.74, 95%CI: 1.03‒2.95), elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with a 1.78-fold higher risk (HR=1.78, 95%CI: 1.05‒3.02), and abnormal fasting plasma glucose was associated with a 1.86-fold higher risk (HR=1.86, 95%CI: 1.15‒3.02). Triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose showed an approximately linear increasing association with colorectal cancer risk in multivariable restricted cubic spline models. The glycolipid abnormality index showed a clear gradient association with colorectal cancer risk; participants with three or more abnormal indicators had a 3.08-fold higher risk than those without abnormalities (HR=3.08, 95%CI: 1.60‒5.92). The area under the curve was 0.795, higher than that of individual glycolipid indicators and other combined indices, and gender-stratified analyses showed generally consistent patterns. Glycolipid metabolic abnormalities partially mediated the associations of smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity with colorectal cancer incidence, with mediation proportions of 8.33%, 9.45%, and 9.04%, respectively. ConclusionGlycolipid metabolic abnormalities are associated with an increased risk of incident colorectal cancer. The glycolipid abnormality index shows an increasing relationship with colorectal cancer risk and demonstrates better discrimination, and it partially mediates the associations of smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity with colorectal cancer incidence in the overall population.

The lung collaterals form a network that branches from the lung meridian, traversing the lung system and extending across the body′s surface. Lung collateral disease refers to the structural alterations or dysfunction in these collaterals caused by external or internal pathogens. Research into the structural and physiological functions of children′s lung collaterals, as well as the pathogenesis and syndrome differentiation for treating lung collateral diseases in children, holds significant value in guiding the prevention and treatment of pediatric respiratory conditions. Drawing on the theory of collateral disease, the clinical insights of both historical and contemporary physicians, and modern research findings—while considering the unique physiological and pathological characteristics of children′s respiratory systems—this study provides a foundational summary of the morphology and spatial distribution of children′s lung collaterals. The characteristics of these collaterals are highlighted as thin, sparse, short, narrow, brittle, and tender. From this structural understanding, the unique physiological functions of children′s lung collaterals are analyzed. The study further explores the interactions between pathogenic factors and lung collaterals, elucidating the pathogenesis and progression of children′s lung collateral diseases. It proposes treatment principles centered on "seeking treatment in the collaterals and employing the method of unblocking collaterals, "which align with the unique features of pediatric lung collaterals. Common treatment approaches, and relevant prescriptions for managing these diseases are summarized. This paper lays the foundation for a theoretical system encompassing the structure, function, pathogenesis, and syndrome differentiation for treating children′s lung collateral diseases. It offers valuable insights for the clinical diagnosis and management of pediatric respiratory diseases linked to collateral dysfunction and serves as a reference for the systematic development of a broader theoretical framework for children′s collateral diseases.