1.Logic-gated tumor-microenvironment nanoamplifier enables targeted delivery of CRISPR/Cas9 for multimodal cancer therapy.
Yongchun PAN ; Xiaowei LUAN ; Fei ZENG ; Xuyuan WANG ; Shurong QIN ; Qianglan LU ; Guanzhong HE ; Yanfeng GAO ; Xiaolian SUN ; Xin HAN ; Bangshun HE ; Yujun SONG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2024;14(2):795-807
Recent innovations in nanomaterials inspire abundant novel tumor-targeting CRISPR-based gene therapies. However, the therapeutic efficiency of traditional targeted nanotherapeutic strategies is limited by that the biomarkers vary in a spatiotemporal-dependent manner with tumor progression. Here, we propose a self-amplifying logic-gated gene editing strategy for gene/H2O2-mediated/starvation multimodal cancer therapy. In this approach, a hypoxia-degradable covalent-organic framework (COF) is synthesized to coat a-ZIF-8 in which glucose oxidase (GOx) and CRISPR system are packaged. To intensify intracellular redox dyshomeostasis, DNAzymes which can cleave catalase mRNA are loaded as well. When the nanosystem gets into the tumor, the weakly acidic and hypoxic microenvironment degrades the ZIF-8@COF to activate GOx, which amplifies intracellular H+ and hypoxia, accelerating the nanocarrier degradation to guarantee available CRISPR plasmid and GOx release in target cells. These tandem reactions deplete glucose and oxygen, leading to logic-gated-triggered gene editing as well as synergistic gene/H2O2-mediated/starvation therapy. Overall, this approach highlights the biocomputing-based CRISPR delivery and underscores the great potential of precise cancer therapy.
2.Erratum: Author correction to "Tumor-microenvironment activated duplex genome-editing nanoprodrug for sensitized near-infrared titania phototherapy" Acta Pharm Sin B (2022) 4224-4234.
Zekun LI ; Yongchun PAN ; Shiyu DU ; Yayao LI ; Chao CHEN ; Hongxiu SONG ; Yueyao WU ; Xiaowei LUAN ; Qin XU ; Xiaoxiang GUAN ; Yujun SONG ; Xin HAN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2024;14(2):897-899
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.apsb.2022.06.016.].
3.Construction, Activity Evaluation and Molecular Simulation Study of α-Naphthylthiol Amino Acid Esters as Novel LSD1 Inhibitors
Zhonghua LI ; Zhenzhen WANG ; Tingting QIN ; Pan WANG ; Kai HU ; Zhishen XIE ; Lixin LI ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Junying SONG ; Weihong REN ; Jinlian MA
Chinese Journal of Modern Applied Pharmacy 2024;41(3):295-302
OBJECTIVE
To design and synthesize novel α-naphthylthiol amino acid ester lysine specific demethylase 1(LSD1) inhibitors, evaluate their inhibitory activity with selectivity against LSD1, and explore their binding mechanism through molecular docking and dynamics simulation.
METHODS
Based on the binding mode of hit compound 3a with LSD1, the α- naphthyl mercapto amino acid ethyl ester small molecule compound were designed by fixing the planar hydrophobic naphthyl ring in the structure, while introducing hydrophilic amino fragment, and they were prepared through a multi-component one-pot cascade reaction. All the compounds were evaluated for their inhibitory activity against LSD1 at concentrations of 5.0 and 1.0 μmol·L–1 using the LSD1 screening platform of research group. The most potent compound was tested for its IC50 value and enzyme selectivity over MAO-A and MAO-B, and its binding mode was investigated through molecular docking and dynamics simulation.
RESULTS
A total of 13 compounds were obtained, all of which exhibited significant inhibitory effects on LSD1. Among them, nine compounds showed an inhibitory rate of over 50.0% against LSD1 at a concentration of 1.0 μmol·L–1, while compound 3l displaying the best activity with an IC50 value of 0.17 μmol·L–1, 174 times higher than the positive control. It also showed excellent selectivity towards MAO-A and MAO-B. Molecular docking and dynamics simulations indicated that compound 3l inhibited the activity of LSD1 through multiple interactions.
CONCLUSION
The structures of α-naphthylthiol amino acid ester can serve as lead compounds or active fragments, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent design of LSD1 inhibitors based on structure-oriented drug design.
4.Salvianolic Acid F Regulates Bax/Caspase-3/GSDME Signaling Pathway to Inhibit Pyroptosis of HK-2 Cells
Xiancong SHI ; Zhishen XIE ; Liang ZHAO ; Jiajun WANG ; Yafei DUAN ; Pan WANG ; Zhenqiang ZHANG ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Jiangyan XU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2024;30(9):56-64
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of salvianolic acid F (Sal F) in repairing the high glucose-induced injury in human kidney-2 (HK-2) cells via the B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2)-associated X protein (Bax)/cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase 3 (Caspase-3)/gasdermin-E (GSDME) pathway. MethodThe cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) was used to measure the relative viability of HK-2 cells exposed to high glucose and different concentrations (2.5, 5, 10, 20 μmol·L-1) of Sal F and the relative viability of HK-2 cells treated with Sal F for different time periods. The levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) in the supernatant of the cell culture were measured by the LDH assay kit and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit, respectively. Flow cytometry combined with Annexin V-FITC/propidium iodide (PI) and Hoechst 33342/PI staining was employed to reveal the proportion of PI-positive HK-2 cells exposed to high glucose. Western blotting was employed to determine the protein levels of Bax, Bcl-2, cytochrome C, cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase (Caspase)-9, Caspase-3, and GSDME in the HK-2 cells exposed to high glucose and treated with Sal F. The 2,7-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate fluorescence probe (DCFH-DA) and mitochondrial membrane potential assay kit (JC-1) were used to determine the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the mitochondrial membrane potential in the HK-2 cells exposed to high glucose and treated with Sal F. ResultCompared with the blank group, the model group showed decreased cell viability (P<0.01), elevated levels LDH and IL-1β, increased proportion of PI-positive cells (P<0.01), up-regulated protein levels of Bax, cytochrome C, Caspase-9, Caspase-3, and GSDME (P<0.01), down-regulated protein level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01), decreased mitochondrial membrane potential, and excessive ROS accumulation. Compared with the model group, Sal F repaired the high glucose-induced injury in HK-2 cells (P<0.05), lowered the levels of LDH and IL-1β (P<0.05, P<0.01), and decreased the proportion of PI-positive cells (P<0.01). In addition, Sal F down-regulated the protein levels of Bax, cytochrome C, Caspase-9, Caspase-3, and GSDME and up-regulated the protein level of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01), increased the mitochondrial membrane potential, and decreased the accumulation of ROS in HK-2 cells. ConclusionSal F can reduce the production of ROS, restore the balance of mitochondrial membrane potential, and inhibit pyroptosis via the Bax/Caspase-3/GSDME signaling pathway to repair the high glucose-induced injury in HK-2 cells.
5.Promotion effect of chemokine CCL19-induced macrophage M1 polarization on chronic pancreatitis in mice and its mechanism
Lianzhi CUI ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Yue ZHAI ; Yue PAN ; Xiuyan YU ; Hua ZHU
Journal of Jilin University(Medicine Edition) 2024;50(6):1587-1596
Objective:To discuss the promotion effect of chemokine C-C motif ligand 19(CCL19)induced macrophage M1 polarization on chronic pancreatitis of the mice,and to clarify its related mechanism.Methods:Ten male C57BL/6N mice were selected,and the pancreatic acinar cells and peritoneal macrophages were extracted from these mice to construct the macrophage-acinar cell co-culture system.The co-culture system cells were divided into control group,model group,and small interfering RNA CCL19(si-CCL19)group.The morphology of the acinar cells in various groups were observed under microscope.Forty mice were randomly selected and divided into normal group and chronic pancreatitis group,and there were 20 mice in each group.HE staining was used to observe the pathomorphology of pancreatic tissue of the mice in two groups;immunofluorescence staining was used to observe the expressions of cytokeratin 19(CK19),amylase,M1 macrophage-related markers inducible nitric oxide synthase(iNOS),and F4/80 in pancreatic tissue of the mice in two groups and morphology of follicular cells and the expressions of CK19,amylase in the co-culture system cells in various groups;enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)was used to detect the levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α),interleukin(IL)-6,and IL-1β in serum of the mice in two groups and in the co-culture system cells in various groups;immunohistochemistry was used to observe the expression of CCL19 protein in pancreatic tissue of the mice in two groups;Western blotting method was used to detect the expression levels of CCL19 protein and two nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB)signaling pathway-related proteins P65,phosphorylate P65(p-P65),kappa B inhibitor of kinase α/β(IKKα/β),phosphorylated IKKα/β(p-IKKα/β),IkBα,phosphorylated IκBα(p-IκBα)in pancreatic tissue of the mice in two groups and in the co-culture system cells in various groups.Results:The HE staining results showed that the acinar cells in pancreatic tissue of the mice in normal group were tightly arranged;compared with normal group,the acinar cells of the mice in chronic pancreatitis group showed obvious vacuolation and acinar cell ductal metaplasia,indicating successful preparation of the mouse pancreatitis model.The immunofluorescence staining results showed that compared with control group,the acinar cells in model group exhibited severe vacuolation,the CK19 expression was significantly increased,and the amylase expression was significantly decreased;compared with model group,the acinar cell ductal metaplasia in si-CCL19 group was decreased,the CK19 expression was significantly decreased,and the amylase expression was significantly increased;compared with normal group,the expression of amylase in pancreatic tissue of the mice in chronic pancreatitis group was significantly decreased,while the expressions of CK19 and M1 macrophage markers iNOS and F4/80 were significantly increased.The ELISA results showed that compared with normal group,the serum levels of TNF-α,IL-6,and IL-1β of the mice in chronic pancreatitis group were significantly increased(P<0.05);compared with control group,the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,and IL-1β in the cells in model group were significantly increased(P<0.05);compared with model group,the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,and IL-1β in the cells in si-CCL19 group were significantly decreased(P<0.05).The immunohistochemistry results showed that compared with normal group,the expression of CCL19 protein in pancreatic tissue of the mice in chronic pancreatitis group was significantly increased.The Western blotting results showed that compared with normal group,the expression levels of CCL19 protein and NF-κB signaling pathway-related proteins p-P65,p-IKKα/β,and p-IκBα in pancreatic tissue of the mice in chronic pancreatitis group were significantly increased(P<0.05);compared with control group,the expression levels of CCL19,p-IKKα/β,p-P65,and p-IκBα proteins in the cells in model group were significantly increased(P<0.05);compared with model group,the expression levels of CCL19,p-IKKα/β,p-P65,and p-IκBα proteins in the cells in si-CCL19 group were decreased(P<0.05).Conclusion:CCL19 promotes the macrophage M1 polarization through the NF-κB signaling pathway,induces the formation of inflammatory microenvironment,and promotes the occurrence and development of pancreatitis.
6.Surveillance of bacterial resistance in tertiary hospitals across China:results of CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program in 2022
Yan GUO ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Fu WANG ; Xiaofei JIANG ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Fengbo ZHANG ; Ping JI ; Yi XIE ; Yuling XIAO ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Jingyong SUN ; Qing CHEN ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Bin SHAN ; Yunmin XU ; Sufang GUO ; Yanyan WANG ; Lianhua WEI ; Keke LI ; Hong ZHANG ; Fen PAN ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Wen'en LIU ; Yanming LI ; Yan JIN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Xuesong XU ; Wei LI ; Shanmei WANG ; Yafei CHU ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Shuping ZHOU ; Yan ZHOU ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Fang DONG ; Zhiyong LÜ ; Fangfang HU ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Jihong LI ; Qian SUN ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanqing ZHENG ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Xuefei HU ; Wenhui HUANG ; Juan LI ; Quangui SHI ; Juan YANG ; Abulimiti REZIWAGULI ; Lili HUANG ; Xuejun SHAO ; Xiaoyan REN ; Dong LI ; Qun ZHANG ; Xue CHEN ; Rihai LI ; Jieli XU ; Kaijie GAO ; Lu XU ; Lin LIN ; Zhuo ZHANG ; Jianlong LIU ; Min FU ; Yinghui GUO ; Wenchao ZHANG ; Zengguo WANG ; Kai JIA ; Yun XIA ; Shan SUN ; Huimin YANG ; Yan MIAO ; Mingming ZHOU ; Shihai ZHANG ; Hongjuan LIU ; Nan CHEN ; Chan LI ; Jilu SHEN ; Wanqi MEN ; Peng WANG ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Yanyan LIU ; Yong AN
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2024;24(3):277-286
Objective To monitor the susceptibility of clinical isolates to antimicrobial agents in tertiary hospitals in major regions of China in 2022.Methods Clinical isolates from 58 hospitals in China were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility using a unified protocol based on disc diffusion method or automated testing systems.Results were interpreted using the 2022 Clinical &Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)breakpoints.Results A total of 318 013 clinical isolates were collected from January 1,2022 to December 31,2022,of which 29.5%were gram-positive and 70.5%were gram-negative.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant strains in Staphylococcus aureus,Staphylococcus epidermidis and other coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species(excluding Staphylococcus pseudintermedius and Staphylococcus schleiferi)was 28.3%,76.7%and 77.9%,respectively.Overall,94.0%of MRSA strains were susceptible to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and 90.8%of MRSE strains were susceptible to rifampicin.No vancomycin-resistant strains were found.Enterococcus faecalis showed significantly lower resistance rates to most antimicrobial agents tested than Enterococcus faecium.A few vancomycin-resistant strains were identified in both E.faecalis and E.faecium.The prevalence of penicillin-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae was 94.2%in the isolates from children and 95.7%in the isolates from adults.The resistance rate to carbapenems was lower than 13.1%in most Enterobacterales species except for Klebsiella,21.7%-23.1%of which were resistant to carbapenems.Most Enterobacterales isolates were highly susceptible to tigecycline,colistin and polymyxin B,with resistance rates ranging from 0.1%to 13.3%.The prevalence of meropenem-resistant strains decreased from 23.5%in 2019 to 18.0%in 2022 in Pseudomonas aeruginosa,and decreased from 79.0%in 2019 to 72.5%in 2022 in Acinetobacter baumannii.Conclusions The resistance of clinical isolates to the commonly used antimicrobial agents is still increasing in tertiary hospitals.However,the prevalence of important carbapenem-resistant organisms such as carbapenem-resistant K.pneumoniae,P.aeruginosa,and A.baumannii showed a downward trend in recent years.This finding suggests that the strategy of combining antimicrobial resistance surveillance with multidisciplinary concerted action works well in curbing the spread of resistant bacteria.
7.Observation on the therapeutic efficacy of warming needle therapy combined with Tuina in the treatment of cervical vertigo accompanied by anxiety state
You GU ; Jiawei HU ; Yuehua YAN ; Guoliang PAN ; Xiaowei DONG ; Liang ZENG ; Xiehe KONG
Journal of Acupuncture and Tuina Science 2024;22(3):239-245
Objective:To observe the effect of warming needle therapy combined with Tuina(Chinese therapeutic massage)on the clinical symptoms and anxiety state of patients with cervical vertigo accompanied by anxiety. Methods:Seventy patients with cervical vertigo accompanied by anxiety state were divided into an observation group and a control group using the random number table method,with 35 patients in each group.In addition to disease education,the observation group was treated with warming needle therapy and Tuina 3 times a week,and the control group was treated with betahistine mesylate tablets orally 3 times a day.Both groups were treated for 4 weeks.The changes in the scores of the evaluation scale for cervical vertigo(ESCV),self-rating anxiety scale(SAS),and Hamilton anxiety rating scale(HAMA)were compared between the two groups after treatment. Results:One case in the observation group dropped out due to failure to cooperate with the treatment during the study.In the treatment group,the total effective rate and the cured plus markedly effective rate were 94.1%and 50.0%,respectively,and 88.6%and 8.6%in the control group,respectively;the differences between the two groups were statistically significant(P<0.05).After treatment,the ESCV,SAS,and HAMA scores of both groups decreased significantly compared with those before treatment(P<0.01),and the scores of the observation group were lower than those of the control group(P<0.01 or P<0.05). Conclusion:Warming needle therapy combined with Tuina can significantly improve the clinical symptoms of patients with cervical vertigo accompanied by anxiety state.
8.Modulation effects of pressing manipulation on local inflammatory responses and ERK/NF-κB pathway in trigger point model rats
Dan LIU ; Quanrui JIANG ; Xiaoxia KUANG ; Jieling PAN ; Li ZENG ; Jiangshan LI ; Xiaowei LIU ; WU LI ; Yanping YANG
Journal of Acupuncture and Tuina Science 2024;22(5):371-380
Objective:To investigate the mechanism of trigger point deactivation induced by pressing manipulation in a rat model and to explore its potential regulation of the inflammatory response through the extracellular signal-regulated kinase(ERK)/nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB)pathway. Methods:Fifty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into a blank group,a model group,a pressing manipulation group,an ERK agonist group,and a pressing manipulation+ERK agonist group,with 10 rats in each group.Except for the blank group,rats in other groups were used to establish the trigger point rat model using the blunt blow combined with the eccentric exercise method.The pressing manipulation group underwent pressing manipulation intervention at the trigger points.The ERK agonist group received an injection of recombinant human epidermal growth factor via the tail vein.The pressing manipulation+ERK agonist group received interventions from both the pressing manipulation and ERK agonist groups.The pressure pain threshold(PPT)was measured by a mechanical pain threshold detector before and after the intervention.The histological changes were evaluated by hematoxylin-eosin staining after the intervention;the expression levels of ERK,phosphorylated ERK(p-ERK),NF-κB p65(p65),phosphorylated NF-κB p65(p-p65),and phosphorylated NF-κB inhibitor(p-IκB)were detected by Western blotting;the levels of interleukin(IL)-1β,IL-6,and tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-α were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results:The PPT increased(P<0.05);the inflammatory cells disappeared;the ratios of p-ERK/ERK,p-p65/p65,and p-IκB/β-actin,also the levels of IL-1β,IL-6,and TNF-α all decreased in the pressing manipulation group after the intervention compared with the model group(P<0.05).The PPT decreased significantly(P<0.05),the inflammatory cell presence increased,and the ratios of p-ERK/ERK and p-p65/p65 were elevated(P<0.05);additionally,the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α were significantly higher in the pressing manipulation+ERK agonist group compared with the pressing manipulation group(P<0.05).The PPT was significantly lower(P<0.05),the inflammatory cell count was higher,the ratios of p-ERK/ERK and p-IκB/β-actin and the levels of IL-1β and TNF-α were significantly higher in the ERK agonist group compared with the pressing manipulation+ERK agonist group(P<0.05). Conclusion:Pressing manipulation can effectively alleviate inflammation and pain in trigger point model rats,potentially by inhibiting the ERK/NF-κB signaling pathway.
9.Study on the mechanism of Yishen tongluo formula improving abnormal lipid metabolism based on SREBPs pathway
Liang ZHAO ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Zhishen XIE ; Shixie XIANG ; Yafei DUAN ; Gai GAO ; Pan WANG ; Huifen MA ; Yiran SUN ; Jie CHEN ; Jiangyan XU ; Zhenqiang ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2023;34(23):2835-2840
OBJECTIVE To explore the mechanism of Yishen tongluo formula (YSTLF) in improving abnormal lipid metabolism based on the sterol regulatory element binding proteins (SREBPs) pathway. METHODS Using C57BLKS/J (db/db) mice as model and C57BLKS/J (db/m) mice as normal control, the mechanism of 1, 2.5 and 5 g/kg YSTLF improving abnormal lipid metabolism of db/db mice was investigated by determining the liver coefficient, the contents of serum total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL), observing steatosis and lipid accumulation in liver tissue of mice, detecting the protein expressions of SREBP-1 and SREBP-2 as well as mRNA transcription levels of Srebp- 1c, Srebp-2 and their downstream lipid metabolism-related target genes (Fasn, Acc1, Scd5, Fads1, Hmgcr, Dhcr24, Insig-1, Fdps) in liver tissue of mice. Using low-fat cultured human liver cancer cell HepG2 as an in vitro cell model for abnormal lipid metabolism, and 25-HC (SREBPs inhibitor, 10 μmol/L) as the control, the effects of 125, 250 and 500 μg/mL YSTLF on protein expressions of SREBP-1 and SREBP-2 as well as mRNA transcription of SREBP-1c, SREBP-2 and their downstream lipid metabolism-related target genes were investigated to verify the mechanism in vitro. RESULTS 1, 2.5, 5 g/kg YSTLF significantly reduced the levels of TC, TG and LDL, the percentage of lipid droplet-positive region in liver tissue and liver coefficient, significantly down-regulated protein expressions of Pre-SREBP-1, n-SREBP-1, Pre-SREBP-2 and n-SREBP-2, and mRNA transcription of Srebp-1c, Srebp-2 and their downstream target genes in liver tissue, while significantly increased HDL level, with statistical significance (P<0.05 or P<0.01). In the cell experiment in vitro, the expressions of the above-mentioned proteins and genes in the cells treated with YSTLF at 125, 250 and 500 μg/mL for 24 hours were consistent with those in the animal experiment; there was no significant difference in the expressions of the above-mentioned proteins and genes between inhibitor control group and 250, 500 μg/mL YSTLF groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS YSTLF can regulate the expression of transcription factor SREBPs, so as to inhibit the high expression of fatty acid and cholesterol synthesis-related genes, promote the degradation of TC and TG, improve the abnormality of lipid metabolism and inhibit lipid accumulation, thus playing the role of lipid-lowering.
10.Predictive analysis of the number of hospitalized patients with acute pancreatitis based on time series model
Xinyi ZENG ; Xiao PAN ; Huan XU ; Han ZHANG ; Huifang XIA ; Xiaomin SHI ; Lei SHI ; Yan PENG ; Xiaowei TANG
Chinese Journal of Pancreatology 2023;23(4):251-256
Objective:To predict and analyze the number of acute pancreatitis (AP) inpatients based on time series model, and to explore the predictive efficiency of the model.Methods:Clinical data of AP inpatients in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 2014 to December 2019 were collected. R software was used to collect the time series of AP inpatients, and the trend and seasonal characteristics of AP inpatients from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed. Furthermore, the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was established through stationarity test, model ordering and model testing steps, and the best selected model was used to predict the monthly number of inpatients in 2019 to verify its prediction efficiency.Results:A total of 3 939 AP patients were included in the study. The most common etiology for AP was cholestrogenic (48.2%), followed by hyperacylglyceremia (36.3%). The peak age of hospitalization was from 40 to 60 years old. Time series analysis showed that the number of AP inpatients increased year by year. The highest peak of the disease was from February to March, followed by September to November; and there was seasonal variation and the incidence was relatively small in summer. The established original training set sequence did not pass the stationarity test ( P=0.061), so the ARIMA model was established after it was transformed into a stationarity sequence by first-order difference. According to the criterion of minimum AIC value, ARIMA(2, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the best model. The model was used to predict the number of AP inpatients in 2019, showing that it could better fit the trend of onset time and had good short-term prediction effect. The mean root error and absolute error were 6.8790 and 4.7783, respectively. Conclusions:The number of AP inpatients increases year by year with seasonal changes. ARIMA model is effective in predicting the number of AP inpatients and can be used for short-term prediction.


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